ISO-NE: Resource Mix -- Oil At 6% Vs Canadian Hydro At 3% -- February 18, 2025

Locator: 48580ISONE.

Energy:

• Texas has a "demand" problem.
• New England as a "supply" problem.

Despite wind providing as much energy as ever for New England, ISO-NE is still relying on oil at highest levels I've seen in some time. An astounding 6% of the resource mix is attributable to oil. Assuming "hydro" is not a limiting factor, my hunch is oil is very, very cheap compared to what Canada is charging New England for their "clean" energy.  Oil, at 6%, represents twice the resource mix compared to clean energy, "hydro" at 3%. Wow. They can't complete that Constitution pipeline fast enough!

Link here.

Winter Not Yet Over In New England -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48480ISONE.

Dr Phil: earlier this week Groundhog Phil predicted six more weeks of winter. 

A shout-out to Middlebury College!

 

 

Trump To Ring NYSE Bell -- ISO-NE Spikes -- Thursday -- December 12, 2024

Locator: 48385ISONE.

Not even president yet: 

• thanks Time magazine; says very nice things about Time magazine
• five people on state behind him: bookends --
• RFK, Jr, to his right, and Melania to his left
• Treasury secretary-designee behind Trump and got a shout-out from Trump
• Melania looks really, really comfortable, appropriately happy
• JD Vance next to Melania; to her left; Trump's daughter next to JD Vance
  
• Trump says nice things about ABC president who was in the audience
• in thirty seconds lists what President Biden has left him and the country
• off the cuff; extemporaneously, an impressive speaker
• mentions Macron / Notre Dame
• cutting taxes substantially; regulatory relief to those with $1-billion projects; 
• corporate tax cuts -- win-win for all
  
• to 15% if made in US
• otherwise, 21% if made outside of US, which is also a great tax rate; lower than current rate

ISO-NE: link here. Spiking to $500.

The cost of going green, link here:

New England ISO -- August 2, 2024

Locator: 48304ISONE.

I haven't taken a look at NE-ISO in a long, long time.

Yesterday, this headline:

The context:

Today:  wind/solar unhelpful.

ISO-NE: Level 1 Power Emergency -- June 18, 2024

Locator: 47835NE.

Unlike Texas, which has a demand problem, NE has a supply problem when it comes to residential (and probably, commercial) energy.

I followed "ISO-NewEngland" religiously for years and then quit out of boredom, once I understood "it."

Dan, apparently, kept in touch (with ISO-NewEnland). From twitter today: 

Connecting The Dots -- New England And Canadian Hydropower -- March 27, 2024

Locator: 46851NE.

 See this post. 

Now, see this WSJ article. See if you can connect the dots.

Truly amazing.

Bottom line: New England had no Plan B.

Time to watch a movie on TCM. 

Streaming:

Having talked to others and doing a lot of reading and a lot of surfing, I don't know if one can beat:

• ending all cable accounts;
• pick either YouTube, Hulu, or Hulu/Disney as your basic streaming service
• keep your Amazon Prime subscription (which includes Prime Video at no extra cost) with the Amazno fire Stick
• add Netflix, a la carte, if your spouse wants it. 

And, yes, Hulu gives you access to TCM. 

And now, recently announced, NFL awards Amazon Prime Video and Comcast's Peacock with "streaming-only games."

At no extra cost to get:

The National Football League announced two big games that will be available exclusively on streaming services this coming season—one on Amazon AMZN Prime Video and the other on Comcast CMCSA ’s Peacock.

The NFL said Tuesday that Amazon Prime, which already airs Thursday Night Football, will have the rights to stream a wild card playoff game in the 2024 season.

Without Peacock we might miss that one wild-card playoff game. We'll see. 

ERCOT Vs ISONE -- Early Morning, January 16, 2024

Locator: 46559ISO.

We've talked about this before:

• ISONE: has a supply problem. Self-inflicted.
  
• ERCOT: has a demand problem. A good thing. A very good thing.
  

ISONE.

• earlier this morning, January 16, 2024, winter storm Gerri.

ISONE, in MW:

• Supply/demand:
• Demand : 18,000 
• Capacity: 23,000

• Cost: $300 / MW
  

• Mix:
• Nat gas: 49%
  
• Net imports: 21% -- buying electricity from other ISOs
  
• Nuclear: 12%
• Hydro: 8% -- from Canada
  
• Oil: 6% -- oil contributing more than "renewables"
  
• Renewables: 4%

• Renewables:
• Refuse: 43%
• Wow ood: 30%
• Wind: 22%
• Landfill gas: 4%
• Solar 2%

• Wind:
• 22% of 4% is …. 0.0088 or 0.88%.
• 0.0088 x 18,000 = 158.

******************
Compare With Texas

• Supply/Demand
• Demand: 75,000 
• Capacity: 85,000
• in round numbers, 4X that of ISONE
  

• Wind and solar both off the chart (as in high supply).

• Mix:
• Nat gas: 49%
• Solar: 19%
• Wind: 9% -- will increase significantly as day wears on
  
• Coal: 16%
• No oil.
• No imports -- Texas is an independent ISO.
  

Weather -- Updates -- Battery Storage -- ISO-NE -- Road To New England -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46499NE.

Link here.

New England: the story hasn't changed.

• the energy imports are coming from Trinidad -- as usual
• wind: 17% of 5% is .... drum roll ...  0.00.85% --- not even one percent contribution to energy needs
• demand is currently exceeding forecast
• $82 / MWH
  

Maine installing more batteries. Link here. Cost: $100 millon-plus for two hours of storage; won't be ready until mid-2025.

Battery projects have key ratings, including the instantaneous power they can release and the duration they can do it for. At 175 megawatts of power capacity, Cross Town will be able to power 175,000 average homes. It’s also rated at 350 MWh, which means it could discharge that much energy for up to two hours.

Houston-based Plus Power has plans to begin construction this spring of the Cross Town 175 MW/350 MWh battery storage installation at the Gorham Industrial Park in the town of Gorham. When completed by mid-2025, it will be one of the largest energy storage facilities in New England. The $100 million-plus project will feature 156 containers spread across five acres in the Gorham Industrial Park with lithium iron phosphate batteries inside. Plus Power is actively involved in the construction of 60 energy storage projects either already operating or in development across the US and Canada.

Everett Update -- It Gets Tiresome -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46498NE.

From December 7, 2023:

RBN Energy: pending closure of Everett LNG Terminal poses challenge for New England gas supply.

The Everett LNG import terminal, a mainstay of Boston’s gas grid, is expected to close by the end of May 2024, raising questions about future gas supply in New England. The terminal’s closure is closely tied to the imminent loss of its biggest customer, the 1,413-MW Mystic generating station — the region’s largest fossil-fuel plant. Constellation Energy, which owns both the Everett terminal and the Mystic power plant, has said it can’t keep Everett open next year when the Mystic plant closes unless another gas purchaser takes its place. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll address the impacts of Everett’s potential demise on New England in the short term and on regional gas supply during future polar vortex events.

The fate of the Everett terminal (red diamond in Figure 1) is complicated because it’s one of the only facilities on the East Coast that can accept LNG from giant tankers and regasify it for local use. In addition to the Mystic generating station (yellow triangle), the terminal is also connected to the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (lavender line) and Algonquin Gas Transmission (green line) systems — the primary conduits for gas piped in from the Marcellus/Utica — which feed about 12,000 MW of gas-fired power and provide gas for heating, cooking and other residential and commerciaal purposes. Constellation, an Exelon subsidiary, decided to close the Mystic facility shortly after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) denied a complaint challenging ISO-New England’s (ISO-NE) planning process for replacing the Boston-area facility.

Figure 1. Everett LNG Import Terminal, Mystic Generating Station, and Key Regional Pipelines.

Source: RBN 

Updates

Two links:

• https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2023/11/holy-mackerel-quite-story-massachusetts.html

• https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1744525638659432870

DE Raises Dividend; Used Car Prices -- DEFLATION -- December 7, 2023

Locator: 46247B. 

A day that will live in infamy: GOP wants to hand over Ukraine to Putin. EU maintains the moral high ground.

Initial jobless claims:

• 220K -- exactly as forecast (222K)
• market: not spooked; up slightly after numbers released 
• later: market must have loved the numbers; pre-market, DOW up 107 points; Nasdaq up almost 100 points
• AAPL is now nicely green
  

Nearshoring (used once before on the blog - by the way, note that Nvidia and Taylor Swift are both mentioned at that post):

• imports from Mexico now exceed those from China
• positive for UNP, other duopoly railroads
• Mexico: 2-day rail; 16%
• China: 20-day shipping; 14%

EVs: there, they said it, the fad is over. The big story: how will F, Gm, Stellantis manage?

• Luxury cars. Period. Dot. Link here.
  
• Nikola: the company is raising more money. The stock is plunging. Barron's.
  
• Tesla: smaller Model 2 could be coming out in full production next summer; Austin, TX, first; then, a new Mexico plant (not "New" Mexico, but "new" Mexico); link here.

Transitory: all that angst about "used car inflation." It's all over. It's now "used car deflation." November prices:

• down almost 6% from one year ago: deflation by definition
• down 2% from last month: deflation by definition
• and I drive past dealerships, the lots are beginning to fill up with new cars

Pipelines: mountains of troubles

• Mountain Valley: I'm beyond tired of faux environmental protestors; update in past 24 hours here;
  
• TransMountain: regulators made the right decision; pipeline company should have hired the Boring Company; the company said it was about "time" -- in fact, it was about cost -- but not to worry; Canadian taxpayers on the hook. Nice map here.
  

XOM: for the archives, Venezuela - Guyana issue on the front burner for huge oil company. XOM is now producing upwards of 700,000 bopd from Guyana (needs to be fact-checked)

NFL:

• TNF on Amazon: Patriots vs Steeler
  
• FCS: semi-finals starting tomorrow night; through Saturday
• new ranking just before semifinals begin: SDSU (1); Montana; UAlbany; USD (4); NDSU (5); Idaho; Furman, Villanova. 
• brackets and schedule here; Montana tomorrow (Friday) night; the Dakota games Saturday;
  

PGA:

• reigning Masters Tournament champion who said he would never leave the PGA, is leaving the PGA.

Thoughts on investing: link here.

• personal investing: fully invested as of yesterday; new money next week;
• I removed TMO from my bucket; never started a position; it ran counter to my investment plan
• will sell my very, very, very small position in WBD -- it served its purpose; now time to get out

McDonald's: to shift into its fastest-growth period in history. Are folks paying attention?

Of the new restaurants, 900 will be in the U.S., and the other 1,900 will be international, company operated and franchised stores in Canada, Germany, the U.K. and Australia. An additional 7,000 stores will open internationally that are operated by licensees, the Associated Press reported, with more than half of those store in China. Link here.

AbbVie: nice dividends, getting bigger. 

Amazon: Cramer's guest last night. Incredible story.

Speaking of Cramer: he needs to spend a bit of time in the tanning booths; he is starting to look like a white Al Roker. Cramer: cadaverous.

DE: raises dividend.

Crime Story: best off its genre ... ever? Link here.

How's that for a Thursday morning lineup! LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.21.

Sunday, December10, 2023: 163 for the month; 163 for the quarter, 733 for the year
39713, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dudley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-2H, 
38255, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-8,

Saturday, December 9, 2023: 161 for the month; 161 for the quarter, 731 for the year
38256, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-9,

Friday, December 8, 2023: 160 for the month; 160 for the quarter, 730 for the year
31770, conf, BR, Ivan 5-1-29UTFH,

Thursday, December 7, 2023: 159 for the month; 159 for the quarter, 729 for the year
39308, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-9,

RBN Energy: pending closure of Everett LNG Terminal poses challenge for New England gas supply. Archived.

The Everett LNG import terminal, a mainstay of Boston’s gas grid, is expected to close by the end of May 2024, raising questions about future gas supply in New England. The terminal’s closure is closely tied to the imminent loss of its biggest customer, the 1,413-MW Mystic generating station — the region’s largest fossil-fuel plant.

Constellation Energy, which owns both the Everett terminal and the Mystic power plant, has said it can’t keep Everett open next year when the Mystic plant closes unless another gas purchaser takes its place. WOW. Is anyone paying attention?

In today’s RBN blog, we’ll address the impacts of Everett’s potential demise on New England in the short term and on regional gas supply during future polar vortex events.

Maine Voters Reject State Takeover Of Private Utility Companies -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46039MAINE. 

Updates

November 12, 2023: link here.

Original Post 

Before we get to the rates, let's look at another "clown world." Waiting in line at midnight to re-charge one's Tesla in Burbank, CA.

Link here.

This appears to be an overall average, not just residential, but it's not clear. 

The EIA says the average retail rate across the US is 12.36 cents / kWh.

These four charts are from the first link above.

Change, descending: note -- 

• Massachusetts rate increased almost 14% y/y and Rhode Island, at 12% was a close second.
• Reason? Link here.

Price, descending: note -- 

• outliers: Hawaii and Alaska; ignore
• of the top eight, excluding the outliers, six were in New England
• the seventh was almost New England -- New York
• the third was California

Price, ascending: note -- 

• least expensive: Louisiana
• of the lowest nine, five were in the South or Deep South
• of the lowest nine, two were on the west coast
• frustratingly, in this data base, ND can no longer claim really, really low rates; now near the national average (insert sad face here); if accurate -- blame wind / solar
  

Price -- New England: note -- 

• Maine has the lowest rates in New England;
  
• Maine is in the midst of a major change in regulating electric rates in off-year election, November 7, 2023
• Maine's rate actually decreased -- albeit negligibly -- y/y.
  

Holy Mackerel — Quite A Story — Massachusetts — LNG — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45968LNG.    

 

No e-mail access.

Link here.

• The future of Massachusetts’ Everett LNG import terminal is in limbo.
• the Mystic Generation Station, the power plant that takes the bulk of Everett's gas, will shut down in May 2024 — six months from now.
• the LNG terminal owner is looking to find a replacement buyer for the gas.

From earlier this year:

When the clock strikes midnight just over a year from now, it will be lights out for the state’s largest power plant, the Mystic Generating Station in Everett. 

It might not be the only major piece of New England’s energy infrastructure to go. 

Mystic’s demise means the Everett LNG terminal next door faces a precarious future. Both are owned by the same company, Constellation Energy. 

Mystic is also the liquefied natural gas terminal’s biggest customer by far. And both are currently running thanks to an electric ratepayer subsidy that ends on May 31, 2024. 

Everett is now the longest-operating LNG import terminal in the country. 

Elsewhere, US ports have been exporting liquefied natural gas, not bringing it in. 

Everett was the only one to receive LNG shipments during the past winter as global demand — driven in part by Europe weaning itself off Russian gas — drew shippers to more lucrative markets. 

Everett’s shipments could soon end, too, if Constellation determines it’s not commercially viable. The 52-year-old terminal has been considered a linchpin for the region’s gas distribution system, particularly on chilly days when the two main pipelines into New England get maxed out. 

Not only does Everett keep Mystic’s electric turbines going, it’s also a backup for the Algonquin and Tennessee pipelines and provides much of the LNG that utilities store at various tanks around the region.

The road to New England. 

More from the linked article:

The terminal’s fate could become the latest flashpoint in New England’s ongoing debate about shifting away from fossil fuels. Move too slowly, and we fall short of our aggressive goals to reduce carbon emissions. Move too quickly, and we risk ending up in the dark or feeling the chill. 

Consider that natural gas heats roughly half of the homes in Massachusetts. Sure, policymakers would like electric heat pumps to replace our gas-fired furnaces. But those ultimately rely on gas, too: For now, at least, about half of our region’s electricity comes from natural gas-fired plants like Mystic.

Is “bailout” one or two words?

Holy Mackerel! One Of The Worst "Reports" Ever -- February 25, 2023

Link here.

Updates

Later, 6:04 p.m. CT: it's slightly worse. Pricing is now up to $185; oil is at 8%; and, coal remains at 3%. Renewables, overall, 4% of resource mix, and wind 3% of the renewable mix; 0.03 and 0.04 = 0.12% of total resooource mix provided by wind.

Original Post

And not even using that much electricity in the big scheme of things.

Wait Until The Wind Turbines Quit Turning — February 3, 2023

Updates

 

February 4, 2023: I don't recall seeing this before -- oil saves the day in New England -- natural gas is running about $2.50 -- amazing.....

The price went to $500 / MWH overnight.

Original Post

Boston: -8. Wind chill: -42. — Midnight, February 4, 2023.

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/maine-braces-60-wind-chills-arctic-blast-forecast-northeast-rcna68950.

If there was any doubt about just how brutal Friday's conditions were in New England, look no further than New Hampshire's Mount Washington Observatory, where a wind chill of minus 101 degrees was recorded. 

And it's hardly an isolated case. 

Much of New England is dealing with a dangerous blast of winter. 

And a large swath of the nation, from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, and from the Mid-Atlantic to the U.S.-Canada border is facing extreme weather, too, as blizzards, snow squalls and hurricane-force winds were reported. 

In Southwick, Massachusetts, just outside Springfield, a storm is blamed in the death of an infant who was killed when winds knocked down a tree that fell and struck the vehicle the baby was in. The 23-year-old mother of the infant sustained serious injuries. 

Wind chill, a figure that represents the feels-like temp, reached the triple-digit mark at the nonprofit observatory in North Conway, New Hampshire, at 5:09 p.m., as wind gusts topped 100 mph.

Cold -- And Expensive -- In New England, New York -- February 3, 2023

Link here.

Link here.

**********************
Happy Valentines Day

Here We Go -- ISONY -- Cold -- Natural Gas -- February 3, 2023

Link here.

ISONY.

New England -- February 2, 2023

Link here.

Meredith Angwin seems to be a "straight shooter," as they say. 

Link here.

Big Stories Going Into The New Week -- January 16, 2023

Davos: except for this one time, I have no plans to mention Davos again this week. 

Natural gas: my brother-in-law called me earlier today to tell me that their natural gas prices are surging in California. Their most recent monthly statement was three times what they usually pay. This was predicted back in December, 2022. 

ISO NE: well, this is strange. After a long period of "reasonable prices,” all of a sudden ISO NE spikes despite relatively low demand. Link here. Prices are slightly higher on Long Island (ISO NY) but nothing close to what's going on in NE tonight.

***************************
First Big Story of the New Week

China's population.

Peter Zeihan discussed this in his The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning, published June 14, 2022. 

Link here.

From CNBC: 

This has been a frequent topic on the blog. For example, see this post.

ISO NE -- Snapshot In Time -- January 3, 2023

Renewable energy and wind as sources for electricity generation, this evening:

Percent of electricity generated by renewable energy: all of 5%!

Percent of renewable energy generated by wind: only a paltry 16%!

So, from all sources, wind provides (0.16 * 0.05) = 0.008 or 0.8%. 

Zeropointeightpercent. 0.8 percent. 

Not even one percent tonight. 

ERCOT: My Electricity Statement -- December 22, 2022

We only have electricity, no natural gas. This is our only monthly utility bill.

********************
Elsewhere

New Hampshire:

• set to double:

• EnergySage:

Connecticut:

• EnergySage:

*******************
New Hampshire

From the New Hampshire link above:

One of the state’s major utilities is set to double the price of electricity in August, and it’s likely other utilities will be forced to raise their prices, too. The price hikes are being driven by projected high costs of natural gas.

In a Monday filing with the Public Utilities Commission, Liberty Utilities proposed increasing the per kilowatt hour price of electricity from 11.11 cents, the rate in effect from February to July of this year, to 22.23 cents starting in July.

That means a typical household would see a 47 percent increase in its electric bill, according to consumer advocate Don Kreis. (Other charges on the bill would remain unchanged.) A household currently paying $150 per month would see their electricity increase to $220 per month.

“I think people are really going to feel this in their pocketbooks. It’s going to be a very unpleasant winter for everyone in New Hampshire,” said Kreis, adding that low prices for natural gas have lulled the state and region into complacency over the last decade.

Those low prices have evaporated, with some natural gas prices reaching $8.78 per million British thermal units in May, the highest they’ve been since 2008. Projections show that cost more than tripling to $30 per mmBtu.