Monday, December 28, 2020

The Incredible Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- The WPX Blue Racer Wells -- December 28, 2020

This page won't be updated; these wells are tracked here

I don't care what "they" say, the Bakken wells are simply incredible. Here's another one. This well produced over 300K bbls crude oil in seven months.

  • 36504, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HD, Mandaree, first production, 3/20; t--; cum 65K over 61 days; cum 302K 10/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A Musical Interlude

Note: a reader has rightly corrected me -- the last real cowboys are the oilfield workers, to include the truckers. But I'm leaving the video up.

Last of the Cowboys, Tony Justice

The CLR Holstein Federal Wells Have Been Updated -- December 28, 2020

This page will not be updated. These wells are tracked here

Great news! #33536 is back on line and maintains great production. This is an incredibly good pad.

The well:

  • 33536: Holstein Federal 16-25HSL; 2,221, t1/19; cum 243K 10/10; off line 2/20; remains off line 7/20; back on line, 8/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

An Interview With Linda Ronstadt

So I don't lose it:

The Four Wells Waiting To Be Fracked On The Enerplus "Precipitation" Pad Have Been Fracked -- December 28, 2020

This page will not be updated. These well are tracked here. Since they have just been fracked we won't know for a month or two how older, neighboring wells were affected.

The four wells on the Enerplus "Precipitation" pad have been fracked. Nothing unusual about the fracks: about 9 - 10 million gallons of water; 85% water by mass.

The "Precipitation" pad wells that have just been fracked:

  • 35800, drl/NC-->conf, Enerplus, Frost 149-93-07A-12H-TF-LL, 33-025-03630, Mandaree, first production, 10/20; 8K; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 7.8 million gallons of water; 82.4% water by mass;
  • 35801, rig on site (11/19)-->drl/NC-->conf, Enerplus, Hail 149-93-07A-12H, 33-025-03631, Mandaree, first production, 10/20; 14K; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 8.1 million gallons of water; 84.8% water by mass;
  • 35802, drl/NC,-->conf, Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H, 33-025-03632, Mandaree, first production, 10/20; 13K; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 8 million gallons of water; 84.5% water by mass;
  • 35803, drl/NC-->conf, , Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H-TF, 33-025-03633, Mandaree, first production, 10/20, 13K; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 7.9 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass;

Hooking Up A Dolly

A reader asked about minimum weight and height requirements for a truck driver. 

See this video and advance to 4:25 to see the strength required. 

Coal - China -- December 28, 2020

Link here.

China is attempting to ration its power, but bitcoin mining's unquenchable thirst for high power use is now being threatened by China's standoff with Australia, frozen wind turbines—and Russia's own short supply of coal—that has left sailors and crew stranded at sea for months

And China hopes to be off fossil fuel by 2060. LOL. 

In a sensible world, the US would be transporting a gazillion tons of coal to China. But the environmentalists are now in charge.

Bitcoin's Intense Energy Requirements -- December 28, 2020

Link here.

Coal prices in China have risen over the last month as China continues to block coal carriers from entering Chinese ports—and it's causing more than just residential and industrial energy shortages and blackouts.

China's Bitcoin mining is now under siege.

China is attempting to ration its power, but bitcoin mining's unquenchable thirst for high power use is now being threatened by China's standoff with Australia, frozen wind turbines—and Russia's own short supply of coal—that has left sailors and crew stranded at sea for months.

In fact, Bitcoin miners could end up taking the brunt of the rationing, and China hosts most of the world's top bitcoin miners.

And that makes sense because Bitcoin is extremely electricity-intensive, with just a single transaction consuming the power equivalent of as much as one U.S. household does for 23 days, with the carbon footprint of about 54,563 hours of YouTube video watching.

Bitcoin is tracked here.  


Futures, 8:00 p.m. CT, Monday night, December 28, 2020. 


Pardon the interruption: A reader suggested that it's just a matter of time before nations will require evidence of vaccination before allowing travel into their country. Now from Macrumors:

Los Angeles County residents who receive a COVID-19 vaccination are able to add a digital record of their vaccination to the Apple Wallet app

Now, back to the original post

How many television sets did you have in your house when you were growing up?

We had one. We had one television set in our home when I was growing up. For many years it was "black and white" and the one network (yes, one network) signed off at midnight, with a a waving flag and the National Anthem" and one of the "count-down clocks" with a voice-over thanking us for tuning in (as if we had a choice of networks) and reminding us the network would be back "on" in the morning. KUMV was an NBC network. KUMV: K-upper Missouri valley.

I was reminded of that when I visited our daughter's home in Portland, OR. She had not one television set in her home. However, with the four adults there:

  • four iPhones, including the newest model for one; monthly data account for each;
  • two large-screen Apple Mac desktop sets; both connected to the internet;
  • two iPods -- older versions never used any more but still functional;
  • two MacBook Air laptops; both fairly recent vintage; both connected to the internet;
  • one iPad; brand new; connected to the internet;
  • one Apple watch; an older model;

Now, as an investor, did your parents invest in the company that manufactured that one television set that sat in your home where you grew up? Was there a monthly cable charge for that television set with one station? LOL. Was Roku ($30/monthly); Netflix ($30/monthly); HBO ($30/monthly) available? LOL.

LOL. Investing in the 1950's. LOL. 

Also note: one can buy a television set for less than any one of the Apple items listed above.  

Oh, by the way, did the company that manufactured your television set in 1956 also have plans to manufacture a driverless EV?

Just saying.

Apple Caviar

Coming soon to an Apple Store near you

Russian company Caviar, known for making luxury variants of popular tech gadgets, today announced that it will be releasing custom AirPods Max plated with "pure gold" for the high price of $108,000 at some point in 2021.

US Virgin Islands And Corky

Santa Claus Rally Day 4 Eve; The Neo-Liberal Larry Summers -- "Let Them Eat Cake" -- December 28, 2020

Can you say "rally continues"?

What about "Rally Warp Speed"?

Or "helicopter money"?

US House votes to sent "each" American $2,000. The bill now goes to the US Senate with the president's support. This could happen overnight if "the turtle" was not in charge. LOL.  

The "Santa Claus Rally" is tracked here

Ignore today's market chatter: these are the only charts that matter. North Dakota and South Dakota still lead the nation in number of cases per capita. Herd immunity pending? North Dakota crosses the 12% threshold; South Dakota just under 12%.

Futures for tomorrow: futures have held gains today; futures up slightly for tomorrow.

No New Permits -- And Nothing Else Either -- December 28, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1356675038

No new permits

Nothing else. Period. Dot. Nothing. Nada.

AAPL -- Surging In The Last Hour Of Trading -- Day 3 Of The Santa Claus Rally -- December 28, 2020

Below a gain of $5.00 all day. In the last hour, moved quickly to a gain of $5.20/share. 

Microsoft up 1% today, just saying.

Amazon -- Day 3 Of The Santa Claus Rally -- December 28, 2020

Shares are up almost 4% today; up $123/share. That's not the share price ($123); that's the increase in share value ($123). LOL. AAPL was up less than $5/share today. 

Anyway, this bit of trivia.

  • Every "White House" has its own in-house "general counsel," which I assume is fancy talk for shyster lawyer.
  • I assume the "White House general counsel" is the president's lawyer when it comes to non-family interests. I don't know who President Trump's White House lawyer is; he probably goes through them as often and as quickly as he goes through chiefs of staff. 

But I digress.

  • Apparently Joe Biden has named his "White House general counsel."
  • That individual has a brother.
  • That brother was just hired by ... drum roll ... Amazon. 

Did I mention that Amazon was up $123/share today? 

Big, Big User Of Electricity?


Los Angeles Port

Special segment on CNBC. Maybe we will see the video later. Regardless, I doubt anything new. From where are all those container ships coming? China.

  • record year of volume (121 years)
  • trade imbalance is an issue (MSNBC host unhappy with that trade imbalance)
  • choke point: long pole in the tent -- digitization to coordinate trains and trucks coming out of LA port and Long Beach port; 
    • talking head did not mention EV trucks, but that's another huge game-changer;
  • container shortage (turnaround time doubling in some cases)

Who loves China? Joe and Hunter. 

Hillary and Valerie "born in Shiraz, Iran" Jarrett had Iran.

Joe and Hunter have China.

Now, seriously, China .. Iran .. China .. Iran .. China .. Iran .. China .. LOL.

The best thing Trump ever did for investors? Held Hillary at bay to let Biden in. LOL.

The Gerald Desmond Bridge

Huge. Opened in October, 2020.

Many links. Here's one.

After nearly 20 years of planning and seven years under construction, the $1.5 billion Gerald Desmond Bridge replacement connecting Terminal Island with the Long Beach mainland is finally opening. 

The bridge, which is set to open October 5, 2020, promises to be more than just a new-and-improved vital artery for a huge slice of the nation’s imported cargo truck traffic.

Its higher clearance above one of the main channels at the Port of Long Beach will eventually allow bigger cargo vessels into two of the port’s major terminals

And the bridge is poised to emerge as a major attraction in its own right, remaking the Long Beach skyline.

“This is a bridge of national significance that will have a positive impact on the national economy and the local economy,” said Mario Cordero, the Port of Long Beach’s executive director, which, with the California Department of Transportation, led the replacement bridge project.

By the way, I would comment on the California homeless and the new bridge but that would be a huge digression. 

Santa Claus Rally -- Day 3 -- 2020

The Santa Clause rally is tracked here

I haven't checked but I think all three major indices hit all-time records earlier this morning. Maybe the Dow didn't, I don't know. A quick look suggests it hit an all-time intra-day high at 30,525. If true, and someone will confirm that at some point, then that looks like the new number to watch (for the Dow): 30,525

A few days ago, it was suggested that the number to watch for AAPL was 138. What is it today? Up over $4/share. Up over $136.

This must be a really, really bad day for Steve Liesman. 

Does anyone seriously think Joe Biden is going to take away the punch bowl in his first two years? He's even backed away from his "mask mandate" and another nationwide lock down. He's not about to destroy one of the best economies ever for the rich and powerful.

One of the companies I invest in is because, a) it's a great company; b) it's makes a lot of money; c) it has a huge moat; and, d) it pays a huge dividend. Today, on a day the market is surging, the shares in this incredible company actually lost a about a percent (less than a percent, to be more specific). One has to ask why? Profit taking to buy other stuff. When you can buy shares in growth companies that appreciate at 1000% over a year, why buy value companies that pay 5%?

My feelings about renewable energy, EVs, Tesla, etc., is about the same way many people feel about fossil fuels or nuclear energy or fertilizer. But at some point, investors like me will throw in the towel.

My comments to a reader earlier this morning:

I think the tipping point for EVs for me came in the past month or so: 1) Biden's stolen election; 2) Ford e-Mustang; and, 3) Daimler building EV trucks in Portland, OR. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but Daimler Freightliner brags that it is the #1 Class 8 truck manufacturer in the US. 

Class 8 truck manufacturers in the US by volume:

Apr 20, 2020 — In 2018, Daimler's Freightliner division sold more than 90,860 Class 8 trucks. With a 36 percent U.S. Class 8 truck market share, Freightliner is also the market leader in the United States.

EVs: I think folks forget that presidents are change agents. Biden is too old to be a change-agent but he will surround himself with folks who are or want to be. There's nothing bigger than "climate change." Period. Dot. Even if it's a scam, and I think it is, there's nothing bigger than "global warming." 

Every mover and shaker from Warren Buffet to Jeff Bezos (that's going through the entire alphabet one time, "B" to "B") "believes in "global warming" or at least invests like they believe in "global warming." As an investor, to fight both Bezos and Buffet is crazy talk. And don't even get me started on another "B": Bitcoin. Or (air)BNB. 

A is for AAPL; B is for Bitcoin; C is for chips.

My hunch is that for investors in energy, this decade is going to be a huge. In energy, mojo-based investors can invest in companies like Tesla and Plug Power (hydrogen); and, for reality-based investors, they can pick carefully among the fossil-fuel companies. 

I just noticed on the crawler that on a day that the stock market is surging, and tech stocks are surging, and chip stocks are surging, Qualcom is down slightly. One word: Apple. One ticker symbol: AAPL. 

Where was I?

Oh, yes, investing in EVs.

From a "climate energy" site, the list of countries with targets to phase out ICEs:

  • Austria: no new ICE vehicles sold after 2020 (no typo; I don't know how hard and fast that "mandate" is)
  • Britain: 2040; hybrids excepted
  • China: end production and sales by 2040
  • Costa Rica: phase-out begins next week, 2021
  • Denmark: no date, but tax incentive in place since 2008
  • France: 2040
  • Germany: 2030; no registration of ICE vehicles by 2030:
  • India: 2030;
  • Ireland: 2030; incentives in place sine 2017
  • Israel: 2030
  • Japan: just announced -- pending update -- 2030 or something like that
  • Netherlands: 2030; phase-out begins 2025;
  • Norway: 2025; incentive program in place since 1990;
  • Portugal: announced but no specific date
  • Scotland: 2032
  • South Korea: targets
  • Spain: incentive plans
  • Taiwain: 2040; replacement of all government vehicles, public buses by 2030

Does anyone seriously think that Biden doesn't want to be on that list? My hunch: California goes first, and then Biden follows. California has already started: see this Forbes article just a month ago or so.

As I was saying, presidents want to be change agents. I'm not saying they made the right choice, and I'm not saying they succeeded but ....

  • Abe Lincoln: save the union
  • LBJ: civil rights
  • Ronald Reagan: "tear down this wall"
  • Obama: healthcare
  • Trump: make America great again
  • Biden: anyone think that the "LBJ-civil-rights" or "Obama-health-care" won't be the framework for the "Biden-save-the-earth" program? 

I think Biden served in Congress or in the administration of every-aforementioned president. His memory may be going, but he probably has more political savvy in his little finger than any other politician dead or alive. He beat Trump, didn't he?

I think the "Biden Energy Plan" will be much, much bigger than any of us realize. And unlike healthcare, where it was challenging for investors to figure out where to make money, the massive shift in energy emphasis will really benefit a lot of investors. The lower-middle class will likely disappear, going broke spending money on renewable energy but investors will be at the table, taking their money. Sounds cynical, but it's not meant to be that way. It seems to be reality.  

The only question: how "big" will Biden go in his first energy policy speech? My hunch: it will rival JFK's "putting-a-man-on-the-moon-by-the-end-of-the-decade-and-bringing-him-safely-home-again" speech.


My feelings about renewable energy, EVs, Tesla, etc., is about the same way many people feel about fossil fuels or nuclear energy or fertilizer. But at some point, investors like me will throw in the towel.

I've seen the movie. Several times. At least twice a year. It was released in 1964. 

Dr Strangelove.

Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love The Bomb.

Paraphrasing Jim Cramer, I'm not investing to change the world, I'm investing to leave Sophia a nice little portfolio.

The sequel: How I Learned to Stop Hating Renewable Energy and Love Batteries.

A Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Rainbow

Photo below from Sophia this morning in the US Virgin Islands on a catamaran for twelve.

The boat in the photo, I believe, is like the one on which Sophia will be living for a week. 

Speaking of pots of gold: the US House will vote on a stand-alone bill for a $2,000 stimulus check for "all" Americans, whether they need it or not.  What a great country. A country that takes 25% of your income in taxes and then returns 2% and we feel good. 

By the way, for many of those folks receiving $600 or $1200 or $2000 or $2400, they will turn around and put it into the stock market. We won't get the full amount but we will receive a significant amount. Last time, I gave the "credit card" stimulus money to my wife. Over Christmas holidays she said she finally spent the last of it while Christmas shopping. That's how long it lasted. I was impressed.

China Flu Watch: The Second Wave (Or Third Wave For Many) Seems To Have Peaked In The US -- December 28, 2020

Link here

For investors: ignore all the market action today, and pay attention to the only charts that matter.


Only One Well Coming Off Confidential List; Leads Off A Slow News Week -- December 28, 2020

Wow, look how effective the new vaccine is, link here. The vaccine has been out for only about one week and already cases are dropping over 10%. Amazing! Operation Warp Speed!

Even the number of California cases are falling precipitously, link here:

Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1356675038

One well coming off confidential list:

Monday, December 28, 2020:

Sunday, December 27, 2020:

  • None.
Saturday, December 26, 2020:
  • None. 

RBN Energy: the plan to pipe Chicagoland refined products south to central Tennessee. Archived.

Motor gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel need to be delivered in large volumes to every major metropolis in the U.S. 
While most big cities are well-served, some by multiple pipelines or a combination of pipelines and barges, others are more isolated and susceptible to supply interruption. Nashville, the home of country music, is one such place; so are Chattanooga and Knoxville to its east
All three Tennessee cities depend heavily on stub lines off the Colonial and Plantation refined-products pipeline systems as they work their way from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic states. When supplies on these pipes are interrupted — and they have been from time to time — these cities can experience shortages and price spikes, and be forced to turn to trucked-in volumes from Memphis and elsewhere. 
Today, we discuss a supply alternative now under development that will pipe motor fuels south from BP’s Whiting refinery in northwestern Indiana to a proposed Buckeye Partners storage and distribution terminal just west of Nashville.

Santa Claus Rally, 2020

Santa Claus Rally: last five trading days of December, and first two trading days of January. This year, December 24th was a half day of trading, so I will start on December 23, 2020.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Tuesday, January 5, 2021: full day -- last day of the seven-day Santa Claus rally.

  • the market bounces back very nicely
  • on top of that, WTI surges; over $50/bbl for the first time in a long time

Monday, January 4, 2021: full day

  • as predicted, all things being equal, I predicted the the market would surge on the first day of trading in 2021
  • the Dow is up almost 200 points shortly before the market opens
  • later: bummer -- market tanks; down one percent; tech led the sell-off; I absolutely did not expect this

Friday, January 1, 2021: markets closed

Thursday, December 31, 2020: full day -- day 6

  • nice day on Wall Street; most indices hit all-time highs;
  • AAPL down a bit;

Wednesday, December 30, 2020: full day -- day 5

  • early morning notes;
  • investors taking AAPL profits for various reasons;
  • on a day Ford delivers its first Mustang Mach-E, Tesla shares jump almost 5%;

Tuesday, December 29, 2020: full day -- day 4

  • Apple: on the cusp of a breakout;
  • US Senate being pressure to vote on $2,000 stimulus bill check;
  • four major indices hit all-time highs yesterday; likely to happen again today;
  • market takes a very, very slight pause after yesterday's huge rally;

Monday, December 28, 2020: full day -- day 3

  • commentary
  • Amazon;
  • news: Covid-19 bill passed; 
    • GS: the bill was signed earlier and is bigger than we forecast;
  • Biden agenda coming into focus; vaccine rollout continues;
  • Dow futures for Tuesday opening: up another 100 points;

Sunday, December 27, 2020: non-trading day; Monday eve:

  • 5:30 a.m.: Dow futures: 30,240

Thursday, December 24, 2020: half day -- day 2

  • Dow: 30,112

Wednesday, December 23, 2020: full day - day 1

  • Dow: 30,095

Individual Companies -- Dividend Announcements

Austin, TX: "Start-Up City" -- Accelerated Growth Strains Austin -- WSJ -- December 7, 2020

Link here

AUSTIN, Texas—A few years ago, some blocks of Austin’s South Congress Avenue featured a castle-themed wax museum and comic book shop, a neighborhood bar with $1 taco deals, an auto shop and, in season, a Santa Claus on horseback.

Then, as at so many other places in Austin, the construction cranes came.

Those blocks recently reopened with a strip of modern urban buildings with shops offering national brands fro Lululemon to Le Labo perfumes. The $2,000+ private membership club Soho House and an Herm├Ęs store are on the way. Office tenants include accounting and consulting firm Deloitte and private-equity firm Tritium Partners LLC.

The project’s developer, Andrew Joblon, said he saw a need for national luxury brands in a place where more well-paid executives were coming. To Brad Somers, a manager of the Twomey Auto Works that was there 28 years before its lease was terminated, it was another reminder that some longtime Austinites can’t afford their own city any more.

“It pains me to drive by it,” he said.

Austin has tried hard to hang on to its particular culture over years of booming growth and popularity, which have attracted money and energy to the city but also brought rising rents and traffic congestion.

But the pace of change is accelerating as companies and remote workers relocate to what they see as the next tech metropolis, in some cases fleeing California. “Austin is a startup city,” said J.D. Ross, a general partner at venture-capital firm Atomic, who moved to Austin just a month ago from the San Francisco Bay Area. “Everything is growing quickly. The airport is adding new gates every year.”

Austin is now one of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S., with a population of about a million, versus 675,000 in 2000.

Oracle Corp is the latest company to announce a headquarters move to Austin, after a flurry of software and venture-capital firms in recent months. An Apple Inc. campus and  Tesla Inc. factory are under construction on the city’s north and south sides.

Much more at the link.  

St Thomas -- US Virgin Islands -- Corky: Front And Center

China Energy Watch


  • December 25, 2020: China's energy dependence to grow despite major oil discoveries; a lot of bullish data in this article; while the world is still focused on defeating Covid-19, the Chinese economy has returned to growth; archived;


  • December 28, 2020: LNG imports rise 32% month-on-month on robust domestic demand. But up only 1.6% year-over-year; more relevant comparison.

Crude oil:

  • December 28, 2020:
    • Oman: Chinese imports surged 64% in November to a record high of 1.25 million bopd, from October; Oman: third-largest crude supplier in the month
    • Saudi Arabia returned to the top spot with a month-over-month increase of 43% (Nov over Oct);
    • overall, Middle East imports jumped 16% year-on-year; 47% market share compared with 44% last year
    • North America: volume increase -- 138% year-on-year; US crude imports jumped 155% (no typo);
    • US crude imports rebounded 122% month-over-month (November/October)
    • the volume was 7% lower than the record high of 952,254 bopd imported in September, 2020;
    • losers: Africa and South America

Winter Truck Driving -- Part 1 And Part 2 -- December 28, 2020

Whiteout! Part 1.

Whiteout! Part 2

MRO Chauncey-Winona Pad Update -- Antelope-Sanish

This page will not be updated. 

These wells are tracked here

Five wells went from "drl" status to "drl/NC" status. Wells that had been off line returned to production, 8/20.

Most interesting well of the ten wells:

  • 33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, t4/18; cum 583K 10/20; Three Forks B2; 45 stages; 10 million lbs, 73,742 bbls + 100,353 mcf (16,722 boe) = 90,465 bod in less than four months; off line 3/20; back on line 8/20; nice return to production; by the way, 73,742 bbls over 23 days extrapolates to 96,185 bbls over 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare