Random Note: The NDIC Confidential List -- August 20, 2019

1,494 oil and / or natural gas wells on the confidential list in North Dakota. Link here.

If 850 wells are drilled/completed/brought into production each year in North Dakota, 1,494 wells on the confidential list representate about two years worth of inventory.

**************************************

FWIW

Oilprice has still not reported that North Dakota set a new crude oil and natural gas production record in June, 2019. The story does not fit their "oil peak" narrative. LOL. 

A Reader Has A Question About The Confidential List -- August 29, 2018

Updates

August 30, 2018: a reader provided this link to the NDIC that might help answer the question --
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/webhelpfaq.asp.

All information furnished to the director on permits, except the operator name, well name, location, permit date, confidentiality period, spacing or drilling unit description, spud date, rig contractor, central tank battery number, any production runs, or volumes injected into an injection well, shall be kept confidential for not more than six months if requested by the operator in writing. The six-month period shall commence on the date the well is completed or the date the written request is received, whichever is earlier. If the written request accompanies the application for permit to drill or is filed after permitting but prior to spudding, the six-month period shall commence on the date the well is spudded.

Original Post 

A reader noted that two wells that came off the confidential list (after being SI/NC) and were producing (albeit very little) were now back on confidential list.

The reader asked:

Why does a well suddenly go on confidential status?

The Kennedy 5-8 and Miles 5-8 are all confidential as of today.

My reply, not ready for prime time:

1. In fact all of these wells are now on confidential status. They were once on the SI/NC list but are now back on the confidential list:

• 33220, 1,111, Miles 8-6H1, Dimmick Lake, t7/18; cum --
• 33221, 1,696, Miles 7-6H, Dimmick Lake, t7/18; cum --
• 33222, 1,173, Miles 6-6H2, Dimmick Lake, t8/18; cum -- 
• 33223, IA, Miles 5-6H, Dimmick Lake, t--;
• 33224, 1,133, Kennedy 8-31H1, Dimmick Lake, t7/18; cum --
• 33225, 1,592, Kennedy 7-31H, Dimmick Lake, t8/18; cum --
• 33226, 962, Kennedy 6-31H2, Dimmick Lake, t8/18; cum -- 
• 33227, A, Kennedy 5-31H, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum --

2.  One can still access the information for all these wells that was previously published, so all the old information is still there but any new information after today is now confidential.

3. I didn't check them all, but #33223 and #33227 did not yet publish their frack data; I think the rest did.

4. So my hunch is that CLR put all these wells back on confidential while before releasing frack data on the last two wells (#33223 and #33227). It's been my experience that this is quite common. Wells can only be on the confidential list for 6 months. In the old days when they drilled and completed all at once, the wells were usually on confidential from time of spud to time of completion because they could get everything done within 6 months.

5. Now, with the new rule that companies have two years to complete a well after first spud, they find it more important to put the wells on confidential list when they are getting ready to frack. There's not much information that is new to anyone with regard to drilling. However, everyone is trying different ways to frack, and it now makes sense to put the wells on confidential (or back on confidential) once they start fracking.

6. The rules regarding when the clock starts ticking may have changed with the other rule change (two years to complete) -- I don't follow the rules that closely. But I've seen this often and in fact, I have many examples on the blog where a well was confidential, then went to SI/NC, and then back to confidential.

7. "Teague" once said that wells couldn't do this but that was before the 2-year rule. That was just before I was voted off the island.

8. So, my hunch is that the last two wells being fracked (or already fracked -- I'll check FracFocus later -- I bet they are already fracked) are now on confidential, not wanting others to know what the completion strategy was. [Yes, I just checked FracFocus: #33227 was indeed fracked, 1/21/18 - 2/11/18. I assume #33223 has also been fracked.]

Why Are Not All Wells Put On The Confidential List In North Dakota? -- September 30, 2014

There was an e-mail discussion among a couple of us regarding an issue that has always perplexed me but not a big enough deal to really blog about ... until someone else noticed it and asked the question.

The post below is from my e-mail to a couple of other folks (all my stuff; no one else's -- so anything wrong is all my fault). It may or may not make sense to anyone else and it certainly isn't ready for "prime time" but it is what it is.

Here goes.

Why are not all wells put on the confidential list?

A writer sent in that question when he noted that the four (4) most recent KOG wells were reported way ahead of schedule (before the six months were up) and it turned out these wells were never on the confidential list.

I've always known a "few" wells were not on the confidential list, but never worried about it. This got me wondering. It turns out that up to 70% of permits/wells may not be getting placed on the confidential list. That means that of the 2,200 wells on the confidential list, there could be as many 3,500 or so locations being drilled or waiting to be drilled in the Williston Basin, North Dakota.

That makes sense because I've always thought based on # of permits issued/year divided by 12 months suggests that 200 - 210 wells should be reported each month; but yet it looks like about 160 - 175 wells actually "come off the confidential list."

The other wells are mixed in with the group of "producing wells that have been completed" that are also reported most days on the daily activity report. That group includes wells that were confidential and went to DRL status, and it also includes wells that were never on the confidential list.

Here was my answer to the individual who asked about wells not being placed on confidential list:

Two issues: a) how many permits are not put on confidential status; and, b) why?

1. One cannot simply go to the confidential list and assume the missing permit numbers were not put on the confidential list; some may have been on the confidential list and already reported and thus have come off.

However, if you take the most recent permits one can assume they have not been drilled yet.

So, I took the most recent 140 permits, and then plugged in / counted all the missing permit numbers. There were 99 permits "missing." The total came to 239 permits (140 + 99). It appears that 99 permits in this batch were not accounted for.

99/140 = 70.71%.

That means it is likely that as many as 70% of permits/wells are not on the confidential list at the time the application goes in. Of course, any point along the way, the operator can request the well be put on the confidential list.

2. It would be easier to request "confidential" at the time the application is filled out; there's a box in the upper right corner of the application -- form H1 --  requesting/not requesting confidentiality. The operator simply types in "yes" or "no."

So, the question is why would an operator not request "confidentiality." It does not cost anything; no additional fee, as far as I know. If there is, it would be nominal.

3. I think this is the answer. The state wants the industry to be as transparent as possible. The state would prefer nothing be confidential, but of course, that isn't going to happen. So, the state and the oil companies work together, come up with a compromise and agree that "confidentiality" is not just automatic.

There has to be a reason for granting confidentiality. You notice on the daily activity report that there is often a list of permits in which the state authorizes confidentiality.

My hunch is that the state does not automatically grant confidentiality. If an operator wants a well to be confidential, the state has to see a valid reason. Once you start getting to 26 wells in one section, and results of wells in that section and the surrounding sections are well known, it's hard to see the need for confidentiality. As it is, the state seems very, very liberal in granting "confidentiality."

4. But why don't the companies simply check "YES" anyway in the box? I think the risk is that it will slow down the process. If the company checks "YES" the permit won't be granted until the state has a chance to determine the need. Obviously if the permit is for a wildcat, no problem, or for a new formation. But if this is the 26th well in a given oil field, or even in the a given section, the state could really require a lot of paperwork explaining why the operator wants the well to be confidential.

*******************************

I don't want to be a dead horse, but with receipt of most recent comment (that most operators wait until the last possible moment to request confidentiality, let's look at the most recent 100 or so permits (as of September 29, 2014, yesterday, and then we can follow them longitudinally (Jane Smith has a much better database and confirms much of what was said up above):
29544: conf,
29543: conf,
29542: conf,
29541: conf,
29540: conf,
29539: loc, HRC, Tyrone, north of Williston, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29538: loc, HRC, Tyrone, north of Williston, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29537: conf,
29536: conf,
29535: conf,
29534: conf,
29533: conf,
29532: conf,
29531: conf,
29530: conf,
29529: conf,
29528: conf,
29527: conf,
29526: loc, EOG, Parshall; extremely well-known field; when will this go conf? [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29525: loc, EOG, Parshall; extremely well-known field; when will this go conf? [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29524: loc, OXY USA; Manning; extremely well-known field; when will this go conf?[December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29523: loc, QEP; Blue Buttes; extremely well-known field; [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29522: loc, Oasis; Missouri Ridge; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29521: loc, Oasis; Missouri Ridge; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29520: loc, QEP; Grail, extremely well-known field, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29519: loc, QEP: Grail, extremely well-known field, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29518: loc, Oasis; Missouri Ridge; should see change; [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29517: conf,
29516: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29515: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29514: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29513: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29512: loc; Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29511: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29510: conf,
29509: conf,
29508: conf,
29507: conf,
29506: loc, Whiting, Glass Bluff, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29505: loc, Whiting, Glass Bluff, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29504: loc, Whiting, Glass Bluff, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29503: conf, 
29502: loc, Oasis, Camp, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29501: loc, Oasis, Camp a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29500: loc, Oasis, Camp, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29499: loc, Oasis, Camp, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29498: conf,
29497: conf,
29496: conf,
29495: conf,
29494: conf,
29493: conf,
29492: conf,
29491: conf,
29490: conf,
29489: conf,
29488: conf,
29487: conf,
29486: conf,
29485: conf,
29484: conf,
29483: conf,
29482: conf,
29481: loc, a well-studied Brooklyn oil field; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29480: loc, a well-studied Brooklyn oil field; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29479: conf,
29478: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29477: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29476: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29475: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29474: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29473: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29472: conf,
29471: conf,
29470: conf,
29469: conf,
29468: conf,
29467: conf,
29466: conf,
29465: conf,
29464: conf,
29463: conf,
29462: conf,
29461: conf,
29460: conf,
29459: conf,
29458: conf,
29457: conf,
29456: conf,
29455, drl, Triangle, Williston, spud 9/26/14; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29454, drl, Triangle, Williston, spud 9/28/14; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29453, drl, Triangle, Williston, spud 9/30/14; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29452, conf,
29451, loc, QEP, Bear Den, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29450, loc, QEP, Bear Den, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29449: conf,
29448: conf,
29447: conf,
29446: conf,
29445: conf,
29444: conf,
29443: conf,
29442: conf,
29441: conf,
29440: conf,

105 wells

• 3: already on DRL status; unlikely they were ever confidential; DRL status means you can see the file
• 34: loc; did not request confidential status with permit
• 68: requested confidential status with permit 

1. The first thing I note is that most operators/more wells are put on confidential list with the application; the operators are NOT waiting to the last minute before they want to "hide" something

2. Very, very well-known fields; some of the very well-known operators don't ask to put the wells on confidential at the time of the application; the field is already well-known; it will be interesting to see if these wells ever go to CONF

3. I was only surprised by the Liberty Resources wells in McGregor not put on CONF; later I will take a look at the GIS map server to see if there is an easy explanation

4. In the big scheme of things, it seems rare for operators at this point in the Bakken not to put their wells on confidential status at the time of the application. Only after we follow these wells for awhile will we get a sense how rare it is for any well never to be on CONF status.

*************************

30 Sept 14
29555, conf,
29554, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29553, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29552, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29551, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29550, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29549, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29548, conf,
29547, conf,
29546, conf,
29545, conf,

Wells On Confidential Status, By Operator -- September 28, 2014

This list is not proofread or double-checked; errors probably exist; check the source if it's important to you. 

There is a tag at the bottom of the blog, "ConfidentialList." Back in June, 2011, there were 1,222 wells on the confidential list. Today there are almost twice that many wells on the confidential list. 

2,287 wells on the confidential list, September 28, 2014 (the list excludes the 20 SWD wells):

Abraxas: 7
American Eagle: 38
Anschutz: 1
Armstrong Operating: 1
Bakken Hunter: 3
Ballard Petroleum: 2
Baytex: 4
Burlington Resources: 129
Continental Resources: 276
Corinthian: 11
Cornerstone: 5
Crescent Point: 12
Cynosure Energy: 1
Denbury: 10
Emerald: 25
Enduro: 40
Enerplus: 60
EOG: 48
Fidelity: 13
Flatirons: 1
Fram Operaitng: 4
Gadeco: 2
Hess Bakken: 272
Halcon: 46
Hunt: 30
KOG: 38
Legacy: 22
Liberty Resources: 4
Luff: 1
Marathon: 93
MBI: 3
Mountain Divide: 6
Murex: 10
Newfield: 68
Oasis: 100
OXY USA: 23
Peregrine: 1
Petro Harvester: 3
Petro Hunt: 91
Petrogulf: 2
QEP: 90
Resonance Exploration: 1
Roff Operating: 1
Samson Oil and Gas: 1
Samson Resources: 22
SHD: 10
Sinclair: 8
Slawson: 101
SM Energy: 37
Solutions: 1
St Croix Operating: 1
Statoil: 114
Stephens Production: 1
Strata-X: 4
Strike Oil: 1
Texakota: 9
Thunderbird Resources: 8
Triangle: 18
Welter Consulting: 1
Wesco: 1
White Butte Oil: 2
Whiting: 56
WPX: 77
XTO: 171
Zargon: 2
Zavanna: 50

Random Update Of All Wells On Confidential List -- North Dakota -- August 7, 2014

Confidential wells, as of August 7, 2014: total - 2,232 (only oil and gas permits; does not include SWD wells). Data not double-checked. There may be errors.

Compare with list back in October, 2013. Some selected comparisons are in parentheses (October, 2013) below.

Abraxas: 11 (6)
American Eagle: 39 (24)
Anschutz: 1 (#28350)
Armstrong: 1
Bakken Hunter: 5
Ballard Petroleum: 3
Baytex: 4
BR: 116 (131)
CLR: 306 (282)
Corinthian: 13
Cornerstone: 5
Crescent Point: 12
Denbury: 7 (plus an additional SWD permit)
Emerald: 17 (9)
Enduro: 32
Enerplus: 55
EOG: 29 (43)
Fidelity: 12 (15)
Fram: 6
Gadeco: 2
Hess Bakkken: 250 (143)
HRC: 45 (100)
Hunt: 29
KOG: 44 (102)
Legacy: 26
Liberty Resources: 4
Luff: 1
MRO: 88 (80)
MBI: 1
Mountain Divide: 4
Murex: 9
Newfield: 65
Oasis: 92 (75)
OXY USA: 25
Peregrine: 1
Petro Harvester: 3
Petro-Hunt: 100 (95)
PetroGulf: 2
QEP: 87
Roff: 1 (#28571)
Samson Resources: 28
Sinclair: 10
Slawson: 96
SM Energy: 35
Statoil: 106 (141)
Strata-X: 4
Strike Oil: 1 (#23970)
Texakota: 9
Thunderbird: 8
Triangle: 12 (13)
True Oil: 4
Welter Consulting: 1

• #28388 -- this is their third permit in as many years; their 2012 well and their 2013 well were both dry

Wesco: 1 (#19217)
Whiting: 66 (77)
WPX: 77
XTO: 169 (wholly-owned subsidiary of Exxon Mobil)
Zargon: 2
Zavanna: 45 (27)
Zenergy: 0 (23) -- Zenergy sold its Bakken assets in late 2013.

Random Update Of Wells On Confidential List By Operator

On October 10, 2013, there were 2,137 wells on the confidential list.

Abraxas: 6
American Eagle: 24
Armstrong Operating: 2
Bakken Hunter: 8
Baytex: 4
Buffalo Hills: 1
Burlington Resources: 131
CLR: 282
Corinthian Exploration: 10
Cornerstone: 6
Crescent Point Energy: 8
Denbury Onshore: 2
Emerald Oil: 9
Enduro Operating: 8
Enerplus Resources: 58
EOG: 43
Fidelity: 15
Flatirons: 1
Flatland: 1
Fram Operating: 10
Gadeco: 1
GMX Resources: 8
Hess: 143
HRC: 100
Hunt: 23
KOG: 102
Legacy: 15
Liberty Resources: 1
Luff Exploration: 1
MRO: 80
Mountain Divide: 4
Murex: 8
Newfield: 72
North Plains: 4
Oasis: 75
OXY USA: 21
Petro-Hunt: 95
Petrogulf: 2
Prima Exploration: 1
QEP: 79
Resolute Natural Resources: 3
Samson Resources: 45
SHD Oil & Gas: 2
Sinclair: 6
Slawson: 77
SM Energy: 32
Statoil: 141
Stephens Production: 1
Strike Oil: 1
Texakota: 9
Triangle: 13
True Oil: 5
Wesco Operating: 1
Whiting: 77
Williston Exploration: 1
WPX: 74
XTO: 125
Zavanna: 27
Zenergy: 23

Disclaimer: there may be errors. I did this quickly and did not double-check. The numbers will not add up to the total number of wells on the confidential list because the confidential list includes a few salt water disposal wells which I do not track. On the other hand, some salt water disposal wells have slipped into the numbers above; for example I see there are a couple of salt water disposal wells among the CLR wells that are on the confidential list.

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Approaching 175 Per Month

Last year, the number of wells coming off the confidential each month seemed to be about 145. For the past few months, the number of wells coming off the confidential list is now approaching 175 per month.

In November, 2012, we will see a record of 181 wells coming off the confidential list (the previous record was 166, September, 2012). 

On September 20, 2012, there were 1,872 wells on the confidential list.
Less than a month later, October 11, 2012: there are 2,049 wells on the confidential list.

Confidential Wells By Company, Selected

OXY USA has 34 wells on the confidential list.
Newfield has 39 wells on the confidential list.
CLR has 253 wells on the confidential list. 
Whiting has 65 wells on the confidential list.
KOG has 94 wells on the confidential list. 
Oasis has only 38 wells on the confidential list.
Petro-Hunt, LLC, has 142 wells on the confidential list. 

NDIC Dockets

Early this summer, Newfield was fairly active at the NDIC hearing dockets, but OXY USA has had almost no activity even at the hearings in the past few montsh.

Wells On The Confidential List -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

There are 1,222 wells on the confidential list, up from 1,158 when last reported back in early May, 2011.
 
By month:

• For June, 2011: there are still about 30 wells to come off the confidential list in June, 2011.
• July, 2011: 92 wells will come off the list in July
• August, 2011: 79 wells will come off the list in August
• September, 2011: 93 wells will come off the list in September
• October, 2011: 91 wells will come off the list in October
• November, 2011: 78 wells will come off the list in November

By driller:

• Continental Resources has about 143 wells on the confidential list.
• BEXP has about 63 wells on the confidential list.
• Whiting has about 35 wells on the confidential list.
• Not all wells are put on the confidential list. 

If Rory wants to check/correct my figures, that will be much appreciated.

Wells On Confidential List -- North Dakota, USA

Not all wells in North Dakota are placed on the "Confidential List," but it sure seems to be the norm.

These are the number of wells on the confidential list for a select group of companies in the Bakken (number of active rigs in the Bakken):

• CLR (22 rigs): 147 wells on the confidential list
• EOG (10): 66
• BEXP (7): 50
• BR (5): 39
• WLL (15): 22
• HES: (11) 21

Note: number of rigs may have changed; these numbers are a few months old.

The total number of wells on the confidential list (January 17, 2011): 1,160.

ND Oil: Trends

History of Permits Granted and Wells Drilled
July, 2010, update on wells coming off confidential list

Note: 53 wells come off the confidential list in January, 2010.
Note: 55 wells come off the confidential list in February, 2010.
Note: 65 wells come off the confidential list in March, 2010.
Note: 42 wells come off the confidential list in April, 2010.
Note: 49 wells come off the confidential list in May, 2010.
Note: 50 wells come off the list in June, 2010.

It has been opined that the increase in wells coming off the confidential list early in 2010 was due to number of EOG wells that would have been reported earlier, but were delayed due to delay in fracking.

Note: 54 wells come off the confidential list in July, 2010.

I'm surprised we're not yet seeing a jump in number of wells coming off confidential list. In October, 2009, there were only 56 active rigs; in January, 2010, the number of rigs approached 90 rigs, and yet, the number of wells coming off confidential list in January, 2010, was 54, and the number of wells coming off confidential list in July, 2010, is 49. 

Note: 73 wells come off the confidential list in August, 2010.

Note: 68 wells come off the confidential list in September, 2010.

Note: Jumping ahead -- 103 wells come off the confidential list in December, 2010.

The jump in the number of wells in December is probably due to two reasons:

• Increased activity from record number of active rigs
• Companies like EOG don't frack during the winter

If EOG fracks a well in March, it can then be placed on the confidential list for six months, meaning it won't come off the confidential list until September. We should start seeing number of wells on confidential list increase in the fourth quarter of this calendar year and going forward.

*****

I am an eternal optimist so take the following with the proverbial grain of salt. I'm getting the feeling that 2010 could be a watershed year for the oil industry in North Dakota, the perfect storm one might say, but in this case, a very, very good storm, for these reasons:

a. Oil prices seem to be trending higher, but in an orderly fashion. Meanwhile, analysts predict demand for oil will outpace supply in 2010. More recent update from EIA, January 14, 2010.

b. The oil companies will continue to define the geology and the extent of the basin.  Particularly noteworthy is the "far east field" -- the Clear Water field bordering Ward County -- which EOG is aggressively pursuing. As of early January, 2010, EOG has 50 of 54 wells/permits in this field of 101 sections (the prolific Parshall field has 162 sections). [Note: both fields could be expanded over time. The Parshall field could be extended north and east. EOG is not the only producer interested in the Clear Water field; Hess was granted two permits in the Clear Water on December 16, 2009.

c. North Dakota had a record-breaking land lease auction, November, 2009. Producers and developers did not lease this land to watch the prairie grass grow. Record setting lease prices (up to $8,000/acre) for the February, 2010 land lease auction.

d. All major producers in the Bakken have announced a) an increase in their capital expenditure program; and, b) an increase in the number of rigs they will be operating.

e. Although a lot of consolidation that resulted from slump in oil prices in 2008 seems to be ending, there are still significant deals being made. The relationship between NOG (publicly traded) seems to be growing with Slawson (not publicly traded). XOM buys XTO. Denbury buys Encore.

f. Several major producers or exploration companies have recently concluded new share offerings: KOG, BEXP, NOG, raising cash for their 2009-2010 program. These companies are not raising cash just to invest in money market funds.

g. Current data suggests 20+ stage fracturing will become the norm in the Bakken.

h. It appears that more companies are drilling 1280-acre spacing wells.  Even EOG, historically drilling short laterals, now has applications in for long lateral wells. Compare head-to-head results, 640- vs 1280-acre spacing.

i. Time to complete a well has decreased significantly, which will result in at least two things: a) more wells being drilled in a calendar year; and b) less cost to drill. Some producers are drilling wells in 16 days; however, time to completion not that much shorter due to long time to complete fracture stimulation.

j. The US has adjusted to an unemployment rate of 10%.  The strength of the dollar has increased, and oil continues to rise in price (January, 2010).

k. Could the choke point for increasing oil production and getting oil out of the state be the pipelines? Although still lagging, the pipeline capacity to get the oil out of North Dakota has increased remarkably, and EOG's rail head to ship oil out by tanker went operational December 31,2009, about two months ahead of schedule. [Nice overview posted here, dated November 16, 2009.]

l. If an eco-pad with four wells on it actually works out, it's going to be quite a story. Can you imagine initial production (IP) numbers based on an Eco-Pad with four (4) laterals versus a single well with a single lateral?

*****

I think the biggest trend in "the Bakken" right now is multi-stage fracturing (remember, this was originally posted November 5, 2009). Examples abound but the history of Hess may be as good as any and better than most. It's hard to believe that only a year ago there was not a lot of talk about the number of stages of fracturing. All of a sudden, it seems, the number of stages of fracturing has become a hot topic of discussion. A few months ago, Halliburton announced a huge ($20 million) expansion in its complex east of Williston. And shortly after that, BEXP announced that 20-stage fracturing will become the standard. Discussion groups continue to bemoan the shortage of frac crews.

This site says we will soon see 32-stage fracturing, and it will not be long before operators/drillers could see 60-stage fracturing.

It also appears that producers are studying the best time to actually accomplish the fracturing. The timing may depend more on the finances/availability of frack crews/price of oil rather than simply fracturing immediately after the well has reached total depth. There were suggestions/rumors on message boards that EOG was studying the timing of fracturing. EOG has stated it is researching the optimum number of fracturing stages.

There may be a good example of this trend line. The Charlson 44-33H came off the confidential list today. Its IP was under 300 bopd, and yet two months later, its average daily production is over 500 bopd. So, the questions: when did they do the frac; and how many stages?

The Bakken Blog posts a wonderful review of multi-stage fracturing. Posted November 6, 2009.

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This may or may not be important in the future as a trend (cost and time to drill a horizontal Bakken well), but I don't want to lose the link. If you scroll to the top of that link, Slawson reports that it has put in a horizontal well in 16 days and for less than $3 million. The rule of thumb for a horizontal well in North Dakota: 30 days (it used to be 45 days) and $4 - 6 million.  [Note: since this was posted a long time ago, NOG and Slawson have strengthened their relationship.]

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The trend in prices paid for oil leases from the state of North Dakota can be found by clicking here. North Dakota state holds an auction every three months. The November 3, 2009, auction hit a record ($71 million vs $30 million in 1980).


Original post: November 5, 2009. Some of this page was updated: July 20, 2010.