Sunday, November 10, 2013

It Goes Without Saying, I Will Be Asking For This For Christmas ...

... and my younger daughter has probably already ordered it for me. LOL.

The iPad Commode Caddy is available at Hammacher Schlemmer for the incredibly low price of $99.99.

A Note to The Granddaughters

I am back into my "physics/quantum theory" phase. I thought I had gotten physics out of my system for a year or so having read several biographies, anthologies, histories of quantum over the past year, but it seems there was at least one more book to read: Freeman Dyson's Disturbing The Universe. I am not keeping up with the notes but I hope to eventually update the post.

As mentioned earlier, I had picked up this book some time ago, and vaguely recall "trying" to read, but found myself not interested. Now, having read all the other books recently (with very fond memories of Louisa Gilder's The Age of Entanglement).

I think I was turned off by Freeman Dyson's book, initially, by his occasional "preachiness." But for some reason, his musings on morality do not bother me. I think the secret was knowing more of the background of the men involved and  r e a d i n g   t h e   b o o k   v e r y   s l o w l y.

I have just completed chapter five of the Freeman Dyson book which was mostly a chapter on Richard Feynman. Dyson talks about the impact WWI had on the Europeans, suggesting that Americans did not experience a like experience until the Vietnam War. I understand what he was saying: WWI was the great turning point of history for the Europeans, just as the Vietnam was the great turning point of history for the United States. With a bit of reflection, one can argue this is not quite true, and the analogy is inadequate, but I understand what he was trying to say.

Chapter 5 ends with a story of Hans Bethe receiving a package from Japan in 1948. Hans Bethe had been at Los Alamos and was instrumental in building the bomb. By 1948 everyone knew the names of the personalities involved. Hans Bethe had taken as many Los Alamos physicists as he could to Cornell, Ithaca, New York and reassembled the team there.

In that spring of 1948 there was nother memorable event. Hans received a small package from Japan containing the first two issues of a new physics journal, Progress of Theoretic Physics, published in Kyoto. The two issues were printed in English on brownish paper of poor quality. They contained a total of six short articles. Thefirst article in issue No. 2 was called "On a Relativistically Invariant Formulation of the Quantum Theory of Wave Fields," by S. Tomonaga of Tokyo University. Underneath it was a footnote saying, "translated from the paper ... (1943) appeared originally in Japanese."

Hans gave me the article to read. It contained, set out simply and lucidly without any mathematical elaboration, the central idea of [quantum electrodynamics].

The implications of this were astonishing. Somehow or other, amid the ruin and turmoil of the war, totally isolated from the rest of the world, Tomonaga had maintained in Japan a school of research in theoreticl physics that was in some respects ahead of anything existing anywhere else a that time. He had pushed on alone and laid the foundations of the new quantum electrodynamics, five years before [the Americans] and without any help from the experiments [being carried out at Columbia University, where experimental physics was centered at the time].

He had not, in 1943, completed the theory and developed it as a practical tool. [To the Americans] rightly belongs the credit for making the theory into a coherent mathematical structure. But Tomonaga had taken the first essential step. There he was, in the middle of 1948, sitting amid the ashes and rubble of Tokyo and sending us that pathetic little package.
It came to us as a voice out of the deep.
On another note, Dyson provides the background to fire bombing of Hamburg and Dresden in WWII, the latter made "famous" by Kurt Vonnegut in Slaughterhouse-Five or The Children's Crusade.

It sounds strange, but is just very possible that all of this is made more poignant simply by having watched (twice) Notorious with Cary Grant and Ingrid Bergman the past two nights.

And re-reading the wiki biographical sketch of Grace Slick.

Bakken 101 -- A Closer Look At An Early EOG Well; Periods Of Production Variability

Earlier I posted the early EOG Bakken wells. I was curious to see the production history. Below are three periods of production for:
  • 16346, 1,800, EOG, Bartelson 1-3H, s9/26/06, t11/17/06, cum 422K 9/13;
For all periods, these are the columns
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Note: a pump was placed on this well in 2007, so the changes in production below are not related to a pump.

First period in early 2008 shows the decline rate:


This next period is late 2010 going into early 2011. There is a sundry report received in late 2010 suggesting that EOG was going to "clean out" frack sand from the well.


Finally, the third period that caught my eye, late last year. I did not see any sundry reports that might account for the production increase.


By the way: note that some flaring occurred during this period. There are at least two reasons that flaring occurs even if the well is hooked up to a natural gas gathering and processing system: a) the natural gas gathering / processing plant is saturated; and/or, b) the natural gas processing plant is "down" for routine maintenance. It is my understanding that oil companies are allowed flaring under such conditions. The only way to completely eliminate flaring when the processing plant is saturated/undergoing maintenance, is to shut in the well. There is no guarantee that a shut-in well will return to its former glory; shutting down a well, even temporarily, I am led to understand, could damage the well significantly.

A Perfect California Storm: One Or The Other, Or Both, Will Push Some Over The Brink

2014 looks to be pretty grim for many many folks in California, Florida, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson: a) health insurance premiums double for many; b) mortgage resets start to come due.

The ObamaCare story is well known (except, of course, to nominees for the 2013 Geico Rock Award), but this is a new story: mortgage resets that will start to come due next year.

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:
Some mortgage and credit experts worry that billions of dollars of home equity credit lines that were extended a decade ago during the housing boom could be heading for big trouble soon, creating a new wave of defaults for banks and homeowners.
That's because these credit lines, which are second mortgages with floating rates and flexible withdrawal terms, carry mandatory "resets" requiring borrowers to begin paying both principal and interest on their balances after 10 years. During the initial 10-year draw period, only interest payments are required.
But the difference between the interest-only and reset payments on these credit lines can be substantial — $500 to $600 or more per month in some cases. If borrowers cannot afford or choose not to make the fully amortizing payments that reduce the principal debt, the bank that owns the note can demand full payment and foreclose on the house if there is sufficient equity.
According to federal financial regulators, about $30 billion in home equity lines dating to 2004 are due for resets next year, $53 billion the following year and a staggering $111 billion in 2018. Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist for Equifax, one of the three national credit bureaus, calls this a looming "wave of disaster" because large numbers of borrowers will be unable to handle the higher payments. This will force banks to either foreclose, refinance the borrower or modify their loans.
The states hit hardest by the housing crisis/crash/bust.

For ten years, some folks have been making interest-only payments; imagine the shock when a) payments require some principal payback; and, b) interest rates rise, albeit slightly.

Another perfect storm.

ObamaCare + Mortgage Resets (ObamaCareMoRe).

The good news: the economy is beginning to take off. Record number of folks are finding jobs. Not to worry.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over The Weekend; KOG, Newfield, Slawson All Have Nice Wells

Tuesday, November 12, 2013
  • 23108, 767, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 5-31-30TFH, Elm Tree, t9/13; cum 30K 9/13;
  • 23546, drl, Statoil, Jake 2-11 3TFH, Last Chance, no production data,
  • 24924, conf-->loc, CLR, Tangsrud 3-1H2, Hayland, no production data, nothing of note in the well file;
  • 25206, 964, XTO, Allie 31X-24C, Capa, t8/13; cum 13K 9/13;
Monday, November 11, 2013
  • 22818, drl, CLR, Harms 1-32H, Elm Tree, no production data,
  • 23338, drl, QEP, MHA 3-03-02H-149-92, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 23605, 854, CLR, Mittlestadt 3-17H, Chimney Butte, t8/13; cum 12K 9/13;
  • 25285, conf-->loc, Hess, SC-Barney 154-98-1819H-4, Truax, no production data, up to 2,500 units gas
Sunday, November 10, 2013
  • 23547, drl, Statoil, Jake 2-11 4H, Last Chance, no production data,
  • 23908, 2,103, Newfield, Johnsrud 150-98-6-7-3H, Siverston, t7/13; cum 45K 9/13;
  • 24769, 548, CLR, Rosenquist 2-24H, Hamlet, 4 sections; producing, t10/13; cum 7K 9/13;
Saturday, November 9, 2013
  • 22817, 439, CLR, Harms 2-32H, Elm Tree, producing, t8/13; cum 1K 9/13;
  • 23337, drl, QEP, MHA 1-03-02H-149-92, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 23606, 787, CLR, Mittlestadt 4-17H1, Chimney Butte,4 sections, t8/13; cum 12K 9/13;
  • 23951, 2,246, KOG, Charging Eagle 16-21-16-1H, Twin Buttes, t91/13; cum 24K 9/13;
  • 24731, drl, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-15B-22-3H, Antelope, no production data,
  • 24768, 487, CLR, Vatne 2-25H, Hamlet, 4 sections, t9/13; cum 7K 9/13;
  • 24853, drl, Statoil, Arvid Anderson 14-11 5H, Alger, no production data,

23108, see above, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 5-31-30TFH, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23605, see above, CLR, Mittlestadt 3-17H, Chimney Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23908,  see above, Newfield, Johnsrud 150-98-6-7-3H, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 23606, see above, CLR, Mittlestadt 4-17H1, Chimney Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 23951, see above, KOG, Charging Eagle 16-21-16-1H, Twin Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Interesting Story On ObamaCare On-Line Exchange/Website At Washington Post

The article states that the White House is relying more on insurance carriers to help fix
The White House is increasing its reliance on insurers by accepting their technical help in efforts to repair the problem-ridden online health insurance marketplace and prioritizing consumers’ ability to buy plans directly from the carriers.
The Obama administration’s broader cooperation with insurers is a tacit acknowledgment that the federal insurance exchange — fraught with software and hardware flaws that have frustrated many Americans trying to buy coverage — might not be working smoothly by the target date of Nov. 30, according to several health experts familiar with the administration’s thinking. 
Two story lines:
  • too many chefs spoil the broth
  • already trial balloons and preparing American public that the site won't be "fixed" by November 30
But the bigger story is not being reported: sticker shock.

The government has now moved the "shop for plans" to the front end of the website. One can actually see the plans and the subsidies before enrolling (sending in personal information to a site that has never been fully tested for security, and a site that Consumer Reports says to avoid).

These are the story lines not yet being reported. These story lines will be reported once the website is fully working:
  • Folks will be shocked when they see the premiums.
  • Folks will be shocked when they see they do not qualify for subsidies. 
  • Folks who do qualify for subsidies, assuming they understand how the insurance plans work, will be shocked when they see the $12,000 annual deductibles. Annual. 
  • The vast majority of folks who would qualify for $0 premiums do not have access to the website. 
This is another good op-ed on ObamaCare and why it will fail.
Want a sense of scale of the changes we're in for? Think of the differences between Stonehenge-era (2500-ish B.C.) pre-England, where life was nasty and rural and brutish with its peat hovels and sun-worshiping rituals and subsistence farms, and compare it to Victorian England, with its rapidly growing, to-this-day-standing cities and townhouses and railroads. The former was more or less transformed into the latter by the power of the Industrial Revolution.
And I'm guessing we'll see nothing less dramatic in our society over the next 50 years.
Into that maelstrom, wittingly or unwittingly, waded President Barack Obama, intent on fixing some very broken aspects of the health care system. You can make a good argument that health care is literally the most complex, hardest-to-solve issue facing mankind today.
Consider what's at stake and what's involved: physiology, psychology, genetics, technology, politics, finance, morality, and ultimately the value of life itself all tied up in a tight Gordian knot of terrifying importance.
But at its heart the ACA is an astonishingly complex tangle of very human, very bureaucratic regulations, reminiscent, perhaps, of Victorian-era British bureaucracy. Just what you needed for an era of poor information flows and limited scientific knowledge. Not at all what you need for the Economic Revolution.
So here comes 1,500 pages of law and 10,000-plus new pages of federal regulations. Are they looking forward to the floods of information and processing power and harnessing them to enable better choice and consumer behavior?
All well and good but they're still missing the biggest flaw. I've mentioned it more than once.

A Little Bit Of Reminiscing -- The Early History Of The Current Bakken Boom

Earlier this morning a reader asked how long Bakken wells have been producing oil in North Dakota. I assume he was talking about the current boom, the horizontally-fracked wells. The Bakken has been targeted ever since oil was first discovered in North Dakota in 1951, but the current boom in North Dakota began in 2006. It began somewhat earlier in Montana with the discovery of the Elm Coulee in 1997/2000.

For a really nice first-hand account of the history of the early development of the Bakken, it's hard to do better than "The Bakken Rocks" by David Debertin.

An update of the first EOG wells drilled in the Bakken:
  • 16164, 463, EOG, Parshall 1-36H, s4/11/06, t6/6/06, cum 183K 9/13;
  • 16324, 883, EOG, Parshall 2-36H, s8/3/06, t9/27/06, cum 297K 9/13;
  • 16346, 1,800, EOG, Bartelson 1-3H, s9/26/06, t11/17/06, cum 422K 9/13;
  • 16370, 1,553, EOG, Warberg 1-25H, s11/13/06, t1/19/07, cum 374K 9/13;
  • 16369, PNC, EOG, Delilah 1-04H,
  • 16461, 1,487, EOG, Patten 1-02H, s1/17/07, t3/15/07, cum 441K 9/13;
  • 16371, 918, EOG, Ehlert 1-35H, s3/7/07, t4/29/07, cum 488K 9/13;
Just as a random example of older "Bakken" wells, this is a vertical multiple pay-zone well that targeted the Dawson Bay, Madison, and the Bakken. The Bakken bore was completed in early 1995:
  • 12017, CLR, Bakken 1, Dolphin oil field, Bakken IP test date: 2/13/95, with an IP of 150, cum 47K 9/13 (still producing as of 9/13)
Another random, "old" Bakken well, again targeting the Madison and the Bakken; the Bakken bore:
  • 8068, 17, Samuel Gary, Federal 12-10, Eklhorn Ranch oil field, t11/8/89; cum 12K (last prodcued June, 1992

Update On QEP's Plans To Unitize The Helis-Grail

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
An oil company is proposing a drilling unit 20 times larger than what is typical with promises that it will benefit mineral owners by pumping more oil while reducing the impact on the land.
But even though mineral owners could make more money under the proposal, many say they’re hesitant to sign up before they fully understand the complex agreement and what rights they may be giving up.
I track this story at this site.

Two comments:
  • 60%
  • it's a no-brainer
But this is the real story line. Mineral owners are located around the world, and there are a lot of mineral owners. The Helis-Grail is only one field (and it's a relatively small field) in the Bakken and so far there are 450 agreements signed. At the linked article:
The company needs 60 percent of mineral owners to agree to participate in the unit under state statute.
Mineral owners received notification of the proposal in the mail from QEP, and the company held informational meetings in Watford City. The company also set up a hotline and email address to take questions on it.
QEP has received more than 450 agreements to join the unit, said Lynn Welker, stakeholder relations adviser. It’s unclear what percentage that represents.
I assume "450 agreements" mean 450 individuals.