Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Rents Sailing Into Deflation -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46739INFLATION.

Link here.

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The Kate Middleton Photo

Folks have asked that Kate Middleton release the "original" photo before she photo-shopped it.

Link here.

The problem: there was no "one" original photograph. There were four photographs. The entire photograph was photo-shopped.

FRED: Wheat -- After The Story / Headlines -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46738INFLATION.

The headline: link here

Link here. Remember: folks want the price of groceries to go down.

No Headlines But A Huge Story -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46737B.

Breaking: Both President Biden and Donald Trump clinch their party's respective nomination. Good, bad, or indifferent, this is quite a milestone.

Now, back to regular programming.

Link here

  • 2019, pre-pandemic: Americans drive record number of vehicle miles per day (average);
    • it took four / five years, but finally,
  • 2023: US reaches a record 8.9 billion vehicle miles per day, setting a new all-time record, albeit barely
  • EIA predicts new records to be set in 2024 and 2025

BR Reports A Completed DUC With A Big IP In Pershing Oil Field -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46736B.

"Goldilocks" or the gilded age? This, the following, despite Boeing stock crashing and Apple foundering / floundering. S&P notches 17th record close in 2024, up 1.1%.

Something to think about: could Boeing (the metonym) throw the US into a recession? Those folks  thinking a “soft landing” is no better than 50/50 never factored in an airline / airplane manufacturing sector in a tailspin or death spiral. Boeing in big trouble.

Movies: The WSJ review. I find it amazing that "folks" have not pointed out "the elephant in the room" with regard to this film. But this is not a movie site, so we will move on.


Not sexually explicit, so rules UK regulators regarding a Calvin Klein ad. Link here.

Cava: the one California restaurant that isn't raising prices. Link here

Welcome relief: link here.


Basel III: link here. Wonky. The only way I will know what this is all about -- does Jamie Dimon support it? That's it. This is all I need to know:


Basel III: and Pocahontas?



Investing: due to family commitments I missed the afternoon trading segment. Holy mackerel, it looks like tech took off again.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 37.

Two new permits, #40581 - #40582:

  • Operator: KODA Resources
  • Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County)
  • Comments:
    • KODA Resources has permits for two Stout wells, SESW 18-160-102,
      • both to be sited 655 FSL with one 1903 FWL; and,
      •  the other 1938 FWL

Eleven permits renewed:

  • Crescent Point Energy (6): CPEUSC Dorothy, McQuarters, Walters, Suitor, and two Getzlaf permits; Little Muddy oil field; Williams County;
  • BR (5): five Gorhhman permits, Bailey field, Dunn County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 37934, 4,632, BR, Boxer 3A TFH, Pershing, no production data, frack data not scanned in at NDIC; if the 4,632 IP is accurate, that's a huge IP for a BR well.

The map:

Well of interest:

  • 17393, 600, BR, Boxer 21-6H, t3/10; cum 309K 8/23; off line as of 9/23;

A couple of other wells sited in that area:

  • 37929, loc/drl, BR, Parrish 3A TFH, Pershing,
  • 37926, loc/drl, BR, Boxer 2C TFH, Pershing,
  • 37931, loc/drl, BR, Parrish 3B MBH, Pershing,
  • 37940, conf, BR, Boxer 4B TFH, Pershing, no production data,

Apple And Partner TSM At 2 NM -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46735APPLE.

Reminder, my worldview, with regard to semi-conductor chips, I could be way-wrong on this, but this is my worldview, chips tracked here, and here (perhaps one of the best summaries on the web):

  • at 10 nm: a couple of years ago; "everybody" working on the 10 nm
    • at that time, INTC was struggling to make 10 nm
    • Apple - TSM: at 7 nm and marketing them
  • 7 nm: a couple of years ago;
    • Apple-TSM: bread-and-butter
    • INTC throwing in the towel
  • 5 nm:
    • Apple-TSM moving quickly from 5 nm to 3 nm
    • others: not remarkable
    • INTC has outsourced manufacturing of chips
  • 3 nm: now standard for Apple-TSM
  • 2 nm: today, see below. Wow!

Link here.

Now, we're talking about a 2-nm (2 nm) chip:

Apple -- A FinTech Company -- Compared To GPN -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46734APPLE.

GPN.

This company has never been on my radar scope; until today I had not heard of it -- if I had, I had forgotten.

But a long interview on CNBC introduced me to the company..

It was of interest to me only as compared to Apple, a FinTech company




One can do the same with Fiserv, Inc., with a market cap of $90 billion.

A Monster Grayson Mill Well Southeast Of Williston -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46733B.

This is a monster well and an incredibly important well for any number of reasons.

The well:

  • 39366, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Williston 30-31F XE 1H, Catwalk, t1/24; cum 62K after 28 days; FracFocus with no data yet; completion data available at the NDIC: 
    • completed: 1/4/24
      • TD: 21,010
      • TVD:
      • upper Bakken shale: 10,490
      • middle Bakken: 10,505
      • lower Bakken shhale: 10,546
      • oil gravity: 41.7
    • IP, 24-hour:
      • 4,007 bbls crude oil
      • 6,952 MCF natural gas
    • date stimulated: 2023-11-06
      • stages: 53
      • volume: 300,107 bbls
      • proppant: 12,639,260 pounds (12.6 million lbs)
    • geological summary:
      • a single horizontal well located on a six-well pad targeting the middle Bakken
      • spud: July 1, 2023
      • total lateral:
        • depth: 21,010
        • reached July 26, 2023
    • KOP reached in upper Lodgepole at 10,035 at 12:02 p.m. CDT, July 20, 2023
      • curve began: 5:11 a.m. CDT, July 21, 2023
      • end of curve reached at 6:27 p.m. CDT, July 21, 2023 (13 hours drilling)
      • top of the target window was set 10' into the middle Bakken and extended 18' down
    • lateral:
      • began at 10:05 a.m. CDT, July 23, 2023
      • four hours later: mud motor failure; tripped; drilling resumed at 2:24 a.m. CDT July 24, 2024, about twelve hours later;
      • wellbore remained in target window for 96.73% of the lateral section
  • TD: 10,550.35 TVD, 2:19 p.m.. CDT, July 26, 2023
  • so, about three days to complete the lateral with one trip, costing 12 hours
  • background gas: average, 641; max, 2023 units

This was about as good as it gets.

Scout ticket:

The map:

The Movie Page -- "Poor Things -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46732MOVIES.

Watch free on Hulu! Wow, one of the few non-"Oppenheimer" movies to win a top award -- Emily Stone, best actress.

Rated "R." It would be interesting to see what this film would have been rated ten years ago. It certainly seems to me it could have easily been "X" or "NR."

Well worth checking out the wiki entries and the reviews. 

The movie tells me much about the European movie audience. Now that the movie can be marketed as a "Best Actress Oscar" movie, it will be interesting to see what "the average" American moviegoer thinks about this movie. 

I have many, many thoughts on this movie. But this is not a movie site. 


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Oppenheimer 

My "Oppenheimer" library:

Whoo-hoo! Futures Jump After CPI Data — "Goldilocks" Or "Gilded Age" -- March 12, 2024

Locator: 46731B.

Updates

Late morning trading, after monthly CPI released:

Original Post 

Jobs: link here.

CPI: 1913 - 1924.

CNBC: link here.

Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.

Fed: CNBC opines that CPI news keeps three rate cuts in 2024, first one in June, "on the table."  

  • Tea leaves: no rate cut in June. With Apple paying 4.5% this is not all bad. Keeps us in "Goldilocks" economy.

ORCL: shares surge; lifted by cloud demand. 

NVDA: up $21. 

ON-Holding: falls 16% after missing 4Q24 estimates; high-end apparel.

Southwest Airlines: plunging.

Personal investing, no recommendations, see disclaimer. Per rules:

  • AAPL
  • CHRD
  • CRH
  • MRVL
  • PXD
  • MSFT
  • QCOM

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.74.

Wednesday, March 13, 2024: 113 for the month; 172 for the quarter, 172 for the year
39401, conf, Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-3,
39250, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Brandon 5393 34-1 5T,
38102, conf, BR, Stafford 01-34TFH,

Tuesday, March 12, 2024: 110 for the month; 169 for the quarter, 169 for the year
39584, conf, Whiting, DE Bud 44-32-4TFH
39583, conf, Whiting, DE Bud 44-32-4H,
39551, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Devon 5393 34-1 7T,
39550, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Joanna 5393 34-1 6B,

RBN Energy: new gas pipelines from the Permian to northwest Mexico are needed to meet demand.

Mexico’s state-owned Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) and private-sector developers of LNG export terminals have been aggressively advancing new natural gas-consuming projects in Northwest Mexico. But while plans for a number of new pipelines to help bring in gas from the Permian are on the drawing board, it remains to be seen if they can be built as quickly as they would need to be to avert a potentially ugly competition for gas supplies. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the gas-demand and gas-delivery projects now under development in Northwest Mexico.