Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Terrifying Headline Regarding Texas Oil And Gas Permitting For Month Of November, 2014 -- Rigzone -- December 23, 2014

Reuters over at Rigzone has this terrifying headline: Texas Oil and Gas Drilling Permits Fall 50 Percent in November.

The only thing missing from that headline is an exclamation point. So I will add one and put the headline in bold:
Texas oil and gas drilling permits fall 50 percent in November!
I didn't read the story; I read the first paragraph and part of the second paragraph.

Out of curiosity, I looked back at permitting for the autumn of 2014, 2013, and 2012, in North Dakota (a simple cut and paste from previous posts, taken from the Director's Cuts).  For 2012 I included December and January (2013) for obvious reasons. Data is below. My observations are at the bottom of the post.
Permitting (2014):
  • November, 2014: 235
  • October, 2014: 328
  • September, 2014: 261
  • August, 2014: 273
  • July, 2014: 265
  • June, 2014: 247
Permitting (2013):
  • December, 2013: 227
  • November, 2013: 232
  • October, 2013: 267
  • September, 2013: 287
  • August, 2013: 276 
Permitting (2012):
  • January, 2013: 218 (note the increase)
  • December, 2012: 154 ( significant decrease)
  • November, 2012: 211 (all-time high was 370 in Oct 2012)
  • October, 2012: 370 (all-time high)
  • September, 2012: 273
  • August, 2012: 261
My observations regarding permitting history for North Dakota:
  • October is generally a big month for permitting (preparing for winter work, building pads)
  • the record number of permits was in October, 2012
  • the number of November permits decline significantly from October but back toward the average  
Lynn Helms provided the reason for the historical uptick in October permits (that is not my opinion).  I doubt one can say the same for winter weather in Texas, but I don't know.

There is one more comment that could be made, but I will hold off, see if anyone comes up with the same observation -- it requires some background reading, and connecting some dots that may not be intuitive.

Finally, my database shows 206 permits for the month of December, 2014, through the 23rd. There are probably three more business days for the NDIC. Five new permits/day = 15 + 206 = 221, projected for December 2014.

Incidentally, based on the projection of the number of permits for the calendar year 2014, there was a surge of new permits in the month of December, 2014, for the state of North Dakota.

Up above I mentioned that I could make one more comment regarding North Dakota permitting; actually I can now come up with two more.

I'll probably forget what those two comments are. LOL. We'll see.

Actually a third comment. Whatever.

Apple Pushes Out Its First-Ever Automatic Security Update For Mac Computers -- I Love It -- December 23, 2014: $13 Million Industrial Fire Not Covered By Insurance

For the archives. Something tells me this story is not yet over. Bakken.com is reporting:
The fire at an oil field supply company in northwest North Dakota in July has cost the owner $12.7 million.
The Williston Herald reports insurance didn’t cover the incident at Williston’s Red River Supply facility.
Company president Rich Vestal says the facility’s $400,000 annual insurance policy didn’t cover the accident. Vestal says he believed the policy included an errors and omissions clause to cover incidents not expressly mentioned in the coverage. But Vestal’s agent switched carriers, and that clause didn’t carry over.
Pushing Security Patches

This is really cool.

The other night on Macrumors I noted the need to update the security on my Apple computer. I was going to do that but then something interrupted me.

Earlier today I got a notice that my computer security had been upgraded. Didn't give it another thought.

Tonight I read this story. San Jose Mercury News is reporting:
Apple pushed out its first-ever automatic security update for Mac computers on Monday, fixing a security flaw that the company felt was too dangerous to wait for users to patch.

The security flaw was made public on Friday on security bulletins by the Department of Homeland Security and the Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute.
Security researchers who discovered the bugs warned they could enable hackers to gain remote control of machines.
The security fix patches vulnerabilities in OS X's network time protocol, or NTP, according to Apple spokesman Bill Evans. NTP is used for synchronizing clocks on computer systems.
Now, if Apple would just manage my equity portfolio. Chuckle, chuckle. 

Non-Energy Notes From All Over -- December 23, 2014; North Dakota With Largest Population Increase (Percent) In The Nation Year-Over-Year

North Dakota population hits an all-time high. Prairie Business is reporting:
North Dakota’s population has reached an all-time high of 739,482 residents, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Dec. 23. The state’s latest population estimate is an increase of 15,625 residents from last year’s count.
North Dakota’s population has increased by 2.2 percent since last year, the largest percent increase in the nation.
North Dakota’s population growth was followed by Nevada and Texas, each recording 1.7 percent growth. With the exception of North Dakota, the 10 fastest-growing states are located in the southern or western regions of the United States.
"With the exception of ..." --- music to my ears.....

By the way, did you not find it surprising to see Nevada bouncing back, after a terrible, terrible run with the economy .... I am cheering them on. My wife does not know it yet, but we may be visiting Nevada in about two weeks. I've always had a warm spot for Nevada.

We were married there -- at least we have the paperwork to prove it, even if there were no family members or friends to witness it. A story for another time. LOL.

Non-Energy Notes From All Over

The spin:
The genius of the way The New York Times has structured itself is that lofty journalistic goals are protected from the short-term demands of grubby ordinary shareholders. Ironically–and distressingly, for those who care about journalism—it now appears that the financial demands of those holding the shares, and particularly the generous dividend they pay to the family members who hold large chunks of those shares, are now making it difficult to perform the very journalism the structure was created to protect.
The writer suggests that the problem at The New Yorks Times is short term, without specifying "short term." In fact, I've been tracking the death spiral of The New York Times, the first entry:
The next entry:
Four years of revenue problems hardly constitutes "short term" in my book. 

The South Will Rise Again
Link here to US Census.
By adding an average of 803 new residents each day between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014, Florida passed New York to become the nation’s third most populous state, according to U.S. Census Bureau state population estimates released today. Florida’s population grew by 293,000 over this period, reaching 19.9 million. The population of New York increased by 51,000 to 19.7 million.
California remained the nation’s most populous state in 2014, with 38.8 million residents, followed by Texas, at 27.0 million. Although the list of the 10 most populous states overall was unchanged, two other states did change positions, as North Carolina moved past Michigan to take the ninth spot.
Another milestone took place in Georgia (ranked 8th), which saw its population surpass 10 million for the first time.
Hanging chads become even more important. 

Don't Be So Silly


January 3, 2015: FoxNews also reports -- 
It was no surprise that the policy, which expires on February 1, would be quietly dropped: it was only ever slated to last two years and the Socialist government has for months declared it would not be renewed.
Wow, talk about trying to claw back a story. Like many laws it was put in place for two years and then if it gained traction it would have been extended. The Socialists are trying to save what little face they still have left.

Original Post

The French quietly bid the 75% wealth tax a fond adieu. Reuters is reporting:
When President Francois Hollande unveiled a "super-tax" on the rich in 2012, some feared an exodus of business, sporting and artistic talent. One adviser warned it was a Socialist step too far that would turn France into "Cuba without sun."
Two years on, with the tax due to expire at the end of this month, the mass emigration has not happened. But the damage to France's appeal as a home for top earners has been great, and the pickings from the levy paltry.
"The reform clearly damaged France's reputation and competitiveness," said a really smart analyst.
"It clearly has become harder to attract international senior managers to come to France than it was," he added.
Hollande first floated the 75-percent super-tax on earnings over 1 million euros ($1.2 million) a year in his 2012 campaign to oust his conservative rival Nicolas Sarkozy. It fired up left-wing voters and helped him unseat the incumbent.
Yet ever since, it has been a thorn in his side, helping little in France's effort to bring its public deficit within European Union limits and mixing the message just as Hollande sought to promote a more pro-business image. The adviser who made the "Cuba" gag was Emmanuel Macron, the ex-banker who is now his economy minister.
The Finance Ministry estimates the proceeds from the tax amounted to 260 million euros in its first year and 160 million in the second. That's broadly in line with expectations, but tiny compared with a budget deficit which had reached 84.7 billion euros by the end of October.
Ne Sois Pas Si Bete, France Gall
For those who do not understand French, the lyrics of the first two stanzas:

Don't be so silly,
The tax was not pretty,
The return was petty,
Cuba without the sun.

But adieu, adieu,
We are not so silly,
We let the tax expire,
Still, Cuba without the sun.

In French, it rhymes.

[For the record, I prefer this version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fypWjPistSU.]

A Note to the Granddaughters

Your mom sent me a photo of the two of you skiing in the Colorado Rockies; your young sister was in "daycare."

We are out in southern California. I never care for California when I first get back. But after three or four days, I start to acclimate. But for me, as I've often said, I have a love-"less-than-love" relationship with California. I don't know why.

Summertime Sadness, Lana Del Rey

So, we are back in southern California. Our Christmas shopping is pretty much complete. Our big shopping day was yesterday, at the huge mall in Mesa, California, and then various shopping sites between there and San Pedro on our way home. It was an awesome day; maybe more on that later.

Today we went out to the Los Angeles Air Force Base. I forgot my camera. I wanted to take some photos, but then realized that maybe one doesn't take photos on an air force base any more. But, wow, what a base, what an initial impression. I thought with all the military cuts under President Obama the stateside bases would have suffered. I am impressed what wing commanders can do with the pittance of an allowance they are given to maintain military bases. Wink, wink.

The photograph at wiki shows an almost futuristic setting for the headquarters of the Air Force Space Command's Space and Missile Systems Center.

It was about a year ago, I suppose, when I last visited the air base. The base exchange (department store) had not changed much. Nonetheless it brought back fond memories of the thirteen (or fourteen) years we served overseas. Say what you want, AAFES was always a welcome site/sight for the active-duty member serving overseas.

It was also the first time, I think, that I had been back in an Air Force commissary in at least a year. It brought back wonderful memories of my frequent temporary duty assignments to a remote base in northern England (Yorkshire).

As usual, during the day, most of the shoppers were in civilian clothes, and most appear as old as I am, suggesting most of us were military (uniformed) retirees. When I was active duty, active duty members did not visit the commissary much during the day; that was the responsibility of their spouses. Unmarried active duty were found in the AAFES shoppette after hours and the Class VI store instead. Most of the shoppers that I saw today were minority -- Asian and African-American retirees (again, I assume retirees). Many more women than men. Not many white folks like me. My wife is Asian-Hispanic. It's always hard to find her when I visit the commissary; she tends to blend in with all the others (at least from behind).

There is an immediate kinship with all the shopper/retirees -- at least for me -- I want to walk up to them all -- the men -- and ask them where they served overseas, and what their MOS or AFSC was (what they did in the Army or the Air Force). I saw a few younger folks -- again, mostly minority -- they looked just like the folks I see in the protest marches in NYC and Ferguson and Washington and wherever and yet I know they are "me" when I was that age, young and energetic and optimistic and immortal and loving the military.

Walking over to the command center, I was pleasantly surprised to see all the civilian workers (identified by their ID badges) who had obvious physical limitations, and here they were, hired by the military working at one of the most secure, technology-heavy installations in the military. The ratio of civilian workers to uniformed workers looked to be about 4 to 1 based on folks out walking around at lunch. Most were young. The uniformed seemed slightly younger than the non-uniformed. Many of the non-uniformed were seen with the seemingly omnipresent Apple-white ear buds, with the cable leading to some pocket. When you are this age, I assume there will be no cable; it will all be NFC or Bluetooth or whatever they call it then.

I probably won't see a military commissary for another year. That's fine. I want the experience to be somewhat unique. It brings back wonderful memories.

Four (4) "High IP" Wells Reported; Nineteen (19) New Permits -- December 23, 2014

Active rigs:

Active Rigs172189187197162

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Four (4) producing wells completed:
  • 27707, 1,368, BR, Haymaker 44-22TFH-B, Elidah, an "extended reach single lateral," Three Forks B1, it looks like "B" refers to a standard site plan (versus "A" and "ULW"); TD, 20,811 feet; t12/14; cum --
  • 27712, 1,896, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 7TFH, Stony Creek, Three Forks B1, gas ranged from 10 to 2300 units; t12/14; cum --
  • 27713, 2,980, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 6H, Stony Creek, middle Bakken; gas ranged from 10 to 3000 units; t12/14; cum --
  • 27714, 2,439, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 5TFH, Stony Creek, Three Forks B1,  gas ranged from 10 to 1500 units; t12/14; cum --
Nineteen (19) new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (4), Hess (4), EOG (3), Statoil (2), Whiting (2), Slawson, Murex, Triangle, OXY USA
  • Fields: Painted Woods (Williams), Sanish (Mountrail), Parshall (Mountrail), Robinson Lake (Mountrail), Buffalo Wallow (McKenzie), Bully (McKenzie), Fayette (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:
  • 27621, 531, SM Energy, Bernie B-20-17-162-98H 3XB, Blooming Prairie, t7/14; cum 52K 10/14;
  • 27734, conf, Oasis, McCauley 5601 41-34 4B, Tyrone, no production data,
  • 27735, conf, Oasis, McCauley 5601 41-34 5T, Tyrone, no production data,
  • 27789, drl, XTO, Johnson 43X-27C, Murphy Creek, no production data,
  • 28041, drl, SM Energy, Torgeson 2-15HN, West Ambrose, no production data,
  • 28237, 949, MRO, Mattie 14-22TFH, Chimney Butte, t9/14; cum 9K 10/14;
  • 28377, 1,154, Newfield, Loomer 150-99-2-11-5H, Tobacco Garden, t8/14; cum 42K 10/14;
  • 28580, 47, Enduro, NSCU F-719-H1, Newburg, a Spearfish well, t8/14; cum 3K 10/14;
One (1) permit was canceled, a BR permit, Manchester 14-9MBH, in  Dunn County.

It Only Took Five Years (And Trillions In Stimulus) -- December 23, 2014; North Dakota Remains #1 In Job Creation

North Dakota is #1 in job creation -- story over at Bakken.com:
Boosted by an oil and gas boom, North Dakota’s jobs total grew by 4.8 percent between December 2013 and November of this year, the largest increase of any state. Texas’s employment growth ranked second at 3.7 percent, and Utah was third at 3.4 percent.  
But this I found most interesting, going into the 7th year of the North Dakota Bakken boom:
North Dakota’s unemployment rate remained constant despite its job growth because of a huge influx of new workers.
They keep coming.

And they wouldn't keep coming to North Dakota if the rest of the US economy was growing at ... say ... 5%. Or would they? $110,000 annual salary in North Dakota vs $25,000 elsewhere? Maybe.


Tweeting about 11:40 a.m. Pacific Time: small earthquake measuring 2.6 struck the Huntington Beach, CA, area at 11:32 am PT. No injuries or damage reported. My brother-in-law/wife live in Huntington Beach. And yes, they are drilling for oil in the Huntington Beach area; that's probably the reason, though folks still have time to blame George W.

Coal industry happy with EPA decision -- fly ash is a non-hazardous waste; will let states, rather than federal government regulate disposal. This is incredibly important in the Bakken. Flatbed trucks are seen daily hauling fly ash out to drilling sites. The Dickinson Press is reporting:
As environmentalists decried the decision, North Dakota’s lignite coal industry welcomed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s decision Friday to classify coal ash as non-hazardous waste.
A hazardous waste designation would have cost each of the state’s eight coal-fired power plants millions of dollars in operational changes and could have been the “final nail in the coffin” for some facilities, said Jason Bohrer, president of the Bismarck-based Lignite Energy Council. 
The EPA began assessing the health risks and storage of coal ash after a dam failed at a Tennessee plant in December 2008, spilling 1.1 billion gallons of coal ash that flooded more than 300 acres, polluted rivers, destroyed homes and forced the evacuation of a nearby neighborhood.
On Friday, the agency classified coal ash in the same category as garbage and sludge from wastewater treatment plants, while also requiring regular safety inspections for coal ash impoundments and landfills and monitoring of nearby groundwater for signs of toxic elements such as mercury, cadmium and arsenic found.
The same environmenalists made no mention of 38 golden eagles killed by slicers and dicers in two counties in Wyoming; previously reported.


The next big thing. Regular readers know my fascination with Netflix (I've never invested in Netflix; never have, never will). Now this story today from Yahoo!Finance:
Giving someone a plastic gift card for a digital streaming-video service might seem as odd as sending a virtual fruitcake. 
Yet Netflix gift cards, available for the first time in recent months, have emerged as a hot holiday item, with spot shortages striking the handful of retail stores Netflix Inc. is using to distribute them. 
In Manhattan, the cards seem to have been sold out for the past several days at Staples Inc. and GameStop Corp. locations, the only chains in the borough that carried them.
When asked about the Netflix cards Monday, a saleswoman at a GameStop in downtown Manhattan asked, “What is it with this epidemic?”
The GDP Story

I love the lede. Yahoo!Finance is reporting:
This is what’s supposed to happen after a recession. It’s just five years later than expected.
The economy (measured by GDP) grew 5%, adjusted for inflation, from July through September, after 4.6% growth in the prior quarter, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. One three-month period of turbocharged growth might be a fluke, but two is fairly convincing. The recovery that’s been limping along since mid-2009 finally seems to be hitting its stride.
Revised 3Q14 GDP up to 5%.

GDP best in a decade: NY Times. This is an incredible story. It's time to start thinking about repealing that 3-term Presidential limit. Hillary might do as well for the economy, but it's Elizabeth Warren that could get the Dow to 20,000. Seriously, however one looks at it, a GDP of 5% is quite incredible. However, if I understand it correctly, that's the growth rate. If the economy is so far down, growing so slowly, I don't suppose it takes a lot to make the percent growth increase. Economists will say it better than I can. But the mainstream media spin puts us in a great Christmas -- repeat, Christmas mood.

Stocks rally; Dow over 18,000; new record.

How Warren Buffett crushed the S&P in 2014. Bullish on America.


What Joe Cocker stole from Ringo.

Energy Stories 

From Yahoo!In-Play: natural gas futures tank; drop 33 cents to $3.14.

From Yaho!In-Play: Chesapeake sells assets to Southwestern Energy; Chesapeake announces $1 billion stock buyback plan.

Natural gas glut isn't deterring Southwestern Energy.
WONDERVIEW, Ark. — Across the giant Fayetteville shale gas field here, country roads that were clogged by truck traffic just a few years ago are empty again. Once aglow at night from the bright lights twinkling on drilling rigs, the roads are now dark under the starry Arkansas sky.
Virtually all of the few remaining rig and frack crews belong to one survivor: Southwestern Energy, a stubborn believer in the future profitability of natural gas.
“I’d rather have the gas to myself with no one following,” Steven Mueller, Southwestern’s chief executive, said last month as he watched his rig hands pull pipe and mud from a new natural gas well here in northern Arkansas.
Mr. Mueller hardly needs to look back. With the price of natural gas plunging along with oil in recent weeks, virtually no one is following his lead outside of Southwestern. Twelve of the 13 rigs still drilling among the chicken farms and cattle ranches are Southwestern’s. The 45 other rigs — once operated by giants like Chesapeake Energy, BHP Billiton and Exxon Mobil’s XTO Energy a few years ago, when natural gas prices were more than twice as high — are gone.
Bakken banks outperform rest of banks in North Dakota and Montana.

CLR to have only 11 rigs in the Bakken.

Oil prices likely to stay low as Saudi Arabia tries to "smoke out" US.

Military Retiree Shops Commissary For First Time In Years 
Amazed At Innovations ... Like Digital Pricing

First time back in a military commissary in quite some time. Broccoli 79 cents/lb vs $1.79/lb at Albertson's in south LA. Yoplait 10 for $5 vs 10 for $7 at Albertson's in south LA. Bananas 59 cents/lb vs  89 cents/lb at Albertson's in south LA. Pretty much tells the story. Oh, a gift box of brand-name chocolate at $29.99 in the "real world," priced at $19.99 at the commissary -- not a sale price; regular price.

One Pawn At A Time 

The chess game continues, one pawn at a time, including perhaps one en passant. The AP is reporting:
Russia and four other ex-Soviet nations on Tuesday completed the creation of a new economic alliance intended to bolster their integration, but the ambitious grouping immediately showed signs of fracture as the leader of Belarus sharply criticized Moscow.

The Sky Is Not Falling (Yet); Number Of Active Rigs Plummeted To 170, Now Back Up To 172 -- December 23, 2014

Active rigs:

Active Rigs172189187197162

RBN Energy: Gulf of Mexico projects coming on line, after years of development, adding to the glut; some GOM projects are profitable at $37/bbl.
Crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is on the rebound, and headed into record territory as the fifth anniversary of the Macondo blowout approaches.
Several major deepwater projects--including Hess and Chevron’s Tubular Bells—are starting to produce oil after years of development, and others will follow in 2015 and 2016. The gains in GOM crude production are significant; daily output now stands at about 1.5 MMb/d, and it’s seen rising to 2 MMb/d within three years.
In today’s blog, “Tubular Bell—Gulf of Mexico Oil Gains Exorcise Macondo’s Ghosts,” we examine the resurgence in GOM oil production, and the reasons why recent investments in deepwater drilling may well pay off despite the oil price crash.
This may not be the ideal time to start crude oil production from a project that cost hundreds of millions—or even billions—of dollars to develop. After all, crude prices have been nose-diving in recent weeks, and Saudi Arabia appears determined to maintain its production levels no matter how low prices go. There already are signs that US shale oil producers are rethinking their 2015 drilling plans, and that certainly makes financial sense.   
Shale-play development is front-end loaded because production rates from most shale wells peak high and early. That means a well that starts producing in, say, January 2015 will be selling about half of its oil during the 2015 calendar year.
Oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) are a different animal. Deepwater drilling may be much more expensive up-front, but production rates at GOM wells remain high and flat over a long period of time
For that reason, exploration and production (E&P) companies active in the GOM take a decidedly long-term view. They look at average oil prices over the next 20-30 years when making drill-or-don’t-drill decisions, not the next three to five.
So because deepwater projects in the Gulf are seen as very long-term investments, the oil price of the moment is not such a big factor in an E&P company’s decision on whether a major project is a “go”. Still, no one in the oil business fails to consider the break-even price for developing an oil resource. From what we’ve seen and heard, the break-even price for big GOM oil projects in the early stages of construction is somewhere around $70/Bbl—maybe as low as $65 or as high as $75, but in either case higher than current crude prices (WTI closed at $55.26/Bbl yesterday – December 22, 2014.) What that tells us is that E&Ps with identified and promising discoveries in the Gulf (but, as yet, no commitment to develop them) will be closely tracking oil prices and related events over the next few months.
What’s important to know, though, is that while the break-even oil price for major new GOM projects may be $70/Bbl, the break-even price for smaller “tie-back” projects that link new fields to existing offshore infrastructure (Shell’s Cardamom, with its link to Auger is an example) can be half that: $35 or in some cases even less. That suggests that Gulf oil projects, with their high output and long lives, will continue to attract capital-spending dollars, and that GOM oil production will continue to rebound.
Much more at the link.

For more on Peak Oil Theory, visit The Oil Drum. Oh, that's right. That blog called it quits some time ago.

More On 3Q14 North Dakota Taxable Sales And Purchases -- Dickinson's Planning Comes To Fruition -- December 23, 2014

Yesterday I posted the 3Q14 taxable sales and purchases for cities and counties in North Dakota (they are posted again, down below. I thought the number for Dickinson was quite impressive, and today I see the story over at The Dickinson Press:
If 2011 was the year of the oil boom, 2014 could arguably be considered the year of Dickinson’s building boom.
Construction dominated the city’s landscape, impacting everything from businesses to schools and community services. Over the past 12 months, the city saw a number of projects either wrap up or begin, setting the stage for an equally busy 2015.
“This has really been the year of major infrastructure buildout,” Dickinson Mayor Dennis Johnson said.
The neat thing was that the city fathers planned all this (suggesting that it's sister cities to the north and northeast just let things happen):
“We started almost three years ago with planning, and after you do planning, you get into engineering all your projects, bidding them, constructing them,” Johnson said. “We really got into the construction phase big time in the last 12 to 18 months. A lot has come to fruition.”
Plans for the future of Dickinson started in earnest with the city’s 2035 “roadmap” assessing infrastructure and outlining priorities for the city’s growth. Johnson said it gave leaders a good direction of where to go, even if they couldn’t anticipate how quickly.
By the way:
Of the 50 largest cities in North Dakota, the highest percent increases for the third quarter of 2014 (compared to the third quarter of 2013) were as follows:
  • Watford City – Increase of 41.32 percent
  • New Town – Increase of 30.31 percent
  • Beach – Increase of 22.78 percent
  • Dickinson – Increase of 20.78 percent
  • Stanley – Increase of 18.41 percent
Counties with the highest percent increases for the third quarter of 2014 (compared to the third quarter of 2013) were as follows:
  • Dunn County – Increase of 61.67 percent
  • Billings County – Increase of 51.4 percent
  • Sioux County – Increase of 51.04 percent
  • McKenzie County – Increase of 38.32 percent
  • Golden Valley County – Increase of 24.39 percent
Taxable Sales and Purchases, 3Q14

At the link, scroll to the bottom for the pdf

As long as I'm doing Williston stuff, I might as well add one more. In taxable sales and purchases, Williston leads again. The last time Fargo was ahead of Williston was 2Q11. Williston led the state in 3Q14 taxable sales and purchases:
  • Williston: $984,433,645
  • Fargo: $757,410,916
  • Bismarck: $497,247,696
  • Minot: $425,717,626
  • Dickinson: $391,276,547
  • Grand Forks: $325,888,455
  • Tioga: $258,800,232
  • West Fargo: $106,123,617
  • Williams (Williston): $1,263,947,915
    Cass (Fargo): $888,712,608
  • Burleigh (Bismarck): $500,612,814
  • Ward (Minot): $452,334,582
  • Stark (Dickinson): $425,661,220
Compare with 2Q14:
  • Williston: $911,990,254
  • Fargo: $707,24,918
This is the 12th consecutive month that taxable sales in Williston exceeded taxable sales in Fargo; the last time Fargo was ahead of Williston was 2Q11.

Never Is A Long, Long Time -- December 23, 2014

The other day I posted this:
On another note, the Peak Oil folks just cannot give up.
For the archives: it is now confirmed, the IPs of new Bakken wells are declining.
It should be noted that the study only went back to November, 2013.
The author if of the belief that the "initial 24-hour production number" strongly correlates with how well that well will do. I wouldn't give the author's conclusions much credence. It should be noted that there at least three new issues affecting production: a) new flaring rules; b) new conditioning rules; c) the plummet in oil prices. These issues are relatively new but oil companies have seen them coming (at least the first two) for several months now. I take the study with a grain of salt. That, and $1.89, will get you a Starbucks coffee. 
You may want to take a look at the linked IPs story above. In response to this I received the most interesting comment:
Ron at PeakOilBarrel has a history of trumpeting weak claims for peaking. In the most recent case, someone did a careful analysis and showed no significant trend on Bakken wells getting worse:


Here is a previous screwup by Ron (he didn't understand how Texas reports boost amounts for several months by corrections).
I really appreciate the comment. Thank you.  

By the way, the whole Peak Oil "thing" is very interesting. I'm not sure if folks agree on whether "peak oil" refers to a single field, a single basin, a single region, a single continent, the entire earth, or perhaps the entire universe.

It looks like the Peak Oil "thing' is, at least temporarily, irrelevant. I don't know if folks saw OPEC chief (or was it Saudi chief -- doesn't matter, pretty much the same) say yesterday Saudi will keep pumping at current levels if oil gets to $20 and "we will probably never see $100-oil again."

"Never" is a long, long time, but it's possible he meant we won't see $100-oil in his lifetime.

Long, Long Time, Linda Ronstadt