Changes To The Blog Re-Iterated -- September 27, 2022

Re-posting from July 25, 2022:

Reporting "monster wells": about two years ago, before the Covid-19 lock downs, I mentioned that we were going to see a lot of wells going over the cumulative milestone of 500,000 bbls of crude oil. That was delayed, of course, because of the global pandemic. Now, with things getting back to normal, we are now seeing many, many wells going over that 500,000 bbls of crude oil threshold. That number is becoming so great, that as a general rule, I won't be posting wells that go over 500,000 bbls effective today. It would be just too many. I can't decide if I will even bother with the 750,000-bbls-milestone. 

Wells with jump in production ("halo effect"; advantaged oil). I've been posting those wells at this site. Likewise, there are just too many wells that fit that this description and I just don't have time to post them any more. These wells will continue to be tagged so they can easily be found.

Tuesday Night -- September 27, 2022

Poolside: best time of the year. 85° and it feels like 65° in San Pedro, CA. Poolside. Late night. After dark. Perfect. Then, invited for late night dinner grilled by chef for high-end steak house in Dallas. 

Streaming: watching "Murder, My Sweet" for the third time in three days. Outstanding. 

Covid-19: importance of being vaccinated if about to be hit by "storm of the century." This is POTUS.

RC-135. Ukraine army discovered control center for Iranian drones. Center destroyed. 

One day closer to nukes: Lyman is falling. Seiverodonetsk is now vulnerable. Expect to see video of first-captured Russian draftees. Link here. 

Midterms: Pelosi tracker. 

Cost of renewables: New England utility seeks 160% rate increase. Kabuki dance. Regulators will grant rate increase but cut it by half. Link here.

Re-Posting Today's Daily Activity Report -- September 27, 2022

Back to the Bakken

UPDATE, from a reader: Enervus (drillinginfo.com) has a service that allows you to track the location of frac crews.

A reader's inquiry:  Can you direct me to a site that tracks the fracking/completion crew activity similar to what the ND site provides for Rig Count. I hae not been able to find anything.

My reply: I have never found that. I don't think that data is available anywhere. If it is, I've never come across it. 

If that information is available, I would be surprised. 

I've maintained "forever" that most folks who follow the oil industry have never evolved in their thinking from conventional oil to tight, unconventional, shale. This is another example. Most folks are still fixated / focused on rig counts. As I've said "forever," [don't take this out of context], rigs don't matter. Frack spreads matter; completions matter. And yet there is no regulatory requirement to track frack spreads as far as I know. 

This reader is correct: tracking frack spreads is important. 

The Daily Activity Report

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $78.23.

Natural gas: $6.62.

Gasoline: $2.489.

Six new permits, #39271 - #39276, inclusive:

• Operator: Kraken:
• Field: Burg (Williams); Ellisville (Williams)
• Comments:
• Kraken has permits for six Sumner wells, SESW 1-158-99, 
• to be sited 341 FSL and between 2252 FWL and 2417 FWL

Twelve permits renewed:

• Petro Harvester Operating (10): four FLX permits; four LIG permits and one PTL permit, and one Tafelmeyer permit, all in Burke County;
• Rimrock (2): two Two Shields Butte permits in Dunn County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported:

• 31036, 506, Whiting, Westin TTT 11-25H, Sanish, t--; cum 12K 7/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	11546	11636	17184	9156	6584	2514
BAKKEN	6-2022	6	144	0	6958	10	0	0

• 37540, 136, BR, Faye 3B MBH, Elidah, no production data, 
• 36243, 40, BR, Stortroen 1D MBH, Dimmick Lake, minimal production;
• 36986, 795, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 2-23HSL, Long Creek, no production data, 
• 38565, 471, Hunt, Halliday 145-93-15-22H 4, Lake Ilo, no production data, 
• 35753, 1,212, XTO, Tom State 34X-1E2, Allkali Creek, t--; cum 46K 7/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2022	25	19854	19879	29028	36386	34923	1403
BAKKEN	6-2022	26	22492	22389	33716	38476	37396	1021
BAKKEN	5-2022	4	3567	3481	4727	5437	5158	270
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	286	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	4	286	0	3975	662	0	662

Another well with a permit that was PNC'd. We're seeing a lot of this lately, as of 2022:

I talked about this "phenomenon" years ago, predicting exactly that this would happen. A reader called me an idiot -- LOL -- at the time.

Frack Spreads -- September 27, 2022

UPDATE, from a reader: Enervus (drillinginfo.com) has a service that allows you to track the location of frac crews.

A reader's inquiry:  Can you direct me to a site that tracks the fracking/completion crew activity similar to what the ND site provides for Rig Count? I have not been able to find anything.

My reply: I have never found that. I don't think that data is available anywhere. If it is, I've never come across it. 

If that information is available, I would be surprised. 

I've maintained "forever" that most folks who follow the oil industry have never evolved in their thinking from conventional oil to tight, unconventional, shale. This is another example. Most folks are still fixated / focused on rig counts. As I've said "forever," [don't take this out of context], rigs don't matter. Frack spreads matter; completions matter. And yet there is no regulatory requirement to track frack spreads as far as I know. 

This reader is correct: tracking frack spreads is important.

Kraken With Six New Permits -- September 27, 2022

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

Streaming wars: who owns what?

Important on many levels. From February 7, 2022.

Netflix: makes sense.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $78.23.

Natural gas: $6.62.

Gasoline: $2.489.

Six new permits, #39271 - #39276, inclusive:

• Operator: Kraken:
• Field: Burg (Williams); Ellisville (Williams)
• Comments:
• Kraken has permits for six Sumner wells, SESW 1-158-99, 
• to be sited 341 FSL and between 2252 FWL and 2417 FWL

Twelve permits renewed:

• Petro Harvester Operating (10): four FLX permits; four LIG permits and one PTL permit, and one Tafelmeyer permit, all in Burke County;
• Rimrock (2): two Two Shields Butte permits in Dunn County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported:

• 31036, 506, Whiting, Westin TTT 11-25H, Sanish, t--; cum 12K 7/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	11546	11636	17184	9156	6584	2514
BAKKEN	6-2022	6	144	0	6958	10	0	0

• 37540, 136, BR, Faye 3B MBH, Elidah, no production data, 
• 36243, 40, BR, Stortroen 1D MBH, Dimmick Lake, minimal production;
• 36986, 795, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 2-23HSL, Long Creek, no production data, 
• 38565, 471, Hunt, Halliday 145-93-15-22H 4, Lake Ilo, no production data, 
• 35753, 1,212, XTO, Tom State 34X-1E2, Allkali Creek, t--; cum 46K 7/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2022	25	19854	19879	29028	36386	34923	1403
BAKKEN	6-2022	26	22492	22389	33716	38476	37396	1021
BAKKEN	5-2022	4	3567	3481	4727	5437	5158	270
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	286	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	4	286	0	3975	662	0	662

Another well with a permit that was PNC'd. We're seeing a lot of this lately, as of 2022:

I talked about this "phenomenon" years ago, predicting exactly that this would happen. A reader called me an idiot -- LOL -- at the time.

Blog Count -- September 27, 2022

September 27, 2022: 270 days.

Blog count: 3086 to date this year.

3086 / 270 = 11.42963

363 * 11.42963 = 4,172.

Previous record:

• 2013: 4,313.

**************************
Literary Hub

Yesterday's "Literary Hub" was particularly good.

• Best and worst writing advice.
• On writing.
• The Rosenbergs.
• Midlife crisis and male violence. 

Earlier:

• Longleaf pine. Particularly good.
  

Today's "Literary Hub" was even better.

• "The Lost Ecological Paradise of the English Fenlands," Annie Proulx. 
• "The 'Infinite Lack' In Our Search for Love," -- Diary, Annie Ernaux. Wiki entry.
• "What Don Quixote Reveals about an empire at its peak." Giles Tremlett.
• "Writing Space." Kamila Shamsie.
• The Rosetta Stone, JSTOR Daily.
  

*************************
Elsewhere

WSJ: Disney+ review -- cross-species cooperation. 

Ordinarily, the rule in nature television is that humans should be heard and not seen. And unless you’re David Attenborough, even that may be going too far. But humans are animals, after all. Shouldn’t they be among the players? Or even the played?

The latter, in the six-part, state-of-the-art “Super/Natural,” involve the vampire spiders of Lake Victoria in Kenya, which use the “perfume” of human blood to attract a mate; in order to get it, they go on what narrator Benedict Cumberbatch calls a “bloodthirsty killing spree.” (Their victims are well-fed mosquitoes.) The former include fishermen who’ve created a symbiotic alliance with bottle-nosed dolphins in the waters off Laguna, Brazil. There, mullets abound but are hard to catch, so the dolphins let the humans know where they’ve herded the smaller fish; the fishermen toss their nets in those designated spots; the throwing of the nets startles some fish into the mouths of the dolphins. Everybody wins. Except the mullets.

This National Geographic documentary series is about a lot of things, but it emphasizes throughout the cooperation that exists between species, either inherent or learned. James Cameron, no doubt deeply involved with his multiple “Avatar” sequels (the first, “The Way of Water,” is expected in December), serves as an executive producer on “Super/Natural,” which is no small thing: His deep-sea documentaries have been astounding (“Aliens of the Deep,” notably). Not surprisingly, the Nat Geo series contains no shortage of revelations, at least for this viewer, who had no idea that the whistling acacia even existed on the African savannah, much less that cocktail ants (their backsides full of toxins) bore holes in the trees so the wind sounds like swarming bees—which scares away foliage-eating elephants. Or that male Mexican fireflies on the make form their own kind of flash mob, blinking in unison to gather their mates. 

Update On Another LNG Export Terminal -- September 27, 2022

RBN Energy: NextDecade eyes FID on Rio Grande LNG project with carbon capture, part 4. Archived.

December 15, 2024: Plaquemines up and running. Link here.

The world needs more LNG and the U.S. is answering that call. Two U.S. liquefaction projects, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage III, have already reached a final investment decision (FID) on a combined 23.3 MMtpa (3.1 Bcf/d) of export capacity, which will be online by mid-decade. But by the looks of it, we are just getting started. Next up could be NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG, which has sold 75% of its first two trains’ capacity — enough to take FID, possibly by the end of the year. If it moves forward, not only will the project add another 10.8 MMtpa (1.43 Bcf/d) or more of export capacity to the Gulf Coast, it could also come with a new carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) facility, which has long been a selling point for the project. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on the U.S. LNG projects most likely to move forward, this time with a look at Rio Grande LNG.

From August 28, 2022:

Link here.

Most important data point is at this link. See if you can spot it.

See LNG_Export_US_List.

From RBN Energy today:

Part 1: Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG, which became the first U.S. project to take FID in the post-COVID wave of LNG expansion;

Part 2: Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage III, whose developer has also since committed to its construction. Both projects are now being built and targeting startups in the 2024-25 timeframe. Beyond that, however, both have continued to sell capacity and are likely to see additional trains take FID before construction is complete. 

Venture Global so far has taken FID on 13.3 MMtpa (1.8 Bcf/d) of export capacity, but the full project is 20 MMtpa and total capacity is nearly 90% sold out. Cheniere sold 2.8 MMtpa (0.4 Bcf/d) of capacity from an unnamed expansion at Corpus Christi this summer, which it later said would come from two additional mini-trains at Stage III totaling 3.3 MMtpa (0.44 Bcf/d). The project has just started its FERC application process and is already nearly sold out.

Part 3: Driftwood LNG, Tellurian’s 11-MMtpa project, which began construction in Louisiana earlier this year but was finding it extremely difficult to secure financing. The project was underpinned by three 10-year deals with no liquefaction fee, which was in part why Tellurian has found financing so challenging, and now two of those deals have been scrapped. Shell pulled out of its agreement with Tellurian last week at the same time Tellurian said it was cancelling its contract with Vitol. This leaves only the 3-MMtpa, 10-year contract with Gunvor intact and means the project’s future is murkier than ever. 

Part 4, today: While Plaquemines and Corpus Christi were in the spotlight, other projects continued to progress ... that look poised for a near-term FID, with NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG now at the top of the list. 

Rio Grande LNG is a five-train, 27-MMtpa (3.6 Bcf/d) LNG terminal proposed for the Port of Brownsville in Texas. The company will likely take FID on two or three trains first, with commitments on the others to follow once construction has begun. The project has secured 8.25 MMtpa (1.1 Bcf/d) of its capacity in binding, long-term sales purchase agreements (SPAs), which is equal to 75% of the first two trains. The project first sold 2 MMtpa (0.26 Bcf/d) to Shell back in 2019 and at the time was also in negotiations with French utility Engie for additional volumes. Engie backed out of the deal in November 2020 but later restarted negotiations and signed a 1.75-MMtpa (0.23 Bcf/d) SPA this spring. The project has also secured 3.5 MMtpa (0.46 Bcf/d) of SPAs with Chinese offtakers and 1 MMtpa (0.13 Bcf/d) with ExxonMobil.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- September 27, 2022

Cowboys: did I mention they won last night. By the way, Troy Aikman seemed really "lame" last night. Tony Romo clearly beats out Aikman. 

HEB; coming to north Texas -- Frisco, TX. Link here. 

Gasoline prices: at record highs, now starting to go back up. Despite SPR releases. Demand destruction. Biden getting nervous. Storm won't hit Texas, Louisiana.

EU: to topple like a house of cards. A reader started talking about this a year ago. Now, this.

Fox 5: link here.

• Fox 1: long-range air-to-air missile
• Fox 2: medium-range
• Fox 3: short range
• Fox 4: gun, and, then there's Fox 5. Link here.

Climate, link here: 

*************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $77.74.

Natural gas: $7.016.

Wednesday, September 28, 2022: 47 for the month, 97 for the quarter, 436 for the year
38718, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3019-6H, Pembroke, see this post;
38333, conf, Oasis, Soto 5097-12-3 2B, Siverston,

Tuesday, September 27, 2022: 45 for the month, 95 for the quarter, 434 for the year
38719, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-13H, Pembroke, see this post;
37944, conf, Bowline, Missouri W 152-103-4-8-13H,
37814, conf, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 MBH-ULW,

RBN Energy: NextDecade eyes FID on Rio Grande LNG project with carbon capture, part 4. Archived.

The world needs more LNG and the U.S. is answering that call. Two U.S. liquefaction projects, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage III, have already reached a final investment decision (FID) on a combined 23.3 MMtpa (3.1 Bcf/d) of export capacity, which will be online by mid-decade. But by the looks of it, we are just getting started. Next up could be NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG, which has sold 75% of its first two trains’ capacity — enough to take FID, possibly by the end of the year. If it moves forward, not only will the project add another 10.8 MMtpa (1.43 Bcf/d) or more of export capacity to the Gulf Coast, it could also come with a new carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) facility, which has long been a selling point for the project. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on the U.S. LNG projects most likely to move forward, this time with a look at Rio Grande LNG.

Did I Mention That The Dallas Cowboys Won Last Night? September 27, 2022

Cowboys: another win without Dak. Pay differential between Dak and back-up quarterback?

Astrophography with the iPhone: link here.

Apple: London -- new Apple campus in London't Battersea power station to open in early 2023.

Fake meat: go woke, go broke.

Gas leaks: both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream (or Nordstrom as White House press secretary calls 'em) have sprung leaks. Link here. And, here. Bloomberg: 

Goodbye: Germany auto manufacturing. Third of German auto firms heading toward liquidity problems due to soaring energy prices. They didn't see this coming in 2010? Link here.

Brain health: out of Trondheim, Norway -- physical exercise, social activity, strong, passionate interests --

• treadmill, 80 minutes daily; biking, 80 minutes daily; weights, 15 minutes; rowing, 30 minutes
• social media; swimming in apartment complex
• blogging

Cowboys: did I mention that the Cowboys won last night?

Covid: CDC no longer recommends universal masking in health facilities. Link here.

Ukraine: another Russian division destroyed. Link here.

Graphic of the day: coal -- link here.

Video of the day: square dancing -- pow-wow. Wow!