Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Something To Look Forward To: Monster Mountain Gap Wells To Come Off Confidential List End Of August, 2018

Something to look forward to: #33120 and #33121 come off confidential list August 25, 2018, and August 27, 2018, respectively. See this post.


Caricature by artist (unknown -- Air National Guard or Air Force Reserve, enlisted, female, temporary duty to Langley AFB, 2001 or thereabouts); my wife always hated this picture because it reminded her of someone else -- apparently to my wife -- Japanese-Hispanic -- all us "white guys" look alike.

Cheniere Ready To Fire Up Corpus Christi LNG Export Terminal -- August 14, 2018

Data points at Platts:

US LNG exports:
  • US LNG exports should surpass 4 Bcf/d  by the end of this year
  • with other facilities under construction, total US LNG exports should double, hit 8 Bcf/d by the end of 2019
 Update on projects:
  • first wave of LNG export developers
    • Corpus Christi: this will be Cheniere's second LNG export terminal; the first at Sabine Pass (Louisiana); Corpus ready to fire-up; be ready by end of year (2018)
      • Corpus Christi: construction ahead of schedule; a second train is being built; a third is being planned
      • Cheniere also working to commercialize a sixth liquefaction train at Sabine Pass; four trains currently operating at Sabine Pass and a fifth one, like Train 1 at Corpus Christi, is expected to being producing LNG before the end of 2018
    • Dominion Energy and Cheniere had first two; Cheniere will be the country's third
      • will fire-up by end of year
    • delays at Freeport LNG and Cameron LNG; to come on line 2H19
    • KMI, Elba Island, Savannah, GA: 4Q18 and final units by 3Q19
  • second wave of LNG export developers: what next?
    • more than a dozen projects are being proposed
    • startups expected in early- to mid-2020s
    • many have struggled with long-term contracts with buyers
    • international trade disputes another problem
    • China said August 3 it may impose 25% tariffs on American cargoes of LNG if President Trump follows through on threat to expand tariffs on Chinese goods
  • pipelines
    • Cheniere's Midcontinent Supply Header Interstate Pipeline project
    • from Oklahoma's Anadaro Basin to the Gulf Coast
    • received its FERC permit certification earlier this week
Updates tracked here.

Number Of Active Rigs Solidly Below 60, Trending Down In North Dakota;

The NDIC Director's Cut is scheduled to be released tomorrow.

API: weekly US crude oil inventories -- increased by 3.660 million bbls

Active rigs:

Active Rigs58573374194

Ten new permits:
  • Operators: Kraken Operating (5); MRO (4); Whiting
    Fields: Oliver (Williams); Reunion Bay (Mountrail); Pembroke (McKenzie)
    Comments: Kraken Operating has permits for a 5-well permit in Lot3/2-156-99; MRO has permits for a 4-well pad in Lot 4/2-151-93; Whiting has another Berg trust Federal permit in 27-149-98
Five permits renewed:
  • Whiting (2): a Dietz permit and a Solberg permit, both in Stark County
  • Petro-Hunt (2); two USA permits in McKenzie County
  • Liberty Resources: a Blomquist permit in Burke County
One permit canceled:
  • Oasis: a Kellogg Federal permit in McKenzie County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed;
  • 33253, 1,158, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-2-1TFH, Banks, t7/18; cum --
  • 29090, 1,032, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-6H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 7K after 13 days;
  • 33812, 1,480, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14, Charlson, t7/18; cum --
  • 33548, 4,283, MRO, Alexander USA 44-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/18; cum --

Off The Net -- August 14, 2018

AAPL flirted with an all-time high again today.  AAPL's high for the day was $210.56. It's all-tie high is $210.95. AAPL is currently up about 38 cents to $209.23.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

The Daily Note

This is pretty cool. Last week I said that as of T+75, the daily note would move on from Trump's tariffs to sanctions on Iran regardless of the news that day. Well, today is T+75 of Trump's trade wars. Time to move on. The trade wars amounted to little in the big scheme of things.

Although it's still August 14, 2018, T+75, we will post the first daily note in this series and date it as of August 15, T+1.

Iran Sanctions

October 18, 2018, T+66: this page has gotten too long -- time to move on ...

October 17, 2018, T+65: looks like Saudi Arabia will find way to thread the needle after killing a journalist. 

October 16, 2018, T+64: quiet. 

October 15, 2018, T+63: in the heavyweight fight of the week, Leslie Stahl vs The Donald, Hollywood's Variety gave a unanimous TKO to the latter.

October 14, 2018, T+62: Hillary defends Weinstein. Says if women are adults at the time of sexual harassment, it cannot be "an abuse of power." Wow. I can't make this up. From Fox News reporting on Hillary's interview with CBS today:
Hillary Clinton, who went on to be elected to the Senate and served as President Obama’s secretary of state, said the relationship was not an abuse of power because Lewinsky “was an adult.” At the time of the affair, Lewinsky was 22.
October 13, 2018, T+61: quiet.

October 12, 2018, T+60: Dow (irrelevant) gains almost 300 points.

October 11, 2018, T+59: Dow (irrelevant) falls almost 600 points.

October 10, 2018, T+58: Dow (irrelevant) falls almost 900 points.

October 9, 2018, T+57: quiet.

October 8, 2018, T+56: he does have a point --

October 7, 2018, T+55: my favorite video of the day, LOL. I hope it loops over and over on election day. I enjoy it best with the video turned OFF ... it makes me think of Druids and Stonehenge.

October 6, 2018, T+54: Heitkamp, Schumer, et al -- politicians and petty; Susan Collins: a senator and stateswoman. Outshines Diane Feinstein. But wow, I was completely wrong. I thought Feinstein played this well and had won. Final vote: 50 - 48, apparently with one GOP senator not showing up to vote; and one GOP senator checking that she was "present" but had not yet made up her mind.

October 5, 2018, T+ 53:

October 4, 2018, T+ 52: Heidi Heitkamp will vote "against" Kavanaugh.

October 3, 2018, T+51: Washington, DC -- more entertaining then ever. Every print media eagerly looking forward to day they splash this headline: "You're Fired."

October 2, 2018, T+50: holding pattern, again today ...

October 1, 2018, T+49: Iran sanctions starting to bite; China economy shows signs of slowing down due to trade war; and, Canada blinks.

September 30, 2018, T+48: US golfers at Ryder Cup -- huge embarrassment. Wow. Could they have possibly done any worse?

September 29, 2018, T+47: if I were a 17 y/o male, I would never again go to a party where there were women; I would never date a woman; I would never go into any room and close the door. When practicing medicine in the USAF, I never closed my office/exam room door.
September 28, 2018, T+46, posted 10:10 a.m.CDT, September 27, 2018):

What difference does it make?

September 27, 2018, T+45: nomination won't come out of committee. (Posted 6:45 p.m. CDT, September 25, 2018.) Thursday, September 27, 2018: wow, what an incredible day -- Trump takes on China; Trump delays meeting with Rosenstein; SEC charges Elon Musk with fraud; TSLA drops 10%; unbiased reporting suggests Kavanaugh saved himself; but the media will spin the story; big story: will Grassley hold the committee vote Friday; Genscape suggests New England could have huge natural gas shortage risk over next few weeks;

September 26, 2018, T+44: into the danger zone.

September 25, 2018, T+43: in the past 24 hours, things look brighter for Kavanaugh. Should be a very, very interesting Thursday.

September 24, 2018, T+42: Ronan Farrow gets involved. Amy Coney Barrett's turn?

September 23, 2018, T+41: this must have been one heck of a party that all these folks can actually remember this party. I recall a few parties during my college days, but I don't recall the specifics dates, or the locations, and I kept a lot of journals during this time.

September 22, 2018, T+40: accuser given more time. Palo Alto loony sets US Senate schedule. Headline says she has agreed to testify. She said nothing of the sort. She said negotiations will continue. Grassley needs to schedule the vote and tell the accuser she is welcome to testify whenever she wants. This is just the committee vote, not the Senate confirmation vote. For Pete's sake. 

September 21, 2018, T+39: Trump tweets -- Senator Feinstein and the Democrats held the letter for months, only to release it with a bang after the hearings were OVER - done very purposefully to Obstruct & Resist & Delay. Let her testify, or not, and TAKE THE VOTE!

September 20, 2018, T+38: Kenney, Kopechne, Kaepernick, Kavanaugh, Kaos.

September 19, 2018, T+37: Well played, Ms Feinstein.

September 18, 2018, T+36: Kennedy, Kopechne, Kaepernick, Kavanaugh. 

September 17, 2018, T+35: End of the line.

End of the Line, The Traveling Wilburys

September 16, 2018, T+34: Kavanugh #MeToo.

September 15, 2018, T+34: Kavanaugh accused.

September 14, 2018, T+33: for first time in 13 years, US will sell beef to China. Not one single pound of beef was sold to the Chinese under the Obama administration -- a policy that began under the "intellectually uncurious" George Bush and continued by Barack "you can't just drill your way to lower oil prices" Obama.

September 13, 2018, T+32: lest we forget.

September 12, 2018, T+31: someday we are going to look back on the Trump era -- remember it fondly and wonder how the next president screwed it up so badly. Meanwhile, his predecessor continues to claim it was policies that set these things in motion. What a doofus:

  • if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor -- huge lie
  • you can't just drill your way to lower oil prices -- huge lie (I don't know if he believed that, or if that was a policy decision)
  • the Russians are not trying to influence the Hillary - Trump presidential campaigns
September 11, 2018, T+30: record after record after record being broken. 

September 10, 2018, T+29: unless you were under the Geico rock the past week, you could not have possibly missed former President Obama taking credit for building the Trump economy. LOL. The bigger story: Trump is getting under everybody's skin / inside everyone's mind.

September 9, 2018, T+28: photo of the day [about an hour after the photo was posted, it was reported that Serena was fined $17,000 for cheating, among other things].

September 8, 2018, T+27: a footnote in history at worse, at most, a very, very short chapter, "ObamaCare."

September 7, 2018, T+26: annual wage growth highest since 2009; jobs report blows past forecasts; 

September 6, 2018, T+25: Senator Warren says if Trump unfit to be president, time to invoke 25th Amendment.

September 5, 2018, T+24: graphic of the day --

September 4, 2018, T+23: loss of civility in the US Senate today -- Kavanaugh -- Supreme Court nominee -- hearings begin. 

September 3, 2018, T+22: Ivanka emerges as Trump's jobs czar; focus on "forgotten men and women." Posted on Labor Day. In other news, photo-cropping:

September 2, 2018, T+21: quiet Sunday. Trump will re-consider freezing federal employee pay raises. Virginia GOP at risk. LOL. As usual, Trump is doing the right thing, and he is doing it his way. 

September 1, 2018, T+20: it was all about McCain.

August 31, 2018, T+18: it was all about McCain. 

August 30, 2018, T+17:

August 29, 2018, T+16: wow, Trudeau is spooked! After US-Mexico come to "broad" agreement (announced just two days ago), Trudeau who has not had a good year so far, says Canada could have a deal with the US by the end of the week. Trudeau's country has become known as the country that can't "close a deal." Four pipeline attempts: four strike outs -- Northern Gateway (killed by Trudeau); Keystone XL (killed by Trudeau's close friend Barack Obama); Enbridge Line #3 in deep trouble in Minnesota (arguing over one or two miles of route); and, TransMountain Pipeline expansion (Trudeau had to buy it and all hinges on court decision expected to be announced tomorrow).

August 28, 2018, T+15: second estimate of 2Q18 GDP -- at high end of consensus (3.8% - 4.2%) -- 4.2%

August 28, 2018, T+14: major indices hit new record highs yesterday; one exception -- Dow -- but very, very close to it's all-time high of 26,600 or thereabouts. 

August 27, 2018, T+13:

August 26, 2018, T+12: quiet.

August 25, 2018, T+11: quiet.

August 24, 2018, T+10: quiet.

August 23, 2018, T+9: remember when Obama Campaign was fined $375,000 for campaign reporting violations and no jail time. Cohen was screwed. 

August 22, 2018, T+8: Market yawns despite news yesterday. Headline: US entering longest bull run ever. S&P 500 hits all-time record; extends records.

August 21, 2018, T+7: "Manafort" found guilty on 8 of 18 charges; none have to do with Trump or "Russian collusion."  "Cohen" pleads guilty to two charges breaking campaign finance laws.

August 20, 2018, T+6: Quiet.

August 19, 2018, T+5: Governor Andrew Cuomo really stepped in it this past week, saying that "the United States was never that great." And that's not out of context, and it's not paraphrasing. He said that very, very clearly. The crowd's reaction was "mixed"? Mostly incredulous. Cuomo's "deplorable" moment.

August 18, 2018, T+4: first former CIA director to lose his security clearance. Sounds like other "spooks" got the message. At least two said the former CIA director was "out of line" with his public comments.

August 17, 2018, T+3: President Trump revokes the security clearance of former CIA director John Brennan. It's about time. I'm looking for Trump to fire Sessions, Rosenstein, and Mueller sometime between now and January 3, 2019. My hunch: after Kavanaugh is confirmed. 

August 16, 2018, T+2: I have not fact-checked this. From a comment at this site:
August 15, 2018, T+1: Iran's latest tactic to save market share. Iran will cut prices for its Asian customers. Sanctions are starting to bite. Link here.

Iran Sanctions
Days 67 -- present 

Fight's Back On: Let The Trade Wars Begin (A Bust)

Fight's On: Trump Exits "The Iran Deal" (A Win)
Fight's On: Let The Trade Wars Begin (A Bust)
The 38 Days Following The Schumer Shut-Down (A Bust)
The 2 Days of The Schumer Shut Down (A Bust)
The Last 65 Days of His First Term
Days 331 - 365
Days 301 - 330

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

The Native American Culture Page -- August 14, 2018 -- The "Dollarization" Of Venezuela's Currency

See this post for background. At the link, scroll down to "The Book Page" at the bottom.

The eagle-eyed reader who first spotted the reference to a "carver's cabin" at Burnaby has now photographic evidence of such a structure, and indeed, it is a two-story cabin as the reporter first reported.

See this Burnaby update. Note the two-story carver's cabin:

Update On Venezuela

For the archives, from Argus:
  • August 20, 2018: Venezuela to formally introduce new currency
  • the sovereign bolivar will replace the existing strong bolivar
  • the sovereign bolivar will strip off five zeroes from the exiting strong bolivar
  • the sovereign bolivar will be tied to the "petro"
  • the petro is a newly introduced Venezuelan cryptocurrency -- will hide sources of financial transactions
  • the petro will be backed by Venezuela's oil, gold and diamonds  (I am not making this up)
  • the central bank will publish the value of the new sovereign bolivar on a daily basis
  • if its backed by the price of oil (for the most part), Venezuela has turned to "dollarization" of its currency -- Argus -- because internationally, oil is still priced in US dollars 
  • whether this works or not, it would not have required "cryptocurrency" unless Venezuela has something to hide (I'm shocked, I'm shocked)

Huge Shout-Out To Mike Filloon -- Thank You -- August 14, 2018

Filloon can be followed over at SeekingAlpha.

Saudi Cuts Production

This is the third post regarding this Reuters story. For an earlier note on this article, see this post. I am posting this again, because of all the data points, from OPEC:
  • this is from OPEC's monthly report -- OPEC's monthly reports shift like the blowing sand
  • OPEC: lower demand for its crude oil next year as rivals pump more
  • Saudi Arabia: eager to avoid a return of oversupply, has cut production
  • OPEC: the world will need 32.05 million bopd from its 15 members, down 130,000 bopd from last month's forecast 
    • 130,000 / 32.05 million = 0.4%
  • OPEC prices topped out at $80 this year; have since slid to $73
  • OPEC July production rose to 32.32 million bopd
    • this is a "mere" 41,000 bopd from June as the Saudi cut offset increases elsewhere (other OPEC nations taking Saudi's market share?)
  • OPEC: moderate demand growth next year
  • demand to grow by 1.43 million bopd
    • that's 20,000 bopd less than forecast
  • a slowdown from 1.64 million bopd in 2018
  • July: Saudi Arabia claims it cut production by 200,000 bopd to 10.288 million bopd
Bottom line: a lot of verbiage for not much change: when OPEC suggests demand will be 20,000 bopd less than forecast (just one month ago), one gets the feeling that there are a few princes behind a computer with too much time on their hands.

Bottom line: no matter how many times I look at Saudi's production figures, they always seem to be about 10 million bopd, never less, but not much more. More importantly, "they" always talk about production but never about domestic consumption which historically increases every summer (air conditioning demand) and will increase going forward under Prince Salman's Vision 2030.

Bottom line: parsing OPEC's monthly letters feels a lot like listening to Steve Liesman parsing "the Fed's" by monthly minutes.

Bottom line: by the way, if that is accurate that next year global demand will be 20,000 bopd less than forecast, that makes Williams County in the Bakken, a swing producer. Harold Hamm, alone, can increase / decrease production by that much electronically and remotely from Oklahoma. 

How To Read Tea Leaves

From Your Essential Guide to Tasseography.

For "Peak Oil" Folks, The Beat Goes On; Commentaries On Global Oil Production And Pricing, Looking Forward To 2019 -- August 14, 2018

Three great commentaries out there today:
The first one -- Saudi cuts oil output:
OPEC on Monday forecast lower demand for its crude next year as rivals pump more and said top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, eager to avoid a return of oversupply, had cut production.
In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said the world will need 32.05 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from its 15 members in 2019, down 130,000 bpd from last month's forecast.
The drop in demand for OPEC crude means there will be less strain on other producers in making up for supply losses in Venezuela and Libya, and potentially in Iran as renewed U.S. sanctions kick in.
For newbies:
  • among global oil producers, Venezuela, Libya, Iran, and Canada no longer matter
  • the only global oil producers that matter: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Texas -- as swing producers -- and probably in that order
The second article:
Most of the time, the overall inventory numbers at Cushing don’t move up or down long enough to attract a lot of attention. When production upstream of the hub swells, we can start to see builds. And when Gulf Coast demand rises or Midwest refiners are running at top utilization, we’ll typically see draws. But when inventories are hovering around a manageable average (like mid-2016), we tend to view stockpiles at the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World” as an indicator for the WTI supply/demand balance and thus prices — but not as a source of market consternation.   
Where things really start to get interesting — and what’s currently keeping Midcontinent traders up at night — is the current scenario of crude inventories inching towards the bottom of their tanks. Recent footage of Cushing, in the video at the lnk, gives you a sense for just how low we’ve gotten. 
Crude inventories have moved low enough in recent weeks that much of the market is beginning to question how low we can go.
The reason this question can be a bit murky is tank bottoms, the minimum amount of crude oil that is always left in storage tanks. Tank bottoms are kind of like a minimum balance in your checking account — to keep the account running, you need to leave, say, $1,000 in it.
You can add a bunch of money above that threshold, but you really, really don’t want to dip below that lowest limit. Tank bottoms provide a sort of liquid foundation for the tank, or a minimum operating balance, where volume can easily flow in and out of the tank as long as it stays above that bottom level.
Because the vast majority of tanks at Cushing have floating roofs, tank bottoms also ensure those roofs don’t hit the physical bottom of the tank. Crude cannot flow unless the proper tank bottoms are in place, and the owner or operator of a tank will leave those bottoms in place until that tank is taken out of service.
Comment: some weeks ago, John Kemp was one of the first to shout loudly and clearly on twitter that we had ended a period of severe backwardation.
Comment: this will turn out to a non-problem.
The third article is a great read -- some interesting analysis that fits much of my world myth, although I disagree with some of his "facts." However, at the end of the day, "the beat goes on," this is the writer's thesis:
In spite of the oil prices nearly tripling from the 2016 lows, the big players just haven't invested money in the mega-project arena as of yet. The oil mix needs these long-cycle barrels as these wells tend to flow at many time the rate of the unconventional shale plays that are now soaking up the lion’s share of new capex dollars.
Intuitively we know long-cycle production must return.
But, as the EIA supply graphs show, it is way past due if we are to have any hope of replacing barrels lost to the decline of fields currently on stream.
So, the good news is it will happen. But no one is calling for a meaningful return to higher capex levels for a year or two. And that is exactly why I believe there is a price super-spike in the offing. My guess is it’s a couple of years out, but I could be wrong both on the short and the long side.
We are living on borrowed time in the area of oil supply. The glut of mega-projects completed in the run up to 2014 is aging rapidly, and declines will start to be felt. There is a gap in the pipeline to replace these supplies that cannot be filled in the short run.
We seem to keep re-learning the same lessons. I may sit my young grandson down soon. He will be driving age in a couple of years. Perhaps by then I will have figured out a way to tell him about gas lines.
Comment: haven't the "peak oil" folks been talking about a "super-price-spike" for the past ten years? If so, we're now moving into the second decade of "peak oil" folks talking about the coming "super-price-spike."At some point, they will be correct. Goldman Sachs probably knows the precise date when we will see that "super-spike." By the way, we've been to $140 in the recent past, so the "super-spike" has to be well above $140 to qualify for "super-price."
 One of my least favorite songs, but there's no other choice, as the beat goes on:

The Beat Goes On, Sonny and Cher

Active Rigs Drop Below 60 -- August 14, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you might have read here.

Market: the market opened strong on Home Depot's second-quarter earnings, but then faded. Mid-morning the Dow was up all of 32 points, after several days of huge "down" days. Analysts forecast EPS at $2.84; came in at $3.05, and guidance for full year was raised to $9.42 from $9.31 by the company.

Timing the market: Mark Cuban says he has sold off all his equity investments, except for a few, including Amazon and Netflix. No specific dates were mentioned, but must have sold near recent market tops.

The saga continues: Saudi cuts oil output as OPEC points to 2019 surplus -- and for the past year, we've heard nothing but --
  • supply will tighten; and,
  • lack of megaprojects coming on line by majors means shortages (see below, from oilprice)
Great commentaries today:
  • first, the RBN Energy post today (see below)
  • second, one over at oilprice: the real reason behind the next oil squeeze;
Back to the Bakken

The Director's Cut is scheduled to be released tomorrow.

Wells coming off the confidential list today:
  • 34054, SI/NC,  BR, Rink 6-1-5 MBH, Pershing, no production data,
  • 33231, 1,856, CLR, Vardon 3-14H2, Siverston, Three Forks, 62 stages; 14.8 million lbs, another huge Vardon well; the Vardon wells are tracked here; t3/18; cum 120K  -- 120K in four months -- and not too long ago the folks over at SeekingAlpha were all agog at EOG targeting first-year production of over 100,000 bbls in the Bakken; the completion is instructive -- CLR, in its 2Q18 corporate presentation said this: optimized completion, 60 stages; Whiting, in its 2Q18 corporate presentation said this (slide 16):
  • wells stimulated with less than 3 million lbs were underperformers
  • strong production increase going to 7.5 million lbs
  • no apparently production increase seen at 15 million lbs

Active rigs:

Active Rigs59573374194

RBN Energy: is it time to panic over falling Cushing oil?
Crude oil inventories at Cushing have been in a free fall. After last peaking at more than 69 MMbbl in April 2017, stockpiles have decreased to less than 22 MMbbl recently, nearing all-time lows for tank utilization at the Oklahoma crude-trading hub. While we’ve seen volumes drop quickly in the past, inventories have now declined for 12 straight weeks at a staggering pace. Traders, refiners, and other market participants are starting to fret. Is this just another cyclical trend or are market factors exacerbating the impact? Today, we examine the influence of historical pricing trends on Cushing inventories and why it seems that demand factors are speeding up the drop.
Cushing inventories, a leading benchmark for U.S. crude oil stockpile analysis, are measured weekly as part of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Stockpiles at Cushing averaged just under 65 MMbbl from 2016 through the beginning of 2017. Inventories ramped up to 69.4 MMbbl in April 2017 (Figure 1 below), an all-time high for volume at the trading hub. That high was quickly followed by a sharp drop, then a rebound towards 64 MMbbl in October 2017. But since October, we’ve seen an almost relentless decline in crude inventories at Cushing, with stocks falling 30 out of the last 42 weeks and for the last 12 weeks straight