Fields: Little Knife (Dunn County); Ross (Mountrail County)
Comments:
Hunt Oil has permit for two State C wells, SWSW 3-156-90,
to be sited 357 FSL and 513 / 543 FWL;
Enerplus has permits for six Crying Tree wells, SWSE 8-147-97,
all to be sited outside the spacing unit; the spacing units: section 5 / 8 -147-97, to sited 935 / 1023 FSL and 1614 / 1704 FEL.
Crying Tree wells: there are already at least nine producing Crying Tree wells and another Crying Tree already permitted. So that suggests at least 15 Crying Tree wells -- but I could be wrong on that, but that is what it appears right now.
Six permits renewed:
Grayson Mill, all in Todd (Williston) oil field: one Hawkeye (#35866) and five Pyramid permits (#35867 - #35871, inclusive). The pad has ten permits / wells on the northwest side of Williston, at the corner of 52nd Street NW and between 32nd Avenue West / Easy Street. I can't make this stuff up.
the Pyramid wells are mediocre at best; it will be interesting if this changes with six more Pyramid/Hawkeye wells to be drilled.
Three producing wells (DUCs) were reported completed:
The well that is currently still producing, closest to this group of new MRO wells noted above, is 0.25 miles away, situated in a section east of this MRO section, and operated by a different company than MRO:
17976, 110, BR, Patton21-1H, Bailey, t9/09; cum 340K 11/24, note the huge jump in production, from 910 bbls over 29 days (9/24) to 6,206 bbls over 30 days, 11/24. The most recent sundry form is dated August, 2022, and does not provide any helpful information regarding the huge jump in production:
For an investor, 2025 is going to be an incredible year.
The key thing to remember: the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") is not the economy.
The American economy is going to do very, very well particularly when compared to the rest of the world.
So, let's leave it at. The American economy is going to do very, very well.
But that doesn't mean the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") is going to do well. It's hard for me to believe that after two years of back-to-back gains of 20% in the market (actually almost 25%) will mean a third year of the same. But nearly 100% of analysts expect the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") to end the year higher than when it started. It's hard for me to be a contrarian, but after two years of back-to-back gains of 20% in the market (actually almost 25%)....
If that ends up being true, that the market will end up higher by the end of the year compared to the beginning, investors will be very, very happy and very, very well rewarded.
On the other hand, it the market has a significant reversal, it offers an opportunity for investors to invest in the market at lower prices. Warren Buffet appears to be betting on the latter.
But that doesn't mean the economy is / will be doing poorly. The US economy in 2025 is going to do incredibly well. We'll talk about that later, but maybe not this week. If the US economy in 2025 does incredibly well, and the market disappoints the average investor, not to worry. The incredible US economy will continue into 2026 (tailwinds) and the market will eventually catch up. Investors who continue to invest in stocks this year (2025) will be rewarded, sooner or later.
If the stock market reflects the economy then investors should see a market that ends higher at the end of the year than when it started.
If the stock market falls, it simply offers investors an opportunity to invest in some great American companies. And wait for things to turn around in 2026.
One caveat: if the market does poorly this year compared to the economy, then the market becomes a stock pickers' market. Again, I think that is where Buffett excels.
So, bottom line for me this year:
I will stick with large cap American companies.
I won't be adding to my positions in high-flying tech stocks.
I added cautiously to my tech stocks this past year, but it was back in 2023 that I made my huge positions in high-flying tech stocks. That's over for awhile until I see which way the wind is blowing.
There is one exception. I will continue to add to a position that I just started in the past six weeks (which rules out Apple; I've held Apple for quite some time).
I won't be adding to my oil and gas positions simply because I've built up such huge positions over the years, mostly through dividend reinvestment.
That leaves nine other sectors, sectors about which I know very, very little.
So, except for
one tech company,
one restaurant,
one construction company, I will be putting all new money into broad-based ETFs, not "specialty" ETFs.
I can't be more specific than that, because it doesn't matter. Everyone has their own ideas on how to invest. I'm about the last person anyone would want to follow.
I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my
posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And
now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things
Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial
revolution.
10 ACCS, 513th Tactical Airlift Wing (later 513th Airborne Command and Control Wing).
USAF flight surgeons were assigned primary aircraft at their home station. Flight surgeons were expected to accrue the majority of their flight time in their assigned aircraft. Flight surgeons were required to fly a minimum of four hours each month to earn flight pay (paid monthly) but were expected to fly much more often than the four hours. Generally, a fighter a/c, such as the F-15 flew 1.0 to 1.2 hours on a single training mission. On the other hand, a cargo plane, such as the C-130 or KC-135 routinely flew three hours on a routine training mission. My family and I were stationed in Europe for thirteen consecutive years: my primary a/c during those years were, for the most part, the F-15 and the F-111. At RAF Mildenhall, I flew the majority of my hours in the KC-135, attached to the Tenth Airborne Command and Control Squadron.
The journal covering the period, September 1986 - July 1989:
In
preparation for the new weapon system and its unique training
requirements, USAFE activated the 495th Tactical Fighter Squadron April
1, 1977. This was 33 years to the day since the squadron's inactivation.
The 495th's mission of functioning as a replacement training unit for
the other three fighter squadrons made the wing unique in two ways.
First, it made the 48th the only combat unit in USAFE with four
squadrons. Furthermore, it made the 48th the only wing operating with
its own replacement training unit. The 495th ended its mission December
13, 1991 when the wing reorganized under the objective wing program and
began its transition to the newer F-15E "Strike Eagle."
a. We were transferred to RAF Lakenheath/RAF Mildenhall, England, in the summer of
1986, from Bitburg AB, Germany. After being assigned as “walk-on
baggage” in the backseat of the F-15 at Bitburg AB, I was transferred to
RAF Lakenheath, as a flight surgeon, where my primary aircraft would be
the F-111F. The aircrew assigned to the F-111F essentially spent their
flying lives rotating through two bases, one in New Mexico and RAF
Lakenheath. They were not happy with their geographical lot in life.
They loved England, but hated Cannon Air Force Base, New Mexico, due to
its isolation.
b. The F-111 was a supersonic,
terrain-following, two-seat (side-by-side) fighter-bomber where the
right seater, the weapons system officer (WSO) had a real job. All WSOs
and flight surgeons were required to take the 2-week refresher course,
since each model of the F-111 was different. For me the course was not a
refresher. Looking back it was amazing that I took enough away from
the course that I could actually function as a WSO. Absolutely
amazing. I held my own, and there were some flight surgeons that could
do their job better than “real” WSOs. The radar could not tell the
difference between rainstorms and the cliffs of England -- very
disconcerting until I learned that the pilots were not allowed to fly
into weather relying on radar when a flight surgeon was in the right
seat, and that flight surgeons were not allowed to fly at night in the
F-111.
c. It was difficult to get all the flying I wanted
and even difficult to get the required number of hours some months
(flight pay required that I fly a minimum of four hours / month) in my
primary aircraft, the F-111F. To get the time I needed I often flew in
the EC-135’s and KC-135’s assigned to RAF Mildenhall. RAF Mildenhall
was located about 10 minutes from RAF Lakenheath. Again, these were
some of the best days of my life.
d. The EC-135 and KC-135
were based on the Boeing 707 (I believe that’s correct). The “KC” is a
tanker -- refuels in-flight other aircraft, particularly fighters. The
“C” stood for “cargo” and the “K” modified the “cargo” but I don’t know
the origin of the “K.” The “EC’s” were communication and control
aircraft. The “E” came from “electronic.” The EC-135 aircraft that I
flew in at RAF Mildenhall were assigned to the “Silk Purse” mission:
their main purpose in life was to transmit low frequency communications
to American submarines in the Atlantic. The ECs received their signals
from satellites and transmitted them to submarines via a mile-long
one-inch diameter copper cable towed behind the EC-135. I remember it
taking about 30 minutes to completely unreel the cable and another 30
minutes to reel it in upon mission completion. Although I was never on a
mission in which we had trouble with the cable, if the cable did get
“hung up,” the EC could not land with it “out.” It had to be cut before
landing.
e. In addition to the F-111 and the EC/KC-135, I
was able to fly in other aircraft as will be noted in the diary that
follows. This diary is transcribed from the original records and was
originally maintained on an old Apple IIc computer that I had at work.
f. Some translations of phrases used below: Pilot Pro: pilot proficiency -- scheduled for pilots’ benefit only to practice procedures RTB: return to base
Lajes: largest city in the Portuguese Island group of the Azores,
about a 1000 miles west of Portugal in the Atlantic; “Silk Purse” was on
alert at Lajes; crews rotated weekly. ACCS: Air Command and Control Squadron
Tail numbers of EC aircraft: note that they started with “61,” which
means they were put into operation in 1961. We were flying in 1986 and
later, so these aircraft were at least 25 years old.
RAF Lakenheath and RAF Mildenhall, Suffolk County, England
[After my time at Menwith Hill Station, Yorkshire, England, many years
later -- 2002 - 2004 -- I understood the importance of including the
counties of England when noting locations
28 Oct 86: 7.1 hrs in EC-135
28 Nov 86: 4.5 hrs in KC-135. Refueled 33 fighters over Germany, 28 F-16 's and 5 F-4's
12 Nov 86: 2.5 hrs in C-23 Sherpa from Mildenhall to Ramstein.
Landed in "Alarm Red" in Zweibruecken during local Salty Nation
exercise. The Sherpa was a small cargo plane used for in-theater
cargo. It was made in Ireland, and was an unpressurized aircraft. We
could not fly above 12,000 feet. One could actually stick one’s head
out of the windows on this unpressurized aircraft, which we did on one
occasion just to say we did.
13 Nov 86: 1.1 hr in C-141 back to Mildenhall from Ramstein.
20 Nov 86: 3.2 hr in EC-135 to Ramstein and back. Refueled with KC-10 Extender with practice emergency break-away.
11 Dec 86: 2.6 hr in EC-135. Night flight and multiple touch and goes at Maddington, northeast of RAF Lakenheath.
SUBTOTAL: 28 Oct - 11 Dec - 21.0 (25.9) hours
23 Dec 86: 1.2 hr in C-9, medical evacuation to Rhein-Main
24 Dec 86: 10.0 hr in C-141, medical evacuation to Andrews. I don’t
recall the specifics of this medical evacuation. I do recall that on my
first tour of Bitburg Air Base, I did serve as the pediatrician on a
Christmas medical air evacuation from Germany to Washington, DC
(Bethesda Naval Medical Center); it was a very, very lonely Christmas
for me. I believe the details may be elsewhere.
SUBTOTAL: 28 Oct - 24 Dec: 32.2 (37.1) hours
6 Jan 86: 7.3 hr in EC-135, Wire Mission [Note how long these wire
missions were. The pilots really got bored with these missions, boring
holes in the sky.]
12 Jan 87: 3.7 hr in EC-135, pilot pro, night mission.
12 Feb 87: 5.3 hr in EC-135, pilot pro, night mission, pilots: Henry, Sanborn, Pearson.
SUBTOTAL: 28 Oct - 12 Feb 87 - 48.5 (53.4) hours
17 Mar 87: 7.5 hr in EC-135, "flew the Wire" with the Silk Purse
Control Group (SPCG) -- Silk Purse for short. Pilots: Delaski and
Reilly. No problems.
24 Mar 87: 3.4 hr in UC-12B with Navy -- to Browdy, Wales, and St. Mawgon, Wales.
31 Mar 87: 5.3 hr in EC-135 with Silk Purse. RTB early due to problem with alert jet at Lajes. Pilots Henry and Hoffman
SUBTOTAL: 28 Oct - 31 Mar 87 - 64.7 (69.6) hours. S/L: 24 hours
22 Apr 87: 5.9 hr in EC-135 with Silk Purse to Lajes, Azores. Very
nice long low approach and low flight around entire island. Included
one period of refueling. Between island and huge chunks of land in
ocean, Nazi subs hid during WWII. Pilots Reilly and Aton.
23 Apr 87: 5.5 hr in EC-135 with Silk Purse on return from Lajes.
Uneventful. Straight in full stop. Pilots McNeil and Kennedy.
14 May 87: 8.0 hr in MC-130!! With 7 SOS out of Frankfurt. Pilot:
Major Scott. Invited by Sgt Harris, former member of 10 ACCS. 6.0 hr
into Schwarzes Pferd, Germany (exercise name for unknown base in
Germany--part of Exercise FLINTLOCK 87). Low level (250 AGL) at 250
knots. Confirmed position by noting autobahns and towers. Landed three
times at short airfield (3300 ft) with all airfield lights out and all
aircraft lights (including cockpit lights) turned off. Picked up
approximately 30 Special Forces (Green Berets) and brought them back to
Sculthorp, where I was TDY with the Air Transportable Hospital (ATH).
This was an incredible sortie; one I talked about for a long time.
SUBTOTAL: 28 Oct 86 - 14 May 87 -- 84.1 hours . S/L 32 hours
5 Jun 87: 4.5 + 2.1 hrs in two sorties in EC-135, pilots Kennedy and Aton. (6.6 hrs).
2 Jul 87: 7.4 hrs in KC-135R, pilot Capt Sutherland, refueled RC-135U off northern Norway.
17 Jul 87: 1.0 hr in EC-135, pilots Lt Col Stammler (new 10 ACCS/CC),
Capts Fallon and Lusso, planned 3.6 hrs, but upon taking off, left main
gear failed to retract -- returned uneventfully to base after burning
off fuel.
14 Oct 87: -- hours in EC-135A, pilot Munk from the 10 ACCS from Mildenhall to Lajes Field, Azores. Tail #285.
15 Oct 87: -- hrs in EC-135A, pilot Lusso from Lajes Field, Azores, to Mildenhall, via a stop in Stuttgart. Tail #286.
SUBTOTAL: 28 Oct 86 - 15 Oct 87:
9 Nov 87: 5.7 total hours in four successive sorties; one scheduled
with 25 wives of F-111 pilots (Lakenheath) to be refueled by our EC-135H
was brought short when unable to retract left main landing gear (0.7
hr); the second sortie of 2.5 hrs refueled 8 F-111s; we dropped off the
wives and then loaded up with 10 ACCS pilots and flew two pilot pros,
one for 1.0 hr and one for 1.5 hrs. Pilots: Capt McNeil, LTC Peeke,
Major Munk, Capt Ebert, Capt Lauth, Capt Rosenberg, Capt Fallon; on
EC-135H, tail #61-0286 (Dark Angel).
Zaragoza Air Base, Spain
20 Jan 88: 2.3 hrs in UH-1N, Search and Rescue helicopter, out of Zaragoza AB, Spain. Pilot, Major Leatherwood.
21 Jan 88: 5.8 hrs in KC-10A, refueled 16 German F-4 's out of Zaragoza AB, Spain. Pilot: Capt Bratun.
25 Jan 88: 2.3 hrs in KC-10A, refueled 24 F-16 's out of Zaragoza AB, Spain. Pilot: Capt Burg.
27 Jan 898: 2.0 hrs in F-111F at Zaragoza AB, Spain. CENSORED. Low level thru Pyrenees. Pilot: Capt Hechinger
RAF Mildenhall, Suffolk County, England
19 Feb 88: 6.6 hrs in EC-135H, pilot pro, Mildenhall. Tail # 61-0285, 0839 hr-1517 hr, pilot Major Munk.
29 Feb 88: 6.6 hrs in EC-135H, pilot pro, Mildenhall. Tail number 61-0282, pilot Lauth, Henry, Mertz.
7 Mar 88: 6.6 hrs in EC-135H, pilot pro, Mildenhall, Tail number 61-0282, pilot --.
NASA Shuttle Support, England - Spain - Morocco
11 Apr 88: 2.0 hrs in C-130, RAF Mildenhall to Ramstein AB, on way to Morocco.
11 Apr 88: 3.4 hrs in C-21A (LearJet), Ramstein AB to Marrakech,
Morocco. If I remember correctly this was a site survey for future
shuttle support missions.
RAF Mildenhall, Suffolk County, England
6 May 88: 6.1 hrs in EC-135, last flight for Butch Marshall, also
with Col Kealoha, Major Chris Hoffman and Capt Charlie Stevens. Pilot
“pro” -- proficiency.
? 3.8 hrs?
24 Jun 88: 2.3 hrs in KC-135Q model, refueled SR-71 over North Sea. 306 SW with Maj Maude.
8 Jul 88: 5.8 hrs in EC-135H. Pilot pro with Maj Lauro, Capt Lusso,
Lt Hawk. Landed at Woodbridge (plane to be washed the next day).
Bussed back to RAF Mildenhall. Bus breaks down five miles from RAF
Mildenhall!
17 Aug 88: 2.1 hrs in F-111F. Pilot Kent Haina. Training runs over Tain Range in Scotland. Flew down Loch Ness twice.
3 Sept 88: 4.8 hrs in EC-135H (61-0282) to Lajes. Pilot Capt Reilly, Co-pilot Capt Fallon and Nav Capt Campbell.
3 Sep 88: 3.1 hrs in EC-135H (61-0286) return to RAF Lakenheath (MHZ
runway still closed for repair) from Lajes. Same crew as above.
9 Sept 88: 0.8 hrs in EC-135H (61-0291) bringing plane to RAF
Woodbridge for wash. Expected to be 4.0 hrs but due to smell of
something burning went direct to RAF Woodbridge.
21 Sept 88: 2.5 hrs in F-111F with Capt John Bratun, single ship, low level up to Scotland.
6 Oct 88: 5.4 hrs in EC-135H, pilots Lauth and Henry; local mission,
with CENSORED.
17 Nov 88: 2.1 hrs in UC-21 with Army to Burtonwood Military Community, Liverpool, England.
1 Dec 88: 2.3 hrs in F-111F, pilot Capt Haina. INS didn't get up.
15 Dec 88: 1.5 hrs in UC-21 with Army to Burtonwood Military
Community, Liverpool, England, pilots Capt Schwarze and Lt Conli.
16 Dec 88: 1.2 hrs in UC-21 with Army, return from Burtonwood, see above. Nite flight.
3 Jan 89: 2.9 hrs in F-111F, pilot Capt Kevin Kuhlman, ranges closed
(Scottish bank holiday) and weather too bad for low level.
20 Jan 89: 4.4 hrs in KC-135R, refueled 2 A-10 's and 3 F-16 's over Germany.
27 Jan 89: 5.1 hrs in EC-135, 10 ACCS, pilot Major Henry.
2 Feb 89: 1.5 hrs in F-111, pilot Capt Kevin "too cool" Kuhlman, IFE/air abort due to left engine overspeed.
15 Feb 89: 1.2 hrs in UC-21 with Army, to Burtonwood Military Community.
16 Feb 89: 1.0 hrs in UC-21 with Army, returning from Burtonwood Military Community.
Shuttle Support Mission to Banjul, The Gambia
10 Mar 89: -- hrs in C-130E with Bravo Squadron, to Rota NS,
Spain. Pilot Lt Col Al Jones, Lt Bill Price, Nav Capt Aikens.
11 Mar 89: -- hrs in C-130E with above crew from Rota NS to
Yondum Airport, Banjul, The Gambia in support of the Space Shuttle
15 Mar 89: -- hrs in C-130E with above crew on return from The Gambia to Rota NS, Spain.
16 Mar 89: -- hrs in C-130E with above crew returning from Rota NS to RAF Mildenhall, via RAF Woodbridge.
RAF Mildenhall, Suffolk County, England
17 Mar 89: 2.0 hrs in F-111F simulator
29 Mar 89: 2.7 hrs in F-111F; pilot Capt Haina.
? May 89: F-111F with Major French
9 Jun 89: 3.3 hrs in F-111F with Capt Couture (Cooter); refueled over
Germany (Sandy Track) and over Wainfleet.
11 Jul 89: "Fini flight" in EC-135; 6.5 hrs; pilot Dan Reilly, 10 ACCS.
17 Jul 89: Two F-111F sorties; both with Capt Tom Giattino, Holbeach, low level to RAF Upper Heyford, where we had lunch, and then
back to RAF Lakenheath. Lead ship piloted by Lt Col Jim Brechwald,
squadron commander and WSO Mike Conway. 2.5 hrs and 2.7 hrs (total:
5.2 hrs). “Fini flight" in F-111F.
Database Flight Hours RAF Lakenheath / Mildenhall
Another view of my flying hours at RAF Lakenheath / Mildenhall.
This includes all types of aircraft and repeats most of the information above
10/28/86 EC-135 7.1 hours
10/28/86 KC-135 4.5 hours
11/12/ 86 C-23 (Sherpa) 2.5 hours
11/13/86 C-141 1.1 hours
11/20/86 EC-135 3.2 hours
12/11/86 EC-135 2.6 hours
12/23/86 C-9 hours 1.2
12/24/86 C-141 10 hours
1/6/87 EC-135 7.3 hours
1/12/87 EC-135 3.7 hours
2/12/87 EC-135 5.3 hours
3/17/87 EC-135 7.5 hours Comments: With the 10 ACCS
3/24/87 UC-12 3.4 hours Comments: Travel to clinic in eastern England; landing at Liverpool
3/31/87 EC-135 5.3 hours
4/22/87 EC-135 5.9 hours Pilots: Reilly / Aton
4/23/87 EC-135 5.5 hours Pilots: O’Neil / Kennedy
5/14/87 MC-130E 8 hours Pilot: Major Scott Low level, night vision goggles, special forces
7/24/87 EC-135H 3.5 hours Colonel Kealoha / Lt Col Marshall / Ebert Comments: Pilot proficiency with wing commander 9/24/87 F-111F 2 hours Lt Col Lee Konya Bombing Range, Konya, Turkey; my first F-111F flight 9/29/87 KC-135R 3.8 hours Capt Damico Refueled B-52 over Atlantic Ocean
10/14/87 EC-135A N/R (probably 8.0 hours) Major Munk To Lajes Field, Azores
10/15/87 EC-135A N/R (probably 8.0 hours) Capt Lusso Return from Lajes Field, Azores, via Stuttgart, Germany, to RAF Mildenhall
11/9/87 EC-135H 5.7 hours McNeil / Munk / Peeke / Rosenberg / Lauth / Fallon / Ebert Tail # 61-0286; four sorties; pilot sortie; wives on board
4/11/88 C-21A 3.4 hours Ramstein Air Base, Germany, to Marrakech, Morocco (NASA funded)
5/6/88 EC-135 6.1 hours Marshall / Kealoha / Hoffman / Stevens “Fini flight” for Lt Col “Butch” Marshall
6/24/88 EC-135 3.8 hours
6/29/88 KC-135Q 2.3 hours Major Maude Refueled SR-71
7/8/88 EC-135H 5.8 hours Lauro / Lusso / Hawk
8/17/88 F-111F 2.1 hours Capt Kent Haina Tain Range, Scotland
9/3/88 EC-135H 4.8 hours Reilly / Fallon To Lajes
9/3/88 EC-135H 3.1 hours Reilly / Fallon Return from Lajes
9/9/88 EC-135H 0.8 hour Rosenberg / Reilly Short flight due to something burning 9/21/88 F-111F 2.5 hours Capt Bratun Single ship, low level, Rosehearty Range
10/6/88 EC-135H 5.4 hours Cauth / Henry With Colonel Dan Cohen, Flight Surgeon
11/17/88 UC-21 2.1 hours Swaggerty Liverpool, Burtonwood Military Community 12/1/88 F-111F 2.3 hours Capt Haina No INS 12/15/88 UC-21A 1.5 hours Capt Schwarz, Lt Conli To Burtonwood
12/16/88 UC-21A 1.2 hours Capt Schwarz, Lt Conli Nite flight, return to RAF Lakenheath from Burtonwood
1/3/89 F-111F 2.9 hours Capt Kevin “Too Cool” Kuhlman High level formation only
1/20/89 KC-135R 4.4 hours Major Hix
1/27/89 EC-135 6.1 hours Henry
2/2/89 F-111F 1.5 hours Kevin Kuhlman
2/15/89 UC-21A 1.2 hours To Burtonwood 2/15/89 UC-21A 1.0 hour Return from Burtonwood
3/10/89 C-130E N/R (probably around 3.0 hours) To Rota NS, Spain (Space Shuttle support)
3/11/89 C-130E N/R (probably around 6.0 hours) Lt Col Al Jones To Vandum Airport, Banjul, The Gambia, shuttle support
3/15/89 C-130E N/R (probably around three hours) Lt Col Al Jones From The Gambia to Rota NS, Spain
3/16/89 C-13E N/R (probably around 3.0 hours) Lt Col Al Jones From Rota NS, Spain, to RAF Mildenhall, England
3/17/89 F-111F (Simulator) 2.0 hours Simulator
3/29/89 F-111F 2.7 hours Capt Haina 4 RLD.
5/1/89 F-111F 3.0 hours Major French
6/9/89 F-111F 3 hours Capt Couture Air-refueled, three VLD’s on target on Wainfleet
7/1/89 F-111F 3.0 hours
10/1/89 F-15D 1.0 hour First F-15 flight back at Bitburg 10/2/89 KC-135 2.6 hours
12/2/89 C-9 6.2 hours Capt O’Neal / Capt Powell
12/3/89 C-9 6.2 hours Capt O’Neal / Capt Powell Air Evac, to Incirlik, RON
12/5/89 F-15D 1 hour Capt Jim Firth 53 TFW / 1 v 1
4/18/96 E-3B 8.5 hours AWACS, eastern Turkey, Operation PROVIDE COMFORT
Tesla: link here. Down 5% in early morning trading.
Apple: feeling competition pressure in China. Cut iPhone prices in China. This comes after the US holiday season. Shares slide 2%. Headlines suggest the world as we know it is ending.
**************************************** Back to the Bakken
WTI: $73.62. Whoo-hoo! What's up? No idea why (the sudden jump in price). Oil rallies despite large jump in fuel inventories. Over at oilprice.com. Up $1.90 today; up 2.65%.
Wells coming off confidential:
Friday, January 3, 2025: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 4 for the year,
40081, conf, Hess, EN-Trout-157-93-3130H-2,
40080, conf, Hess, EN-Trout-157-93-3130H-3,
Thursday, January 2, 2025: 2 for the month, two for the quarter, two for the year,
17309, conf, BR, Washburn 44-36H,
Wednesday, January 1, 2025: 1 for the month, one for the quarter, one for the year,
After a decade-long odyssey and a cost-per-mile that must make
public-sector accountants in Ottawa wince, the Canadian government-owned
Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) — which nearly tripled the
capacity of the original Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP) from Alberta to
the British Columbia (BC) coast — finally came into service in May 2024.
As one of Canada’s most anticipated energy infrastructure projects in
many years, the 590-Mb/d TMX pipeline — built alongside the
long-standing 300-Mb/d TMP — was widely touted by its advocates as a
surefire way to boost exports of Western Canadian crude and reduce the
nation’s near-complete reliance on exporting crude oil to — and through —
its primary customer, the U.S. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss some of
the surprising (and not so surprising) market developments since the
expansion project started.
******************************** The RBN Energy's Top Ten Prognostications
10. Big ammonia ships will replace orders for LPG carriers.
This phenomenon is already underway, and it’s gaining steam. In 2024,
orders for the workhorse vessel of international propane and butane
shipments, the Very Large Gas Carrier, or VLGC, dropped like a rock. But
at the same time, contracts for Very Large Ammonia Carriers (VLACs)
skyrocketed to 34 new orders, expanding the VLAC orderbook to 55. We
expect there will be many more VLAC orders coming in 2025, and that VLGC
orders will evaporate. So what’s going on? These VLACs are not cheap,
running between $120-125 million each. Is there really that much new
ammonia production that needs to be shipped around the world? Hardly.
Most big ammonia projects are experiencing delays or are just
languishing, waiting for the right combination of subsidies and economic
incentives to get them off the ground. So why the frenzy around ammonia
shipping? It turns out that these new VLACs can easily flip to LPG
service — so if promised big ammonia shipments are years in the future,
no problem. In the meantime, they will just keep busy moving LPGs. Could
that result in an overbuild of ships in LPG service? Yup, sure could.
Just not in 2025.
9. Not enough new LNG capacity coming in 2025 to support the current natural gas forward curve.
In the prognostication business, there’s nothing more dangerous than
predictions about forward prices, but sometimes you’ve just got to do
it. The 2025 natural gas forward curve predicts a $1/MMBtu increase over
2024, from $2.40/MMBtu to $3.40/MMBtu. While this might have seemed
plausible with three new LNG export facilities coming on, which is what
we expected in early 2024, one delay after another has shifted the
timeline. Golden Pass won’t start taking feedgas until late 2025 at
best, and Plaquemines LNG, which recently shipped its first cargo, will
take 18 months to ramp up fully. The one bright spot is Cheniere’s
Corpus Christi Stage III expansion, with Train 1 producing its first LNG
in late December (with “substantial completion” of the train to follow
by the end of Q1 2025) and two more trains coming online later in the
year. But add it all up and ramp actual flows based on what we’ve seen
in the past, and on average over 12 months we are talking only 1.6 Bcf/d
of new capacity in 2025 over 2024. That is slightly less than the
nearly 1.9 Bcf/d growth in U.S. gas production we are projecting, coming
primarily from the Permian and Eagle Ford. Of course, an onslaught of
cold weather or a hot summer could wipe out 0.3 Bcf/d of market length
in a heartbeat. But all things being equal, the odds of a $1/MMBtu
increase in natural gas prices next year driven by growth in LNG exports
looks pretty dicey.
8. LPG terminaling rates are high and will stay that way through 2025.
7. The Midland-to-Houston WTI price differential will justify pipeline capacity expansion.
6. No offshore SPM crude oil terminal will be sanctioned in 2025.
We really hope to be proved wrong on this one, but it just looks like
this is a case where the benefits do not justify the cost. Since 2018,
numerous offshore single-point mooring (SPM) terminals have been
proposed along the Gulf Coast to fully load a Very Large Crude Carrier
(VLCC) without reverse lightering. Currently, only the Louisiana
Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) can handle VLCCs but it is limited to two ships
per month on average, far below the one per day a couple of the
SPMs could manage. The remaining projects — Energy Transfer’s Blue
Marlin, Sentinel Midstream’s Texas GulfLink, Phillips 66’s Bluewater
Texas, and Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) — have faced
regulatory hurdles but made progress, with SPOT receiving its U.S.
Maritime Administration (MARAD) license in April. Yet none have reached a
final investment decision (FID) after nearly seven years of
development. The problem is shifting market dynamics. Initially, U.S.
crude exports to Asia (15,000 nautical miles from the Gulf Coast)
justified VLCC efficiencies, but Europe now takes 45% of exports
compared to 40% to Asia, driven by demand shifts due to the Ukraine war
and declining North Sea production. The shorter 5,000-nautical-mile trip
to Europe diminishes the economic advantage of VLCCs, making shippers
hesitant to commit to long-term capacity deals for the SPM terminals.
Granted there are still good reasons for one or more of the SPMs to be
sanctioned. But it is more difficult today to get shippers signed up
than it originally looked, and that’s a situation that will likely get
worse before it gets better.
5. There's more hype than Mcfs in the natural gas for data centers' gold rush.
4. At least in the short term, the future of US hydrogen production is blue.
This prognostication title is our feeble attempt at a double entendre,
of sorts. Yup, the future of hydrogen is blue. From one perspective,
it’s blue because blue hydrogen projects — those producing hydrogen from
natural gas with emissions mitigated by carbon capture — are expected
to produce far more hydrogen than green hydrogen projects, which use
electrolysis powered by renewable energy. And from another perspective,
the clean hydrogen outlook is blue, as in “It’s got the blues,” because
progress on subsidies and tax breaks tied to hydrogen development has
been painfully slow, with convoluted rulemaking casting doubt on whether
the federal government’s hydrogen initiatives will happen at all.
Despite blue hydrogen dominating near-term capacity projections, with
about two-thirds of potential output tied to such projects, challenges
loom large. The CO2 emissions from these projects must be permanently
sequestered — stored forever in deep underground formations. But
progress has been hampered by long permitting delays and limited project
approvals. There’s also much uncertainty around the 45V tax credit for
clean hydrogen, the focus of heated debate since the Inflation Reduction
Act (IRA) passed in August 2022. Final rules were expected by year-end
but did not materialize. And of course, who knows what will happen when
President-elect Trump takes office. He has been skeptical of
clean-energy initiatives in general and the IRA specifically, so 2025
looks to be a blue year for hydrogen, unless some of the big project
developers succeed in lobbying for positive changes to the permitting
process.
3. Ethane prices are set for a strong 2025, but key markets must align.
2. Permian natural gas prices will be back sooner than expected.
2024 was an ugly year for natural gas prices in the Permian Basin.
Pipeline capacity was maxed out, forcing producers without contractual
capacity to pay to have their gas taken away, with Waha prices settling
below zero 42% of the time and averaging minus $0.53/MMBtu from March to
September.
The new 2.5-Bcf/d Matterhorn Express pipeline, launched in
October, offered only partial relief as maintenance on other pipelines
kept capacity constrained, resulting in persistently low prices through
mid-November. Even after a modest recovery from late November through
most of December, Waha prices dropped below $1/MMBtu in the last few
days of the year. Going into 2025, with Matterhorn running at full
capacity, positive prices should dominate most of the year. However,
periods of pipeline maintenance are likely to create more rounds of
price volatility, including occasional dips below zero.
Relief should
come in 2026 with two new capacity additions: a 570-MMcf/d expansion of
Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline to South Texas’s Agua
Dulce hub and the 2.5-Bcf/d Blackcomb pipeline from WhiteWater and
Targa, also targeting Agua Dulce.
Until then, rising associated gas
production will keep the pressure on, with Permian gas output expected
to hit takeaway capacity limits between December 2025 and February 2026,
raising the risk of prolonged negative pricing until mid-2026 when the
new capacity is operational.
1. Trump's 2025 energy goals face new industry realities.
