Record Snowfall In Colorado, Wyoming, Minnesota, Wyoming, And Texas -- March 17, 2021

"Our grandchildren will never see snow." -- Patrick Kennedy some years ago. 

Now this: Record snowfall in Wyoming, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Texas; link here.

File: GlobalWarming_2020_2021.

****************************
Federal Tax Deadline Delayed

Maybe that's why futures for the three major indices are "up" tonight. 

Later: dropping a bit; NASDAQ futures negative. Oh, well. 

Good luck to all. See  you in the a.m.

**************************************
Wall Street Journal Headlines

March 17, 2021:

• Supply chain woes slam global manufacturing
• Texas deep freeze: triggers plastics shortage (so you think peak oil demand is so yesterday?)
• backlogs at California ports
• Covid's origins in China: looks like Trump was correct again
• Fed hold steady on interest rates and bond purchases
• gasoline demand has peaked -- IEA; for the archives
• FTC unlikely to take Qualcomm case to US Supreme Court (Qualcomm wins)
• giant jeans are making a comeback 

********************************
Most Interesting Energy Story Right Now

Enbridge Line 5.

Link here.

ENB hit a 52-week high today.

A Zavanna George Well In Stockyard Creek Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- March 17, 2021

This page will not be updated. The Zavanna George wells in Stockyard Creek, southeast of Williston, are tracked here.  

Purpose of this post is to update one well. Previously posted: this well was permitted back on December 12, 2011. It has recently gone over 500K bbls cum crude oil.

• 22044, 700, Zavanna, George 19-30 1H, Stockyard Creek, t10/12; cum 517K 1/21; no evidence this well was re-fracked: a) production jump did not exceed newly fracked offset wells; b) FracFocus: only frack was in 2012; c) no sundry form at NDIC to suggest a re-frack; originally fracked 8/30/2012  - 8/30/2012 (no typo; one day; open hole).
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	13117	12458	23146	29601	13844	2627
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	10493	9604	27184	19742	11788	1416
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	6884	6371	34181	8450	6318	1685
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	477	45	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	8	163	87	4441	142	17	36
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	3912	3912	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	25	1892	2107	1580	2041	1481	187
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	3352	3208	2283	4409	3912	35

I was curious. After that jump in production, how fast did production decline. Here is the production since 8/19:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	5890	5637	7062	32797	14601	876
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	6972	6633	7569	34183	17926	145
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	8269	7741	8186	37144	19614	200
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	5545	5425	5590	25676	9460	247
BAKKEN	9-2020	11	129	123	327	3731	463	125
BAKKEN	8-2020	26	5135	4784	5262	23871	8772	92
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	6845	6866	6991	30045	12913	320
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	3868	3654	5621	20146	9536	659
BAKKEN	5-2020	6	339	249	1092	4403	1910	95
BAKKEN	4-2020	7	758	605	603	3421	1661	13
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	8553	8635	8319	32482	13932	45
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	5265	5240	5620	26589	11406	61
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	7583	7406	8356	30550	12008	2065
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	11262	10159	12784	36382	17570	403
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	12361	12352	13368	33279	18093	35
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	11160	11196	13340	30485	15585	892
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	13606	13079	17927	30935	15523	1606
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	13117	12458	23146	29601	13844	2627

Production is actually maintaining pretty nicely. Especially considering this well has never been re-fracked.

Federal Tax Deadline -- Extended -- For Tax Year 2020

Federal tax filing deadline extended for tax year 2020:

• Texas and other FEMA-designated areas as defined by the IRS: June 15, 2021
  
• rest of nation: May 17, 2021
  

Liberty Resources Management With Two New Permits -- March 17, 2021

Active rigs:

$64.57	3/17/2021	03/17/2020	03/17/2019	03/17/2018	03/17/2017
Active Rigs	17	56	65	58	47

Two new permits, #38211 - #38212, inclusive:

• Operator: Liberty Resources Management
• Field: Temple (Williams)
• Comment:
• Liberty Resources has permits for two Elroy wells in lot 1 section 6-158-95, 300' FNL and between 1123' and 1147' FEL, in Temple oil field

Two permits renewed:

• Lime Rock Resources: a State Dvorak permit in Dunn County;
• XTO: a Frisinger permit in Williams County;

This Is What The Bakken Is All About -- Re-Fracks; Re-Entry Wells; Multiple Formations -- March 17, 2021

This well, originally targeting the Silurian, was drilled in 1988 -- that's thirty-three years ago -- and then re-entered, targeting the Three Forks in 2008, twenty years later, and, then, apparently, re-entered and/or re-fracked again, in 11/20, data not yet posted.. 

The well:

• 11983, 220, Petro-Hunt, USA 5D-4-4HR, Charlson, SILURIAN, t7/88; cum 124K 5/08;
• 11983, 60, Petro-Hunt, USA 5D-4-4HR, Charlson, THREE FORKS, t5/08; cum 265K 1/21; open hole frack, 550,000 pounds proppant; this well was plugged back and re-drilled as a Three Forks lateral in 2008; an open hole frack;
• sundry form dated June 15, 2014: company says it plans to come back and re-frack this well;
  
• 11983, September, 2019: taken off line; no sundry form regarding the re-frack and FracFocus not yet reporting the new frack;
  
• 11983, November, 2020; returned to production; look at the huge jump in production; 
  

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	26899	26885	5880	34710	34493	1
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	22976	23059	7469	27542	27319	7
BAKKEN	11-2020	8	2685	2325	1226	1977	1924	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	18	451	799	30	125	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	829	683	140	7755	0	7546
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	947	958	85	8918	0	8702
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	916	861	105	8053	0	7837

*********************
From The File Report

Sundry form, June 9, 2014: company plans to re-frack this well; the well had been plugged but then re-drilled as a Three Forks lateral in 2008; an open hole frack was originally performed on 7/1/7/2008.

Sundry form, August 6, 2008: stimulation report; open-hole frack; <800,000 lbs proppant; Three Forks, IP: 60 (no typo); the well had originally been drilled by Texaco in 1988 and completed in the Interlake (Silurian). Petro-Hunt bought the well and produced it until late in 2007. Petro-Hunt plugged the Interlake and cut a window in the casing, built a curve to intersect the Three Forks. Placed on a pump, 5/21/2008; the well name was changed to USA 5D-4-4HR after completion to the Bakken-Three Forks.

Geologic summary, the 2008 re-drill to the Three Forks:

• one section lateral; a total measured depth, 14,790'
• drilling the curve was incredibly challenging;
• drilling the curve began at 1:00 a.m., January 19, 2007 (sic) -- probably supposed to be 2008
• January 21, 2008 -- still drilling the curve, and challenges continued
• January 25, 2008 -- still drilling the curve
• operators became concerned with high upper Bakken shale gas of 4,885 units
• the Three Forks was finally encountered at 10,117 feet, approx 13 feet high to prognosis;
• "numerous issues were encountered with the gas equipment and extremely cold weather conditions"
• the high gas readings at 10,134' MD to 10,140' MD may have been due to issues with the analyzer and the cold conditions; once the analyzer was replaced gas seemed to stabilize around 550 to 900 units with connection gases averaging 4,700 units;
• completion of the curve: date not provided, but drilling the lateral resumed on January 31, 2008, at 9:30 a.m.
• a maximum trip gas of 5,067 units with an 8-foot flare noted
• the lateral: drilling the lateral, background gas ranted between 3,300 and 4,600 units; connection gases decreased slightly, ranging between 4,100 and 6,100 units
• at MD of 12,992': background gas ranged between 5,000 and 7,000 units with connection gases between 6,400 and 7,200 units; a 15' to 20' flare seen
• maximum trip gas of 7,441 units at 12,257'
• connection gases ranged between 6,600 and 8,019 units; flares seen at almost all connections and while drilling ahead;
• drilling as slow at 8 to 11 minutes to drill one foot;
• resuming drilling on February 19, 2008, rate of penetration was 3 to 10 minutes per foot
• TD: February 23, 2008, 4:00 a.m. CT; 14,790 feet TD.
  

17144: Nice Jump In Production -- March 17, 2021

17144: huge jump in production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2020	22	6029	5430	3524	6937	2046	4686
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	25	421	696	163	497	0	351
BAKKEN	6-2020	21	428	441	207	517	0	397
BAKKEN	5-2020	14	295	217	108	343	0	268
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	529	442	235	608	0	424
BAKKEN	3-2020	28	548	674	250	630	0	375
BAKKEN	2-2020	27	477	453	215	551	0	306
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	568	478	235	653	0	368
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	575	693	275	669	0	391

36950: the nearest well to #17144, is 1,320 feet away. #17144 is a short lateral; #36950 is a very long lateral and the middle interval of #36950 exactly paralles #17144, but is 1,320 feet away. Wow. Generally, I look for the "halo" effect at 500' distant. At 1,320 this is almost 3x what one would expect.

EIA Gasoline Demand Not Encouraging -- March 17, 2021

EIA data not corroborating GasBuddy data.

No matter how you spin it, this is not encouraging:

A Closer Look At The CLR Gordon Federal Well That Came Off The Confidential List Today -- March 17, 2021

This page will not be updated.

The CLR Gordon Federal wells are tracked here.

The Gordon Federal pad "today":

The well:

• 36096, 2,117/F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 12-5H1, Haystack Butte, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 76K 1/21; fracked, 3/1/20 - 3/9/20; 8.4 million gallons of water; 87.4% water by mass; 37 stages; target: Three Forks first bench; within CLR's Rocket prospect
  
• from the file report
• TD: 21,966'
• Three Forks, geologic top: 11,239'
• spud date: November 5, 2019
• TD date: November 27, 2019
• a great description in the narrative about the challenges of drilling the lateral;
  

See this post from yesterday,  Tuesday, March 16, 2021, two new Gordon Federal wells, the parent well and the daughter wells.

Early production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	33427	33289	33566	56937	52693	4244
BAKKEN	12-2020	28	17175	17171	19973	28692	25195	3497
BAKKEN	11-2020	19	24794	24641	25697	39148	33977	5171
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	2	169	169	727	0	0	0

The Never-Ending Pandemic -- March 17, 2021

Jet Fuel Delivered -- Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- March 17, 2021

Updates

March 19, 2021: mystery solved. 

Original Post

Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here. 

• weekly US crude oil in storage increased by 2.4 million bbls;
  
• US crude oil in storage goes over 500.8 million bbls, 6% above the five-year average;
  
• refiners operating at 76.1% operable capacity;
  
• distillate fuel inventories increased by  0.3 million; distillate inventories at 2% below five-year average
  
• jet fuel supplied was down 36.2% compared with same four-week period last year;

Most concerning data point from today's report: jet fuel delivered. The number had been improving since the beginning of the year, but dropped precipitously in the most recent report. One wonders if this is still a bit of a hangover from the Texas Deep Freeze even as other fossil fuel product sectors improve following that unfavorable event. 

Those $7,000 Utility Bills? Happy St Patrick's Day -- March 17, 2021

Link here to The Dallas Morning News.

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Morning Edition -- March 17, 2021

CORN! China books 1.16 million metric tons of US corn, first big flash sale in weeks. Link here. 

Natural gas pipelines: four new US natural gas pipelines come on line. Link to Charles Kennedy.

India: will cut Saudi Arabian oil imports, and buy more from US. Link here. Sulfur content? ULSD ultra light sulfur diesel? Also here at Bloomberg.

Indian crude purchases from Saudi Arabia dropped 36% in January from the previous month, while U.S. imports more than doubled, government data show.

Reuters reported earlier that Indian state-run refiners planned to cut purchases from the kingdom by a quarter to about 10.8 million barrels in May.

Around 86% of Indian oil imports last year were from OPEC+ members, with 19% coming from Saudi Arabia, according to government data. New Delhi has repeatedly called for OPEC+ to pump more crude to stop prices from rising too high, but its pleas have fallen on deaf ears with Riyadh extending its supply cuts and raising premiums for its crude.

Canadian housing! Link here. Prices surging. 

US Retail Sales Surged In January, 2021 -- The Initial 5.3% Estimate Was Revised Upward To 7.6% -- March 17, 2021

Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here. 

• weekly US crude oil in storage increased by 2.4 million bbls;
  
• US crude oil in storage goes over 500.8 million bbls, 6% above the five-year average;
  
• refiners operating at 76.1% operable capacity;
  
• distillate fuel inventories increased by  0.3 million; distillate inventories at 2% below five-year average
  
• jet fuel supplied was down 36.2% compared with same four-week period last year;
  

Shale conundrum: from Rigzone. 

Shale’s newfound prudence after last year’s crash is putting producers in the unusual situation of reducing oil output just as prices surge.

More focused than ever on keeping spending in check, shale drillers haven’t been boring new wells fast enough to keep up with output declines in older ones. So, next month, their combined production will edge lower by 47,000 barrels a day to about 7.46 million, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That’s despite an oil price jump of more than 30% this year.

The impact of the coronavirus on energy consumption was so bad last year that several heavily indebted shale producers went under after years of being bankrolled by Wall Street. Now, producers don’t seem to be in a rush to start another boom, and their backers aren’t either. That’s good news for Saudi Arabia, which has sought to bring prices up without unleashing a new supply glut.

“We are still observing only about 50% of last year’s rig count activity,” EIA analyst Jozef Lieskovsky said by email. “With such a low rig count, even with the increased productivity, production declines in all regions are possible.”

Retail sales: another non-story. Link here. Did anyone even see this? 

Revisions published Tuesday now show retail sales in January increased 7.6% over the prior month compared to initial estimates of a 5.3% increase, ... so this 2.3% upward revision to January's data would've challenged just about any month's report to look good on a headline basis. 

Let alone a report hurt by historically disruptive weather and fading fiscal stimulus. 

"When you have trillions in stimulus going out the door and into consumer pockets at various points, sales will tend to be lumpy." And so strange comps are worth keeping in mind if we start to see retail sales figures go haywire in March or April.

CLR Reporting Another Nice Gordon Federal Well -- March 17, 2021

Active rigs:

$64.51	3/17/2021	03/17/2020	03/17/2019	03/17/2018	03/17/2017
Active Rigs	17	56	65	58	47

One well coming off confidential list today -- Wednesday, March 17, 2021: 18 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 74 for the year.

• 36096, F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 12-5H1, Haystack Butte, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 76K 1/21;

RBN Energy: inbound pipelines tothe Patoka crude oi hub, part 2.  

The crude oil hub in Patoka, IL, is in many ways a smaller version of the hub in Cushing, OK. 

Like its larger sibling, Patoka receives a broad variety of crudes from Western Canada, the Bakken, and other production areas, stores and blends oil, and sends it out to refineries and Gulf Coast terminals tied to export docks. 

In Patoka’s case, there are only five major incoming pipelines that directly connect to the hub, but many of them receive crude from a number of upstream systems, some as far away as the Alberta oil sands. Important for Patoka’s future, a few of the pipelines feeding the hub are being expanded. Today, we continue our series on the second-largest oil hub in PADD 2 with a look at the pipelines that flow into Patoka and the sourcing of their crude.