Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Wednesday Night -- Mid-December -- A Cold Front Comes Through Dallas -- December 18, 2024

Locator: 44483B.

Before we get started, for the archives, a link to an essay in the current issue of Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024, p. 23, by Jeffrey H. Anderson, "Project 2025 Reconsidered." The lede notes that the wiki entry for "Project 2025" is an astonishing 56 pages long, including references, when printed out. Anderson doesn't mention the font or the pitch but still .... 56 pages long. Those references? There are 262 references

Now, back to the blog entry.

I guess the market imploded today. I haven't checked. I've only seen the headlines and read e-mail sent to me. First thought: everything JPow said today was already expected; there were no surprises. So, his remarks were only part of the reason why the market imploded. But there's another reason. I know what that reason is. Not going to mention it. I hate the push back. But again, I know I'm right. Hint: we'll know more by midnight, December 20, 2024. [Later, 11:35 p.m. CST, nailed it. Wow, that was fast.]

Here in Texas, the "weatherman" is talking about the winter warning in NORTHDAKOTA. He must like the word. He said it several times, NORTHDAKOTA. LOL. Meanwhile, the cold front that has moved into north Dallas has forced some folks to change from short-sleeve shirts to long-sleeve shirts. [Not me. I'm still wearing my camiseta de manga corta with the Vanderbilt logo on it.]

I'm in a great mood. I'm reading this week's issue of the Claremont Review of Books. I had planned to let my subscription lapse. Nope, I'm keeping it (the subscription). The writing is so much better than what I find in the New York Review of Books, and unlike the latter, the Claremont Review actually reviews books. I've just ordered a book from Amazon -- a book that was reviewed in the current issue of the Claremont Review -- a quarterly.

Speaking of which, I was reading Powerline on line this morning about 4:00 a.m. and one of the "founders" of the site said he couldn't get past the New York Times paywall. Are you kidding me? A journalist that doesn't subscribe to the on-line New York Times. You have to be kidding me. Even I subscribe to The New York Times AND The Washington Post.

One of several great essays in the current issue of Claremont Review is an essay by Christopher Caldwell, "Speaking Trumpian." It explains a lot. Trump-haters who refuse to read the article do so at their own peril. [Are you listening Whoopi?]

Quick: name the two most important events that happened in the month of April, 1865. 

Meanwhile, it's another Lana Del Rey night. Seriously. She [Lana Del Rey] must scare the heck out of Taylor Swift. One swings to teenie boppers and their 45-year-old dads; the other swings with felons. Apparently it's cool to be a felon these days. Just ask Luigi Mangione -- Luigi -- you can't make this stuff up -- or Hunter. Or, I guess, The Donald. LOL. 

By the way, speaking of ordering a book from Amazon. Atlantic, or is it The Atlantic. Whatever. The Atlantic has an article "why online returns are a hassle now." Yes, I know what they're talking about and my comments really aren't relevant but my experience is important nonetheless -- are you listening Jeff Bezos.? Amazon is so incredibly good about getting my orders to me -- I've talked about this before -- I no longer track my orders. I'm sure I'm in the top 1% of Amazon customers ... okay maybe top 10% -- and I've never missed a package from Amazon. I won't even tell Amazon if I miss a package. It's happened twice, and both times I tracked the package down -- delivered to the wrong unit in our apartment complex. Jeff, whatever you're doing, keep it up.

McDonald's: a ten-piece order of chicken McNuggets for $1.00. Yes, you read that correctly. a ten-piece order of chicken McNuggets for $1.00. McDonald's prices are coming down faster than Biden's poll numbers. Ever since he pardoned his son. The one that didn't die of brain cancer due to Agent Orange in Iraq. 

Time for a musical interlude. Okay, we'll do that later. Can't decide which one to feature. Maybe "Rasputin" by Bony M.

Reminder: Chord Energy is now Oasis, Whiting, and Enerplus. I hope I live long enough to see the entire Bakken play "owned" by one operator.

After years of working on it, I finally have the kitchen exactly like I want it. 

It is so fun to cook (not necessarily bake) when the kitchen is set up perfectly. I'm watching some YouTube videos in the background and it just dawned on me -- for the perfect cooking experience, your kitchen needs to be arranged like an orchestra -- the strings, the woodwinds, the brass, the percussion. The most used herbs and spices and soy sauces and balsamic vinegars need to be out on the counter to the right. The pots and pans and woks needs to be immediately available hanging from the ceiling or in wide cabinets on either side of la estufa. The utensils -- separated by "function" on the counter out in the open -- serving spoons, slotted spoons, serving forks, chopsticks, spatulas -- and again, out in the open, immediately available. No opening drawers looking for something while cooking. Serving bowls out on the counter toward the dining room table.
If Target could "run" their stores like they "run" their ads between YouTube vidoes, Target would be much better shopping experience. Not gonna happen.

I wonder. It seems the group who I seldom see covered: The Mamas and The Papas. That suggests to me that their hits were done so well no one dares cover them. Linda Ronstadt, just the opposite. Perhaps the best rock-and-roll vocalist didn't write any of her own hits (needs to be fact checked) but her covers became the standards. Pretty amazing when you think about it. 

Jesse Watters is still the best "political talk show" out there. A better entertainer than Rush Limbaugh, but not a better analyst. There was no political analyst better than Rush. He unilaterally saved the US from Hillary. Having said that, I still try to catch the first fifteen minutes of The View

If I want to "re-live" my halcyon days in southern California, I turn to Fleetwood Mac. "Go Your Own Way" and "Tusk." From where do these folks spring? Supernatural. Stevie Nicks, Lindsey Buckingham, Christine McVie. Wow. 

On Hulu now, a Leonard Cohen documentary, "Hallelujah." Link here to wiki.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.58.

Active rigs: 37.

Six new permits, #41437 - #41442, inclusive:

  • Operators: Whiting (4); Hess (2):
  • Fields: Foreman Butte (McKenzie); Wheelock (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for two GO-Seaton wells, SWSW 34-157-98, 
      • to be sited 330 FSL and 1163 FWL, and 330 FSl and 1196 FWL;
    • Whiting (Chord Energy) has permits for four Jefferson Federal wells, SESW 14-150-103, 
      • to be sited 975/9978 FSL and 1325/1424 FWL.

Two producing wells completed:

  • 34303, 2,332, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23G,
  • 34306, 1,285, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23B, 

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- December 18, 2024

Locator: 44482CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

Those stranded astronauts? They've been stranded another month -- now it's been pushed back from February to March. That will be eight months. That's the earliest. This is simply bizarre. One year of their life they will never get back. No medical emergency so far; this cannot last forever. But, of course, that raises the issue: does NASA even have a plan B for stranded astronauts.

Housing starts, permits: yada, yada, yada.  

US current account -- Trump is right again-- even before he's sworn in: one of the biggest current account deficits ever. A negative $310.95 billion vs a negative $286.6 estimate. This explains Trump's focus on tariffs. This is fascinating. This is the biggest story today that won't be reported

The only thing I'm following today: will AAPL turn green before the end of the day?

*********************
History
Missouri Compromise: 1820 (better name: the Missouri-Maine Act)
Kansas-Nebraska Act: 1854
Dred Soctt: 1857

Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024, p. 59: "The Great Miscalculation," book review by Christopher Flannery. The book:

  • A Hell of a Storm: The Battle for Kansas, the End of the Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, by David S. Brown, Scribner, 352 pages, $32.

I find it astonishing that journalists today seem to be aghast at what the US Supreme Court has done recently with regard to states' rights. It's almost as if journalists no longer read history. Exhibit A:

That 36°30' line? It only applied to the Louisiana Purchase, and thus it only affected "the line" dividing Missouri (to the north) from Arkansas (to the south). Kentucky and a northern slice of Tennessee were also north of the 36°30' line. Virginia, of course, also north of the line, was a slave state at the time these bills were being discussed and passed.

From National Geographic:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- December 18, 2024

Locator: 44481CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

Marvel, Broadcam: JPM's top picks.

Meta, Reddit: MS's top picks.

Robinhood: Keybank names it as its top pick.

Pre-market: it appears the Dow could reverse its 9-day losing streak.

Tea-leaves: nuclear is not in America's future. Certainly not in my investing lifetime.  

Tea-leaves: the US state that could have a huge next four years? Virginia. LDCs.Virginia, a blue state that votes for GOP.

Tea-leaves: the four T's -- Trump, tariffs, taxes, and the wall. Note: "the wall" is a metonym for the entire immigration issue and homeland security. Virginia's governor Glenn Youngkin, extended segment on CNBC this a.m. Setting himself up to run for president in 2024?

Christmas: I think folks are forgetting that Christmas Eve, next Tuesday, is now less than one week away. USPS mailing deadlines have passed. Amazon? Doing just fine. Still same day delivery if one lives near a fulfillment center.

Pet food: have you ever noticed all the new dog food entrants? Not so true for cat food? Why? Dogs, omnivores. Cats, strict carnivores. One choice: tuna in tins. 

In our apartment complex, boxes of Chewy arrive daily. Unlike Amazon, in apartment complexes, Chewy does not deliver to one's front door. Chewy apparently delivers by UPS at common mail center or manager's office. Amazon requires its drivers to deliver to door.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here

Hump Day -- December 18, 2024

Locator: 44480B.

Morning Joe: doing everything he can to survive. For the first time ever (unlikely but not in a very, very long time) Joe Scarborough appears on CNBC for an incredibly long segment with Andrew Ross Sorkin. Don't forget the Ross. Joe Kernan noted that CNBC and MSNBC are both in trouble with Comcast's decision to spin off the cable networks.

Pelosi: hip replacement in Germany; at the US (Army) military hospital in Landstuhl, Germany. PBS. Forbes.

Beirut, 1960s, link here. BleeckerStreet, then.

Measels, Congo. NYT today.

Stagflation: Joe Kernan, CNBC, today. Wow, what does he want? He's starting to sound like a rancher. Or a banker.

The day the music died: Canada pushes out target for net-zero to 2050. Had been 2035. Link here. No paywall here.

Another Biden legacy: Biden's agencies fail to meet fleet EV targets. Link here. Without the paywall.

Biden: hasn't had a positive favorability rating since 2021. Link here.

Long thinking: the WSJ. Nvidia.

Taiwan: power failure. TSMC.

LNG: Trump has it right. How did Biden miss this?  Not how, but "why"?

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.56.

Thursday, December 19, 2024: 27 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 657 for the year

  • 35511, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-9B,
Wednesday, December 18, 2024: 26 for the month; 129 for the quarter, 656 for the year
  • None.

RBN Energy: Chevron's 105-year-old Texas refinery gets a new lease on life

More than 15 years into the Shale Era, the U.S. refining sector’s response to burgeoning production of light, sweet crude oil continues. Earlier this month, Chevron completed the long-planned, $400 million renovation and expansion of the century-old refinery in Pasadena, TX, which the company acquired from Petrobras in 2019. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the refinery’s extensive history, why Chevron bought the facility five years ago, and how the just-finished project will enable the integrated oil and gas giant to make fuller use of its Permian oil bounty.