Sunday, April 16, 2017

Books (Nothing About The Bakken) -- April 16, 2017

One of my favorite weekly columns in The WSJ is the "Five Best: A Personal Choice." This column is written by a guest contributor who provides a list of his/her five favorite/best books, and then defends that choice in a small essay.

This week the contributor is J. Harvie Wilkinson III, a federal judge on the US Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. He is the author of All Falling Faiths: Reflections on the Promise and Failure of the 1960s. (I will look for a used copy at Powell's Bookstore this week while I'm in Portland, Oregon).

His five best:
  • Losing Mum and Pup, Christopher Buckley, 2009
  • The Year of Magical Thinking, Joan Didion, 2005
  • Avid Reader, Robert Gootlieb, 2016  -- this was reviewed elsewhere (The New Yorker? -- incredibly interesting)
  • Yazoo, Willie Morris, from the essay:
He ventures down from New York in 1970 to his boyhood home of Yazoo City, Mississippi, a town of “many broad old streets and beautiful homes” where “the smell of the spring” wraps the senses.
Yazoo City is Goldwater and Wallace country but also more than 50% black, and Morris wonders what changes federal court decisions have brought to daily life.
His verdict on Yazoo City then could be our verdict on America now: Not everything has changed, but not everything is the same.
Morris makes one wonderful discovery: the enduring affection of many blacks for the country that mistreated them and “expressions of love and loyalty to Mississippi as a society worth working for.” White and black teammates exchanging “soul-slaps after touchdowns” may not seem like much, but in another sense it is everything.  
  • And finally, My Grandfather's Son, Clarence Thomas, 2007. From the essay:
Clarence Thomas’s memoir may never meet an equal in raw honesty.
The title expresses in but three words the anguish of a lost generation and the helping hands of grandparents, “nuns, neighbors, teachers, and friends” that, barely, managed to close the parental gap.
The story shows a man who clawed his way from “hunger without the prospect of eating and cold without the prospect of warmth” to become one of the most consequential justices in the history of the Supreme Court.
Alcohol, divorce, insecurity and prejudice threaten to derail the journey; perseverance and the power of conviction ultimately prevail. Part of the memoir is about setting matters straight: “The mob I now faced [at my Senate confirmation hearings] carried no ropes or guns.” Yet “its purpose—to keep the black man in his place—was unchanged.” But alongside any lingering bitterness are an affection for the steadfast Missouri Sen. John Danforth, love for his wife, Virginia, and a capacity for friendship that transcends racial bounds. The book ends, but the final chapters are yet to be told.
Again, note, the individual writing that Clarence Thomas became one of the most consequential justices in the history of the Supreme Court is a Federal appellate judge for the Fourth Circuit.

Is Saudi Aramco IPO Behind Saudi Eagerness For OPEC Cut Extension? -- -- Apirl 6, 2017

I really didn't want to post this article, another piece from (consider the source) but it allowed me to rant again.

The writer is asking whether the Aramco IPO is behind Saudi' eagerness for an OPEC cut extension? Does it matter?

Some data points from the article and earlier articles:
  • "Saudis continued their over-compliance (with the agreed-upon cuts), cutting production to 9.9 million bopd in March, around 100,000 bopd below the agreed-upon monthly quota" [comment: really? considers 100,000 bopd a "meaningful" cut? First, of all, Saudi and other OPEC producers maximized production before announcing cuts; second of all, 100,000 bopd / 10 million bopd = a 1% cut in production; and, finally, that 100,000 bopd cut is easily being made up elsewhere -- even the Bakken can match the 100,000 bopd cut without much effort]
  • OPEC producers have indicated their ideal price target is $60 [in fact, they need $100 oil, would like $80 oil but knowing that won't happen are publicly saying they can get by with $60 oil; good luck; that $60 oil is a yearly average and we are well into the fourth month of the year and Brent might be averaging $54 so far this year]
  • IEA says supply/demand re-balance will occur, but even IEA notes that as the price of oil recovers, even a bit, US production will increase
Everyone has an opinion on this. Mine is this: Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo.

The End Of Light Rail In Our Lifetime?

This is a pretty cool article if you accept the premise (I don't). From the Los Angeles Times, driverless cars will lead to a "garage-less economy."  If behind a paywall google: the future is in ... a parking garage? Here's one way driverless cars will change urban development: no one will own cars and therefore garages will not be needed. If you accept the premise, and again, I don't, driverless cars will also spell the end of light rail. It will simply be too expensive, and not needed. Interestingly enough , that is not discussed in the article which is not surprising. The Los Angeles Times is very much behind light rail.

Light rail? Despite a recent bailout, the Boston subway has a huge debt and is actually considering suspending weekend service.

COP Update From Richard Zeits; COP On Path To Becoming A True Independent -- April 16, 2017

From SeekingAlpha:
  • By selling natural gas assets in Canada and San Juan, COP has effectively become an oil-driven operator in North America
  • Very few dry gas assets are left in the company's North American portfolio
  • While a spike in natural gas prices could make the divestitures look under-priced, the divestitures appear to make financial and operational sense
  • Without access to the industry's leading-edge sweet spots – which were scarce in COP's portfolio - competing in natural gas is a recipe for weak returns

Stetsons and Old Spice

From Jacquielynn Floyd's nice article in today's Dallas Morning News, "What's left behind":

At one time in my life my walk-in closet would have looked like that in the photo above. Not any more. My Stetsons (all two of them are elsewhere) and I have long quit using Old Spice.

QEP Getting Ready To Frack Some New Wells In The Grail -- April 16, 2017

See this post. An earlier post regarding some of these wells is here.

The graphics:

Zooming in:

Atmospheric CO2 Update -- March, 2017 Data

Data here (a dynamic link). It's like watching paint dry, I assume, for folks at Mauna Loa.

Easter Sunday, April 16, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs512993184186

Wells coming off confidential list this week:

Wednesday, April 19, 2017
  • 22496, 148, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 2-35-36-164N-100W, West Ambrose, 4 sections, t2/17; cum 2K over first 28 days, target: upper and middle Three Forks formation; 100% within the TF; 70.5% within the 10' target interval; 3.1% above the target interval; 26.4% below the 10' target interval
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
  • 32833, 3,058, Whiting, Wold 16-7TFH, Banks, 4 sections, 35 stages, 7.25 million lbs, t10/16; cum 108K 2/17; (19468: link here),
Monday, April 17, 2017
  • 28945, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Kostelnak 145-97-32D-29-3H, Little Knife, no production data,
Sunday, April 16, 2017
  • None.
Saturday, April 15, 2017
  • None.

22496, see above, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 2-35-36-164N-100W, West Ambrose:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32833, see above, Whiting, Wold 16-7TFH, Banks:

Oil RunsMCF Sold