Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Weekly API Report? Another "Surprise" -- December 3, 2019

Another surprise -- API reports larger than expected draw.
  • consensus: 1.787 million bbls (note the false precision)
  • actual: 3.72 million bbls (not quite so precise)
WTI: $56.33.

Eight New Permits -- December 3, 2019

Not much time for international press Q&A:

.... and/or Prince Salman does not like long meetings.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5565533963

Eight new permits, #37233 - #37240, inclusive:
  • Operators: Slawson (5); Bruin (3)
  • Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail); Otter (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Slawson has permits for a five-well Orca Federal/Loon Federal pad in section 14-152-92, Big Bend oil field;
    • Bruin has permits for a 3-well Wm Polar pad in section 25-157-101, Otter oil field;
Eight permits renewed:
  • Oasis (6): six Lars permits in Mountrail County
  • Hunt: a Palermo permit in Mountrail County
  • XTO: an FBIR Lawrence permit in Dunn County

The Staggering Bakken; Some Very Nice Bruin Wells In The Antelope Oil Field -- December 3, 2019

The well:
  • 35541, 2,539, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-94-14D-2-15H3, Three Forks B1, 67 stages, 13.4 million lbs, t5/19; cum 193K 10/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The well:
  • 35542, 2,587, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-94-14D-2-13H3, middle Bakken, 67 stages; 16.1 million lbs; t6/19; cum 211K 10/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Staggering Bakken; Some Very Nice WPX Wells In The Antelope Oil Field; Small-To-Moderate Frack -- December 3, 2019

The well:
  • 35545, 3,150, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HZ, 40 stages; 8.3 million lbs, t6/19; cum 185K 10/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The well:
  • 35546, 3,940, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HD, 40 stages, 8.3 million lbs, t6/19; cum 91K 10/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update Of The Antelope Oil Field -- In Progress -- December 3, 2019

The Antelope oil field is tracked here.

  • There are 77.5 sections in that oil field
    • 76 are 640-acre sections (or thereabouts)
    • 3 are half-sections (320 acres or thereabouts)
  • Total: 49,600 acres
  • A rectangle of 10 sections by 8 sections would be 80 sections
    • A section is a mile x a mile
    • Therefore, if the field were a perfect rectangle, it would be about 10 miles x 8 miles.
  • there are six 320-acre spacing units
  • there are ten 640-acre spacing units
  • other than the 320-acre units and the 640-acre units, the rest are 1280-acre units
  • it appears most of the field is also spaced with overlapping 2560-acre units 
There are currently 294 wells in the Antelope oil field.

49,600 acres / 294 wells = one well for every 168.71 acres, or about four wells for every section, or eight wells in every 1280-acre spacing unit.

Monthly production in most recent report: 1,395,082 bbls/month, or 46,502 bopd.

1,395,082/294 =  4,745 bbls//month/well.

From the NDIC monthly production database, September, 2019, data, most recent data available:

In that field the following operators have this number of wells, September, 2019, production in bbls:
  • Bruin: 58 -- 358,406 bbls --
  • BR: 1 -- 4,252 bbls --
  • CLR: 41 --42,421 bbls --
  • Enerplus: 29 -- 124,810 bbls --
  • EOG: 9 -- 61,088 bbls --
  • Hess: 66 -- 187,500 bbls --
  • MRO: 45 -- 219,009 bbls --
  • Petrogulf: 4 -- 11,898 bbls --
  • PetroShale: 6 -- 99,118 bbls --
  • White Butte: 3 -- 6,776 bbls --
  • WPX: 21 -- 201,788 bbls --
  • XTO: 11 -- 78,016 bbls  --
PetroShale's six wells (permit number) and cum and production/most recent month (all six wells are in section 17-152-94; all are 1280-acre spacing except for #11686, quarter section):
  • 33010, 1,391, PetroShale, PetroShale US 12H, t8/19; cum 71K 10/19; 32,703 bbls,
  • 33204, 1,934, PetroShale, PetroShale US 13H, t5/19; cum 118K 10/19; 36,327 bbls,
  • 33005, 1,560, PetroShale, PetroShale US 3H, t3/18; cum 408K 10/19; 11,128 bbls,
  • 33004, 537, PetroShale, PetroShale US 4H, t3/18; cum 319K 10/19; 10,685 bbls,
  • 32767, 2,759, PetroShale, PetroShale US 8H, t1/17; cum 480K 10/19; 7,576 bbls,
  • 11686, 1,82, PetroShale, Pronghorn 1, t12/85 (no typo: December, 1985); cum 175K 10/19; 699 bbls; spacing: 160 acres; vertical well; F;
Sorted by production / well / most recent month:

Crude Oil
White Butte

From the file report, #11686:
  • operator at time of initial spud: General Atlantic Energy Corporation
  • an 80-acre infill well on the Antelope Anticline 
  • a vertical well; not fracked
  • spud date: October 23, 1985
  • cease drilling: November 25, 1985
  • General Atlantic holds the rights only to the Bakken-Sanish. Deeper and shallower pays are held by Amerada.
  • TD: 10,535 feet 
  • open hole completion from 10,430 feet to 10,535 feet
  • IP: 182.5 bbls/24 hours
  • 1992: transferred to Ranch Operating Company from Presidio Exploration
  • July 6, 1995: meets criteria for stripper well status
  • November 13, 2013: letter stating that the well had been re-entered; drilled an additional 20 feet, and perforations shot from 10,520 - 10,533 feet and 10,556 - 10,571 feet
  • May 19, 2016: transferred from Ranch Oil Co. to PetroShale (US) Inc
  • last sundry form of note 
  • status: still flowing;

The Big Stories -- December 3, 2019

At the sidebar at the right, "The Big Stories."  I have not been updating the pages as well as I should but it is interesting how relevant those pages remain. I started the list back in 2013, and periodically update it.

Going through that list, these jump out at me:
  • Mexico could go the way of Venezuela;
  • The continued irrelevancy of the EU (except as an obstructive body)
  • Saudi Arabia on the ropes

Midland, TX Is Now The Richest Metropolitan Area In The US Based On Per Capita Income -- US Census Bureau Data -- December 3, 2019

Note: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

At the link at the right, two links that every reader should check out occasionally:
The third magazine, The Bakken Magazine, does not download; it may no longer exist. But I digress.

From The Oilman Magazine link below:

From the current issue of The Oilman Magazine, dated December 3, 2019, "Midland, TX, is now the richest metropolitan area in the US." The date of the article is obviously wrong (a "cut and paste" error, probably) because the link takes one to a 2019 story tracking US income data from 2016 to 2018. The link to that story: https://oilmanmagazine.com/midland-tx-is-now-the-richest-metropolitan-area-in-the-u-s/.
According the data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Midland, TX ended the Bridgeport, CT metro area’s reign as the area with the highest per capita income. Take that yankees!

The two counties that make up the Midland metro area had a per capita income of $83,049 compared to the second-place $81,068 for the Bridgeport metro area that includes Norwalk, Stamford, Greenwich and Danbury.

San Francisco, San Jose and Washington, D.C., rounded out the top five metropolitan areas.

The change at the top is the story of two counties, figures show. Midland is heavily dependent on mining, which includes oil and gas, economist David Lenze said. Fairfield County, meanwhile, has an economy centered on the financial services industry.

While there was an $800 million increase in one of the two counties that make up Midland’s statistical area, there was a nearly-corresponding $798 million drop in the financial services industry in Fairfield County, said Lenze, who works at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The source for income data: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/lapi/lapi_newsrelease.htm.

At that link click on "Metropolitan Area Table," and a pdf will download: Table 2. Per Capital Personal Income by Metropolitan Area, 2016 - 2018. There are 392 metropolitan areas ranked. Ranking, metropolitan area, and 2018 per capita personal income:
1. Midland, TX: $122,247
2: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT: #120,630
3. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: $106,213
4. San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA: $99,424
5. Naples-Marco Island, FL: $92,686
6. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: $78,694
7. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA: $76,681 (will drop significantly in 2020 after President Trump moves out)
8. Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL: $76,059
9. Napa, CA: $74,984
10: Burnstable, MA: $74,756
Most remarkable about the top ten: look at the delta between the top two and the rest. Then consider this: there is not state income tax for the metropolitan area that is ranked #1. Multiply that $1 per capita income by 1.09 and Midland goes to $133,249.

Then, go one step further. As expensive as it has gotten to live in Midland, it still pales in comparison to the cost of living in those cities ranked #2 to #7. Using a 20% fudge factor (which is very, very conservative), Midland easily goes to $160,000 per annum.

Other metropolitan areas of interest:
24. Minneapolis,St Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: $62,889
56: Bismarck, ND: $56,564
87: Fargo, ND-MN: $ 52,712
95: Billings, MT: $52,019

The New Jerusalem -- Sweden; The Second Messiah -- St Greta -- December 3, 2019

The 1000-piece puzzle is complete. The last crazy, little piece has been found, placed in the remaining spot, and the global warming puzzle is complete. I can go back to sleep.

A while back I posted this note, how the global warming myth and "the flood myth" come together. It explains why global warming is so easily accepted by the gullible, the superstitious, the misinformed.
The "flood myth" has been around since "Genesis" (the Bible); every culture, every generation has feared the "flood"; now in the 21st century, we have "rising seas" and more flooding
In the King James Bible, we had the Old Testament and the flood; in the New Testament we had the Messiah. It was the Gospel

Up until now, with regard to the Bible of Global Warming, we've had the old testament, but not the "Good News." The Gospel. The "good news." In a secular setting, the gospel  is an idea or rule that's accepted as undoubtedly true. The science is settled.

We now have the Good News. That missing piece has been found.

It's St Greta. She's a bit late -- about nineteen years to be exact. The Messiah was to have returned at the turn of the millennium -- but nineteen years ain't bad when we talking 2,000 years. And to think her twelve disciples are already in place, to include Occasional Cortex, Neil deGrasse Tyson, and Bill Nye, the "Science Guy."

I cannot make this stuff up.

The New Jerusalem is Stockholm, as in Sweden.

From Paul Joseph Watson, Summit News:
Greta Thunberg is being taught to Swedish children as part of a course about “religious knowledge,” with kids being asked to mock her opponents.

The 16-year-old climate activist is now included in the school curriculum and is being portrayed in an overtly sympathetic light, with the course describing her as an “alarm clock” that “allows us to discuss, talk, and reflect on what is happening to our world.”

According to one student, “Greta is practically painted as a saint.”

“In one task, they are asked to find a picture to illustrate the sentence “One simply doesn’t mess with Greta,” a nod to an outdated Boromir meme from “Lord of the Rings.”

Including Greta in lessons is “important to constantly offer materials and teaching materials that reflect the contemporary.”
The messiah:
Churches in Sweden are now ringing bells in her honor, while last year the Church of Sweden proclaimed Greta to be “Jesus’s Successor.”
As noted, I cannot make this stuff up. 

And Here's The Problem With Tethered Vehicles -- December 3, 2019

Yesterday I posted this:
Original Post

EVs. After our cross-Texas trip over Thanksgiving I was again struggling to see how EVs were going to become "a thing." It's just not gonna happen. At least not in the US.
  • forty percent of the US population live in apartment complexes; charging units are expensive
  • homeowners need to install EV chargers; new homes will have them installed
  • the grid will be hard pressed to handle any surge in new EVs
  • convenience
    • ICEs: average time of stop to refill -- five minutes
    • to charge: 30 minutes, which also means that when one pulls in to charge, one will wait behind a queue of cars charging and waiting to charge
    • EVs have maps to show where charging station is, but convenience of service stations is not to be underestimated
It didn't take long. The day after posting the above, this article, photo, and video pop up. Here's a great example of what I'm talking about -- waiting to charge one's Tesla.

From: https://www.infowars.com/video-tesla-drivers-wait-up-to-an-hour-to-charge-electric-vehicles/.

From the article at the link. 
Tesla owners in California waited in long lines to charge their electric vehicles over the holiday weekend.

Footage out of Kettleman City, the location of one of the largest supercharging sites boasting up to 40 chargers, shows drivers queued up back-to-back in a line about a half mile long.

Testy drivers attempting to juice up after Black Friday sounded off on social media, claiming the wait time was anywhere from thirty minutes to well over an hour.

Another Tesla owner claimed he ran into long lines at a charging station in Buellton.
One reader had a solution:
Load a large diesel generator on a trailer and charge these idiots big bucks to charge their cars in line. 
A better solution: Teslas -- especially the new pickups -- could tow their own diesel generator on a small U-Haul trailer. 

Perhaps They Could Have Used Different Graphs? -- December 3, 2019

Am I missing something here?  From The WSJ.

Here is the narrative:
U.S. teenagers made no significant gains on an exam taken by students around the world, and continue to trail students in Asian countries. The exam, called the Program for International Student Assessment, or PISA.
The scores are flat. We’re struggling in math in comparison to our peers around the world,” said Peggy G. Carr, the associate commissioner of assessments for the National Center for Education Statistics. “We’re sliding with regard to our most struggling readers.”
Here are the graphs:

Only One Well Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5665533963

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, December 3, 2019: 12 for the month; 217 for the quarter:
  • 31653, 945, Oasis, McFarland Federal 5501 11-18 8BX, Missouri Ridge; has produced in excess of 100,000 bbls in first four months of production, 40 stages; 6.0 million lbs, sand/ceramic; t6/19; cum 104K 10/19;

RBN Energy: Is the market ready for 100-Bcf/d US natural gas production?
The once unthinkable level of 100 Bcf/d for U.S. natural gas production is just around the corner, it would seem.
Lower-48 gas production last week hit a new high of 96.4 Bcf/d, after surpassing 95 Bcf/d not too long ago (in late October). That’s remarkable considering that production was only 52 Bcf/d just 12 years ago.
Gas demand from domestic consumption and exports this year has set plenty of records of its own, but the incremental demand has not been nearly enough to keep the storage inventory from building a significant surplus compared with last year. CME/NYMEX Henry Hub prompt gas futures prices tumbled nearly 40 cents last week to $2.28/MMBtu, the lowest November-traded settle since 2015. Today, we break down the supply-demand fundamentals behind this year’s bearish storage and price reality.