Wednesday, December 4, 2024

An Incredible Grayson Mill (Devon) Reidle Well In Briar Creek; 110 Stimulation Stages; 3-Mile Lateral -- December 4, 2024

Locator: 44495B.

Briar Creek is along the Montana state line, southwest of Williston, near Trenton; I could be wrong, but it appears the Briar Creek oil field is slightly smaller than 640 acres.   

There are four wells on this Reidle pad:

  • 39232, Reidle 6-3F 4H, t6/23; cum 341K 10/24;
  • 39231, Reidle 6-3F 3H, t6/23; cum 330K 10/24;
  • 39230, Reidle 6-3F 2H, t6/23; cum 298K 10/24;
  •  39229, see below.

The well:

  • 39229, conf/F/323, Grayson Mill (Devon), Reidle 6-3F 1H, Briar Creek, sited in section 6, the horizontal goes east and ends in section 3, neart the east section line; t6/23; cum 341K 10/24; total depth: 27,759 (3-mile lateral); 110 stages; 23 million lbs proppant; 21 million gallons fluid; full production profile.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2024301161211684317301192226859190
BAKKEN9-20243011557113583861812627209410515
BAKKEN8-2024311121711495462401092582672646
BAKKEN7-202431106361055460840967180511525
BAKKEN6-202414536252352804959125031842
BAKKEN5-20242716619166532442419872178811914
BAKKEN4-20243019894201353294328695245164025
BAKKEN3-20243124376241793669631930253896259
BAKKEN2-20242921197211573753126799234493126
BAKKEN1-20242919658196324330427756242073289
BAKKEN12-2023312407124066526032171120961602
BAKKEN11-20232922704227485327319961110458754
BAKKEN10-20233125309252866050121619164025047
BAKKEN9-2023302606026013621141937818760465
BAKKEN8-20233025372254936705926919185348238
BAKKEN7-20232932505328559543921346186972519
BAKKEN6-20232633333326956541426824176258870
BAKKEN5-20232006868420798

Time For A Musical Interlude -- December 4, 2024

 Locator: 44494MUSIC.

Link here.

This is so cool. While listening to Cake / "I want a girl" I thought I heard something familiar.

Wow.

Link here.

Lou Reed / The Velvet Underground / "Sweet Jane." 

Or Michael Nesmith, Cruisin' (Sunset Sam): link here.

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Sixth Industrial Revolution

Link here. For those paying attention, this is simply incredible.

 ***********************************
The Sixth Industrial Revolution

See wiki, as currently understood and generally accepted:

  • first industrial revolution: 1760 - 1840; ended in the middle of the 19th century; inventions; advancements in textiles; age of inventions;
  • second industrial revolution: advancements in manufacturing processes; 1870 - 1914 (beginning of WWI); age of mass manufacturing;
  • third industrial revolution: beginning in 1947, information age; computer coming out of WWII; Colossus, Bletchley Park;
  • fourth industrial revolution: rapid technological advancement beginning in the late 1990s; the Age of Apple (or the personal computer).

Much better:

  • first industrial revolution: ended in the middle of the 19th century; age of invention;
  • second industrial revolution: 1870 - 1914 (beginning of WWI); age of Henry Ford, mass manufacturing;
  • third industrial revolution: peri-WWI -- the age of conventional manufacturing and logistics; rise of synthetics and the oil and gas industry; age of Standard Oil (or the age of John D Rockefeller);
  • fourth industrial revolution: beginning in 1947, information age; the computer age (or the age of Turing);
  • fifth industrial revolution: rapid technological advancement beginning in the late 1990s -- maybe it began in 1984 with the (in)famous Apple commercial; age of Apple (or the age of Steve Jobs)

The question is whether "we" have entered the sixth industrial revolution: Nvidia blades; LDCs; a return to nuclear energy to meet energy needs of the information age. If so:

  •  sixth industrial revolution: artificial intelligence enters its stride; the "Nvidia revolution."

It's hard for me to accept that the need for nuclear energy to meet the needs of LDCs does not signify a new industrial revolution.

Note: "the Nvidia revolution" is a metonym for the artificial intelligence advancements that began in the early 2020s.  

For an investor, the big question is whether to invest in LNG (Cheniere) or SRE?

See disclaimer.

***************************
Take A Walk On The Wild Side

One wonders how many Supremes remember this song.

Link here.

An NPR essay following Lou Reed's death back in October, 2013. I remember that evening very, very well. I heard "the" NPR essay on/about that evening driving cross country from North Dakota back to Texas. I was just driving out of Oklahoma City when I heard the essay on the radio. 

An aside: amazing. I actually recorded this note in my journal. I was home in Williston to visit my dad. He died in 2018. 

*************************
Memories 

"Piano Man" / Billy Joel.

Which leads me to Harry Chapin / "Taxi." Link here.

And then I'm into a YouTube loop. 

And lots of memories. Boston. 1970s/1980s.

***************************
Investing

GM should be of some concern.  

A huge day on Wall Street today: Dow breaks through 45,000 for the first time ever. Art Cashin, who famously wore a "Dow 24,000" cap back in 2017, and perhaps one of the finest men on Wall Street, died two days ago. He might have something to say about this/that.

GM was down during regular hours and continued to go down after the market closed. 

The thing that would concern me if I were a GM investor, and I'm not, is the abruptness with which the company ended its relationship / stake in the huge Lansing EV battery factory. GM has/had sunk about $1 billion into the venture, but said it expected to recoup its investment. I assume that was said to "appease" GM's more gullible shareholders. It's chump change.

$1 billion. Sounds like a lot of money. Chump change to the tech CEOs and their companies.  Musk is worth $333.6 billion. That's with a "b." If a company like GM is concerned about $1 billion, there's more to the story. There's a short-term story and a long-term story. 

The last five days have been miserable for GM. And longer term? One could have bought GM for $63.37 / share back on June 4, 2021. Today, GM closed at $53.36. Ouch. 

Ford? Back on June 14, 2022, F was trading for $25.19. Today, F closed at $10.74.

See disclaimer. Just some rambling thoughts. Not making a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Magazine Subscriptions -- December 4, 2024

 Locator: 44493ARCHIVES.

I will be letting my subscriptions to The New York Review of Books, The New Yorker, and The Atlantic lapse. I won't be renewing my subscriptions. It gets tedious reading about "how bad" Trump is and "how bad" his second administration is going to be. I enjoy good writing and I really, really enjoy the non-political articles in these various publications but they magazine have pretty much all become the same thing. Anti-Trump. 

Political talk shows: wow, I really enjoyed watching the talk shows right after the election but now they've become tedious. I'm done. Wow, they're tedious ... and depressing.

Great screenshot from today:


Interestingly enough, BRK-A / BRK-B is not in the screenshot above. 

Biden is still in Africa. I had absolutely forgotten that until watching Jesse Watters. His doctor-wife did not go with him. Wow, his party really, really dislikes the guy. Being reported everywhere, not just by Jesse Watters. Kamala is missing in action. Who's running the country.

The Sixth Industrial Revolution -- The AI Revolution -- Meta Announces A $10-Billion LDC In Louisiana -- It Will Be Meta's Largest Data Center Ever In Louisiana -- December 4, 2024

 Locator: 44492IR.

Tag: Meta NE-ISO ISO-NE Do-Re-Mi

From Dan Tsubouchi:


Original Post

Link here

The LDC:

  • location: near Monroe, LA, in Richland Parish' Holly Ridge (link here
  • first of its kind for the state (link here)
  • $10 billion
  • 4 million square feet
    • to wrap your head around that, 4 million square feet is 40 times -- repeat, 40 times -- the Walmart "store" in your neighborhood (or your town)
  • will be powered by three new natural gas plants with 2.2 gigawatts of combined capacity
    • Meta to partner with Entergy to provide this power
    • the entire ISO-NE has a combined capacity of 35 GW
    • enough energy to power one million homes
    • will also provide power to the surrounding community

Now for the hyperbole:

  • “Entergy raised its earnings growth outlook substantially (solely because of this 1 new customer) and the stock rose 15% on that day,” wrote Rodney Rebello, an analyst covering power stocks at Reaves Asset Management, in an email to Barron’s. “It’s a monumental deal for the sector.”
  • Meta says the Louisiana data center will be significantly larger than Meta's other data center campuses.

Size of data centers:


ISO-NE:

Dow Hits 45,000 For First Time Ever -- December 4, 2024

 Locator: 44491B.

DOW 45000

Link here.

Simply insane, at the close:

LNG: google "sre total return last five years" vs "lng total return last five year." Answer: 68%; 270%.

Car sales, link here.

 ******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.68. Significant decline from the morning's opening. Possibly related to headline that Trump's policies will drop WTI to well below $60. One wonders what that would do to the price of LNG / natural gas.

Active rigs: 35.

Four new permits, #41392 - #41395, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill (3); CLR
  • Fields: Cow Creek (Williams); Alkali Creek (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Vachal FIU well, NENE 27-154-94, 
      • to be sited 215 FNL and 494 FEL;
    • Grayson Mill (Devon) has permits for three Tufto wells, NENW 18-155-100, 
      • to be sited 386 FNL and at the following distances FWL: 1901, 1931, and 1991.

One permit canceled:

  • 41273, Slawson, Atlas 3-21-16H, McKenzie County.

France In Chaos -- Economic Debacle -- Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Locator: 44490FRANCE.

Link here to The Telegraph


Lots Of Drilling Activity In The Arnegard Area -- Lots Of Work Left To Be Done In The Bakken December 4, 2024

Locator: 44489B.

The map:


Midday -- Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Locator: 44488CCS.

New SEC chairman: Paul Atkins, announced today by President-elect Trump. Crypto advocate. 

ISO-NE: midday, electricity running $180. Link here.

****************************
CCS

From oilprice today:

Saudi state oil giant Aramco is teaming up with the world’s largest oilfield services provider, SLB, and the world’s largest industrial gases company, Linde, to build a carbon capture and storage (CCS) hub in Saudi Arabia, which will be one of the largest such sites in the world.

************************
Apple

Synching passwords: link here.


From the linked article:

If you keep your passwords stored on Apple’s iCloud, you can access those passwords on Firefox through an official iCloud Passwords extension, as spotted by MacRumors.
However, the extension only supports macOS Sonoma or later, so you won’t be able to use it with Windows.
If you do need to access your iCloud passwords on Windows, you can access them by downloading iCloud for Windows and the iCloud Passwords extension for Chrome or Edge instead.
We’ve asked Apple if it plans to add support for Windows to its Firefox extension.
Another developer originally made the Firefox extension, but Apple has taken it over, according to a notice on the extension’s GitHub page.
Apple is “now the sole owners in charge of maintaining their own official iCloud Passwords extension,” the developer says. The extension’s repository and source code aren’t linked to it anymore except for “historical reasons.”

Meanwhile:

BRK, link here. IBD says BRK is doing great. For the last couple of days:

Cyber Monday -- Shattered Sales Records -- Expectations Exceeded -- December 4, 2024

Locator: 44487RETAIL.

 
Expectations exceeded:

AAPL, BRK-B -- December 4, 2024

Locator: 44486INV.

Apple's (AAPL's) Eleven:

BRK-B: in free fall. Do the movers and makers know something that is not being reported? Biggest drag on my portfolio -- except perhaps energy, right now. But energy I understand; no news being reported regard the significant fall in BRK-B when the market in general is surging.


**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- December 4, 2024

Locator: 44485CRAMER. 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Breaking: CEO, UnitedHealthCare, a division of UNH, assassinated in NYC just ahead of the UNH's investor day. Breaking. No official statement yet. Assassin fled on foot. NYC. Source. Everything needs to be fact-checked. Later, from NYTimes:

Apple's (AAPL's) Eleven:

Microsoft, link here:

S&P 500, NASDAQ hit record highs at the open.

Broadcom (AVGO): up $5.35 / up over 3% in pre-market trading. Whoo-hoo!

Personal investing: Sophia has her picks for the day. She says she is way too overweighted in tech and her individual favorites are too expensive. So, she says she is going to get more conservative today. Not sure if it's the right course. Will add to positions in some of the following: UNP, WMT, SCHB, SCHD, SCHG. So, we'll see.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Wednesday -- December 4, 2024

Locator: 44497B.

Breaking: CEO, UnitedHealthCare, a division of UNH, assassinated in NYC just ahead of the UNH's investor day. Breaking. No official statement yet. Assassin fled on foot. NYC. Source. Everything needs to be fact-checked. Later, from NYTimes:

GDP Now, link here:

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.29.

Thursday, December 5, 2024: 9 for the month; 113 for the quarter, 644 for the year

  • None.
Wednesday, December 4, 2024: 9 for the month; 113 for the quarter, 644 for the year
  • 40759, conf, Slawson Exploration, Fish Finder 5-21-9H,
  • 39747, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-92-2413H-2
  • 39590, conf, Grayson Mill, Niles 19-22F 4H,
  • 39589, conf, Grayson Mill, Niles 19-22F 3H,
  • 39588, conf, Grayson Mill, Niles 19-22F 2H,
  • 33973, conf, Enerplus, Titanium 147-93-16A-21H,

RBN Energy: falling oil prices erode E&P profits, dampen outlook for production boost.

Boosting America’s hydrocarbon output was a major plank in the 2024 Republican platform, and Donald Trump’s recent victory has stimulated a lot of optimism about the U.S. upstream sector. The nomination of Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright as Energy Secretary confirmed that “drill, baby, drill” will be a mantra in the new administration. However, over the past few years, U.S. producers have dramatically shifted their focus from growth at any cost to strict financial discipline focused on maximizing free cash flows and shareholder returns. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the Q3 2024 results of the major U.S. E&Ps we follow and look for early clues about how their senior executives might react to the renewed federal enthusiasm to rapidly accelerate drilling.