Tuesday, October 12, 2021

CLR's Bang Wells In Cedar Coulee

Updates

November 30, 2021: apparently already being drilled; completed?

November 23, 2021: five new permits --

  • 38673, conf, CLR, Bang 8-4H, Cedar Coulee, SWSW 4-146-96, 340 FSL 925 FWL;
  • 38674, conf, CLR, Bang 7-4H1, Cedar Coulee, SWSW 4-146-96, 340 FSL 880 FWL;
  • 38675, conf, CLR, Bang 6-4H, Cedar Coulee, SWSW 4-146-96, 340 FSL 835 FWL;
  • 38676, conf, CLR, Bang 5-4H1, Cedar Coulee, SWSW 4-146-96, 340 FSL 790 FWL;
  • 38677, conf, CLR, Bang 4-4H, Cedar Coulee, SWSW 4-146-96, 340 FSL 745 FWL; 

November 23, 2021: graphic updated with permits above placed on map --

Original Post

For more on the CLR Bang wells in Cedar Coulee, see this post for additional graphics.

That information will be moved here and this is where I will follow the CLR Bang wells. 

From December 14, 2020, linked above:


One new permit but it was a SWD permit, #38023. 

It's a CLR permit for a SWD well in Cedar Coulee. Oil operators don't drill SWD wells just for practice, or the fun of it. Means something. I track Cedar Coulee here but not much has been posted there. The SWD permit:
38023, conf, CLR, Kelly Draw SWD, SENW 32-147-96; Cedar Coulee.

Existing wells:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 164K 10/20; cum 168K 6/21; off line 7/21; remains off line 8/21;
  • 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, t5/10; cum 208K 10/20; cum 214K 6/21; off line 7/21; six days in 8/21; may be coming back on line
  • 37941, conf, CLR, Bang 3033H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,  NENE 32-147-96; 597 FNL 1050 FEL;
Five new permits, #38606 - #38610, inclusive, October 11, 2021:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Cedar Coulee (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for five wells in SESE 4-146-96, Cedar Coulee
    • four of the wells will be sited 551 FSL and between 562 FEL and 652 FEL; one well will be sited 550 FSL and 427 FEL (assuming there was no typographical error)

Scout tickets do not yet exist for these permits:

  • 38606, loc, CLR, Bang 9-4H1, Cedar Coulee,
  • 38607, loc, CLR, Bang 10-4H, Cedar Coulee,
  • 38608, loc, CLR, Bang 11-4H1, Cedar Coulee,
  • 38609, loc, CLR, Bang 12-4H, Cedar Coulee,
  • 38610, loc, CLR, Bang FIU 14-4HSL, Cedar Coulee,
  • 38614, loc, CLR, Bang FIU 13-4H1, Cedar Coulee, 551 FSL and 472 FEL, SESE 4-146-96;

Graphic:

Flashback: Alberta Oil Sands -- There's A Reason Western Europe, Et Al, Pushed The Global Warming Story -- October 12, 2021

Now that I understand "oil" a bit better, after a decade of blogging, these earlier posts make more sense.

There's a reason western Europe, et al, pushed the global warming story. The energy gap between North America and Europe was incredibly wide. Economically, Europe would have been devastated. 

Look at this, posted back in the very early days of the blog:

Alberta Oil Sands

Alberta's oil sands hold 1.8 trillion barrels of bitumen, but only about 9% is recoverable using existing technologies. April 19, 2013. [That makes it easy: about twice the reserves of the Bakken, and about twice the rate of recovery.]

Industry fact sheet on Canadian oil sands

See also Kearl Oil Sands.  

From March 18, 2014: RBN Energy: an incredible story.

Western Canada’s vast bitumen sands are estimated to contain reserves of 575 billion bbls of recoverable crude oil. The largely untapped bitumen carbonate formations lying beneath the oil sands could contain another 243 billion Bbl of recoverable reserves. When added to untapped tight oil shale reserves these huge hydrocarbon deposits potentially could make the Province of Alberta the world’s largest crude oil resource. Today contributor Mike Priaro concludes his description of Alberta’s crude oil reserves.

Covid -- Michigan -- Out Of Control -- Some Of You Heard It Here First -- October 12, 2021

Link here.

Most of the country is now coming out of the latest surge.

One exception: Michigan. Their most recent surge is just starting and it appears it will be much worse than the two previous surges.

Link here.

Professional football, college football being played in Michigan? Asking for a friend.

Compare with Israel, previously posted.

Population:

  • Israel: 9.2 million
  • Michigan: 9.9 million

Population density:

  • Israel: 150
  • Michigan: 175

Israel: link here -- note: the Israelis have not -- nor has anyone -- immunized the reservoir.

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The Wave

Fargo, ND-Based Agricultural Digital Trading Firm Buys Similar Platform From Cargill / ADM -- October 12, 2021

A reader spotted this story; thank you.

GrainBridge is a digital trading platform to give farmers secure access to ADM and Cargill transactions and allow them to execute grain deals on their own schedule.

In other words, "Schwab For Farmers." 

Meanwhile, there was a Bushel, a Fargo, ND-based firm that does the same thing. Bushel claims to be the largest digital network for US grain growers and buyers.

In other words, "Ameritrade For Farmers." 

Well, get this. 

Cargill / ADM just sold their GrainBridge division to Bushel. 

Wow. 

Bushel is counting on the deal to cement its claim that it is the largest digital network in this niche market. 

GrainBridge employees will remain based in Omaha, Nebraska. 

Note: I often misunderstand stories like this. I think I have this correct. But if this is important to you, go to the source.

A Closer Look At The Two DUCs Reported By MRO Today -- October 12, 2021

The two MRO producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed today: 

  • 37745, 3,340, MRO, Dancing Bull USA 32-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 129K after four months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2021171569015604208481361912167199
BAKKEN7-2021313055530647434992572323149446
BAKKEN6-2021303029330161453622308520846184
BAKKEN5-2021292828928463399722283020722272
BAKKEN4-20211724581242263871719453166521070
  •  37746, 4,920, MRO, Pauline USA 32-14H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 178K after four months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202118155811553890291267311322185
BAKKEN7-2021313626836408223572730524572474
BAKKEN6-2021303884338791247872739924741219
BAKKEN5-2021305474254857401754316939183514
BAKKEN4-20211632252317872271019735168931086

Experts tell "us" that daughter wells always do worse than parent wells. See the parent wells below. 

Two adjacent pads: eight wells on one pad, four wells on the older pad.

Two older parent wells in the same drilling unit:

  • 20642, 1,137, MRO, Good Bear USA 21-14H, Moccasin Creek, t10/11; cum 413K 8/21; off line, 2/21 - 4/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202124140113884711403125420
BAKKEN7-202131189418996571853166832
BAKKEN6-202130183718306311673151113
BAKKEN5-2021311831182110321714155620
BAKKEN4-2021417143155104896
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20211270281461360
BAKKEN1-202131140515983921720930201
BAKKEN12-202031142514043411557102081
BAKKEN11-202030137011294781519227848
BAKKEN10-202031146614844551205610265
BAKKEN9-20203015671528365949245378
BAKKEN8-202031173219614801422836225
  • 20644, 1,221, MRO, Good Bear USA 31-14H, Moccasin Creek, t12/11; cum 255K 8/21; off line, 2/21 - 4/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2021318428324626505819
BAKKEN7-2021318658684695064559
BAKKEN6-2021308708704394634184
BAKKEN5-202131145414467467857139
BAKKEN4-20213492148323201
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-202121604073680
BAKKEN1-2021318961006422868469102
BAKKEN12-20203186884947496750240
BAKKEN11-202030813668437981120450
BAKKEN10-202031854851537793342149
BAKKEN9-202030804780541613125193
BAKKEN8-20203083796242274636999

Coal Is Back! Three DUCs Reported As Completed; Two New Permits -- October 12, 2021

Early ski season? Deadwood, SD, looking at upwards of 24 inches of snow. Link here.

Coal is dead! Long live coal: The UK has now called up its fossil fuel fleet of power stations to keep the lights on, including coal-fired plants and even gas peakers (open cycle). Wind is struggling. Link here

Coal is dead! Long live coal! Spot prices for electricity have tripled. The shortage of coal, which makes up around 70% of India's electricity mix, is forcing generator and some industrial users to buy electricity at the power exchange spot prices. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, oil and gaa:

$80.64
10/12/202110/12/202010/12/201910/12/201810/12/2017
Active Rigs29
13586759

Two new permits, #38611 - #38612, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill Operating
  • Field: Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill (Equinor assets) has permits for two Jay wells in NENE 25-153-98, 
    • to be sited 330 FNL and 588 FEL and 330' FNL and 616 FEL

Three permits renewed:

  • Crescent Point Energy: two Austin permits and one Narcisse permit, all in Williams County;

Six permits canceled:

  • QEP: five Moberg permits in McKenzie County, and one MHA permit in Mountrial County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37745, 3,340, MRO, Dancing Bull USA 32-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 129K after four months;
  • 37746, 4,920, MRO, Pauline USA 32-14H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 178K after four months;
  • 37033, 801, Whiting, KR State 13-16-2HU, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 6K after 16 days;

Coal

Background

Electricity mix: ourworldindata.org.

 Updates (infrequent)

September, 2021: coal stocks at key global hubs fall by half in 1H21. Link at ArgusMedia. The numbers are daunting:

  • expressed as the number of days of local consumption or throughput: 40 days in June
  • is a 47% reduction y/y and last year was the year of the plague
  • this number now nears the bottom of the 2017 - 2019 range
  • the data reflects a tighter supply-demand balance in 2021 which has been a key factor in driving seaborne prices higher
  • remains a risk ahead of the northern hemisphere heating session
  • supply decline driven by two factors:
  • inclement weather early in 2021, reduced railing and discharging capacity; mining disruption from safety checks, strikes, and protests
  • the compounding impact from rising coal burn in some markets, particularly China and India, driven by firm power demand, and gas-to-coal switching in the Atlantic because of surging gas prices
  • much more at the link but despite decline in China, the article mentions nothing about the spat between China and Australia

 

Another Southwest Airlines Weather Alert -- October 12, 2021

An alert reader notes another weather alert involving Southwest Airlines. Due to "multiple slide-offs" this landing strip has been closed for two hours. Link here

In addition, it looks like the airline won't be flying into the Bakken any time soon. Winter is here.

On a serious note: I do not recall significant freezing or snowfall prior to Halloween when I was growing up in Williston, ND.

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Covid Vaccine Rollout

Prior to the three day "Columbus Day weekend," the number of vaccinations were trending toward one million vaccinations daily. Then, horrendous numbers over the three-day weekend, extending into Tuesday.

Average daily number of vaccinations given over the previous seven days:

  • Monday, October 11, 2021: 867,343
  • Monday, October 4, 2021: 893,520
  • Monday, September 27, 2021: 632,435

It was about the time "we" were trending towards 600,000 vaccinations / day that the administration threatened mandates.

  • Monday, September 20, 2021: 772,308
  • Monday, September 13, 2021: 772,190

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 12, 2021

Fischer Investments: after a year or so of Ken Fisher being absent from commercials for his company, I see that he has returned. For the first time in a long time, I see him in a new Fisher Investment commercial today. 

Apple, Inc: has just announced its second fall event -- Monday, October 18, 2021. This confounds the "experts." LOL. Because we are already well into the month of October, experts thought the date would be much later in October, and then this: Apple's events are "always" on Tuesday. This one is on a Monday.

Southwest Airlines: Jim Cramer does not buy the story. Nor do I. My hunch: Jim Cramer knows Phil LaBeau is a tool for the airlines (and the auto manufacturers). The new meme: Southwest Airlines' business model doesn't work. All of a sudden, the model doesn't work after all these years? LOL. David Farber, CNBC, refuses to discuss it; doesn't want to touch it with a ten-foot pole.

Permian: future wells will not be brought online by APACHE without adequate natural gas takeaway, going forward -- CEO. Link here. Pre-market: with price of oil continuing to go up, APA is down about a third of a percent in pre-market trading. EOG, also down (about 0.2%); Pioneer down bout 0.5%. Later in trading day: APA up 0.65%; EOG still down 0.27%; and PXD: down about 1.5%.

Covid origins: hopefully not blocked by a paywall. I was able to access full article. I ignored what I wanted to ignore -- I'm pretty bored with the origins of the virus -- but I enjoyed the photos. From The Washington Post

Israel: link here -- note: the Israelis have not -- nor has anyone -- immunized the reservoir.


Stagflation: A Reader Weighs In -- October 12, 2021

Definition: In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. Wikipedia.

Once fossil fuels reaches the breaking point.  A price point caused by the green new deal (carbon tax/methane tax), or whatever the Dems call the kickback to funnel money to wind and solar with much siphoned off to fund Dems election, think Solandra.

Limited NG to east coast.  Of course all fossil fuels are the fault.  But we know it is pipeline.

Average citizen will not be able to function with high costs for energy and all products because of transportation costs.  Business will pull the help wanted signs.

We are not looking at stagflation.  More like deep recession to depression.  Stocks will start to fall at that time. Bitcoin will be the last reserve.

---------------: was a huge landowner, blacksmith, developed a rust resistant wheat.  At one time sold enough to plant a million acres in ND, SD, MT, MN and Canada.

The depression just about took him out.  One report: lost a million dollars in stocks.  Only the land holdings carried him through.

Women are dropping out of the workforce or not choosing to re-enter.

Printing money only lasts so long.  Germany didn't have enough wheelbarrows.

Not ready for prime time.

Questions: how many are available to work and choose not too.  To this point automation has delayed much free spending the last forty years.  I don't know when but the chicken will come home to roost.  No free lunch.

The reader mentions recession / depression. I'm thinking regional recessions. 

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- The Culver City Edition -- October 12, 2021

Southwest Airlines, weather:


The Permian: shale oil is booming again. Link to Yahoo!Finance. But looks who drilling.

Enbridge: this is the third time I've posted / linked this story. It's that big a deal. Zacks article here.

Southwest Airlines: apparently the weather is still  impacting Southwest Airlines.

Apple, Inc: previously posted, another huge story that needs repeating: Apple is building a massive new campus straddling Los Angeles and Culver City. Archived. In addition to everything else, this will re-vitalize that area of west LA; this is huge:

  • will be located along National, Venice, and Washington boulevards
  • two huge facilities; connected by a "shared wall"
  • in the big scheme of things, this is prime real estate in an incredible part of the city
  • about ten miles up Venice Boulevard from the ocean, Venice Beach
  • this will really, really re-invigorate this area
  • the addresses of the new buildings are 8825 National Blvd. and 8871 Washington Blvd. in Culver City, and 8827 and 8829 National Blvd. and 8876, 8884, 8886 and 8888 Venice Blvd. in the City of Los Angeles.

Apple, Inc: close to another milestone -- will join Saudi Aramco with $100 billion in profits, annually. Link here. In another five years, three other companies could join the club: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft.

T: I've long lost interest in ATT as an investment, and it's only going to get worse, but a two-second soundbite regarding ATT, the telcos, and streaming reaffirmed my excitement for copper.

The Fed: may taper but it's not going to start raising rates any time soon. Analyst. Link here

$80-WTI: won't destroy demand or hurt the economy. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

Huge: Netflix partners with Walmart.

Target, posted September 23, 2021:

  • Target announces it will not hire additional seasonal workers for the holidays.Obviously our local Target store did not get the memo. The store has big signs at the entrance advertising seasonal hiring at high hourly rates.

Sports: I've never cared for Jon Gruden but I never would have wanted to see this. Resigns as Raiders coach after more leaked e-mails from 2011 reveal homophobic, misogynistic language. Link here. This is ten years ago, but didn't folks know by then that e-mails never disappear?

New vaccines, medicines to prevent / treat Covid: Merck and AstraZeneca.

Nvidia.

Chariots on fire: LG to pay upwards of $2 billion to GM over Bolt EV battery fires. Link here. In pre-market trading, GM is up 1%.

WTI Starts The Day At $81.10; One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- October 12, 2021

US: economy can easily handle $130 - $150 WTI. That's why folks are not screaming about $80-WTI. And Resident Biden knows that. 

Europe: energy crisis -- another major manufacturer will stop production November - December, 2021. Link here. Spanish steel maker Sidenor.

India: could soon be on the brink of a power crisis. Coal. CNBC.

NE USA: price of heating oil could surge this winter. Link here. Remember: lack of natural gas pipelines.

ISO NE: link here. Seems to spike every weekday morning from 5:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m., then drops back again before spiking again, albeit a bit lower, starting about 7:00 a.m.

US gasoline exports: new seasonal highs in May, June, and July. Link here. Resident Biden's team says they will take all necessary steps to tackle high price of gasoline. Well, this seems like a good place to start. LOL. Of course, the refiners will simply scale back operations. 

High price of gasoline: even the political class in Washington, DC, can't miss it now. Link here.

High price of gasoline: only eight states now average less than $3 / gallon -- OK, MS, TX, AR, LA, KS, AL, MO. Average price across the US: $3.25. The really cool thing about high-priced gasoline: all that cashback on credit cards. LOL.

Saudi Arabia:

  • pumping about 9.6 million boepd
  • says they have capacity for 11.5 million boepd
  • targets new CAPEX to increase capacity to 13 million boepd

California: apparently it passed -- California bans gas lawn mowers and leaf blowers. Link here. One needs to read the law closely but the press is reporting that California bans the sale of these items, not the use. Amazon will have a field day. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, updated COB by NDIC:

$81.10
10/12/202110/12/202010/12/201910/12/201810/12/2017
Active Rigs29
13586759

One well coming off confidential list --

Tuesday, October 12, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 235 for the year:

  • 36916, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35TFHU, Robinson Lake, see this note;

RBN Energy: Did Putin pop the global natural gas bubble, or give Europe a last chance to stock up? 

For six months, European natural gas prices skyrocketed higher almost every day. The soaring prices made sense. Gas inventories in Europe were low following higher-than-normal demand last winter. Economies were recovering from COVID-19. Russia was curtailing gas deliveries. It all added up to a likely supply shortage during the winter of 2021-22. And the market did what markets do: anticipate. Even though the next winter season was months away, gas buyers went to work, stocking up on supplies like squirrels gathering nuts. The more prices increased, the more panic buying kicked in. By last Tuesday, October 5, the European TTF price was up more than 5X what it had been on May 1. Then, on Wednesday, a few comments from Vladimir Putin seemed to pop the bubble, and within a few days the Dutch TTF price was down 27%. Is everything OK now? Was the gas-price run-up all just speculative buying and short covering? Or is a supply crunch still on the horizon, and this is just the calm before the storm? In today’s RBN blog, we explore those questions.