Saturday, May 31, 2014

Random Note On The Southern-Most Active Rig In North Dakota Right Now: A Luff Exploration Red River Well

The southern-most active rig in North Dakota at the moment is on-site here:
  • 27946, conf, Luff Exploration, D and E Trust N-31H, Corey Butte, 31-129-101, right on the South Dakota state line; based on other Luff Exploration wells in the immediate area, this is most likely a Red River well.
Could this be a big well? Hard to say, but Luff Exploration has a long history working this area, and has some good Red River wells, including this one:
  • 5227, 624, Luff Exploration, Greni 33-26, a Red River well, t11/72; cum 1,235,497 bbs 4/14; this well has a pretty colorful history. I believe it began as a vertical well, was re-entered and two very short laterals were placed; a work-over rig in 2003 significantly increased production. Note that it was drilled in late 1972, and continues to produce about 1,600 bbls of oil per month, which is what some Bakken wells produce after the end of the severe decline rate and then begin to level off. Is that about 42 years of production? Note: over 1.2 million bbls of oil to date.
The new well is located about 8 miles, almost directly east, of the older well (#5227).

There is nothing below the asterisks that apply to the Bakken. For archive purposes only and to help put the Bakken into perspective.

Germany "green-energy jobs" collapse

This is interesting. I was sent a link last night to what appeared might be an interesting story. It wouldn't open in the Firefox browser, but opened in Safari, though sluggish, suggesting it was optimized for Microsoft IE, or perhaps Chrome. While waiting for it to load on Safari, I googled "Germany "green energy jobs" collapse." I was quite surprised. In the past week or so the European media has several stories on this subject, but which I had not yet seen in American mainstream media.

This article from Global Warming Policy Foundation was typical. I assume the Foundation has its own agenda, but the article is recent, contains data linked to reputable sources, and mirrors many other sites talking about the collapse of Germany's green energy industry. It is not surprising; regular readers are well aware of Merckel's return to coal in a big, big way. What is surprising is how quickly and how deeply the collapse is.

This article or one similar to it also noted the intense vitriol and acrimony. The tone coming from the "green energy" proponents suggest desperation. And, of course, they are desperate: the earth will become inhabitable in the next year or so due to greenhouse gases exceeding 401 ppm and no one is taking it seriously any more. Not even Ms Merckel. Returning to coal in a big, big way. All of Europe is returning to coal if one looks at the export (from the US) - import (into Europe) data.

Some data points from the linked article on green-energy jobs in Germany:
  • the subsidization of renewable energy has not led to a significant, sustainable increase in jobs in Germany
  • counting employees in government agencies and academic institutions, less than 1% of Germany's 42 million workers work in the highly subsidized sector of renewable energy
  • there was a 13% drop in the number of new people employed in renewable energy sector last year, most new jobs were in solar
  • the German government expects to see a further decline this year (2014) and next year
  • fifteen (15) years after the start of green energy subsidies, this sector is still dependent on subsidies
  • almost none of the green-energy jobs are self-supporting; they require subsidies to exist
  • subsidies continue to pile up, and Germany utility users now have a 20-billion Euro bill to pay in their monthly utility bills to pay for these subsidies
  • investments, meanwhile, in renewable energy have dropped 20%
Ezra Levant, Canada's self-proclaimed "foremost freedom fighter" has the same story. This is the link that was very, very slow to load and I could not get it to load on Firefox.

This January 22, 2014, NewScientist article suggests the same.

This is an example of the vitriol, desperation, anger, hostility coming from some quarters that I referenced above from this Canada Free Press article:
Lord Deben said people like Lord Lawson of Blaby, the former chancellor, should not be classed as ‘climate change deniers’ but should instead be referred to as “dismissers.” He said these people do not say climate change is not happening but deny the urgency to take action. Lord Lawson of Blaby has warned that climate sceptics are treated with same vitriol as Holocaust deniers. He also accused the Prince of Wales and the Climate Change Secretary Ed Davey of being hostile. Lord Lawson, who founded the Global Warming Policy Foundation think-tank, said he had never experienced such vilification either in his private or political life.
Claire Carter, The Daily Telegraph, 28 May 2014
So, I guess it's back to "shut up and color. The science is settled."


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

There's a recent article over at Seeking Alpha contributed by an individual who has been "short" CLNE since June, 2013. I have no dog in this fight; I do not invest in CLNE. What I found interesting was the timing of this article. It was dated May 30, 2014. Remember, this contributor is "short" CLNE.  Look at the price chart for CLNE this past week when the contributor wrote his article: on Wednesday, May 28, 2014, the stock was down to $10/share. Look at that jump on Thursday, May 30, 2014: up to $11.20. No wonder the writer sounded desperate.


C'est La Vie, Khaled

Saturday Morning News -- Last Day Of May, 2014

The word for the day: dwarf

Bloomberg is reporting on the futility of Obama's going-green efforts at expense of American taxpayer: 
In fact, both critics of the effort, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and environmentalists pressing for quicker action make a similar argument: Whatever the Obama administration does at home will be dwarfed by worldwide trends. 
Were U.S. emissions cut to zero, “global emissions would continue to increase,” Robert Stavins, director of Harvard University’s Environmental Economics Program, said in an e-mail. “So, the direct impacts of the new power plant rules on atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations will be small.”
But it will make us feel good. The good news: there has been no evidence of any warming for the past 18 years.

The Wall Street Journal

Federal investigators probing insider trading by Phil Mickelson
Federal investigators are pursuing a major insider-trading probe involving finance, gambling and sports, examining the trading of investor Carl Icahn, golfer Phil Mickelson and Las Vegas bettor William "Billy" Walters.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Securities and Exchange Commission are examining whether Mr. Mickelson and Mr. Walters traded illicitly on nonpublic information from Mr. Icahn about his investments in public companies, people briefed on the probe said. The FBI and SEC are examining whether Mr. Walters on at least one occasion passed a tip on to Mr. Mickelson, these people said, and are studying the two men's trading patterns.
"Phil is not the target of any investigation. Period," said a lawyer for Mr. Mickelson, Glenn Cohen, on Friday, adding that an FBI agent had told him Mr. Mickelson wasn't a target. The FBI declined to comment on Mr. Cohen's statement. Two FBI agents approached Mr. Mickelson on Thursday after he finished a round of golf at the Memorial Tournament in Dublin, Ohio, seeking to speak with him in connection with the investigation, a person familiar with the situation said. Mr. Mickelson referred them to his attorney, this person said.
Weak wages pose threat to liftoff for economy
A long-awaited liftoff in the U.S. economy is facing pressure from stubbornly weak wage growth, muddying the outlook for consumers and challenging Federal Reserve policy makers who are counting on a pickup as they unwind the central bank's extraordinary support for the recovery.
Growth in wage and salary income slowed to just 0.2% in April from the prior month, marking the weakest monthly increase of the year ....
After adjusting for inflation, wage and salary income was up 2% from a year earlier. The figures came in a report showing that U.S. consumer spending fell in April for the first time in a year even while inflation crept up. The weak start to the second quarter, coming after the U.S. economy in the first quarter contracted for the first time in three years, is challenging the thesis of economists and investors who have been counting on a 2014 growth breakout.
Those expectations have pushed U.S. stock benchmarks to record levels, while yields on safe Treasury bonds have dipped in part due to softer economic data.
Plover protections ruffle feathers in northeast
The ruckus began last July after an unleashed dog frolicking on a beach here killed a young bird.
The unlucky chick was a federally protected piping plover, and its death set off a chorus of squawking from all sides. Federal wildlife officials threatened the town with a $12,000 fine, required Scarborough to hire a "piping plover coordinator" and pushed the town to pass a new leash law.
Things got so contentious that citizens in dog suits picketed the town hall to protest the moves.
"It's pitted husband against wife," said Richard Sullivan, a member of the town council. "Neighbors and families are split over the issue."
Southern Maine isn't the only place getting ruffled over regulations to safeguard plovers—small, fragile, sandy-hued shorebirds that breed in the Great Lakes, Northern Great Plains and along the Atlantic Coast, where they were designated as threatened in 1986 after their numbers had plummeted.
Plover disputes have roiled communities from New York's Long Island to North Carolina for years, giving rise to a popular bumper sticker among those who think too much attention is paid to the birds' welfare: "Piping Plovers Taste Like Chicken."
The clashes have been particularly acrimonious along the densely inhabited New England coast, where towns have blocked off long sandy stretches to protect the rebounding plover population from dogs, dune-buggy drivers and beachgoers who leave trash that can attract predators. 
Russia, Ukraine near deal on gas bill -- posted last night

Demise of magazine distributor in Florida to take out 6,000 jobs
One of the biggest distributors of magazines in the U.S., Source Interlink Distribution, said on Friday that it will soon end "substantially all" of its business operations, putting its 6,000 employees out of work.
The wholesale distribution company, based in Bonita Springs, Fla., said it had tried to strike new terms with key publishers and national distributors over the last five months but failed to do so. Companies such as Source Interlink play a major role in the magazine business, arranging for printed magazines to be distributed to retailers large and small.
It has become a more difficult part of the business in recent years, as consumers increasingly use the Web to read digital content, including magazines. That shift has upended the economics of newsstand distribution. 
Rat poison D-Con to lose some potency; maker agrees to lessen the potency of its d-Con to address safety concerns raised by the EPA. Apparently, the EPA feels rats are safer in the home than d-Con.

Google's Motorola smartphone (Moto X) facility to close factory door in Texas. This was a huge story in the local news last night. The factory has not even been open for one year. Apparently, affects about 700 employees. Cites high costs. Now, remember, the country with the cheapest non-labor manufacturing costs in the world is probably the US and the factory in Ft Worth was very close to its customers. Let's see if the story mentions the 800-lb gorilla on the factory floor? From the article:
Poor Moto X sales meant the company couldn't achieve economies of scale, he said, while costs for labor and shipping parts were higher than in overseas plants.
Nope, nothing about the 800-lb gorilla, $5,000/employee for ObamaCare-mandated health care. 

Gold falls to lowest prices in four months as Ukraine crisis eases.

The Los Angeles Times

The headline:  Bodies of 52 vets accumulate at morgue; L.A. County can't explain why.
Over the last 15 months, 52 unclaimed bodies of U.S. military veterans accumulated at the Los Angeles County morgue because nobody arranged transportation to Riverside National Cemetery for burial.
As of Thursday, the county could not explain why. "All the people who touched this process are working together to figure out how this occurred," said county spokesman David Sommers.
The problem began in 2013, after Rose Hills Mortuaries in Alhambra, which transported the bodies of homeless veterans under a charity program, started turning down some bodies that it said did not meet eligibility requirements.
And now the process will start over:
As for the 52 bodies that arrived from the morgue, the coroner's office must follow its standard protocol and independently verify the identities of the dead, Harvey said. In most cases, federal approval for the burials has probably expired, and reauthorization will be required.
I think if one watches the movie LA Confidential one will have a better appreciation for the county.


Sony Pictures Imageworks is moving its Los Angeles-area headquarters to Canada.
In a further blow to Southern California's visual-effects industry, Sony Pictures Imageworks is moving its Los Angeles-area headquarters to Canada.
One of Hollywood's leading visual effects companies said Friday that it will move into a new facility in Vancouver that will accommodate up to 700 employees. It isn't clear how many of the company's 270 workers based in Culver City will lose their jobs, though some will be offered a chance to relocate.
The announcement was met with dismay in Southern California's beleaguered visual-effects industry, which has been buffeted by the effects of outsourcing and runaway production.
Let's see if the 800-lb gorilla in the room is mentioned in this story?
Although the visual effects industry was pioneered in California, local companies have had an increasingly difficult time competing with rivals in Canada, Britain and India that benefit from tax credits or cheaper labor. More than half a dozen California visual-effects houses have shut down or filed for bankruptcy in recent years.
Nope, no mention of ObamaCare. The reasons were all about tax credits that Canada provides the film industry, but California does not. Biting the hand that feeds you.


Ah, yes, the blue screen of death -- after every game the LA Clippers lose, coming to a monitor near you. Microsoft billionaire Steve Ballmer to buy the LA Clippers. His $2.0-billion bid beat Oprah's $1.2 billion. It was a "silent auction." No re-attacks. The best Sterling had hoped for was $1 billion. Now he's suing because ... well, I'm not sure why he's suing. [I have almost 15,000 posts; I update several posts every day. I rarely get comments. But I actually have folks writing me .... defending ... Mr Sterling. LOL.]

3.8-magnitude earthquake overnight ten miles from San Pedro, California.

Total (French Oil) Leaving The Canadian Oil Sands -- Costs $90/Bbl -- Sells For $85/Bbl


Later, 7:16 p.m. central time: how coincidental. In the original post below, The WSJ noted that "western Canadian oil fetches about $85." I was reading the most recent issue of Bloomberg Businessweek, p. 16: "As rail activity has ramped up and demand for Alberta's heavy crude has increased, so has its price, jumping from about $50 a barrel in November to more than $85." 
Original Post
There are a lot of story lines in this story. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
French oil major Total is getting out of the sandbox. The toys are just too expensive.
The company is putting its Joslyn oil-sands project in Canada on indefinite hold. BMO Capital Markets estimates the project's cost at north of $90 a barrel.
Right now, Western Canadian oil fetches about $85.
Total's move is part of a broader shift. Some 450,000 barrels a day of potential output has been deferred this year, according to Sanford C. Bernstein.
Western oil majors are doing what the stock market wants. Having seen returns on capital slump, investors want more payouts and less spending.
And then this:
But Big Oil's retreat also comes when all the excitement, with stock-price multiples to match, is around smaller competitors pioneering shale development.
Their output, particularly in North America, has helped keep oil prices stable despite geopolitical shocks elsewhere. The question is whether the smaller exploration and production companies can keep doing this.
If so, the majors' curtailed production may not boost oil prices as much as could be expected. They might simply lose market share to more innovative minnows instead.

Week 22: May 25, 2014 -- May 31, 2014

CLR's Whitman #2, ($20210) goes over the one-million-bbl milestone
Random look at activity north of Williston: Tyrone, Missouri Ridge
Improving Bakken wells -- EOG experience
KOG reports three "high-IP" wells

EOG philosophy on re-fracking
Global fracking patents hit record number last year

Bakken Economy
24-hou Cash Wise grocery store opens in Tioga, oil capitol of North Dakota

Are we underestimating North America's fracking boom?
The Bakken shale is part of an exclusive club among global oil fields
On track for 2,800 permits for calendar year 2014
History of the early Bakken, 2004 - 2006
Musings, May 29, 2014
500% increase in number of pick-up trucks being delivered to Fargo, ND; St Paul, MN

Aerial photos of the Hagen/White wells in the Banks oil field
Incredible aerial photography: see if you can guess location of pad

Friday, May 30, 2014

Some Non-Bakken International Energy News From Rigzone; California Says "YES" To Fracking; Ukraine Blinks

Rigzone is reporting, DOI permits XOM to drill in Gulf of Mexico:
The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) awarded the first three oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico boundary area subject to the U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement Friday.
Exxon Mobil Corp. was awarded the leases, which are located in the Alaminos Canyon Area of the Gulf of Mexico, approximately 170 miles east of Port Isabel, Texas.
The company bid on the blocks, which are located or partially located within the 3 statute miles of the maritime and continental shelf boundary with Mexico, as part of the Western Planning Area Lease Sale 233 in August 2013. The agreement, which was approved by U.S. Congress in December of last year and signed into law Dec. 26, 2013 by President Obama, will make nearly 1.5 million additional acres of U.S. Outer Continental Shelf acreage more accessible for exploration and production.
DOI’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management estimates this area to hold as much as 172 million barrels of oil and 304 billion cubic feet of natural gas.
[Interesting, surprising. They say there is 172 million bbls of oil in this block -- about equal to 200 Bakken wells -- the number of Bakken wells drilled each month. 50 million boe (natural gas): 50 + 170 = 220; 77% oil; 23% natural gas.]
Reuters via Rigzone is reporting, Statoil, 1; Greenpeace, 0.
Norway's Coast Guard on Friday evening towed away a Greenpeace ship that tried to block Statoil's rig from drilling the world's most northerly oil well in the Barents Sea, the environment group said.
Oil drillers in Norway are moving further north as mature fields in the south are depleted and as the Arctic ice retreats, opening new areas that were previously unaccessible. U.S. estimates show the Arctic may hold 13 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its gas.
The activists taken off the rig - from Denmark, Finland, Norway, the Philippines and Sweden - were released without charge and were all well. Greenpeace said on Friday they were happy by managing to stop the drilling at least for 89 hours. Statoil said delays to the start of drilling cost the company about 7.5 million crowns ($1.26 million) per day.
[Comment: that was fast. It was reported just yesterday that Greenpeace had arrived on scene one day before the Statoil ship arrived on scene; the court acted very, very quickly.]
Rigzone is reporting, California says "YES" to fracking.
California state Senate lawmakers voted down a second year in a row a bill to temporarily ban fracking.
A handful of California State Senate Democrats joined with Republicans to vote down the bill, Reuters reported Friday. California Gov. Jerry Brown could halt fracking through an executive order, but the move is unlikely, given that Brown has said that hydraulic fracturing is good for the state because it is better to produce oil in California than import it, Reuters reported Friday.
[Comment: LOL.]
Reuters via Rigzone is reporting, Ukraine blinks.
Ukraine told Russia on Friday a $786 million partial payment for back gas bills was on its way to Moscow, clearing the way for further talks on Monday ....
The partial payment on a bill that Russia says could exceed $5 billion by next week also averted an immediate threat that Russia would stop supplying gas to Ukraine if it fails to make advance payments.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak welcomed the news that Ukraine said it had transferred funds to Moscow from Kiev via a New York bank on Friday afternoon but said Russia would wait for confirmation that the payment has arrived in Moscow.
[Comment: the question I asked earlier, remains -- who came up with the cash. It's been widely reported that the Ukraine is financially "broke" and could not pay the bill. There are only two countries that have that much cash who would be willing to pay the bill -- will The New York Times sort this out?]

Random Look at Permits Issued in 2006 -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Periodically I like to see how older wells are doing now that we are into the seventh year of the North Dakota Bakken boom (updated May 30, 2014).

From my database for permits issued in 2006, I looked at the 20 wells with the highest IPs.

These are the results.
  • 16346, 1,800, EOG, Bartleson 1-3H, Parshall, t11/06; cum 432K 3/14;
  • 16497, 1,675, EOG, Hoff 1-10H, Parshall, t6/07; cum 417K 3/14;
  • 16484, 1,670, EOG, Wenco 1-30H, Parshall, t9/07; cum 434K 3/14;
  • 16370, 1,553, EOG, Warberg 1-25H, Parshall, t1/07; cum 381K 3/14;
  • 16461, 1,487, EOG, Patten 1-02H, Parshall, t3/07; cum 450K 3/14;
  • 16485, 1,468, EOG, Hovda 1-08H, Parshall, t9/08; cum 372K 3/14;
  • 16469, 1,267, EOG, Herbert 1-26H, Parshall, t12/07; cum 502K 3/14;
  • 16463, 1,081, Whiting, Peery State 11-25H, Sanish, t5/07; cum 384K 3/14;
  • 16457, 922, EOG, C & B 1-31H, Parshall, t5/07; cum 419K 3/14;
  • 16371, 918, EOG, Ehlert 1-35H, Parshall, t4/07; cum 500K 3/14;
  • 16324, 883, EOG, Parshall 2-36H, Parshall, t9/06; cum 313K 3/14;
  • 16483, 870, EOG, Zacher 1-24H, Parshall, t6/07; cum 472K 3/14;
  • 16486, 824, EOG, Detienne 1-07H, Parshall; , t4/08; cum 337K 3/14;
  • 16327, 786, MRO, Benz 14-21H, Bailey, t9/10; cum 193K 3/14;
  • 16467, 783, EOG, Geving 1-09H, Parshall, t8/07; cum 315K 3/14;
  • 16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson, t10/06; cum 1.43 million bbls 3/14; be sure to read the comment at this post.
  • 16424, 700, Petro-Hunt, USA 11B-2-2H, Charlson, t7/07; cum 489K 3/14;
  • 16489, 699, CLR, Davis 11-32SH, Cedar Hills, a North Red River B well; t6/07; cum 204K 3/14;
  • 16143, 698, CLR, Kay 11-20NH, Cedar Hills, a North Red River B well; t6/06; cum 318K 3/14;
  • 16827, 355, CLR, Eagon 44-1SH, Cedar Hills, a North Red River B well; t2/07; cum 331K 3/14;
BEXP was issued three permits in 2006:
  • 16321, 80, BEXP, Mrachek 15-22, Elk, t12/06; cum 117K 3/14;
  • 16173, 141, BEXP, Field 18-19 1H, Todd, t7/06; cum 67K 3/14;
  • 16276, 156, BEXP, Erickson 8-17 1H, Painted Woods, t11/06; cum 79K 3/14;

Some Insight Into How Legacy Fund Monies Will Be Invested -- Slate.Com

I last posted an update on the Legacy Fund a few days ago, but I still wasn't able to see how / if the fund's proceeds were going to be invested. A reader found the answer in, of all places:
Instead, the fund is gingerly dipping its toes into the water. Hunter and his team have developed a conservative investment allocation similar to that seen in other pensions—50 percent stocks, 35 percent bonds and 15 percent real estate and other assets. “We’re phasing into that and expect it will be fully implemented by January 2015,” Hunter said.
A big "thank you" to Steve who sent me this link, as well as several others I will be posting over the weekend. Thank you.

On Track For 2,800 Permits In 2014; Compare To 2,519 In 2013

Because May 31, 2014, occurs on the weekend, the next permits for this year will be dated June 2, 2014.

As of May 31, for the following years, # of permits to date, and projection of permits for the corresponding year based on that number:
  • 2014: 1,151 permits to date; projected 2,801 permits for calendar year 2014
  • 2013: 1,035 permits to date; projected 2,519 permits for calendar year 2013
  • 2012: 868 permits to date; projected 2,112 permits for calendar year 2012

Nineteen (19) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Active rigs:

Active Rigs189186214172119

Nineteen (19) new permits --
  • Operators: Whiting (5), KOG (4), Statoil (4), Hunt (3), Emerald (2), Oasis
  • Fields: Sand Creek (McKenzie), Truax (Williams), East Fork (Williams), Alexandria (Divide), Green River (Stark), Cottonwood (Burke)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Two Fidelity Ridl permits were canceled (#27569 and 27570). They were in the Green River oil field.

Operator transfer:
  • a page-full of older wells were transferred from Liberty Resources, LLC, to Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC 
Hess: 2014 Annual Meeting of Stockholders

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
High points from the PowerPoint presentation; if link is missing and folks have question, I have the presentation saved.

  • current share price: $92
  • BoA/M/L target: $128
  • Hess, completing switch from natural-gas focus to oil focus
  • closing on retail division sale to MRO
  • plans to monetize midstream assets with MLP spin-off; to provide additional cash returns
  • the Bakken, in general, better than anticipated several years ago
  • 640,000 net acres in the Bakken; Hess holds some of the "better" Bakken acreage
  • Hess Tioga natural gas processing plant expansion complete; that's behind them
  • this past year, increased annual divided 150%; many Bakken operators "unable" to pay any dividend, much less increase existing dividends
  • up to $4 billion share repurchase funded by 2013 restructuring; commenced 3Q13
  • company expects to be free cash flow positive post 2014
Now, the high points from the slides. Although the slide presentation includes updates regarding all of Hess' operations worldwide, I will concentrate only on the Bakken

Slide 8: unconventional (Bakken)
  • free cash flow positive in 2015
  • goal of 150,000 boepd by 2018
  • leading position in emerging Utica wet gas window
  • US unconventional production will equal rest of Hess worldwide production by 2017
Slide 9: Company -- percent liquid
  • Hess: 80%
  • MRO: 79%
  • OXY: 73%
  • MUR: 72%
  • COP: 62%
  • EOG: 60%
  • AP: 54%
  • DVN: 48%
  • APC: 45%
Slide 10:  Industry Leading Cash Margin -- $/BOE -- 2013 --- 2009 - 2013
  • Hess: $49 - $37
  • MUR: $41 - $35
  • OXY: $36 - $32
  • EOG: $35 - $28
  • APA: $33 - $30
  • COP: $32 - $27
  • CHK: $18 - $19
Slide 13: Bakken Operations
  • single biggest contributor to production growth through 2018
  • tighter infill testing program underway ni 2014
  • 640,000 net acres; all in the better-to-best Bakken
  • 17-rig program in 2014; CAPEX of $2.2 billion
  • 2014 net production forecast: 85,000 boepd
  • 2016 net production forecast: 125,000 boepd
  • 2018 net production forecast: 150,000 boepd
  • 2013 30-day IPs: 750 - 900 boepd
  • 2013 EURs: 550,000 - 650,000 boe
  • > 3,000 total operated drilling locations
  • (17 rigs x 9 wells/year = 150 wells/year = 20 years of inventory)
Slide 14: improving performance
  • drilling performance, spud-to-spud, days: 45 days (1Q11) down to 23 days (1Q14
  • drl/completions costs:  $13.4 million (1Q12); $7.5 million (1Q14)
Slide 15: Tioga Rail Terminal
  • Tioga rail terminal: 54,000 bopd; expandable to 120,000
  • 9 crude oil train sets; 104 cars each
  • entire fleet: Petition 1577 standards
  • 240,000 bbls crude oil storage
  • 12,000 b/d NGL loading capacity
Slide 15: Tioga Gas Plant
  • expansion from 110 million cfpd to 250 million cfpd
  • increased NGL fractionation
  • ethane sold under under long-term contract

History Of The Early Bakken, North Dakota, 2004 - 2006

Note: there may be typographical errors. If I am alerted to them, I will correct them.

This is a list of all Bakken wells, starting back in 2004, drilled leading up to this boom. These are all middle Bakken wells.

They are listed chronologically; older ones at the top; more recent ones at the bottom. I stopped at #15367 going backwards; #15367 was drllled in 2003.

Therefore, not counting #8201, which was a re-entry well drilled in 2004, the first Bakken well leading up to the current boom that I found was drilled in late 2004, #15570, which was dry.

The last Bakken well in this list was drilled in 2007 and is still active (#16498). So, unless I missed one or two, these are ALL the Bakken wells that were drilled between 2004 and the end of 2006 leading up to the current boom, which I think began in 2007 in North Dakota (2000 in Montana).

I did not include Bakken wells that were initially permitted and then canceled (PNC). I left a note to myself to start at #15366 and working backwards if interested in searching for any other earlier Bakken wells.

So, starting from #15570 and going through #16498, one gets a pretty good idea of the early Bakken wells.

Some things I noted:
  • the southwestern play in the Bakken seemed to hold the most interest early on
  • based on IPs and production to date, it's hard to imagine many of these wells were "economical," but on the other hand, almost all of them are still active; very few Bakken wells, no matter how small in production, have been taken off-line over the years
  • "holding by production" cannot be the reason many of these wells are still kept on-line; better wells have sprung up around them
  • for all the credit we give Harold Hamm (CLR) as being the "face of the Bakken," note how relatively few Bakken wells in this time period were actually drilled by CLR
  • note how tenacious these oil companies were; despite well after well that was not particularly exciting, they continued to drill very expensive wells
Even with these early "less-than-stunning" results, the analysts were saying:
I have not counted them, but look how long it takes to scroll down to find the first "exciting" Bakken well: perhaps the first "exciting" well drilled in the Bakken in North Dakota was the Murex well drilled in late 2006; note the IP compared to others prior to this one and its production:
  • 16284, 412, Murex, Amy Lynette 14-23H, Beaver Lodge, t9/06; cum 236K 3/14;
The next exciting well, perhaps it was this one:
  • 16324, 883, EOG, Parshall 2-36H, Parshall, t9/06; cum 313K 3/14;
After that well, operators continued without much success throughout the Bakken,  but EOG drilled a second well in the Parshall, and it was a stunner:
  • 16346, 1,800, EOG, Bartleson 1-3H, Parshall, t11/06; cum 432K 3/14
That was late 2006, but it wasn't until mid-2007, that EOG had two more good Bakken wells in the Parshall oil field:
  • 16369, 1,553, EOG, Warberg 1-25H, Parshall, t1/07; cum 381K 3/14;
  • 16370, 918, EOG, Ehlert 1-35H, Parshall, t4/07; cum 500K, 3/14; 
EOG continued to have success in the Parshall oil field, but even by mid-2007, there wasn't a whole lot of success, certainly not compared to what we are seeing now.

So, without further ado, here's the list:
  • 8201, 87, CRL, Robert Heuer 1-17R, a re-entry in a Madison -- DRY -- hole; Sadler field, 319,444 lbs of 20/40 sand; short lateral; t3/04; cum 112K 3/14; 
  • Other early Bakken wells (does not include PNC):
  • Start backwards from 15366 (2003)
  • 15570, DRY, Ceja Corporation, Lund 42-9, completed 9/04
  • 15583, 64, a Red River well re-entered in 2005; XTO, Federal 23X-3, Mondak, t1/05; cum 63K 3/14;
  • 15487, one month from Bakken, o/w Birdbear well, Emerald, Haugen Coates 2-4, Boxcar Butte
  • 15525, DRY, Petrosearch Operating, Petrosearch Zastoupil 26-1, wildcat, compl 11/04;
  • 15534, DRY, Petrosearch Operating, Petrosearch Zastoupil 26-1A, wildcat, compl 3/07;
  • 15667, AB/90, ERF, Titan A-Rase Ranch 4-2-H, Beicegel Creek, t1/05; cum 21K 3/14; 
  • 15668, 140, CLR, Miller 44-7H, Baukol Noonan, t1/05; cum 38K 3/14;
  • 15674, 401, Hess, State 36-31H, Beaver Lodge, t5/05; cum 195K 3/14;
  • 15683, 426, Murex, Stacey-Lynne 1-12H, West Bank, t3/05; cum 335K 3/14; 
  • 15692, 505, XTO, State Logosz 44X-16, St Demetrius, t4/05; cum 68K 3/14;
  • 15693, 191, XTO, Klandl State 14X-36, Mondak, t11/05; cum 117< 3/14;
  • 15744, 102, Hess, Lars Kvan 19-34H, Beaver Lodge, t7/05; cum 29K 3/14;
  • 15755, 190, Petro-Hunt, 20411 JV-P Melgaard 211 1-H, Stoneview, t7/05; cum 143K 3/14;
  • 15757, 250, XTO, Hove 11X-35, t5/05; cum 50K 3/14; 
  • 15761, 179, Baytex, 20406 JV-P Moraine 211 1-H, Whiteaker, t8/05; cum 53K 3/14;
  • 15772, 262, CLR, Burau 4-22H, Larson, t7/05; cum 4K 3/14;
  • 15777, 78, XTO, Eide 11X-29, McGregor, t8/05; cum 24K 3/14;
  • 15787, A, Murex, Angela Kaye 2-11H, West Bank, test date/IP not provided, cum 229K 3/14
  • 15789, 376, XTO, Paluck 41X-28, t8/05; cum 128K 3/14;
  • 15806, 42, BR, Federal amy 14-8H, Mondak, t10/05; cum 27K 3/14;
  • 15808, 250, CLR, Rindel 3-9HD, t9/05; cum 83K 3/14;
  • 15824, 334, OXY USA, Miller 44-31H, Willmen, t8/05; cum 133K 3/14;
  • 15832, 396, Hess, Russell E. Smith 24-43H, Capa, t11/05; cum 158K 3/14; 
  • 15845, 155, Hess, Nelson Farms 1-24H, Ross, t10/05; cum 97K 3/14;
  • 15846, 118, Petro-Hunt, 20501 JV-P Battleview 1621 1H, North Tioga, t11/05; cum 24K 3/14;
  • 15851, 231, XTO, McKenzie Federal 14X-31, Mondak, t12/05; cum 79K 3/14;
  • 15854, 368, MRO, Fedora 34-22H, Bailey, t10/05; cm 154K 31/4;
  • 15878, 72, Triangle USA, Sigma-Lee 14-3, Squires, t3/06; cum 60K 3/14;
  • 15887, 222, MRO, Voss 14-11H, Murphy Creek, t10/05; cum 112K 3/14;
  • 15889, IA/38, Hess, Sara G. Barstad 6-44H, Alkali Creek, t12/05; cum 26K 3/14;
  • 15905, 73, Bakken Hunter, Points 2-11H, Paulson, t1/06; cum 28K 3/14; 
  • 15908, 37, BR, State Lindsey 41-28H, Pierre Creek, t11/05; cum 88K 3/14; before it was bought by COP
  • 15916, 71, Missouri River Royalty Corp, Manitou 4-1H, Manitou, t5/06; cum 31K 3/14;
  • 15917, 32, Petro-Hunt, 20411 JV-P Kouvax 1423, Stoneview, t12/05; cum 20K 3/14;
  • 15919, 189, Murex, Susan Kaye 6-7H, t1/05; cum 168K 3/14; 
  • 15920, 67, SM Energy, Mondak Federal 4-1H, t5/06; cum 27K 3/14;
  • 15922, 40, Anschutz, Ficek 41-21H, St Anthony, t1/16; cum 17K 3/14;
  • 15923, 80, XTO, Titan E-Gierke 20-1-H, Siverston, t1/06; cum 37K 3/14;
  • 15925, IA/5, Hess, Edward Will Trsut 23-44H, Big Butte, t1/06; cum 30K 3/14; 
  • 15927, PA/80, a re-entered Madison well in 2006; Whiting, Hecker 13-16, Four Eyes, t2/96; cum 11K 3/14;
  • 15928, 483, XTO, Anheluk 44X-23, St Demetrius, t1/06; cum 87K 3/14;
  • 15934, PA/82, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 4D-4-2H, Little Knife, t5/06; cum 13K 3/14;
  • 15942, 17, Murex, Leslie Earl 13-24H, Temple, t2/06; cum 17K 3/14;
  • 15986, 70, Hess, J. Horst 1-11H, Robinson Lake, t2/6; cum 35K 3/14; 
  • 15984, 54, CLR, Buck 3-8H, Juno, t1/06; cum 11K 3/14;
  • 15989, 191, OXY USA/Anschutz, Franchuk 44-5H, Willmen, t5/06; cum 99K 10/13;
  • 15986, 70, Hess, J. Horst 1-11H, Robinson Lake, t2/06; cum 34K 10/13;
  • 15984, 54, CLR, Buck 3-8H, Juno, t1/06; cum 10K 10/13;
  • 15942, 17, Murex, Leslie Learl 13-24H, t2/06; cum 17K 10/13;
  • 15934, 82/PA, Petro-Hunt, Zobolotny 4D-4-2H, Little Knife, t5/06; cum 13K 10/13; 
  • 15920, 67, SM Energy, Mondak Federal 4-1H, t5/06; cum 26K 10/13;
  • 15919, 189, Murex, Susan Kaye 6-7H, t12/05; cum 163K 10/13;
  • 15917, 32, Petro-Hunt, 20411 JV-P Koufax 1423, Stoneview, t12/05; cum 20K 10/13;
  • 15916, 71, Samuel Gary/Missouri River Royalty, Manitou 4-1H, t5/06; cum 30K 10/13;
  • 15908, 37, BR, State Lindsey 41-28H, Pierre Creek, t11/05; cum 86K 10/13;
  • 15905, 73, Bakken Hunter, Points 2-11H, Paulson, t1/06; cum 24K 10/13;
  • 15889, 38/IA, Hess, Sara g. Barstad 6-44H, Alkali Creek, t12/05; cum 26K 10/13;
  • 15887, 222, MRO, Voss 14-11H, Murphy Creek, t10/05; cum 109K 10/13;
  • 15878, 72, Triangle USA, Sigma-Lee 14-3, Squires, t3/06; cum 59K 10/13;
  • 15854, 368, MRO, Fedora 34-22H, Bailey, t10/05; cum 152K 10/13;
  • 15851, 231, XTO, McKenzie Federal 14X-31, t12/05, cum 78K 11/13;
  • 15846, 118, Petro-Hunt, 20501 JV-P Battleview 1621 1-H,
  • 15845, 155, Hess, Nelson Farms 1-24H, t10/05; cum 95K 11/13;
  • 15824, 334, OXY USA, Miller 44-31H, t8/05; cum 131K 11/13;
  • 15808, 250, CLR, Rindel 3-9 HD, Juno, t9/05; cum 81K 11/13;
  • 15806, 42, BR, Federal Amy 14-8H, Mondak, t10/05, cum 27K 11/13;
  • 15789, 476, XTO, Paluck 41X-28, St Demetrius, t8/05, cum 126K 11/13;
  • 15787, n/d, Murex, Angela Kaye 2-11H, West Bank, t-- ; cum 227K 11/13;
  • 15777, 78, XTO, Eide 11X-29, McGregor, t8/05; cum 23K 11/13;
  • 15772, 262, CLR, Burau 4-22H, Larson, t7/05; cum 4K 11/13;
  • 15761, 179, Baytex, 20406 JV-P Moraine 211 1-H, Whiteaker, t8/05; cum 52K 11/13; 
  • 15772, 262, CLR, Burau 4-22H, t7/05; cum 35K 12/13;
  • 15778, 78, XTO, Eide 11X-29, t8/05; cum 23K 12/13;
  • 15787, N/A, Murex, Angela Kaye 2-11H, West Bank, s7/05; cum 227K 12/13;
  • 15789, 376, XTO, Paluck 41X-28, St Demetrius, t8/05; cum 126K 12/13;
  • 15806, IA/42, BR, Federal Amy 14-8H, Mondak, t10/05; cum 27K 12/13;
  • 15809, 250, CLR, Rindel 3-9 HD, Juno, t9/05; cum 81K 12/13;
  • 15824, 334, OXY USA, Miller 44-31H, Willmen, t8/05; cum 132K 12/13;
  • 15832, 396, Hess, Russell E Smith 24-43H, Capa, t11/05; cum 156K 12/13;
  • 15845, 155, Hess, Nelson Farms 1-24H, Ross, t10/05; cum 96K 12/13;
  • 15846, 118, Petro-Hunt, 20501 JV-P Battleview 1621 1-H, N. Tioga, t11/05; cum 23K 12/13;
  • 15851, 231, XTO, McKenzie Federal 14X-31, t12/05; cum 78K 12/13;
  • 15854, 368, MRO, Fedora 34-22H, Bailey, t10/05; cum 153K 12/13;
  • 15878, 72, Triangle Pete, Sigma-Lee 14-3, Squires, 1 mill lbs sand; t3/06; cum 59K 12/13;
  • 15887, 222, MRO, Voss 14-11H, Murphy, t10/05; cum 110K 12/13;
  • 15889, IA/38, Hess, Sara g. Barstad 6-44H, t12/05; cum 26K 12/13;
  • 15905, IA/73, Bakken Hunter, Points 2-11H, t1/06; cum 25K 12/13;
  • 15908, 37, BR, State Lindsey 41-28H, Pierre Creek, t11/05; cum 88K 1/14; 
  • 15917, 32, Petro-Hunt, 20411 JV-P Kouvax 1423, Stoneview, t12/05; cum 20K 1/14;
  • 15920, 189, Murex, Susan Kaye 6-7H, West Bank, 3 laterals; t12/05; cum 166K 1/14;
  • 15923, PA/40, Anschutz, Ficek 41-21H, St Anthony, t1/06; cum 17K 4/10;
  • 15925, IA/5, Hess, Edward Will Trsut 23-44, Big Butte, t1/06; cum 30K 11/12;
  • 15927, PA/80, Whiting, Hecker 13-16, Four Eyes, t2/06; cum 11K 8/09;
  • 15928, 483, XTO, Anheluk 44X-23, St Demetrius, t1/06; cum 86K 1/14;
  • 15934, PA/82, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 4D-4-2H, Little Knife, t5/06; cum 13K 6/10;
  • 15942, 17, Murex, Leslie Earl 13-24H, Temple, t2/06; cum 17K 1/14;
  • 15984, 54, CLR, Buck 3-8H, Juno, t1/06; cum 11K 1/14;
  • 15986, 70, Hess, J. Horst 1-11H, Robinson Lake, t2/06; cum 35K 1/14;
  • 15989, 191, OXY USA, Franchuk 44-5H, t5/06; cum 100k 1/14;
  • 16011, 47, Hess, H. Juma 1-9H, Baskin, t6/06; cum 38K 1/14;
  • 16030, 126, Whiting, Violet Olson 31-29H, Dollar Joe, t3/06; cum 42K 1/14;
  • 16031, 624, OXY USA, Kadrmas 41-1H, Willmen, t9/06; cum 168K 3/14
  • 16033, 179, XTO, Chruszch 11X-20, St Demetrius, t4/06; cm 48K 3/14;
  • 16035, 302, Murex, Leann Rae 28-33H, Midway, t4/06; cum 208K 3/14;
  • 16036, 118, Whiting, Federal 16-8H, Four Eyes, t8/06; cum 38K 3/14;
  • 16054, 132, XTO, Hellickson Paluck 44X-24, St Demetrius, t10/06; cum 32K 3/14;
  • 16055, 461, XTO, Sveen 14X-34, Capa, t9/06; cum 244K 3/14;
  • 16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson, t10/06; cum 1.43 million 4/14; see first comment.  A Three Forks well. I'm not even sure this well was ever fracked. Be sure to read the first two comments below.
  • 16068, 104, Whiting, Bartleson 44-1H, Sanish, t5/06; cum 169K 3/14;
  • 16075, 257, XTO, Gawrylow 44X-30, Bullsnake, t6/06; cum 61K 3/14;
  • 16076, 291, XTO, State Federal 44X-16, Mondak, t6/06; cum 65K 3/14;
  • 16083, 152, Hess, Anderson Smith 1-26H, Capa, t2/07; cum 195K 3/14;
  • 16086, AB/303, Murex, Erin Lynn 3-10H, West Bank, t5/06; cum 123K 3/14; last prod 2/11;
  • 16089, 23, Baytex, Nordstog 14-23-161-98H, Whiteaker, t5/06; cum 42K 3/14; 
  • 16092, IA/92, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-6H, Sanish, t6/06; cum 33K 3/14; probable temp IA;
  • 16098, 500, Hess, Ferguson Smith 1-30H, Capa, t8/06; cum 274K 3/14;
  • 16099, 314, Tracker, Gamma-State 16-15, Catwalk, short hz; t5/06; cum 64K 3/14;
  • 16100, 255, CLR, Xavier 1-10H, St Demetrius, t5/06; cum 103K 3/14;
  • 16117, 193, XTO, Tracy Federal 44X-4, Mondak, long hz, t9/06; cum 73K 3/14;
  • 16124, 40, Samson Resources, Strom 25-36-163-99H, t7/06; cum 155K 3/14;
  • 16153, 488, XTO, Krushevsky Logosz 41x-35, St Demetrius, t9/06; cum 123K 3/14;
  • 16160, TA/23, Hess, Nelson 1-11H, Enget Lake, t6/06; cum 5K 6/07;
  • 16161, 160, Sinclair, Carmona 31-1H, Ranch Creek, t7/06; cum 35K 3/14;
  • 16162, 82, Emerald Oil, Kodiak Grizzly 13-6H, Mondak, t7/06; cum 63K 3/14; 
  • 16163, dry, Duncan Oil, Hauck 1-27, wildcat, Three Forks well, t4/06; 
  • 16164, 463, EOG, Parshall 136H, Parshall, t6/06; cum 188K 3/14;
  • 16168, 46, Hess, Enget 4-11H, Sorkness, t/06; cum 33K 3/14;
  • 16169, 393, Emerald, Kodiak Federal 4-11H, Mondak, t10/06; cum 141K 3/14;
  • 16170, 564, XTO, Hatter 11X-34, Mondak, t10/06; cum 246K 3/14;
  • 16172, 219, CLR, Natalie 1-2H, Fairfield, t7/06; cum 121K 3/14;
  • 16173, 141, Statoil, Field 18-19 1H, Todd, t7/06; cum 66K 3/14; 
  • 16174, 135, CLR, Titan F-WP 332-14H, Mondak, t6/07; cum 30K 3/14;
  • 16178, 215, OXY USA, Dvorak 11-4H, Russian Creek, t8/06; cum 168K 3/14;
  • 16180, 128, MRO, Marlin 24-12H, Chimney Butte, t8/06; cum 218K 3/14;
  • 16185, 136, XTO, Rhoades Federal 4-20H, Rough Rider, t11/06; cum 39K 3/14; 
  • 16186, 439, Murex, Angie Marie 13-24H, Beaver Lodge, t7/06; cum 342K 3/14;  
  • 16187, 428, MRO, Connolly 31-14H, Bailey, t9/06; cum 141K 3/14;
  • 16192, 152, OXY USA, Pavlicek 44-32H, Willmen, t11/06; cum 24K 3/14;
  • 16193, PA/65, Anschutz, Sivak 13-29H, Hungry Man Butte, t12/06; cum 2K 3/14;
  • 16207, IA/136, CLR, Zimmerman 1-13H, Border, t11/06; cum 60K 3/14;
  • 16208, 160, CLR, Fenster 1-11H, Dolphin, t2/07; cum 51K 3/14;
  • 16210, 63, CLR, Gloria 1-18H, St Demetrius, t10/06; cum 31K 3/14;
  • 16211, 181, OXY USA, State 11-32H, Willmen, t3/07; cum 78K 3/14;  
  • 16221, 206, Cornerstone, Bailey, t12/06; cum 76K 4/14;
  • 16224, 151, OXY USA, Steffan 13-29H, Willmen, t4/07; cum 38K 3/14;
  • 16229, 110, OXY USA, Anderson State 43-30H, Little Knife, t1/07; cum 93K 3/14;
  • 16233, 20, Hess, H. Rice 1-26H, White Earth, t11/06; cum 10K 3/14;
  • 16249, 82, CLR, Lovdahl 1-16H, Sauk, t11/06; cum 108K 3/14;
  • 16254, 112,  CLR, Miller 24-25-162-96H, Baukol Noonan, t4/07; cum 28K 3/14;
  • 16255, 72, OXY USA, Kadrmas 11-25H, Russian Creek, t7/07; cum 32K 3/14;
  • 16269, 90, XTO, Kulish 21-11H, Murphy Creek, t9/06; cum 137K, 3/14;
  • 16276, 156, Statoil/BEXP, Erickson 8-17 1H, Painted Woods, t11/06; cum 79K 3/14;
  • 16277, 238, OX USA, Gresz State 14-36H, Little Knife, t10/06; cum 67K 3/14;
  • 16284, 412, Murex, Amy Lynette 14-23H, Beaver Lodge, t9/06; cum 236K 3/14;
  • 16285, IA/181, Whiting, Foss 21-30H, Dollar Joe, t5/07; cum 20K 3/14; check later;
  • 16292, 76, Hess, Lalim D. 34-11H, Manitou, t12/06; cum 76K 3/14;
  •  16300, PA/260, KOG, Grizzly Federal 1-27H, Mondak, t12/06; cum 39K 3/14;
  • 16302, 103, Samson Resources, Haugland 16-21-163-98H, Bl. Prairie, t3/07; cum 51K 3/14;
  • 16303, 218, XTO, Obrigewitsch (sic) 44X-32, Glade, t12/06; cum 49K 3/14;
  • 16315, 278, XTO, Marmon Hahn Trust 11X-11, Alkali Creek, t9/07; cum 194K 3/14;
  • 16316, 280, CLR, Jensen 1-5H, Chimney Butte, t1/07; cum 171K 3/14;
  • 16317, 82, Sinclair, Dolezal 24-24H, Ranch Creek, t11/06; cum 34K 3/14;
  •  16319, 410, XTO, Bear Den State 2-36H, Bear Den, t4/08; cum 102K 3/14;
  • 16320, 80, Statoil/BEXP, Mrachek 15-22, Elk, t12/06; cum 117K 3/14;
  • 16323, 57, Murex, Jacquie Lisset 5-8H, Beaver Lodge, t10/06; cum 75K 3/14;
  • 16324, 883, EOG, Parshall 2-36H, Parshall, t9/06; cum 313K 3/14;
  • 16325, 32, CLR, Cerkoney 1-9H, Glade, t1/07; cum 36K 3/14;
  • 16327, 786, MRO, Benz 14-21H, Bailey, t9/10; cum 191K 3/14;
  • 16328, 313, XTO, Marmon Hahn 44X-3, Hofflund, t1/07; cum 211K 3/14;
  • 16332, 182, Evertson Operating, Evertson AOG Champion 1-25H, Ray, t1/07; cum 28K 3/14;
  • 16333, 235, MRO, Stohler 21-3H, Bailey, t2/07; cum 310K 3/14;
  • 16343, 180, CLR, Urban 1-12H, St Demetrius, t5/07; cum 33K 3/14;
  • 16346, 1,800, EOG, Bartleson 1-3H, Parshall, t11/06; cum 432K 3/14; 
  • 16347, 315, XTO, Ongstad 41X-15, Tioga, t12/06; cum 145K 3/14;
  • 16348, 193, Petro-Hunt, Rice 10B-2-1H, East Tioga, t2/07; cum 101K 3/14;
  • 16351, 101, SM Energy, Froholm 2-24H, Phelps Bay, t3/07; cum 113K 3/14;
  • 16355, 81, Hess, T. Lalim 11-14H, Tioga, t2/07; cum 41K 3/14;
  • 16357, 371, BR, Veeder 14-13H, Blue Buttes, t2/07; cum 209K 3/14;
  • 16358, 223, Murex, Megan Brooke 15-22H, Beaver Lodge, t12/06; cum 173K 3/14;
  • 16359, 30, Hess, A. Blikre 13-24H, Tioga, t4/07; cum 23K 3/14;
  • 16366, 219, MRO, Reckard 31-27H, Bailey, t3/07; cum 165K 3/14;
  • 16368, IA/304, Petro-Hunt, Strombeck 6B-2-2H, North Tioga, t4/07; cum 134K 3/14;
  • 16369, 1,553, EOG, Warberg 1-25H, Parshall, t1/07; cum 381K 3/14;
  • 16370, 918, EOG, Ehlert 1-35H, Parshall, t4/07; cum 500K, 3/14;  
  • 16372, 116, Cornerstone, Klatt 34-33H, Bailey, t3/07; cum 109K 3/14;
  • 16373, 80, Texakota, H. Borstad 34-1A, West Tioga, t1/07; cum 54K 3/14;
  • 16377, 197, XTO, Davidson 14X-34, Tioga, t5/07; cum 63K 3/14;
  • 16379, 295, XTO, Pal Properties 44X-1, Capa, t3/07; cum 350K 3/14; 
  • 16387, 376, Whiting, Ron Olson 31-1HCE, Dollar Joe, t5/10; cum 62K 3/14;
  • 16393, 125, Cornerstone, Buehner 21-2H, Bailey, t2/07; cum 58K 3/14;
  • 16394, 198, Hess, Nelson Farms 11-19H, Ross, t1/07; cum 136K 3/14;
  • 16395, 111, OXY USA, Heiser Trust 11-3H, Russian Creek, t6/07; cum 56K 3/14;
  • 16400, 149, Hess, Iverson 14-23H, Beaver Lodge, t6/07; cum 122K 3/14;
  • 16401, 479, Slawson, Stingray Federal 1-32H, t4/07; cum 187K 3/14;
  • 16404, 115, CLR, Pegasus 1-17H, South Meadow, t5/07; cum 45K 3/14;
  • 16405, 40, CLR, Pegasus 2-17H, South Meadow, t5/07; cum 19K 3/14;
  • 16406, 115, Hess, A. Blikre 12-01H, Tioga, t2/07; cum 61K 3/14;
  • 16407, 191, Legacy Reserves, Ash Coulee 2-2H, Ash Coulee, t7/08; cum 47K 3/14;
  • 16411, 53, CLR, Krush 1-5H, Saddle Butte, t3/0; cum 1K 3/14;
  • 16412, 488, XTO, Kulish 24-2H, Murphy Creek, t2/0; cum 169K 3/14;
  • 16413, 171, Whiting, Sheldon 34-20H, Dollar Joe, t3/07; cum 118K 3/14;
  • 16415, 175, Murex, Lana Kristy 29-32H, Midway, t2/07; cum 145K 3/14;
  • 16422, 293, MRO, Kukla 34-34H, Murphy Creek, t12/07; cum 106K 3/14;
  • 16424, 700, Petro-Hunt, USA 11B-2-2H, Charlson, t7/07; cum 485K 3/14;
  • 16425, 209, XTO, Schwindt 31-10H, Murphy Creek, t5/07; cum 88K 3/14;
  • 16432, 297, Hess, H. Davidson 35-26H, Beaver Lodge, t5/07; cum 220K, 3/14;
  • 16433, 244, Hess, Lars Rothie 32-29H, Blue Buttes, t6/07; cum 160K, 3/14;
  • 16434, 461, Hess, H. Davidson 2-11H, Beaver Lodge, t7/07; cum 263K 3/14;
  • 16438, 75, CLR, Malkowski 1-35H, Whitetail, t9/07; cum 27K 3/14;
  • 16439, 373, MRO, Hecker 21-5H, Murphy Creek, t9/07; cum 108K 3/14;
  • 16440, 177, Hess, E. Brudick 20-17H, Capa, t5/07; cum 197K 3/14;
  • 16441, 244, Hess, E. Burdick 29-32H, Capa, t5/07; cum 197K 3/14;
  • 16443, 60, CLR, Wenstad 15-162-97H, Bluffton, t4/07; cum 25K 3/14;
  • 16447, 78, XTO, Thompson 21-8H, Whitetail, t4/07; cum 25K 3/14;
  • 16448, 530, Whiting, Buckhorn Ranch 31-16H, Elkhorn Ranch, t12/08; cum 100K3/14;
  • 16451, 225, MRO, Gerald Tuhy 21-4H, Murphy Creek, t11/07; cum 60K 3/14;
  • 16452, 265, Petro-Hunt, USA 14D-4-1H, Charlson, t10/07; cum 160K 3/14;
  • 16457, 922, EOG, C & B 1-31H, Parshall, t5/07; cum 419K 3/14;
  • 16458, 127, Baytex, Willard Johnson Trsut 24B-2-1H, Burg, t6/07; cum 25K 3/14;
  • 16459, 457, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 192K 3/14; 
  • 16460, 538, CLR, Brandvik 14-24H, Corral Creek, t3/07; cum 180K 3/14;
  • 16461, 1,487, EOG, Patten 1-02H, Parshall, t3/07; cum 450K 3/14; 
  • 16463, IA/1,081, Whiting, Perry State 11-25H, Sanish, t5/07; cum 384K 3/14;
  • 16467, 783, EOG, Geving 1-09H, Parshall, t8/07; cum 315K 3/14; 
  • 16469, 1,267, EOG, Herbert 1-26H, Parshall, t12/07; cum 502K 3/14;
  • 16470, 191, XTO, Harney 41X-2, Capa, t4/07; cum 68K 3/14;
  • 16472, 145, Murex, Kristin Denise 16-21H, West Bank, t3/07; cum 43K 3/14
  • 16473, 351, BR, State veeder 41-36H, Blue Buttes, t4/07; cum 120K 3/14;
  • 16478, 84, CLR, Filkowski 1-1H, Fairfield, t4/07; cum 66K 3/14;
  • 16479, 171, CLR, Cahle 1-2H, St Demetrius, t7/07; 61K 3/14;
  • 16480, 308, Hess, H. Rud 24-25H, Capa, t6/07; cum 239K 3/14;
  • 16483, 870, EOG, Zacher 1-24H, Parshall, t6/07; cum 472K 3/14;
  • 16484, 1,670, EOG, Wenco 1-30H, Parshall, t9/07; cum 433K 3/14;
  • 16485, 171, EOG, Hovda 1-08H, Parshall, t9/08; cum 372K 3/14;
  • 16486, 824, EOG, Detienne 1097H, Parshall, t4/08; cum 337K 3/14;
  • 16488, 249, Slawson, Maverick Federal 1-14, Mondak, t8/07; cum 124K 3/14;
  • 16490, 411, XTO, Farm 44X-7, Hofflund, t6/07; cum 146K 3/14;
  • 16492, 188, Hess, Sivertson 20-19H, Blue Buttes, t9/07; cum 152K 3/14;
  • 16495, 309, Murex, Sheldon Mark 27-34H, Tioga, t9/08; cum 183K 3/14;
  • 16497, 1,675, EOG, Hoff 1-10H, Parshall, t6/07; cum 417K 3/14;
  • 16498, 238, Hess, Ole Anderson 30-31H, Blue Buttes, t6/07; cum 209K 3/14;
  • 16505: last permit issued in 2006, and it was not for a Bakken well

Thar She Is! A Million-Bbl Bakken Well In This Boom

I"ve been waiting a year to post this (on May 8, 2014, I posted that it must have passed the one-million-bbl milestone in early April): a Bakken well in the current Bakken boom just went over the one-million-bbl milestone:
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; F; cum 1.02 million bbls 3/14; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing;
Note that NDIC reports that this well is still flowing on its own, not on a pump, and there is nothing in the well file to indicate otherwise, unless it's "buried" and I missed it.

Back on August 24, 2013, I posted a production update. Not much has changed. It is still producing 24,000 bbls of oil/month.

Back on November 19, 2012, another post on this incredible field.

The well has been on-line for about 3.5 years. Bakken wells are predicted to produce for 39 years. 

Fast Food Restaurant Expansion -- Ain't Happenin' With Minimum Wages Rising To $15/Hour

See this earlier post on same subject, Connecticut's experience.

I do a lot of long distance driving; I love fast-food restaurants. I have also spent a lot of time in California (and go back twice/year). One of the first fast-food restaurants I first saw when I moved to Los Angeles 30 or 40 years ago was Carl's Jr. I always wondered why I never saw new ones going up in southern California. I assume "In 'N Out" was part of the reason, but so is the story being reported by CNBC below.

CNBC is reporting via Yahoo!Finance is reporting:
CKE Restaurants' roots began in California roughly seven decades ago, but you won't see the parent company of Carl's Jr. and Hardee's expanding there much anymore.

What's causing what company CEO Andy Puzder describes as "very little growth" in the state?
In part it's because "the minimum wage is so high so it's harder to come up with profitable business models," Puzder said in an interview. The state's minimum wage is set to rise to $9 in July, making it among the nation's highest, and $10 by January 2016.
That's as far as I've read ... so far. Let's see if the 800-pound gorilla in the room is mentioned?

Yup, there it is, a bit farther down:
ObamaCare regulations, which impact businesses with 50 or more workers more than those with fewer employees, are also affecting CKE's franchise growth.
"I actually have franchisees...who've either gotten out of the business or refused to build two restaurants because with one restaurant you have less than 50 employees," he said. "With two, you have more than 50."
Instead, some cautious franchisees are considering alternatives to expanding their businesses.
Apparently at least one group of Chicago aldermen want to minimize entry-level jobs and even minimize new fast-food outlets by proposing a $15/hour minimum wage.  But Seattle appears to be beating Chicago to its own no-growth program; a Seattle city council committee voted for a $15/hour minimum wage and now the entire city council will decide.

Random Look At Bakken Activity -- About Four Miles North Of Williston, Missouri Ridge And Tyrone Oil Fields; One 3-Payzone Well ApproachingThe 1-Million Bbl Milestone


May 31, 2014: Slide #2 of 30 (IMG_1606), of Vern Whitten's most recent set of oil patch photographs: I wonder if it isn't an Oasis 5-well pad sited in Missouri Ridge, 5-155-101? That would be quite a coincidence because I just posted a fairly in-depth look at this pad yesterday without connecting the pad to the photographs.
Original Post

Note: there might be typographical errors.

With Williston expanding in size, this interesting area of the Bakken is only about four miles from the northwest corner of present-day Williston, in Missouri Ridge oil field. There is an interesting well in this field:
Three payzone well, total production, ~ 940K bbls; one formation still producing; the Stonewall continues to produce about 1,000 bbls of oil/month.
  • 6757, 768, Encore, Clark 1, Missouri Ridge, Red River; t8/79; cum 588K; PNA;
  • 6757, 262, Encore, Clark 1, Missouri Ridge, Stonewall; AL; t8/79; cum 352K 4/14;
  • 6757, 3, Encore, Clark 1, Missouri Ridge, Birdbear; t11/01; cum 329; PNA;
There are also three active rigs in this immediate area. In that section, there will soon be four multi-wells Bakken pads in addition to a single well pad (currently producing), and four active "legacy" wells.

The single-well Bakken pad:
  • 22498, 1,267, Oasis, Shepherd 55-1 12-5H, Missouri Ridge, t5/12; cum 111K 4/14;
A 2-well pad, one rig on-site:
  • 27641, drl, Oasis, Holmes 55-1 11-5 3B, Tyrone,
  • 27642, conf, Oasis, Holmes 55-1 11-5 2T, Tyrone,
A 3-well pad, one rig on-site:
  • 27817, drl, Oasis, Andre Shepherd 5501 21-5 3T, Three Forks B1, 1280-acres, Missouri Ridge,
  • 27818, drl, Oasis, Andre Shepherd 5501 21-5 4T, Three Forks B1, 1280-acres, Missouri Ridge,
  • 27819, drl, Oasis, Andre Shepherd 5501 21-5 5T, Three Forks B1, 1280-acres, Missouri Ridge,
A 5-well pad, one rig on-site:
  • 28045, conf, Oasis, Holmes 5501 14-5 6T, Three Forks B1, 1280-acres, Tyrone,
  • 28046, conf, Oasis, Holmes Harbour 5501 14-5 2B, Bakken, 2560-acres, Tyrone,
  • 28047, drl, Oasis, Andre 5501 14-5 3B, Bakken, 1280-acres, Missouri Ridge,
  • 28048, drl, Oasis, Harbour 5501 14-5 2T, Three Forks B1, 1280-acres, Missouri Ridge,
  • 28051, conf, Oasis, Shepherd Andre 5501 14-5 4B, Bakken, 2560-acres, Missouri Ridge,
A 4-well pad:
  • 27718, loc, Oasis, Shepherd 5501 12-5 3B, Bakken, 1280-acres, Missouri Ridge,
  • 27719, drl, Oasis, Shepherd 5501 12-5 2B, Bakken, 1280-acres, Missouri Ridge,
  • 27729, drl, Oasis, Holmes 5501 12-5 5T, Three Forks B1, 1280-acres, Tyrone,
  • 27730, drl, Oasis, Holmes 5501 12-5 4B, Bakken 1280-acres, Tyrone, 
Note: in the graphic below, the "dots" without a horizontal emanating from them are all vertical wells; they are all still active wells, mostly Madison or multi-payzone wells. #6757 was drilled in 1979, and has been pumping oil for about 35 years. As noted above, it continues to produce about 1,000 bbls of oil / month, better than some Bakken wells.

New Roy Orbison CD/DVD Available; Gasoline Demand Surges; Chicago PMI Surges To Highest Level Since Last October; AAPL, SLB, SRE At New Highs; Dow, S&P Hit New Record; War-On-Coal Working -- Longest Streak Without Major Hurricane

Music: it looks like the new Roy Orbison "Mystery Girl Deluxe (CD/DVD) is available, having been released May 19, 2014. Initial Amazon customer reviews suggest it should be a good album.

Economy: in other, less important news:
  • Chicago Business Barometer up 2.5 points to 65.5 in May
  • barometer increases to highest level since October 
  • backlogs surge above 60, new orders highest since October 
  • The Chicago Business Barometer increased to 65.5 in May from 63.0 in April, the highest since October, as demand strengthened and the economy continued to recover from a weather related slowdown in Q1 
Gasoline demand:
I posted the narrative yesterday and my thoughts regarding this week's gasoline demand report from the Obama administration, but I forgot to include the graphic. The graphic at EIA is worth a thousand words. When you get to the site, scroll to the very bottom and look at the surge in gasoline demand. Then scroll up and look at the supporting data and graphs. It is really quite remarkable. I assume the data does not include Memorial Day Weekend which should show up in next week's report.
I put in the "blue arrow" just because it's fun to do. It's hard to miss the red line.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Trading at new 52-week highs: AAPL, DIS, DVN, ERF, LNG, NRG, SLB, SRE, TRN, WFT


Shinseki: drip. Et tu, Jay Carney?


Extreme weather. The Washington Post reports that it's been more than 3,000 days since the last major hurricane.
Such a streak, or “drought”, is unprecendented going back to 1900.  As of the start of this hurricane season, the span will be 3,142 days since the last U.S. major hurricane landfall.
The previous longest span is about 2½ years shorter!  While this is a relief for coastal residents and businesses, it inevitably increases complacency.  The longer you go between events, the less likely you are to fully respect the next one and heed warnings.
The president's war on coal must have worked.


The market: I see the Dow squeaked/eked out a gain at the very last hour. Quite a week. 

Active Rigs Hold Steady At 187; RBN Updates The LPG Terminals In Washington State; EOG Philosophy On Re-Fracking

Re-fracking/re-entering: Seeking Alpha has a long transcript of EOG's recent investors' presentation. There was a particularly interesting question and answer:
Question: Is there or will there be an opportunity to go back and use new technology on old wells?
Answer, Bill Thomas - Chairman, CEO: Yes. You are asking about can you go back and maybe refrac the old wells and really the way the industry has gone, the drilling cost on the well – to just get the well initially drilled has become a very small part of the total cost of the well. And it's because the efficiency of the drilling has advanced so far that in total cost of the well, the drilling side is so small that really instead of trying to recomplete the well, its really I think more prudent to go in and just drill a new well and complete it correctly. And then you are assured of getting it technically done right and it's kind of taking a fresh start, and just trying to fix something that weren't done correctly. We think that's probably the best way to do it.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs187186214172119

RBN Energy: west coast LPG exports -- Ferndale and Longview, Washington State, terminals
Big increases in LPG (propane and butane) exports are planned for the west coast.  In March (2014) Petrogas purchased the Ferndale, WA terminal from Chevron – the only existing west coast LPG terminal.  Then in April, Sage Midstream announced that the company is developing another LPG terminal about 200 miles south at the Port of Longview, WA.    Both terminals are primarily targeting propane exports, not the export of butane that has been the mainstay of Ferndale for decades.  What is the logic behind these deals?  What needs to happen to make them work?  Today in this second part of our series on the new west coast LPG game, we take a closer look at these two facilities, including their potential supply and market destinations.
Recap on Ferndale: Ferndale is an import/export terminal in Washington State, with 750 Mbbl of above ground storage capacity in two tanks designed to hold propane or butane, two members of the natural gas liquids (NGLs) family that together are usually referenced as LPGs in the international market (liquefied petroleum gasses).  The tank is supported by rail and truck racks, a dock capable of handling VLGCs (very large gas carriers), and pipelines to two nearby refineries.  For most of its existence, Ferndale has been the backwater of NGL markets handling small volumes of seasonal refinery butane storage and occasional exports of butane to Latin America and the Asia/Pacific markets.
Now all that is changing dramatically due to the onslaught of increasing NGL production from the shale revolution.  The volume of U.S. NGL production is already more than U.S. demand, and the imbalance will continue to get larger in the coming years. 
Consequently exports have become the market of choice for U.S. NGL surpluses.  Up to now, most of the action in exports has been along the Gulf Coast , and to a lesser extent in the Northeast out of the Marcus Hook terminal.   But now attention is shifting to the West Coast – with one of the big drivers being the proximity to Asia, the region with an outlook for demand growth bigger than all the rest of the world put together.  Put that together with U.S. surpluses that can get to the West Coast via rail and you have the basic premise for the recent two deals.

At the link, RBN Energy updates the Ferndale and Longview terminals.
The Wall Street Journal

US factory job rebound is uneven, producing winners and loser. Mobile, AL (think energy) is among the winners, while towns around Syracuse, NY, (think taxes, ban on fracking) are losing jobs.

1Q14 contracted, the US now says -- and by a quite a margin -- down a remarkable 1 percent

EPA's carbon rules to spark lawsuits

Shinseki: drip, drip, ...

Measles: the number of measles cases in the US has hit a new high since the highly contagious dissease was officially declared elimined 14 years ago (think lack of security at the borders, another Obama legacy)

Ukraine civil war

Railcar shortage raises lease rates

US seeks to revise rules on gas-export projects; a bit of this was posted yesterday; looks like y initial thoughts were correct: a "mixed bag" for the roughly two dozen projects seeking federal approval

Heard on the street: buying Beats is such a departure for Apple that it raises concerns about the company's creative mojo.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Keystone XL South Leg Not Mentioned, But Probably Explains A Lot

Rigzone is reporting:
The price of oil rose above $103 / barrel Thursday on a drop in supplies at the main U.S. oil trading hub and signs of growing gasoline demand in the U.S.
Benchmark crude for July delivery rose 86 cents to close at $103.58 a barrel in New York.
Brent crude, a benchmark for international oil used by many U.S. refineries, rose 16 cents to close at $109.97 a barrel in London.
The Energy Department said Thursday that supplies fell by 1.5 million barrels last week in Cushing, Oklahoma, where U.S. benchmark crude is priced, although overall U.S. inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels.
Gasoline supplies fell by 1.8 million barrels, suggesting demand for fuel is strong and refiners will need to buy more oil to keep up.
Two data points, one not mentioned. The first data point: why supply inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels last week in Cushing, OK. Keystone XL South? As a reminder, this is how much oil is going into the Keystone XL South every week.

Second data point:  Gasoline supplies fell by 1.8 million barrels, suggesting demand for fuel is strong and refiners will need to buy more oil to keep up.  I assume this data did NOT include the 3-day Memorial Day weekend.

See for the graphic for gasoline demand at this post

Improving Bakken Wells -- May 29, 2014

I'm in the process of going through all the 2006 Bakken wells; I'll post the data later, but it is very, very obvious the Bakken wells have really improved over the years. That shouldn't be a surprise, but the degree to which the wells improved is the big story.

In EOG's most recent presentation, one sees how much the wells have improved:

EOG has 90,000 net acres in what they call their "Core Area" and another 10,000 acres in what they call their "Antelope Extension."

Eleven (11) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; 5 Of 7 Wells To DRL Status

Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:
  • 25612, 329, Triangle, Frederick James 149-101-3-10-4TFH, Antelope Creek, t1/14; cum 26K 4/14;
  • 26002, 549, Oasis, Kelter 7-6HTF, Eightmile, 4 sections, t3/14; cum 4K 4/14;
  • 26401, drl, Mountain Divide, Reistad 23-14-1H, Fortuna, no production data,
  • 26631, drl, CLR, Mack 10-2H3, Antelope, no production data,
  • 26650, drl, XTO, Jan 14X-34F, Siverston, no production data,
  • 26675, drl, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-14A-23-1H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 26877, drl, CLR, Lawrence 8-24H3, North Tioga, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs187183218172119
Eleven (11) new permits --
  • Operators: Hess (5), QEP (3), Oasis, Whiting, Enduro
  • Fields: Hawkeye (McKenzie), Grail (McKenzie), Enget Lake (Mountrail), Sanish (Mountrail), Newburg (Bottineau)
    Comments: Enget Lake (see below)
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Enget Lake: it's rare to see permits in Enget Lake oil field. From the dockets:
  • Case 21850, Oasis, Enget Lake-Bakken, 16 wells on some or all of the 1280-acre units, Mountrail,
  • Case 21038: Oasis, Enget Lake-Bakken, 15 wells on some or all of the 1280-acre units; Mountrail
Five (5) CLR permits were renewed: Chandler 1-9H, Flint Chips 2 and 3; and, Dennis 2 and 3.

One (1) producing well completed:
  • 26078, 842, OXY USA Evelyn Stroh 2-17-20H-143-96, Fayette, t5/14; cum --