Sunday, January 18, 2026

Early Morning Note From A Reader -- January 18, 2026.

Locator: 49747SOMALIFRAUD. 

The dots connect.

Link here. 

One still needs to ask how Walz came out of obscurity -- deus ex machina -- to become the vice presidential nominee for the Democratic Party. Politics runs on money. My hunch: the dots connect. The Democrats certainly didn't need Walz to take Minnesota; the Dems had Minnesota locked up. But there you have it -- an assistant football coach -- perhaps a man that knew too much -- was the right choice for the Democrats. Lots of dots to connect.  

It's been going on since at least 2018, follow the thread -- it's been going on for 25 years. 

2018: A former assistant football coach was first elected governor of Minnesota in 2018. Has decided not to run for third term. 

Link here. 

From November 25, 2000:

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The Recipe Page -- Cornish Hens -- January 16, 2026

Locator: 49746CORNISH. 
Locator: 46434RECIPES.

Yesterday; Cornish hen, creamer potatoes. Less than 15 minutes prep time -- I used two different Penzeys spices -- one for each hen. Homemade gravy, sort of -- McCormick Turkey gravy with drippings from the Cornish hens.

As noted: less than 15 minutes prep time: do that 15 minutes before game time and then 1 1/2 hour later enjoying Cornish hen at halftime.  

Adapted from a post many years ago.  

Several years ago, I could get two Cornish hens for $5.99 or $6.99 at Walmart. About a month ago, Cornish hens were priced at $10.99 / $11.00 at Walmart. Regardless, I can get four meals from two Cornish hens. Somewhat less expensive than the $70 my wife and I spent on ramen last week at the best ramen restaurant in the DFW area.  

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Cornish Hen

If I am dining alone, my preferred dish: Cornish hen. 

Preparation: ten minutes, at most.

  • Cornish hen baked on a bed of rosemary and thyme; always trussed;
  • first time, tonight, I added a slice of thick-cut, high-quality bacon -- just one slice -- on the bed of rosemary/thyme;
  • brushed with oil; rub of Weber's "Kickin' Chicken," small amount of pepper; smaller amount of salt;
  • basted with butter during cooking
  • one Cornish hen: 60 minutes uncovered; an additional 15 minutes covered; at 350°F

Note: if you like crispy skin, and I do, so I will do this differently next time, don't baste with butter. 

Before: 

After:

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More And More -- It Looks Like This Might Be Coming To A Head -- January 18, 2026

Locator: 49746USMACRO. 

AI prompt: would the US be better off without NATO?

One word: leverage. 

If there's any "truth" to this or if the story has legs, the tipping point was Venezuela / Maduro.

Link here. 

AI prompt: entangling alliances.  

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Empire Manufacturing Index -- Liz Ann Sonders-- January 18, 2026

Locator: 49745USECONOMY. 

Link here. 


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Big Banks: Turning The AI Buildout Into A Profit Machine -- From Axios This Past Week Via Yahoo -- January 18, 2026

Locator: 49744INVESTING. 

NOT MENTIONED BELOW: BlackRock! See this post.

From Axios this past week. 

The AI buildout is turning into a profit engine for the big banks, as the tech giants tap Wall Street to finance enormous capital spending and AI-fueled stock gains lift trading revenues.

Why it matters: Banks are cashing in on the AI boom across debt underwriting, advisory and trading — while largely distancing themselves from concerns that the rally could be forming a bubble.

State of play: Morgan Stanley's debt underwriting revenue jumped to $785 million in the fourth quarter, up 93% from a year ago — the biggest increase on Wall Street.

  • Tech companies are borrowing aggressively to fund AI infrastructure, especially data centers, with spending hitting over $700 billion in 2025.
  • Morgan Stanley arranged tens of billions of dollars in AI-related debt in the fourth quarter alone, including more than $27 billion tied to Meta's Hyperion data center in Louisiana, as part of Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick's push deeper into debt capital markets.
  • The broader AI boom in the stock market is also helping financial institutions: Trading revenue at Goldman Sachs hit a record high, and rose 10% at Bank of America from the prior year.
  • AI adoption is another potential profit boom for the major banks: JPMorgan Chase pinned some of its expense increases for the quarter on its tech investments.

What they're saying: Underwriting tech debt is an opportunity, "but also comes with risks," Mac Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, tells Axios.

  • Still, Morgan Stanley is "well positioned to benefit from" the "AI infrastructure productivity wave," Sykes notes, adding that the firm's risk appetite is disciplined and well diversified when it comes to its loan books.

Between the lines: Remember, the circular funding problem means if these companies are taking out debt to pay each other, that helps each other's earnings —as well as their lenders.

  • For now, more debt = more spending = more earnings, and future bubble questions regarding this are not acceptable in rooms with Wall Street strategists!

Yes, but: It's not just AI fueling gains for the banks.

  • Financial conditions are loose, and the Trump administration's deregulation stance has allowed for an increase in capital markets activity.
  • Investors like Sykes expect more to come amid what could be a $3 trillion IPO boom in 2026, with giants like SpaceX and OpenAI potentially going public.

What we're watching: Whether AI-driven capex remains strong enough to sustain debt issuance and stock market gains in 2026.

  • That could have implications far beyond the tech sector.

 

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What Interests Me This Weekend -- January 18, 2026

Locator: 49743INVESTING. 

Link here. 

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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 18, 2026

Locator: 49742WELLS. 

  • 42035, conf, Slawson, Rebel Federal 6-32-17TFH, Big Bend, npd, 
  • 40868, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-2, Wheelock, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251570025655
10-20251479924923
9-20251383443109
8-20253283946807
7-202533693604
  • 41385, conf, Hess, GN-Stundal-158-97-1819H-4, New Home, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251792435617
10-20251636720791
9-20251576020696
8-20252293928792
7-202518977218
  • 41309, conf, BR, Sandie 4A MBH, Elidah, npd, 
  • 39803, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4C, Twin Valley, npd, 
  • 41384, conf, Hess, GN-Stundal-158-97-1819H-3, New Home, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251465022798
10-202550897585
9-20251403518381
8-20251906726044
7-202516543866
  • 41351, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-4, Wheelock, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251696228412
10-20251343724734
9-2025824227756
8-20252514040064
7-202546496514
  • 41308, conf, BR, Sandie 3A MBH, Elidah, npd, 
  • 40079, conf, Devon, Cuda 14-26F 5H, Round Prairie, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252190120742
10-20253231824842
9-20253276625077
8-20251973112510
7-202541241904
  • 40078, conf, Devon, Cuda 15-27F 4H, Round Prairie, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252832428363
10-20253627730722
9-20252949021758
8-20252650116872
7-2025161509206
  • 39802, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4B, Twin Valley, npd, 
  • 36616, conf, BR, Sandie 2C-MBH, Elidah, npd, 
  • 41292, conf, Hess, GO-Morgan-156-97-1806H-3, Dollar Joe, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252048843890
10-20252205944632
9-20252773348766
8-202547507113439
7-20251428446871
  • 41255, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 5BX, Glass Bluff, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251310211604
10-20251690014214
9-20252057417083
8-20252038815592
7-202586694407
  • 41254, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 4B, Glass Bluff, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251434613255
10-20251775215160
9-20252018116527
8-20251766813416
7-202569823685
  • 41253, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 3B, Glass Bluff, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251224210705
10-20251535912716
9-20251696514209
8-20251888114574
7-202566773397
  • 41061, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 2B, Glass Bluff, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20251293611825
10-20251564113976
9-20251802115172
8-20251555211845
7-202563953222
  • 41856, conf, CLR, Schilke 3-19H, Upland, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252990110376
10-20252660819830
9-20252309924844
  • 40247, conf, Hunt Oil, Palermo MCNIC 156-90-22-34H 4, Ross, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2025177745006
10-2025125173701
9-2025194834528
8-2025216415437
7-2025104463274

40077, conf, Devon Energy, Cuda 15-27F 3H, Round Prairie, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20252306322347
10-20252586023321
9-20253899233502
8-20252730617961
7-20252589711755
  • 41350, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Patten 2-27-22H, Parshall, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2025140333432
10-2025148793666
9-2025184873817
8-2025143243477
7-20259046993
  • 36614, conf, BR, Sandi 2B UTFH, Elidah, npd, 
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Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 18, 2026

Locator: 49741WELLS. 

Wednesday, January 28, 2026: 46 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year,
42035, conf, Slawson, Rebel Federal 6-32-17TFH, 
40868, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-2, 

Tuesday, January 27, 2026: 44 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 44 for the year,
None.

Monday, January 26, 2026: 44 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 44 for the year,
41385, conf, Hess, GN-Stundal-158-97-1819H-4, 
41309, conf, BR, Sandie 4A MBH, 
39803, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4C, 

Sunday, January 25, 2026: 41 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 41 for the year,
41384, conf, Hess, GN-Stundal-158-97-1819H-3, 
41351, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-4, 

Saturday, January 24, 2026: 39 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 39 for the year,
41308, conf, BR, Sandie 3A MBH, 
40079, conf, Devon, Cuda 14-26F 5H,

Friday, January 23, 2026: 37 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 37 for the year,
40078, conf, Devon, Cuda 15-27F 4H, 
39802, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4B, 
36616, conf, BR, Sandie 2C-MBH, 

Thursday, January 22, 2026: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 34 for the year, 
None.

Wednesday, January 21, 2026: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 34 for the year,
41292, conf, Hess, GO-Morgan-156-97-1806H-3, 

Tuesday, January 20, 2026: 33 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year,
41255, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 5BX, 
41254, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 4B, 
41253, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 3B, 
41061, conf, Oasis, Erickson 5203 14-25 2B, 

Monday, January 19, 2026: 29 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 29 for the year,
41856, conf, CLR, Schilke 3-19H, 

Sunday, January 18, 2026: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 28 for the year, 
40247, conf, Hunt Oil, Palermo MCNIC 156-90-22-34H 4, 
40077, conf, Devon Energy, Cuda 15-27F 3H, 

Saturday, January 17, 2026: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 26 for the year, 
41350, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Patten 2-27-22H, 
36614, conf, BR, Sandi 2B UTFH, 

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