Thursday, December 1, 2016

Harvard's Best And Brightest; Suitable For Framing -- December 1, 2016


December 2, 2016: Dallas Cowboys - Minnesota Vikings put up huge Thursday Night Football numbers last night. It was a great game. In the last 25 seconds the Vikings almost put the game into overtime, but a sloppy pass prevented the two-point after TD score; a face mask infraction was missed by the officials.
  • second-best overnight rating for TNF
  • 21.8 million viewers and a 12.8 household rating; in earlier results, a 14.1 household rating in Mielsen's metered market overnights
  • rest of TNF this season: averaging 8.8 household rating
Original Post
It's safe to go back in.

Maybe. Maybe not. I'm talking about The New Yorker magazine. I canceled my subscription back in August or September. The magazine had become a mouthpiece for Hillary. I continued to "read" it on a weekly basis at the local library. In the two months leading up to the election the magazine had pretty much been all about Hillary and nothing else. There was even one issue in which every cartoon was a "negative" cartoon about Trump. I've become so irritated with the magazine, I don't even like Emily Dickinson any more, who seems to appear regularly in the magazine.

So, let's see where the magazine is this week, the December 5, 2016, issue.

First, the letters to the editor. There were four letters; all pretty long. Every one was on the election. Nothing else. I assume that is because there's been nothing else in The New Yorker except articles on the election for the past several months.
  • letter #1, from a reader who writes, "the lesson I learned from Russia, where I come from" and then goes on to to advise us how to take on "an authoritative government." Yes, vote Obama out of office. That was easy.
  • letter #2, from a reader how writes, "the election... a crippling sense of helplessness and horror." Cupcake.
  • letter #3, from a reader who writes this trope which he/she cut and paste from the Democratic play book, "Clinton who won the popular vote by more than 1.7 million votes (and that number continues to grow as the remaining ballots are tallied)." I guess her vote didn't count. Nor will those who voted in Pennsylvania or Michigan if they don't get the recount done by December 12th.
  • letter #4, from a reader who writes, "I don't think Trump had any intention of actually winning" -- another trope taken from the Democratic play book. Anyone who suggests Trump competes without any intention of actually winning is a .... nut; and, for someone who had no intention of "actually winning," he sure pivoted quickly, naming some incredibly great picks for his cabinet.
Now, "Talk of the Town." Whereas the lead essay in the past 35 issues of "The Talk of the Town" was all about Hillary, the lead essay this time is all about Trump. Hillary's name is mentioned once, just once. Amazing. Not even a month out, and The New Yorker has already moved on, unlike its readers. Cupcakes.

But, no, I won't be "renewing" a subscription to The New Yorker any time soon. It may be fun to watch the transition but not that much fun.

Magic Wand

This reminds me of the question that Governor Dukakis was asked in his campaign in which his answer probably cost him the election.

I don't know what magic wand the president-elect had, but Trump kept a thousand Carrier jobs in Indianapolis and kept one plant from moving to Mexico just as he promised.

The Drudge Report
Suitable For Framing


CNN staff joking about President-elect Trump's crashing. Hmmmm. Link here. It will go viral on YouTube.

Whiting's P Evitt Wells -- December 1, 2016


March 8, 2018: random update of an old P Evitt well

August 30, 2017: production numbers below have been updated.

March 16, 2017: production numbers below have been updated.

Original Post

Breaking news: Trump to meet with Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) -- North Dakota on Friday. No link. Story everywhere.

Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3965187191182

One well coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 32378, 2,540, XTO, Werre Trust 21X-3B, Bear Creek, 60 stages; 17.9 million lbs, t6/18; cum 321K 10/19; see this post;
One new permit:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Truax (Williams)
  • Comment:
Another day with no producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

No permits canceled; no permits renewed.  

The New Whiting Permit In Truax Oil Field: 
Evitt 14-12-4TFHX

The Evitt / P Evitt Wells
Note: 4/17 -- noted that the SI/NC wells were now conf.

31369, dry/PNC, Whiting, Evitt 14-12-4TFH, Truax,
33208, 1,244, Whting, Evitt 14-124TFHX, Truax, 20K first month; t6/17; cum 168K 2/20;
31368, 1,808, Whiting, Evitt 14-12H, Truax, 30K first month; t6/17; cum 273K 2/20;
31370, 1,107, Whiting, Evitt 14-12TFH, Truax, 15K first month; t6/17; cum 208K 2/20;
20543, 1,031, Whiting, Evitt 16-12H, Truax, t8/11; cum 282K 2/20; back on line after being off line 2/17 - 6/17;
31834, 1,267, Whiting, Evitt 34-12-2H, Truax, 13K first month; t6/17; cum 211K 2/20;
31836, 1,827, Whiting, Evitt 34-12H, Truax, 32K first month; t6/17; cum 307K 2/20;
31835, 1,582, Whiting, Evitt 34-12TFH, Traux, 22K first month; t6/17; cum 205K 2/20;
25511, 1,826, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-13-12-1-3H3, t11/13; cum 213K 2/20; huge bump after coming back on-line;
25564, 1,985, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-13-12-19-14H, t11/13; cum 350K 2/20;
25563, 2,140, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-13-12-24-14H3M, t11/13; cum 251K 2/20;
25512, 2,154, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-13-12-2-4H, t11/13; cum 298K 2/20;
25513, 1,810, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-15-12-1-2H3M, t11/13; cum 176K 5/19; intermittent production since 5/19; 9/19; remains off line 2/20;
25581, 2,667, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-15-12-9-16H, t11/13; cum 356K 1/20; off line 1/20; remains off line 2/20;
25514, 2,011, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-15-12-2-2H, t11/13; cum 236K 9/19; off line 10/19; remains off line 2/20;
25582, 2,249, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-15-12-24-15H3, t11/13; cum 295K 2/20; see full production profile here;

Editorial Shift -- December 1, 2016

Disclaimer: I don't know yet, but it's possible there will be an editorial shift with regard to the MDW blog.

I have long forgotten the facts, but it's my feeling that I was generally optimistic when Barack Obama won in 2008, beating John McCain. I distinctly remember thinking that McCain was incredibly lackluster in his campaigning. Had I voted, I would have voted for McCain, but I was not emotionally involved. I do recall thinking that it was quite remarkable that the US had elected its first African-American president, and had done so by a wide margin. I don't remember when I first started having second thoughts, but I do remember that the Harvard professor-law enforcement-beer summit was not a positive omen. That omen preceded Tyrone, another bad omen. And then, of course, it culminated in #BlackLivesMatter.

From 2005 to 2007, I was generally depressed. Actually I was generally depressed between 2002 and 2007 but my frequent trips to Yorkshire, England, between 2002 and 2004 helped immensely. But after 2004, I lost all interest in my work.

The two granddaughters made all the difference in the world. [Sophia, the third granddaughter and the most recent, showed up in 2014 or thereabouts.]

Somewhere after his first two years in office, and certainly by the time of his re-election, I had become quite unhappy with President Obama. I did not see much good news, and if there was any good news, it seemed I found a cynical component to offset any good component. There was one exception: I was inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, and when there was bad news about the Bakken or the oil and gas sector in general, I put on my oily-stained glasses before reading.

With the election of Donald Trump that has all changed. Or at least it feels like it has all changed. Right after the election, US consumer confidence jumped to a 9-year high; the stock market rallied; and, "Morning Joe" became more tolerable. In other words, I was not the only one who felt a great weight of despair had been lifted off my emotional shoulders.

If that mood continues, it is very likely that an editorial shift with regard to the MDW blog will occur. I don't know if that will happen, but I 'm just thinking out loud.

As one example, the DAPL issue. Before the election, I would go through the seven stages of grief every time I saw it mentioned. I ignored it the best I could. Now that Trump has won, I actually google DAPL looking for any updates I can find. I can't wait to read about it. I don't even care how it turns out; I just know that someone in Washington cares.

Another example: the three-state recount. Initially I was upset, but now I'm enjoying it. I even have a page devoted to it. Hillary has aligned herself with a nut and that will make it easier for folks to move on.

Another example: jobs. I will still remain cynical about the weekly jobs numbers but I am eager to see how the reporting changes after Trump gets sworn in.

And finally, all the articles about all the college kids crying over the election no longer bother me any more either. Cupcakes. 

The Megyn Poll; Light-Truck Demand Surges -- December 1, 2016

New poll at sidebar at the right.

Later: I just noticed -- I am so anti-CNN that the network is not even on my radar scope. I completely forgot about CNN. Having said that, I can't imagine Megyn jumping to CNN but I could be wrong -- money is a powerful persuader.

Later: wow! Now I see The Drudge Report has put up a poll, asking the same question, Megyn? CNN or Fox News.

The Devil Made Me Do It

From adweek:
CNN was the most-watched network, broadcast or cable, among adults 25-54 on election night, November 8, 2016. 
And this is why:


Some of the waste in the system ... like a pacemaker for a 99-year-old woman who still has a zest for life.


It is incredibly refreshing to have a president speak to America directly without:
  • mainstream media filtering what he has to say
  • having it word-smithed by his staff before tweeting it 
I look forward to watching MSNBC "Morning Joe" every morning just to see what the president-elect might have tweeted overnight and how the press is responding to it.

November Auto Sales

Headline: GM, Ford, Toyota post strong November auto sales.
  • GM: sales rose 10%; average sale - $36,000 (about $4,000 higher than the industry average)
  • Toyota: narrowly outsold fold (by just 100 vehicles)
  • Ford: sales rose 5%; retail sales up 10% but fleet sales down 9%
  • Toyota: sales rose 4%
  • "Usually, Ford is #2 in sales; Toyota, #3."
  • Nissan: beat expectations; sales rose 7.5%
  • Chrysler: yet to report; many forecasting as much as a 14% drop 
Light-truck demand surges -- Bloomberg:
Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., and most other major automakers beat analysts’ estimates for U.S. sales on demand for pickups and sport utility vehicles, boosted by holiday-season dealmaking. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, with a rare stumble in Jeep sales, posted a decline that was bigger than predicted.
Ford shares rose the most in four years after the company reported a 5.1 percent sales increase that included the highest November deliveries for F-Series trucks since 2001, far exceeding the average estimate. GM’s light-vehicle sales gained 10 percent, aided by incentives topping $10,000 on some Silverado pickups and Suburban SUVs. Sales also topped forecasts at Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co.
US Gasoline Demand

Continues to decline; back to 2015 levels.

The Amazon Page

Over at Forbes: worried about a monopoly. The secondary headlines suggest the article will talk about all of Amazon's interests. A quick scan of the article suggested only the on-line retail division of Amazon was discussed. But I could be wrong.

It's amazing what folks call monopolies these days. First of all, Amazon sells very few products of its own. One can probably count the number of Amazon-branded products on two hands. It does the same thing as: Wal-Mart, Target, JCPenney, Albertsons, Barnes and Nobel, Apple, and hundreds of other companies -- it's a retailer. It does retail very, very well. But I would have trouble calling it a monopoly. A monopoly suggests to me a company that has no competition. I can go a hundred different places if I want to buy something on-line.

Interestingly, if I want cable internet, I have one choice: Time Warner. Possibly ATT now reaches into our neighborhood. When we moved in, ATT did not reach our apartment complex. Satellite is available but I don't want satellite and there's no place for a dish to be placed except on someone else's roof or patio. Whatever.

Oh, which reminds me, back in the good ol' days, there was only one computer operating system: WINTEL. Fortunately Apple came along before the government started calling Microsoft a monopoly.

The Market

This is simply amazing.

The Dow 30 is hitting new records today. I assume the shorts -- especially in the oil and gas sector -- are really getting squeezed. 

The last half of November, 2016, will forever be known as the Trump rally. The first week in December, 2016, will be forever known as the Saudi rally. I suppose sometime between now and then we will see the Santa Claus rally and it SantaTrumpsSaudi it's going to be quite a rally. Hang on.

Oil: $45 before the OPEC meeting, and trending down. Today, it's up over $52.

Dow 30,
  • new highs: 210 -- including -- Aetna, Apache, BHI, CVX, CLR, Devon Energy, EOG, ERF, ONEOK, Oasis, SLB, Statoil, WPX
  • new lows: 83
The Political Page

It's truly amazing. The Democrats have just taken the worst shellacking possible over the past eight years, losing the House, losing the Senate, losing the presidency, losing governorships and legislative houses across the country, and now they are considering electing a former Nation of Islam / Farrakhan supporter as their DNC chairperson.

If the GOP even considered a former member of the KKK to be dog catcher it would be the end of the GOP as we know it.

Wow: to the Democrats have at it.

First Time Unemployment Claims "Jump" To Highest Level In Five Months -- December 1, 2016

First time unemployment claims:
  • "jump" to highest level in five months;
  • "rose more than expected" -- wow, haven't we heard that before (and before and before and before); but,
  • the underlying trend remained consistent with a strengthening labor market (the robotic reporter "said")
The numbers:
  • increased 17,000 to seasonally adjusted 268,000
  • forecast: rising to 253,000 -- so only off by about 15,000
  • but still below the 300,000 threshold -- longest run since 1970
  • four-week moving average edged up 500 to 251,000

North Dakota Weather Improving -- December 1, 2016

First things first: the Norwegian beat the Russian in the first tie-breaker at the 2016 World Chess Championship. 

ND weather: improving.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3965187191182

RBN Energy: the US becomes a net natural gas exporter for the first time.


Warning. Before proceeding, consider the source. Jim Cramer over at CNBC explains how OPEC may have just engineered the short-squeeze of a lifetime. One data point from the link, with only slight hyperbole:
The Saudis upped their production to about 11 million barrels a day, from 10 million, so they are simply going back to where they were last year
If the "11 million" is in the ballpark, it takes me back to an earlier post. Over the past few years, Saudi has more-than-tripled the number of active rigs -- according to reliable sources -- and yet their overall crude oil production has remained relatively flat -- according to reliable sources. Meanwhile, US shale maintained production to a great extent despite cutting the number of rigs by a huge percent. In North Dakota active rigs have gone from 200 to 40 and production is still higher than it was during the early boom when there were 200 rigs.

A bit of hyperbole: over at Rigzone, "Oil Soars Off OPEC Agreement To Cut Production." WTI went from around $45 (though it was trending down) went to about $49 after the announcement. We were near $49 even before the deal a few weeks ago. $45 to $49 is hardly "soaring" in my view.

Indonesia Out Again

Out Again: apparently Indonesia was "removed" from OPEC. Yes, there it is. Took a few minutes to find. Over at Rigzone, "Net Oil Importer Indonesia Leaves OPEC, Again." It appears that Indonesia was asked to leave when it could not accept recommended oil production cuts. Here we go:
Indonesia has suspended its membership of OPEC, less than a year after rejoining the cartel, as the net oil importer said it could not agree to the group's production cuts.
The decision came as the cartel agreed its first oil output cut since 2008 in a bid to tackle overcapacity and prop up prices.
The suspension could be a setback for Indonesia, OPEC's only East Asian member, which had hoped to benefit from being closer to OPEC countries when it reactivated its membership at the start of the year.
OPEC had proposed Indonesia cut oil production by about 37,000 barrels per day (bpd), or about 5 percent of its output, which would dent the already slipping oil rent in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan, who attended the Vienna meeting, said the only reduction Indonesia could accept was a cut of 5,000 bpd, which had been approved in the country's 2017 budget.
Interesting. Had Saudi Arabia agreed to leave OPEC yesterday, OPEC could say it removed 11 million bopd from global supply.