No New Permits; Twelve Permits Renewed; Two Permits Canceled -- November 12, 2021

Active rigs:

$80.79	11/12/2021	11/12/2020	11/12/2019	11/12/2018	11/12/2017
Active Rigs	32	15	54	66	52

No new permits.

Twelve permits renewed:

• MRO (5): an Elizabeth USA permit, a Felix USA permit, both in Dunn County; a Merwin USA permit, a Foote USA permit, and an Avallon USA permit, all three in McLean County;
• Hess (3): three EN-Davenport permits, all in Mountrail County
• BR (2); two State Docge permits in McKenzic County
• QEP (2): two MHA permits, both in Dunn County

Two permits canceled:

• Kraken: an Anna permit and a Wilder permit, both in Williams County.

Thirty-three active rigs: a quick look suggests suggests they are all oil and gas permits.

The thirty-three active rigs. Note: it looks like 32 active rigs. See CLR H&P 492.

Note: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

• Koda, 
• Cyclone-35, Stout, 37796;
• CLR (9)
  
• H&P 454, Flint Chips, 38151;
• Nabors B1, Thorp Federal, 38518;
• Nabors B6, Whitman, 38533;
• Nabors B27, Charolais South Federal, 37906 
• H&P 456, LCU Reckitt Federal, 37001;
• H&P 492, LCU Ralph, 37014, 1244 FSL 1180 FWL;
  
• H&P 492, LCU Ralph, 37015; 1244 FSL 1135 FWL
  
• Patterson 901, Rolf Federal; 38298;
• AES 4, Springfield, 38363;
  
• MRO (3)
  
• H&P 640, Hunt, Halliday, 38535,
• H&P 535, Cody, 38587;
• Nabors X-10, Phillip, 37797;
  
• Bowline, 
• T&S Drilling 2, Lee, 35625,
• Enerplus
• True 40, FB Leviathan, 35718;
• Petroshale
• Stoneham 16, Lewis Federal, 36890;
• Hess (4)
  
• Nabors X28, BW-Rolfson, 37141;
• Noble 1, EN-J Horst, 38400; 
• Nabors X27, BL-S Ramberg, 36643;
• Nabors X24, CA-E Burdick, 38004;
  
• True
• True Drilling 39, Northern State, 37495;
• Oasis (2)
  
• Nabors B 13, Soto, 38334 
• Nabors B26, Swenson Federal, 38382,
• Iron Oil, 
• Nabors B18, Antelope, 38459;
• Sinclair
• Unit 411, Grasslands Federal, 38493,
• Ovintiv, 
• H&P 516, Wisness State, 38545
• Whiting (2)
  
• Patterson 808, Kannianen, 38410
• Patterson 806, Miller, 37411
  
• Slawson
• Unit 414, Rainmaker Federal, 38454,
• Crescent Point
• Nabors B21, CPEUSC Pankake 38557;
  
• Kraken
• Nabors B22, Maddie, 38558,

Weekly Number Of Active Oil Rigs Meaningless -- June 7, 2019

Locator: 10010RIGS.

I've maintained for quite some time, probably since 2014 or thereabouts, that rig counts no longer matter (not to be taken out of context).

I was reminded of that when I saw this headline over at oilprice.

For the record:

• oil rigs fell by 11 (to 789; or a decrease of 1.375% -- big whoop!)
• natural gas rigs actually increased by 2 (to 186, or an increase of 1% -- another big whoop!)
• overall, a net decrease of 9 rigs (or a decrease of 0.9% -- not even a 1% decrease and that's the big headline -- wow -- completely missing the point)

Much more relevant: number of wells offline for operational reasons and wells drilled to depth but not completed (DUCs). I track that in the Bakken at this site. These are wells that could be brought on line within days in some cases, weeks in all cases, if necessary.

By my reckoning there are upwards of three-years worth of inactive wells/DUCs in the Bakken. Stop drilling in the Bakken today, and the state could clip along for three years just be bringing those wells into production.

And that doesn't even count the tens of thousands, perhaps twenty thousand wells that should be re-fracked in the Bakken with modern completion strategics and state-of-the-art technology.

I don't track the numbers in the Permian but my hunch is that at some point in the future, the similar data point in the Permian will be upwards of 10 times what it is in the Bakken.

I track the number of DUCs and inactive wells in North Dakota at this site.

One can also track posts on DUCs using this "search."

Related tags:

• DUCs
• Fracking backlog

Much more relevant than rig counts:

• number of DUCs
• fracking backlog
• drilling rig efficiency
• the EPA drilling reports (the "dashboards")

By the way, the "raw" number of rigs -- worldwide -- added or taken down is incredibly useless information. If one wants to consider the number of rigs as somewhat meaningful, we need to know:

• regionally, the rig numbers, not the global numbers; and, 
• rigs being added or taken down on a percentage basis

Even when the number of active rigs in North Dakota was hitting "modern" lows, North Dakota was still setting all-time production records.

Some oft-visited posts:

• Update regarding ND DUCs, June 29, 2019 
• DUCs -- It's Complicated, January 20, 2019
• DUCs in North Dakota continue to increase, August 17, 2018
• What's with all the DUCs? RBN Energy -- February 14, 2017
• Update on DUCs -- Rystad Energy, August 5, 2016
• Thoughts on DUCs? NY Times -- February 19, 2016
• DUCs -- Rigzone Analysis -- December 15, 2015

Active Rigs In North Dakota By Operator -- April 5, 2017

Updates

April 10, 2017: the number of active rigs jumped from 48 to 52. Since the previous report, this was the increase in active rigs (CLR, Enerplus, Kraken Operating, and Hess each increased by one):

• CLR: went from 4 up to 5
• Enerplus: went from 2 up to 3
• Kraken Operating: went from 1 up to 2
• Hess: went from 3 up to 4 

Original Post

From the NDIC, April 5, 2017.

Operator	Number of Rigs
MRO	11
Whiting	5
BR	4
CLR	4
Hess	3
Enerplus	2
Oasis	2
Petro Hunt	2
Statoil	2
WPX	2
XTO	2
Abraxas	1
Crescent Point	1
Halcon	1
Kraken	1
Liberty Resources	1
Lime Rock	1
McKenzie Energy (SWD)	1
Newfield	1
QEP	1
Slawson	1

After some recent posts, I was surprised to see that Statoil had two active rigs in North Dakota. But what really surprised me was that considering how active Slawson seems to be, Slawson has only one active rig in North Dakota.

The recent count has been as high as 51, so there may be two more rigs out there that will show up over the next few days.

Note: McKenzie Energy has one rig drilling a salt water disposal well. 

Unfettered, The WIlliston Basin Could Produce 2 Million BOPD With Less Than 50 Rigs -- January 22, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/22/2017	01/22/2016	01/22/2015	01/22/2014	01/22/2013
Active Rigs	38	47	159	187	188

January, 2010

• 81 rigs
• 235,925 bopd

January, 2011

• 163 rigs
• 342,088 bopd

January, 2012

• 200 rigs
• 546,047 bopd 

January 22, 2013

• 188 rigs
• 738,022 bopd

January 22, 2014

• 187 rigs
• 933,128 bopd

January 22, 2015

• 159 rigs
• 1,190,490 bopd

January 22, 2016

• 47 rigs
• 1,122,100 bopd

January 22, 2017 

• 38 rigs
• 1,100,000 bopd (estimate)

Comments: early on in the Bakken, I remember all that talk about the Red Queen effect and the decline rate of the Bakken. Maybe, maybe not. But with 47 rigs, North Dakota is producing the same amount of crude oil on a daily basis that it did with 200 rigs. In addition, take into consideration that crude oil production is front-loaded on Bakken wells; there are approximately 900 DUCs (wells that have been drilled to depth, not fracked, and could be brought on line in one to two weeks); and, another 1,200 inactive wells (completed wells that have been shut-in due to low commodity prices and other reasons). Unfettered, the Williston Basin could produce 2 million bopd with less than 50 rigs.

There are rumors that we could see 100 active rigs in North Dakota by summer, 2017, but that begs the question: why?

Saudi Arabia is crowing that OPEC and Russia have taken about 1.5 million bbls of oil off the global market per day. The Bakken alone could replace that if necessary. And then we have three more plays: the Permian, the Eagle Ford, and the Trump.

DAPL -- Army Corps Of Engineers Re-Imagining Things -- RBN Energy -- November 8, 2016

Russian Northern Fleet: has arrived -- almost. The last ping  -- almost two hours ago -- showed the fleet was not far off the coast of Syria. The tug is not moving, suggesting this is probably where the aircraft carrier will stage. 

Track active rig count here: link. 

Active rigs:

	11/8/2016	11/08/2015	11/08/2014	11/08/2013	11/08/2012
Active Rigs	39	64	193	182	189

RBN Energy: US Army Corps of Engineers studying options for the DAPL.

OPEC "warns" oil prices will stay low for longer -- Wall Street Journal. 

OPEC says its share of the global market will increase as US output from shale fields slows down. As if that matters, when Saudi Arabia is selling oil for $40/bbl and they need $100-oil but would be "happy" with $80-oil. From the linked article (which seems to be an old article -- it seems I've seen all this somewhere before), data points:

• crude-oil prices will rebound much less than expected in the next four years 

Let's repeat that:

• crude-oil prices will rebound much less than expected in the next four years

Note two items within that forecast:

• much less than expected
• in the next four years

Wow.  

Back to OPEC's long-term assessment:

• OPEC assumes oil prices will rise by $5 a bbl in the medium term, reaching $60 by 2020
• $60 is $20 less than the baseline figure of $80/bbl that it used in 2015 for the beginning of the next decade

Wow.  

And where we stand today, from IEA / MarketWatch:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday (today) raised its forecasts for U.S. crude production for 2016 and 2017.

In its monthly energy outlook report, the government agency forecast U.S. crude output of 8.84 million barrels a day this year, up 1.3% from the previous forecast. For 2017, it sees production rising to 8.73 million barrels a day, up 1.7% from last month's forecast.

The EIA also forecast an average price of $42.84 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude this year, up from a previous estimate of $42.78.

Brent crude is seen averaging $43.30 this year, down from the $43.43 forecast in October. December WTI crude (CLZ6) traded at $45.26 a barrel. December Brent crude (LCOF7) at $46.29 a barrel.

Wow, CVX; Williston -- Headline Story In Oil & Gas Journal; Soybeans Surging -- October 26, 2016

Wow, CVX:

• CVX: story here; 3Q16 earnings of $1.3 billion, down from $2 billion in 3Q15; surprises with a dividend hike; stronger than expected earnings; 68 cents vs 37 to 40 cents; wow;  

I remember over the years being told that CVX was the weakest among COP, XOM, and CVX. COP posts a $1 billion loss in 3Q16; XOM under SEC investigation; and CVX surprises with earnings and an increase in the dividend, which of course sent share price up.

************************************

Williston: Headline Story in Oil & Gas Journal

 
From Oil & Gas Journal today on US rig counts: Williston’s biggest jump in 2 years.

US land-based rigs gained 5 units this week to 533, with rigs engaged in horizontal drilling also rising 5 units, reaching 450, up 136 since May 27.

Directional drilling rigs rose 3 units to 54. North Dakota and its Williston basin led the major oil- and gas-producing regions with a 5-unit jump to 35, representing their biggest increase since Aug. 8. 2014.

*********************************'

Soybeans

Soybean exports power US economy to best performance in two years. -- Reuters.

In 2014 - 2015, North Dakota moved up to 9th place: 202 million bushels in 2014; 190 million bushels in 2015.

In 2012 - 2013, North Dakota ranked 10th on the list for soybeans; 163 million bushels in 2012; 139 million bushels in 2013.

In 2004, North Dakota ranked 10th on the list for soybeans, based on cash receipts.  

US Oil Rig Count Rises Due To Increase In Permian, Williston Basins -- IBD -- September 30, 2016

From Investor's Business Daily: US oil rig count rises again on Permian, Williston gains! Data points:

• US oil rig count rose by seven this past week to 425
• oil rigs have risen in the past 13 out of 14 weeks
• most recently: Williston Basin rose by two to 30; Cana-Woodford rose by two to 35; Eagle Ford steady at 33

Active rigs:

	9/30/2016	09/30/2015	09/30/2014	09/30/2013	09/30/2012
Active Rigs	33	68	190	184	190

Three (3) new permits:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
• Comments:

No producing wells reported as being completed (DUCs): none.

Two permits canceled:

• 26697, PNC, HRC, Hagbos 2-25-36H, Standahl, 
• 29380, PNC, MRO, Tucker 44-20TFH, Bailey,

Seven permits renewed:

• EOG (3): three Austin permits, Mountrail County
• HRC (2): two Borrud permits, Williams County
• Hunt: an Oakland permit, Mountrail County
• Petro-Hunt: a Jorgenson permit, Burke County

From A Low Of Around 30 Active Rigs In North Dakota Just A Few Weeks Ago, Now Back Up To 37 -- September 8, 2016

We haven't seen this many active rigs since February, 2016, when the slide really began.

Today:

	9/8/2016	09/08/2015	09/08/2014	09/08/2013	09/08/2012
Active Rigs	37	73	196	184	191

************************* 

Active rigs in North Dakota (by producer)

Official Activity

Page 2

Page 1

New entries will begin after this date. I will not add any more updates at the older post linked above. 

• May 17, 2019: 65 active rigs; WTI $63
• July 29, 2017: 61 active rigs; about 11 more than folks thought there would be at this time a year ago; WTI rose 9% this past week; just shy of $50
• April 27, 2017: Outrun Change has a nice update with more recent data; active rig count rose to 52 for a day or so in early April when WTI was trending toward $55 but has since dropped back to 48; similarly, WTI has dropped back to $48.50.
• February 17, 2017: back to 40; had hit 36 one week ago for about four days; 40 is identical to the "40" one year ago, February 17, 2016
• January 18, 2017: back to 38 active rigs, after being down to 36 rigs for about two weeks;
• December 12, 2016: 41 active rigs;
• December 8, 2016: 40 active rigs;
• November 8, 2016: 39 active rigs; 
• November 4, 2016: 37 active rigs; had dropped back to 34 but now back to 37;

Active Rigs In North Dakota -- February 27, 2016

Active rigs in North Dakota listed in order by operator:

• BR: 4
• CLR: 4
• Enerplus: 1
• EOG: 1 
• Hess: 4
• Halcon: 2
• Liberty Resources: 1
• Marathon: 1
• Newfield: 1
• Oasis: 2
• Petro Hunt: 1
• QEP: 3
• Slawson: 1
• SM Energy: 1
• Statoil: 2
• Whiting: 3
• WPX: 1
• XTO: 5

Rig	Operator	Well Name and Number	Current Location	County
H & P 516	BURLINGTON RES O&G CO	CCU ZEPHYR 34-34 TFH	SWSW 34-147N-94W	DUN
H & P 515	BURLINGTON RES O&G CO	MERTON 21-15TFH 3NH	NENW 15-149N-96W	MCK
PRECISION 578	BURLINGTON RES O&G CO	STAFFORD 13-34TFH	NWSW 34-151N-95W	MCK
H & P 492	BURLINGTON RES O&G CO	MERTON 21-15MBH	NENW 15-149N-96W	MCK
NABORS X27	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES	HENDRICKSON FEDERAL 3-36H2	SESW 36-153N-94W	MCK
H & P 535	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES	HEREFORD FEDERAL 2-20H1	SWNW 20-153N-94W	MCK
CYCLONE 38	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES	RATH FEDERAL 13-22H	SENW 23-153N-93W	MTL
H & P 640	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES	CORSICAN FEDERAL 3-15H	NENE 15-153N-93W	MTL
STONEHAM 18	ENERPLUS RES USA CORP	HUDSON 13-21H	NENW 13-149N-94W	MCK
H & P 524	EOG RESOURCES INC	AUSTIN 421-2821H	SESE 28-154N-90W	MTL
NABORS B09	HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENT II	HA-SANFORD- 152-96-1819H-6	NENW 18-152N-96W	MCK
NABORS b05	HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENT II	BB-BUDAHN- 150-95-0506H-7	SESE 5-150N-95W	MCK
NABORS B4	HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENT II	EN-URAN A- LE-154-93-2214H-2	SWSE 22-154N-93W	MTL
NABORS B06	HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENT II	CA-RUSSELL SMITH- 155-96-2425H-1	NWNE 24-155N-96W	WIL
PATTERSON 268	HRC OPERATING, LLC	FORT BERTHOLD 148-95-23C-14-8H	NENW 26-148N-95W	DUN
PATTERSON 806	HRC OPERATING, LLC	FORT BERTHOLD 152-93-7C-6-13H	SESW 7-152N-93W	MCK
PATTERSON 286	LIBERTY RES MNGMT CO	ANDERSON 156-97-4-9-2MBH	SWSW 36-157N-97W	WIL
H & P 438	MARATHON OIL CO	CHARMAINE USA 14-35TFH	NWSE 34-152N-94W	MCK
PATTERSON 344	NEWFIELD PROD CO	JORGENSON FEDERAL 148-96-10-15-3H	NENW 10-148N-96W	DUN
PATTERSON 330	OASIS PETRO NO AMER	ROLFSON N 5198 14-17 11BX	NENE 17-151N-98W	MCK
NABORS B22	OASIS PETRO NO AMER	ROLFSON S 5198 12-29 7B	NENW 29-151N-98W	MCK
TRUE 36	PETRO HUNT LLC	DOLEZAL 146-97-31D-30-3H	LOT1 6-145N-97W	DUN
UNIT 404	QEP ENERGY CO	FOREMAN 4-2-1BHR	SWSW 2-150N-95W	MCK
UNIT 329	QEP ENERGY CO	KDM 4-7-6T2HD	SWSW 7-149N-95W	MCK
UNIT 121	QEP ENERGY CO	KDM 1-7-6T2HD	SWSE 7-149N-95W	MCK
UNIT 123	SLAWSON EXPLORATION	RIVER RAT FEDERAL 5-23-14TFH	NWNE 26-152N-93W	MTL
NABORS 687	SM ENERGY CO	M HAUGEN 14B-24HN	SESW 24-160N-100W	DIV
NABORS B24	STATOIL OIL & GAS	SAX 25-36F #7H	SESW 36-153N-98W	MCK
CRAIG P1	STATOIL OIL & GAS	SAMSON 29-32 #6H	SESW 20-153N-97W	MCK
PIONEER 75	WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP	ROLLA FEDERAL 31-3-4TFH	LOT7 3-152N-97W	MCK
PATTERSON 808	WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP	ROLLA FEDERAL 21-3-1H	LOT6 3-152N-97W	MCK
PATTERSON 280	WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP	CARSCALLEN 31-14-2H	NENW 14-154N-98W	WIL
NABORS B08	WPX ENERGY WILLISTON LLC	NORTH SEGMENT 6-5-4 HA	NWNW 6-150N-91W	MCL
NABORS B10	XTO ENERGY INC	TAT STATE FEDERAL 14X-36G	SWSW 36-148N-96W	DUN
NABORS B19	XTO ENERGY INC	FBIR BLACKMEDICINE 24X-21AXD	SESW 21-149N-91W	DUN
EXTREME 16	XTO ENERGY INC	JOHNSON 31X-6D	LOT2 6-149N-97W	MCK
NABORS x10	XTO ENERGY INC	LUND 41X-17C	NENE 17-150N-97W	MCK
NABORS 742	XTO ENERGY INC	JMB 14X-15B	SWSW 15-155N-95W	WIL