Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Completing 1Q17 Data -- April 30, 2019

I'm going through the wells that came off the confidential list in the 1Q17. Some wells were still shown as DUCs. I am updating those DUCs. All wells below were still shown as DUCs; updating them tonight. 

I will move these to the appropriate location on the blog tomorrow.
  • 32712, 2,167, Equinor/Statoil, Heinz 18-19 5H, Patent Gate, t2/18; cum 98K 2/19; came off line 10/18; still off line as of 2/19;
  • 29556, 330, Equinor/Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 3H, Sakakawea, t1/18; cum 93K 2/19; went off line 11/18; still off line as of 2/19;31966, 1,803, XTO, George Federal 21X-19F2, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 94K 2/18; off line as of 10/18; back on line as of 1/19 (26K in January, 2019) but then off line again in 2/19;
  • 31965, 2,446, XTO, George Federal 21X-19A, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 114K 2/19; off line as of 10/18; back on line as of 1/19; then off line in 2/19;
  • 31964, 2,823, XTO, George Federal 21X19E, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 138K 2/19; off line as of10/18; then back on line as of 12/18; huge well;
  • 31187, 571, Enerplus, Wooly Torch 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 186K 2/19; off line as of 1/19; remains off-line as of 2/19;  
  • 32463, 421, Petro-Hunt/SM Energy, Milt Sandra 15-20HS, Ambrose, t3/19; cum -- (only 9 days of production);
  • 29790, 662, Enerplus, Saguaro 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 244K 2/19; off line as of 1/19; remains off-line as of 2/19; 
  • 32462, 179, Petro-Hunt/SM Energy, Hank Katie 15-20HN, Ambrose, t2/19; cum --; only 18 days of production;
  • 32501, 1,884, XTO, Werre Trust 14X-34AXD-N, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 200K 2/19; 
  • 32500, 2,717, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXD-N, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 261K 2/19;
  • 32499, 1,071, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34EXH2-N, Bear Creek, t6/18; cum 127K 2/19; came off line 10/18; back online for seven days in 2/19; 
  • 32481, 2,288, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34A, Bear Creek, t9/18; cum 127K 2/19; 
  • 32480, 2,653, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34E, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 119K 2/19; off line as of 11/18; still off line as of 2/19; 
  • 32479, 2,701, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXB, Bear Creek, t7/18; cum 185K 2/19;
  • 31963, 2,596, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19AXB, Lost Bridge, t8/18; cum 84K 2/19; off line as of 10/18; huge production since then, but off line recently; 
Remains a DUC:
  • 32938, SI/NC, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-156-92-24V-2, Ross, a Birdbear well; no production data,
  • 32449, SI/NC, SM Energy, Donna Buddy 15B-20HN, Amrose, no production data, 
  • 32450, SI/NC, SM Energy, Gracious God 15B-20HS,  Ambrose, no production data, 
  • 32883, SI/NC, North Range Resources, LLC, Placid 28-1V, Rough Rider, target: Duperow, Mission Canyon, Souris River; spacing 160 acres; a "vertical well" but the target bottom hole will be 1301 feet north of well and 1058 feet east of well; no production data,  
Remains confidential:
  • 32381, conf, BR, Hawktail 11-11MBH-ULW, -- off confidential list according to NDIC, but data not reported by this date

Oil Spikes -- From Oilprice -- Late Evening, April 30, 2019

From oilprice:

Minor Market Notes -- April 30, 2019

GE: slows cash burn as it shrinks -- WSJ. Guides that 2Q19 will show negative cash flow but stick to 2019 forecasts. Grounding of Boeing's 737 Max 8 airline will make things challenging.

GM loses ground to Ford. The WSJ.

Disruptor? Walmart or Amazon?
  • Motley Fool: Walmart is the real disruptor. 
  • Consumer spend, pymnts, November, 2018:
    • Walmart: accounts for 8.9% of consumer retail spending in the US; 2.8% of all consumer spending in the US
    • Amazon: 6.4%; 2.1% for comparable figures
  • on-line retailers:
    • Amazon -- #1 by a long shot
    • eBay -- #2
    • Walmart -- #3 -- "leapfrogging" over Apple
    • Apple -- #4
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here and what you think you may have read here.

Economic Indicators

Odds and ends:
  • no "major wars": and an-volunteer military
  • jobs: initial unemployment claims -- at 50-year record
  • jobs: full employment -- unemployment well under 4%
  • jobs: employers looking to hire more "seniors"
  • jobs: huge source of potential low wage "southern surge" employees 
  • inflation: tame; no wage inflation; CPI below Fed goal
  • workforce participation: increasing; a record?
  • GDP: first reading, first quarter -- 3.2% vs 2.7% forecast
  • WTI: in the sweet spot at $60 
  • gasoline demand: busting out
  • energy: an American glut -- solar, wind, natural gas, nuclear, coal
  • trade: irrelevant; US economy is 2/3rd consumer-drive;
  • trade: China culling swine; will need US farm products;
  • trade: China won't come close to its natural gas production goals; will need foreign supplies
  • US Fed: there are indications that "rates" won't be raised this year; even talk of a possible 50-bp cut
  • established, mature companies are blowing away earnings: Ford, Amazon, Apple
  • P/E's: neither historically high, nor historically low; average at 16 -- Schwab advisor
  • "money remains cheap"
  • Americans have money to spend: Avengers: Endgame with $1.2 billion opening weekend
  • personal tax rates cut; refunds down: only one explanation 
  • corporate tax cuts still working their way through the system:  
  • $1,000-smart phones for $35/month (iPhone 10R, Sprint) 
  • it's crawfish season here in the south
  • and, then this, in the late edition of  The Wall Street Journal -- so, it must be true -- 

Market futures (8:38 p.m. CT):
  • Dow: up 70 points
  • Nasdaq: up 45 points
  • S&P 500: up 7.50 points
On that list above, the one that should be most bullish:
  • Americans have money to spend: Avengers: Endgame with $1.2 billion opening weekend

For me, this is the #1 song I associate with southern California ...

Spirit In The Sky, Norman Greenbaum

Released in late 1969; Spirit in the Sky played through those 18 months, late 1969 to early 1971. I took a road trip from South Dakota to California in late 1969. First trip ever for me out of the midwest as an adult. Three of the six on that road trip were Californians; three of us were midwesterners (Iowa, South Dakota, and North Dakota). We must have heard this song on the radio a hundred times on that road trip but it was most incredible when it came on just as we entered the San Diego metropolitan area. We came as close to Tom Wolfe's The Electric Kook-Aid Acid Test without realizing it. That book came out in 1968; don't remember when I first read it, but the book wouldn't have meant as much without that road trip.

Holy Mackerel -- AAPL Shares Up 5% After-Hours; Up Over $10; Trading At $211 -- April 30, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

WSJ link here; and, here.

Apple beats expectations, 2Q19 results. Link here; and, here; and, here; and, here;
  • earnings:
    • expectations: $2.37
    • actual: $2.46
  • revenue:
    • expectations: $57.49
    • actual: $58
  • Apple's services making more money than ever
  • just wait until the Apple Watch measures blood glucose non-invasively (no need for needle) 
  • valuation back toward $1 trillion
  • cash hoard now at $225.4 billion

Can't wait to read the snarky comments over at Macrumors.
  • $11.56 billion profit on $58 billion revenue as services revenue hits all-time high
  • gross margins: 37.6% vs 38.3% one year ago
  • international sales accounting for 61% of revenue
Increased its dividend to 77 cents/share, up from 73 cents/share.

Also authorized $75 billion to re-purchase more AAPL shares.

This is the second quarter since Apple changed the way it reports its results, with the company no longer providing unit sales data for iPhone, iPad, and Mac. As a result, Apple is only providing revenue figures for its various segments, leaving analysts to estimate unit sales based on their own calculations.

Twenty comments so far but by tomorrow there will be a thousand. Comments:
First comment:
$58 billion was on the higher end of their guidance; beat again. 
First snarky comment:
So right in the middle of their guidance range of $55 to $59 billion. Year over year of 5% decline. Looks like services aren't ramping as quickly as hardware is dropping. 
Great comment:
Services are double the revenue of the Mac. Yet, we still have people here telling them to ditch services and focus on the Mac ... to other forms of media, shows that the future is not just hardware anymore. 

China Natural Gas Production Update -- April 330, 2019

See "NaturalGas_China" tag.

China won't come close to its 2020 goal of 30 billion cubic meters natural gas production.

Independent analysts expect China to produce 13 billion cubic meters natural gas per year production by 2020. 

Active Rigs At 64; WTI Settles Below $64 -- April 30,2019

API crude oil inventory: surprise build. Another whopping 7-million-bbl build -- the same as last week. Forecast? A build of 2 million bbls. How did Z-Man do? This was his professional research: a crude oil build of less than onemillion bbls. However, that is what he forecasts the EIA will report -- that report comes out tomorrow.

MDU earnings: misses by two cents; EPS of 21 cents; is that about a 10% miss?; revenue of $1.09 billion beats expectations by $90 million. Shares down by about half a percent.

Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6461492986

No new permits.

One permit renewed:
  • Whiting, a Kessel permit, in Stark County.

CVX -OXY - APC -- The Saga Continues -- April 30, 2019

This is absolutely fascinating to follow. After it was revealed that OXY sought and received support from Warren Buffett in the former's goal to buy Anadarko:
  • OXY: down a whopping 2.89%; losing almost $1.75; trading at $58.30
  • CVX: up a whopping 3.22%; adding $3.79 to its under-value value; now trading at $121.51
WTI is up slightly today, so one can argue that the change in OXY / CVX share price is due completely to the Warren Buffett story. Apparently investors would like CVX  and OXY to stay away from Anadarko, which is not uncommon.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision(s) based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.


Perhaps this explains why SRE has been "down" the last couple of days.
  • McDermott says initial production from the second and third liquefaction trains at Sempra Energy's Cameron LNG export terminal is expected in 2020, months later than previously expected.
  • LNG startup from trains 2 and 3 at Cameron is now set for Q1 2020 2020 and Q2 2020, respectively, MDR CFO Stuart Spence said on yesterday's earnings conference call.
  • SRE said as recently as February that it hoped to have all three trains at the Louisiana facility operational by the end of this year.
  • Production from Train 1 is expected to begin within weeks, and eventually the terminal will be ready to ship cargoes.

AAPL: reports after market close today .

CLR's April, 2019, Investor Update Has Been Posted

Link here.

  • 1Q19 results
    • net income: $187 million
    • growth yoy: 16%
    • oil growth yoy: 18%
    • total G&A per boe: $1.60
    • improved oil diff QoQ: 43%
  • Three strategic "step-out" wells with excellent results, 24-hour IPs
    • current metric: 100,000 bbls in 90 days
      • MT, Baird Federal: 1,680 
        • outperforming legacy well by 110% at 60 days
      • ND, Burian: 2,400
        • outperforming legacy well by 80% at 60 days
      • ND, McClintock, 2,440
        • outperforming legacy well by 100% at 60 days
  • low cost leader among peers (actually identifies peers on slide 4)
    • quite striking
    • compare with APC, OAS, DVN, others; 
    • EOG comes close
    • APC comes close
  • lowest maintenance cash flow breakeven: shows a breakeven of $38
  • operations
    • 194 optimized development wells completed in 23 units
    • entire 194 well development program has paid out
    • top 10 CLR Bakken 30-day rate units
    • three of top ten units were completed in 1Q19
For Future Reference

Regarding the wells CLR references above:
  • Burian:
    • 35495, conf, CLR, Burian 4-27H1, St Demetrius, t--; 16K over 14 days;
    • 21806, 854, CLR, Burian 1-27H, St Demetrius, t3/12; cum 259K 2/19; 
    • McClintock:
      • 35538, conf, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley, t--; cum 10K over unspecified number of days;
      • 22031, 819, CLR, McClintock 1-1H, Pleasant Valley, t6/12; cum 213K 2/19;

Tesla -- Share Price Critical? -- April 30, 2019

From ZeroHedge one year ago, April 28, 2018:
So if Musk owed $624.3 million over a year ago (2017) and subsequently paid interest on that loan while drawing a minimal salary ($49,920) and continuing his aforementioned luxurious lifestyle while pouring $100 million into his latest distraction, the Boring Company, it seems reasonable to guess that his current loans total approximately $800 million, which means—according to the new proxy—they’d need to be collateralized by $3.2 billion in Tesla shares.
[Again, back in early 2018] As the proxy notes Musk has currently pledged 13,774,897 of his 37,853,041 shares to support those loans, it implies that at a share price below $232.30 (assuming a current balance of $800 million), he’d face either a margin call or the need to post additional shares as collateral. (For some perspective, earlier this month [April, 2018] the stock dipped as low as the $244s.)

It appears TSLA dropped to about $232 last Friday (April 26, 2019). The stock recovered yesterday to $241.

Tesla turned negative this morning (Tuesday, April 30, 2019) after two events.
  • Chinese company buys billboard in Times Square complaining about faulty Teslas
  • Tesla will cut prices of solar panels in attempt to regain solar energy dominance
First Solar, trading slightly negative today, is trading in its 52-week mid-range.

Blue Apron

A better-than-expected quarter at Blue Apron. The meal kit company posted a narrower loss than many expected, but revenue slid 28% year-over-year. Blue Apron has been struggling to re-claim market share and recently brought in a new CEO to try to reignite growth. Hardly seems like a "going" concern.

The Decline And Slow Death Of California -- Zero Hedge -- April 30, 2019

Re-posting. Link here.

Data points:
  • since 1985, California crude oil production has plunged 60 percent to 460,000 bopd
  • California's oil reserves have declined 25% to 2.2 billion bbls
  • compare North Dakota, four small western counties:
    • 1.2 million bopd
    • reserves: conservatively 7 billion bbls 
  • fracking: doubled US reserves to 45 billion bbls over the past ten years
  • California: second biggest crude oil consumer after Texas; each day --
  • 40 million gallons of gasoline
  • 8 million gallons of diesel
  • 20% of the country's jet fuel
  • dependent on Middle Eastern oil
  • strict environmental rules preclude using its own oil or Canadian oil
  • 37% of California oil comes from OPEC
  • some promising shale unlikely to be tapped in near future if ever
  • natural gas: most important source in energy mix in California
  • look at this: 95% of natural gas consumed in California is imported
  • unlikely any significant increase in local natural gas production
North Dakota vs California:

Kashoggi Suspect Found Dead In Cell

For those who missed it, reported by The WSJ

Hung, ruled a suicide.

Britain's Natural Gas Imports Booming -- Bloomberg -- April 30, 2019

Link here, data points:
  • NG imports increasing; no sign of slowing down
  • British imports usually decline in the summer; not this year
  • increased NG imports due to number of reasons
  • price
  • extensive infrastructure
  • extensive traded hubs
  • Britain can absorb any global surplus as well as handle a growing worldwide producion boom
  • cooler weather also supporting demand in the UK
  • UK shipments are mainly sourced from the biggest exporter, Qatar
  • Nigeria, Norway in the mix
  • US becoming a bigger player
  • April: likely to set a record high import month for LNG into the UK
TCM Special On Robert Osborne

Last night; incredible. Probably available on YouTube.

Made his own luck. 

COP Beats By Ten Cents; Doubles Earnings; BHGE Adjusted Income Doubles -- April 30, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Others reporting today:
  • PSX (Phillips 66): forecast, 39 cents; Market Street forecasts 34 cents;
  • AAPL, after market close, forecast, $2.36
  • BHGE: forecast, 13 cents; actual -- adjusted income doubles; 15 cents/share;
  • COP: forecast, 90 cents; business wire here;
  • GM: forecast, $1.11; actual -- a beat; beat driven by lucrative pickup truck sales; lifted in part by revaluations of shares it holds in ride-hailing company Lyft and Peugeot; 7% decline in US new-vehicle sales in 1Q19; GM pickups outsold by smaller rival Fiat Chrysler; net profit, $1.48; adjusted, $1.41; pre-tax earnings fell more than 11% [Comment: seems like a very, very mixed report; nice beat on earnings but everything else "shaky." Investors seems to agree: GM shares down almost 2% after earnings released. On a day that the market is up slightly, but broadly, GM continues to fall -- in early pre-market trading fell almost 3% before recovering a bit.]
COP: earnings presentation (slides) here. Earnings transcript here

COP: from link above --
  • earnings: $1.8 billion; $1.60/share -- vs $0.9 billion, 75 cents a year ago
  • adjusted, $1.1 billion, $1.00/share beating forecast of 90 cents/share
  • cash from operations: $2.9 billion
  • free cash flow: $1.3 billion
  • repurchased $0.8 billion of shares; paid $0.3 billion in dividends -- funded entirely from free cash flow
  • grew production from the Lower 48 Big 3 unconventionals by 30 percent y-o-y
  • cash on hand at end of year: $6.5 billion
  • reminder: court ordered Venezuela to pay COP $8.7 billion for unlawful expropriation
  • pays 1.83% 
  • 8-K here
COP at SeekingAlpha:
  • ConocoPhillips up 1.3% pre-market after reporting a solid Q1 earnings beat, helped by increased production from its U.S. assets.
  • COP did not provide revenue results in the release, but says Q1 production excluding Libya rose 7.5% to 1.32M boe/day, and expects Q2 output of 1.24M-1.28M boe/day, with seasonal turnarounds planned in Alaska, Canada and Europe.
  • COP's total realized price in the quarter was $50.59/bbl vs. $50.49/bbl a year ago, as higher LNG and bitumen prices were largely offset by lower crude, natural gas liquids and natural gas prices.
  • COP also reiterates its long-term cash flow outlook from the November analyst meeting, where it said it expects to generate absolute and per-share organic growth and return at least 30%/year of cash from operations to shareholders and deliver free cash flow at less than $40/bbl WTI across a range of prices.

Active Rigs Steady At 64 -- April 30, 2019

NY Times: five companies that made a multi-billion dollar profit last year (2018) and paid no taxes:
  • Amazon: $10 billion profit
  • Chevron, EOG, GM, and Detla Airlines
Top GoM producers, link here:
  • Chevron + Anadarko: would take first place; 400,000 boepd
  • BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Equinor, Fieldwood
  • XOM, BHP, combined Murphy and LLOG, Hess, Talos Energy
Permian school: child card, 6 weeks to 5 years old; afterschool for kindergarten to 5th grade
  • sponsored by Anadarko, Chevron, EOG, and Occidental; link here.
Line 5, Michigan, Enbridge: replacement/upgrade looks dead. 

Iran, sanctions: Asia's crude oil imports from Iran rise to 8-month high at 1.5 million bopd in March; Iran exports to Asia will continue even under new restrictions/sanctions.

LNG imports: Britain, setting new records; no signs of decreasing; link here.

  • yesterday this was reported -- Huge Russian pipeline shutdown: crude oil contaminated with organic chlorides; corrosive; damaging to pipelines, refiners. One million bopd from the Urals into eastern Europe (Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic). 
  • update today: Poland releasing emergency oil stocks
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today  -- Tuesday, April 30, 2019: 95 wells for the month; 95 wells for the quarter
  • 34783, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-1H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 107K 3/19;
  • 34405, 715, Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P., Lamey 4-30-31H-143-96, Fayette, t10/18; bcum 43K 2/19;
  • 33125, 1,896, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-8H,McGregory Buttes, t11/18; cum 86K 2/19;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6461492986

RBN Energy: San Mateo Midstream's Delaware Basin gathering systems, part 3.
The run-up in Permian crude oil production over the past few years — and the expectation of continued gains — has been spurring the development of a number of crude gathering systems in the play’s Midland and Delaware basins. These small-diameter pipeline networks are critically important to producers and shippers in that they enable them to transport crude more quickly and cost-effectively than by truck, and (ideally) they connect to takeaway pipelines that flow to multiple destinations. But there is more than one approach to developing a gathering system. For example, a midstream company could plan a system that appeals to several producers in an area and then try to sign them up. Or, it might work closely with a single producer — sometimes an affiliated company — and design a gathering system to meet its specific needs, then work to add other producers and shippers later. Today, we look at the West Texas and southeastern New Mexico systems developed by a joint-venture company of Matador Resources and Five Point Energy to serve Matador and others.
Any Landing From Which One Can Walk Away ...