Thursday, September 14, 2017

Jones Act Waivers In Light Of Hurricanes -- September 14, 2017

Link here:
Independent refiner Phillips 66 says it has chartered a foreign-flagged tanker under a Jones Act waiver President Donald Trump's administration issued to relieve hurricane-related fuel shortages in the southeast US.

The refiner said it used the waiver to charter the Nave Jupiter, which is flagged in the Marshall Islands. The tanker left Houston on 9 September and was docked near Phillips 66's 250,000 b/d Alliance refinery in Louisiana today.
The company previously requested a Jones Act waiver to supply crude to the Alliance refinery, but the company withdrew the request before the administration made a decision.
Phillips 66 is the first company known to use the administration's Jones Act waiver, a law that requires shipments between domestic ports to occur on US-flagged, owned and crewed ships.
US Homeland Security acting secretary Elaine Duke this week signed an order extending the waiver through 22 September, citing "severe disruptions" that Hurricane Harvey caused to the midstream and downstream sectors of the oil industry.
Why do I get the feeling that neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton would have approved these waivers?

Wells I No Longer Follow -- September 14, 2017

This is simply some housekeeping. Nothing new here. This has all been posted before. The page where this came from was getting too long. These are wells that I was watching for some reason or other; once I saw what I wanted to see, I "closed" them out.

Page 5

July 31, 2017: #16459, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, recent off-line; highly successful re-frack; tested 9/12/18, with a "new" IP of 1,443, 45 stages; 5.4 million lbs sand;

August 1, 2017: #17089, Bridger 44-14H. 3-well pad; two wells fracked 4/17; see effect it had on #17089. See update on #17089.

March 1, 2017: were neighboring wells fracked to drive this increase in production in 12/16 - 1/17? #19548. Tracked here.  And here. Update: July 18, 2017: still no FracFocus report or anything in the file report to suggest this well was re-fracked. Original frack back in 2011, 24 stages, 2.4 million lbs.

March 17, 2017: XTO's #30834, only 10 stages, 2 million lbs; is there an explanation? At same point check all those "lousy" wells: 30834; 31596; 31609; 31597; and, 32151. Updated: lousy IPs but when they finally began to produce they were all great wells

December 5, 2016: check up on Flatland Federal / Tarpon Federal wells. Were they all taken off line while #30775 was re-worked/re-fracked? Sundry form/completion form says CLR will resume fishing operations 1Q16. Was this delayed; as of 12/16, no update in the file report.

February 15, 2017: CLR's Anna well pad; a reader asked about them; reader thinks he's not getting full answers from CLR; all wells are SI/NC, but sundry form suggests CLR planned to complete them 1/17, but no evidence yet that is occurring. #30157, #30156, #30155, #30154, #32969, #32968, #32967, #32966. Watch for #23279 coming off-line -- that will be hint that wells are about to be fracked. [Update, #23279 came off-line 1/17.][Update, #23279 back on-line; other wells have been fracked. See this link.] Check in a few months to see if production changed for #23279. Update, 6/17: huge jump; see this post. October 2, 2017: all wells on line; looks like fracking complete; newer well and older wells on line and producing.

February 4, 2017: check the Florida wells when they start reporting; #28800. Huge (4/17). Update here

October 13, 2016: Whiting took all of its wells in Twin Valley off-line the entire month of August, 2016; no explanation; all back on line, and most are incredible wells;

June 25, 2016: CLR re-frack in the Rattlesnake Point oilfield. #17089. Update: this well was taken off-line 7/16; getting ready for a re-frack? Recent sundry form says they are getting ready to drill more wells in this area -- was that reason for coming off-line? API: 33-025-00731. FracFocus does not show this well as having been fracked. Now inactive; still inactive as of 5/17. Active as of 6/17; small production, one day, 6/17. Then, 2,000 bbls over 5 days in 7/17; fracked; completed, tested 8/10/2017 with an IP of 1,344; 40 stages; 14.3 million lbs; cum 363K 3/19;

April 18, 2015: TA/Amber Renee, #18408, went inactive 1/14 after huge drop in production; did something happen on a work-over; did putting in a pump cause a problem? TA; October, 2014, file report has sundry forms talking about a re-drill;

April 18, 2015: will they ever get this well working?
  • 22544, AB/TA/56, Lime Rock/OXY USA, Kary 2-24-13H-144-97, no evidence this has been fracked; t2/13; cum 1K 2/15; I thought this well would be plugged, but it's back on active status; problems running the liner; wanted to re-work the well starting o/a December 19, 2013; absolutely no production since 3/14; updated 3/19 -- no production.

March 20, 2015: 17-well, 2-pad site. On March 27, 2016, it was noted that at least six more locations in this section have been added. Now 34 wells sited in this section. 

December 24, 2014: three huge Whiting wells (#27520, #27521, #27522). These three huge wells went off-line in August, 2016. Production updates. Back on line as of 9/16. Huge jump in production 11/16; no explanation (FracFocus or NDIC sundry form). See this post, 3/19.

December 17, 2014: I noted this well on the MRO likely-to-be-refracked wells to have been taking off-line in early January, 2014; curious when it will go back on line:
  • 19375, A/AB/IA/308, MRO, Gertrude Tuhy 34-24H, Chimney Butte, Bakken, 14 stages; 2 million lbs; t3/11; cum 51K 3/19; last production of any note 1/14; six days of production in April, 2015; back on line as of April, 2015; full month of production May, 2015; full month, 6/15; noted in 11/15 to be inactive; noted to be AB, 12/16; but now back on line, 9/18;
December 9, 2014: just noticed that this one went inactive in August, 2014; track the well here.
  • 20398, 1,313 825 115 (corrected), Gadeco, Golden 25-36H, Epping, Bakken, t6/12; cum 190K 3/19; IA as of 8/14; back on status for one month, 12/14, but then off-line all of 1/15; now listed as A, 2/15. Off-line 11/15, and then back on-line 3/16 but only 3 - 6 days each month through 6/16. Two IPs provided; not explained why; t6/12; installed new ESP after it quit working 4/16; July 18, 2016; back on status, 2/15;A API 33-105-02135; FracFocus: no report that this well has been fracked. No stimulation reports in the file. On-line only 2 days 12/16; off-line since; last checked 3/17; remains off-line since 12/16 and before that off-line much of the time. Back on status 4/17; and a good well?
December 3, 2014: the operator wants to re-enter the Amber Renee (#18408). Noted on January 27, 2016, to be AB (abandoned). Now TA as of 3/16; sundry form March 8, 2016 -- original well bore plugged; "future use of of the wellbore will be to sidetrack and complete new lateral once commodity prices improve." Operator requests Amber Renee 25-36H be granted TA status for one (1) year. 

November 17, 2014
Statoil's Brown wells will be their first crack at cemented liners and increased frac stages. Will be interesting to see the difference. [ 27003, 27004, 27005, 27006, 28733, older wells: 20790, 18760. Reviewed March, 2015 (most recent data 1/15); still need time to compare; something going on -- 9/16; most of these wells with minimal production for one month -- something going on in the area?;
October 17, 2014:
  • 22166, 48 (no typo), CLR/Samson Resources, Outback 25-36-162-97H, Bluffton, 23 stages, 725K lbs, July, 2012; 35 stages, 650K lbs, August 12; something doesn't make sense; t9/12; cum 30K 3/19; was taken off-line 4/17 and placed on IA status. Back on status one month later; still a lousy well. 3/19.
August 26, 2014: from e-mail received this date, wondering when Hess would be pad drilling on wells with file numbers #17141 and #16911. One well now, but no new permits in either section. I track #17141 here.  3/19.

June 6, 2017: #13428, no new data, Rim Operating, Skurdal 6-24, Hardscrabble oil field, Red River and Stonewall, a recompletion; nothing remarkable; maybe check up on this in a year or so; the Duperow looks like a dud, 10/18. Remains IA, 3/19.

May 7, 2015: will this well be abandoned or start up again after the price of oil recovers?
#7614, A/AB/IA/712, Deep Creek Adventures Co, Signalness Federal 2-10, cum 280K 6/15; (Duperow) (5/15 -- I don't see the "AB" designation); vertical; Lost Bridge; back on-line as of 4/15; but then off-line as of 7/15; now AB noted 3/17;

90,000 Bbls/Month -- Huge Reporting Mistake -- September 14, 2017

Does anyone remember that huge monthly production profile in which BR reported a well that produced 90,000 bbls in one month?

That was a huge, huge error. See this post which has been updated.

Off The Net For Awhile

Back in the day, if I went to McDonald's and the tab came to $3.16, and all I had was a $5-bill and lots of change, I used to give the cashier the $5-bill and 16 cents in change. But about three years ago I started noticing that servers at McDonald's were confused when they got the 16 cents, and I usually still still got $1.84 back in change.

So, now I've given up. If the tab comes to $3.16, I just hand over the $5-bill and get all that change back. After five or six visits, I have enough change to pay the exact amount in pennies, nickels, dimes, and quarters.

Sometimes one just has to adjust.

Tesla Market Value

From CNN, a link sent to me by a reader:
That makes Tesla worth more than Big 3 automakers GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler as well as Japan's Honda and Nissan and South Korea's Hyundai. Not bad for a company that still sells a fraction of the vehicles put out by its rivals.
Worldwide sales, monthly:
  • Honda: 400,000
  • Nissan: 460,000
  • Hyundai: 375,000
  • GM: 800,000
  • Toyota: 800,000
  • Ford: 500,000
  • Tesla: 4,000
I don't know how CNN defines a fraction but let's see the percentage of just one of those:
4,000 / 400,000 = 4/400 = 1/100 -- so I guess that's one fraction: one out of a 100 (Tesla vs Ford) or 1%. (Actually less, but lots of rounding; not worth the trouble to do anything more than ballpark / back-of-the-envelope calculations.
For all the money VW and the others are throwing into EV development, they would be better off coming up with really, really fancy SUVs with tons of bells and whistles, starting with a free iPhone X for every driver; an iPhone 8 Plus for every passenger; and iPad movies for second row and third row. And lots more cup holders.

See graphic below, source:

Six New Permits; Seventeen Permits Renewed On A Day WTI Hits $50 -- September 14, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs563468199178

Six new permits:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Camel Butte (McKenzie)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for a 6-well Radermecher pad in SWSE 22-151-96 (see below):
Seventeen permits renewed:
  • Hess (5): five EN-Thompson Trust permits in Mountrail County
  • EOG (3): three Fertile permits in Mountrail County
  • Petro-Hunt (3): two Klevmoen Trust permits and one Anderson permit, all in McKenzie County
  • MRO (3): one Archie permit; one Erbe permit; and, one Arnew permit, all in Dunn County
  • Resource Energy CAN-AM LLC (2) an Adeline permit and a Mae permit, both in Divide County
  • Kaiser-Francis Oil: one Hushka permit in Stark County
New CLR Radermecher Pad

Watching Enerplus Wells In Spotted Horn -- September 14, 2017

A reader mentioned this section in passing. It's interesting enough to post the graphics so I don't forget to watch this area. These wells are being drilled (completed?) now. It will be quite awhile before we know how they turn out, but it's possible these wells will teach us more about the Bakken.

The graphics:

The wells:
  • 21536, 1,348, Enerplus, Mandan 150-94-32C-29H TF, Spotted Horn, t2/15; cum 344K 7/18;
  • 21537, 1,522, Enerplus, Hidatsa 150-94-32C-29H, Spotted Horn, t2/15; cum 362K 7/18;
  • 33291, SI/NC-> conf --> 1,395, Enerplus, Ft Berthold 150-94-32C29H, producing as of 2/18; going to be a big well; t2/18; cum 124K 7/18;
  • 33135, SI/NC-> conf-->1,591, Enerplus, Mandaree 150-94-32C_29H TF, Spotted Horn, producing as of 2/18; going to be a big well; t2/18; cum 126K 7/18;
  • 21539, 1,852, Enerplus, Arikara 150-94-32D-29H TF, Spotted Horn, t3/15; cum 297K 7/18;
  • 21538, 2,143, Enerplus, TAT 150-94-32D-29H, Spotted Horn, t3/15; cum 360K 7/18;
  • 33193, 94 (no typo), Enerplus, Bear Den 150-94-32D-29H, Spotted Horn, 38 stages; 7.6 million lbs, t1/18; cum 68K 7/18;
  • 33192, 81 (no typo), Enerplus, MHA 150-94-32D-29H TF, Spotted Horn, 40 stages; 8 million lbs, t1/18; cum 121K 7/18;

Random Look At Two Oasis Forland Wells -- September 14, 2017

Quite a few things need to be sorted out to explain the production profile of:
  • 21657, runs north to south, 1,844, Oasis, Forland 28-33H, Siverston, t3/12; cum 351K 7/17; API - 33-053-03816; no evidence (yet) this well was refracked (not at FracFocus; not at NDIC), middle Bakken; 26 stages, 3.4 million lbs
See this post to see the number of things that need to be sorted out. I have not listed them, but they should be easy to figure out. I may post my thoughts later, but generally when I do, I show my ignorance, so maybe I won't. LOL.

Regardless, this well was producing about 2,000 bbls / month before it was taken off - line for about five months (less than half a year) or about 24,000 bbls / year. Over those five months of lost production, another 10,000 bbls or a total of 34,000 bbls of oil for one year plus five months.

After coming back on-line, this well has already produced 77,452 bbls of oil and the dreaded Bakken decline rate is yet to begin in earnest. Maybe with next month's reporting we will see that. Whatever.

A lot of things need to be sorted out or explained.

Disclaimer: I often make mistakes due to my irrational exuberance of the Bakken, so if this is important to you, go to the source. Do not pay any attention to me or this blog if this is important to you.

The Environmental Page, T+237 -- September 14, 2017

So much for all that global warming talk.

Hurricane Jose will be a tropical storm by Friday(tomorrow), hardly ever doing much as a hurricane.

Also, it appears all that talk about warmer Atlantic oceans fueling Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma: apparently just that -- talk. In fact, meteorologists with no agenda suggest that the ocean waters "were not much warmer" than usual, and the strength and cone of the hurricanes had more to do with wind patterns than with "warming" regardless of source of any warming.

Regardless of one's "beliefs", however, I think we all learned a lot more about "steering winds" after Hurricane Harvey. Until Hurricane Harvey I don't recall ever hearing about "steering winds," much less paying attention to them. See first comment for additional information on all of this.

Something to talk about.

Something To Talk About, Bonnie Raitt

The Energy And Market Page, T+237 -- September 14, 2017

WTI goes over $50, but closed at $49.74. On the other hand, the Dow closed at another record high.


September 18, 2017: was record gasoline demand reported last week an anomaly? Most likely. From EIA:
Hurricane Irma has created several issues with gasoline markets in Florida, both by prompting increased demand and disrupting the supply chain needed to deliver gasoline. Hurricane Irma made landfall in South Florida on September 10 and proceeded on a northwesterly path up the length of the state. Because of the evacuation of people in anticipation of Hurricane Irma, demand for transportation fuels and the logistical challenges in supplying Florida began before it made landfall. As Hurricane Irma approached, shipping traffic was diverted and ports closed, stopping the flow of petroleum products into Florida. People filling their gasoline tanks in anticipation of the storm resulted in a rapid increase in demand. In Hurricane Irma’s aftermath, demand is slowly returning to normal levels, allowing time for resupply to arrive and supply chains to adjust.
There are no refineries in Florida or pipelines connecting Florida to supply centers along the U.S. Gulf Coast or any other state. Therefore, unlike most other parts of the country, Florida is almost entirely supplied by marine movements of petroleum products from domestic and international sources.
Original Post 

Gasoline demand, source:

I find it absolutely remarkable that even after two epic storms hit two huge US states, shutting down "business as usual" for weeks, maybe months, and even before the "acute" stage is over, gasoline demand last week exceeded demand during same period one year ago, and if I recall correctly, US gasoline demand set an all-time record in 2016.

A Bridge Too Far
City Won't Rezone Nabors Property For Hotel
North of Williston, Near Love's

From The Williston Herald:
Williston City Commissioners voted to deny Nabors Drilling Technologies request to rezone its workforce housing camp to commercial so they can turn the property into a hotel. The vote split the commission 3 to 2.
The 10-acre property is just north of Love’s truck stop and was originally permitted by Williams County, which had zoned it commercial. It was brought into the city’s extra-territorial jurisdiction, which is an area still in the county but that comes under city zoning. During the review and rezoning process that came with that shift, the property was changed to light industrial.
It seems Nabors or the city not willing to put in necessary amenities for a re-zone:
The street fronting the Nabors property is gravel, however, and there is no plan to upgrade it.

Permian Basin NGLs Doubled In Past Four Years; May Double Again -- RBN Energy -- September 14, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553468199178

RBN Energy: update on Permian NGL
Natural gas liquids production in the Permian Basin has doubled in the past four years, and may well double again by 2022.
That rapid growth — driven by the pursuit of Permian crude oil and the resulting production of large volumes of NGL-rich associated gas — threatens to overwhelm the region’s existing gas processing and NGL-pipeline infrastructure.
This is a big deal, because if there’s not enough gas processing and NGL takeaway capacity out of the Permian, exploration and production companies (E&Ps) in the U.S.’s hottest shale play would be forced to slow the pace of their development.
One of the surer bets in an energy industry rife with uncertainty is that production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Permian will continue rising.
The hydrocarbon resources in the best parts of the Permian are extraordinary, and E&Ps active in the play have — after considerable effort — cracked the code to wringing vast volumes of crude and NGL-packed associated gas from new wells there at a remarkably low cost per barrel of oil equivalent (boe). But production growth can only occur if sufficient supporting infrastructure is in place to process and transport all the crude, gas and NGLs emerging from wellheads across the 70,000-square-mile Permian region.

Crude oil demand:
The IEA sees strongest global oil-demand growth in two years.
Global oil demand will climb this year by the most since 2015, the International Energy Agency said, amid stronger-than-expected consumption in Europe and the U.S.
The IEA, which advises most major economies on energy policy, increased its estimate for demand growth in 2017 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million a day, or 1.7 percent. The re-balancing of oversupplied world markets is continuing, it said, with OPEC supplies falling for the first time in five months and inventories of refined fuels in developed nations subsiding toward average levels.
EV revolution? Not so fast!
Electric cars won't save European auto makers as diesel sales drop. Manufacturers are focused instead on making more gasoline-powered vehicles to offset the shortfall.
As sales of diesel-powered cars dive in Europe, the Continent’s car makers, heavily invested in the technology, are scrambling to offset the shortfall.
Electric cars, often said to be the future of the industry, aren’t the solution—at least not yet.
High prices for electric cars, the scarcity and inconvenience of charging stations and the vehicles’ inability to travel long distances have put off drivers. Car makers, who dragged their feet for years on electric cars, also have few models in the market to lure diesel-driving consumers.  
“Why are we investing so much into a market that is a niche of a niche of a niche?” one person asked.
Mr. Müller said Volkswagen had to have its feet planted firmly on both sides of the field. It had to keep developing the combustion engine until the market for new technology takes off. “That’s why I say the technologies will have to coexist,” he said. “One day, electric vehicles will make up 25% of our sales.”
The Lego Page

I have resisted posting this note for the past month, but I can resist no longer.

This is most unusual. When Lego announces the availability of a high-demand set, it is not unusual for it to sell out almost immediately. Lego posts ""temporarily out of stock" for the item on its website, and generally, within a few weeks, some days, within a few days, the item is available again. Occasionally Lego places a limit on how many of one set a customer may purchase.

But this one has me scratching my head. I think this Lego set must be setting a record for how long it has been "temporarily unavailable."

I check every one to three days just out of curiosity. I was able to order one when it first became available. Today, it is still "temporarily unavailable."

It seems there are only a few possibilities: a) manufacturing glitch of some sort (incredibly unlikely); b) designers have noted a flaw (possibly); c) Lego questioning whether the set is "politically correct" (I would not know why, except some, I suppose, could confuse it with a North Korean ICBM); and/or, d) a licensing glitch with some company involved in design and/or manufacturing of the "real thing."

On a side note: the Disney Castle, often "temporarily unavailable" in the early days, is now easily available.

It will be interesting if Lego can keep this model in stock when it becomes available: the Millennium Falcon, officially the largest Lego set ever sold (7,541 pieces; $799 (free shipping). It becomes available in stores in October 1, 2017.