Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Another 20-Year Crude Oil Supply Analysis

The link will take you to the announcement but not the actual study. I have not looked at the linked story except enough to post/link it. However, the author does have his own blog -- which I have not visited -- but might be of interest.

New Whiting Corporate Presentation Is Posted ...

.... at the link to the website.

I don't see a lot that has changed from the June, 2012, presentation.

Don pointed this out: Whiting's wells in their Pronghorn Prospect seem to be every bit as good as their wells in their Sanish Prospect. 

Whiting has about 80,000 acres in the Sanish, about 120,000 acres in the Pronghorn.

Something tells me that their Lewis&Clark Prospect is also going to turn out to be a winner: 130,000 acres.

At the presentation, compare the pipeline infrastructure of the Sanish with the newly developing Pronghorn Prospect between Dickinson and Belfield. Also, remember the MDU refinery that's starting to get some press/traction in the Dickinson area.

I haven't been back to Williston for awhile, but quietly and not getting any press is the number of storage tanks going up, particularly southwest and south of Williston. With regard to a) the Canadian oil sands; b) the terminals east of the basin in Minnesota and farther east; c) the Bakken oil flowing south; d) condensate from the Bakken flowing north to Alberta; and, e) activity in the Baker (Montana) area, it doesn't take a lot of imagination to start thinking of the storage depots that might start sprouting up in the Williston Basin. I have no idea how Cushing got to be what it is today, but my hunch is that it there was no grand design in the very beginning. It just sorta happened.

I am pretty sure they won't be building storage sites in Nebraska.

Some Links From Around the Internets -- Not Necessarily Related to The Bakken

I'm traveling so I'm missing a lot of the news. I have not seen television in the past five or six days, but am now sitting in an air-conditioned lobby with CNBC on in the background. I see oil is up today and the talking head says tensions are rising in the Mideast.

This is the NY Times view of the world in that part of the world: I see the Nobel peace prize winner is sending troops back into the Gulf:
The United States has quietly moved significant military reinforcements into the Persian Gulf to deter the Iranian military from any possible attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz and to increase the number of fighter jets capable of striking deep into Iran if the standoff over its nuclear program escalates. 
But I see in the 2nd paragraph, these moves were "long-planned" -- probably under the Bush administration:
The deployments are part of a long-planned effort to bolster the American military presence in the gulf region, in part to reassure Israel that in dealing with Iran, as one senior administration official put it last week, “When the president says there are other options on the table beyond negotiations, he means it.”
He means it.


This is why I have difficulty with mainstream media's view of global warming:
If you want a glimpse of some of the worse of global warming, scientist suggest taking a look at US weather in recent weeks.

Horrendous wildfires, Oppressive heat waves. Devastating droughts. Flooding from giant deluges. And a powerful freak storm called a derecho.

These are the kinds of extremes climate scientists have predicted will come with climate change, although it's far too early to say that is the cause. Now will they say global warming is the reason 3,215 daily high temperature records were set in the month of June.
Most of those records were set in the '30s when global warming was not even a consideration. In fact, Time magazine was talking of a coming ice age back in the '70s.

If you want to talk about global disasters go back to the age of volcanoes in early human civilization in the Mediterranean. The sinking of Atlantis comes to mind. Now that was some "flooding from giant deluges."

And much later, the warming spell during the age of the Vikings.

But if you are still inclined to take the mainstream media's word for it, check this out: total US CO2 emissions will probably fall to levels not seen since 1991, and they would fall further if faux environmentalists would get trucks and trains hauling oil off the road by supporting the safest way to transport oil: pipelines. The link is to CarpeDiem.com.  Go to the link to read commentary from others. I always enjoy the comments.

Random Note: Decreased Days of Production -- Brooklyn Oil Field

I wish I had time to do this sort of analysis; I apologize. I just don't have the time.

A reader noticed this, looking at one of my favorite fields, the Brooklyn field:
Over the last 90 days about half of the wells have had a significant reduction in days of production.

Helena production days: 22/10/16/24 (May/April/March/February)
Topeka production days: 19 (May)
Bismark production days: 19/26/21 (May/April/March)
Mildred production days: 24/7/16 (May/April/March)
Rolf production days: 25/22/14 (May/April/March)
Gjorven production days: 15 (May)
Rennerfelt production days: 9 (May)
Hartford production days: 30/11 (May/April)
Barney production days: 26/4/19 (May/April/March)
Charleston production days: 13/25/29 (May/April/March)
Boise's production days: 1/15/11/27 (May/April/March/February)
The reader wonders whether it has to do with pricing of WTI. 

Readers are welcome to comment.

Off The Net For Awhile

Continental Resources Moving a Rig To South Dakota

A huge "thank you" to a reader for alerting me to this: Continental Resources is moving one of their rigs, currently drilling in Bowman County, to South Dakota.

For newbies, South Dakota is the state just south of North Dakota. South Dakota is known for its remarkably warm winters -- my dad grew up in Newell, South Dakota, near Rapid City, south of Belfield, North Dakota, and he talks of the "South Dakota banana belt" all the time.

I assume CLR is moving the rig to South Dakota to drill and not to continue south back to the Mississippi Lime in Kansas, or the Eagle Ford, south of San Antonio.

If he does move the rig that far south, he should move the rig to the center of the Sand Hills (alternate spelling: Sandhills) in Nebraska just to scare folks. Not to drill. Just to set it up it beside the highway in the middle of the Sand Hills. Maybe roll out some 36-inch pipe along the road just for the fun of it.

The rig is Cyclone 1 drilling #22856.

Seven (7) New Permits -- July 3, 2012

Yesterday's daily activity report was delayed (NDIC server maintenance); it is posted now.

Today's daily activity report, July 3, 2012:

New permits:
  • Operators: CLR (4), WLL, XTO, Timberline
  • Fields: Brooklyn (Williams), Midway (Williams), Big Stick (Billings), Wildcat
Timberline has the wildcat.

CLR has permits for four (4) more wells in Brooklyn. This is a very interesting story to say the least. 

On top of the other 160+ wells transferred operatorship to Enduro, Ward-Williston Company transferred operatorship of another 14 wells to Enduro Operating, LLC.

Wells coming off confidential list:
  • 20995, 227, WPX Energy, Blue Buttes 3-21H, Squaw Creek, t3/12; cum 27K 5/12;
  • 21941, drl, Newfield, Inga 150-99-11-2-2H, Tobacco Garden, s 1/12;
In addition, eight more producing wells were completed, including:
20252, 1,078, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 148-94-19D-18-1H,
20253, 1,280, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 148-94-30A-31-1H,
21080, 958, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 148-94-30A-31-2H,
21829, 840 (no typo), OXY USA, Elroy Kadrmas 2-10-3H-143-96,
19801, 1,045, XTO, FBIR Huntsmedicine 24X-8,
21617, 24 (no typo) Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 18-19-158N-99W,

Harold Hamm - CLR/CEO/CNBC --

I haven't had a chance to see the video yet. Don sent me the link.

I'm traveling and haven't watched television in six days now. The first two days were tough; now I miss it not at all.

Oil Tours Available in the Bakken: Audience -- Investors


February 2, 2013: update in the Dickinson Press.
Dawa, a professional services and communications firm based in Williston, Dawa began offering narrated tours of a sizable chunk of the Bakken last year. Available for anyone with $325, Bakken Field Tours are offered several times per year during warm weather months beginning in May and feature a chance to get an up close look at the operating areas of the northwest North Dakota Oil Patch.
Each tour begins with a three-hour briefing about, among other topics, the history of the Bakken. During colder months — when travel on Oil Patch roads is unpredictable — several longer versions of the briefings are offered in Williston beginning later this month.
“People want to know and understand what’s going on out here,” said Dawa President Jeff Zarling. “We cover everything from the discovering of oil in North Dakota to the development of the Bakken shale play. We get pretty in-depth.”
Tours originate from Dickinson or Williston and last for roughly eight hours, including lunch at a Bakken crew camp. Zarling said a wide variety of people have taken advantage of the tours so far.
Original Post

Link here to Minot Daily News.
DAWA Solutions Group is offering an 11-hour Bakken Field Tour bus trip through parts of the oil field, including a three-hour educational session the night before the tour. The $325 tour does not include the price of a hotel room, and is aimed at investors, community leaders and developers, although the tours will likely also attract tourists, too.
DAWA Solutions Group has an office kitty-corner from the CENEX service station in Williston that must be the busiest little station in the world at 6:00 - 7:00 a.m. daily; on 2nd Street West, I believe.

I could be wrong on all of this; it's been awhile since I've been in Williston.

Safer In the Oil Patch?

Link here to InsideClimate News/Dickinson Press.com:

North Dakota attorney general says crime in oil patch is no worse than rest of North Dakota, maybe safer.

Three things I keep coming back to:
1) if you aren't working in the oil patch, you probably aren't sticking around (no housing, tough winters)
2) if you are working, you don't have a lot of time to get into trouble
3) if you are working, odds are you value your job and don't want to risk losing it
4) if you are working, odds are your boss values his company and mandates drug testing
5) if you are working, odds are you can pretty much buy what you need/want in North Dakota
Okay, five, but I was going to lump some of those together.

Energy Links at Independent Stock Analysis

Link here to ISA.

RBN Energy: "The Marcellus Changes Everything" -- Part III

Link here to RBN Energy, Part II and Part III.

Several data points due to shale gas from the Marcellus within the next couple of years:
  • imports from Canada into the northeastern US will cease
  • imports from the Midwest will gradually back out
  • inflows from the Gulf region could diminish/halt