Sunday, April 8, 2012

Black Hills Conference, May 2 - 3

Prepare for spill-over effects of the Bakken.

Link here to Rapid City Journal.
A conference aimed at preparing the Black Hills area for coping with the Bakken oil fields will feature speakers from four different states.

Black Hills Vision, a regional economic development organization, is sponsoring the Black Hills Bakken Conference May 2 and May 3 at the Spearfish Holiday Inn Convention Center.
Conference website.

For Investors Only: When Retirees Bail; Will Stock Market Fail? -- LA Times

Link here.

Some data points at the end of the article:

  • seniors 65 and older had a median net worth of $170,494 in 2009
  • measured in 2010 dollars, the 65-and-older group's median net worth was up 42% from 1984 (despite the bust of 2000; and the housing and stock market meltdown in 2008 [or whenever it was]) 
Next generation:
  • the 35-to-44 age group had a median net worth of just $39,601 in 2009
  • measured in 2010 dollars, the younger group's median net worth was down 44% from 1984 [due to the bust of 2000; and the housing and stock market meltdown in 2008])
This is the "median."  It would have been interesting to see the "mean" of the seniors group below the median; and the "mean" of the seniors group above the median. My hunch is that the latter would be staggering.

Now, the thesis of the article: if retires bail out of the stock market, will that result in a flagging market?

The article makes one assumption with regard to demographics: the US has an aging population going forward --

But the 800-pound gorilla not mentioned in the article (at least I didn't see it): the overseas investor.

If you are a citizen of one of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, or Spain) investor, where do you invest?

If you are one of the thousands of multimillionaires in China, Russia, and North Dakota, where will you invest?

Most retirees who have a net worth of more than $500,000 (not including home values) will continue to grow their investments. For those retirees who need to live on their traditional and Roth IRAs, younger workers will make up the difference.

It is interesting that the writer, from California, was looking at the wrong asset. My hunch is that housing will continue to be a challenge. Retirees are not about buying larger and more expensive McMansions. And the majority of PIIGS investors investing in the US stock market will not be buying California real estate.

With regard to retirees bailing, I have no concern about the market.

Week 14: April 1 -- April 7, 2012

Williston: Fastest growing micro-area in the entire USA -- US Census Bureau

Williston's Amtrak station: fastest growing US train depot

ONEOK to invest another $150 million in North Dakota (Divide County)

$8.5 million for new lanes on US-85 between Williston and Watford City

Preferred Sands, LLC: Deus ex machina for idled refineries in the east

Citi's Energy 2020

Record active drilling rigs: 211 

Takeaway capacity still a problem for the Bakken

Update on American Eagle/Eternal Energy

Legacy Oil & Gas: Spearfish outperforming

Whiting's plans for its Pronghorn Prospect -- a reader

Three new refineries in North Dakota; proposed; update

Hawkeye oil field: vertical Madison and horizontal Bakken wells

Some incredible Oasis wells

A look at the SM Energy wells in Poe field, heart of the Bakken

Random update of the EOG Austin wells in the Parshall

Update on OXY USA wells in the Cabernet

Update on Chesapeake in southwest North Dakota

Abraxas update

Example of new spacing issues

Bakken confidential wells by operator: 1,700

Montana update

Rigzone: Saudi hypocrisy, our gullibility

Carpe Diem: most energy efficient economy in history

Williston Wireline update: 7 hotels permitted in Williston in 2011; new eateries in Williston; Trappers Kettle sold; Alaska oil patch workers moving to North Dakota

Flashback: July 8, 2008

The following note was placed on my Yahoo!Calendar back in 2008. It popped up today, as it does every three months to remind me where we were back in 2008 and what Boone was prognosticating.
July 8, 2008: Boone Pickens said oil will trade in $150 range. His prediction came just as oil was falling; it fell $8 in two days; down to $131.  But he says oil will stay in $150 range; and he says if supply/demand balances out, could see $100 oil in two years (2010).
Boone was talking about WTI, I assume. So, all this talk about the high price of oil needs to be put in perspective, I suppose.

On this date, April 8, 2008, WTI was $105, virtually unchanged from today.

Easter Sunday! And This Is The Op-Ed in The Regional Paper, Southwest North Dakota

Link here to Debbie Downer.

Of all the things to talk about on Easter Sunday in North Dakota: a smelly lagoon. Editor's advice: minimize running the tap water.

Well, on second thought, maybe not so bad:

Syria: Sabbath Massacre

Ethiopia: 2.8 million people need emergency food aid

Tulsa, Oklahoma: new race war?

Detroit, Michigan: bankruptcy looms; $12 billion long-term debt

Debbie Downer needs to get out and about more; do a bit more reading; count her blessings.

Glendive, Montana -- Getting Ready for Another Oil Boom -- Not The Bakken (?)


Later: see first comment. A reader suggests the interest in the Glendive area may be the Red River formation and the "false Bakken." I talk about the "false Bakken" here

Original Post

Link here to the Billings Gazette

Data points:
  • Glendive -- population, 5,000
  • Glendive is 100 miles west of Dickinson; both are located on I-94
  • both are served by BNSF railroad
  • last boom ended 30 years ago
  • now, rentals scarce, pricey; home prices skyrocketing
  • two new housing subdivisions and a hotel are under construction
  • fast food restaurants setting records
  • construction bans along the Yellowstone River floodplain limits construction
  • like Sidney and Bainville, utilities are being maxed out

Go to the link for the rest of a very fascinating story.

The article does not mention which formation is being targeted (unless I missed it). It seems Glendive is at the southwestern edge of the Williston Basin. Since I don't follow Montana side of the border I can't add much. Maybe later.

Another Great Source For Information on the Bakken: RBN Energy

Original Post

The site requires that you register with valid e-mail account, so I assume some folks may be hesitant, but there does not appear to be any downside. A reader alerted me to the side.

At the moment, the first story regards the Bakken, and leads with this:
About five weeks ago Bakken crude oil prices nose-dived almost $25/bbl in a few days.  In a posting titled A Perfect Storm in the Bakken we looked at the geography of flows through Clearbrook and Guernsey, the behavior of regional prices and the causes of the price crash.  
The analysis is excellent and includes graphs.

A huge "thank you" to the reader sending me this resource.