Friday, February 16, 2018

Week 7: February 11, 2018 -- February 17, 2018

From my perspective, this may be the biggest energy story of the week, perhaps the month, possibly the year:  the US is already the world's swing producer. Along with that story this one: OPEC's shale problem (Zeits).

Also, note: Jet fuel requirements to soar

The Top Bakken Stories

MRO reports a Three Forks first bench well with an IP of 6,204 bbls (accurate?)
December production: 1.18 million bopd
Hess to spend nearly half its entire 2018 CAPEX in North Dakota 
Enerplus has permits for a ten-well lizard well

Natural gas:
Bakken's natural gas production setting records

Bakken economy:
Williston high school requires an addition; two new elementary schools needed in Boomtown
Williston home short tsunami coming

Bakken crude oil assay 
NDGS has an update on Three Forks, second bench

Random Update Of Two XTO Wells In Lost Bridge After Neighboring Well Fracked -- February 16, 2018

From an earlier post:
August 28, 2017: check #19960, #18189 at end of 2017. Neighboring wells just fracked (31199, 31200, 31201, 31202)
  • 31199, 1,838, XTO, Kaye Federal 13X-3H, Lost Bridge, t5/61 (sic, probably 6/17); cum 94K 12/17; (#19960, #18189); update here, #19960 with huge jump in production; #18189 still off-line;
So, let's check #18189 and #19960.

#18189, has just come back on-line; too early to say what it might do once it's back up to speed; no evidence at FracFocus that this well has been re-fracked, API: 33-025-00943;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Now, take a look at #19960:
  • 19960, 1,666, XTO, Kaye 43X-4, API: 33-025-01222; Lost Bridge, t12/11; cum 509K 12/17; no evidence in FracFocus that it has been re-fracked and no sundry form suggesting it has been re-fracked; FracFocus link here. See if you can find the jump in production; to me, it is so huge, this well must have been re-fracked, but no data to suggest that (yet), although initial jump dropped back quickly; maybe just a one-month peculiarity after coming back on-line (I certainly can't explain it but nice for the mineral owners):
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update On A BR Dodge Well -- February 16, 2018


June 2, 2018: production data updated -- no sundry form and FracFocus does not indicate this well was refracked.
  • 17200, 829, BR, Dodge 1-17H, Dimmick Lake, t6/08; cum 225K 12/17; recent production -- see if you can spot the jump in production, see graphic here:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Original Post 

The original note:
May 9, 2017: follow #17200; two rigs in the same section drilling new wells near this one -- a BR well. Update here. Update: January 30, 2018: two wells to the west have been completed and reported; the wells to the east are all on SI/NC status.
Now, rechecking this well after neighboring wells have been fracked:
  • 17200, 829, BR, Dodge 1-17H, Dimmick Lake, t6/08; cum 225K 12/17; recent production -- see if you can spot the jump in production, see graphic here:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Huge IP For An MRO Three Forks First Bench Well -- Is It A Typo?-- February 16, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs563941136185

No new permits.

Nine permits renewed:
  • Petro-Hunt (5): five USA permits McKenzie County
  • Enerplus (3): a Jupiter permit; a Curve permit; and a Deuce permit, all in Dunn County
  • Whiting: a Privratsky permits in Stark County
Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31785, 995, XTO, Lund 21X-17E, Siverston, t12/17; cum 7K after 18 days;
  • 31786, 1,826, XTO, Lund 21X-17A, Siverston, t12/17; cum 32K after 24 days;
  • 31787, 1,528, XTO, Lund 21X-17F, Siverston, t12/17; cum 22K after 24 days;
  • 31788, 1,401, XTO, Lund 21X-17B, Siverston, t12/17; cum 21K after 21 days;
  • 33535, 6,204, MRO, Arkin 44-12TFH, hard to believe it's not a typo, but this is what the sundry form shows; Arkin 44-12TFH, Bailey, 4 sections; Three Forks B1, 45 stages; 6 million lbs; t1/18; cum --
  • 33853, 758, Lime Rock,Hansen B 18-19-1H, Stanley, t12/17; cum 19K after first full month;
Comments re: #33535 --
  • its sister well, #33534, Bronett 1407H, is still SI/NC
  • an older well parallels #33535 and is off-line; most likely due to Arkin and Bronett being fracked
We'll come back later -- in a few months -- look at this well near Arkin/Bronett
  • 16993, 125, MRO, Buehner 44-12H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 176K 12/17; off-line as of 12/17; producing only 900 bbls/month prior to that;  
Farther to the east is another well that has been taken off-line while Arkin/Bronett are fracked; come back later to see this well also:
  • 17797, 499, MRO, Lazy De 24-7H, t8/09; cum 333K 12/17; this well had a huge mump back in 1/15; I assume it was re-fracked; MRO re-fracked a lot of Bailey wells;

Active Rigs Down To 55, But WTI Up; Largest US Lease Sale In History Announced; Winning Numbers For Supermarket Monopoly Have Been Posted -- February 16, 2018

FWIW: from a government press release --
In support of President Donald J. Trump's ‘America-First Offshore Energy Strategy,’ Deputy Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt announced that the Department will offer 77.3 million acres offshore Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida for oil and gas exploration and development.
The region-wide lease sale, which is the largest in U.S. history, is scheduled for March 21, 2018, and will include all available unleased areas in federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
In 2017, offshore leases helped the Department raise a billion dollars more in revenue for the year than was made off energy revenues in 2016.
GDP: link here -- 
Latest forecast: 3.2 percent — February 16, 2018.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 3.2 percent on February 16, unchanged from February 14. T
he nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth fell from -0.6 percent to -1.7 percent on February 15 after the industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The nowcast increased to 0.6 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Can't keep up? Halliburton says sand delivery delays would impact their 1Q18 earnings. 

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553941136185

RBN Energy: the rejuvenation of natural gas processing economics, part 4.

Legacy Fund: deposits are reported here. The data is posted monthly; the most recent deposit was reported for January, 2018. Just for the fun of it, I'm trying out an algorithm to predict the next deposit. Having just run the algorithm, here are my estimates for the February, 2018, Legacy Fund deposit:
  • high end: $49,392,838
  • low end: $41,245,734
  • average (most likely): $47,121,013.55

Price of Bakken
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Price WTI
Projection February 2018
High end
as of February 16


Another, much simpler formula, suggests the February deposit will be closer to $51,407,066

Last month I was off by 5% (on the low side). In January, 2018, the deposit was $46,242,885.80.

Supermarket Monopoly

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. The information comes from various, unofficial, amateurish sources. This is for my own benefit only. Do not quote me on any of this. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

For most prizes, one needs to have four or five winning numbers. For the two biggest prizes ($1 million cash; $1 million vacation home), one needs eight winning numbers.

The game began about February 1, 2018.

We now know the "winning number" needed for almost all the prizes. For a few prizes, it's still down to two winning numbers:

$1 million cash, eight numbers needed: 108AH

$1 million vacation home, eight numbers needed: 110BB or 116BH

Most of the prizes below need four winning numbers; some need five. The "winning numbers" in red bold:

$25 grocery gift card: 119CC
$50 grocery gift card: 121DA
$100 cash: 126EB
$100 grocery gift card: 132FD
$200 cash: 135GC
$200 family picnic: 138HB
$300 spa day: 144JD
$500 grocery gift card: 145KA
$1,000 computer: 149LA
$1,000 getaway: 154MB
$1,000 gift card: 159NC
$1,000 cash: 164OD
$1,500 gas grill: 166PB
$2,600 movies: 172QD
$5,000 groceries: 173RA
$5,000 cash: 179SC
$100,000 car: 181TA or 182TB
$40,000 car: 190VE
$25,000 kitchen makeover: 193WC or 194WD
$20,000 college tuition: 199XD or 200XE
$10,000 cash: 203YB or 206YE
$7,500 vacation: 207ZA or 209ZC
$25 gift card: 213AB
$25 cash: 218BC
$20 cash: 220CA
$15 gift card: 227DD
$10 gift card: 228 EA
$10 cash: 235FD
$5 gift card: 237GB (new card: 236GA, 238GC, 239GD)
$5 cash: 242HC (new card: 240HA; 241HB; 243HD)

The Apple Page

On January 20, 2018, about a month ago, I came up with my "price target" for AAPL: $193.

Today I see that the consensus price target for AAPL is $191.
The bet on Apple could prove quite lucrative for Berkshire as Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg have an average price target of $191 a share, nearly 12% above its current level. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any job, travel, relationship, financial, or investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.