Monday, October 4, 2021

ConConchCOP Primed For Profit In The Permian -- David Messler -- October 4, 2021

I track the ConConchCOP story here. Wow, this story certainly has legs. 

Now, today, another article on same story. Link to one of my favorite columnists: David Messler.  Archived.

  • European oil majors are working hard to cut their emissions by shedding assets as they attempt to become energy majors
  • One of the highest-profile cases of this transition so far was the sale of Shell’s Delaware acreage to ConocoPhillips
  • The market has responded by rewarded COP with a 25% increase so far this week, but the real value is yet to be realized

A Petro-Hunt Hartman Well In Little Knife Finally Being Reported -- October 4, 2021

The well:

  • 36079, conf-->loc-->loc/NC, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5B-8-2H, Little Knife, 
    • sister well on this pad:
      • 20860, 540, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-1H, Little Knife, t7/12; cum 138K 11/20; a stripper well as of 2020; 27 stages; 3.3 million lbs proppant; a lousy well from the very beginning; cum 144K 6/21;

Initial production for the new well, #36079, full production history:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Amber Renee - R Is Finally Drilled, Completed, And First Production Reports -- October 4, 2021


October 6, 2021: #18408, the original Amber Renee. A monster well, off line for quite some time. Apparently a new sidetrack lateral has been drilled or will be drilled for #18408. In a February, 2019, sundry form, the well is TA on an annual basis, and future use of the "wellbore will be to sidetrack and complete new lateral once commodity prices improve." Remains off line 8/21.

Original Post

Finally after what seems to be decades, this "R" well has finally been drilled, completed, and is starting to report.

Previous status:

  • December 3, 2020: #36887 (33-061-04580; Amber Renee 25-36H-R; Sanish) and #36888  (33-061-04581; Sophia Drake 25-36H-R; Sanish)-- update here; see this note; still no production data, 1/21; drl/NC; last checked, 6/21; 

Now, 8/21:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The original Amber Renee (see this post for more):
  • 18408, TA/1,945, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H, Sanish, t2/10; cum 822K 12/13; note first few months of production of this well compared to the new Amber Renee, noting particularly, natural gas mcf:

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog About The Bakken -- A Very Old Well Jumps From 1,000 Bbls/Month To 36,000 Bbls/Month -- October 4, 2021

Note: this well was drilled more than a decade ago; drilled / completed in 2010.  Hubbert's Theory says once a well starts to decline, it never reverses course. This is a very, very old well. The file report does not suggest it was re-fracked but I wouldn't be surprised if it were; sometimes paperwork / NDIC files lag what is happening in the field.

Although some might consider this "rare," it is not an atypical phenomenon in the Bakken. 

But look at this. Imagine a small mom-and-pop unit with interest in this well. I doubt they care why; just amazed at what they are seeing. 

Full production for this well is posted here.

The well:

  • 18880, 129, MRO, Everett Fisher USA 41-6H, Reunion Bay, t7/10; cum 396K 3/21; off line 4/21; numerous wells in the area being fracked; remains off line 6/21; cum 432K 8/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

NDIC Has Started Posting Production Data For August, 2021; CLR Reports A DUC -- October 4, 2021

"They've" been reading the blog: the road to New England -- drastic rate increases for electricity and natural gas. Link here. The article at the link was posted October 3, 2021; my story, same subject, much easier to understand, was post a couple of days earlier. ISO New England

New England Patriots: speaking of New England. Last night's NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Tampa Bay (TB) Buccaneers / Tom Brady (TB) was the second most-watched SNF game ever. 

At a Total Audience Delivery of 28.5 million, on NBC, Peacock and various other digital platforms, the Bucs 19-17 win over the Pats in an often very wet prime time is only topped by the 30.3 million who tuned in for SNF on December 30, 2012. That Cowboys vs Washington battle for the NFC East title snared 30.3 million, to be the fifth most watched Sunday NFL game ever.

Say what! To save the world, the Norwegians are going to discourage folks from buying EVs? Say what? Norway is said to be considering imposing a luxury tax on high-end EV models. The big question is this: with all the money Norway is making selling oil off its coast why do they even need to tax anything? And isn't "high-end EV" redundant? Is there such a thing as a low-end EV, one that can be parked inside a garage?

Back to the Bakken

Bakken production: it appears that the NDIC has published production data for each producing well for August, 2021. I'll start updating wells of interest ASAP.

WTI: closed up 2.3%; up $1.73; closed at $77.61. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2711586459

Two new permits, #38596 - #38597, inclusive:

  • Operator: Ovintiv
  • Field: South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Ovintiv has permits for two wells in South Tobacco Garden, 
    • lot 1 section 4-149-99, sited between 462 and  442 FNL and 444 FEL;

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

  • 36581, PNC/drl, CLR, Pasadena Federal 12-11H1, Banks, comment: the scout ticket says the status of this well is PNC. It appears CLR was notified that the permit would expire but renewed the permits. One day of production, 8/21 with minimal production.

For The Archives -- Nobel Prize For Medicine And/Or Physiology Announced -- Two Americans -- October 4, 2021

Link here.

American scientists David Julius and Ardem Patapoutian win the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for their discoveries of receptors for temperature and touch.

It will be worth reading about their discoveries.

The Wave

Have you all seen this iconic photo and wondered what it was all about or whether you could visit?


The Wave is the premier photographic destination in the US Southwest.

It is located in the Coyote Buttes North area of the Utah-Arizona border. In addition to The Wave, Coyote Buttes North contains many other spectacular rock formations. These include The Second Wave, The Alcove, Top Rock Arch, Melody Arch and the Grotto, Sand Cove, and Fatali's Boneyard.

The Wave is best photographed from mid-morning to early afternoon so as to minimize the extensive shadows; the other areas listed above are best photographed mid-late afternoon.

A permit issued by the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is required to see The Wave.

Only 64 people per day (48 on-line and 16 walk-in) are allowed in the area and demand far exceeds supply. During the most popular months (April, May, September, October) there can be over 300 people applying for the sixteen walk-in daily permits. In the other months you usually have much less than a 50% chance of getting one at the daily lottery. Your chances are better if you're going alone, or in December - February.

A six-mile round trip hike in required to get to The Wave.

Since there is no trail to The Wave you should be able to use a map and compass or GPS to help with navigation. The BLM provides a map with your permit and instructions on getting to The Wave, and there are a small number of cairns on the way.

Over the past five years five people have died on the way to/from The Wave.

If you are not sure about your navigation skills I strongly suggest you hike in with a guide or a friend with these skills. Do not go alone. If you use a GPS be sure to mark the Wirepass trailhead and other key points along the route. Stay with your party. Four of the five fatalities were heat related, so if you go in the warmer months bring plenty of water, at least four liters, and preferably more.

While in Utah this past summer, our middle granddaughter, Olivia, entered her name in the lottery for a permit. 

She won. LOL.

She scored a permit for herself and one adult. The permit is good for one day, which just happens to be this Saturday, October 9, 2021.  So, Olivia and her dad will be flying to Utah on Friday, driving to the site and hiking "the wave."

In kindergarten, she entered one of those crazy contests in which one wins a prize for guessing the number of "candy corn" candies in the jar. She won. 

I've asked Olivia to start buying me lottery tickets.

Current Events -- The Market -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- October 4, 2021

Much of the following was in a "private" note sent to another reader a few minutes ago. It is simply some ramblings, some trolling, and some "playing devil's advocate." Some is "tongue in cheek."

I could not possibly be in a better mood. This is an incredible market for someone like me who has two portfolios: one portfolio managed by experts of which I have absolutely no control. That portfolio includes my pension and my retirement accounts. The second portfolio is those individual equities I "manage" by myself. The mix is probably about 90 - 10: 90% of my estate is professionally managed or out of my control; 10% is all my responsibility.

The "10-percent-portfolio is very, very overweighted in oil. You can see why I couldn't possibly be in a better mood today. WTI is surging. My hunch: the excitement in oil and natural gas is not going to end overnight. 

The only "FANG" stock that affects my "10-percent-portfolio" is AAPL.And right now AAPL, as a stock, is in serious trouble. More on that later.

Meanwhile, the "90-percent-portfolio" has a lot of technology. Technology got way ahead of itself and what's going on today represents a great buying opportunity. And smarter folks than I will be doing that.

Now back to AAPL: I haven't read / heard why AAPL is falling so much today. There are three possibilities:

  • simply got caught up with all the other technology companies; says nothing about underlying value of Apple, Inc; or,
  • Apple is going to have major supply chain problems short term and their best quarter -- the October-December quarter is going to be horrendous; or,
  • Beijing is about ready to "Hong-Kong" Taiwan.

I don't care what the reason is. Whatever the reason is, it means a buying opportunity for those interested.

The fact that there are no stories specific to AAPL yet today, suggests most talking heads would simply attribute this to "reason #1" -- simply getting caught up with all the other technology companies. What's Cathie Wood's ARRK doing. Before I look, here's how I see ARRK:

  • under $120: accumulate
  • under $118: back up the truck, as Jim Cramer would say
  • under $115: will never happen.

So, what's ARKK doing? Today, ARKK is down 3.6%; down $4.00; now trading at $107. LOL. My hunch: ARKK is going to be a lot higher than $125 a year from now.

Be greedy when others are fearful. Me? I will watch this very, very closely.

A digression: Beijing is about read to "Hong-Kong" Taiwan.

I don't care. 

As far as I'm concerned, this would be a good thing. It's sort of like Afghanistan. Everyone knows "it's" going to happen; it's just a matter of when and how.

The analogy: We all knew that once the decision was made to leave Afghanistan, Taliban would take over. Even the Pentagon said that, but thought it would take up to a year, rather than a week, as it did in Afghanistan.

Taiwan? It's just a matter of time: when and how. 

A lot of fake news. This "show of force" occurs every anniversary of independence, so it probably means nothing but yet the press suggests this is something new. But let's say it means something. What would be the next step for Beijing if it plans to "Hong-Kong" Taiwan?

That's simple.

The other day, I think I read that about 92 fighters flew over Taiwanese airspace. Today it was 52 aircraft. Big deal. They do this every year.

Link here

But what could Beijing do that would be different but short of dropping bombs or firing missiles? Land their jets on Taiwan air strips, do a 180° turn on the ground, and then take off again. And then wait to see what Taiwan or Resident Biden would do.

Spoiler alert: nothing.

So, the "Hong-Konging" of Taiwan could have occurred under the previous administration resulting in a lot of bellicose tweets, or it could happen under the present US administration with maybe a speech of some sort from Resident Biden. But as far as I'm concerned, I have no dog in that fight.

A lot of Taiwan manufacturing would move elsewhere, and a lot of it might move to Texas. Isn't TSMC building a huge plant here in Texas?

Break, break.

FANG vs oil and gas.

Quick: which pays better dividends.

Hint: it's not FANG. 

For a retiree -- with little free cash flow --  who likes to invest, dividends are nice. Oil and natural gas companies are going to be really be increasing their dividends (and share buybacks) this year. 

Break, break. 

Wow, I had a great four-day weekend. 

My destination was 688 miles away, where I would meet other extended family members. 

I rented a car from Enterprise -- the only folks from whom I rent vehicles -- and drove straight through, leaving at 12:20 p.m. on Thursday afternoon and arriving at 10:30 p.m. that same late evening. I stopped once to fill up with gasoline and a quick bathroom break. Much of the trip was 80-mph on the interstate.

All day Friday, Saturday and half of Sunday with extended family.

On the way home I took a fairly big detour and visited Shiloh Battleground / National Cemetery. That site was never on my bucket list (we've talked about bucket lists before) but I was so close, I couldn't pass up the opportunity. 

Shiloh would have little interest for most folks under the age of seventy. But, if you are seventy years or older and have any interest in US history, Shiloh is a "must-visit"if you are in the area (within a two-hour drive).

Interestingly enough, there are very few "touristy" spots in the immediate area suggesting that "no-one" visits this historical site. I would like to take a lawn chair and sit on the grounds for two full days, staying at a local bed-and-breakfast overnight. Do nothing but sit in the lawn chair, read, think, meditate. 

By the way, while on my four-day cross-country trip I met a "Susan" from Henderson, Nevada, who was fifty-eight years old. How do I know? She said she had her son, her only child, at age forty, and later in the conversation it came up that he was too young to gamble in Las Vegas. He is eighteen. So that made her fifty-eight. It turns out one of her favorite "things to do" when traveling is to take guided tours (or, if not available, self-guided tours of cemeteries). After seeing Shiloh, I understand why.

Traffic was so heavy on the interstate(s) -- I tried to avoid the interstate on the way home -- I wondered what traffic will be like when "we" are "back to normal." LOL. Perhaps we need five years of "lock down" -- we've discussed this before.

It was refreshing to see, this past weekend, that a whole region in the US had essentially taken the same approach Sweden took with regard to the pandemic. Interestingly, while the rest of the US experienced two or three surges (the delta variant being the third or fourth surge for most of the US), this area of the country is now experiencing its first surge. And this "first" surge is already dissipating. And it was a serious surge -- and interestingly, no one talked about Covid, and I don't even think I heard it mentioned on the evening local news. If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

I departed Shiloh at 5:00 p.m. and headed home: some 700 miles back. I drove straight through, all night, arriving home exactly at 7:00 a.m., just in time to meet Sophia at the bus stop and seeing her off to school.

Break, break.

Hey, "pat on the back." Some time ago, I compared three independents in the Permian. I clearly showed that of the three why Devon was my favorite.

Today on CNBC it was singled out, noting that it was up 147% -- or something like that -- over one year.

Devon is one of several companies in which I "park" money, selling shares in DVN when I see better opportunities, unlike something like SRE and UNP which I only accumulate, never sell. SRE is struggling right now -- the California concern -- but UNP is doing nicely on a day the rest of the market is falling, with the exception of oil and natural gas.

Will stop for now.

In progress. 

The opening scene for season one, episode three, "Earth Day," Nine Perfect Strangers opened with this soundtrack:

Link here.

November, 2021, Hearing Dockets -- CO2 Storage Cases

Link here.

All cases from the Milton R. Young Station, Minnkota Power Cooperative.

These are cases, not permits:

  • 29029: 41 sections for storage in Oliver County. Storage in Broom Creek formation.
  • 29030: 41 sections for storage in Oliver County. Storage in Broom Creek formation.
  • 29031: 41 sections for storage in Oliver County. Storage in Broom Creek formation.
  • 29032: 41 sections for storage in Oliver County. Storage in Broom Creek formation.
  • 29033: 41 sections for storage in Oliver County. Storage in Deadwood formation.
  • 29034: 41 sections for storage in Oliver County. Storage in Deadwood formation.

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; WTI Hits A Seven-Year High -- October 4, 2021

Breaking: WTI has just gone over $77. At $76.99 a barrel, WTI hit the highest in more than seven years. Brent is trading, again, above $80/bbl. Later, mid-morning: WTI surges three percent. Traders can do the math. See below. WTI breaks through $78. Who.hoo.

Resident Biden: will announce a new committee to look into high price of gasoline. It looks like he was correct to kill the Keystone XL. That pipeline would not have been big enough. Most likely Resident Biden wanted to see a "bigger" Keystone XL.

Focus on fracking: posted

  • US natural gas hits highest price since 2008;
  • US natural gas closes at 7 1/2 year weekly high;
  • European and Asian prices are five times higher.

OPEC meeting adjourned:

  • Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser said natural-gas-to-oil shift (due to high price and availability of natural gas) added 500,000 bbl to global oil demand:
  • all reports suggest OPEC has no plans to ease cuts more than the previously planned 400,000 bopd
  • do the math; it's pretty simply; even a caveman could do that math

UK drivers: may soon see record petrol prices.

Covid-19 vaccine rollout data, as of Sunday, October 3, 2021, link:

  • delivered: 478,410,525
  • administered: 395,934,825
  • at least one dose: 215,233,625
  • fully vaccinated: 185,492,579
  • percent of US population, fully vaccinated: 55.9%

India, coal link here:

  • coal: only four days worth of coal for power plants on hand;
  • coal stocks are rated critically low at 104 out of a total of 135 power plants
  • coal stocks are rated critically low at 127 GW out of a total of 165 GW of capacity
  • India Power Review: says no shortage; the coal is stockpiled at the pitheads; India has 3x the 2019 level during the last storage; so, we'll see

ISO NE: early morning, spiked to $85. Back to a more manageable $45 but the mix is atrocious: 89%for nuclear and natural gas. Only 6% renewables. At 89% nuclear and natural gas, renewable energy is irrelevant no matter what "they" say.

UNP: upgraded by Barclays Closed up $.73/share on Friday; up almost three percent. Pre-market today, up another $3; up about 1.65%; pre-market at $205. Still off its highs by quite a bit.

MRK: pre-market, among the leaders. Up over three percent with heavy volume. 

Equinor: nice update. Link to Felicity Bradstock.  

Rivian: better to own Cathie Wood's ARKK or Amazon? And, here. Asking for a friend.

Back to the Bakken

WTI: flirting with $76 this morning.

Active rigs, updated at COB daily. 

Active Rigs2511586459

Wells coming off confidential list (the stringed instrument pad is tracked here):

Monday, October 4, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 229 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, October 3, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 229 for the year:

  • 37025, conf, Enerplus, Harp 149-94-02C-01H-TF,

Saturday, October 2, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 228 for the year:

  • 37026, conf, Enerplus, Guitar 149-94-02C-01H, 

RBN Energy: US, international gas markets strap in for a wild winter ride.

Last week, panic over gas availability and energy reliability this winter sent international natural gas and LNG prices above $30/MMBtu for the first time. Asia’s Japan Korea Marker (JKM), Europe’s Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and the UK National Balancing Point (NBP) once again had multiple days in a row of all-time high settlements, as the undersupplied market struggles to find balance. The global shortage has also impacted the gas-rich U.S. market, which is linked to it through LNG exports. The U.S. markets are tight and might also face undersupply this winter, albeit, probably not to the point of triggering reliability issues that are already emerging abroad. If it did, the U.S. exports nearly 10 Bcf/d of LNG, which could be throttled back to free up additional supplies for domestic use. Nonetheless, Henry Hub prices climbed to nearly $6/MMBtu last week and hit post-2008 record highs. 
This is by no means the first-time various markets have faced considerable imbalance. 
In fact, last year at this time we were coming out of a period of widespread oversupply and record-low gas prices. But it’s certainly foreboding that it’s not even winter yet, and prices are skyrocketing to new heights. So the big question on everyone’s mind is how bad could this get? The answer of course is complicated and heavily dependent on weather. In today’s RBN blog, “To the Moon and Back – U.S., International Gas Markets Strap in for Wild Winter Ride,” Lindsay Schneider takes a look at how we got here, how LNG has intertwined the international energy markets more than ever, and what that means for the winter ahead.

The two Enerplus stringed instrument pad wells coming off confidential list. Note: NDIC is no longer updating production. NDIC stopped reporting production in July, 2021. Only data we have is from July, previously reported:

  • 37025, conf, Enerplus, Harp 149-94-02C-01H-TF, Mandaree:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

  • 37026, conf, Enerplus, Guitar 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold