Wednesday, March 8, 2017

"Holy Nightmare, Batman, What Do We Do Now?" -- March 8, 2017

Wow, to put this in perspective, look at the previous updates at this post.

This is the most recent graphic of Saudi Arabia's cash reserves:


Look at that huge drop-off from December, 2016, to January, 2017, most current data. 

Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo.

It needs $100-oil.

It re-adjusted its national budget based on $80-oil for 2017.

The country most recently said it hopes to see $60-oil in 2017.

We're looking at $55-oil (Brent) and trending down.

Cry me a river.

I "predicted" there would be a month-over-month drop going into January, 2017, but I honestly never thought it would be that .... well, that graphic.

I mean, look at that drop. It's hard to read the numbers, but it looks like November to December (2016) it was "only" a drop from 2,020,000 to 2,010,000 million SAR ($2.7 billion) but the most recent data suggests a drop from 2,010,000 to 1,960,000 million SAR ($13.5 billion).

One Saudi riyal equals about a US quarter, more accurately 27 cents.

So, 2,010,000 million SAR x 0.27 = $542,700,000,000 or $542.700 billion.

and, 1,960,000 million SAR x 0.27 = 529,200,000,000 or 529.200 billion.

In the February note, it looked like the month-over-month decrease was in the $8 billion range and between November/December, 2016, the delta might have been significantly less, maybe $3 billion, but my calculations suggest the drop was closer to $14 billion between January, 2017, and December, 2016.

I'm assuming John Kemp will provide an update.

Disclaimer: I often make simple errors in arithmetic. If this is important to you, talk to Prince Salman. 

Sukiyaki, Kyu Sakamoto
Translation: "Like the Saudis, I look up, so the tears won't fall."

By The End Of The Year, Shell-Branded Gasoline Stations In Texas Will Be Owned By Saudi Aramco -- March 8, 2017

Details here. This is not new; simply an update.

Later, a reader wrote:
Motiva was actually an offspring of a prior union.  Texaco and the Saudi's began the union back in the 1980's.  The Texaco half was then jiggered around to include Chevron about 10 or 15 years later, and after some time, that same half was jiggered around to include Shell.

Very few people outside the industry knew that Saudi Arabia had so beautifully positioned themselves - originally as owning half of the consortium that controlled the largest refining capacity in the USA.  Then subsequent to the current split, having outright ownership of the single largest USA refinery.
Yes, that is accurate: after the split, Saudi Aramco has the biggest refinery by far of the three that made up the joint venture. 

Life Is A Journey, Not A Destination -- March 8, 2017

Tony Romo to leave Dallas Cowboys.

Global Warming Hits North-Central North Dakota -- March 8, 2017

This is pretty cool; sent to me by a reader.

Glenburn, ND.

Three things to note in the video:
  • Glenburn is northeast of Minot, ND; there is a small oil field named Glenburn in the area
  • note the Bobcat in the video and who is operating it: the Bobcat was "invented" in North Dakota; manufactured in North Dakota
  • the North Dakota "accent"
Oh, yes, the snow.

Video at this link:

Also, I thought it was pretty cool the kids were not sent home early due to the coming blizzard/snowstorm. Everywhere outside of North Dakota where I have lived, students were released early if bad weather was predicted. Not in North Dakota. There are good reasons for that, by the way. We can talk about that some other time, perhaps. Right now I'm out the door to take our oldest granddaughter to water polo practice.

Same Storm -- Different Snowdrift
Life Is A Journey -- Not A Destination
Otherwise You Would Still Be In Rugby

Amtrak train freed after being stuck almost 13 hours in 25-foot North Dakota snowbank, at The Dickinson Press
  • eastbound
  • five miles west of Rugby, ND
  • 111 passengers
  • ordeal began at 7:00 a.m.; ended at 6:45 p.m.
  • one-track at that point; delayed a west-bound Amtrak for 14 hours (about the same amount of time; curious how that works out)
  • four additional locomotives brought in to move the train; unsuccessful
  • finally, snow had to be removed from underneath the train by hand-shovel
  • train was already seven hours late due to weather
  • most passengers were on their way to a global warming conference in Portland, Oregon.
I made that last one up. LOL. 

One For The Ages

Motorists in 60 vehicles stranded 24 hours in northwest ND in "worst ground blizzard I've ever seen."

Also from The Dickinson Press. Data points and comments:
  • "ground blizzard" -- is there any other kind; I guess an ocean blizzard
  • Bowbells, ND: population, 336; up near Canadian border, northeast of Williston (Boomtown, USA)
  • 60 vehicles? Must have been the entire county out on the road looking at the storm
  • When I was growing up in western North Dakota, if there were 60 vehicles anywhere it was likely on the way to the state basketball championship in Bismarck or Fargo -- but on a short stretch of road outside of Bowbells, I can't even imagine -- obviously the remnants of the Bakken boom
  • Starbucks stayed open an extra hour
I made that last one up, also. LOL.

Seriously, this must have been an incredible storm even by ND standards. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the roughnecks, truckers, farmers, ranchers, wow -- what a challenge. I"m impressed that the ND Highway Patrol was able to function, helping motorists. And, at least so far, no reports of fatalities due to hypothermia, etc.

For The Archives: A Reminder Of How Many DUCs There Were In 2Q16 At One Time

Memo to self. Never update this page. This is for the archives to remind me how many DUCs there were in the 2Q16 at one time. 

For newbies: SI/NC = DUC.

Thursday, June 30, 2016: 152 for the month; 252 for this quarter
30281, SI/NC, BR, Merton 21-15MBH, North Fork, no production data,
32003, SI/NC, BR, CCU Zephyr 34-34 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
31330, SI/NC, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 7B, no production data,
31331, SI/NC, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 8T2, no production data,

Wednesday, June 29, 2016: 148 for the month; 248 for this quarter
30835, SI/NC, XTO, TAT State Federal 14X-36H, Bear Creek, no production data,

Tuesday, June 28, 2016: 147 for the month; 247 for this quarter
30282, SI/NC, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH, North Fork, no production data,

Monday, June 27, 2016: 146 for the month; 246 for this quarter
29514, 569, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-21-28-4TFH, McGregor, 50 stages, 4.4 million lbs; t1/16; cum 48K 4/16;

Sunday, June 26, 2016: 145 for the month; 245 for this quarter

Saturday, June 25, 2016: 145 for the month; 245 for this quarter
25202, SI/NC, BR, Jerome 21-15TFH 3SH, North Fork, no production data,

Friday, June 22, 2016: 144 for the month; 244 for this quarter
32392, SI/NC, Statoil, Jack 21-16 5TFH-R, East Fork, no production data,

Thursday, June 22, 2016: 143 for the month; 243 for this quarter
25201, SI/NC, BR, Merton 21-15TFH 3NH, North Fork, no production data,
29516, 379, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-21-28-3TFH, McGregor, 4 sections, 50 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t1/16; cum 33K 4/16;

Wednesday, June 22, 2016: 141 for the month; 241 for this quarter
29571, IA/1,471, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-33D-28-6H, McGregory Buttes, 30 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t12/15; cum 36K 4/16; taken off-line 3/16; only produced 21 days 2/16; and one day 3/16;
31072, SI/NC, Enerplus Resources, Tackle 149-95-36C-25H TF, Eagle Nest, no production data,
31933, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Grimestad-LW-152-95-3031H-1, Clear Creek, no production data,

Tuesday, June 21, 2016:138 for the month; 238 for this quarter
25200, SI/NC, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH 2SH, North Fork, no production data,
31932, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-6, Hawkeye, no production data,

Monday, June 20, 2016:136 for the month; 236 for this quarter
26902, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Marinenko 145-97-30B-31-3H,  Little Knife, no production data,
29515, 534, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-21-28-3MBH, McGregor, 50 stages, 4.6 million lbs, t1/16; cum 58K 4/16; only 25 days in 4/16; choked way back?
31071, SI/NC, Enerplus, Bait 149-95-36C-25H, Eagle Nest, no production data,
31931, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-5, Hawkeye, no production data,

Sunday, June 19, 2016:132 for the month; 232 for this quarter
25199, SI/NC, BR, Merton 21-15MBH 2NH, North Fork, no production data,
31930, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-4, Hawkeye, no production data,
32076, drl, BR, CCU Badger 1-3-14TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,

Saturday, June 18, 2016:129 for the month; 229 for this quarter
32230, A, Denbury Onshore, CHSU 43A-21NH 15, Cedar Hills, a Red River B well,
32341, SI/NC, Enerplus Resources, Quillfish 149-95-36C-25H-TF-LLW, Eagle Nest, no production data,

Friday, June 17, 2016: 127 for the month; 227 for this quarter
31996, drl, Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-8, Capa, no production data,
32077, drl, BR, CCU Badger 2-3-14MBH, Corral Creek, no production data, 
32177, SI/NC, XTO, Tobacco Garden 31X-29D, Tobacco Garden, no production data,

Thursday, June 16, 2016: 124 for the month; 224 for this quarter
31997, drl, Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-9, Capa, no production data,
32078, drl, BR, CCU Badger 2-3-14TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32236, SI/NC, SM Energy, William 4B-28HN, Ambrose, no production data,

Wednesday, June 14, 2016: 121 for the month; 221 for this quarter
31898, SI/NC, XTO, JMB 14X-15B,Capa, no production data,
31998, drl, Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-10, Clear Creek, no production data,
32176, SI/NC, XTO, Tobacco Garden 31X-29CXD, Tobacco Garden, no production data,
32260, SI/NC, Statoil, Enderud 9-4 7TFH, Banks, no production data,

Tuesday, June 13, 2016: 121 for the month; 221 for this quarter
31897, SI/NC, XTO, JMB 14X-15E, Capa, no production data,
32079, drl, BR, CCU Badger 3-3-14 MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32175, SI/NC, XTO, Tobacco Garden 31X-29C, Tobacco Garden, no production data,
32237, SI/NC, SM Energy, Bella 4B-28HS, Ambrose, no production data,
32270, SI/NC, Statoil, Enderud 9-4 3TFH, Banks, no production data,
32342, 306, Hess, BL-Davidson-156-96-3526H-7, Beaver Lodge, a Devonian well (Three Forks), 50 stages, 3.5  millions lbs, t4/16; cum -- 
 Monday, June 13, 2016: 115 for the month; 215 for this quarter
24090, SI/NC, Statoil, Sax 25-36F 8TFH, Banks, no production data,
30426, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Sanford-LW-152-96-1819H-1, Westberg, no production data,
31896, SI/NC, XTO, JMB 14X-15A, Capa, no production data,

Sunday, June 12, 2016: 112 for the month; 212 for this quarter
30425, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Sanford-152-96-1819H-10, Westberg, no production data,
31895, SI/NC, XTO, JMB 14X-15EXH, Capa, no production data,

Saturday, June 11, 2016: 110 for the month; 210 for this quarter
24089, SI/NC, Statoil, Sax 25-36F 7H, Banks, no production data,
30424, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Sanford-152-96-1819H-9, Westberg, no production data,
31795, 2,218, Whiting, Chameleon State 21-16-1H, Banks, 35 stages, 7.3 million lbs, t12/15; cum 114K 4/16;
31796, 2,186, Whiting, Chameleon State 21-16-1TFH, Banks, 35 stages, 7.3 million lbs, t12/15; cum 65K 4/16;
31797, 1,467, Whiting, Chameleon State 21-16-2H, Banks, 35 stages, 7.3 million lbs, t12/15; cum 117K 4/16;
31894, SI/NC, XTO, JMB 14X-15AXD, Capa, no production data,

Friday, June 10, 2016: 104 for the month; 204 for this quarter
30423, drl, Hess, HA-Sanford-152-96-1819H-8, Westberg, no production data,
30773, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33A, Heart Butte, no production data,
30853, 1,452, Whiting, Ronna 21-4TFH,  Stockyard Creek, t1/16; cum 66K 4/16;

Thursday, June 9, 2016: 101 for the month; 201 for this quarter
30422, drl, Hess, HA-Sanford-152-96-1819H-7, Westberg, no production data,
30772, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33E, Heart Butte, no production data,

Wednesday, June 8, 2016: 99 for the month; 199 for this quarter
30771, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33B, Heart Butte, no production data,
30852, 2,954, Whiting, Connie 21-4H, Stockyard Creek, total middle Bakken pay zone thickness estimated at 45 feet; a trip gas of 3,475 units with a 6 - 8 foot flare, 37 stages, 6.6 million lbs; t12/15; cum 137K 4/16;
30892, 1,390, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 43-24 7B, Camp, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t2/16; cum 51K after 42 days;
30893, 984, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 43-24 8T, Camp, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t2/16; cum 22K after 52 days;
30894, 1,668, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 43-24 9B, Camp, 36 stages, 4.1 million lsb, t2/16; cum 48K after 2 months;
30895, 869, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 43-24 10T, Camp, t3/16; cum 15K after 42 days;
31053, 606, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 42-24 3B, Camp, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t1/16; cum 48K 4/16;
31054, 1,341, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 42-24 4T, Camp, t1/16; cum 38K 4/16 but only about 20 days/month;
31055, 1,941, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 42-24 5B, Camp, t1/16; cum 77K 4/16;
31056, 1,259, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 42-24 6T, Camp, t1/16; cum 45K 4/16;

Tuesday, June 7, 2016: 89 for the month; 189 for this quarter
30421, drl, Hess, HA-Sanford-152-96-1819H-6, Westberg, no production data,
30846, 3,017, Whiting, P Lynch 155-99-14-33-28-2H, Epping, t12/15; cum 111K 4/16;
30848, 2,249, Whiting, P Lynch 155-99-14-33-28-3H, Epping, t12/15; cum 126K 4/16;
30850, 2,015, Whiting, Marty 31-4H, Stockyard Creek, t12/15; cum 104K 4/16;
31078, 1,901, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-8H, McGregory Buttes, t12/15; cum 122K 4/16;
Monday, June 6, 2016: 84 for the month; 184 for this quarter
31077, 1,910, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-7H, McGregory Buttes, 33 stages, 9.8 million lbs, t12/15; cum 75K 4/16; 

Sunday, June 5, 2016: 83 for the month; 183 for this quarter

Saturday, June 4, 2016: 83 for the month; 183 for this quarter
31656, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Budahn-150-95-0506H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Friday, June 3, 2016: 82 for the month; 182 for this quarter
31657, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Budahn 150-95-0506H-7, Blue Buttes, no production data,
32204, SI/NC, SM Energy, Bison 2B-28HN, Ambrose, no production data,

Thursday, June 2, 2016: 80 for the month; 180 for this quarter
32200, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Budahn-LS-150-95-0506H-1, Blue Buttes, no production data,
31076, 2,237, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-6H, McGregory Buttes, t12/15; cum 109K 4/16;

Wednesday, June 1, 2016: 78 for the month; 178 for this quarter
25620, PNC, WPX. Mandan 13-14HY, Reunion Bay,
25621, PNC, WPX. Mandan 13-14HX, Reunion Bay,
25622, PNC, WPX. Mandan 13-14HB, Reunion Bay,
25623, PNC, WPX. Mandan 13-14HW, Reunion Bay,
32203, SI/NC, SM Energy, Bobcat 2-28HN, Ambrose, no production data,

Tuesday, May 31, 2016: 77 for the month; 177 for this quarter
None. November was six months ago and there is no "31st" day in November.

Monday, May 30, 2016: 77 for the month; 177 for this quarter
30709, 991, QEP, State 8-25-24BH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum 14K 3/16; only 23 days in 3/16;
30710, 139, QEP, State 4-25-24T2H, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum --
30711, 670, QEP, Stte 9-25-24BH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum --
30712, 817, QEP, State 5-25-24TH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum --
30904, 2,024, QEP, State 5-36-1TH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum 32K 3/16;
30905, 2,385, QEP, State 9-36-1BH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t3/16; cum 27K in 31 days;
32202, SI/NC, SM Energy, Antelope 2B-28HS, Ambrose, no production data,

Sunday, May 29, 2016
: 70 for the month; 170 for this quarter
31080, 2,088, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-9H, McGregory Buttes, t12/15; cum 63K 4/16;
32223, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Uran A-LE-154-93-2215H-1, Robinson Lake, no production data,
32289, SI/NC, Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 1H-R, Banks, no production data,

Saturday, May 28, 2016: 67 for the month; 167 for this quarter

Friday, May 27, 2016: 67 for the month; 167 for this quarter
26903, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Marinenko 145-97-30B-31-5H, Little Knife, no production data,
32225, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Uran A-LE-154-93-2214-2, Robinson Lake, no production data,

Thursday: 65 for the month; 165 for this quarter
32224, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Ruud-LE-154-93-2735H-2, Robinson Lake, no production data,

Wednesday: 64 for the month; 164 for this quarter

Tuesday, May 24, 2016: 64 for the month; 164 for this quarter
31223, SI/NC, XTO, Harley Federal 24X-15F, Sand Creek, no production data,
31837, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 21X-17AXD, Sand Creek, no production data,
32226, loc, Hess, EN-Ruud-LE-154-93-2734H-1, Robinson Lake,
Monday, May 23, 2016: 61 for the month; 161 for this quarter
31224, SI/NC, XTO, Harley Federal 24-15B, Sand Creek, no production data,
31785, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 21X-17E, Siverston, no production data,

Sunday, May 22, 2016: 59 for the month; 159 for this quarter
31199, SI/NC, XTO, Kaye Federal 13X-3H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
31786, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 21X-17A, Siverston, no production data,

Saturday, May 21, 2016: 57 for the month; 157 for this quarter
31200, SI/NC, XTO, Kaye Federal 13X-3D, Lost Bridge, no production data,
31225, SI/NC, XTO, Harley Federal 24x-15E, Sand Creek, no production data,

Friday, May 20, 2016: 55 for the month; 155 for this quarter
31787, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 21X-17F,  Siverston, no production data,

Thursday, May 19, 2016: 54 for the month; 154 for this quarter
27685, 872, Oasis, Logan 5601 11-26 8T, Tyrone, t11/15; cum 43K 3/16;
27689, 1,325, Oasis, Logan 5601 13-26 4T, Tyrone, t11/15; cum 63K 3/16;
29042, 914, Oasis, McCauley Logan 5601 11-26 6T29, Tyrone, t12/15; cum 40K 3/16;
29133, SI/NC, Hess, BW-Erler-LE-149-99-1522H-1, Cherry Creek, no production data,
31201, SI/NC, XTO, Kaye Federal 13X-3G, Lost Bridge, no production data,
31226, SI/NC, XTO, Harley Federal 24X-15A, Sand Creek, no production data, 
31788, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 21X-17B, Siverston, no production data,  
31881, drl, CLR, Corsican Federal 8-15H2, Sanish, no production data, 

Wednesday, May 18, 2016: 46 for the month; 146 for this quarter

Tuesday, May 17, 2016: 46 for the month; 146 for this quarter
24963, 1,936, Enerplus, Banjo 149-94-02B-01H- TF, Mandaree, t11/15; cum 124K 3/16;
29132, SI/NC, Hess, BW-Erler-149-99-1522H-5, Cherry Creek, no production data,
30622, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 4-36-35-164N-100W, West Ambrose, producing,
31202, SI/NC, XTO, Kaye Federal 13X-3C,  Lost Bridge, no production data,
31880, drl, CRL, Corsican Federal 7-15H, Sanish, no production data,

Monday, May 16, 2016: 41 for the month; 141 for this quarter
31879, drl, CLR, Corsican Federal 6-15H1, Sanish, no production data, likely to be on "drl" status;

Sunday, May 15, 2016: 40 for the month; 140 for this quarter
29131, 876, Hess, BW-Erler-149-99-1522H-4, Cherry Creek, t41/6; cum --
31878, drl, CLR, Corsican Federal 5-15H, Sanish, no production data, likely to be on "drl" status;
32037, 2,981, Newfield, Skaar Federal 153-96-30-4H, Sand Creek, t2/16; cum 54K after 41 days;

Saturday, May 14, 2016: 37 for the month; 137 for this quarter
32038, 2,202, Newfield, Skaar Federal 153-96-30-3H, Sand Creek, t2/16; cum 54K after 44 days;
Friday, May 13, 2016: 36 for the month; 136 for this quarter
24962, 1,957, Enerplus, Grassy Knoll 2-11H, Mandaree, t11/15; ucm 127K 3/15;
26362, SI/NC, MHA 6-28-29H-148-92, Heart Butte, no production data,
30970, SI/NC, BR, Gudmunson 4-1-26TFH, Elidah, no production data,
31060, SI/NC, MRO, Heather USA 13-35TFH, Antelope, no production data,
31877, drl, CRL, Corsican Federal 4-15H2, Sanish, no production data,
32039, 2,308, Newfield, Skaar Federal 153-96-30-2H, Sand Creek, t2/16; cum 50K after 46 days

Thursday, May 12, 2016: 30 for the month; 130 for this quarter
26363, SI/NC, QEP, MHA 8-28-29H-148-92, Heart Butte, no production data,
30971, SI/NC, BR, Gudmunson 3-1-26MBH, Elidah, no production data,
31023, 1,647, Whiting, P Berger 156-100-14-7-19-13H, East Fork, t11/15; cum 101K 3/16;
31025, 1,832, Whiting, P Berger 156-100-14-7-19-14H, East Fork, t11/15; cum 84K 3/16;
31061, SI/NC, MRO, Juantia USA 13-35H, Antelope, no production data,
31876, drl, CLR, Corsican Federal 3-15H, Sanish, no production data,
32040, 2,347, Newfield, Skaar Federal 153-96-30-1H, Sand Creek, t2/16; cum 42K after 46 days;

Wednesday, May 11, 2016: 23 for the month; 123 for this quarter
24046, 1,661, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-2H, Charlson, t1/16; cum 42K 3/16;
31875, drl, CLR, Corsican Federal 2-15H1, Sanish,
32041, 1,229, Newfield, Skaar Federal 153-96-30-5HLW, Sand Creek, t2/16; cum 36K after 46 days

Tuesday, May 10, 2016: 20 for the month; 120 for this quarter
30972, SI/NC, BR, Gudmunson 1-1-26MBH, Elidah, no production data,
31059, SI/NC, MRO, Ethel USA 13-35TFH-2B, Antelope, no production data,

Monday, May 9, 2016: 18 for the month; 118 for this quarter
30973, SI/NC, BR, Gudmuri 1-1-26TFH-ULW, Elidah, no production data,
31058, SI/NC, MRO, Clarks Creek USA 14-35H, Antelope, no production data,
31874, SI/NC, CLR, Corsican Federal 1-15H, Sanish, no production data,

Sunday, May 8, 2016: 15 for the month; 115 for this quarter
31057, SI/NC, MRO, Charmaine USA 14-35TFH, Antelope, no production data; see notes and graphic below

Saturday, May 7, 2016: 14 for the month; 114 for this quarter

Friday, May 6, 2016: 14 for the month; 114 for this quarter
29413, 2,705, Whiting, P Berger 156-100-14-7-6-4H, East Forks, t11/5; cum 102K 3/16;
29414, 2,399, Whiting, P Berger 156-100-14-7-6-4H3, East Forks, t11/15; cum 91K 3/16;
29416, 1,374, Whiting, P Berger 156-100-14-7-6-3H, East Forks, t11/15; cum 84K 3/16;

Thursday, May 5, 2016: 11 for the month; 111 for this quarter
30686, SI/NC, XTO, Rink 12X-4D, Garden, no production data;

Wednesday, May 4, 2016: 10 for the month; 110 for this quarter
29735, SI/NC, WPX, Wells 32-29HZ, Reunion Bay, no production data,
30574, SI/NC, XTO, Rink 12X-4H, Garden, no production data,
31598, 336, Hess, EN-Cvancara-155-93-1522H-6, Alger, t5/16; cum 8K after 29 days;

Tuesday, May 3, 2016: 7 for the month; 107 for this quarter

Monday, May 2, 2016: 7 for the month; 107 for this quarter
30573, SI/NC, XTO, Rink 12X-4C,  Garden, no production data,
31599, 466, Hess, EN-Cvancara-155-93-1522H-5, Alger, t5/16; cum 12K after 34 days;

Sunday, May 1, 2016: 5 for the month; 105 for this quarter
29736, SI/NC, WPX, Wells 32-29HD, Reunion Bay, no production data,
29737, SI/NC, WPX, Wells 32-29HY,  Reunion Bay, no production data,
31600, 1,388, Hess, EN-Cvancara-LE-155-93-1522H-1, Alger, t5/16; cum 29K after 31 days;
32121, 901, EOG, Austin 437-2635H, Parshall, t51/6; cum 23K after 30 days;
32122, 601, EOG, Austin 436-2635H, Parshall, t5/16; cum 1K after 2 days;

Saturday, April 30, 2016: 100 for the month; 100 for this quarter
32049, 277, SM Energy, Hay Farms 14B-20HN, Skabo, t5/16; cum 8K after 47 days;
32096, 888, Hess, EN-Cvancara-LE-155-93-1523H-2, Alger, t5/16; cum 23K after 26 days

Friday, April 29, 2016: 98 for the month; 98 for this quarter
31949, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Glovatsky 145-98-24D-13-1HS, Little Knife, no production data,
32120, 871, EOG, Austin 438-2635H, Parshall, t5/16; cum 19K after 31 days;

Thursday, April 28, 2016: 96 for the month; 96 for this quarter
18664, 746, Whiting, Eide 5-13H, Truax, t81/10; cum 230K 2/16;
30951, drl-->loc, EOG, Van Hook 70-1411H,

Wednesday, April 27, 2016: 94 for the month; 94 for this quarter 
31556, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-6, Hawkeye, small production reported while on SI/NC status;

Tuesday, April 26, 2016: 93 for the month; 93 for this quarter
30770, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33F, Heart Butte, no production data,
31513, 371, SM Energy, Larson Federal 15-34H, West Ambrose, t3/16; cum --

Monday, April 25, 2016: 91 for the month; 91 for this quarter
30769, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33G, Heart Butte, no production data,
31097, 127, Crescent Point Energy, CPEC Elgaard 2-31-32-164N-100W, Colgan, t1/16; cum 11K 2/16;
31557, 1,275, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-7, Hawkeye, t3/16; cum --

Sunday, April 24, 2016: 88 for the month; 88 for this quarter
21111, 1,427, Enerplus, Anna G. Baker 6B-7-2H TF, Moccasin Creek, t6/16; cum --
30768, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33D, Heart Butte, no production data,
31558, 1,432, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-8, Hawkeye, t3/16; cum --
31679, 472, SM Energy, Mo Farms 15-21HS, Musta, t5/16; cum 5K after 20 days;

Saturday, April 23, 2016: 84 for the month; 84 for this quarter
31314, SI/NC, Sinclair, Porcupine 2-19H, Little Knife, no production data,
31559, 572, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-9, Hawkeye, t3/16; cum --
31934, 2,245, BR, CCU Atlantic Express 41-30MBH, Corral Creek, t2/16; cum 7K after 13 days;
Friday, April 22, 2016: 81 for the month; 81 for this quarter
31005, 1,957, QEP, Henderson 36-25-35-26T2H, Three Forks 2nd Bench, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, Grail, t11/5; cum 25K after 46 days;
31006, 1,906, QEP, Henderson 36-25-35-26BH, 48 stages, 9.7 million lbs, Grail, t11/15; cum 27K after 49 days;
31007, 2,557, QEP, Henderson 1-12-2-11BH, Grail, 48 stages, 9.3 million lbs, t11/15; cum 33K after 51 days;
31008, 2,725, QEP, Henderson 1-12-2-11T2H, Grail, Three Forks 2nd Bench, 49 stages, 8.1 million lbs, t11/15; cum 41K after 47 days;
31560, 1,115, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-10, Hawkeye, t3/16; cum --
31680, 630, SM Energy, Mo Farms 15-21HN, Musta, t5/16; cum 8K after 22 days;
31908, SI/NC, Statoil, no production data,
32052, 601, Enerplus, Town Hall 148-93-31C-30H, McGregory Buttes, t6/16; cum --

Thursday, April 22, 2016: 73 for the month; 73 for this quarter
29130, 773, Hess, BW-Johnson-149-99-1003H-6, Cherry Creek, t4/16; cum 32K after 1.5 months; 
31569, 471, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fairholm 4-33-34-164N-100W, West Ambrose, t1/16; cum 14K after 41 days;
31909, SI/NC, Statoil, Enderud 9-4 XE 1TFH, Banks, no production data,
31935, 521, BR, CCU Plymouth 11-29TFH, Corral Creek, t2/16; cum -- 

Wednesday, April 20, 2016: 69 for the month; 69 for this quarter
30947, 1,928, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-15W-31-7-14H, Stockyard Creek, a big well, the P Bibler wells are tracked here, t10/15; cum 94K 2/16;
31936, 2,204, BR, CCU Plymouth 11-29MBH, Corral Creek, 2/16; cum 6K over 9 days;
32051, 2,066, Enerplus, Dance Hall 14793-06B-07H, Moccasin Creek, t6/16; cum --

Tuesday, April 19, 2016: 66 for the month; 66 for this quarter
29129, 977, Hess, BW-Johnson-149-99-1003H-5, Cherry Creek, t3/16; cum 37K after two months;
31568, 600, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elgaard 4-32-31-165N-100W, Colgan, middle Bakken, t1/16; cum 20K over 46 days

Monday, April 18, 2016: 64 for the month; 64 for this quarter
29128, SI/NC, Hess, BW-Johnson-149-99-1003H-4, Cherry Creek, no production data,
31639, SI/NC, BR, Old Hickory 43-32 MBH-R, Sand Creek, no production data,
31937, 481, BR, CCU Plymouth 21-29TFH, Corral Creek, 7" casing point reached November 23, 2015; TD reached November 29, 2015; 1st bench, 27 stages, 7.1 million lbs, in drilling target footage, 95.85%; below drilling target footage, 4.15%; lateral gas show with a high of 3,511 units; t2/16; cum --; 

Sunday, April 17, 2016: 61 for the month; 61 for this quarter

Saturday, April 16, 2016: 61 for the month; 61 for this quarter
30227, SI/NC, BR, SunNotch 42-32TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
31910, SI/NC, Statoil, Sax 25-36F 2TFH, Banks, no production data,

Friday, April 15, 2016: 59 for the month; 59 for this quarter
29499, 1,081, Oasis, Brier 5200 43-22 12T, Camp, ICO, 46 stages, 11.8 million lbs, t12/15; cum 55K 2/16;
29500, 1,618, Oasis, Brier 5200 42-22 11T2, Camp, ICO, 1600 acres, second bench, 46 stages, 4.8 million lbs, t12/15; cum 63K 2/16; only 23 days in February;
29501, 2,158, Oasis, Brier 5200, 42-22 10B, Camp, ICO, t11/15, 46 stages, 5.1 million lbs; cum 92k 2/16; only 20 days in 2/16;
29502, 1,644, Oasis, Brier 5200, 42-22 9T, Camp, ICO, first bench, t11/15; cum 83K 2/16; only 26 days in 2/16;
30226, SI/NC, BR, Old Hickory 42-32TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
30687, 1,841, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-2H, Twin Valley, 31 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t10/15; cum 103K 2/16; only 24 days in 2/16;
30950, drl-->loc, EOG, Van Hook 71-1411H, Parshall, no production data, in a 4/18/16 sundry form, EOG requests to "plug and abandon the well...EOG intends to use the well bore in the future."
32032, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Pederson-LW-154-94-0408H-8, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Thursday, April 14, 2016: 51 for the month; 51 for this quarter
30225, SI/NC, BR, Sun Notch 42-32MBH, Sand Creek, no production data,
30951, loc, EOG, Van Hook 70-1411H, Parshall, no production data,
31981, 109, Denbury, CHSU ML24014SH 15, Cedar Hills, a South Red River B well, t12/15; cum 10K 2/16;
32031, 1,275, Hess, EN-Pederson-LW-154-94-0408H-7, Alkali Creek, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t2/16; cum 19K over 13 days;
Wednesday, April 13, 2016: 47 for the month; 47 for this quarter
31911, SI/NC, Statoil, Enderud 9-4 6H, Banks, no production data,
32030, 917, Hess, EN-Pederson-LW-154-94-0408H-6, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, 35 stages, 2.5 million lbs, t2/16; cum 20K 2/16; only 19 days in 2/16;
Tuesday, April 12, 2016: 45 for the month; 45 for this quarter
31179, 2,124, BR, CCU Atlantic Express 13-19 TFH, Corral Creek, 46 stages, 8 million lbs, t2/16; cum 15K after 27 days;
31180, 3,287, BR, CCU Atlantic Express 23-19 MBH, Corral Creek, 45 stages, 5.1 million lbs, t2/16; cum 13K after 24 days;
32029, 1,258, Hess, EN-Pederson-LW-154-94-0408H-5, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, Three Forks, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs,  2/16; cum 33K after 25 days;
Monday, April 11, 2016: 42 for the month; 42 for this quarter
30224, SI/NC, BR, Old Hickory 42-32MBH, Sand Creek, no production data,
31178, 2,044, BR, CCU Pacific Express 12-19TFH, Corral Creek, 46 stages, 8.1 million lbs, t2/16; cum 12K 2/16;
31984, 800, EOG, Austin 439-2326H, Parshall, t5/16; cum 9K after 29 days;

Sunday, April 10, 2016: 39 for the month; 39 for this quarter
31545, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-7, Capa, no production data,
32050, 2,246, MRO, Martinez USA 24-8H, Wolf Bay, t1/16; cum 42K over 43 days;

Saturday, April 9, 2016: 37 for the month; 37 for this quarter
31174, SI/NC, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HZL, Van Hook, no production data,
31544, A, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-6, Capa, no test date (probably 5/16); cum 17K after 16 days;
31816, drl, St Croix Operating, Badger 1, Wildcat, no production data,
31983, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 440-2326H, Parshall, no production data,

Friday, April 8, 2016: 33 for the month; 33 for this quarter
30606, 1,090, QEP, Boggs 3-29-32T2HD, Grail, t10/15; cum 100K 2/16; production held back;
30607, 1,000, QEP, Boggs 8-29-32BHD, Grail, t10/15; cum 96K 2/16; 
30608, 1,995, QEP, Boggs 2-29-32T2HD, Grail, t10/15; cum 78K 2/16; production held back; only 8 days in January, 2 days in February;
30609, 2,053, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31T3HD, Blue Buttes, t10/15; cum K 2/16; production held back; only 7 days in December, 5 days in January;
30610, 2.202, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31THD, Blue Buttes, t10/15; cum 93K 2/16; production held back; 21 days in December, 21 days in January;
30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks 2nd cycle, 31 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t10/15; cum 134K 2/16; only 24 days in February, 16 days in November, 8 days in October. Drilled to vertical depth and the curve in five days. Total depth of the south lateral was reached in ten days from spud. Gas: 800 to 1,000 units. Connection gases as high as 7,958 units, with a 3' to 5' flare. At 21,505 feet it's a lot of pipe.
31543, 592, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-5, Capa, t5/16; cum 6K after 11 days;

Thursday, April 7, 2016: 26 for the month; 26 for this quarter
31173, SI/NC, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HD, Van Hook, no production data,
31542, 323, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-5, Capa, t5/16; cum 2K after 4 days;
31703, SI/NC, Statoil, Shorty 4-9F 8TFH, Charlson, no production data,
31982, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 441-2326H, Parshall, no production data,

Wednesday, April 6, 2016: 22 for the month; 22 for this quarter
30688, 1,392, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-2TFH, Twin Valley, 35 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t10/15; cum 108K 2/16; not even full months of production since coming on line;
30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 22-4-5TFH, Twin Valley, 35 stages, 5.8 million lbs, t10/15; cum 214K 2/16; not even full months of production since coming on line;
30775, 175, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-4THF, Twin Valley, 31 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t10/15; cum -- ; 7 days of production back in 10/15; none since;
31172, SI/NC, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HQ, Van Hook, no production data,
31236, 1,172, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-1TFH, Truax, spud August 15, 2015; cease drilling, August 29, 2016; t10/15; cum 51K; production cut way back past two months;
31238, 2,744, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-3TFH, Truax, spud July 30, 2015; cease drilling, August 12, 2015; 10/15; cum 110K 2/16; not even full months of production since coming on line;
31541, 1,217, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-3, Capa, t6/16; cum 25K after 20 days;

Tuesday,  April 5, 2016: 15 for the month; 15 for this quarter
31171, SI/NC, WPX Peterson 6-5-4 HC, Van Hook, no production data,
31540, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Russell SMith-155-96-2425H-2, Capa, no production data,
31702, SI/NC, Statoil, Shorty 4-9F 7H, Stony Creek, no production data,

Monday,  April 4, 2016: 12 for the month; 12 for this quarter
31539, 373, Hess, CA-Russell Smith -155-96-2425H-1, Capa, t5/16, cum 8K after 8 days;
31625, SI/NC, XTO, Ames Federal 31-13FXG, Grinnell, no production data,
31701, SI/NC, Statoil, Shorty 4-9F 6TFH, Stony Creek, no production data,

Sunday, April 3, 2016: 9 for the month; 9 for this quarter
30968, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 48-3626H, Charlson, no production data,
31626, SI/NC XTO, Ames Federal 31-13BXC, Grinnell, no production data,
31700, SI/NC, Statoil, Shorty 4-9F 5H, Stony Creek, no production data,

Saturday, April 2, 2016: 6 for the month; 6 for this quarter
31184, 370, CLR, Addyson 5-23H, Brooklyn, 4 sections, 30 stages, 7.4 million lbs, t2/16; cum 99K 10/16;
31627, SI/NC, XTO, AmesFederal 31X-13G, Grinnell, no production data,

Friday, April 1, 2016: 4 for the month; 4 for this quarter
30969, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 47-3626H, Parshall, no production data,
31628, SI/NC, XTO, Ames Federla 31X-13B, Grinnell, no production data,
31699, SI/NC, Statoil, Shorty 4-9F 4TFH, Stony Creek, no production data,
31849, SI/NC, MRO, Ronald 34-33TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Make America Great Again -- More Bad News For Mexico -- Samsung To Shift Some Manufacturing From Mexico To US -- WSJ -- March 8, 2017

From The Wall Street Journal. Data points:
  • planning major investment to expand its US production facilities
  • at least five (5) US states in discussion (any bet that Texas is one of them)
  • initial investment, about $300 million
  • Samsung could shift some production of oven ranges to the US from Mexico (500 jobs)
  • first ovens, later, perhaps, reefers, washers, dryers
  • decision influenced by election of Trump
  • nope, not Texas: the five states: Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Ohio
  • one of the country's (US) largest direct foreign investors
  • just before the election, Samsung said it would invest more than $1 billion in its Austin, TX, semiconductor factor to boost production of processor chips for smartphones and other devices
  • meanwhile, Samsung's hometown rival LG Electronics said last week it would build a new home-appliance manufacturing factory in Tennessee, creating at least 600 jobs and investing $250 million

Three More DUCS; Oasis Acquires 156 SM Energy Wells In North Dakota -- March 8, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4533114191

Three wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 25410, SI/NC, QEP, MHA 1-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 32449, SI/NC, SM Energy, Donna Buddy 15B-20HN, Amrose, no production data,
  • 32458, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal 151-95-1708H-9, Blue Buttes, no production data,
Two new permits:
  • Operator: Marathon
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Sixteen permits renewed:
  • Whiting (9): four P Earl Rennerfeldt permits; two P Lynch permits; two Koala permits, and a Sue permit, all in Williams County
  • WPX (3): three Ruby Parshall permits, all in McKenzie County
  • Oasis: a Patsy permit in McKenzie County
  • Petro-Hunt: an M. Thorson permit in Burke County
  • Thunderbird Resources: a Watson permit, McKenzie County
  • Hunt: an Oakland permit, Mountrail County
Operator Transfer: from SM Energy to Oasis, 156 wells; back in October, 2016: Oasis - SM Energy deal, October, 2016: SM Energy sells 55,000 non-Divide County acres to Oasis; $785 million deal:
  • oldest permit: 07503
  • most recent oil and gas permit: 31066
  • almost all in McKenzie County
  • four (or thereabouts) in Williams County; and no other counties 
  • several wells with the following familiar Bakken names:
    • Stenehjem
    • Bonner
    • James
    • Koeser
    • Broderson
    • Ceynar
    • Norby
    • Eckert
    • Holm 
History: from my notes over at the "Bakken Operator page":
SM (previously St Mary Land and Exploration)
  • Daily activity report: 156 SM Energy wells transferred to Oasis 
  • Is SM Energy exiting the Bakken completely? It appear so. January 25, 2017.
  • Oasis - SM Energy deal, October, 2016: SM Energy sells 55,000 non-Divide County acres to Oasis; $785 million deal 
  • 3Q14: 238,000 net acres in the Williston Basin; new acreage in Gooseneck prospect in central Divide
  • 202,000 + 7,0000 acres = 209,000 acres; sells non-core assets; now down to about 159,000 net acres in the Bakken
  • Filloon says SM has 202,000 net acres (4Q11)
  • 2 rigs; a third sometime late 2011 
  • 4Q11: 8,200 boepd
  • 3Q11: 5,300 boepd
  • Was a natural gas company; moving to oil; still (4Q11) 56% natural gas

Finally, At 3:04 P.M. -- FBN With Crude Oil Price Story; Hickory, Dickory, Dock -- March 8, 2017

This almost feels like a panic.

But there's something happening here, and you don't know what it is ... 

Ballad Of A Thin Man, Bob Dylan

A Note To The Granddaughters
Failte gu Alba
Welcome to Scotland

This is so cool. Earlier I ran through the contents of the current issue of The New York Review of Books. I couldn't wait to get started on the essay about The Marches: A Borderland Journey Between England and Scotland. To some extent, the "borderland journey between England and Scotland" was a bit redundant. After all, this is a book about the Marches. LOL.

I should not laugh. I had no idea what "the Marches" were until I read George Eliot's Middlemarch some few years ago.

The essay was good, not great, but good, and then I ran into something that made my day. Do you remember this from an earlier post?
From The Book of Numbers, John H. Conway and Richard K. Guy, c. 1996, page 2:
One such system is:
wan, twan, tethera, methera, pimp,
sethera, lethera, overa, dovera, dick,
wanadick, twanadick, tetheradick, metheradick, pimpdick,
setheradick, letheradkic, hoveradick, doveradick, bumfit,
wanabumfit, ...
Such rustic sequences appear in many countries. They are usually highly corrupted versions of the standard number systems of ancient languages.
Hickory, dickory, doc,
The mouse ran up the clock.
The clock struck one;
The mouse ran down.
Hickory, dickory, dock.
Probably "hickory," "dickory," and "dock" are the words for "eight," "nine," and "ten" in one of these systems (compare "hovera, dovera, dick"), while "eeny, meeny, miny, mo" mean "one, two, three, four" in another.
Hold that thought.

From the essay today:
One especially telling encounter involves a shepher named Willy Tyson, who at local country shows is celebrated for counting his flock in the ancient Cumbri dialect of Rheged, which the Victorian believed was:
perhaps the last remnant of the lost aboriginal language of [the region], passed down through an oral tradition over forty generations ...
"Yan, tan, tethera, methera, pimp, sethera, lethera, hovera, dovera, dick, yan-a-dick, methera, bamfit, gigot ..."
Something tells me the author of the new book missed a few of the counting words, and might have gotten a few of them wrong ("methera" as both "four" and "twelve"?). Whatever.
Wow, like the Bakken, reading never ceases to amaze me, what I might find.

The Politics Page, T+47 -- March 8, 2017

Jobs go boom:

Sugar high: I did not read the story; I saw the headline. Then a reader sent me the link to the story that Mexico was going to embargo sugar exports to the US. I had to laugh. The US is the number one producer -- by a long shot -- of sugar in the world. At least I thought I read that. After a quick google, it appears that every sugar-producing country in the world subsidizes their sugar industry in some fashion (that's not surprising, considering, it seems, all agricultural products in this country are subsidized). So, all things being equal, if Mexico embargoes its sugar destined for the US, the Montana-North Dakota sugar beet farmers should be popping open some champagne this weekend.

Sales go boom: Ivanka clothing line reports record sales.

Provocateur-in-chief: NY Magazine on Camille Paglia.

Furious: Mr Obama said to be "furious" that he is being accused of wire-tapping. I'm shocked, shocked.

Spies: I'm a huge, huge supporter of former NSA director, Michael Hayden. But his comments aren't matching the leaks.

Calendar change? Maybe it's not "climate change," but rather "calendar change": eastern US, midwesterrn snowstorm threat increase in mid-March; biting cold that set records in Arctic poised to invade. -- The Washington Post.

The New York Review of Books

It's getting harder and harder to justify renewing my subscription to The New York Review of Books. This is the contents of the most recent issue, which I received today, from front to back:
  • first article, UC Berkeley professor writes long essay on Trump; no book review; what little I read, same old, same old
  • second article, review of two books on Megyn Kelly. Really
  • third article, an anti-gun essay and, again, no book review
  • fourth article, a review of a Netflix television series, not a book review; there seems to be a trend developing
  • fifth article, finally a review of a non-political book, on an artist by the name of David Salle, about as obscure as they come but at least it's finally fitting for this magazine
  • sixth article, a review of a documentary film, "I Am Not Your Negro," another box-office hit; no book review
  • seventh article, a short essay by a Polish poet, again, no book review
  • eighth article, finally a real book review; unfortunately not interested
  • ninth article, good, a real book review, by a staff writer for The New Yorker
  • tenth article, by director of the ACLU on free speech, from the pictures, another anti-Trump essay
  • eleventh article, good, a real book review
  • twelfth article, outstanding, I may renew my subscription simply because of this essay; a real review of several books on Mary Astor's purple diary
  • thirteen article, outstanding; I will renew my subscription; a real review on Pushkin
  • fourteenth article, outstanding; a book review of the "brotherhood of rock"
  • fifteenth article, wow! another book review and this time the book by an author that always intrigues me, Joyce Carol Oates
  • sixteenth article, yup, I will definitely renew -- this may be article I enjoy most; a book review and essay on "the marches": the borderland country between England and Scotland
  • seventeenth article, an essay/book review on the Tamil; when I'm in the mood
  • eighteenth article, another essay/book review; when I'm in the mood
  • nineteenth article, another essay/book review on the end of the Cold War, Reagan and Gorbachev
  • 20th: yup, another great book review and essay
  • 21st: perhaps passable; a review/essay on "the headquarters of neo-Marxism; review appears to be a liberal professor from University of Pennsylvania

The Energy And Market Page, T+47 -- March 8, 2017

Thoughts On The Price Of Oil Today

A reader sent me a note about today's "oil action" mentioning a number of things, including DUCs; lack of CAPEX for E&P; and, comments yesterday by the CEO of Chevron. My rambling thoughts:
1. The number of DUCs will decrease, but they are decreasing for two reasons, the first reason, I missed until Lynn Helms mentioned it several months ago:
a) drilling fewer wells to begin with (naturally results in fewer of everything, including fewer DUCs, all things being equal)
b) more frack crews completing more DUCs
2. I personally don't see DUCs making all that much difference; a DUC to me is no more than just another well, and I'm not seeing very many of them being reported each day on the daily activity report.

3. I haven't been listening to talking heads today, so I don't know the reasons being stated for oil down to almost $50. I will bet that one of the biggest reasons may be one everyone has forgotten about: 500,000 bopd could be moving from ND to Chicago as early as next week through a new pipeline. Granted, this is not all new oil; much of it is simply being moved from CBR and other pipelines to the DAPL but with prices coming way down, there may be an incentive to increase Bakken production by mom-and-pop operators.

4. Also forgotten is the Enbridge Alberta Clipper, Line 67, that if approved by Trump, could be up and running "overnight." We are talking about 3 miles of pipe. Granted, again, most of this oil is already reaching the US but easy access to an 800,000 bopd pipeline might incentivize a few Canadian oil sands companies.

5. It looks like the crude oil builds just keeping building and all that talk about OPEC cuts may be just that that: "talk."  It's interesting, it's almost as if Saudi Arabia got caught with its proverbial hand in the cookie jar. When questioned about the increase in exports, they said it was in response to "unplanned" / "unexpected" cut in production from various OPEC members. But if February exports were greater than January exports, it sure doesn't sound like much of a cut in production.

6. I didn't see strength of the dollar today, but generally a $3 move on $50-oil is not going to be explained by currency changes.

7. I still think operators who poured into the Permian at $40,000/acre may be squirming.

WTI crashing. Just before the close, a reader sent me a note about price of oil today. This was my unedited response: 
I have forgotten the amount of record-setting crude oil build of two weeks ago (14 million bbls?) but last week I think it was 9 million bbls and today I see it was another 8 million barrels.

1. So, we have the third week in a row of almost double-digit million bbl crude oil builds when the change is usually measured in low-single digits, and this despite the OPEC "cut." EIA weekly report here.

2. OPEC exports actually increased in February over January, despite the OPEC "cut."

3. COP's CEO reported yesterday that things looking glum regarding pricing.

I haven't watched the news much today but everything on Fox Business News has centered on healthcare; it takes two to three days for network producers to put together the agenda for the day, so maybe the oil story was missed, and we might see it by the end of the week. We'll certainly see it by the end of the week if oil goes below $50. I just checked .. wow, oil is now down almost $3.00 and closing in on $50.

It almost looks like a panic --- dropping $3.00 in one day.

And I still don't see FBN mentioning it, though I have only watched about ten minutes.
Mid-Day Trading
WTI crashing. Down almost $2.00. Could test $50 floor. Traders must not have liked the OPEC report released today (actually exported more oil in February and January, 2017), posted earlier. And then COP/CEO yesterday suggested we will experience volatility and could see $40. This is perhaps the big story of they day -- oil slumping almost $2. Curious if the story comes up in mainstream media / business news today. Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo. I think even XOM has its challenges doubling down in the Permian, as do other companies who paid $40,000/acre in the Permian. 


ADP jobs report: much better than expected; 298,000 jobs added; much, much better than the 190,000 forecast. Market reacts; goes from red to green. Trump enthusiasm, Trump rally.

Not seeing the OPEC cut. From Rigzone, OPEC crude export average rises in February. The OPEC cut was announced in late 2016; the cuts were to begin in January, 2017. This is now the second month, and here's the headline: OPEC crude export average rises in February.
  • OPEC exports: 25.32 million bopd in February
  • exceeds January level by almost 2 million bopd
  • significant increases from Saudi Arabia, Iran Kuwait and the UAE
  • Qatar surged by 320,000 bpd month-on-month to 750,000 bopd
  • deliveries:
    • to Asia: an increase of 250,000 bopd; China, declined, but big increase to South Korea
    • to Europe: OPEC imports "nosedived" 
    • to US: relatively flat at 2.4 million bopd
Weatherford names former Halliburton CFO its new chief.

Anadarko expects oil sales volumes to rise 25%. Reuters.

Reality sucks: Saudi Arabia says it will reduce the amount of oil it burns this summer to run air conditioners; will switch to natural gas.

Ford's new F-650/750 announced. Ford website. Video from 2014.  Will update when I get 2017 video.

Geeee -- GE, no HA. GE and Caithness Energy (NY/East Coast power company) announced an exclusive agreement to pursue development of multiple new HA combined-cycle power plants in the US. My understanding:
  • H: H-class gas turbines -- combined-cycle (CC) power plants;  introduced by GE in the early 2000's;
  • A: air-cooled 
  • combined cycle: an assembly of heat engines working in tandem; after the first cycle in the first engine is completed, the "waste" fluid is still hot enough to drive a second heat engine; by combining multiple streams of work on a single mechanical shaft turning an electric generator, the overall net efficiency of the system may be increased by 50 - 60%.

Jobs Report Much Better Than Expected -- March 8, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4433114191186

RBN Energy: a take-it-to-Corpus option for the Permian and the Eagle Ford crude oil producers.

Scott Adams: wiretapping word-thinking.

ADP jobs report: much better than expected; 298,000 jobs added; much, much better than the 190,000 forecast. Market reacts; goes from red to green. Trump enthusiasm, Trump rally.