Thursday, May 2, 2024

Back To The Bakken -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47041B.

Investing / US equities: across the board, it seems analysts, panelists, talking heads are all bullish on oil.  They don't talk about energy much, but when they do, they have only good things to say about oil as an investment.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG: maintains 40-cent dividend.

WTI: $78.95

Active rigs: 39.

One new permit, #40716:

  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Eightmile (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • Oasis has a permit for an Aune Federal wells, lot 3, section 30-153-102, 
      • to be sited 2546 FNL and 373 FWL;

Five permits renewed:

  • Foundation Energy: one Roosevelt permit and four Elkhorn Ranch Federal permits, all in Billings County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38688, 880, Slawson, Armada Federal 4 SLTFH,
  • 39544, 3,031, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F XE 1H,
  • 40147, 1,007, KODA Resources, Amber 1402-3BH,
  • 40148, 1,026, KODA Resources, Amber 1402-1BH,

AMGN -- March 2024 Quarter

Locator: 47040AMGN.

Up almost 12%. Up over $32, trading at $311.

Apple — AAPL — March 2024 Quarter -- Incredible Earnings Report Despite Huge Headwinds -- Ya Gotta Be A Believer!

Locator: 47039AAPL.

Updates

May 4, 2024: what really makes me excited about Apple?

  • the recent report that Apple continues to increase margins
  • continues its transition from hardware to services
  • its chip division -- Apple Silicon -- is undervalued, under-appreciated, almost unknown by most
  • perhaps the greatest FinTech company right now

Original Post -- Not Ready For Prime Time

Whisper numbers.

Link here.

AAPL earnings after close, the expectation from the WhisperNumber community is $1.58, 8c ahead of analyst estimates. Earnings came in $0.03 ahead of the whisper last quarter. 68% beat rate. Implied movement +/-3.6%.

Link here: here it says $1.50 with consensus at $1.51. Revenue: $89.79 billion.

If AAPL misses, shares could drop 4% to$166.08.

Results, link to WSJ article:
  • revenue declined for the fifth time in the past six quarters;
  • but while sales and profits fell in the March quarter, the numbers were slightly better than analyst expectations;
  • overall, WSJ also very negative about AAPL
  • so, maybe AAPL will sell off first thing in the a.m.

Ticker 
  • at close: $173.03 up $3.73; up 2.2%.
  • close + 10 minutes: $173.91.
  • at earnings announcement: wow! Awesome! But then I expect some profit taking.
    • more about this later
  • close + 90 minutes: up 6.22%; up $10.72; trading at $183.75
Largest-ever buyback announced by any company. It should be noted thi is ajust an announcement; the shares have not actually been bought yet.
  • $110 billion buyback
  • would that be 647 million shares? would that be 0.7% of shares bought back?
  • company had 15.51 billion outstanding shares before this buyback
Raises dividend four cents to twenty-five (25) cents.

CNBC's "Fast Money":
  • they all say AAPL is doing badly; this was a bad quarter; seriously
  • they said the reason the earnings looks good: Apple has been buying back so much stock over the years -- link here.
  • last quarter, they bought back $83 billion (or maybe the quarter before that, I forget, but whenever it was, it was a record at the time
    • now, today, a new all-time record
    • LOL
    • BRK does the same thing
    • something tells me Tim Cook is getting a lot of advice from Warren Buffett
  • in the big scheme of things, these guys were all "hoping" / expecting a bad earnings report
  • no one saw this coming
  • amazing analysis
  • most "reliable" analyst on "Fast Money" agreed -- said she wouldn't be buying AAPL at this level.
  • basically: the panel on Apple / AAPL: no joy; incredibly negative; they seem unable to see The Big Picture
  • my hunch: they are quite chagrined -- consistently negative on AAPL; always Debbie Downers when it came to AAPL -- now members of the Apple cult are opening bottles of champagne tonight
  • it will be interesting to hear what Cramer has to say in the a.m. He used to be very bullish on AAPL but has become more ambivalent over time
  • very disappointed in their analysis; LOL
  • but having said that -- for all those folks concerned about AAPL, today's a great day to sell their AAPL shares
  • they continue to be incredibly negative about Siri

Dividend history:

Anyway, readers better read my disclaimer:

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Following AAPL, the conversation switched to Peloton. The same guy who "hates" AAPL" thinks Peloton is a "buy." And his final stock pick for the show: PTON. Wow.

BR Case 30889 To Place Two Section Line Wells In A 7680-Acre Unit -- Two 3-Mile Horizontals -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47038BR.

From the NDIC May, 2024, hearing dockets, this is a case, not a permit:

Case 30888, BR, Elidah-Bakken, i) terminate two overlapping 2560-acre unit; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 16 wells, McKenzie County --

On a six section standup drilling unit, the company would likely put sixteen wells at the halfway mark and drill eight 3-mile wells to the north, and eight 3-mile wells to the south. Because it's a new drilling unit, in which there are no current wells, this means that the operator will drill sixteen wells in the six-section unit.

The maps

The case:

BR Case 30888 To Place Sixteen Wells In A 3840-Acre Unit -- Sixteen 3-Mile Horizontals -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47037BR.

From the NDIC May, 2024, hearing dockets, this is a case, not a permit:

Case 30888, BR, Elidah-Bakken, i) terminate two overlapping 2560-acre unit; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 16 wells, McKenzie County --

On a six section standup drilling unit, the company would likely put sixteen wells at the halfway mark and drill eight 3-mile wells to the north, and eight 3-mile wells to the south. Because it's a new drilling unit, in which there are no current wells, this means that the operator will drill sixteen wells in the six-section unit.

The case:

The maps




The wells on confidential list:

  • 36613, conf, BR, Shafer 2B-MBH, Elidah,
  • 36614, conf, BR, Sandie 2B-UTFH, Elidah,
  • 36615, conf, BR, Sandie 2C-UTFH, Elidah,
  • 36616, conf, BR, Sandie 2C-MBH, Elidah,

Three older, producing wells:

  • 19083, 183, CLR, Shafer 1-21H, Elidah, t10/10; cum 263K 3/24;
  • 19897, 681, CLR, Sivertson 1-9H, Elidah, t9/11; cum 524K 3/24;
  • 19776, 352, CLR, Rolla 1-33H, Elidah, t11/12; cum 288K 3/24;

Investing Jargon -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47036INV.

Strategic vs tactical portfolios. 

On the day JPow made his May, 2024, FOMC, remarks:

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A New Stripe -- Jiu Jitsu



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A Green Thumb


QCOM -- The Day After -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47035QCOM.

Today: QCOM up over 10% today. Holy mackerel: QCOM leads the NASDAQ 100 today. Wow. No recommendation. See disclaimers.


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Posted Yesterday, May 1, 2024

Locator: 47022TECH.

Tag: iPhone chips QCOM suppliers Skyworks Broadcom

Apple Central.

Just six months ago:

Apple suppliers, link here

From today, screenshots:


 

Link here.

Other screenshots from older sites:





 We'll discuss this later.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Starbucks -- Continues To Resonate With Me -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47034STARBUCKS.

This story continues to resonate with me. Continues to "bother" me. Can you imagine paying $8.40 for a regular coffee and a piece of bread. The CEO yesterday stressed the need for the company to "remind" folks of the "value added" that Starbucks. 

Years ago, Starbucks really did provide some "value added." But no longer. What's the "value added" in Starbucks these days. Most folks pick up their order and take it elsewhere. Folks are not "living" in Starbucks any more like they used to. Driving through to pick up a regular cup of coffee and a piece of break for $8.40 just seems crazy. 

The CEO can talk all about "value added," but bottom line: prices need to come down. And Starbucks will have huge problem with cutting prices. 

However, having said that, if the CEO can turn Starbucks around it will speak volumes about the resilience of the American consumer.

I'm not holding my breath.

The Cramer interview here.

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Previously Posted

Story of the day: Starbucks. Today, ticker -- worse day in almost two years. Right now, down significantly, nearly 20% in one day. Worse earnings miss in company's history. Second consecutive quarter with negative earnings; hasn't happened since the Covid lockdown.

Jim Cramer actually used the word "existential" when interviewing the Starbucks CEO this morning. Jim Cramer: "Is Starbucks coffee simply too expensive?" Wow -- hard-hitting interview. A must-watch interview. Will probably show up later today. Wow, Cramer was irritated. Wow. Amazing interview. Three huge headwinds: high prices; slow app order completion; boycotts in Mideast. 

Ticker: since Narasimhan became CEO:

  • SPX: up 28.75%
  • SBUX: down 21.86%

I go through phases. About a year ago I was going to Starbucks regularly and but then quit abruptly and completely. I haven't been in a Starbucks for at least a year. For me it simply got too expensive. The loyalty reward program was a joke.

Exhibit A: when flying to Portland, I used to stop at Starbucks to get a black coffee and a plain, not-particularly-tasty butter croissant -- price -- $8.40. That's unpalatable. $8.40 for a coffee and a croissant.

If a plain, regular-size coffee and a plain crosissant is costing $8.40, I would assume a "specialty" coffee and a real "entree" would trend toward $15. Carl Q and Cramer drink coffee made at home; David Faber, $2.00 coffee at nearby subway location (not Starbucks).

But Cramer brought up the other headwinds.

At the airport (and at the local Starbucks, for that matter, also) service is incredibly slow. At the airport, folks are standing around five to ten minutes (?) after placing their order -- and that's after standing in line. It really is incredibly slow. For a coffee and a croissant. The CEO admits there is a big problem with folks using their Starbucks App to start and order and then not complete it because it simply takes too much time.

The CEO broke down his customer base into three groups: the casual visitor, the loyal customer (me, a year ago); and the super-loyal customer.

The casual visitor is disappearing; the loyal customer is quickly becoming the casual customer. The question not asked: what percent of the customer base is the super-loyal customer and to what extent are super-loyal customers "buying down."

Boycotts. I had not given much thought to the Starbuck boycotts in the Mideast but with the recent dust-up in NYC (Columbia University) one must reconsider exactly how severe the "Mideast" boycott might be worldwide. I can't imagine those Hamas / Palestinian protestors in NYC stopping by Starbucks on the way home from the protests.

Anyway, enough of this. But $8.40 for a coffee and a plain croissant. Head-to-head at PDX, a Starbucks coffee/croissant for $8.40 vs an incredibly remarkable (in comparison) Big Mac meal for $9.25.

I can't imagine Starbucks prices coming down much:

SCCO -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47033COPPER.

If I had to pick one commodity, one company to follow, for the energy and EV transition over the next ten years, this would be it:


Add This To Elon Musk's Recent Announcements -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47032TESLA.

May 2, 2024: Tesla is pulling back from EV charging, and people are freaking out. Link to WSJ.

May 2, 2024: crossing the chasm -- five thoughts on Tesla's confusing metamorphosis. Link here.

From the linked WSJ article begins:

 Tesla’s move this week to lay off much of the team responsible for creating the largest and most successful electric-vehicle charging network in the U.S. threw the industry into a state of shock and confusion.

The layoffs halted construction work at a dozen Supercharger sites in Texas. In New York, property owners in negotiations with Tesla were left hanging as discussions about adding chargers to their sites were ongoing.

The upheaval comes as the EV industry struggles with sluggish sales growth and a bumpy rollout of a national highway-charging network.

The Tesla layoffs were sweeping and included employees in the sales force to those overseeing the construction of charging sites, according to people familiar with the decision. Contractors and executives at other automakers that have partnered with Tesla on charging described widespread confusion over the future of Tesla’s charging business.

Tesla has long been the bright spot in a messy charging world, outbuilding and outperforming other companies to create the closest thing the U.S. has to a national highway network, considered the linchpin to greater EV adoption. A Tesla pullback in EV charging could slow the entire U.S. market.

Tesla has been opening up its network to other kinds of cars and chasing—and winning—public funding for chargers, a boon to the Biden administration’s plans to build out national charging infrastructure. States have started to release the first wave of around $5 billion for a highway network, approved in the 2021 federal infrastructure law.

See this post, Musk's strategic change.

Now this, today

For Those Wondering Whatever Happened To Their Favorite Meteorologist -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47031ENTERTAINMENT.

Link here

There seems to be a lot to read between the lines.

Halo Effect, Hess' SC-JW Hamilton Wells -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47030B.

The wells:

  • 22041, 1,084, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-1, Long Creek, t7/12; cum 297K 2/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2024293573343133576108573385
BAKKEN1-20243028183021361956795268118
BAKKEN12-2023313162286038905187481364
BAKKEN11-2023302876272536754569421356
BAKKEN10-2023312667305539463947357274
BAKKEN9-2023302854275952384201382974
BAKKEN8-20231916991618407721971727299
BAKKEN7-20232316031608555422171743250
BAKKEN6-2023565099236726307
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-202328755942322117088513
BAKKEN2-202328884685334120389038
BAKKEN1-202331152611853991176506360
BAKKEN12-202231473672361113375964
BAKKEN11-20222912841085331127796919
BAKKEN10-2022312354684859936794
BAKKEN9-202230580641323100468524
BAKKEN8-20226940411263833
BAKKEN7-20227174237764253602
BAKKEN6-202230117814206222534216767

39311, drl/A, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-6, Long Creek, t6/23; cum 200K 2/24;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2024245643564276321802517891134
BAKKEN1-2024186009604072423354833305243
BAKKEN12-2023311354313721129556385263579273
BAKKEN11-2023301776817617118495255552230325
BAKKEN10-2023271700016972122823902838597431
BAKKEN9-2023302642326450168845554854921627
BAKKEN8-20232824693246951713744994370177977
BAKKEN7-20233137238372432487763725616612064
BAKKEN6-20233050787507021207469378680931285
BAKKEN5-202311247116638927890126

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today, Including "Almost" A Wildcat Madison Well Southwest Of Dickinson -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47029B.

Personal investing:

  • adding T to my position. Opportunity buy, not by rule.
  • adding DVN to my position. Opportunity buy, not by rule.

No recommendation. See disclaimers.

Today, timing will be everything: AAPL. It may not be a pretty picture for some.

COP: dividend declared; same as previous quarter -- 58 cents plus 20 cents. Record date, May 13, 2024.

Chart of the day, Bloomberg: all that Canadian LNG? California and China will both fight for it.

COP: EPS $2.03 in line.

Barron's take on EVs:

  • why hybrids are trouncing EVs? Price. Link here. Nah. People just don't like EVs.
  • gullible. Tesla investors think $25,000 EVs are possible. Link here. That doesn't even cover cost of batteries + software. No profit margins. At $25,000, manufacturer will be losing money on every EV sold. 

Just say "no" to Apple: Mercedes will do just fine; GM won't --

XOM-PXD: on track for announcement within the week. Link here. FTC approves major Exxon deal. PXD ticker: either investors are not paying attention or PXD price has been baked in for months. Also, here. A $60-billion payday for Scott Sheffield.

Devon: reminder -- Devon had an incredible 1Q24 -- almost one billion dollars in free cash flow in one quarter

Shell: another company reporting an incredible 1Q24. Link here. Shell reported a free cash flow for the 1Q24 of almost $10 billion. One quarter: $10 billion! Yikes!

Jargon: gearing, geared. To be one's own banker. Or not. Important concept during periods of high interest rates.

Liar, liar, pants on fire: Japan stands alone in the G7 when it comes to shutting down its coal-fired power plants. Link here. On another note: with so little economic growth over the past twenty years, what accounts for so much energy requirements?

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.54.

Friday, May 3, 2024: 4 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 267 for the year
None.

Thursday, May 2, 2024: 4 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 267 for the year
40177, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-16H,
39582, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LW-155-96-2634H-1, 

  • 39582:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20242308276962
1-20243037461332
12-20232642747792
11-20235079386252

  • 16083, IA/152, Hess, Anderson Smith 1-26H, t2/07; cum 261K 7/23; struggling.

RBN Energy: what might be the timing and scope of the ramp-up of gas into LNG Canada? Incredibly good summary of US Gulf coast LNG export terminals.

LNG Canada, under construction for nearly six years on Canada’s West Coast, is rapidly approaching the time when first gas will be entering the plant for testing and calibration of equipment, marking an important transformation for the Western Canadian natural gas market. This will kick off what will likely be about a yearlong testing process before officially entering commercial service in mid-2025. In today’s RBN blog, we consider daily gas flow data from the startup of similar-sized LNG plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast and develop a conjectural timeline for LNG Canada to help assess how much gas will flow to the site — and how soon — and when LNG exports might begin.