It's hard to believe this SeekingAlpha article by Michael Filloon is still available on the internet.
Archived.
The article begins:
There are no two better fields in the Williston Basin for middle Bakken results than Parshall and Sanish. Parshall and Sanish fields are the focal point of EOG Resources' (NYSE:EOG) and Whiting's (NYSE:WLL) Bakken plays. EOG and Whiting were some of the earliest operators; this kept acreage costs down but also provided its pick of the best leaseholds. These two fields have seen more development than any other area of the Bakken. All have very good results, but both have a different history. Geology is not much different, except the depth of the middle Bakken and Sanish Sands.
The Three Forks is also shallower than around the Nesson Anticline.
Shale thickness seems consistent in both the middle Bakken and Three
Forks. The isopach below shows Bakken thickness of over 120 feet. Keep
in mind thicker shale does not necessarily mean better EURs; it could
provide a larger number of locations. This is evident in the picture [at the article].
Whiting believes it can maintain seven locations per mile in the Sanish
Field. The lower Bakken shale is extremely thick in both the Sanish and
Parshall fields. It will maintain only three in the upper Three Forks.
The Hidden Bench prospect is very interesting as it plans to drill eight
locations in the middle Bakken, but this probably has to do with the
Bakken Silt being thicker in this area. The upper Three Forks could be a
big deal in this leasehold as it plans seven locations. It is twice as
thick as in Mountrail County. The Pronghorn Sands may have something to
do with this as well, but that is a guess on my part. Obviously, the
Bakken is the focus in both Parshall and Sanish.
The Three Forks is comprised of two to four layers or benches of shale.
The Three Forks has seen less development than the middle Bakken. EURs
of the Three Forks in Mountrail County have lagged other areas.
Northeast McKenzie County's Three Forks' locations have been the best in
play, but there have been excellent Pronghorn Sands results in Billings
and Stark counties. As seen above, the first bench of the Three Forks
is somewhat thin compared to McKenzie County.
Much more at the linked article, including some incredible graphics.
Meanwhile, dovetailing with this article, were comments sent to me by a reader about the same time I was re-reading the Filloon article above:
In the hydrocarbon world, your comments on the significance of 'stacked pay' are pretty much right on.
Some other time, I may delve a bit into the 'stuff' that I have learned in this
subject, with the Powder River Basin providing much of the raw data,
operators' approach, economical viability ... or lack thereof.
Pretty interesting topic that is much more complex than the superficial terms being bandied about might indicate.
Lastly,
for today, you may find it instructive to track the geologist's reports
on these Three Forks second bench wells, especially as the top of the
TF 2B is reached.
If the top of the next lower formation is
noted, all the better as you will be able to identify the thickness of
the second bench in that location.
(Note, while the KOP - Kick
Off Point - for the lateral will be [well] above the top of
the next lower formation, often operators will deliberately drill
deeper to get precise geological information.
They will then cement in this
exploratory 'hole' and resume the curve/lateral drilling).
The production numbers that both MRO and CLR are showing from these second bench wells are astonishing.
I am certain the other Bakken operators are monitoring these developments very closely.
In reply:
- yes, periodically, I do track the thickness of the various Three Forks benches;
- yes, I have often seen the operators drill lower than the target, then cement that in, come back up and continue with the lateral through the planned target; and,
- yes, the production numbers are astonishing. CLR's acreage is across most of the Bakken so their wells may vary significantly; MRO seems to be concentrated in a much smaller geographic area that is either an incredibly good area, or they have really optimized their completion strategies, or perhaps a bit of both.
