Saturday, March 21, 2020

Finally, I Had Time To See Why An Anti-Malarial Drug Might Be Effective In Treating Wuhan Flu -- March 21, 2020

Updates

April 4, 2020: Trump wins again. LOL.

Original Post

First of all, no one knows if chloroquine will work or not.

But most agree that the CDC is not being a bit helpful by saying that we need to have "controlled" studies before recommending the use of chloroquine to treat Wuhan flu.

The CDC, no doubt, proposes a "controlled" study that will take about five years. And then another year for the scientific paper to be peer-reviewed before it is published. 

The tail is truly wagging the dog.

From wiki, before we even get started:
Chloroquine was discovered in 1934 by Hans Andersag. It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system. It is available as a generic medication.
The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04. In the United States, it costs about US$5.30 per dose. [Why does that not surprise me?]
Now, connecting the dots:

How does the Wuhan flu virus get into our cells in the first place? Via lysosomes.

From wiki:
Chloroquine is also a lysosomotropic agent, meaning it accumulates preferentially in the lysosomes of cells in the body.
The pKa for the quinoline nitrogen of chloroquine is 8.5, meaning it is about 10% deprotonated at physiological pH as calculated by the Henderson-Hasselbalch equation.
This decreases to about 0.2% at a lysosomal pH of 4.6. Because the deprotonated form is more membrane-permeable than the protonated form, a quantitative "trapping" of the compound in lysosomes results. (A quantitative treatment of this phenomenon involves the pKas of all nitrogens in the molecule; this treatment, however, suffices to show the principle.)
The lysosomotropic character of chloroquine is believed to account for much of its antimalarial activity; the drug concentrates in the acidic food vacuole of the parasite and interferes with essential processes. Its lysosomotropic properties further allow for its use for in vitro experiments pertaining to intracellular lipid related diseases, autophagy, and apoptosis.
The Reader's Digest version:
The cells involved in the immune process in the human body preferentially take up the coronovirus via lysosomes -- sort of a Trojan horse virus if you will. Chloroquine preferentially degrades lysosomes from doing their job.
How Fido hears this: "blah, blah, blah, horse, blah, blah, blah."


If this works, tell me again how denying a 4-cent-pill to humanity was the right response to a pandemic?

By the way, if this works, it will be interesting to see who first connected the dots. I find this absolutely intriguing.

It appears it's a bit like a drug used to treat cancer. It requires enough of the drug to stop the Wuhan flu virus / stop the cancer without harming the patient. In other words, for chloroquine to work, one must use it in doses that put humans very, very close to the margin of safety.

Blindness? Once again, back to wiki:
The risk of toxicity is low for individuals without complicating conditions during the first 5 years of treatment using less than 6.5 mg/kg/day of hydroxychloroquine or 3 mg/kg/day of chloroquine, and/or cumulative doses of less than 1000 gram and 460 gram (total dose), respectively. 
Again, I think we are talking about using chloroquine for a month or less. Again, an example of an article with a "sensational" headline that is not helpful at all. Not once does it say how safe this drug is and how it's been used for decades to treat malaria.

I had to recheck to see where the article was published. Bloomberg. Okay. Whatever.

See the CDC pdf regarding chloroquine: the only contraindication -- people with psoriasis should not take chloroquine. The CDC pdf says there is no time limit for taking the drugs -- it can be taken for years. In fact, the CDC pdf downplays all risks. It will be interesting how fast the CDC changes these recommendations and risk warnings.

Wow, this takes me back to my days in the US Air Force and deployments to countries where malaria was endemic. Wow, great memories. Seriously. What I liked best: military physicians and surgeons pushing the envelope when saving lives in a combat zone. 

"Focus On Fracking" May Be Your Best Source For Real-Time Data -- March 21, 2020

It will be interesting to see if there is any information regarding Saudi imports this past week; probably too early. But again: for the time being -- maybe for the next six months -- the best source for estimating projected global oil in storage and imports will be "Focus On Fracking." The very detailed summaries come out weekly, late Sunday night, tomorrow.

Daily Note, Early Afternoon Edition -- March 21, 2020

Updates

Sunday, March 22, 2020: it's 9:00 a.m. and I'm still laying in bed. Not one responsibility until Sophia comes over later today. Nothing, nada, zilch. But I'm starting to stir. First thing: coffee. I have plenty of coffee. All kinds, but the Keurig which I thought I would never use -- it was a Christmas gift two years ago -- I love it. I still have a box half full of the "k" cups. But note: half full. Not a full box. Time to re-order. Two clicks or so, and a confirmation e-mail from Amazon that my order has shipped. 

Later, 8:39 p.m. CT: what an incredibly great day. Along with so much else, three back-to-back movies: "Bullitt," "Dial M For Murder," and, "Wait Until Dark." Of the three, one makes my "top-ten-movie" list.

Top ten movies.

Original Post

Twitter: A quick scroll through twitter reveals not much has changed.

Saudi surge: Apparently, not one Saudi crude oil tanker has yet reached US shores since the "announcement." Of course, this needs to be fact-checked but it comes from a fairly "reliable" if biased twit. I remember going through this drill some years ago. Same ol', same ol.' Regardless, Saudi is in a fight for its very survival. Glad to hear they feel "comfortable" giving away their lifeblood at

Price of gasoline: I've yet to hear many American consumers complain about price of gasoline coming down.

Seasonal flu: no one knows the real numbers. Most folks with "seasonal flu" probably manage the illness on their own, without seeing a physician or being tested. One can pick almost any number within a range, but for ballpark figures, the numbers are easy to remember, for the US, annual flu season, early October to late March:
  • 30 million cases
  • 300,000 hospitalizations
  • 30,000 deaths 
Amazon: it's hard to break old habits. I used to buy most grocery items and small unimportant every day items at the local grocer, Target, or Walmart. Now, every time a) I need something, b) think I might need something, or c) a family member says they need something, I order immediately from Amazon. I'm no longer waiting to "group" items. A number of items are out of stock at Amazon, but one can check daily which is easier than going to a local store. A few minutes ago I ordered rice. Amazon is pretty much out of rice, but there is still some left. The key here, for non-perishables, don't start looking when you are running out. Keep your pantry at the two- to four-week level. When you open a new package of any non-perishable, simply re-order at that time.

Meanwhile on TCM: "Creature From the Black Lagoon." I've turned the volume off (mute) but keeping it on in the background. Sort of how I used to watch NFL football games. For the life of me I can't figure out why these folks haven't left the "black lagoon" unless their boat, the Rita, is out of fuel or disabled. Let's see, Julie Adams born in 1926, the movie came out in 1954, she would have been about 28 years of age; in some scenes she looks much younger. I see they have just killed the monster. Kind of sad. Julie Adams died in 2019 at the age of 92.

Now, "Bullitt." Awesome.

Gardening: I'll probably plant a lemon tree on the patio (in one of those huge planters). It's a long, long story; lots of memories. My apartment complex neighbor has a lemon tree on her patio. She's had it since 2002. No typo. Since 2002. Also herbs (thyme, and rosemary). And, no, I will have to buy all of this locally, and not through Amazon.

Week 12: March 15, 2020 -- March 21, 2020

Quote of the week:
Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
  • Oil in free-fall; a demand story; a supply story; a story of panic; the "market meltdown / oil shock of 2020"
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:
  • ND locked down: coronavirus
  • "the bottom has just dropped out"-- priceof oil
  • ND weighs plan to keep some Bakken crude off market
  • ONEOK tables plans for gas plant expansion
  • ND crude oil production unlikely to fall below one million bopd
  • Hess to cut rigs to one and almost $1 billion in CAPEX cuts
  • Minot's Norsk Hostfest canceled for this year; will resume in 2021
  • US and Canada to close border to non-essential traffic
  • as total US crude oil imports have fallen, imports from Canada have increased 
Operators:
Operations:
Fracking:
Re-entry:
Pipelines:
Commentary:

Gasoline At $1.10 -- March 21, 2020


Middle Bakken: Great; First Bench: Better; Second Bench: Best -- March 21, 2020

These three wells were drilled from the same pad by the same company: the deepest well, a Three Forks 2nd bench well, about two months older; used significantly less proppant (14 million lbs vs 21 million lbs) and has produced twice the amount of oil as the middle Bakken well; and almost 60% more than the Three Forks first bench well.

Months of production/BOE cumulative
  • 35108, Three Forks first bench: about 7.75 months; 297,332 boe; best month: 36,639 bo
  • 35080, middle Bakken: exactly 7 months; 243,608 boe; best month: 40,993 bo;
  • 35081, Three Forks, second bench, 9.5 months; 464,916 boe; best month: 69,314 bo;
Disclaimer: in long notes like these, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

These three three-lateral Carson Peak wells on this pad swing north to capture most of section 26, and then swing south through section 35, and then terminate near the south line of section 2. 

These are the three Carson Peak wells. Note: the typical length of a "standard" Bakken well is 19,000 - 21,000 (maybe, 22,000) feet. The Morris wells, for example that swing north from this pad measure about 19,000 feet MD.

Note the depths on these wells. The vertical depths (TVDs) vary by less than 40 - 100 feet between middle Bakken wells and Three Forks wells in general across the Bakken. The intervening shale seams are 10 - 30 feet thick; the targeted seams are about 40 feet thick.

Depths:
  • 35080, 2,076, CLR, Carson Peak 7-35H, middle Bakken, Oakdale, t6/19; cum 207K; TD: 25,248 feet
  • 35108, 1,824, CLR, Carson Peak 6-35H1, Three Forks 1st bench, Oakdale, t5/19; cum 252K; TD: 26,152 feet
  • 35081, 3,556, CLR, Carson Peak 6-35H2, Three Forks 2nd bench, Oakdale, t5/19; cum 398K; TD: 25,320 feet;
Frack data:
  • 35080, middle Bakken: 53 stages; 20.62 million lbs
  • 35018, Three Forks, 1st bench: 54 stages; 20.67 million lbs;
  • 35081, Three Forks, 2nd bench: 52 stages; 14.21 million lbs;
***************************************** 
Production Profile Of Selected Wells

The wells:
  • 35081
    • Note: Three Forks second bench
    • Note: the relatively small amount of water returned compared to the huge amount of oil returned.
    • Note: 44K over 15 days extrapolates to 88K over one 30-day month.
    • Frack: 52 stages; 14.2 million lbs
    • Notes from the file report below the production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2020312303223092778824143228471115
BAKKEN12-2019312605926081973228697268721531
BAKKEN11-20193027355273291017928958243464290
BAKKEN10-201931306143058911237269021459611993
BAKKEN9-20193028746287691116729551232835952
BAKKEN8-20193140595406271596240748337636632
BAKKEN7-20193155133551352245954834473777043
BAKKEN6-201930506865083822437461913490010757
BAKKEN5-20193169314693743308774737660747832
BAKKEN4-20191544172437551728147768419335379
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20195189618963138142401424

From the file report:
  • target: Three Forks, second bench
  • Oakdale/Rocket play 
  • spud: September 9, 2018
  • TD: October 17, 2018
  • TD: a very deep, 25,320 feet (typical Bakken wells, 19,000 to 22,000 feet)
  • almost a true three section lateral; two full sections and 75% or so of the first section where the well is sited;
  • drilling operations began on September 9, 2018; H&P 535;
  • geological services began September 11, 2018, at 9,060 feet;
  • vertical operations completed with one planned trip and another for the curve assembly
  • KOP: 10,929';
  • curve drilled with a single drilling assembly; kicked off late on the morning of September 12, 2018,
    • note about the Bakken shale collapse issues in this region - previously posted; shallow entrance/exit angle; no collapse issues;
  • drilled out of the shoe on October 12, 2018
  • lateral: completed in three runs;
  • gas readings varied widely; 
    • gas buster brought on line at 12,056' MD after gas readings spiked to nearly 3,000 units
    • again, just after after 15,500' MD, readings often exceeded 3,000 units
    • at 21,500' MD, gas began building again; 3,500 - 4,000 units; faded to around 2,500 - 3,000 units through the last 1,300'  of the well;
  • depths:
    • upper Bakken shale: 11,224' TVD
    • middle Bakken member: 11,238' TVD (forty feet seam)
    • lower Bakken member: 11,278' TVD
    • Three Forks formation top: 11,295' TVD (first bench -- 43 feet seam)
    • internal 1 shale top of the Three Forks: 11,338' TVD (15 feet of shale)
    • Three Forks second bench: 11,353' 
  • ideal target: 15.5' thick; began 6.5' below the internal 1 shale base, extended 22' below the same reference point;
Based on limited data, just as the CDC bases coronavirus case fatality rates on limited data, suggests the second bench Three Forks is going to be twice as good as the middle Bakken, and upwards of 60% better than the first bench.

CLR's Carson Peak / Morris Wells In Oakdale Oil Field Have Been Updated -- March 21, 2020

This page will not be updated.

The CLR Carson Peak / Morris wells in Oakdale oil field are tracked here.

I believe this the complete list and current status of the CLR Carson Peak and Morris wells in Oakdale oil field.

They have been placed in descending order based on permit number which follows closely with their completion dates. There is a meme floating around out there that the daughter wells are much worse than the parent wells in unconventional (tight/shale) plays. That meme may have started in the Permian; it certainly does not hold true in the Bakken. Note the IPs and the cumulative production.
  • 35273, 2,405, CLR, Carson Peak 5-35H2, Oakdale, t6/19; cum 72K in less than two months; cum 246K 1/20;
  • 35272, 3,376, CLR, Carson Peak 4-35HSL, Oakdale, t6/19; cum 313K 1/20; huge well;
  • 35109, 956, CLR, Morris 7-26H2, Oakdale, t4/19; cum 196K 1/20; 27K well;
  • 35108, 1,824 CLR, Carson Peak 6-35H1, Oakdale,  t5/19; cum 252K 1/20; 37K well;
  • 35087, loc, CLR, Morris 11-26H, Oakdale,
  • 35086, loc, CLR, Morris 10-26H2, Oakdale,
  • 35085, loc, CLR, Morris 9-26H, Oakdale, 
  • 35084, loc, CLR, Carson Peak 10-35H1, Oakdale, 
  • 35083, loc, CLR, Carson Peak 9-35H, Oakdale,
  • 35082, 1,593, CLR, Morris 8-26H1, Oakdale, see this note; t4/19; cum254K 1/20;
    37K well;
  • 35081, 3,556, CLR, Carson Peak 8-35H2, Oakdale,  t5/19; cum 398K 1/20; 70K well; post production profile later;
  • 35080, 2,076, CLR, Carson Peak 7-35H, Oakdale,  t6/19; cum 207K 1/20; 40K well;
  • 34353, 2,913, CLR, Morris 4-23HSL, Oakdale, t3/19; cum 233K 1/20; 36K well;
  • 34352, 2,698, CLR, Morris 4-23HSL, Oakdale, t4/19; cum 205K 1/20; 36K well;
  • 34351, 1,969, CLR, Morris 6-23H, Oakdale, t4/19; cum 221K 1/20; a 36K well;
  • 18861, 759, CLR, Carson Peak 2-35H, t5/11; cum 727K 1/20; remains off line as of 8/19; remains off line 9/19; back on line 11/19;
  • 18860, 517, CLR, Morris 2-26H, t5/11; cum 309K 1/20; remains off line as of 5/19; two days in 6/19; fourteen days in 7/19; off line, 8/19; remains off line 9/19;
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, t5/11; cum 781K 1/20; nice production profile (5/18); huge jump in production;
  • 18858, 715, CLR, Morris 3-26H, t5/11; cum 499K 1/20; yes, a candidate for a re-frack; back on line 4/19; subtle halo effect; off line as of 7/19; back on line 8/19;
  • 17334, 811, CLR, Morris 1-23H, t11/08/ cum 346K 1/20; another re-frack candidate; off-line 5/18; back on line as of 6/18; back on line as of 4/19; looks like a pretty significant halo effect;
  • 17079, 559, CLR, Carson Peak 44-2H, t6/08; cum 335K 1/20; a re-frack candidate; off-line as of 5/18; back on line as of 31/9; no halo effect;
***************************************** 
Production Profile Of Selected Wells

The wells:
  • 35081
    • Note: Three Forks second bench
    • Note: the relatively small amount of water returned compared to the huge amount of oil returned.
    • Note: 44K over 15 days extrapolates to 88K over one 30-day month.
    • Frack: 52 stages; 14.2 million lbs
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2020312303223092778824143228471115
BAKKEN12-2019312605926081973228697268721531
BAKKEN11-20193027355273291017928958243464290
BAKKEN10-201931306143058911237269021459611993
BAKKEN9-20193028746287691116729551232835952
BAKKEN8-20193140595406271596240748337636632
BAKKEN7-20193155133551352245954834473777043
BAKKEN6-201930506865083822437461913490010757
BAKKEN5-20193169314693743308774737660747832
BAKKEN4-20191544172437551728147768419335379
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20195189618963138142401424