Monday, November 11, 2019

Huge Jump In Production For #19946 -- November 11, 2019

This is pretty funny but so typical of the Bakken.

Back on March 23, 2017, I asked this question:
Anyone want to hazard a guess what the production in #19946 will do when nine (9) neighboring wells are completed? Don't reply; it's a rhetorical question and we won't know for quite some time.
I don't know if I ever answered that question. Here's the production data for that well around the time the neighboring wells were fracked:
BAKKEN7-2018311253312642156831698716467210
BAKKEN6-201830116411177815963144571412532
BAKKEN5-20183012544124761971031052154651
BAKKEN4-201830136301379224382328519471038
BAKKEN3-201831162741616032399425327571186
BAKKEN2-20182010253977726971403126751156
BAKKEN1-201827749683292725613237012967
BAKKEN12-201729872478423868613508013218
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-2017128821443465180601676
BAKKEN8-20173127932436790505504755
BAKKEN7-20173127963118830505304753
BAKKEN6-20173026932403688487804578

The graphic and the well: posted at this site.

XTO's FBIR Blackmedicine Wells Have Been Completed/Reported -- November 11, 2019

Link here.

Erratic Production In The Bakken -- November 11, 2019

The well:
  • 33979, 161, BR, Kermit 4-8-32 MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 238K 9/19;
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20192219495196678349342581460218884
BAKKEN8-201931448994453919342733603349638214
BAKKEN7-20193024692485991408527261214
BAKKEN6-201910517253231832848348833405
BAKKEN5-2019191926719428715330837238285907
BAKKEN4-2019302609926117916646665423351958
BAKKEN3-2019191160611343240524164173005118
BAKKEN2-20191128258592342070
BAKKEN1-2019312651326423787835682686827860
BAKKEN12-2018312371123699714321501297517958
BAKKEN11-2018302333623347631321278380416952
BAKKEN10-2018313107831000749520455743212371
BAKKEN9-201824377537111582337829530
BAKKEN8-2018146046010877247315790

Is EOG About Ready To Exit The Bakken? -- November 11, 2019

A reader suggested EOG may be about ready to exist the Bakken.

Looking at this list of permits now canceled it's hard to disagree. This is an incredibly good area in the Bakken:
  • 31403, 1,447, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek, 36 stages, 27.65 million lbs t5/16; cum 308K 2/19;
  • 31388, PNC,
  • 31387, PNC,
  • 31386, PNC,
  • 31385, PNC,
  • 31384, PNC,
  • 31383, PNC
  • 31382, PNC
  • 31381, PNC,
  • 31380, PNC,
  • 31379, PNC,
  • 31378, PNC,
  • 31377, PNC,
  • 31376, PNC,
  • 31375, PNC,
  • 31374, conf,
  • 31257, PNC,
  • 31256, PNC,
  • 31255, PNC,
  • 31254, PNC,
  • 31253, loc,
  • 31252, PNC,
  • 31251, PNC,
  • 31250, PNC,
  • 31249, TA/127, EOG, West Clark 105-0136H,
  • 31248, 1,272, EOG, West Clark 104-0136H, Clarks Creek, 36 stages, 21.029 million lbs; t5/16; cum 188K 2/19;
  • 31247, 1,613, EOG, West Clark 103-0136H, Clarks Creek, 37 stages, 21.15 million lbs; t5/16; cum 196K 9/19;
  • 31246, PNC,

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 11, 2019

The market: "not in a million years," as they say, would I have expected the "market" to be as strong as it was today. The Dow might even eke out a slight gain before the day is over. I would have bet a fair amount that the market would have "crashed and burned" today. In fact, I thought I posted that on the blog but can't find it now. The market was primed for a huge fall today: a) profit-taking -- once a few large "sell orders" would have come through, the algorithms would have taken over -- on the sell side; b) China trade talk seems to be less optimistic today than it was Friday; and, c) light volume. Not only did the market "hold" pretty well, but some individual stocks did very well:
  • AAPL: quite remarkable, to say the least -- up another $1.75 today, on a day I would have expected a pretty good pullback
  • ENB: up almost a percent
  • KMI: down about half a percent
  • BAX: up half a percent;
  • ABBV: up half a percent;
  • But look at this: Boeing up almost 5%; up almost $17 on a $365-stock
  • BAX: up about half a percent
  • ABBV: up about a third of a percent
  • IMUX: down almost 3%; down 24 cents;
  • TSLA: up 2.5%; up over $8
  • CVX: down 0.1%
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Others:
  • SRE: up 0.2%, surprising
  • BRK-B: down about a third of a percent
  • D: down almost a percent
  • F: up 2 cents; stays above $9
  • UNP: up 50 cents; again, surprising
************************************
OXY: Starting To Sell Assets

On the block:
  • Anadarko assets in Wyoming, Colorado -- up to $700 million -- Reuters, published today
    • 200,000 net acres
    • $66 million / year in cash flow
    • $700 million / 200,000 = $3500/acre (very similar to the "number" Equinor received for Eagle Ford assets
  • a four-story office building in the heart of the Permian (shows how desperate things have become -- a story about selling a four-story building); Bloomberg via Rigzone;
************************************** 
Global Warming Or Grand Solar Minimum?
Now We're Up To 300 -- Last Week It Was "Only" 170


From the AP:
  • Arctic blast to break more than 300 records across the US
  • eastern two-thirds of the continental US
  • the next five to seven days won't just be cold-- they'll be record-breaking
  • five to seven days
  • O'Hare, Chicago:
    • weather already claimed one airline incident, an American Eagle flight sliding off the runway
    • by 11: 00 a.m. ET more than 600 flights in/out of O'Hare/Midway were canceled due to weather conditions 
****************************************
Dallas Football

Highest paid runner in the NFL:
Ezekiel Elliott finished the evening with 20 carries for 47 yards. His longest run was 6 yards. With 1:33 remaining and the outcome on the line, he carried twice from the Minnesota 11-yard line, losing 3 yards.
Back-of-the-proverbial envelope:
  • 47 / 20 = 2.35 yards/carry

From The Most Rational Man In The Universe -- Flashback -- 1978

The next ice age. LOL.

Leonard Nimoy, the most rational man in the universe

This is so interesting, and had I not blogged, it's likely I never would have known.

Leonard Nimoy -- known for his rational thinking, his scientific curiosity. He narrates the world-famous film at the Griffith Observatory --
The 190-seat Leonard Nimoy Event Horizon presentation theater dramatically expands the Observatory's programming and education capabilities. The Leonard Nimoy Event Horizon realizes an unfulfilled intention of the Observatory's original architects to have a second theater to complement the planetarium.
Though not constructed with the original building, the idea for a presentation theater was not lost, and the need became especially evident as the number of Observatory visitors and programs increased over the years.
The public presentation - "The Once and Future Griffith Observatory" - is a 24-minute film which weaves the history, recent renovation, and future of the Observatory into a tale of observation and inspiration. The theater also hosts live programs and demonstrations including All Space Considered and Let's Make a Comet. The Leonard Nimoy Event Horizon is also a classroom for the Observatory's school programs. 
There was never any science behind global warming; it was a global scam. But "ice age"? Lots of science behind it. 


From a scientist, sent to me by a reader, November 13, 2019, validating my "science" remarks and the science as stated by Leonard Nimoy:

Descent into the next Glacial Period perhaps within our lifetimes

The effects of global cooling will be far more devastating than global warming. 
-- Gregory F. Fegel
Unlike the current CO2-caused Global Warming hysteria, the threat of an approaching “Ice Age” Glacial Period that was presented in the 1970s was based on solid science — including the combined evidence of the geologic record, ice cores, sea sediments, and pollens, all of which matched the cyclical insolation (amount of sunlight) pattern caused by the orbital Milankovitch cycles.
In the 1970s, it was confirmed that the Milankovitch cycles cause the Ice Age cycle — which is taught in earth-science textbooks.
In the 1970s, the media emphasized the fact that a large change in the Earth’s mean global temperature could happen within decades — in that way the media promoted “global cooling hysteria” in the 1970s. In spite of the fact that the climate in the 1980s and 90s became warmer, the scientific evidence for an approaching Glacial Period was valid, and it remains valid. Some scientists claim that our current warm interglacial (the Holocene) will be different from the previous interglacials by lasting twice as long — giving us another 15,000 years of a warm climate. However, that theory of a warm 15,000-year extension is speculative.
Based on the regularity and timing of the Ice Age cycle so far, we should expect the descent into the next Glacial Period to begin (approximately) within hundreds of years, or perhaps within our own lifetimes. The idea that either natural or anthropogenic causes will intercede to prevent the next Glacial Period from returning within its usual time-frame is speculative — and it is perhaps a result of wishful thinking.
If planners and governments want to prepare for a substantial “climate change” in the future, it’s global cooling they should be concerned about, not global warming.
Firstly, because severe global cooling is more likely to happen (eventually). Secondly, because the effects of global cooling will be far more devastating than global warming. A global sea-level rise caused by global warming would be easier to cope with than arctic conditions in Northern Europe, Russia, Canada, and Alaska caused by global cooling.
A warmer global climate would be a net benefit for all life on Earth.

Norway's Equinor will Sell US Eagle Ford Assets To Spain's Repsol -- November 11, 2019

Updates

Later, 2:36 p.m. CT: see comments. A reader has provided the link to ShaleProfile's September, 2019, update. One may want to compare the EIA dashboard with projected production through November, 2019.  The Director's Cut is scheduled to be released this Friday, November 15, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. This is getting deep into the weeds but September, 2019, might be an interesting month to note "production" vs "runs." September, 2019, one of the wettest, if not the wettest, September on record should have huge effect on "runs." Production may or may not be as greatly affected.

Original Post
Link at Rigzone. Data points:
  • $325 million deal.
  • 69,000 net acres
  • back-of-the-proverbial envelope: $5,000 / acre
  • In a statement:
“This transaction supports Equinor’s strategy to optimize our onshore U.S. portfolio, enhancing our financial flexibility and focusing our capital on our core activities in the country,” Torgrim Reitan, Equinor’s executive vice president for Development and Production International, said in a company statement.
“The US is a core area for Equinor, demonstrated by recent acquisitions including assets in the Gulf of Mexico, onshore acreage in the Austin Chalk and the Empire Wind project offshore New York,” he added.
  • The Bakken was not mentioned as a core are for Equinor, which I find quite strange. Were they being politically correct by mentioning an offshore wind project instead? Probably.  
  • Later: see first comment and my reply. Time to take another look at Equinor in the Bakken
    • Equinor's website: hard to find any mention of the Bakken but also very hard to find anything on their Austin Chalk play
***********************************
Enbridge

Link at Rigzone: Enbridge adding more pipeline capacity. Data points:
  • Enbridge: North America's largest pipeline company
  • adding about 100,000 bopd by optimizing its current system; up from a previous forecast of 85,000 bbls
  • Line 3,  replacement and expansion, $7 billion
  • expects its distributable cash flow for the year to exceed the midpoint of its guidance range
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

***********************************
Looking For Dividends
"3 out of 5 ain't bad"

Barron's: five stocks with big, steady dividends, November 4, 2019:
  • AT&T: 5.3%
  • Schlumberger: 6.1%
  • AbbVie: 5.4%
  • Simon Property Group: 5.6%
  • Iron Mountain: 7.5%
***********************************
First, It Was TDS; Now, ADS

October 21, 2019, issue, of The New Yorker: "Is Amazon Unstoppable?" Eighteen pages of pleasure.

The Work That Needs To Be Done In The Bakken Will "Never" End -- Updating The CLR Kennedy-MIles Pad -- November 11, 2019

The wells on the CLR Kennedy-Miles pad are all coming back on line. Several of them were on the IA list for several months, but it appears they are all active again; the few that might still be off line will probably also come back on line this next month (paperwork lags about two months what is going on in the field.

I was almost done updating the pad when Sophia woke up. We are now on our way to McDonald's for breakfast!

The CLR Kennedy-Miles pad is followed here.

********************************
Veterans Day

What a great day. No school for Sophia so we have the day together. We will go to numerous fast-food restaurants today. The library will be our main destination. We pick up Grammy at the airport at 1:30 p.m.this afternoon. 

Random Update Of A Huge Petro-Hunt Well In The Charlson That Just Went Over 1,000,000 Bbls -- November 11, 2019

I've followed this well for quite some time and have posted updates several times.

This page will not be updated, but I figure that a well that goes over a million bbls in the Bakken deserves a stand-alone post. In this case, note the times this well has had a jump in production.

It would be interesting to know the likely percentage of OOIP that this well is capturing.

The well:
  • 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, Charlson, t11/11; cum 1.026493 million bbls 9/19;
Based on data from FracFocus, this well has never been refracked.

Production to date:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20192686448320388620130163418323
BAKKEN8-2019311157811302503323712135969900
BAKKEN7-2019311143411359500621022145076299
BAKKEN6-2019301104711170473018478525013019
BAKKEN5-2019291140511302521021183114189563
BAKKEN4-2019301351713749546020857132937356
BAKKEN3-2019311548715662574223353194283709
BAKKEN2-2019281513215103429721178174533530
BAKKEN1-2019311866018742503324830176766939
BAKKEN12-2018159183833030481068490861496
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20181232613644743708758111197
BAKKEN9-20183092779448198516977142652503
BAKKEN8-2018319216904021161796017618126
BAKKEN7-201831972498732209178901759579
BAKKEN6-201830106501110228551646116076176
BAKKEN5-20183111129105732472170021670482
BAKKEN4-201830111911139025491651415353952
BAKKEN3-2018311171011530243316543163270
BAKKEN2-201828111341123024701623115528508
BAKKEN1-2018311272412821290218163179470
BAKKEN12-20173113263129402992176331734374
BAKKEN11-201730131171345431081676982098351
BAKKEN10-2017311443914496328219217019001
BAKKEN9-2017301267412004368216658016477
BAKKEN8-20174501690858618390
BAKKEN7-20173151755311460810878920
BAKKEN6-2017305032503240573026873220
BAKKEN5-20173150544857418896227176029
BAKKEN4-201730533756095278791852260
BAKKEN3-20173157065469480897287560
BAKKEN2-20172853435422447834781520
BAKKEN1-20173166186749572932191050
BAKKEN12-201627495849284057677745641
BAKKEN11-20163059816106513851183020
BAKKEN10-20163161336120552941291960
BAKKEN9-20163061735929557943592260
BAKKEN8-20163168987184617106639790660
BAKKEN7-2016286046583048277987493105
BAKKEN6-201630642465895337351707765
BAKKEN5-20163167966533558819379770
BAKKEN4-20163069467205607903888280
BAKKEN3-20163173017386622821080000
BAKKEN2-2016246513615762677797172415
BAKKEN1-201623570458626889394907899
BAKKEN12-20153179458148794146731437086
BAKKEN11-2015308636843394115703154930
BAKKEN10-2015308957914610541434513804345
BAKKEN9-2015308520821368116447103415896
BAKKEN8-2015318888915379616914618010518
BAKKEN7-201531108631100213332018419081886
BAKKEN6-2015301029510306104415883156730
BAKKEN5-20153111035107078671575215291245
BAKKEN4-20153011438115408871848796808597
BAKKEN3-20153110827109417101207611640219
BAKKEN2-2015289185913754599069304406
BAKKEN1-201531123961279674625669232872165
BAKKEN12-201431144581453310391560872398279
BAKKEN11-20141556755310700666006569
BAKKEN10-201431152541577032715982104885277
BAKKEN9-2014963405735189645343902000
BAKKEN8-20140000000
BAKKEN7-20140000000
BAKKEN6-20140000000
BAKKEN5-20140000000
BAKKEN4-20142000000
BAKKEN3-20140000000
BAKKEN2-20140000000
BAKKEN1-20141236873884267605105967
BAKKEN12-2013319592969374615683015655
BAKKEN11-201330961793336721911890969818
BAKKEN10-20133110431103507371571097765718
BAKKEN9-20133010349101607091555485896755
BAKKEN8-20133110993118577961953925919063
BAKKEN7-20133111322106858322078811820453
BAKKEN6-201330113671172685720668146918989
BAKKEN5-201331122961179289921189240418569
BAKKEN4-201330125591262989922272357218490
BAKKEN3-201331132391323495720581148105554
BAKKEN2-201328125831282795620032186461190
BAKKEN1-20133114595144421100248271213812472
BAKKEN12-2012311554815648114726279511120951
BAKKEN11-20123016056159161259281491214415795
BAKKEN10-20123117610177671331310201963611167
BAKKEN9-20123018315183661573357041397721517
BAKKEN8-2012312136921695184035574296215735
BAKKEN7-2012302113020982165435137267478180
BAKKEN6-2012302467924635201239531365682753
BAKKEN5-201231270392753019213779637465114
BAKKEN4-2012302874228340208238850318876753
BAKKEN3-20123128251280471752367981798118601
BAKKEN2-2012292550125435138130823280372582
BAKKEN1-2012313003430262155340472345735689
BAKKEN12-20113133358333241563404522146218774
BAKKEN11-2011142128420366117724965024867
BAKKEN8-20110000000

The graphic: