Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Bakken Economy And What We'll Be Watching For Wednesday -- April 25, 2017

Remember: the Bakken is an "oily" play.

They May Be Waiting A Long Time
From Financial Times:
Oil traders banking on a sustained market recovery in 2017 are growing impatient.

As the price of Brent crude falls towards $50 a barrel, Opec, energy analysts and some of the most powerful banks in the commodities sector are urging traders to maintain their composure. After a production cut deal between the cartel and rivals such as Russia was agreed late last year, prices began 2017 $10 a barrel higher and hedge funds quickly amassed record bets backing the push to end the biggest slump in more than a decade.

Confidence has since been shaken as evidence that the cuts are working takes longer than anticipated to materialise. Global crude inventories remain stubbornly high and, crucially, the US shale industry has been reinvigorated by the run up in prices last year. 
The graphic at the link won't instill any "confidence."

Too Big To Fail

On January 31, 2017, I wrote:
My hunch after XOM reported 4Q16 earnings today: XOM is in deep trouble. What could go wrong?
Today, over at Bloomberg via Rigzone: ExxonMobil and its annual dividend -- to be announced Wednesday, April 26, 2017.

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

From Rigzone, today:
The undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Barents Sea are twice as large as previously assumed, according to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s new calculations.
The NPD recently mapped the eastern part of the northern Barents Sea, a large part of which is located in a previously disputed area. With new information to hand, the NPD revealed that undiscovered resources in the Barents Sea have now been increased to nearly 65 percent of the total undiscovered resources on the Norwegian shelf, up from a previous total of 50 percent.
The resources in the new area are estimated at 1.4 billion standard cubic metres of oil equivalents. This is equivalent to 14 Johan Castberg fields, and more than five times the Snøhvit field.
1.4 billion standard cubic meters of oil equivalent = 9 billion boe (source).

Wells I No Longer Follow -- April 25, 2017

This is simply some housekeeping. Nothing new here. This has all been posted before. The page where this came from was getting too long. These are wells that I was watching for some reason or other; once I saw what I wanted to see, I "closed" them out.

Page 5
Page 4

March 4, 2017: check on halo effect on #25827 -- no halo effect. It was taken off-line when this well was fracked:
  • 31508, 1,655, CLR, Akron Federal 7-27H, Banks, 4 sections, t1/17; cum --
March 16, 2017: 25266, 25267, 25268 -- all off line while Rolfson N wells were being fracked; check on their status and if there is a bump, look at the graphic. They all showed a small, but clearly discernable, bump in production.

February 28, 2017: reader wants to know why this well -- #22389, Norgard -- might have gone off-line 12/16; check back in a few months. See comment at this post. Update: As of 3/17 nothing in the file report to suggest why this well was taken off-line 12/16; it's back on-line; production not changed much.

November 27, 2016: 18912, IA/442, EOG, Austin 125-30H, Parshall, t7/10; cum 124K 4/17; went off-line 4/16; back on-line 10/16; no bump in production noted as of 6/17;

December 12, 2016: 17870, A/IA/796, EOG, Fertile 7-06H, 1 section, Parshall (56,000 bbls in 104 days), t9/09; cum 315K 11/20; taken off-line 11/15; back on-line 10/16 for 2 days; minor (one bbl) spill reported while work-over rig on pad, August, 2016; remains off-line as of 2/17; see update here; back on-line and looks like it might be a decent well. 

July 12, 2015: a failed frack; something else going on?
  • 27885, 130, Hess, BW-R Peterson-149-99-1102H-4, 1 stage frack, 200K lbs sand, t6/15; cum 19K 2/17; active but still a lousy well in 11/20;
February 28, 2015: new operator in the Bakken? Basin Shale ND, LLC, seen in the March, 2015, dockets. (not listed in "NDIC Well Search Data Base" as of 11/15).

October 25, 2014:
Regarding the following well, a sundry form received June 6, 2014, suggests OXY USA will be re-entering this well to test the Madison, as well as possibly other formations:
  • 17899, PA/TA/1,191, Lime Rock Resources/OXY USA, Stroh 11-1H, Lot 4 1-143N-97W, Cabernet, 1,191, t9/09; cum 157K 12/12; went off-line 1/12; remains off-line as of 12/16;
October 22, 2014:
  • 28112, PA/11, Legacy, Legacy Berge 13-31H, North Souris, a Spearfish well, 28 stages, 246K proppant, t6/14; cum -- (search #28112 in mail for follow-up); remains IA 9/15; active as of 10/15 for 10 days; on-line a few days between 10/15 and 1/16, but no production;
July 19, 2017August 23, 2014, the EOG "400-series" wells. Looks like something might be happening with #29190 (noted 9/16). September 14, 2018: continues to struggle; still a lousy well in 11/20;

July 19, 2017: The wildcats northwest of Minot, posted March 30, 2014. September 4, 2018: pretty much all duds.

February 7, 2017: #18224, huge well; went off-line 11/16; 30336 (API: 33-053-06616). Probably getting ready to frack nearby. A CLR Hendrickson well. Yes, #30336 was fracked in January, 2017. See update here

March 1, 2017: #18414, the Helsingborg Federal wells. Update: May 10, 2017 -- this is really cool -- there was a jump in production when the well came back on line. See link.

March 24, 2017: #18251; this well is inactive with a waiver; it's a great well; see if it ever comes back on status. Update: damaged well; fish stuck in hole; too expensive to repair with prices where they are; now PA as of 11/17.

October 15, 2015: why was this staggering natural gas well taken off-line in August, 2015? #21235. It looks like they are trying to bring this well back on-line; e-mail exchange between operator and NDIC in February, 2016. Check production 12/16, 1/17, 2/17 -- back on line for one day 11/16, but it looks like it's being plugged. PA noted 3/17.

April 3, 2017: 18218, check on that well's production in a couple of months. Nearby wells were just completed (see #32460) and 2/17 production extrapolates to 7,000 bbls/month which would be a significant jump in production

March 21, 2017: #32801 is clearly a first bench well, but the graphics suggest a second bench. Look at the geologist's report when it finally becomes available. Update: geologist's report posted -- a first bench well.

December 18, 2016: follow-up on this well, #18705. There was a recent bump-up in production after being off-line for a few months; another well in the region might have been fracked during this period -- but if so, look how far away that new well (#30411) was.

January 29, 2017: #20510, look at the production profile and the NDIC map for all the activity in this area after the well was fracked. 

March 28, 2017: check #18786 when it comes back on-line to see if there was a bump in production after Smokey well running opposite direction was completed late 2016, #31050.  Also, take a look at  #21442, and #21439. Update: huge jump in production for #18786.

January 9, 2017: look for halo effect on these two wells (#21992, #21306) in March, 2017, time frame; following completion of #32264, #32265, #32266, and #32287. None.

January 9, 2017: look for halo effect on these two wells (#22462, #22465) in March, 2017, time frame; following completion of #31420, #31419, #32630 on same pad (not yet drilled) and following completion of all wells on a 4-well pad to the north (#29183, #29182, #29181, 2#9180). None.

January 7, 2017: f/u #20629; post-neighbor-frack production; modest increase. Patterson 1-13H, Camp, t10/11; cum 389K 11/20;

December 23, 2016: follow-up on the Gudmunson wells after March, 2017. Producing wells were taken off-line 10/16, suggesting the new wells would be fracked before the end of 2016.

November 27, 2016: 17170, A/PWI/667, EOG, Wayzetta 4-16H, Parshall, Bakken, s4/08; t7/08; AL; 506K 10/20; pretty impressive -- no pump; >300K after 3 years; a short lateral; 6 frack stages (?); go back and check reason for huge bump-up in 1/14; update/followed here. Now on a pump, 10/18;

November 27, 2016: 17215, EOG, Austin 27-10H, t12/08; cum 714K 11/20; inactive as of early 2/16; check on bump up in 8/16 after being off-line in early 2016; production doubled after going back on status in May, 2016; I don't see a nearby well fracked. A graphic of this area has been completed; posted for a few minutes and then placed in draft status. Will be brought back up in a few weeks. 

November 27, 2016: 18912, 442; EOG, Austin 125-30H, Three Forks, t7/10; cum 135K 3/19; 17 stages; 2 million lbs sand; off-line as of 4/16; back on-line as of 10/16; off line 8/20; struggling;

November 5, 2016: check up on #31249 -- it looks like EOG has converted this well to a SWD well, but need to confirm.  See August 30, 2016, daily activity report.  TA. But does not appear to be a SWD.

November 5, 2016: update on the Flatland Federal wells; note that a well on the 5-well pad must have had some problems; all wells on that pad came off-line in the summer of 2016, but are now coming back on line. It looks like #30775 will be abandoned; something obviously went wrong after the 31-stage frack. Will watch for awhile to see if they try to save this well. Noted 12/16. #30775 is AB, 10/18; nothing new, 3/19;

May 22, 2016: Slawson takes a huge Big Bend well off-line, #18575. Back on-line 5/16 but still needs more follow-up. January 5, 2016: this big well went off-line 11/15:
  • 18575, 1,007, Slawson, Hunter 1-8-17H, Big Bend, t6/11; cum570K 3/19; off-line all of 11/15; only one day production 1/16; only one day production 2/16; IA as of 3/16; back on line as of 6/16; update here. Check a few more months and then remove from this page (look at the halo effect on one of the Hunter wells, #18575). Back on line 6/16 and turns out to be a great well.
18408: flowing, no pump; ever fracked? In same section as 17263. As of October 25, 2014, no frack data in file; sundry form scanned in but no frack data.  In 11/15; noted to be AB; then 2/17, noted to be TA. Check when #26640 and #26641 were fracked.
  • 26640: AB, API - 33-061-02757, fracked 4/13 - 21/2014
  • 26641: API - 33-061-02758, fracked 4/12 - 22/2014, t6/14; cum 332K 3/19;
  • 18408: API - 33-061-01156: never fracked, not found at FracFocus; as of 11/15, TA; 2/17; TA.

Random Note On CLR's Anna Wells -- April 25, 2017

Random update on some wells that a reader was interested in some months ago.

The "original note":
  • February 15, 2017: CLR's Anna well pad; a reader asked about them; all wells are SI/NC, but sundry form suggests CLR planned to complete them 1/17, but no evidence yet that is occurring. #30157, #30156, #30155, #30154, #32969, #32968, #32967, #32966. Watch for #23279 coming off-line -- that will be hint that wells are about to be fracked. [Update, #23279 came off-line 1/17.]
As noted above, #23279 is now off-line, suggesting that the CLR Anna well pad could soon be completed. Just a hunch.

Note to self: this is simply a random note posted as an update. This post will not be updated.

A Must-Read On State Of "Renewable" Energy -- April 25, 2017

Wind and solar "energy" advocates are now complaining that subsidies for nuclear reactors are killing Algore farms. From the article:
If reducing greenhouse gas emissions is important, nuclear power is the obvious answer. If reducing greenhouse gas emissions at a reasonable cost is important, natural gas is the obvious answer.  If treading water is important, wind is the obvious answer.  If failure is important, solar is the obvious answer. 
The graphics are incredible. This is a keeper; a must-read. Even those among the Algore crowd who cannot read, the graphics are fairly straightforward.

Be sure to read the comments.


Meager List Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List For Rest Of Week -- April 25, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs492684182186

Seven new permits:
  • Operators: NP Resources (3), Lime Rock Resources (2), Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Elkhorn Ranch (Billings); Cabernet (Dunn); Truaw (Williams)
  • Comments:
Two permits renewed:
  • WPX: two Edward Goodbird permits in Dunn County
Seven permits canceled:
  • BR: four Outlaw Gap permits; one Ranvan permit; and, one Helson permit, all in McKenzie County  
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 29476, 448, CLR, Kukla 4-16H, Chimney Butte, 4 sections, t4/17; cum --
Dry holes:
  • BR reported four dry holes, #32076 - 32079, inclusive; four CCU Badger wells in Dunn County; not much in the file report to explain what was going on; one thinks that it was simply not an economic four-well to continue; I believe these were spud but not completed.
Wells coming off confidential list over the rest of the week:

Friday, April 28, 2017
  • 32580, 1,003, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-14H, Four Bears, Three Forks, 35 stages, 5.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 56K 3/17;
  • 32627, SI/NC, BR, Anderson Ranch 3C-MBH, no production data,
  • 32684, 2,695, WPX, Grizzly 24-13HG, Spotted Horn, t3/17; cum --
Thursday, April 27, 2017
  • 32626, SI/NC, BR, Blegen Ranch 3D TFH-ULW, Camel Butte, no production data,
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
  • 31761, SI/NC, Hess, HA-State-LW-152-95-1621H-1, Hawkeye, no production data,

32580, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-14H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Bakken Economy: Watford City Latest To Join Craft Brewery Business -- April 25, 2017

Huge spelling error in the headline at the link -- one too many tastings while doing the story? On the menu:
  • the Heartless, a blond ale
  • the Maah Daah Ha, an IPA
Website here.

Fracking Isn't Contaminating Groundwater -- Study

Link here. Data points:
  • studied groundwater in northwestern West Virginia
  • peer-reviewed European journal
  • no indication of groundwater contamination over the three-year course of the study
  • but surface could be contaminated by above-ground spills 
Back To The Routine

I returned home (Grapevine, TX) from a full week in Portland. Great trip all around. Except for two craft beers in Portland, no other beer or spirits. I guess among everything else it can count as a de-tox trip. Sort of. LOL.

It was also a full week of no television. I stayed with our younger daughter. She and her husband have not one television in their home. It mostly has to do with the cost of cable. I did not miss television, not even the sports. I happened to catch bits of NBA championship playoff games when out for the evening.

Last night, upon return, I did turn on our television to see what TCM was showing: The Way We Were. I had seen it long, long ago, but didn't recall much of it. Great, great story line. Not much chemistry between Robert Redford and Barbara Streisand. The scenes of them in California were "over-the-top" -- not really believable. Glad I saw it but I can see why the movie received Oscars only for music, I believe. But it was a huge year for movies. 

Monday's Daily Activity Report -- April 25, 2017

Four new permits:
  • Operator: NP Resources
  • Field: Elkhorn Ranch (Billings)
  • Comments:
Wells released from tight hole (conf) status reported earlier.

Three permits renewed:
  • WPX: three Big Horn permits in Dunn County
Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 25407, 606, QEP Energy, MHA 4-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, 4 sections, t4/17; cum --
  • 25408, 1,174, QEP Energy, MHA 2-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, 4 sections, t4/17; cum --
  • 25409, 588, QEP Energy, MHA 3-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, 4 sections, t4/17; cum --
  • 25410, 1,416, QEP Energy, MHA 1-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, 4 sections, t4/17; cum --
  • 30235, 439, Slawson, Jugard Federal 5-26-35TFH, Big Bend, t2/17; cum 18K 2/17;
  • 31051, 1,973, Whiting, Smokey 2-16-21-16H3,  Pembroke, t4/17; cum --
  • 31052, 2,344, Whiting, Smokey 2-16-21-16H, Pembroke, t4/17; cum --

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #24 -- April 25, 2017

Two days ago I posted this headline: US Shale (And US Gulf Of Mexico) Too Much For OPEC. The Bloomberg story was focused on US shale but I added that little bit about Gulf of Mexico. Today, RBN has a post all about the gulf, suggesting that oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has hit an all-time high.

Gulf Of Mexico Crude Production Hits All Time High -- April 25, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs482684182186

RBN Energy: Gulf of Mexico crude oil production hits all-time high.

Scott Adams: WhenHub hackathon -- an example of systems over goals. 

The Energy And Market Page, T+94 -- April 25, 2017

Whoopee! EW up 10% on strong earnings, strong guidance. Up 1% during the day; up 10% after-hours trading. Wow, wow, wow. 

Boom. NASDAQ hits 6,000 for first time. CNBC talking heads' response: hmmmm, confusion.

Boom. Quite a day yesterday. One always wonders what the next day will bring after a day like yesterday. Right now futures up 108 points for the Dow 30.

Boom: 261 issues on the NYSE hit new 52-week highs today (after a huge run-up yesterday):
  • new highs include: CAT, MCD, 
  • new lows: 16
Boom: 252 issues on the NYSE hit new 52-week high yesterday; new lows, only 16

Bust: could Aramco be worth $500 billion less than Saudis think?

No traction: WTI trades near $49.

Surprise. Iran now ranks as #2 oil supplier to South Korea, the first time Iran has ever achieved that distinction: #2 supplier to South Korea for a full quarter.

SAX. I don't think there's a ticker symbol yet for the Saudi Aramco IPO. I'm not even sure it's been formally announced which exchange SAX will go with: a New York exchange or one in Europe or London. Saudi announced two advisors earlier (JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley) and now announces a third: HSBC Holdings, Europe's biggest bank. 


Surprise: talking head over at CNBC repeats something that analysts have been saying for qite some time:
  • no (significant) inflation now
  • no (significant) inflation on the horizon
  • US inflation concerns misplaced
Macroeconomics is way beyond "my pay grade" as we used to say. Googling the issue will probably provide more than enough discussion on both sides of the issue. Right now, it's an open-book test.

The Political Page, T+94 -- April 25, 2017

Sanctuary: California judge puts injunction on Trump's injunction order. Mounts to a hill of beans. On the other side of the coin, I've always said that I'm all in favor of sanctuary cities, as long as they aren't in Texas. LOL. I find it incredible that there are Americans out there who want the majority of criminals flocking to their cities. This is not rocket science.

NOKO: Entire US Senate meets on White House campus regarding Korea?

Charging problem? Supercharger congestion is becoming a huge problem, and getting worse.

Lumber tariffs: perfect. Go, Donald, go.  Canada has refused to work with US on dairy tariffs for decades; Canada currently slaps as much as 292% tariff on dairy products. Trump administration calling Canada out on hypocrisy on "free trade" rhetoric vs reality. [Update: this must have gotten Canadian Trudeau's attention. The premier says he expects "this flap" to be resolved sooner than later. We'll see. Posted April 25, 2017.]

McDonald's: slams earnings. Earns $1.47 vs $1.33. Comps up 1.7%. Even beat on revenues.

Caterpillar: slams earnings. Earns $1.28 vs $0.62.

Go, Trump, Go.

Dupont: slams earnings.

3M: slams earnings.

Confused. CNBC talking head: cognitive dissonance. Trump is president and economy looks incredibly good. How can that be? Things were not supposed to be getting better.

On the other hand: US Steel with a huge loss both on the top line and the bottom line. All that excitement over Trump initiatives to make America great again apparently did not happen fast enough.