November 5, 2015: yesterday I posted the "original post" below. Today I updated the most recent US crude oil data. Look at how much oil is being imported from Canada despite the fact that the Keystone is not built. The Keystone issue is looking more and more irrelevant.
Imports from Canada:The "complete" Keystone XL would have had a capacity of 800,000 bopd, which is about 24 million bbls per month. Note that without the Keystone, the delta between August, 2015, and August, 2013, is almost 26 million bbls / month. Interesting, huh?
- August, 2013: 95.6 million bbls
- August, 2014: 106.4 million bbls
- August, 2015: 121.5 million bbls
The most recent data shows the delta is actually increasing: in the original post below, note that RBN Energy noted that Canada is shipping an extra 1.2 million bbls into the US every days, 45% more than the original Keystone XL capacity.
The Keystone XL Debate Becomes Tiresome
I was going to do a series of polls on the Keystone in light of a recent post by RBN Energy, but after seeing the story in today's WSJ, it's not worth the effort.
The "Keystone" is about two political parties raking in cash on this argument. The story itself no longer has any relevance.
I was concerned a bit after RBN Energy suggested that petcoke would be in short supply if the US did not have access to heavy oil, but that's a bit of hyperbole, also.
In today's WSJ, front page of section B: Pipeline delay unlikely to hurt refiners in US. The lede:
Oil imports from Canada set a record in August, averaging 3.4 million barrels a day, according to data released Monday by the U.S. Energy Department.
In fact, the U.S. has bought 64% more Canadian crude so far this year than it did in the same stretch of 2008, the year TransCanada first asked the U.S. government for permission to build the pipeline that would run from Alberta to Texas.
Unless someone knows something I don't know about the US manufacturing base bursting forth at 10% GDP next year, it sounds like the US is getting all the heavy oil it needs.That is an extra 1.2 million barrels of oil flowing into the U.S. from Canada every day, or 45% more crude than Keystone XL would have carried had it been constructed.