Thursday, October 27, 2016

Nothing To Do With The Bakken -- October 27, 2016

At National Review, our neutron bomb election.

I was sent the link to this review by several readers.

Many, many comments.

1. The writer of this editorial a) either did not know any of this before she wrote the editorial; or, b) she did know this.

Either she did or she didn't.

If she did not know of any of this before wikileaks, she is, hands-down, no question, the winner of the Geico Rock Award for 2016. I can think of only one other past winner who has said something more incomprehensible: "We cannot simply drill our way to low gasoline prices."

If she did know this before wikileaks, one has to ask why she waited until the week or two before the election to write it. (Not that it would have made any difference.) But did it require wikileaks for this writer of this editorial to learn about the following four items cited in this editorial?
  • CNN vice president Virginia Moseley is married to Hillary Clinton’s former deputy secretary at the State Department Tom Nides (now of Morgan Stanley) — suggesting “The Clinton News Network” is not really a right-wing joke.
  • Former ABC News executive producer Ian Cameron is married to Susan Rice, a — pre-Benghazi — regular on the Sunday talk shows.
  • CBS president David Rhodes is the sibling of aspiring novelist Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser for “strategic communications and Speechwriting,” whatever that fictive title means.
  • ABC News correspondent Claire Shipman married former White House press secretary Jay Carney (now senior vice president for “worldwide corporate affairs” at Amazon: not just “corporate affairs” or “worldwide affairs” but “worldwide corporate affairs”).
You and I may not have known all of those (or many others), but that's not our job. It's the job of the media to bring that to our attention, not wikileaks.

2. Ninety-nine percent of Americans will never read the editorial at The National Review. Shoot, I'm not sure even nine percent of Americans have even heard of The National Review. The one percent who do read The National Review editorial should already know the facts that were in it, even if the writer did not.

3. What bothers me most: anyone who actually read this editorial (one percent of Americans) and who found this material new or shocking; they, too, are nominees for the Geico Rock Award for 2016.

4. But this is the biggest problem: the analogy to the neutron bomb. From the lede, the first three sentences in full:
  • The shells of our institutions maybe survive the 2016 campaign, but they will be mere husks.
  • The infamous neutron bomb was designed to melt human flesh without damaging infrastructure. 
  • Something like it has blown up lots of people in the 2016 election and left behind empty institutions.
The writer is correct about only one thing, which was expressed in the second sentence: what a neutron bomb was designed to do. Everything else is wrong, dead wrong.

Does anyone really believe:
  • that the shells of our institutions will be mere husks after the 2016 election?
  • that something like a neutron bomb has blown up lots of people in the 2016 election and left behind empty institutions?
In fact, after the 2016 election, the federal institutions will still be there, and they will be stronger than ever: including but not limited to the EPA, the IRS, DOJ, DOE, HHS, Congress, the Supreme Court, and POTUS (especially if a felon by any other name is elected).

Does anyone seriously doubt that?

After this election, our federal institutions will certainly not be "mere husks."

With regard to the second wrong point, wikileaks (which this editorial is all about) did not "blow up" a single individual. If anything, every individual "exposed" by wikileaks is stronger than ever (by definition: "that which does not kill us, makes us stronger"). If anything, every individual mentioned in the editorial, starting with the network news anchors, are stronger than ever. (Megyn is asking for a $20 million salary, isn't she? That's more than POTUS will likely earn.)

If I'm wrong, name one individual "exposed" by wikileaks whose career has been destroyed and whom we will never hear of again or who might actually go to prison. Nope, not one. Okay, maybe the wiener.

In fact, if Hillary is elected, it will simply be "revolving doors" writ large as deputy directors of federal agencies move to become directors of other federal agencies. In fact, if there are not enough agencies to go around to reward everyone named in wikileaks, existing departments will spin off new departments. EPA will spin off a new agency: the Federal Agency of Global Warming. Treasury will spin off a Federal Agency of Debt, thereby moving $19 trillion in debt to a new federal agency, and simply mandate that the US Treasury start over with a clean slate, with a zero balance. The Treasury Department will take in revenue; the Federal Agency of Debt will simply keep a separate set of books, classified ultra-top secret, to be seen only by George Soros. The Federal Reserve will spin off a Federal Reserve Agency for Journalism to post minutes that cannot be interpreted by anyone.

If Trump is elected, the bureaucracy is such he might be able to appoint/move/fire/affect 200 individuals but that leaves about 150,000 entrenched bureaucrats who have learned to survive by showing up to work generally on time, keeping their heads down, and simply waiting out any president. Does anyone really think the Senate will approve any Supreme Court justice appointed by Trump? We've survived the past year with eight justices; we can survive four more (years) without Sarah Palin on the bench.

For me, all wikileaks did was start to level the playing field. Prior to wikileaks only one or two percent of Americans were in on the joke. Ninety-eight percent of Americans had no clue; some may have had suspicions but nothing "concrete" on which to hang their pitchforks. Now maybe six percent of Americans are in on the joke.

By the way, speaking of jokes, the cruelest joke (and there have been many) in this administration was this which was "revealed" just this past week: $25,000 in 2017 in the US is considered a "modest" income by the folks who brought us ObamaCare. That's why Megyn needs $20 million.

I don't watch network news so I don't know if wikileaks has been reported to any extent on ABC, NCB, CBS, CNN, HLN, MSNBC, FOX, etc, etc., but I assume not. Nor do I suspect we will ever see anything from wikileaks mentioned on Sixty Minutes.

So, back to the writer of this editorial. If she really was unaware of Caligula's Circus or Nero's Nepotism in Washington, DC, she is the winner of the 2016 Geico Rock Award.

Bakken 2.0: CLR Transfers 67 Wells To Kraken Operating -- October 27, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3568195182186

Three wells coming confidential list Friday:
29147, see below, Triangle USA, J Garvin Jacobson 150-101-8-5-6H, Pronghorn, producing,
29148, see below, Triangle USA, J Garvin Jacobson 150-101-8-5-5H, Pronghorn, producing,
32000, SI/NC, BR, CCU Zephry 24-34 MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,

No new permits.

Three Statoil permits canceled: three Knight permits in McKenzie County.

Three DUCs reported as completed:
  • 30442, 1,135, EOG, Shell 17-2819H, Parshall, t10/16; no production data,
  • 30444, 407, EOG, Shell 15-2819H, 4 sections, Parshall, t10/16; no production data,
  • 30469, 1,203, EOG, Shell 22-2819H, 4 sections, Parshall, t10/16; no production data,
Operator Transfer: CLR transferred 67 wells to Kraken Operating:
  • the wells are all in Williams County
  • all are horizontal wells; I assume all are middle Bakken/Three Forks welsl
  • lowest file number: 18498
  • highest file number: 30275
  • ten wells in the #18XXX series
  • four wells in the #19XXX series
  • no wells in the #20XXX series
  • fifteen wells in the #21XXX series
  • six wells in the #22XXX series
  • eight wells in the #23XXX series
  • eleven wells in the #24XXX series
  • one well in the #25XXX series
  • two wells in the #26XXX series
  • five wells in the #27XXX series
  • two wells in the #28XXX series
  • one well in the #29XXX series
  • two wells in the #30XXX series
  • Kraken Operating was last mentioned on the blog on October 25, 2016

29148, see above, Triangle USA, J Garvin Jacobson 150-101-8-5-5H, Pronghorn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

29147, see above, Triangle USA, J Garvin Jacobson 150-101-8-5-6H, Pronghorn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Note To Readers -- October 27, 2016

There is absolutely so much going on right now in the news, that it is overwhelming.  So many readers have sent me so much stuff it will take well into the evening to get through everything.

I'm going to have to take a break and post again later tonight. So, I apologize. Most of the new posting will occur later this evening when folks may not see it until tomorrow morning.

But if I try to blow now when I just have too many stories to post, it would only get add to my sense of being overwhelmed.

No new permits today, so that will help with the blogging. Mixed blessings.

Hyperbole? I Don't Think So -- Apple's New TouchBar Is Revolutionary -- October 27, 2016

It looks like it was pretty much a presentation about MacBook Pro and the new TouchBar. Nothing else except a bit about the new TV app. 

It will be interesting to hear what "critics" have to say about the new MacBook Pro and especially the TouchBar. The live presentation, now into the second hour, is live on a Safari browser, at (The presentation ended about 1:20 p.m. Central Time.)

Comparing it with MacBook Air.

The new MacBook Pro is smaller than the MacBook Air.

Wow, the MacBook Pro is thinner than the MacBook Pro. It's also smaller in volume; they both weigh the same.

13-inch in two versions, and one 15-inch version.

 $1500 to $2500.

I could be wrong but it appears there is no hard drive, but rather solid state memory up to 256 GB. The only two things I did not like about the old MacBook Pro that I had: a) way too heavy; and, b) the hard drive, subject to failing.

Apple share price before the presentation: around $115.

Apple share price after the presentation: around $115.

Random Update Of Russia's Northern Fleet In The Mediterranean; Reason #35 Why I Love To Blog -- October 27, 2016


Later, 1:53 p.m. Central Time: from a reader's comment --
If you zoom in and select "track" the Russian tug Nikolay Chiker is paired up with a Russian ship (unclassified, but has the appearance of a cargo ship or possible odd tanker) by the name of Osipov.
I have been watching them since last night when the Nikolay Chiker was steaming toward the Osipov which was in a static position. I initially thought that the Tug was steaming toward a north African port. The track today is in the same general area and appears to be drifting or static refueling or replenishment unlike American warships.
Early this morning the track almost appeared to be a working tug track like pushing other ships next to the Osipov.
Last night there were also two Spanish warships ahead of the Nikolay while it was steaming toward the Osipov. 
Original Post
Received signal one minute ago (approximately 11:05 a.m. Central Time), the tug escorting Russia's only aircraft carrier was headed south toward landfall, just miles off the coast of northern Morocco, just north of the port city of Al Hoceima, Morocco.

Al Hoceima has the second-largest port in the northern region of Morocco. Current, local time, in Al Hoceima, is 5:10 p.m., just about supper-time, I suppose.

Reason #35 Why I Love To Blog


Later, 12:41 p.m. Central Time: you know, lost in all this clutter is the comment made by the reader -- "that area should have cheap electricity for decades to come." This area is often referred to as the "Rust Belt" or very near that area formerly known as the "Rust Belt." If folks don't screw this up, this could be the re-emergence of US industry in that area -- aluminum, steel, cars, trucks, rail cars, and yes, dare I say it, wind turbines and towers. Folks paying attention know that coal is expensive in Asia (particularly India) and it's unlikely energy is going to get much cheaper overseas, certainly when compared to the US.

Later, 12:12 p.m. Central Time: see first comment:
To put some of these numbers (MW) in perspective, standard Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plants generate from 600 to 1,100 MW as a rule.
They are designed to go from cold start to 100% nameplate in about ten minutes time.
(The New England grid operator, ISO, has some great info on their website - ISO Express. One of the sections is the Daily Generation by Fuel Use.
Natgas ramps up and down throughout the day to keep the lights on for the folks in the Northeast.
In Pennsylvania, there are plans, or actual development of, 18 CCGT plants with a total generating capacity of more than 10,000 MW.

That area should have cheap electricity for decades to come.
And a quick follow-up from the same reader:
The company In energy is building a 1,480 MW plant now outside of Scranton. 
Cost, $500 million. 
A second, smaller plant, 500 MW, may be built nearby. 
$500 million / 1,480 / MW (with 100% nameplate capacity - generation =$350,000 /MW.

Wind farms/solar farms will cost in excess of $1 million/MW nameplate capacity, which means that 480 MW wind/solar plans (in the original post) will also be about $500 million. For this renewable energy (not counting the cost of back-up natural gas energy), $500 million / 70 MW generated capacity = an astonishing $7 million / MW.
Original Post
Because of the blog, I've learned to pay a lot more attention to exactly what word journalists use in reporting stories.

I have to thank one of my readers for "beating my head over this" on many, many occasions.

Here's an example.

From PennEnergy today: three New England states choose six clean energy generators, an AP story.  The lede:
Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts have selected six proposals to develop more clean energy for the New England market. The projects announced Tuesday include mostly wind and solar projects, which are expected to generate 460 megawatts of electricity collectively.
My hunch is that the "460 megawatts" is the nameplate capacity. We know that wind farms generate no more than 20% of their nameplate capacity (solar energy, a "meager" 10%).

It's hard to say from the article whether the reporter means that the nameplate capacity of these new "generators" is 480 megawatts, or if the reporter is suggesting that the nameplate capacity will be 2,400 MW. After all, the reported said these generators would "generate 480 MW collectively." At 20% that means the nameplate capacity would have to be 2,400 MW, and perhaps more because the article says the generator would be a mix of wind (20%) and solar (10%).

[If using both wind and solar, generation will be closer to 15% of capacity or 3,200 MW capacity.]

To put that into perspective, the Hoover Dam held the world record for power production between 1939 and 1949 with capacity of 705 MW of hydroelectricity. Grand Coulee Dam held a similar world record from 1949 to 1960 with a 2,280 MW capacity. So, if New England really has a plan for 2,400 MW of capacity (480 MW generated), I'm impressed. 

My hunch is that the reporter is talking about nameplate capacity, and is not telling us that equates to about 70 MW generation.

Note: this is not a discussion between the merits of wind/solar energy vs other forms of energy. It is a discussion of what consumers will actually be paying for when they sign on for these projects. They are not going to get 480 MW of electricity generation (if that's what the reporter meant).

Rate-payers need to start asking not what the cost / MW nameplate, but the cost / MW generated

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors, and am prone to misreading or misinterpreting something. If this is important to you, go to the source. If this is not important to you, I assume you have not read the post anyway.

A Note to the Granddaughters

Years ago, your mom and your aunt lived overseas when "we were in" the USAF. We visited all the major cities in Europe. One of our favorite cities, of course, was Vienna. We were there long enough to get to know the city quite well. I cannot recall if we visited for more than once. I'm sure we did; I have too many good memories of the city and we did too many things there to have visited only once, but I do not recall.

Today while reading Edmund de Waal's The Hare With Amber Eyes, I came across this passage describing the Palais Ephrussi (the palatial home of the author's family several generations earlier) and the Ringstrasse in Vienna:
It is all so self-consciously grand, and yet a bit Cecil B. de Mille. I am the wrong audience for it. A young painter and architecture student, Adolf Hitler, had a proper visceral response to the Ringstrasse:
From morning until late at night I ran from one object of interest to another, but it was always the buildings that held my primary interest. For hours I could stand in front of the Opera, for hours I could gaze at the Parliament; the whole Ringstrasse seemed to me like an enchantment out of The Thousand and One Nights."
Hitler would paint all the great buildings on the Ring, the Burgtheater, Hansen's Parliament, the two great buildings opposite the Palais Ephrussi, the university and the Votivkirche. Hitler appreciated how the space could be used for dramatic display. He understood all this ornament in a different way: it expressed "eternal values."
We would have walked right past the Palais Ephrussi (multiple times). Kiri would have been about seven years old, walking with us, while Laura would have been about three years old, able to walk, but mostly being pushed in a stroller.

Great, great memories.

Big Oil Reaps Windfall From Ethanol Rules -- October 27, 2016

OPEC: apparently plans to cut output by 4%; oil prices creep above $50. Source: Reuters

Definitions: with exports again becoming of interest, two definitions that were new to me -- "dirty tankers" and "clean tankers." From Platts:
  • Dirty tankers: carry crude oil, fuel oil, or other "dirty" products such as vacuum gasoil or dirt condensate
  • Clean tankers: carry light ends such as gasoline, middle distallates, or naphtha.
  • Smaller dirty tankers (unique Platts classification): dedicated to moving just fuel
  • Dry bulk carriers: pretty much as the name suggest; includes edibles
Links: this may have been going on for some time, but I just noted it today. For several years now there has been talk about copyright violation and other issues involving embedding links in one's posts. I do that a lot -- for various reasons, mostly to give credit to the originator of the story, and to go back and correct a typographical or factual error if needed. This morning I noted that embedding Fox Business News links into the blog, fail.

For example, this link works for me in the draft blog: but when I post it, Fox Business News does not allow access. I don't know if this has been going on "forever"; if it's something new; or, if it's a temporary phenomenon, intended or unintended.

For me it's not a problem because I can always go back to my "draft" and get back to the linked story, but it means readers will have to go to the Fox Business News site to find the story if they are interested. Of course, no one will do that. 

 Lego's Disney Castle. Some readers may have noted the link to the Lego Disney Castle at the sidebar at the right. I find it quite amazing and interesting to follow. Lego simply cannot keep up with demand. The castle is usually "temporarily unavailable." When it comes available, the castle is sold out within about 18 hours and the the site says the castle is again "temporarily unavailable," and then that lasts about a week or so. 

Jobs: first time unemployment claims drop 3,000; now down to 258,000. Previous week was revised up by a thousand. Four-week average also rose a thousand to 253,000. Analysts had forecast a drop to 255,000. In the FoxBusinessReport (which I don't link, see above) the story says the "new" magic number for evidence of economic stagnation is 300,000 first time unemployment claims, vs 400,000 which was the magic number when I first began tracking this metric years ago.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3568195182186

RBN Energy: Tier 3 sulfur requirements closing in on refiners. Bottom line -- all things being equal, gasoline will go up slightly in price.

Meanwhile, Big Oil reaps windfall from ethanol rules -- WSJ. Now, how did that happen?

The Market

Xcel: tops forecasts on both top, bottom line. Those wind credits must sure help the bottom line.

Noon: Dow 30 up about 45 points. NYSE:
new highs -- 53:
new lows -- 53:

Early morning trading: opened positive but now slightly down. WTI up a bit but still below $50.


Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution
Nathaniel Philbrick
c. 2016
DDS: 973.4 PHI
Chapter 13
No Time For Remorse

The Vulture, scooting south out of harm's way, only went a mile or so downriver, anchoring off Ossining, NY, and eventually returned to her original position.

Again, Benedict Arnold and his "comrade" Andre were helping each other, but each out to help himself first.

Arnold was on the "wrong" side of the river because he met Andre at Smith's house on the west side of the Hudson, rather than having Andre come to him at the Robinson house on the east side of the river.

Smith and Andre ride down the east side of the Hudson to Tarrytown, en route to Manhattan. Arnold remains in Robinson house, his HQ near West Point.

Andre discovered as a spy and captured by small number of militiamen guarding the road. The documents they found had to do with security of West Point.

Marched him 12 miles to American "HQ" at North Castle. Americans start marching him back to Robinson house where Arnold was not quite sure if Andre was a spy or not.

Another American spy/militiaman hears of this; decides to try to reach Andre before he gets back to Arnold.

Andre is captured (again). This time he writes a letter to His Excellency, Geo Washington, admitting and confessing, asking for leniency.

So, Arnold's letter to the Brits had not reached Manhattan, but he did not know that. In a few days, Geo Washington would be meeting Benedict Arnold near West Point. And Andre was on his way back, as a prisoner of war.

Wow -- the story of Arnold realizing he had been found out. He needed to escape. Geo Washington would be arriving any minute, and would meet Andre and the confession. Peggy had to serve breakfast and act as if nothing was remiss.

Arnold leaves, lying that he was going to West Point to prepare for Geo Washington's visit. He takes a small boat towards the Vulture

The author mentions that suicide and treason are the most self-centered of acts.

Geo Washington learns the full extent of Benedict Arnold's treason.

Still trying to catch up with Arnold on his way to Manhattan.

Andre put in prison at West Point and ultimately at army headquarters at Tappan, NY, 34 miles to the south.

Geo Washington was given the option to trade Andre for Arnold, but in the end, Geo Washington had no choice but to execute Andre.

Andre hung as a spy, not shot as an officer.

Washington thought back on his disastrous emotionally ragged performance at the Battle of Long Island four years earlier, and had learned to take the long view, that nothing could be decided in a single battle, no matter how brilliantly fought.

Winning a war and creating a new nation took time, but Benedict Arnold's treason has been a shock. But the United States (and that's the two words the author uses), despite having no money, no order, and no solidarity, had so far survived five years of bitter conflict.

"It had been revealed to him dangerously late, but Washington now knew his man."

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Chicago Hammering Cleveland Tonight; Tesla Beats Expectations; Shares Surge -- October 26, 2016

The Russian a/c carrier / Northern Fleet has sailed through the Strait of Gibralter; is in the Mediterranean Sea, more than three hours ago. Don't laugh at Putin's rusty navy -- he, at least, has an a/c carrier
Moscow’s illegal annexation of territory in Georgia and Ukraine, as well as its brutal assault on rebel forces in Syria, are all part of Mr Putin’s plan to re-establish Russia as a major player on the world stage. And, with America transfixed by the horror show that the current presidential election contest has become, who is to say the opportunistic Mr Putin might not be tempted to embark on yet another military adventure, perhaps this time focusing his attention on the vulnerable Baltic states?
Watch the price of gasoline in November: indications suggest the price of gasoline could spike in Europe in November, 2016.

TSLA: beat expectations; shares surge; this is a surprise profit of $22 million, buoyed by record sales of its pricey EVs; its first profit after 12 quarterly losses amid a push to generate cash for building its $35,000 Model 3. Good for them. This really puts the kibosh on those shorting the stock. This will be fun to watch.

World Series: Meanwhile, Chicago -- the favored team -- must have had it with Cleveland last night -- now leading 4 - 0 at the top of the 5th evening. They need to wrap up this win before it begins raining. Now, 5 - 0 -- walks a batter, bringing in an unearned run. Wow. Normally, games would be considered completed after five innings, but some years ago the baseball commissioner said games would be completed ... regardless. Rain starting to fall at the bottom of the ninth. If they don't finish tonight, the weather looks bad tomorrow. [Chicago wins: 5 -1. The series is tied 1 - 1. Now, on to Chicago. Day off tomorrow, then three days in Wrigley Field.]

Reading. If you have nothing better to do tonight -- other than watching the World Series -- I highly recommend the book review / essay in The Wall Street Journal this past weekend: "The Truth About Egypt's Revolution."
And yet the day before Mr. Mubarak’s resignation, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper assured a House committee that “the term Muslim Brotherhood is an umbrella term for a variety of movements.
In the case of Egypt, a very heterogeneous group, largely secular.” The White House too seemed unaware of the kind of movement that might replace Mr. Mubarak.
On Feb. 1, 2011, just a week after the protests began, President Obama declared that a change of government in Cairo “must begin now.” (By comparison, it was five months before he said the same about Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.) When Mr. Mubarak stepped aside 10 days later, a U.S. diplomat later recalled that Mr. Obama’s advisers toasted with vodka and beer.
Meanwhile, the US cedes the Atlantic Ocean to the Russians and the Chinese as Obama's Pentagon withdraws from another key strategic position. Another ally thrown under the bus. Truly amazing. Just one more Obama legacy. Less than 86 days. If historians are honest ten years from now, President Obama will go down as the most inept president in modern US history.

America's Energy Policy: White Paper from Horizons: Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development. Of course, this paper will be outdated as soon as Hillary or Trump takes the oath of office, next January 20, 2017.

Global Warming: I don't know if this is early or not, but it's not even November yet. The National Weather Service predicts snow in the northeast: snow showers with accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible over the Catskills and Adirondacks in New York.

Dumbing-down American education. Oil, gas automation sector suffering from skills shortage -- Rigzone -- I don't think the article said anything we didn't already know; I wouldn't bother clicking on the link.

The Accountant. I think most folks would enjoy this Ben Affleck movie. 

A Most Interesting Graph -- October 26, 2016

From John Kemp:

If I read the graphic and the legend correctly, this is the change in crude oil stockpile shown above:
  • red line: inventories, 2016 - 10 yr median
  • yellow line: 2016 - 2015

Energy Source Mix -- USA -- West, East, And Texas -- October 26, 2016

Energy source mix varies among the three U.S. #electricity grids


The big takeaway: for those states in the east that mandate renewable energy, they have quite a ways to go, and it's going to be very, very expensive. Right now, in the East, only 4% of total energy is generated by wind (5% capacity), and there is no solar. As nuclear energy declines, currently 24% of total generation, something is going to have to replace it. Coal is dead, so that pretty much leaves natural gas.

The second big takeaway: the EIA in this metric, places the entire North Dakota/Minnesota to Oklahoma/Louisiana corridor in the East which tends to skew the energy breakdown a bit. If the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa were put into the West, where at least the Dakotas belong, the wind situation for the East would be catastrophic.

For me this is how it breaks out;
  • East: coal and natural gas (Marcellus, Utica), and when nuclear goes away, natural gas will approach 75%, maybe more, of source for generated electricity
  • West: coal, natural gas, and a bit of wind, not much solar except as a niche player
  • Texas: natural gas (huge; almost 50% generation), coal, and wind; solar, still inconsequential
By state:

Note: the big takeaway from the graphic above: California wind -- nada, zilch, nil. Even Texas, with all it's wind, is too low to round up over 0%. At least that's what the graphic is telling me.

The graphic below is pretty "spectacular" until you realize:
  • that we are still talking only 6%; as natural gas increases, the "wind percentage" could actually drop
  • most of that wind generation is in the West and Texas; almost none in the East; and,
  • the US is slowly running out of "locations" for wind energy (for a number of reasons).

The misinformation provided by warmists has become incredibly tiresome. From Breitbart:
CNBC viewers are being snookered.

The business news network featured an article in the “Sustainable Energy” section of its Website that proclaimed: “Renewables surged past coal in 2015 to become world’s biggest source of electricity: IEA.”

In reading that headline, one might get the impression that wind turbines and solar panels produced more electricity last year than coal. But the fine print actually reveals a very different picture.

The opening paragraph of the article by “Freelance digital reporter” Anmar Frangoul gives a clue as to the sleight of hand being used. Frangoul cites the International Energy Agency (IEA) as reporting that “Renewable energy moved past coal in 2015 to become the biggest source of global electricity capacity.” The key word there is “capacity.”

What’s noteworthy is that capacity is far different from actual production. The average wind turbine has a maximum rated capacity of roughly 2 megawatts. That means, if the wind is blowing between 26-56 mph, the turbine can spin up to its peak generating capacity. In such moments, the wind turbine can produce its full 2 megawatts.

However, wind turbines, like solar panels, offer only intermittent power generation. Wind turbines can only produce power when there is sufficient wind—and when they are not shut down due to cold weather, repairs, or high winds. And solar panels only produce electricity during periods of direct sunlight. Thus, while a wind turbine can have a maximum capacity of 2 megawatts, its typical output may often be far less, or even 0 megawatts (on a windless day).

In contrast, and as the IEA itself notes, coal provided 40.8 percent of worldwide power generation in 2014. The renewables that Frangoul crows about—defined by the IEA as “geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.”—produced only 6.3 percent of all power.

Thus we see some of the misleading language in the CNBC article.

Frangoul talks about renewables producing 23 percent of world power generation in 2015—which is only possible when hydropower’s robust 16.4 percent is added to renewables’ paltry 6.3 percent share.
And while the IEA says that “renewables represented more than half the new power capacity around the world” in 2015, one has to remember their frustrating intermittency.
Wind turbines only generate roughly 20 percent of their installed capacity, and solar panels yield an even more meager 10 percent. 
Much more at the link. Wow, it gets tiresome. 

CLR To Report A Nice Bakken Well Thursday -- October 26, 2016

OPEC: Organization of Producers Exempt from Cuts/Caps. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3668194182186

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 31753, 950, CLR, Maryland 2-16H,  Catwalk, 38 stages, 8.2 million lbs, t5/16 cum 84K 8/16;
  • 32558, SI/NC, SM Energy, Martin 2-4HN, Burg, no production data,
Two new permits:
  • Operator: Petro-Hunt
  • Field: Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Three permits renewed:
  • CLR (3): one Chicago permit and two Charlotte permits, all in McKenzie County.
One DUC reported as completed:
  • 28015, 816, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C_14-2HS, Charlson, t10/16; completed, apparently, but absolutely no production; 
31753, see above, CLR, Maryland 2-16H,  Catwalk:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Memo to self: come back to this later. And the national debt. And this.