Thursday, May 23, 2019

Two Texas Cities Make Top Three List -- Greatest Growth -- May 23, 2019

Through one year ending July, 2018, these three cities had the greatest growth (numeric gain) among US cities:
  • Phoenix
  • San Antonio
  • Ft Worth

GEOI

For the archives. GEOI is no longer an operator in the Bakken.

Halcon

For the archives. Halcon is no longer an operator in the Bakken. Prior data re: Halcon:

Sempra Energy Begins LNG Production At Cameron Export Facility -- May 23, 2019

From twitter today, link here:


The US LNG export terminal list is tracked here. Shortly after posting that list back in 2016 a reader wrote to tell me the obvious: just because "someone" plans on an LNG export terminal it doesn't necessarily mean that it will be built. Whatever. On the other hand, "they" keep plugging along, building these LNG export terminals.


Trump Gets A Big Win -- May 23, 2019

From twitter today: chipmakers Intel, Qualcomm and Broadcom halt supplying Huawei until further notice. Microsoft pulls Huawei from one of its "cloud" catalogs.

From twitter today:
  • Turkey says it no longer imports oil from Iran.
  • India says it quit importing oil from Iran and Venezuela as of May 3, 2019. 
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Update On Russian Corrosion

Occasional-Cortez says Vladimir Putin needs to be impeached over allegations of corrosion.

From twitter today (May 23, 2019):
As much as 5 million tonnes of contaminated Russian oil could have been shipped through pipeline to Europe.

Russia has removed 2 million tonnes of contaminated oil so far, using rail, storage tanks, and ships to store that contaminated oil.

It could be another six months before the system is "back to normal." If so, this takes "them" well into winter.
May 20, 2019: payments to Russia for this oil has been suspended; disruption to this pipeline said to be worse such out in Russia.

May 15, 2019: Russian corrosion much worse than previously reported.

May 2, 2019: Bloomberg calls it a logistical nightmare.

Kodiak Oil & Gas

For the archives. Kodiak is no longer an operator in North Dakota.
  • 4Q14: KOG deal with Whiting closes. Whiting owns KOG. KOG ticker symbol no longer for Kodiak Oil and Gas. 
  • 2Q14: 38,271 boepd; sale of KOG to Whiting, pending; four rigs, but should be back to 7-rig program by end of 2014; transcript;
  • 1Q14: average: 34,000 boepd;
  • 4Q13 average: 36,100 boepd (18,200 boepd 4Q12); 183,000 net acres (173,000 in ND); sold 19,500 producing acres for $68 million (mostly in SW McKenzie County)
  • October 2, 2013, transcript: 195,000 acres; all in North Dakota; 7 rigs; guidance - 30K to 34K bopd production by end of the year
  • June 3, 2013: Buys Liberty Resources: 42,000 net acres; 6K boepd production; 1 rig; $660 million cash; 196,000 net acres after acquisition
  • 1Q13: 21.7K boed (11K boed one year ago); crude oil, 88%. Beginning March, 2013, one full-time, 24-hr completion crew; will add a second crew in May, 2013; 7 operated rigs 9same); all in ND; continues with 12-well-test on a 1280-acre spacing unit in Polar/Smokey operating areas with two rigs operating in each area.
  • Update: July, 2012, corporate presentation: Production: 10,578 boepd (average -- 1Q12)
  • 155,000 net acreage in the Bakken after January, 2012, closing on North Plains Energy, LLC, assets 
  • 7 operated rigs 2Q12, 1-2 non-operated rigs; expect to hold all leases by production by mid-2013; two 24-hour frack spreads (still true as of January 10, 2012, press release)
  • Decline rates based on long lateral EURs of 650 - 850K bbls
  • Exit 2011: 9,000 (est 3Q11) (was 11,000 boepd -- estimate as of October, 2011)
  • Mid-2012: 24,000 (est Nov 11; after North Plains acquisition); exit 2012, 30,000 boepd
  • will add 2nd dedicated frack crew in 2012; one dedicated HAL fracking crew as of 1Q12
  • JV partner with 2 rigs; 50% WI
  • Total Bakken net acres: 93,500 net acres (ND: 85,000 ; MT: 4,500 acres)
  • November, 2011 announcement, acquisition: Divide County, McKenzie County, 50,000 acres
  • Prior to the June 30, 2011, acquisition: Total Bakken net acres: 70,000 net acres (Dunn County: 35K; McKenzie County: 35K)
  • Koala -- McKenzie (Western Trend); 10,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
    • Koala Prospect: southeast of Williston, south of river, Williams Count (10,000 net acres); with current drilling program, all of Koala will BHP by 2012 end
  • Polar - Williams Country (North Flank Trend); 16,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
  • Polar Prospect: northern and southern Divide; just north of BEXP's Rough Rider;with current drilling program, all of Polar will BHP by 2013 end
  • Grizzly - McKenzie County (SW Bakken - TF Trend); 25,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
  • June 30, 2011 Acquisition -- East Grizzly Prospect: far southeast end of Elm Coulee on ND side (22,000 net acres); previously about 4,000 net acres in this area, the far southeast end of Elm Coulee on ND side
  • Dunn County (Eastern Trend), FBIR; 34,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
  • Dunn County Core area: northeast Dunn County, south of river (west of river), FBIR (34,000 net acres); 800 - 900K EURs; $10.5 million;
  • Smokey - McKenzie County, 16,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
  • Smokey Prospect: McKenzie County, old -- 11,742 net acres; between their acreage on the reservation and the newer Koala Prospect area and just to the west of the southern tip of the Nesson Anticline (16,000 net acres); with current drilling program, all of Smokey will BHP by 2012 end
  • Wildrose:  5 wells/spacing unit
  • Sheridan County, Montana: 4 wells/spacing unit
  • Jan 2012 Acq - Williams and McKenzie; 50,000 net acres
  • (Other Williston Basin: Montana, northwest of Williston, Sheridan County, 4,500 net acres)
  • Corporate presentation, December, 2011:  155,000 net acres
  • Analyst's number, December 31, 2010: 72,000 net acres

Four New Permits; One New Operator In The Bakken; WTI Falls Over 5% -- May 23, 2019

Active rigs:

$58.125/23/201905/23/201805/23/201705/23/201605/23/2015
Active Rigs6465512582

Four new permits:
  • Operator: KODA Resources Operating, LLC (see this post) (2); WPX Energy (2)
  • Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County); South Fork (Dunn County)
  • Comments: KODA has permits for a 2-well Stout pad in section 29-160-102, Fertile Valley
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33027, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
  • 33026, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
  • 33025, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H1, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
    • neighboring wells
      • to the east, running same direction
        • 18138, nice jump in production;
        • 19503, remains off line as of 3/19;
      • to the west, running same direction, south to north
        • 19397, remains off line as of 3/19;
      • to the north, running same direction, south to north
        • 20804, remains off line as of 3/19;
        • 24473, back on line for 13 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19;
        • 20805, back on line for 11 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19;

New Operator In The Bakken: KODA Resources Operating, LLC -- May 23, 2019

KODA Resources: website.

KODA has two permits:
  • 36500, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2917-1BH, Fertile Valley, 
  • 36501, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2932-2TH, Fertile Valley, 
According to LinkedIn:
  • Osman Apaydin: founder, president, and CEO; June, 2018 - present
    • prior: 12 years 6 months with EOG
    • prior: Schlumberger, 1998 - 2005
    • BS, Petroleum Engineering, Istanbul Technical University
    • MSc, Petroleum Engineering, Stanford University
    • PhD, Petroleum Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
  • Jason McLaren, Landman at KODA Resources;

Ready, Set, Go -- And The Market Went -- Down -- May 23, 2019

With the market plummeting today (after two weeks of really bearish days), the mainstream media will continue to blame the China issue (which they can blame on Trump issue, as if there's only one party involved here).

I don't buy it.

I don't buy the mainstream media suggesting this all about the China trade issue.

The China trade issue has been going on for weeks (months?).

Why did the market plummet today? Certainly not due to the China trade issue -- an issue with no news today.

What happened today that was news? Hold that thought; I'll come back to that.

What happened yesterday that was news? Hold that thought; I'll come back to that.

What happened two days ago that was news? Hold that thought: I'll come back to that.

Some data points:
  • May: "Sell in May and go away."
  • Ticker symbols:
    • AAPL:  caught up in many, many issues; the China issue exacerbates all of Apple's issues.
    • Boeing: unlikely to get the "737 MAX 8" in the air by the end of June; the original date suggested by Boeing. In fact the tea leaves suggest the MAX 8 won't be back in the air before the end of the year.
    • QCOM: judge rules company guilty of monopolistic practices; stock plummets 12% on ruling;
    • TSLA: implodes
    • XLNX: says rollout of 5G to take much longer than expected; affects all telecom; most chips; much of the tech sector; in fact, 5G may be stalled / killed due to health concerns
  • Oil: oil profits down this past quarter; the #1-traded commodity in the world, plummets today, unrelated to the stock market but affecting the market

  • US farming: okay, -- I'll give the mainstream media that one -- the farmers are scared but it was not simply the China trade issue (but that was huge for farmers); but now the huge flooding in the midwest exacerbates the trade issue
So, now, the news that rocked the market:
  • READY -- two days ago: the price of oil continued to drop; that tension in the Mideast was amounting to nothing; API reports huge crude oil inventory -- prepping the market for a drop;
  • SET -- yesterday: EIA confirms API's data -- huge crude oil inventory (pulls oil sector down); Trump walks away from biggest infrastructure bill in history -- not going to happen this year;  rumor has it that the infrastructure bill at $2 trillion was twice what it would have been last year; market now ready to drop;
  • GO -- today: the Fed minutes -- the Fed indicates they won't cut rates; the one last thing the market was "hoping" for; the market drops;
So, with all that, what's a NYC trader to do? "Sell in May and go away." Prepare for vacation; go on vacation. Come back in September.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Hoping this lasts for at least two more cycles. What a great buying opportunity. We don't get them often.

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Flash

It's hard to live without "flash."

When you upload/download "flash" you also get free of charge:
  • Mac Pro Cleaner
  • Booking.com
  • NameSync
And they show up automatically in your "dock" which is most irritating.

Recommendation: remove them immediately.

Google this issue and you will find "everyone" has this problem. 

On Apple it's really, really easy to remove these three apps, although it took a few attempts to finally get rid of NameSync which apparently tracks all your passwords.

On Apple:
  • go to Finder
  • search for "applications"
  • click on the "Applications" folder. You might have to find a second "Applications" folder but it's there.
Look for:
  • MacProClearner (or whatever it's called; something like that)
  • Booking.com
  • NameSync
Drag the icons to the "Trash."

A dialogue box might pop up saying that the app can't be deleted because it's open.
  • Click on the icon on the dock, and then when it shows up in the "toolbar," "CLOSE IT."
  • Now it can be dragged to the "Trash."
For some reason, it took a couple of tries to get rid of NameSync and that's the one that's most concerning. The other two are just irritating.

Now you know why Steve Jobs wanted nothing to do with "flash" on his mobile devices.

Off The Net For Awhile -- We'll End With This

From a reader. As we think about that possible plastics plant in North Dakota, a re-look at this article from a year ago: ethane to ethylene should be a big, big deal going forward

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Refinery Temporarily Shut Down
Global Warming Dropping Too Much Rain

From twitter today: