Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Drum Roll, Please -- August 21, 2018

As I've said many times, the Dow is irrelevant but we all follow it.

For investors, of the three major indices, the S&P 500 is the most important.

Today, drum roll, please --- the S&P hits an all-time high.

We never saw that under the previous administration and you can argue with me all you want, but we would not have seen this with Hillary or Marco Rubio.


Week 33: August 12, 2018 -- August 18, 2018

This posting was delayed a few days and will include posts later than August 18, 2018, but ... whatever.

Operations
This week was marked by announcement of some incredible wells (which seems to be the norm these days); for example:
Active rigs trending down in the Bakken
Highlights of CLR's 2Q18 earnings call

DUCs
Continue to increase in the Bakken -- regardless of what others say
Ten producing DUCs reported as completed

Flaring
North Dakota purposely cuts oil production to slow down flaring

Economy
Breakeven in the Bakken: $35 -- Rystad; $17 in some areas -- NDIC  

Commentary
Bakken 2.5 -- year-end update, 2017
Has US shale peaked?

Miscellaneous:
Vern Whitten aerial photos of western North Dakota -- top post of the week
Writer suggests Oasis was a recent seller of acreage to Whiting

The Next Big Thing: Personal Television Network

Over at "The Next Big Thing," I've added "personal television networks." My hunch is that millenials have already done this but cable providers and satellite providers need to make it as easy as Apple iTunes and Apple television.

From the extensive library of all networks available, an individual would simply go down the list checking off which network he/she wants to watch at any given hour/day throughout the week.

So, for example, "Bruce's Television Network (BTN), all times Central Time:
  • 05:00 - 6:00: BBC World News (in London, it would be about noon)
  • 06:00 - 07:00: CNBC
  • 07:00 - 08:00: business news from a regional network based in Chicago
  • 08:00 - 09:00: business podcasts from the internet
  • 09:00 - 10:00: BBC World News (in London, it would be about noon), in case I sleep in
  • 10:00 - 11:00: TBD
  • 12:00 - 1:00: TBD
  • 1:00 - 3:00: TCM classic movies
  • 3:00 - 4:00: CNBC
  • 4:00 - 5:00: business news from a regional network based in Los Angeles
  • 5:00 - 9:00: "Big Bang Theory"; "Bob's Burgers"; ESPN; poker; Lawrence Welk; Miami Vice; Columbo; mix
  • 9:00 - 11:00: TCM classic movies
And again, the millenials have probably figured out how to do this but BTN would simply be another channel available for surfing, and once up and running, anyone could surf to that network.

It Never Quits -- Making Texas Great Again -- First Time Ever -- Texas Exports More Oil Than It Imports -- August 21, 2018

And this was back in April - almost four months ago. Link here.
The Texas Gulf Coast oil terminals sent abroad more crude than they received in April, the Energy Information Administration said this week. During that month, crude oil exports from the Houston-Galveston port district exceeded imports by 15,000 bpd. Over the next month, the advantage of exports over imports welled further, to an impressive 470,000 bpd.
Total U.S. oil exports in may hit a record of 2 million bpd, with Houston-Galveston’s share of the total at a record-breaking 70 percent, from an average of about 50 percent since the middle of 2017, the EIA said.
The bulk of crude oil exports from the Houston-Galveston area went to China, Canada, Italy, and the UK, with exports to China averaging 300,000 bpd in both June and July. This month, however, not a single crude oil cargo has been loaded for China, according to media reports, amid growing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. But it certianly seems like an open-book test, doesn't it?

The rest of the market. Quite incredible, I would say. The Dow holds. Even TSLA looks strong today.
  • Dow jumps 100 points during early morning trading; bull market gets set to become the longest in history; I think it's fairly obvious, in retrospect, how this occurred; will talk about it later, if I remember;
  • Dow: up about 70 points; irrelevant but great news nonetheless
  • S&P 500: up 9 points; highly relevant
  • NASDAQ: up 44 points
  • Russell 2000: up 15 points
  • WTI: up a bit; around $66 which is fine. as long at the trend is up
  • AAPL: down, but essentially flat
  • SRE: down about a percent at $116
  • PSX: this one blows me away; through a spin-off many years ago, I ended up owning a few shares; cost basis at time of spin-off, maybe $60 -- bad news -- lots of taxes when sold; up another $1.57 today, trading at $117.65; 
  • NOG: five days ago, $2.61; today, $3.20; up 23% in five days; LOL
  • OAS: five days ago, $11.60; today, $12.35; up about 6%, I guess
  • UNP: one of the more interesting ones to follow right now
  • Warren: flat today, but slightly green
  • EOG: wow, big jump today; I almost missed it, but it looks like EOG raised its dividend
WANG: from CNBC -- like Trump, James Cramer is always, always thinking, living and breathing the stock market --
Cramer is introducing a new acronym: WANG.
According to Cramer, WANG stocks are the new FANG stocks. WANG stands for Walmart, Apple, Netflix, and Google, meaning WANG is FANG, except with two trades (Facebook and Amazon are out; Walmart and Apple are in). 
Comment: Netflix could stumble. Then it's a WAG. If Walmart stumbles, it's a NAG.
Coal: two links --
 LNG: making America and Panama great again -- of course, Andrew Cuomo would tell lus that Panama never was all that great -- link here --
Panama on Friday will sign an agreement with the U.S. Treasury and Energy departments aimed at paving the way for more private investment to expand the importation and distribution of U.S. liquefied natural gas in Latin America.

It Never Quits Under Trump -- Now, Yet Another, Terminal Off Louisiana Coast -- "Shale-To-Ship" -- August 21, 2018; Are We Headed Below 50 Rigs In North Dakota?

AAA: gasoline is not expensive. Regular readers know what this is all about. If not, click on "gasoline demand."  From Rigzone: US motorists buying less gasoline and paying less. 

Really? US offers eleven (11) million bbls of oil for sale from SPR -- Reuters --  let's see if Reuters puts that into context -- data points:
  • sale of sour crudes -- interesting choice; sour crude from Bryan Mound, in addition to West Hackberry and Big Hill
  • earlier this year, 5.2 million bbls was sold from the SPR (Reuters did not mention that oil companies pretty ignored the sale)
  • "SPR crude oil samples are not available prior to deliveries" -- three firms that bought crude oil last year from U.S. emergency stockpiles raised concerns about dangerous levels of a poisonous chemical in the cargoes
  • I could be wrong, but the consensus appears that with sanctions, maybe one million bbls of heavy, sour, Iranian crude might be taken off the market, each day -- 11 million bbls = 11 days -- okay
*************************************
Back to the Bakken
 
Wells coming off confidential list today --

Tuesday, August 21, 2018
  • 33364, 1,299, Whiting, Lindy 34-10-1TFH, East Fork, 36 stages; 10.4 million lbs, almost 300,000 lbs/stage, t3/18; cum 70K 6/18;
  • 30277, SI/NC, WPX,Joseph Eagle 19-18HZ, Mandaree, huge well, said to be SI/NC, but produced 75K in less than two months -- see this post; frac data not available at NDIC; FracFocus: 4/25/18 - 5/4/18; 5.7 million gallons of water (a small frack by today's standards in the Bakken); 88% water; 11% proppants; very small amount by today's standards;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2018303358833659259343533530746840
BAKKEN5-20182341110408123889343248293819313
BAKKEN4-20180000000

Active rigs:

$65.908/21/201808/21/201708/21/201608/21/201508/21/2014
Active Rigs57523276193

RBN Energy: Tallgrass' plan for a crude oil export-import terminal off the Louisiana Coast.
There are common drivers behind the handful of offshore crude oil terminals now under development along the Gulf Coast, chief among them the well-founded belief that shippers would prefer putting crude on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which can only be fully loaded in deep water.
But each of these projects also has unique nuances — its own specific rationale and characteristics.
Tallgrass Energy’s plan is a case in point in that it involves a new pipeline from the crude hub in Cushing, OK, to the refinery center in St. James, LA, and to a new onshore crude storage and loading terminal a few miles down the Mississippi River, to be followed by a VLCC-ready offshore terminal capable of both exporting and importing crude.
Today, we continue our review of made-for-VLCCs offshore terminals with a look at Tallgrass’s effort to deliver neat, unblended barrels directly from multiple inland plays to deep water — “shale-to-ship,” in other words.
Here's looking at you, kid:

Monday, August 20, 2018

Off The Net For Rest Of Day -- Jury Duty

First day of school for the two older granddaughters:


Sophia, age 4, is in Tutor Time. She has been in Tutor Time since age one year or perhaps earlier, I forget. She will be going to "real" school starting next week. More on that later; it's pretty exciting.

Certainly, it was exciting yesterday when Sophia's school had an unexpected visitor:



That's our Sophia, yelling that it's Hillary coming after them. She's usually leading the pack, so I assume someone else panicked first and they all started running.  My understanding is that the "money trick" worked.

They Must Be Reading The Blog -- Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #5 -- August 20, 2018; WTI Way Down

Updates

August 21, 2018: John Kemp must be reading the blog. He finally is reporting the story that we've been discussing about almost one year now, it seems -- gasoline demand in the US is lagging -- from John Kemp today -- 



 The growth is in diesel fuel:



Original Post

If you click on "gasoline demand," you will see my posts for the past several months -- something I noticed quite some time ago. Now I see Bloomberg has finally noted it.

The writer crazily blames it on the "price of gasoline." Absolutely incorrect. Something else is going on.



******************************
Back to the Bakken


Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend and Monday --

Monday, August 20, 2018
  • 34230, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 8-27-34-157N-100W TFH, no production data,
  • 34073, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-18C-3H,  no production data,
Sunday, August 19, 2018
  • 30525, conf, CLR, Burr Federal 17-26H, Sanish, a very nice well, 71K in 2 months; Burr Federal wells are tracked here;
  • 30278, SI/NC -- but producing huge amounts of oil, WPX, Joseph Eagle 19-18D, Mandaree, a huge well; 76K in less than 2 months;
Saturday, August 18, 2018
  • 34229, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 4-22-15-157N-100W, Marmon, no production data, 
  • 34228, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 4-27-34-157N-100W, Marmon, no production data,
  • 33365, 1,046, Whiting, Lindy 34-10-1H, East Fork, t3/18; cum 91K 6/18; a very nice well; almost 90K in four months;
Active rigs:

$64.918/20/201808/20/201708/20/201608/20/201508/20/2014
Active Rigs59533275191

RBN Energy: integrated majors breathe new life into the Haynesville-Texas gas play. 
Natural gas production volumes from the Haynesville Shale have raced up over the past 18 months or so, from about 5.3 Bcf/d in December 2016 to more than 8 Bcf/d now. In fact, volumes are now just 1 Bcf/d or so shy of the all-time peak of 9.5 Bcf/d in January 2012. Despite the gains, there’s been a cloud of skepticism hanging over the play’s longer-term growth prospects — most of the recent gains have come from a relatively small footprint in the play’s western Louisiana sweet spot, and many of the surrounding areas are fraught with geological challenges, such as high water and clay content. But now the Haynesville story is changing once again, with a shift in rigs to the Texas side. How does this shift affect Haynesville’s growth prospects? Today, we provide an update of our view of the Haynesville Shale.

When we last wrote about the Haynesville comeback earlier this year, gas production from the shale play was in its ninth straight month of gains. Yet questions were still swirling about its growth prospects. After facing steep declines earlier in the decade and leveling off near the 5.5 Bcf/d level through 2015-16, Haynesville gas production volumes reached an inflection point in early 2017 and climbed 650 MMcf/d through the first half of last year, bringing volumes back to just under the 6-Bcf/d mark. Then, growth accelerated in the second half of 2017, with volumes rising another 1 Bcf/d or so to top 7 Bcf/d by December 2017.

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Busy, Busy Week For Me Coming Up -- August 19, 2018

Casual readers of the blog may not notice, but there was a lot less blogging this weekend, and I assume there will be a lot less blogging this week. School for the granddaughters begin and I have a lot of commitments.

I will get to all e-mail but I may not have lengthy replies.

Stock market futures: fairly flat, but after last Thursday -- a 400-point rise on the Dow -- just holding  is quite a feat.

But note this: UNP is among the pre-market movers, up 1.1% in pre-market trading. It could hit a 52-week high Monday.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or think you made have read here.

UNP: I'm sure there are specific reasons for what appears to be a surge in UNP, but I certainly recall all the stories this past year on the challenges the trucking industry is facing. The winners: the railroads. On top of that, the economy is "crushing it," according to Larry Kudlow.

Sports: I see that Carson Wentz may be ready to start this NFL football season.

International politics: Turkey. Wow, what can I say? Something tells me there is more to this story than just a pastor. Something tells me Erdogan needed "an excuse" to explain away the economy that was about to implode anyway.

Sacred fires -- burn, Burnaby, burn: I wish I had more time to spend on this, but have to keep moving along. A reader sent me the link to this video -- it's a long video but enjoyable. The reader noted that the "sacred fire" was most likely heating oil being burned in an oil barrel. A "sacred fire" for those protesting "big oil." The heating oil was probably trucked in by a diesel/gasoline-guzzling SUV / pick-up truck. 

Gasoline prices coming down along with price of WTI. LOL. I think I've mentioned this three times -- and now Bloomberg talks about it. And again, the wrong metric is being measured.

Western North Dakota -- Aerial Views -- Vern Whitten -- August 19, 2018

From Vern Whitten, what a treat.

Aerial views from his recent photo flight over western North Dakota.

I will post the link now and come back to talk about some of them.

Please drop a note of appreciation to Vern. I know he would enjoy hearing from you.

Link to aerial views over western North Dakota, summer, 2018.

But, wow, take a look at all the water around Williston. This is breath-taking! I was completely unaware of this. It is amazing that US regional newspapers do such a poor job with photo-journalism.

Wow, these are incredible, and I think it's the largest batch of photos Vern has ever sent me. 

Look At How Incredible These Wells Are -- Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- Absolutely Incredible -- August 19, 2019

Full list of wells coming off confidential list this week are posted here.

33121, conf, CLR, Mountain Gap 8-10H1, Rattlesnake Point:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20181775918794
5-2018700990
4-201886860
3-20184060
2-20181060

27881, conf, CLR, Jersey 19-6H1, Alkali Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20183152720711
5-201837190

33120, conf, CLR, Mountain Ga- 7-10H, Rattlesnake Point,:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20183238133637
5-20188447450940
4-201876580
3-20183170
2-20181230

 33230, conf, CLR, Vardon 4-14H, Siverston:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2018933714912
5-20183750570219
4-20184102656398
3-20184315644064
2-20186840

30277, conf, WPX,Joseph Eagle 19-18HZ, Mandaree, huge well,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20183365930746
5-20184081229381