Monday, January 20, 2020

Record State Multifamily Apartment Complex Sale In The Bakken -- The New Year's Eve Sale -- January 20, 2020

Link here.
The largest reported sale of the year for the multifamily market closed on New Year’s Eve and included properties from Williston, Tioga and Stanley, indicating continued strong demand in the oil patch. 
Energy Real Estate Solutions announced the six-property sale on Jan. 7. The deal closed at $27.5 million on December 31. 2019, and is listed as the state’s largest multifamily apartment complex sale.
One reason Bakken deals are so highly sought, Elliot said, is that so many of its structures have been recently built, within the past 10 years or so.
“People also realize now that this oil and gas play isn’t going anywhere,” he said. “If nothing else, it’s probably going to get stronger. The infrastructure we have seen in the market over the last 10 years is pretty significant. It’s become a good place for people to live and work.”
Returns in the Bakken are higher than other markets, Elliot added.
“It is not without risk,” he said. “But the returns are higher than the primary markets where people are eking out a 5.5% return. These markets are getting much-higher returns."
Apartment complexes in the Bakken are still a good value. The New Year’s Eve apartments were sold below construction costs.
Four of the six properties sold are in Williston: Westridge Apartments, Roosevelt West Apartments, Eagle Point Apartments and  Williston Meadows.
There also were Dakota Apartments in Stanley and the Olson Apartments in Tioga.

Monday Night, Martin Luther King, Jr -- Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 20, 2020

Time for some music. Something tells me we're going to need some music to get through this next week.

I linked this video to a post the other day. This evening -- after removing all the videos Sophia had lined up on YouTube -- this one popped up -- YouTube can read my mind.

Reflections On My Life, Dean Ford

Sophia's dad is teaching Sophia to "code" -- as in software coding. Tonight, Sophia -- age 5 --  showed me what she could do on her own on the iPad that she uses to learn / practice coding. No letters, no words, no reading. All done with emojis and graphics.Very, very interesting.

*********************************
Clearing Off The Desktop
Natural gas. US natural gas prices drop to lowest level in four years.

Boeing. Boeing 737 Max -- it simply gets worse and worse. Software fails; company seeking $10 billion load (twice what analysts originally told); won't fly until June, 2020, at the earliest. I will be surprised to see the 737 Max fly this year.

Canada. Canadian municipalities left holding the bag. To make things worse, the Alberta Court of Appeal ruled that municipalities are unsecured creditors when it comes to bankruptcy -- this means that are are the last to get paid in the event of default -- and less likely to any money ... ever.

Delta Airlines: employees to get two extra months' pay via profit-sharing plan. If this has happened before, I am unaware.

India: economy unraveling. Assuming it was ever raveled in the first place. To quote Chris Stein of Blondie.

Schlumberger. Schlumberger posts $10 billion loss in 2019.

McDermott. McDermott hits Freeport LNG milestone.


Farmers. Farmer approval of Trump hits record.
Approval of President Trump among farmers in the Corn Belt is on the rise following the signing of the long-awaited U.S.-China trade deal last week.

According to a monthly poll from agricultural trade publication Farm Journal released Sunday, 83% of farmers and ranchers approve of the president’s job performance. It is the highest level of support for Mr. Trump among farmers since he took office, Farm Journal said.

The poll collected 1,286 responses among roughly 5,000 ranchers and farmers asked via text to give their opinion. Respondents were nationwide, but concentrated mostly in Midwest states like Illinois, Iowa, Indiana and Nebraska.

“We have heard repeatedly from farmers that they believe in the end of the trade fight with China,” said John Herath, news director at Farm Journal.

The uptick in farmer support comes following the signing of the so-called phase-one trade agreement in Washington on Wednesday. The deal stipulates that China will purchase roughly $36 billion worth of U.S. agricultural exports in 2020, and over $43 billion in 2021.

Also playing a role in boosting farmer sentiment is the U.S. Senate passing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on Thursday, the free-trade deal replacing the 26-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement.

North Dakota Leads All States In Tax Collection Since Great Recession -- State -- Inforum -- January 20, 2020

North Dakota leads all states in tax collection since Great Recession. Link here.
North Dakota once again leads all states in revenue recovery following the Great Recession as it rides stable growth in the Oil Patch even as the farm economy struggles.
Since the peak quarter during the Great Recession, which ran from 2007 to 2009, state tax receipts in North Dakota have risen 71.2% as of the second quarter of 2019, outpacing all other states, according to an analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts.
North Dakota’s revenue growth was even more impressive as of the end of 2014, when oil prices were soaring, the Oil Patch was booming and state tax receipts skyrocketed 123.9% from their Great Recession peak.
“It’s nice to see we’re in a phase of continued, sustainable growth in all of our revenues,” said Ryan Rauschenberger, state tax commissioner.
Minnesota and South Dakota also were among 45 states where tax revenues rebounded since the recession, and among 16 states that had tax revenue growth exceeding 15%. Tax receipts rose 28.8% in Minnesota and 22.4% in South Dakota.
The state collects an estimated $250,000 in sales taxes for every oil well that is drilled, for example. Similarly, he said, job expansion from petroleum development spurs income tax growth.
“It’s not just oil revenue that’s growing,” he said. So far this biennium, tax receipts are running ahead of projections made last April.
“Across the board we are ahead of forecast,” Rauschenberger said. “We feel pretty comfortable with where we’re at with our general fund budget.”
On Tuesday, Jan. 7, Rauschenberger’s office announced that taxable sales and purchases for July, August and September of 2019 were $5.852 billion, a 4% increase over those months in 2018.
“We’re actually collecting more in a month than we were in a year before the Bakken (boom)” when production was less than 200,000 barrels per day, Rauschenberger said.
Last year, when Pew ran an earlier comparison, North Dakota tax revenues had rebounded 58.7% since the peak of the Great Recession, the highest of all states. That compared to a gain of 27.2% for Minnesota and 21.6% for South Dakota.

US Shale Oil Production -- Year-On-Year Growth -- Rystad Energy -- January 2020

From Rystad Energy, posted earlier.

The Rystad Energy analysis begins:


I found it interesting that the 2015 - 2016 "basin" was not explained. It seems like events are easily forgotten and/or overlooked:


Gasoline Least Expensive In Venezuela -- Bloomberg -- January 20, 2020

It's too bad this is behind a paywell, Bloomberg's "gasoline prices by country" around the world. This is the blurb Bloomberg had for Venezuela, the country with the least expensive gasoline:
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Countries have different ideas as to which rights are inalienable, and Venezuela stands alone in considering almost-free gasoline a birthright. Under the country’s new currency, you can fill up a tank of gas using the smallest coin in circulation. Venezuela isn’t a rich country but consumes gas as though it were.
Bloomberg actually says gasoline costs 0.00 / gallon in Venezuela and the percent of one's annual income spent on gasoline in Venezuela on an annual basis: 0.00%.

I can't make this stuff up. 

In fact:



Rystad Energy: All That Talk About A US Shale Slowdown? Not So Fast -- January 20, 2020

Link here (and below). Spend some time on this one. Archived.

A reader provided this comment based on Rystad Energy analysis of the US shale plays:
Rystad Energy provides pushback on the anti-shale stuff from oilprice.com and others in the mainstream media. From Rystad Energy, best shale predictor last three years:

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/newsletters/UsArchive/shale-newsletter-jan-2020/

0. Yes, rate of growth in 2019 was less than 2018. But 2018 was monstrous at almost 2 million bopd. Still had over 1 million bopd in 2019 (used to be considered large).

1. Permian is most important at ~70% of growth. But still worth checking the other basins to see where the 30% growth comes from.
2. New Mexicanos on pace to pass the North Dakotans in oil production in 3-4 years. Where did you hear that earlier? ;-) [This assumes the environmentalists in New Mexico don't get the upper hand.]
3. A lot of the negative shale stories come from journalists covering the independent shale companies (which have halved growth). But privates and supermajors actually increased growth in 2019 versus 2018. Don't see whole story of the industry if you only follow the "name" shale companies.
4. Long laterals (two-mile vs one-mi)le increasing steadily, with change to development drilling. Old story for the Bakken, but other plays catching up.
5. Base decline ("Red Queen") is starting to flatten out. Grew a lot in 2018 because of the massive boom of new wells. But starting to settle down with slower growth of 2019. (2H19)
5.5. Meanwhile (2H19), wells are STILL getting stronger in new oil production. Sorry peak oilers. Shale keeps getting stronger, not weaker! (Sit down in the corner, Art Berman and hang that sign around your head and put on the cone shaped hat.)

P.s. Note for 5/5.5, the figure actually has a different scale on the bottom part of the y axis (1000 bopd, total shale versus bopd/well). It's a little confusing, but I understand why they want to compare the two. It shows why shale is still growing, even with fewer completions (rig and frack spread drop). Thing is that we're still making more wells than needed to just match the Red Queen.
Year-on-year growth.

Reminder, Previously Posted: A Huge CLR Brooklyn Well To Be Reported This Week -- January 20, 2020

The Brooklyn oil field is tracked here.

This CLR Brooklyn well will be reported this week:

The well:
  • 35563, conf, CLR, Gjorven 12-21HSL, Brooklyn, fracked 4/18/19 - 4/28/19; 8.1 million gallons of water; 87.87% water by mass; FracFocus;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20194405688871
10-20194435076587
9-20191850224105
8-20199630
7-20191100

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 20, 2020

35955, conf, Whiting, Cayko 21-22-3H, Dore,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019204882470
10-20191686510224
9-2019102075863
8-20193267016242
7-201915103

35849, conf, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19F, Heart Butte,

35956, conf, Whiting, Cayko 21-22-2H, Dore,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019187862285
10-2019112406211
9-2019134688284
8-2019140307995
7-2019220

35563, conf, CLR, Gjorven 12-21HSL, Brooklyn,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20194405688871
10-20194435076587
9-20191850224105
8-20199630
7-20191100

35459, conf, CLR, Weisz 4-11H, Pleasant Valley,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20192940336611
10-20191319311432
7-20191280

36259, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HS, Squaw Creek,

36260, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HX, Squaw Creek,

35774, conf, CLR, Boulder 10-4H, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20193437067159
10-20194099467572
9-20193549334756
7-201913510

36291, conf, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-2H3, Mandaree,

36261, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HA, Squaw Creek,

35461, conf, CLR, Weisz 2-11HSL, Beaver Lodge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20193260841744
10-201986879750
7-20194480

36558, conf, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, LTD, Larson 15-10 1H, Covered Bridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019229670
10-2019219380
9-2019111160
 
36463, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HUL, Mandaree,

36290, conf, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-2H, Mandaree,

35881, conf, Whiting, Meiers 12-17-2H, Sanish,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20191766033572
10-20192045322421
9-20191543713998
8-2019151600
7-201923740

35775, conf, CLR, Boulder 11-4H1, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20192690445055
10-20194004459573
9-20191773223166
7-20197770

35460, conf, CLR, Weisz 3-11H1, Pleasant Valley,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201977019259

36289, conf, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3H3A, Mandaree,

34989, conf, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-7H, Painted Woods,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019162943470
10-2019194875658
9-2019138630
8-2019222920
7-201959120

36288, conf, Rimrock Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3HA, Mandaree,

36154, conf, Whiting, Martell 34-36HU, Glass Bluff,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019122155975
10-2019152021400
9-20196273383
8-201919419879
7-2019119781405

33155, conf, BR, Mathistad 7-8-35 MBH, Croff,

36272, conf, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HTL, Spotted Horn,

35880, conf, Whiting, Meiers 12-17-3H, Sanish,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201964257295
10-2019108829832
9-2019118198686
8-2019103640
7-201914030

35015, conf, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-8H, Painted Woods,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019119962616
10-2019145463467
9-2019177930
8-2019194530
7-201981820

33154, conf, BR, Croff 8-1-2 UTFH, Croff,

36199, conf, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HD, Spotted Horn,

35996, conf, Whiting, Martell 34-36-3H, Glass Bluff,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019137208604
10-2019118761554
9-20197730444
8-2019166221
7-2019102872814

35904, conf, CLR, Honolulu 6-15H, Indian Hill,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20191952216611
10-20192694321176
9-20192068114145
8-20194292524796
7-2019121817289

35506, conf, CLR, Weisz 8-11H, Pleasant Valley,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20193671828122
7-20196520

34175, conf, CLR, Ravin 7-1H, Dimmick Lake,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019892918563
10-20193589359602
9-20192006536402
8-20193377059154
7-20191352413607

32780, conf, BR, Cleoff 8-1-2 MBH-ULW, Croff,

36397, conf, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 4-24-11-1HU, Mandaree,

36200, conf, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HZ, Spotted Horn,

35687, conf, BR, Tailgunner 1B TFH, North Fork,

35686, conf, BR, Tailgunner 1A MBH, North Fork,

35505, conf, CLR, Weisz 7-11H1, Pleasant Valley,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20192842422647
7-20191440

34826, conf, Hess, HA-Nelson A-152-95-3427-9, Hawkeye,

32779, SI/NC, BR, Veederstad 8-8-35UTFH-ULW, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- January 20, 2020

Monday, January 27, 2020: 91 for the month; 91 for the quarter,91 for the year:
35955, conf, Whiting, Cayko 21-22-3H, 
35849, conf, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19F,

Sunday, January 26, 2020: 89 for the month; 89 for the quarter, 89 for the year:
35956, conf, Whiting, Cayko 21-22-2H,
35563, conf, CLR, Gjorven 12-21HSL, 
35459, conf, CLR, Weisz 4-11H,

Saturday, January 25, 2020: 86 for the month; 86 for the quarter, 86 for the year:
36259, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HS,

Friday, January 24, 2020: 85 for the month; 85 for the quarter, 85 for the year:
36260, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HX,
35774, conf, CLR, Boulder 10-4H,

Thursday, January 23, 2020: 83 for the month; 83 for the quarter, 83 for the year:
36291, conf, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-2H3
36261, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HA,
35461, conf, CLR, Weisz 2-11HSL, 

Wednesday, January 22, 2020: 80 for the month; 80 for the quarter, 80 for the year:
36558, conf, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, LTD, Larson 15-10 1H, 
36463, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HUL, 
36290, conf, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-2H, 
35881, conf, Whiting, Meiers 12-17-2H, 
35775, conf, CLR, Boulder 11-4H1
35460, conf, CLR, Weisz 3-11-H1

Tuesday, January 21, 2020: 74 for the month; 74 for the quarter, 74 for the year:
36289, conf, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3H3A,
34989, conf, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-7H,

Monday, January 20, 2020:72 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 72 for the year:
36288, conf, Rimrock Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3HA,
36154, conf, Whiting, Martell 34-36HU, 
33155, conf, BR, Mathistad 7-8-35 MBH,

Sunday, January 19, 2020: 69 for the month; 69 for the quarter; 69 for the year:
36272, conf, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HTL,
35880, conf, Whiting, Meiers 12-17-3H, 
35015, conf, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-8H, 
33154, conf, BR, Croff 8-1-2 UTFH,

Saturday, January 18, 2020: 65 for the month; 65 for the quarter; 65 for the year:
36199, conf, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HD, 
35996, conf, Whiting, Martell 34-36-3H, 
35904, conf, CLR, Honolulu 6-15H, 
35506, conf, CLR, Weisz 8-11H, 
34175, conf, CLR, Ravin 7-1H, 
32780, conf, BR, Cleoff 8-1-2 MBH-ULW,

Friday, January 17, 2020: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter; 59 for the year;
36397, conf, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 4-24-11-1HU,
36200, conf, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HZ,
35687, conf, BR, Tailgunner 1B TFH
35686, conf, BR, Tailgunner 1A MBH, 
35505, conf, CLR, Weisz 7-11H1
34826, conf, Hess, HA-Nelson A-152-95-3427-9, 
32779, conf, BR, Veederstad 8-8-35UTFH-ULW,

Sunday, January 19, 2020

California Tesla Registrations Plummet -- January 19, 2020



From Reuters:
Tesla Inc's overall vehicle registrations nearly halved in the U.S. state of California during the fourth quarter.
The massive drop comes as tax credit for Tesla buyers ended in 2019. It had fallen to $3,750 at the start of the year and had halved to $1,875 in July.
An existing $7,500 U.S. tax credit for electric vehicles, which allows taxpayers to deduct a part of the cost of buying an electric car, phases out over 15 months once an automaker hits 200,000 cumulative EV sales, which Tesla hit in July 2018.
The report released on Wednesday showed registrations in California, a bellwether market for the electric-car maker, plummeted 46.5% to 13,584 in the quarter ended December 2019, from 25,402 in the same period a year earlier.
Model 3 registrations, which accounted for about three-fourth of the total, halved to 10,694.

Later, from The Wall Street Journal:
Subaru Corp.’s chief executive said he didn’t see much evidence Americans want electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids and expressed frustration at navigating between environmental regulations and consumer demand.
“The only EVs that are selling well are from Tesla,” said Subaru’s Tomomi Nakamura at a briefing for journalists. [He must have missed the memo -- see story above.]
Tokyo-based Subaru relies on the U.S. for two-thirds of its global sales, and has already had a tough experience trying to sell a vehicle that can be charged at home.
In 2018, it introduced a plug-in hybrid version of the Crosstrek. It said just 300 units of the model were selling each month on average. In this area, Mr. Nakamura said, “We think the U.S. market is really difficult.”
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80% Of Americans Have A Brokerage Account

Really? If that's accurate, I find that amazing. From Yahoo!Finance:
The new report says 21% of Americans don’t have a brokerage account or any other way to invest other than their company 401K or pension plan. But for those who are investing there is a definite difference in the habits of baby boomers and millennials.
If I'm reading that correctly, if 21% of Americans don't have a brokerage account .... that must mean 79% do?