Thursday, October 23, 2014

Fifteen (15) New Permits -- North Dakota, October 23, 2014; 5-Year Outlook For The Bakken

From the Bakken Magzine, the five-year outlook for the Bakken: The graphics are very user friendly: you can click on the first graphic and then scroll through the rest.

California getting more Bakken crude by barge than by rail. is reporting:
Shipments of Bakken crude oil from North Dakota to California by barge have quietly overtaken those by train for the first time, showing how the state’s isolated refiners are using any means necessary to tap into the nation’s shale oil boom.
While tough permitting rules and growing resistance by environmentalists have slowed efforts to build new rail terminals within California itself, a little-known barge port in Oregon has been steadily ramping up shipments to the state, a flow expected to accelerate next year.
From January through June, California received 940,500 barrels of the North Dakota crude oil from barges loaded at terminals in the Pacific Northwest, the highest rate ever.
Bakken crude transported to California on railcars, which has gained widespread attention after a series of fiery train derailments in North America, accounted for just 702,135 barrels over the same time period.
“We’re seeing marine transport of Bakken crude outpace rail for the first time,” Schrempf said. In 2013, rail shipments of 1.35 million barrels exceeded barge shipments of 1.33 million barrels. The year before, almost no crude arrived by barge.
Bakken shipments by barge and rail may only comprise a tiny portion of the crude California imports, at about 5,200 and 4,000 barrels per day respectively, with Alaska supplying over 20 times as much crude.

Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:
27492, conf, Murex, Shauna Michelle 26-35H, Daneville, producing,
27798, conf, Hess, AN-Evenson-152-95-1003H-9, Antelope, no production data,
27839, conf, MRO, Bears Ghost USA 11-4TFH, McGregory Buttes, no production data,
27916, conf, American Eagel, George 3-1-163-102, Skjermo, producing,
27981, conf, Statoil, Paulson 36-1 2H, Briar Creek,

Active rigs:

Active Rigs194181181188196

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Fifteen (15) new permits:
  • Operators: Hunt (4), Enerplus (3), BR (3), Zavanna (2), QEP, HRC, CLR
  • Fields: Werner (Dunn), Ross (Mountrail), Heart Butte (Dunn), Pershing (McKenzie), Stockyard Creek (Williams), Grail (McKenzie), Tyrone (Williams), Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Four (4) producing wells completed:
  • 27013, 200, Oasis, State 5792 31-15 4T2, Cottonwood, t8/14; cum --
  • 27067, 908, Hess, EN-KMJ Uran 154-93-2734H-5, Robinson Lake, t9/14; cum --
  • 28172, 955, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-4H, Elk, t10/14; cum --
  • 28173, 836, Triangle Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-3H, Elk, t10/14; cum -- 
What Some Of Us Will Be Talking About Friday
The Wall Street Journal

Uh-oh. Amazon stumbles on high spending. 

Self-quarantined doctor, breaks his own quarantine, tests positive for Ebola virus. After bowling in NYC. I can't make this stuff up.

At least one indicator is moving in the right direction: activity in China's manufacturing sector rose in October

I didn't see this coming: Microsoft is hot again. Microsoft's sales continue to defy expectations by growing at a much fast clip than those of its business-technology peers.  

OXY profit falls 24%. Previously reported.

Caterpillar posts surprising profit gains. Previously reported.

Nucor announces 66% profit rise on energy boom. Not previously reported.

Uh-oh. Buffetts doubled down on renewables -- and wind power in particular --in his energy strategy.

KKR signaled opportunities ahead, as choppy markets create conditions that can scare off other investors. The private-equity firm said third-quarter profit fell sharply, as its cash haul from deal profits declined.

Dr Pepper tops expectations

Heard on the street: natural-gas bulls: better luck next year.
Cold winter isn't good enough reason to bet on higher gas prices.A bet on the winter starting in late 2015—still risky given the time horizon—could make more sense for one reason: power-plant shutdowns.
Next year will see a swath of coal-fired power plants shut down as a result of tighter environmental standards. Some 30 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity is slated to be retired or at risk of this in 2015, according to Sanford C. Bernstein. That is 60% of the amount expected to close through 2020.
Teri Viswanath of BNP Paribas points out that around 70% of the plants scheduled to close next year are in Midwest and mid-Atlantic states—precisely the regions that relied on those plants during the worst of last winter.
The scheduled start of U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas and continuing construction of export pipelines to Mexico should also add pressure on the demand side.
Does that guarantee a jump in gas prices? No. But it does increase the likelihood of seasonal swings, says Ms. Viswanath. Currently, with the futures curve pretty flat through 2016, this risk isn’t really priced in: The January 2016 contract is a mere 35 cents above the one for October 2015. With a little help from the gods, America’s shifting energy mix could offer gas bulls some delayed gratification.

Stockyard Creek Is Updated; Grail Field Is Updated -- October 23 2014

With four more Zavanna permits for Stockyard Creek, that field has been updated.

The Helis Grail field has been updated

Highlights Of The November, 2014, NDIC Hearing Dockets

Not much new happening.

CLR is starting to increase the number of very large drilling units:
  • 23267, CLR, Hayland, Hamlet, and/or Stoneview-Bakken, establish 2 overlapping 5120-acre unts, 2 wells on each, Divide
  • 23268, CLR, Stoneview-Bakken, establish 2 overlapping 5120-acre units; 2 wells on each; Divide, Williams
  • 23269, CLR, Northwest McGregor, Stoneview, and/or Sauk-Bakken, establih an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 2 wells, Wiliams
  • 23270, CLR, Sauk, Stoneview, and/or Lindahl-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 2 wells, Williams
  • 23271, CLR, Sauk-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 2 wells, Williams
The better Bakken:
  • at least 14 wells on 1280-acre units, e.g., #23272, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, establish 2 1280-acre units; 14 wells on each unit; Williams
  • 8 wells on 640-acre units, e.g., #23262, Newfield, Sand Creek-Bakken, establish 2 640-acre units; 8 wells on each unit; McKenzie;
  • more mega-pads, e.g., #23250, MRO, Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken, i) 4 wells on one 640-acre unit; ii) 9 wells on each of two 1280-acre units; iii) 10 wells on one 1280-acre unit; iv) 11 wells on 3 1280-acre units; McLean;
Flashback, September, 2014:

September, 17 - 18, 2014, dockets; highlights

  • QEP, Grail-Bakken, 24 wells on all of the 640-acre, 1280-acre, and 2560-acre units in most of Grail. 
I don't know about you, but 24 wells on 640-acre units seems to suggest ... well, suggest something.

The November Hearing Dockets Are Out -- October 23, 2014

Link here. I won't get to them for an hour or so.

A quick glance.

Wednesday, only 6 pages, very, very short. Mostly continuation cases.

Thursday, 20 pages, typical length.
  • XTO with three cases, 12 wells on a 1280-acre unit.
  • Lots of pooling and commingling cases; typical of the manufacturing phase in the Bakken.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014

23094, cont'd
14935, cont'd
23232, Hess, Beaver Lodge Devonian Pool, drill horizontal wells in the Three Forks formation; establish a 1280-acre drilling unit, 5 wells; Williams County
22957, cont'd
22958, cont'd
23233, Hess, Long Creek-Bakken, 9 wells on each of 2 1280-acre units; McKenzie, Williams
23234, Hess, Ellsworth-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well, McKenzie
20211, cont'd
23090, cont'd
22640, cont'd
22641, cont'd
23235, Murex, McGregor-Bakken, amend stratigraphic limits; establish a 640-acre unit, 4 wells,  Williams
23236, BR, Bailey-Bakken, establish 2 overlapping 2560-acre units, 1+ wells, Dunn
23237, BR, Killdeer-Bakken, establish 2 overlapping 2560-acre units; 1+ wells; Dunn
23238, BR, Bailey-Bakken, amend stratigraphic limits, Dunn,
23239, BR, Killdeer-Bakken, amend stratigraphic limits, Dunn,
23240, BR, Lone Butte-Bakken, amend stratigraphic limits, Dunn, McKenzie,
23241, MRO, Big Bend and/or Reunion-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Mountrail
23242: MRO, Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken, establish 3 overlapping 2560-acre units; 1+ wells, McLean,
23243, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, establish 3 overlapping 2560-acre units; 1 well each, Dunn,
23244, MRO, Murphy Creek-Bakken, establish 8 overlapping 2560-acre units, 1+ wells on each; Dunn
23103, cont'd
22803, cont'd
23245, NDIC, bond hearing
23246, Jayhawk, SWD
23247, Murex, SWD
23248, KOG, SWD
23249, KOG, SWD
23250, MRO, Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken, i) 4 wells on one 640-acre unit; ii) 9 wells on each of two 1280-acre units; iii) 10 wells on one 1280-acre unit; iv) 11 wells on 3 1280-acre units; McLean
23251, Whiting, pooling,
23252, Whiting, pooling,
23253, Whiting, pooling,
23254, Whiting, pooling,
23255, Whiting, pooling,
23256, Whiting, pooling,
23257, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, 7 wells on each of 2 1280-acre units; Mountrail
23258, Hess, commingling
23259, Liberty Resources, risk penalty legalese

Thursday, October 20, 2014

23260, Newfield, revoke hearing, QEP, Moberg, McKenzie
23261, Newfield, Bear Den-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well, McKenzie
23262, Newfield, Sand Creek-Bakken, establish 2 640-acre units; 8 wells on each unit; McKenzie;
23263, Newfield, Westberg-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well, McKenzie
22663, cont'd
23264, Abraxas, Siverston and/or North Fork-Bakken, establish 2 2560-acre units; 2 wells each; McKenzie
23265, Abraxas, Dimmick Lake, Fancy Buttes, and/or Pershing-Bakken, establish 2 overlapping 2560-acre units, 2 wells in each; McKenzie
23266, CLR, Frazier-Bakken, create a 2560-acre unit, multiple wells; Divide
23267, CLR, Hayland, Hamlet, and/or Stoneview-Bakken, establish 2 overlapping 5120-acre unts, 2 wells on each, Divide
23268, CLR, Stoneview-Bakken, establish 2 overlapping 5120-acre units; 2 wells on each; Divide, Williams
23269, CLR, Northwest McGregor, Stoneview, and/or Sauk-Bakken, establih an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 2 wells, Wiliams
23270, CLR, Sauk, Stoneview, and/or Lindahl-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 2 wells, Williams
23271, CLR, Sauk-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 2 wells, Williams
23272, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, establish 2 1280-acre units; 14 wells on each unit; Williams
23168, cont'd
21997, cont'd
20926, cont'd
20927, cont'd
20928, cont'd
20929, cont'd
23273, XTO, Lost Bridge, Bear creek, Cedar Coulee, and/or Corral Creek-Bakken, establish one overlapping 1280-acre unit; 4 overlapping 2560-acre units, 2 wells each, Dunn
23274, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, establish 1 overlapping 1280-acre units; 2 wells, Dunn
23275, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, alter setback requirements, McKenzie
23276, WPX, Van Hook-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 1 well, McLean
23019, cont'd
23277, Corinthian, Souris-Spearfish/Madison, Zone IV, authorizing rather than requiring the drilling of 2 opposing horizontal wells on a 320-acre unit, Bottineau
20658, cont'd
22996, cont'd
23001, cont'd
22997, cont'd
23143, cont'd
23144, cont'd
23145, cont'd
23278, Sinclair, pooling,
23279, Sinclair, pooling,
23280, Sinclair, pooling,
 23281, Sinclair, pooling,
23282, Sinclair, pooling,
23283, XTO, pooling,
23284, XTO, pooling,
23285, XTO, pooling,
23286, XTO, pooling,
23287, XTO, pooling,
23288, XTO, pooling,
23289, XTO, Corral Creek-Bakken, 12 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Dunn
23290, XTO, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, 12 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Dunn
23291, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, 12 wells on a 640-acre unit; 12 wells on each of four 1280-acre units; Dunn
23292, XTO, commingling,
23293, XTO, commingling,
23294, XTO, commingling,
23295, XTO, commingling,
23296, XTO, commingling,
23297, XTO, commingling,
23298, XTO, commingling,
23299, XTO, commingling,
23300, XTO, commingling,
23301, XTO, commingling,
23302, XTO, commingling,
23303, XTO, commingling,
23304, Newfield, pooling,
23305, Newfield, pooling,
23306, Statoil, pooling,
23307, Statoil, pooling,
23308, Statoil, pooling,
23309, Statoil, pooling,
23310, Statoil, pooling,
23311, Statoil, pooling,
23312, Statoil, pooling,
23313, Statoil, pooling,
23314, Statoil, pooling,
23315, Statoil, pooling,
23316, Statoil, pooling,
23317, Statoil, pooling,
23318, Statoil, pooling,
23319, Statoil, pooling,
23320, Statoil, pooling,
23321, Statoil, pooling,
23322, CLR, pooling,
23323, CLR, pooling,
23324, CLR, pooling,
23325, CLR, pooling,
23326, CLR, pooling,
23327, CLR, commingling, 
23328, CLR, commingling,
23329, CLR, commingling,
23330, CLR, commingling,
21375, cont'd
23331, WPX, pooling,
23332, WPX, pooling,
23333, WPX, pooling,
23334, WPX, pooling,
23335, WPX, pooling,
23336, WPX, pooling,
23337, WPX, pooling,
23338, WPX, pooling,
23339, WPX, pooling,
23340, WPX, pooling,
23341, WPX, pooling,
23342, WPX, pooling,
23343, WPX, pooling,
23344, WPX, pooling,
23345, WPX, pooling,
23346, Fidelity, Zentih-Bakken, 4 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Stark
23347, Triangle, Ragged Butte-Bakken, 12 wells on two existing 1280-acre units; McKenzie
23348, Emerald, Poker Jim-Bakken, 7 wells each of 3 existing 1280-acre units; McKenzie
23349, Emerald, Burning Mine-Bakken, 7 wells an on existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
23350, Emerald, Pierre Creek-Bakken, 7 wells on each of 3 existing 1280-acre units; McKenzie
23351, Emerald, Hay Draw-Bakken, 7 wells on each of 3 existing 1280-acre units; McKenzie
23352, Emerald, MonDak-Bakken, 7 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
23353, Emerald, Charbonneau-Bakken, 7 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
23354, Hunt, commingling,
23355, Hunt, commingling,
23356, Hunt, commingling,
23357, Enduro, injection,
23358, Enduro, injection,
23359, Enduro, injection,
23360, Enduro, injection

Active Rigs At Recent High -- 195; CLR With Some Nice Wells In SCOOP; Initial Unemployment Claims Surge; Thursday, October 23, 2014

It's going to be a busy, busy day. The market is up big, which means there must be a lot of news to cover. Headline: GM, CAT earnings drive stocks higher as "biggest day of 2014" gets underway." Apparently CAT "brightens outlook."

UNP surges, hitting a new 52-week high.

AAPL surges to a new all-time high.

Sears closing 100 stores, laying off 5,500 employees. 

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

CLR Press Release: Four New Springer Wells In SCOOP
Short Lateral EURs: Almost a Million BOE
Long Lateral EURs: As Much As 1.6 Million BOE 

From a press release:
The four new wells had an average horizontal lateral length of approximately 4,475 feet. Continental expects estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of 940,000 gross Boe per well in the oil fairway of the play for a well with a 4,500-foot lateral section. In November 2014 , Continental plans to commence drilling its first extended lateral well in the Springer play, with a planned lateral length of 7,500 feet. The Company expects an average EUR of approximately 1.6 million gross Boe for extended lateral wells of this length, reflecting the 67% longer lateral. Continental reported that the average completed well cost this year has been in line with earlier projected cost of $9.7 million per well. The four newest wells were drilled to an average vertical depth of approximately 12,625 feet and average total measured depth of approximately 17,650 feet.
The UPI talks about the SCOOP here.


Jobs Report

Isn't this an interesting on the jobs report? Was last week's incredible drop to 264,000 an anomaly? What was that all about? Today, the number is back up to 283,000 -- almost as if last week did not happen. Analysts had expected today's number to rise to 281,000. The four-week average, they say, "fell further," to 281,000 from 284,000 last week. Well, of course it did when the number last week unexpectedly plunged to 264,000.

All I can say is "strange," to say the least.

Oh, and this concluding remark from the linked article, in bold: "The labor market is still strong an any slack remaining is just a figment of the Federal Reserve's imagination." I wonder what color the sky is in their universe?


RBN Energy: first in a series on diluent for West.
Demand for diluent range light hydrocarbon materials such as natural gasoline and condensate that are used to reduce the viscosity of heavy Canadian bitumen crude so that it can flow in pipelines, is forecast to increase from 380 Mb/d in 2014 to 685 Mb/d by 2019.
Increasing bitumen crude production in the Western Canadian oil sands region drives that demand.
New large scale bitumen projects in Alberta requires two pipelines – one to ship crude production to market and one to ship in diluent for blending. Today we start a new series detailing the expanding western Canadian diluent distribution network.
RBN has frequently detailed the challenges that producers in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin (WCSB) have faced transporting heavy bitumen crude from the Alberta oil sands formations to market.
Bitumen crude that is not first upgraded by partial refining (to make light synthetic crude oil or SCO) cannot flow in pipelines unless it is diluted by blending with as much as 30 percent of lighter hydrocarbons (known as diluent) or heated up. Heating is used infrequently for short distances but diluent blending is the preferred method for most Canadian producers that ship such heavy crude by pipeline.  Our analysis to date has mostly focused on the longest part of the bitumen crude journey – from pipeline hubs in Edmonton and Hardisty to refineries in the U.S. Midwest and on the Gulf Coast.
 Today's RBN Energy post, by the way, features the Blondie album, "Parallel Lines."


Active rigs in North Dakota:

Active Rigs195181181188196

Earnings On Tap Today

All result in:
  • Amazon, expectations, a loss of 74 cents, after hours; actual, a loss of 95 cents; horrendous; shares plummet; phone flops; predicted;
  • CAT, forecast, $1.36; reported $1.63 with "belt-tightening: but revenue did exceed expectations slightly; shares surge 5%;
  • Edward Lifesciences, forecast 73 cents, after market close: beats by 8 cents; shares surge;
  • Flowserve, after market close, forecast, $1.00; misses by 7 cents; shares down 6%
  • General Motors beats by $0.03, beats on revs 
  • Occidental Petroleum (OXY), forecast $1.57 before market open; misses by a penny; shares up nicely; reports record domestic production of 282,000 bopd
Natural Gas Fill Rate

The magic number is 100. Today's number: 94. See comment below. [Update: the "magic number" of 100 was set several weeks ago; as we get closer to peak withdrawal, the magic number should increase -- we are getting closer to winter and the gap (see graphic below) is not narrowing [if it is narrowing, it is almost imperceptible]. With less time to get back to historical averages, the "magic number" rises.]

At Yahoo!In-Play:
"Natural gas futures spiked to a new session high, and into positive territory, following inventory data."
Update: The quote is theirs, not mine.

See first comment below.

This is what I'm watching: the gap. I lose track of things but it is my impression that things got a bit out of hand last winter when the northeast almost ran out of natural gas. I'm looking at "Last Year" and then comparing "The Gap" going into this year. If it's a mild winter, no big deal. If it's a severe winter, it appears to me, we are entering the season with a relative deficit compared to previous years (5-year historical averages).  I am new to the world of natural gas, and I'm certainly new to the world of natural gas in the northeast, so I am learning as I go along. I find this quite fascinating to be able to watch this play out in "real time."


Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Update On Kashagen -- October 23, 2014

Rigzone is reporting (some figures rounded):
Kazakhstan expects annual oil output to reach as high as 100 million tonnes after 2020 when the giant Kashagan oilfield resumes pumping compared with less than 82 million this year.
Kazakhstan, already the second-largest oil producer after Russia among the former Soviet states, aims to produce 90 million to 100 million tonnes of oil starting in the third decade of this century
The Kazakh government expects output to total 82 million tonnes this year and next.
Kazakhstan produced 81.7 million tonnes in 2013.
For January to September, output fell to 60 million tonnes from 60.5 million in the same period of 2013.
Production at the Kashagan reservoir, the world's biggest oil find in recent times, started in September last year but was halted just a few weeks later after the discovery of gas leaks in the pipeline network of the $50 billion project. Replacing the pipelines at the oilfield, which lies in the Caspian Sea off western Kazakhstan, will cost another $1.6 billion to $3.6 billion.
Mirzagaliyev confirmed earlier official estimates that Kashagan's production could restart in the second half of 2016.
The conversion factor varies based on the specific gravity of the particular petroleum under discussion, but as a rough approximation there are 7 boe in one metric tonne.

100 million tonnes * 7 = 700 million boe annually / 365 = 2 million bbls/day.

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this information is important to you, go to the linked source.

The delta between current production of about 80 million tonnes now and 100 million tonnes when Kashagan comes on line is 20 million tonnes, or about 140 million boe, about 400,000 boe/day.

Global Warming
Climate Change
Extreme Weather

The (London) Express is reporting:

John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible

Instead, what 'little evidence' there is for rising global temperatures points to a 'natural phenomenon' within a developing eco-system.

In an open letter attacking the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he wrote:
  • "The ocean is not rising significantly.
  • "The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number.
  • "Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing).
  • "I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid."
I don't think this story is particularly new; I've seen variations of this story for some time now, I believe.

Increased Density Drilling -- The Discussion Continues -- October 22, 2014

A reader sent me a nice Bloomberg article on increased density drilling:
Based on tighter spacing being tested now in Texas, 16 wells could be drilled on the same parcel at a cost of $5.5 million each. Even if each well yields less, about 400,000 barrels, that’s still a recovery rate of 6.4 million barrels from the same land at a cost of $88 million. Profits in this scenario at today’s oil price would amount to $424 million, or almost triple.
To counter production declines in individual wells, companies are using a combination of methods, including drilling wells that extend farther underground horizontally and using more sand to prop open cracks during fracking. Data from EOG’s tight well spacing tests in Texas’s Eagle Ford are showing the tactics are helping producers keep per-well recovery the same, or even higher.
Tighter spacing was the primary reason EOG boosted its estimate for how much oil and gas it may be able to get out of the Eagle Ford by 1 billion barrels in the past year. The company’s use of spacing and other techniques has helped top operators such as EOG reduce their costs to $46 a barrel in the formation, according to Wells Fargo & Co. That’s about 32 percent below the average across the area estimated by ITG. 
Did you all see the "break-even" cost being suggested?

This is an excellent article, especially for newbies. I don't agree with some of the assumptions but at least an article like this puts everything on the table for those new to the discussion.

Speaking of Increased Density 

Four more permits today for little Stockyard Creek east of Williston. Zavanna permits. More later.

Flaring Update -- October 22, 2014

This July, North Dakota set goals to reduce flaring in the state significantly by 2020. The state planned to gradually reduce the amount of natural gas that each well site is allowed to burn off each quarter. According to the U.S. Energy Department, North Dakota was on track to meet these goals as of August. 
In August, the state reported flaring 28 percent of its natural gas, getting pretty close to its goal of a 26 percent flare-rate by the fourth quarter of 2014. Oil production itself rose in August as well, making it more difficult to reach its flaring goals.
From the Director's Cut for August data (October 15, 2014):
  • NDIC now breaks down location of captured gas: statewide (72%); statewide Bakken (72.5%); non-FBIR Bakken (74.4%); FBIR Bakken (64.5%)
Toward A Cashless Society

To be brutally frank, I never thought Apple would deliver on ApplePay in my lifetime. I thought there were too many hurdles. Even if Apple did it in my lifetime, I thought it would be another decade. But here it is, seemingly overnight, and folks are now paying with ApplePay on their iPhones. I saw one transaction today.

I'm sure everyone saw the amateur video in which a customer paid with ApplePay at a McDonald's.

A couple of minutes ago a reader said he received an e-mail from Wal-Greens saying they were now accepting ApplePay.

I replied:
I think Apple will change the way things are paid for in this country.
There are some glitches, to be sure (Bank of America / Apple reported a glitch today), but those glitches will be worked out.
The glitch, by the way, "proved" that there is no way for anyone to hack one's credit card number: neither Bank of America or Apple could verify a glitch had occurred; neither could access the credit card number. In the end, they had to take the word of the customer and the "evidence."
Apple may have the only"really" secure way to pay right now. The banks all went along, but the scuttlebutt is they had no choice. Once one credit card signed on with Apple, they all had to.
And that will be the same for retailers. I have a soft spot in my heart for Apple for many, many reasons, but none of them have to do with investing. I have never invested in Apple (I missed that one).
Maybe I should re-phrase that first sentence: Apple has, in one stroke, changed the way we will pay for things in the future, not just in the US, but worldwide. Literally overnight. I don't know when we first heard about ApplePay -- two years ago? Whatever.

This is revolutionary. 

I remember two or three years ago, after every quarter, the headline on some business page: What will Apple do next? I haven't seen that headline in a long time.

By the way, this speaks volumes about "focus." Either Tim Cook or someone else at Apple talked about "focus." Paraphrasing Steve Jobs, Tim Cook, or someone else: focus is when you can remain on task even when confronted with something else that is so much bigger and better. Apple put aside tablets some years ago to focus on phones. Then they got back to tablets. Or maybe it was the other way around, I forget. I think they put aside ApplePay until they got the phones and the tablets right. Then they worked on ApplePay. Sure, they can do all this in parallel, but some things have to be developed first, and ...

Comparing Legacy And Corinthian Wells Targeting The Spearfish In North Dakota: A Random Update -- October 22, 2014

A reader noted this less-than-spectacular well in the Spearfish, coming off the confidential list today. There are two names that make up most of the Spearfish activity in North Dakota right now: Legacy and Corinthian. My understanding is that Legacy bought Corinthian acreage earlier this year, but permits are still being issued for both Legacy and for Corinthian.

A reader noted this less-than-spectacular well that was reported today:
  • 28112, 11, Legacy, Legacy Berge 13-31H, North Souris, a Spearfish well, t6/14; cum --
I was curious: are the IPs of the wells significantly different between Legacy and Corinthian, and are their significant differences in IPs in the various Spearfish fields? The IPs are listed below for wells whose permits were issued in the given year. I did not include wells with permits from 2104; too many of them would not yet be completed.

About all I can tell, is that the "Corinthian" wells have marginally better IPs than the "Legacy" wells; and the North Souris oil field is probably a bit better than Red Rock.

I only looked at a couple of well files; it looks like these wells are being completed with 24 - 26 stages, and 200,000 lbs of proppant, compared to 2 million lbs and more of proppant in Bakken wells.

Maybe other readers have a different perspective. 

In a long note like this, there will be typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

"Corinthian" wells
26035, 75, North Souris,
26150, drl, North Souris,
26036, 45, North Souris,
26573, 116, North Souris,
27052, 155, North Souris,
27051, 259, North Souris,
26942, conf, North Souris,
26941, 99, North Souris,
26762, 99, North Souris,
26724, 74, North Souris,
26714, 74, North Souris,
26713, 74, North Souris,
25813, 205, North Souris,
25697, 130, North Souris,
25696, 167, North Souris,
25685, 92, North Souris,
25643, 114, North Souris,
25561, 136, North Souris,
25560, 90, North Souris,
24940, 27, North Souris,
24883, 314, North Souris,   (North Souris average: 123)
26474, 52, Souris,
26492, 26,  Northeast Landa
26181, 11, Northeast Landa,
26349, 167, Northeast Landa,
26343, 34, Northeast Landa,
26336, 10, Red Rock,
26162, conf, Wildcat,

27210, 89, North Souris,
26004, 99, North Souris,
26003, 99, North Souris,
25993, 27, North Souris,
25523, 77, North Souris,
25054, 95, North Souris (North Souris average: 81)
25558, conf, North Souris,
26255, 100, Red Rock,
25517, 138, Red Rock,
27212, 100, Red Rock,
27211, 51, Red Rock,
25816, 34, Red Rock,
25752, 115, Red Rock,
25751, 56, Red Rock,
25750, 54, Red Rock,
25712, 38, Red Rock,
25702, 138, Red Rock,
25273, 75, Red Rock,
25214, 65, Red Rock,
25024, 132, Red Rock,


24680, 114, Northeast Landa, 
23895, 133, North Souris,
23894, 146, North Souris,
23815, 134, North Souris,
23811, 134, North Souris,
23704, 141, North Souris,
23581, 189, North Souris,
23143, 189, North Souris,
23075, 80, North Souris,
23073, 140, North Souris,
22969, 105, North Souris,
22964, 139, North Souris,
22321, 149, North Souris,
22257, 139, North Souris,
22254, 140, North Souris,

24177, 15, wildcat,
23399, 79, North Souris,
24148, 132, Red Rock,
22364, 138, Red Rock,

22123, 128, North Souris,
22121, 94, North Souris,
22064, 110, North Souris

21504, 126, North Souris,
21951, 157, North Souris, 
21821, 180, North Souris,
21820, 83, North Souris,
21549, 88, North Souris,
21482, 30, Red Rock,
21922, 94, Red Rock,
21921, 97, Red Rock,
21887, 182, Red Rock,
21389, 104, Red Rock,
21323, 125, Red Rock,

And So It Begans, The Evening News -- October 22, 2014

Bloomberg is reporting:
OXY said profit from the California oil producer it’s spinning off to shareholders next month fell during the third quarter as crude prices slid and production costs increased.
California Resources Corp. (CRC-W), as the unit will be known when it becomes a stand-alone company, had net income of $188 million during the July-to-September period, compared with $235 million a year earlier, Houston-based Occidental said in a statement today.
From a press release, ONEOK increases it's quarterly cash dividend:
The board of directors of ONEOK, Inc. today increased ONEOK's quarterly cash dividend by 1.5 cents per share, or 3 percent, to 59 cents per share, effective for the third quarter 2014, resulting in an annualized cash dividend of $2.36 per share. The dividend is payable Nov. 14, 2014, to shareholders of record at the close of business Nov. 3, 2014. 

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 27965, drl, XTO, Kathy 31X-15H, Tioga, no production data,
  • 27983, drl, Statoil, Paulson 36-1 8TFH, Briar Creek, no production data,
Active rigs in North Dakota:

Active Rigs193182185195151

Fifteen (15) new permits:
  • Operators: Slawson (5), Zavanna (4), Whiting (2), Abraxas (2), Crescent Point, Zargon
  • Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail), Stockyard Creek (Williams), Timber Creek (McKenzie), North Fork (McKenzie), Little Muddy (Williams), Mackobee Coulee (Renville)
  • Comments:
Six (6) producing wells completed:
  • 26267, 1,672, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28D-21-6H, Charlson, t9/14; cum --
  • 26801, 663, Hess, SC-Tom-153-98-1514H-6, t9/14; cum --
  • 27226, 1,051, Hess, BW-R Peterson-149-99-1102H-3, Cherry Creek, t9/14; cum --
  • 27297, 589, Hess, EN-Ortloff-156-94-2635H-4, Big Butte, t9/14; cum --
  • 27592, 780, Slawson, Challenger Federal 5-29-32TFH, Big Bend, t8/14; cum 10K 8/14;
  • 27593, 519, Slawson, Challenger Federal 3-29-32H, Big Bend, t9/14; cum 12K 8/14;