Monday, December 9, 2019

To Readers: Keep Sending Me Your Links, Comments -- But I'm Exhausted -- Will Take The Evening Off -- December 9, 2019

I had an incredibly physically and mentally exhausting day. I need to take a break. I had so many great links and comments from readers, thank you.

Keep sending me stories, links, comments. I will get to them but I might not get to them tonight.

But, wow, there is so much going on. Hard to keep up.

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Numbers Don't Lie

Minnesota is #40.

Oregon is #44.

Montana is #38.

Iowa is #25.

I've been waiting for this list. 

It's the annual ALEC-Laffer State Economic Outlook Rankings, 2019.

Story at this link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/utah-idaho-north-dakota-nevada-indiana-best-economic-outlook.

#5: Indiana

#4: Nevada

#3: North Dakota

#2: Huge shout-out to Idaho -- they've had a decade of tough times

and, #1 ... Utah.

Texas doesn't make the top five. The Lone Star state is #15. Okay. But much worse than I would have guessed.

The five states (sic) with the worst economic outlook:
  • Hawaii
  • New Jersey
  • California
  • Illinois
  • Vermont
  • New York
"The report ranked Hawaii, New Jersey, California, Illinois, Vermont and New York as the five states with the worst economic outlook, respectively." -- That's a direct cut and paste from the article; screen shot pending. I count six states. Apparently, someone is either counting New York and New Jersey as one state, or they don't consider Hawaii a real state. Of course, President Obama thought there were 57 states.

I'm not surprised to see New York/New Jersey on the list, but I am very, very surprised to see California on the list. That's scary. California's economy is perhaps the fifth largest economy in the world.

One wonders what Vermont is doing [wrong] to make that list?

US Petroleum Exports Exceed Imports In September, 2019

Link here.
In September 2019, the United States exported 89,000 barrels per day (b/d) more petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) than it imported, the first month this has happened since monthly records began in 1973.
A decade ago, the United States was importing 10 million b/d more petroleum than it was exporting.
Long-running changes in U.S. trade patterns for both crude oil and petroleum products have resulted in a steady decrease in overall U.S. net petroleum imports.
But note:
Despite increasing exports of crude oil, however, the United States remains a net importer of crude oil. The United States continues importing primarily heavy high-sulfur crude oils that most U.S. refineries are configured to process, and more than 60% of U.S. crude oil imports come from Canada and Mexico.
 There was a reason why "we" wanted the Keystone XL.

The Disconnect Between Natural Gas - Crude Oil Pricing -- Part 2 -- December 9, 2019

Link here to part 1.

This was EIA's projection back in 2009, for the 2010 report:


So, if I understand the graph correctly, back in 2010, the EIA forecast a ratio of 3 to 1 for price of oil to price of natural gas in usual methods of pricing oil and natural gas. If crude oil was trading for $60, then natural gas should be about $20.

So, how did their projections work out? Also from the EIA:


Price of oil is on the x-axis at the left (currently about $50) while the price of natural gas is on the x-axes on the right (currently about $2). And between 2010 and 2014, the spread was much wider.

The tea leaves suggest the spread may widen slightly over the next eighteen months:
  • natural gas prices should come down another 25 cents;
  • crude oil should increase another $2 to $5

For The Record -- A McKenzie County Spill -- December 9, 2019

From The Williston Herald:
A vibration that sheared off a bolt resulted in the release of 480 barrels of crude oil on Saturday, Dec. 7 in McKenzie County at an Encana subsidiary’s well site.
The spill was reported by Newfield Production Company at the Sturgeon 150-99-18-193H well (sic), which is located about 6 miles west of Watford City.
All of the crude oil that was released was contained to the required dikes and berms around the facility.
More at the link. I'm impressed. It is customary to report spills in "gallons." In this case it was reported in "bbls."

In fact, the well is Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-3H:
  • 35979,  2,461, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-3H, Newfield (Encana), South Tobacco Garden, t7/19; cum 96K 10/39, 42K well;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2019302623825897330373736936852517
BAKKEN9-2019171689016561203982442924164265
BAKKEN8-2019284198241767471466111060324786
BAKKEN7-201951059610199350212409113961013

WTI Down, But Appears To Hold At $59; Whiting With One New Permit But Cancels Another Seventeen Permits; Bruin With Eight Huge DUCs Completed -- December 9, 2019

Active rigs:

$59.0012/9/201912/09/201812/09/201712/09/201612/09/2015
Active Rigs5664534065

One new permit today, #37275:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has a permit for another Roggenbuck Federal well in section 24-153-93, Sanish oil field
Whiting canceled another seventeen permits:
  • 31239, Carscallen, Williams County, Truax oil field,
  • 31237, Carscallen, Williams County, Truax oil field;
  • 34443, Rennerfeldt, Williams County, Stockyard Creek,
  • 30851, Sue, Williams County, Stockyard Creek,
  • 30840, P Earl Rennerfeldt, Williams County, Stockyard Creek, 
  • 30716, Kaldah, Williams County, Ray,
  • 27411, Helling, Williams County, Ray,
  • 26165, Zalesky, Stark County, North Creek,
  • 26166, Zalesky, Stark County, North Creek,
  • 30010, Kostelecky, Stark County, South Heart,
  • 28292, Kostelecky, Stark County, South Heart,
  • 29179, Iver & Minnie, Stark County, Zenith, 
  • 36387, Ogden, Mountrail County, Sanish,
  • 36390, Ogden, Mountrail County, Sanish,
  • 33053, Mallow, McKenzie County, Pembroke,
  • 26896, Faiman, Dunn County, St Anthony,
  • 26895, Faiman, Dunn County, St Anthony,
Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31458, 6,311, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-6B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 35962, 4,471, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-7T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 35963, 4,103, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-8T2, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 35964, 5,029, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-9B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 31455, 5,346, Bruin, FB James 15--94-3A-10-11B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 31456, 4,617, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-12T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 31457, 4,406, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-13B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 31454, 5,603, Bruin, FB James 15-94-3A-10-10T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;

What's Going On With Whiting? -- December 9, 2019

What's going on with Whiting? Whiting has canceled three Periot wells in Dollar Joe oil field (Williams County) out of eight Periot permits, and has not done anything with two very old Periot permits.

See also: Whiting cancels seventeen permits.

I count four active rigs for Whiting, two in Mountrail County, and two in McKenzie County.

I don't have the denominator for the following years, the denominator being the number of permits Whiting was issued for that year. It should be remembered that Saudi Arabia "flooded" the world with oil in an attempt to destroy the US shale industry from about 2014 - 2016.

By the year issued, these are the number of permits canceled by Whiting. Obviously permits issued in past years were canceled this year, so this is not the number of permits canceled per year -- if that makes sense.

So far in 2019, it appears Whiting has canceled 47 permits. This compares with previous years:
  • 2018: 7
  • 2017: 9
  • 2016, Saudi's actions impacting US shale: 36
  • 2015, Saudi's actions impacting US shale: 44
  • 2014, by mid-year, Saudi's actions impacted US shale: 21
  • 2013: 21
  • 2012: 19
  • 2011: 8
  • 2010: 7
  • 2009: 5
  • 2008: 5
  • 2007, the year of the "discovery well" in the Bakken: 2
  • 2006: 5
  • 2005: 1
  • 2004: 1
  • 2003: no North Dakota Whiting permits canceled in 2003 or prior
Disclaimer: the usual disclaimers pertain.

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Politics

What are the pollsters afraid of?

The last national poll, a week ago, 12/1 - 12/3.

The last Iowa poll, a month ago, 11/15 - 11/19.

The last New Hampshire poll, a couple of weeks ago, 11/22 - 11/26.

Daily tracking poll, approval:
  • Trump: 51%
  • Obama (same point in office): 45%
Later, just an hour later after posting the above, a new poll was released:
Harvard-Harris poll released today: Hillary Clinton at top of list among Democrat voters. At 21% she is statistically tied with Biden, 20%. Others, Sanders, 12%; Pocahontas, 9%; and Bloomberg, 7%. Pocahontas has truly imploded; she will stick it out through Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire, but then after that, it's all over but the screech and "here's the thing." I was surprised to see Sanders drop below 15%; his support is fairly committed and unlikely to change. Or are they? Have some of Sanders' supporters moved to Hillary? 
The top five poll only 69% which means these five will split 31% as the others withdraw over the next few months. 

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- December 9, 2019

Christmas gifts. Fortunately her teacher clarified that we're just talking about a toy and not the real thing. Real unicorns are in such short supply around the holidays.


Orcadian Picts? Quick! Everyone knows what a Pict is but does anyone know what "Orcadian" means?  From The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009, page 66. There are two interesting things about this story:
  • there were Northern Picts, and there were Southern Picts; who knew? and,
  • it appears that somewhere between the 8th century and the 9th century, practically all native Picts were wiped out.
By the Vikings.

On another note, the only two "tribes" the Romans were unable to subdue/subjugate: the Germanic tribes (think Goths and Vandals) and the Vikings.

My paternal heritage: Norwegian Vikings.

My maternal heritage: Germanic tribes, just not sure which one(s).

Scary. And then the children/grandchildren have a Japanese samurai warrior in their background.

I can't wait until Sophia is asked to write a family history essay in third grade: I'll provide her a great theme.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 9, 2019

First things first: from Powerline, and we're not talking about the northern California fires, the week in pictures.

Top two, and it was a tough choice:



That Peloton Ad -- December 9, 2019

Now, back to the first story I posted earlier this morning:
First things first: there are so many story lines here, one does not know where to begin, but because it's such a busy day, I will simply provide the link and come back to this later: Peloton girl revisited.
The two ads currently running that absolutely, positively "bother" me the most are the "Peloton girl" ad and the Bloomberg ad(s). I think there are two Bloomberg ads. For a multi-billionaire with more money than Trump -- much more money than Trump, by the way -- I find it incredible that Bloomberg was able to field only two different ads. And both seem identical. But I digress.

There are so many story lines with the "Peloton girl" ad. Here's a video before I get started.

First and foremost: the reason this ad is disliked so much it seems to be very, very sexist. A husband (live-in boyfriend?) buys a Peloton for his wife (live-in girlfriend?) which suggests to many/most that he finds her a bit on the heavy side and needs to lose some weight. LOL. Not good. So how could a company make such a huge mistake? That's easy. It has to do with how the company "sees itself." The CEO recently said that Peloton is not a fitness company but rather Peloton is in the "streaming video" market. And that makes sense: there's a lot more money to be made in streaming video (think Disney) than fitness (think LA Fitness). And, so, the Peloton folks never saw this as a sexist fitness ad but a tech savvy ad.

Of course, the CEO is disingenuous. Peloton is upping its ad presence right during the Christmas season exactly when fitness centers have historically pushed their product, hoping to get people to act on their New Year's resolutions to become more fit. At the end of the day, Peloton is a "fitness company."

A second story line is the degree to which folks actually watch commercials on YouTube as full videos, and then like/dislike them.

A third story line, of course, is the fact that I was aligned with the majority of those commenting the Peloton video.

A fourth story line: to watch whether Peloton pulls this video. Of course, pundits will tell you it doesn't matter -- the important thing is that people are talking about Peloton. I'm not so sure.

A fifth story line: how a commercial can be a life-changing event for a previously unknown actor/actress.

The sixth and last story line for now: the big, big winner (second only to the actress) is Aviation gin. LOL.

And, finally, the original Peloton girl:

Keeping Texas Great -- Disruptive Technology? -- December 9, 2019

Using the phrase "disruptive technology" seems a bit of hyperbole but what do I know. From Rigone, again:
Chevron Technology Ventures (CTV) has invested in an Austin, Texas-based manufacturer of spark-proof electric motors that aims to disrupt the oil and gas and other industries.
CTV invested in Infinitum through the firm’s latest round of financing, which raised $12.5 million and was spearheaded by Cottonwood Technology Fund which plans to use the fresh capital to hire more employees and open a new headquarters and manufacturing facility in Austin.
Infinitum’s growth plans hinge on bringing to market its lightweight, printed circuit board stator technology-based electric motors. It contends the motors – to be marketed for various oil and gas, aerospace and heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) applications – offer very high efficiency and durability and are Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled.
“Our patented motor technology will completely transform the electric motor market, a market that has changed very little since inception more than 100 years ago,” commented Ben Schuler, Infinitum’s CEO.
" ... will completely transform the electric motor market." So, we'll see.