Saturday, February 23, 2019

Billionaires Just Wanna Have Fun -- February 23, 2019

I have definitely lost track of pricing in this industry. I thought it was a minimum of $799 just to get in the door. And for less than $1,000, one would "have to know somebody."

But $79/hour? Are you kidding? Billionaires? And they go to an establishment not vetted by their organizations, and apparently ask for the special of the day.

When you look at the photos in this rogues' gallery, it now makes sense why they had to pay for their night out.

I feel sad for the servers. $79/hour. Maybe they make their money on tips.  If so I hope the servers were not kuchar'd for all their hard work. I was going to stay "stiff'd" but I thought best not to go there.

Girls Just Wanna Have Some, Chromatics

Cashiered. Kuchar'd.

Update -- I'm Back -- February 23, 2019 -- Did Jeff Bezos Just Get Offered A "Gift Horse"?

Instead of sending an individual reply to all the e-mail I received overnight asking "what happened; where are you?" I'll just sent a "group note."

I'm fine. I took the night off and got a late start this morning (Friday night, Saturday morning).

There is simply too much going on. Soccer, gymnastics, water polo, swimming lessons for the granddaughters, and then the golf tournament on television, the Charlie Pride "special" and it goes on and on.

But I'm back but working at 33-and-a-third rather than the usual 78 rpm.

And, then, of course, ever since we got the word that the Canadian National Energy Board recommended approval of the TransMountain pipeline with 156 conditions, I've been enjoying Bob and Doug:

Connecting The Dots

Wow, if Amazon and Boston can't take advantage of recent events in a "New York minute" color me disappointed.

Look at this. Just days ago, Amazon announces they will not build one-half of HQ2 in Long Island City, Queens, NYC.  Amazon was looking for a site
  • in the northeast
  • with lots of public transportation
  • with lots of financial capital access
  • with lots of highly educated tech people
If it can't be NYC, why not Boston?

If Elizabeth Warren wants to put "space" between her and Occasional-Cortex, Pocahontas needs to get out in front of this now.

For Jeff Bezos, this would be like a gift horse. 

But hey, is there any place in Boston to build? You betcha.

From Chesto over at The Boston Globe:
School for sale: Want to buy a piece of a Brookline hilltop? Newbury College's campus is hitting the market, as the financially strapped school prepares to close after this semester. Colliers International, the brokerage handling the sale, said no purchase price has been set on the 7.8-acre campus in the Fisher Hill neighborhood. It's already attracting interest from private-sector bidders. But you've got to wonder if the town of Brookline makes a play for the property, given the town's well known needs for more school space. 
Newbury College:
  • the main campus: 10,000 acres
  • just completed a 16,000 square foot student union
  • satellite campuses: as many as 15 across eastern Massachusetts
  • within biking distance of:
    • Harvard University
    • MIT
    • Harvard Business School
    • Harvard Medical School
    • Boston University
There are 25 universities and colleges in the Boston area. 

Take Off, Eh! The TransMountain Pipeline -- February 23, 2019

This is just some housekeeping regarding the TransMountain pipeline in western Canada. Nothing new here.

One hardly needs to make any comments about the National Energy Board's recommendations.

It's actually pretty "funny" for lack of a better word. I think the Canadian NEB was able to thread the needle in such a way to piss off anyone who has a dog in this fight. From what I can tell, this is what the NEB says:
This pipeline is absolutely the worse thing we can be doing when it comes to the killer whales and then there are a few issues with the pipeline route itself, not to even mention that this doesn't help the AGW issue at all. Why don't you just build a pipeline to North Dakota? They seem friendly enough. 
But go ahead, build your damn pipeline, you've sunk this much money and time into it, why not? But if you are really serious about building this monstrosity, be prepared to answer 156 conditions.
Note: I may have written earlier that it was 165 conditions. If I did, my bad. Sorry. I hope that was not material to your thoughts on this recommendation. 

Sort of reminds me of Bob and Doug McKenzie, "Great White North" skits on Second City TV years ago.

Yesterday I posted:
TransMountain: I think I read that the Canadian national energy regulator approved the TransMountain pipeline although the agency said it was "bad" for the environment. The government will now vote whether to proceed. (It will.) And then protests and lawsuits to follow.
Today, from a reader:
Here's the recent NEB document recommending TransMountain approval:

I found it to be page 9 of a 689 page volume.  It's actually titled "i" of the attached

Here's a screenshot of the bottom of that page:

After completing the Reconsideration hearing and having regard to all relevant considerations, the Board is of the view that the Project is and will be required by the present and future public convenience and necessity, and is in the Canadian public interest. Pursuant to the National Energy Board Act (NEB Act), the Board confirms the recommendation, and replaces certain conditions, that it provided to the GIC in its OH-001-2014 Report. The Board recommends that the GIC approve the Project by directing the issuance of a certificate of public convenience and necessity (CPCN) to Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC (Trans Mountain), subject to 156 conditions. Pursuant to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, 2012 (CEAA 2012) the Board is of the view that the designated Project is likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects. Specifically, Project-related marine shipping is likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects on the Southern resident killer whale, and on Indigenous cultural use associated with the Southern resident killer whale. This is despite the fact that effects from Project-related marine shipping will be a small fraction of the total cumulative effects, and the level of marine traffic is expected to increase regardless of whether the Project is approved. The Board also finds that greenhouse gas (or GHG) emissions from Project-related marine vessels would result in measureable increases and, taking a precautionary approach, are likely to be significant. While a credible worst-case spill from the Project or a Project-related vessel is not likely, if it were to occur, the environmental effects would be significant. While these effects weighed heavily in the Board’s reconsideration of Project-related marine shipping, the Board recommends that, in light of the considerable benefits of the Project and measures to mitigate the effects, the GIC find that they can be justified in the circumstances. The Board has identified a recommended follow-up program to be implemented with respect to the designated Project. Pursuant to the Species at Risk Act (SARA), the Board has identified the adverse effects of the Project and its related marine shipping on each SARA-listed wildlife species and its critical habitat, and has imposed (through conditions) and recommended (to the GIC) measures to avoid or lessen those effects and to monitor them.

Friday, February 22, 2019

MRO With Three New Permits In Chimney Butte -- February 22, 2019

TransMountain: I think I read that the Canadian national energy regulator approved the TransMountain pipeline although the agency said it was "bad" for the environment. The government will now vote whether to proceed. (It will.) And then protests and lawsuits to follow. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66564339127

Three new permits:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Chimney Butte (Dunn County)
  • Comments: MRO has permits for a 3-well pad in SESW 23-146-95;
Six permits renewed:
  • QEP (4): four Moberg permits in McKenzie County
  • RimRock (2): two Moccasin Creek permits in Dunn County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35328, 1,105, Kraken, Pocasset LW 32-29 1H, Oliver, t1/19; cum --;
  • 35327, 737, Kraken, Pocasset 32-29 4TFH, Oliver, t1/19; cum --;
Of interest:
  • Oasis had permits for seven Three Forks wells in Williams County; all were changed to middle Bakken wells (#34107, #34109, #34132, #34135, #34234, #34336, #34338)  

Random Look At Two "50K" Wells Drilled Early In The Bakken Boom -- February 22, 2019

See this post

I do not recall seeing many "50K" wells in the early Bakken boom. Here are two of them, one horizontal is about two miles long; the other is about a mile long.

The wells:
  • 25646, 607, EOG, Wayzetta 30-3230H, Parshall, t11/13; cum 749K 12/18;
  • 25647, 110, EOG, Wayzetta 30-3230H, ICO, Parshall, t11/13; cum 757K 12/18; still doing very well; 4,000 bbls/month; see full production profile below

For Newbies: Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 In The Bakken -- February 22, 2019 -- IN PROGRESS

All information below pertains to the Bakken unless stated otherwise.

Information below is all personal opinion based on my "reading" of the tea leaves.

I wear "oily-covered glasses" when looking at Bakken data.

This is is posted only for conversational purposes. There will be typographical and factual errors. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wells yet to be drilled: 20,000 to 70,000

Time frame: 20 years to 50 years

It all depends on demand.

  • Tier 1: locations in the Bakken that show increased activity when prices stay below $50
  • Tier 2 locations move to Tier 1 locations: when WTI trends from $50 to $65
  • Tier 3 locations move to Tier 1 locations when WTI trends toward $100
Trending now:
  • 12 wells in 1280-acre drilling units in Tier 1 locations
  • adding those overlapping 2560-acre units to capture "orphan" oil along section lines
  • setback rules have been changed: we might see more re-entry drilling to extend existing laterals; if extended, the wells will be re-fracked; consider it a new well
Formations targeted:
  • middle Bakken/Three Forks: about a 60/40 split, I suppose, a "wag"
  • CLR is the "only" operator routinely testing the second bench of the Three Forks
Re-frack: "every well" drilled/completed before 2014, maybe 2016, will have to be re-fracked; they will be re-fracked based on many criteria, but Tier 1-2-3 will be a good starting point

Best metric to follow right now: "frack team / rig" ratio; I don't have that number for the Bakken
  • in the Permian, it is being reported today that the "frack team / rig" spread is narrowing (increasing number of frack spreads / rigs holding steady or slowly increasing
  • 500 rigs
  • 150 frack spreads (for newbies: a "frack spread" is oil patch jargon for all the resources required to frack a well -- personnel; equipment; water; sand; ceramic; etc
  • Permian frack spread / rig ratio: 30 percent
  • Permian rig / frack spread: 3:1
Boom vs manufacturing stage:
  • the Bakken is said to be in the manufacturing stage
  • the Permian: still in the boom stage
For newbies: the best way to determine when a tight field/basin has transitioned from "boom" to "manufacturing": when pad drilling becomes the norm
  • one is definitely in the manufacturing stage when mega-pads (at least 6 wells per pad) become the norm
The Permian:
Production at the Permian Basin, the largest shale play, is set to exceed 4 million barrels per day for the first time in March. As such, this shale play alone significantly exceeds the amounts produced by the United Arab Emirates, Brazil and Kuwait. Only five countries produce more oil than the Permian Basin, excluding the US.

A New Non-Operator In The Bakken? Lincoln Energy Partners -- February 22, 2019

In the March, 2019, hearing dockets, these two cases (not permits, but cases):
  • 27406, Lincoln Energy Partners, Murphy Creek-Bakken, establish two 2560-acre units; 12 wells on each in 13/14/23/24-144-94; and, 3/4/9/10-143-94, Dunn County
  • 27407, Lincoln Energy Partners, Saxon-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, 12 wells on 25/26/35/36-145-93; Dunn County
Over at the NDIC site: Lincoln Energy Partners is/are not found.

Over at "Bakken Operators," Lincoln Energy Partners is/are not found.

Website for Lincoln Energy Partners.
  • 852 N. Broadway, Suite 300, Denver, CO 80203
  • non-operator
  • landmen
  • prior to recent foray into the Bakken, it appears they were concentrated on the :
  • DJ Basin Niobraraand Codell
  • Powder River Basin
  • the Bakken not yet mentioned (February 22, 2019)
For newbies: a great example of a non-operator in the Bakken is NOG, also found over at the "Bakken Operators" page, linked above.

March, 2019, Hearing Dockets Have Been Posted

NDIC posts the hearing dockets here.

Dockets are tracked here

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

For now, these are the cases that caught my attention. I will come back to this page to complete it later. 

Wednesday, March 20, 2019 -- eight pages (on the low side)

27361, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, establish four stand-up 1280-acre units (5/8; 6/7; 17/20; and 18/19-158-94); 12 wells in each; 48 wells total; Mountrail
27368, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, 12 wells on a 1280-acre unit; 14/23-158-95; Williams
27369, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 14/15-156-95; Williams
27370, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken,  7 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 12/13-155-96, Williams
27371, Hess, Capa-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 24/25-155-95; Williams
27372, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, 11 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 5/6/7/8-154-94; Mountrail
27373, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, 6 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 5/8-154-94, Mountrail
27374, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, 6 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 6/7-154-94; Mountrail
27393, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 2/3-152-93, Mountrail

Thursday, March 21, 2019 -- 12 pages (about average)

27398, NDIC, consider termination of the Tracy Mountain-Tyler unit, Billings County, operated by Southwestern Production Corp, Billings County;
27399, Denbury Onshore, temporary spacing for and oil and/or gas pool discovered by Denbury straddling the ND-Montana state line in the southwest corner of North Dakota; Bowman County, ND; Fallon County, MT
27400, Iron Oil Operating, Boxcar Butte-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit ; 21/22-148-102; multiple wells; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, 3/10/15-148-102, multiople wells; establish another 1920-acre unit, 4/9/16-148-102; McKenzie County
27401, Iron Oil Operating, South Boxcar-Bakken, extend field boundaries; establish a 1280-acre unit; multiple wells on 28/33-148-102; McKenzie
27402, Iron Oil Operating, Little Tank-Bakken, establish a 1280-acre unit; multiple wells on 23/24-148-102; establish two overlapping 1920-acre units; multiple wells on 1/12/13-148-102; and, 2/11/14-148-102; McKenzie
27403, RimRock Oil & Gas, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, Dunn County:
i) establish an overlapping 640-acre spacing unit, section 34-148-93, one well on/near the center line of section 34, between the two existing 320-acre standup spacing units of teh proposed overlapping 640-acre unit;
ii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, sections 33/34-148-93, or in the alternative, establish an overlapping 640-acre unit, E/2 of section 33 and W/2 of section 34-148-93, one well
iii)  establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, 35-149-93; 2/11-147-93, six horizontal wells;
iv) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 35/36-148-93, W/2 of 1/12, and E/2 of 2/11-147-93, two horizontal wells, or alternative to this is also presented (see source)
27404, RimRock Oil & Gas, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn County:
i) establish an overlapping 1280-acre spacing unit comprised of 13-149-93; and 18-149-92, one well;
ii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 21/22-149-92, two wells; alternative presented, see source
iii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 27/28-149-92, two wells;
27405, RimROck Oil &Gas; Twin Buttes-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 14/23-147-92; one well; Dunn County
27406, Lincoln Energy Partners, Murphy Creek-Bakken, establish two 2560-acre units; 12 wells on each in 13/14/23/24-144-94; and, 3/4/9/10-143-94, Dunn County
27407, Lincoln Energy Partners, Saxon-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, 12 wells on 25/26/35/36-145-93; Dunn County
27408, Equinor, Stony Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 35/36-155-100, and 1/2-154-100, one well; Williams County
27409, SHD Oil & Gas, Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken, establish i) two overlapping 960-acre units, N/2 of sections 22/23/24 and the S/2 of sections 22/23/24-150-92, five wells; ii) one well on a existing 1920-acre unit, 22/23/24-150-91; and, iii) an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 15/16/17/18-150-91, seven wells, McLean and Cunn counties
27410, SHD Oil & Gas, Van Hook-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 640-acre unit, S/2 of sections 19/20-150-91, three wells; ii) establish an overlapping 960-acre unit, N/2 of sections 19/20/21-150-91, three wells; iii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 19/20-150-91, one well; iv) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, S/2 of sections 16/17/18 and N/2 of secton 19/20/21-150-91, one well; and, v) termination of a 3520-acre unit in Van Hook-Bakken; McLean, Dunn Conties
27411, CLR, Last Chance-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 27/28/33/34-154-100 and establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 4/5/6/7/8/9-153-100, two wells; Williams, McKenzie County
27412, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 28/29/32/33-154-100; two wells; Williams
27413, NDIC, suspend/revoke several permits issued to PetroShale, Dunn County
27414, RimRock, pooling, Mandaree-Bakken,
27415, RimRock, pooling, Mandaree-Bakken,
27416, RimRock, pooling, Mandaree-Bakken,
27417, Crescent Point Energy, pooling, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken,
27418, Crescent Point Eneryg, pooling, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken,
27419, Crescent Point Energy, pooling, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken,
27420, Crescent Point Energy, pooling, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken,
27421, WPX, pooling, Antelope-Sanish,
27422, WPX, pooling, Spotted Horn-Bakken,
27423, WPX, pooling, Mandaree-Bakken,
27424, CLR, pooling, Last Chance-Bakken,
27425, CLR, pooling, Catwalk and/or Last Chance-Bakken
27426, CLR, pooling, Last Chance-Bakken,
27427, CLR, pooling, Oakdale-Bakken,
27428, Nine Point Energy, pooling, Squires-Bakken,
27429, Nine Point Energy, pooling, Squires-Bakken,
27430, Iron Oil Operating, North Branch-Bakken, multiple wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units, 25/36-148-102; and 26/35-148-102; McKenzie County
27431, Iron Oil Operating, South Boxcar-Bakken, multiple wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, 27/34-148-102; McKenzie County
27432, Newfield, Siverston-Bakken, 14 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; 6/7-150-98; two wells on existing overlapping 2560-acre unit, 17/18/19/20-150-98; McKenzie
27433, Slawson, Big Bend, four wells on an existing 640-acre unit, 36-152-93; Mountrail
27434, SWD,
27435, SWD,
27436, SWD,
27437, SWD,
27438, SWD,

February 22, 2019, T+51 -- Charllie Pride Tonight

First things first: Charlie Pride documentary on PBS tonight, 8:00 p.m. Central Time, I believe, but check your local listings. Quick: how is Charlie Pride "connected" to Montana? I've probably seen Charlie Pride in concert more times than any other performer. The best concert ever for me? Charlie Rich. Long story. Liberace a close second. 

Is Anyone Goin' To San Antone? Charlie Pride

First things first: brewery to expand in Williston -- 
More than three years after Williams County opened a new building for its highway department, the owners of a Glasgow, Montana, brewery have made an offer to buy the old building. The Williams County Commission unanimously accepted a $700,000 bid from Ben and Connie Boreson, who own Busted Knuckle Brewery in Glasgow.
Williston: Boot Barn will open in the former Sears site. Sears has re-opened in the former Aaron's, a branch of NAPA Auto Parts. Aaron's is moving into the former Budget Home Furnishings building.

Shut off the lights on the way out: FT is quotes a hedge fund forecasting the demise of coal in Europe within three years. Hold that thought. We'll check back in 2025.

Surfeit of riches. For North Dakota, it simply doesn't quit. North Dakota overtakes Texas as the top lignite producer in 2018. Link here. So, #1 in certain grain products; #1 in honey; #1 in ICBMs (not sure if that still holds); #1 in lignite; #1 in common sense (at least in the western half of the state).

Spoiler alert: two bits, four bits, six bits, a dollar, everyone for reparations, stand up and holler. Pocahontas and Kamala Harris have both signed on. This is a deal killer. Even Barack Obama knew that. It's only slightly worse than telling coal country that "a lot of coal miners will be out of work when I'm elected president." Regardless of whether it's morally right or wrong, here are the demographics: African-Americans in the US: 15%, with projections to 18% in 2060. Hispanics in the US: 18% in 2016. Remember: all politics is local.
Of the 10 states with the largest Hispanic population, Georgia's Hispanic population has more than doubled since 2000.
California: African-American, around 6%; Latino, around 38% and growing;
They track everything: AOC -- "Occasional-Cortex" to the rest of us. But AOC: Amazon online customer.

Scott Adams asked this blogger to provide the five best arguments against AGW.

Coral reefs in west Hawaii are poised for recovery. Another "polar bear" story/study, I guess.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Nova Scotia, New Brunswick With No Indigenous Gas Supplies -- February 22, 2019

Making America great: Permian frack scene is going to get busier -- Rigzone --
  • Permian recently gained four frack spreads; now at 147
  • total number of frack spreads in the US: 452, up 11 week-over-week
  • frack spread is diverging from the rig count
  • [rig counts don't matter]
  • reported yesterday -- EIA expects Permian production to hit 4 million bopd
  • at 4 million bopd, more than four times the volume of daily output in 2017
  • almost equal the amount of crude oil the US is now exporting -- 3.7 million bopd
Keeping America great: global gas demand to grwo by 10 percent through 2030 -- Rigzone --
  • just ten percent growth will "require massive amounts of investment" -- Equinor
  • even if faux environmentalists enact "the two-degree climate target" projections for gas demand growth won't change much 
BP annual outlook: released

Whoo-hoo! Baby's got shoes! SRE increases dividend by 8.1%. Wow. From 89.5 cents/share to 96.75 cents/share. Forward yield: 3.29%. Better than what the German banks are paying.

And there's more: Enbridge has started service on Crossing Pipeline -- data points:
  • 165-mile pipeline
  • natural gas from Agua Dulce (sweet water) hub near Corpus Christi, TX, to folks on the south side of the Mexican border
  • $1.5 billion pipeline
  • 2.6 billion cfd of natural gas (40,000 boepd)
  • joint venture, TransCanada, Sempra Energy, completed the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline earlier this month (February, 2019)
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, February 22, 2019: 90 wells for the month; 193 wells for the quarter
  • 33204, SI/NC, Petroshale, Petroshale US 13H, Antelope-Sanish;
  • 30539, SI/NC, Slawson, Badger 1 SLH, Big Bend,
  • 22747, SI/NC, Enerplus, Arnica 149-93-21B-22H TF, Mandaree,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs66564339127

RBN Energy: last resort -- Canada's east coast Sable natural gas production is no more. Part 1. Archived.
After 19 years of natural gas production from the waters off the Canadian Maritime provinces, ExxonMobil, operator of the Sable Offshore Energy Project, shut down production there effective January 1, 2019. Though the closure had been announced well in advance, the end of SOEP output has left the two natural gas-consuming provinces in the region, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, without any indigenous gas supplies. It’s also made them fully reliant on either pipeline gas from the U.S. Northeast or imported volumes of LNG into the Canaport Energy terminal in New Brunswick. Will the shutdown put even more stress on the already overtaxed gas pipeline system in New England? And will it spur increased flows of Western Canadian gas into northern New England and the Maritimes? Today, in Part 1 of this blog series, we begin an examination of the potential impacts of SOEP’s demise on New England and Eastern Canadian gas markets.