Wednesday, February 22, 2017

DAPL Protest Camp Burning -- February 22, 2017

Link here if you can access it.

The Political Page, T+33 -- February 22, 2017

Worth repeating:


DAPL casino: everything you ever wanted to know about the two casinos at Standing Rock Reservation. Data points:
  • Standing Rock Reservation operates two casinos
    • Prairie Knights, near Cannon Ball, ND
    • Grand River Casino, near Mobridge, SD
  • Prairie Knights: played host to the DAPL protesters (is it "protesters" or "protestors"? -- see The Atlantic) -- bottom line: both are correct; one is preferred
  • Prairie Knights: annual intake, past two years
    • 2016: $8 million
    • 2015: $14 million
  • $6 million from #NoDAPL donations will be moved to reservation's general operating fund
Eviction deadline: 2:00 p.m. Central Time, February 22, 2017; deadline won't be extended by BLM; we'll wait for the presidential tweet.

San Jose flooding. First time in its history.

The Market And Energy Page, T+33; Photo Contest -- February 22, 2017

Bullish bear: Dennis Gartman -- bullish on oil for the first time in five years. Sees upside of $6 to $8; downside, $2 - $3. Driving factor: WTI held despite record builds this past two weeks. On CNBC at 8:40 a.m. Central Time, February 22, 2017.

Bakken CAPEX: Whiting Petroleum nearly doubles its capital spending budget.

Zeits: natural gas update, over at SeekingAlpha.

EVs: The Economist bullish on EVs now that diesel is a dud.  Why I love to blog. Two days ago I posted a note about "dieselgate" in Europe (that latter link). Now, last night, The Economist is absolutely giddy about how fast EV popularity will surge (the former link).
Improving technology and tightening regulations on emissions from ICEs is about to propel electric vehicles (EVs) from a niche to the mainstream. After more than a century of reliance on fossil fuels, however, the route from petrol power to volts will be a tough one for carmakers to navigate.
The change of gear is recent. One car in a hundred sold today is powered by electricity. The proportion of EVs on the world’s roads is still well below 1%. Most forecasters had reckoned that by 2025 that would rise to around 4%. Those estimates are undergoing a big overhaul as carmakers announce huge expansions in their production of EVs. Morgan Stanley, a bank, now says that by 2025 EV sales will hit 7m a year and make up 7% of vehicles on the road. Exane BNP Paribas, another bank, reckons that it could be more like 11% (see chart). But as carmakers plan for ever more battery power, even these figures could quickly seem too low.
Reality:

The photo below was taken in Bowman, ND, this past week. Fisker hybrid/EVs were being driven from California to Minnesota for "road testing." They require "special chargers." And without the ability to re-charge their $100,000+ bricks, they need to fill up "canisters" of gasoline (sic) for the next leg of their trip. Story here.


I assume the U-Haul trailer that will carry the canisters of "gasoline" is not pictured. A U-Haul trailer is most likely needed because of lack of cargo space in this non-SUV, or maybe they will simply place the canisters in the back seat. The displaced passengers can call Uber.

Tell me again that EV popularity will surge.

Active Rigs Steady At 42; Higher Than One Year Ago -- February 22, 2017

Active rigs:


2/22/201702/22/201602/22/201502/22/201402/22/2013
Active Rigs4239127187183

RBN Energy: new natural gas processing and fractionation capacity in Marcellus/Utica.

Scott Adams: persuasion advice for African-Americans.

Worth repeating:

What A Great Country -- Nothing About The Bakken -- An Amazon Vignette -- February 22, 2017

This has nothing to do with the Bakken. It's just an excuse to do something while listening to some great music.

Reason To Believe, Rod Stewart

What a great country.

Early this morning, about 8:30 a.m. my wife mentioned that she really liked one of the sauce pans she "earned" in some grocery story promotion and wished she had had enough "coupons" to get the larger saucepan.

On a lark, as they say, I went to Amazon, and ordered the complete pots and pans set. At checkout, Amazon.com said that "if I wanted I could have same day shipment" because I am a Prime Amazon member. I was curious if they could do it, so at 8:45 a.m. or thereabouts, I clicked on "free same day shipment."

Within an hour or two, I was told that the pots and pans had shipped and "guaranteed delivery" by 9:00 p.m. same day.

At 7:00 p.m. the order had not arrived.

We live in a gated community. That means the gate is closed and locked at 6:30 p.m. daily. I knew that if the courier -- Lone Star Shipping -- actually showed up after 6:30 p.m. the driver would not be able to access the gate and would simply state "tried to deliver" and then drive off, with delivery some time tomorrow.

I was curious if Lone Star would actually show up.

So, at 7:00 p.m. I sat on the curb outside the gate and waited. And waited. And waited.

I had my computer to keep me occupied so I didn't mind waiting. But by 8:30 p.m. I was pretty much ready to pack it in.

But with only 30 minutes to go, I thought I would hang out until the deadline, the guaranteed time that the product would be delivered.

At 8:50 p.m., under pitch black conditions, a small minivan with LSO (Lone Star) pulled up to the curb. A man -- somewhat confused -- got out when I approached the driver's side. I was thrilled. It was obvious it was the Amazon order, arriving ten minutes before the guaranteed time. Just like Cinderella and midnight, I guess.

It was interesting though how thorough the courier was verifying that I was truly the individual for whom the package was intended. I even described what I was waiting for ... and he exclaimed, "yes, the pots and pans." And then he asked to see my driver's license again (for the third time).

I asked him his name. Ola. It sounded Turkish. But he clearly was not Turkish. I asked him his nationality. Nigerian.

Wow, what a great guy. What a great experience.

I gave him a huge tip. Enough to pay for gas for a week.

What a great country.

The Whiskey Rebellion, The Bakken, And All That Jazz -- February 22, 2017

Tomorrow I may regret posting this but for now -- ahh, it's late at night -- who will see this?

This is really, really cool. Earlier today I was reading about the history of salt and re-read the history of the Whisky Rebellion. And then out of the blue, I get this note from a reader, with minimal editing:
Tomorrow, the 22nd of February is the deadline for the pipeline protestors to evacuate from their camps in North Dakota.  They've been trespassing on Federal land, managed by the Army Corps of Engineers since last fall. [The Obama Doctrine: let this play out.]

What started out as a/an euphoric community camp-out last August got overrun with a bunch of out-of-state rabble0rousers.  The Standing Rock Sioux tribe passed a unanimous resolution on January 20, 2017, asking that the camps be vacated and no new ones be started.

The state of ND is trying its damnedest to make this easy for the remaining folks to leave.  If they are without resources, ND will give them a hot meal, a hotel room, and a bus ticket home.

Whatever you see on the news tomorrow, please remember that even the tribe doesn't want these folks there, and that no part of the Dakota Access pipeline crosses that reservation

Also, dismiss the histrionics of reporters who are aghast at what they incorrectly allege to be an unprecedented "militarized force" against  Americans.  
Those bozos had to have missed even more school than I did.  
George Washington led 13,000 troops against his fellow countrymen in an effort to quash the Whiskey Rebellion, and of course Richard Daley summoned 24,000 National Guard to the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago - he thought tear gas smelled better than the 10,000 hippies who were protesting outside the Hilton.  
Anyway - blessings and safe passage to our law enforcement folks tomorrow and always. 
I am always impressed that my readers are so much more articulate than I am. 

Whiskey River, Willie Nelson and Asleep At The Wheel

Random Example Of A Re-Entered, Re-Completed Well, Targeting Same Formation -- February 22, 2017

This is really straight-forward.

First, the production profile:

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2016291424413785365926735267350
BAKKEN11-2016301535715489372629642296420
BAKKEN10-2016311550415314352541641416410
BAKKEN9-2016301469614187411826688266880
BAKKEN8-2016201117812114310622273222730
BAKKEN7-2016311916618639669836095360950
BAKKEN6-2016108807821229001521193365875
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20161000000
BAKKEN1-2016144020000
BAKKEN12-20151615931920612170717070
BAKKEN11-20152017681539432157415740
BAKKEN10-201593114672853563560
BAKKEN9-201520508480362509187322
BAKKEN8-201519574422540706463243
BAKKEN7-201522687951657880663217
BAKKEN6-201525576432645967538429
BAKKEN5-20153188496487615831130453
BAKKEN4-201520673564567740549191
BAKKEN3-20152687781485419151562353
BAKKEN2-2015281225147714261109986124
BAKKEN1-2015144184556824070407
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20144163002470247
BAKKEN10-2014122683552133703700
BAKKEN9-201430794782726672047
BAKKEN8-201431655810101751510
BAKKEN7-201431196517131419155315530
BAKKEN6-2014843735066325710247
BAKKEN5-201451590501221220
BAKKEN4-2014320820558229112290
BAKKEN3-201452372276044341726
BAKKEN2-2014112436262801080108
BAKKEN1-20143081112306341920192
BAKKEN12-2013318277794912640264
BAKKEN11-2013303455946022750275
BAKKEN10-201331191312624844430443
BAKKEN9-201330146121172034120412
BAKKEN8-201391084518110262159103
BAKKEN7-2013301768176029219282741654
BAKKEN6-20133070710742016891212477
BAKKEN5-20131392392073730
BAKKEN4-20133000087870
BAKKEN3-201331163001931930
BAKKEN2-2013280261206646640
BAKKEN1-20133199290752919511151799
BAKKEN12-2012318064803241138884253
BAKKEN11-2012281366945146725931822770
BAKKEN10-20121946092088111051004101
BAKKEN9-20123012291329197624031715688
BAKKEN8-201222125712971877431119822329
BAKKEN7-201218675407704236410331331
BAKKEN6-20122415281450151425551898656
BAKKEN5-20121210501348020321695337
BAKKEN4-20120000000
BAKKEN3-2012161294939977243810691369
BAKKEN2-2012720700407152254
BAKKEN1-201224302830390495104951
BAKKEN12-201111314401900190
BAKKEN11-2011296197790000
BAKKEN10-20110000000
BAKKEN9-201113152012631220402204

This well was originally completed/fracked in late 2011, with the following IP:
  • 20336, 1,162, middle Bakken, 20 stages, 2.1 million lbs, t8/11; cum --
The results were awful. Look at the production from late 2011 to early 2012 -- it almost appears as if the well had not been fracked.

In a sundry form received by the NDIC on October 9, 2015, BR requested permission to drill a new lateral from the same vertical hole. In that same sundry form, BR requested the name of the well be amended to "Sun Notch 43-32H-R." The "R" in this case, I assume was "re-drill."

The results, including a new IP from that new lateral:
  • 20336, 2,204, middle Bakken, 32 stages, 4.2 million lbs; t5/16; cum 140K 12/16;
Again, this well has implications for the Bakken as a whole.  

Although this is tagged as a re-entry and as a re-fracked well, technically it's simply drilling and completing a new lateral

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Random Look At An Interesting Well In A Most Interesting Oil Field In The Bakken -- February 21, 2017

Disclaimer: this was the last thing I did before turning in for the night. There may be all kinds of mistakes in this post. Tomorrow morning I may regret having posted it, but for now I will take the chance. We'll sort it out later. 

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographic and factual errors. After spending a lot of time on this, I hope I didn't make a really simple mistake. But I probably did. If I did, I will find it tomorrow. Whatever. I may be seeing things that don't exist. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I guess this is for my own use. Don't quote me on any of this. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Comment: for newbies, I think this well teaches us a lot about the Bakken. It's the kind of stuff analysts on Wall Street in NYC really don't have time for. 

Another comment: This is another one of those posts where I assume landmen and roughnecks will laugh at me. That's fine.

But I'm like a kid in a candy story when it comes to the Bakken. The Bakken never ceases to amaze me and I never get tired of looking at it or blogging about it. I do hit a wall once in awhile, but the "bad periods" only last a few days at most.

Again, for newbies, I have no background or training or experience in oil exploration and production. Nada. Nil. Zilch. I probably understand 3% of what I read about the Bakken.  But I've been blogging about the Bakken since 2007 and it never gets old.

I think operators are still learning about the Bakken. I think there are a lot of surprises left.

What is Love, A Night at The Roxbury
*********************************
So, let's get started.

Earlier tonight I was looking at a well with this production profile over the last few months:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201631100111008237712444123965260
BAKKEN11-2016301217812310526828301280920
BAKKEN10-2016271611115966779732522297912543
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20160000000

The full profile is here.

For one to really understand the post, it's important to look at the full profile.

The full profile is here. (All three links take you to the same "full profile" -- but I'm serious -- you have to spend some time with the "full profile" of this well), the index well:
  • 17400, 546, Petro-Hunt, Sherven Trust 27B-2-4H, Charlson, t3/09; cum 265K 12/16; about 1 million lbs first frack; second frack and second IP later.
Okay, so you've looked at the full profile.

I did not stumble upon this well by accident. There is a method to my madness. Be that as it may.

This is an important well. It tells us much about the future of the Bakken. It brings up many, many questions. And provides a bit of insight regarding the Bakken and a bit of insight regarding unconventional plays.

I don't understand the specifics, but the short story appears to be this:

This well was originally drilled as a middle Bakken well back in 2009. For a 2009 well, it was not bad, with an IP of 546 bbls of oil and an early production profile that looked like this:

BAKKEN6-20093066236580521837608166
BAKKEN5-20093186868668705107146049893
BAKKEN4-2009301241612334130015568407611282
BAKKEN3-20098331030591390162714100
BAKKEN2-20090000000
BAKKEN1-2009172540000
BAKKEN12-2008309489615185201635
BAKKEN11-20088123971118450635
BAKKEN10-20080000000
BAKKEN9-20080000000
BAKKEN8-20080000000
BAKKEN7-20080000000
BAKKEN6-20080000000
BAKKEN5-20080000000
BAKKEN4-20080000000

Once fracked, its first month of production was a pretty decent (for that time period) 13,416 bbls/month and then the typical dreaded Bakken decline, down to less than 9,000 bbls the very next month.

Then something happened. Maybe it was being re-worked, who knows, I couldn't interpret the report, but landmen and roughnecks will understand it, but the bottom line is this: the production profile looked like this:

BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20160000000
BAKKEN1-20160000700
BAKKEN12-20150000000
BAKKEN11-20150000000
BAKKEN10-20150000000
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-20150000000
BAKKEN7-20150000000
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-20150000000
BAKKEN3-20150000000

Even if you have no background in oil exploration, I think the data above is pretty clear cut. The hint: all the zeros. For newbies, this tells us that from March, 2015, to May, 2016, this well was shut-in, not producing a thing. If this was Apollo 13, this was the "Houston, we have a problem" moment.

Again, I don't understand the lingo, so I don't know the specific cause, but suffice it to say, somehow the well was screwed up.

But this is the Charlson field and Petro-Hunt had the lease and didn't want to lose a good well. The Charlson is a very, very good field. (Teague first identified the Charlson as a great Bakken oil field, and I owe him a lot for pointing that out.)

Petro-Hunt had a gazillion options, but it appears it came down to two options: 
a) re-drill the well, drilling a new lateral and targeting the same formation, the middle Bakken; or,
b) re-drill the well, drilling lower, and targeting the Three Forks.
They chose the latter.

But you know, you know what's really cool? They didn't do the simple thing, the obvious thing. They didn't target the first bench of the Three Forks; they targeted the second bench of the Three Forks.

So, now look at the events:

First, the index well, #17400, first drilled as a middle Bakken, initial production, after that frack back in 2009:

BAKKEN5-20093186868668705107146049893
BAKKEN4-2009301241612334130015568407611282
BAKKEN3-20098331030591390162714100

Then, the dreaded Bakken decline (see full profile, linked above) until March, 2014, when production for one month surged to almost 20,000 bbls from only 6,000 bbls the month before (and it was off-line for two days):


BAKKEN
4-2014304383423520158016770699
BAKKEN3-20143118919190525669272131488912107
BAKKEN2-201426566855742551735220035168

What could explain the jump from 6,000 bbls to 20,000 bbls in one month? I have no idea. LOL.

But it is interesting that a neighboring well was fracked just prior to that surge:

NDIC File No: 26205     API No: 33-053-05205-00-00    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 2/1/2014     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NENE 28-153-95     Latitude: 48.049781     Longitude: -102.893604
Current Operator: PETRO-HUNT, L.L.C.
Current Well Name: SHERVEN TRUST 153-95-27B-3H
Elevation(s): 2347 KB   2321 GR   2323 GL     Total Depth: 16331     Field: CHARLSON
Spud Date(s):  11/5/2013
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10560-16331     Comp: 2/1/2014     Status: AL     Date: 9/19/2014    
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 196095     Cum MCF Gas: 377642     Cum Water: 47771
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 2/2/2014     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1514     IP MCF: 2952     IP Water: 3814


See the graphic below to note where #26205 is in relationship to the index well.

So, we have an index well that jumps in production from 6,000 bbls to 20,000 bbls month-over-month with no obvious explanation but a neighboring well was fracked at just that time.

Sherlock had a way to explain this. 
Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.
****************************

Stick with me. It gets more complicated. Or at least more interesting.

Note that another neighboring well was fracked in February, 2015 (#27375) (see graphic below). One might expect something similar. But the index well was shut-in at that time, so we will never how interesting it might have been.

******************************

Fast forward to 2016. Petro-Hunt has this really cool well in a really cool field, the Charlson, but the well is messed up. Something screwed up the well. Petro-Hunt had a gazillion options, as noted above, but decided to re-drill the well and target the second bench of the Three Forks.

I find that really gutsy; really cool. Re-drilling the middle Bakken with a new lateral would have guaranteed another good well, but Petro-Hunt decided to test the second bench of the Three Forks.

Perhaps it was just something the CEO wanted to do, or perhaps the geologists saw stuff from the original work and were curious what the second bench might do. So, the re-drill targeting the second bench of the Three Forks got them this:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201631100111008237712444123965260
BAKKEN11-2016301217812310526828301280920
BAKKEN10-2016271611115966779732522297912543
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000

Not too shabby, as we used to say.  

******************************

I will stop here. There's enough stuff here to keep me busy for hours, asking questions, positing opinions, but we'll leave it at that.  

Here's the  graphic:

Full Production Profile To Be Used In Conjunction With Another Post -- February 21, 2017

This is the full production profile for Petro-Hunt well #17400. It is to be used in conjunction with another post. I placed the full production profile in this eparate post because the linked post was getting way too long.


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201631100111008237712444123965260
BAKKEN11-2016301217812310526828301280920
BAKKEN10-2016271611115966779732522297912543
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20160000000
BAKKEN1-20160000700
BAKKEN12-20150000000
BAKKEN11-20150000000
BAKKEN10-20150000000
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-20150000000
BAKKEN7-20150000000
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-20150000000
BAKKEN3-20150000000
BAKKEN2-201522517640000
BAKKEN1-2015110701311890182
BAKKEN12-2014172220217049
BAKKEN11-20142629323269712884597119
BAKKEN10-20143142793823121689048516170
BAKKEN9-201424455153371520744973020
BAKKEN8-2014172510159376834032960331
BAKKEN7-20142936273955101285968084316
BAKKEN6-201430401940451464764559681467
BAKKEN5-20143142844727155070466621208
BAKKEN4-2014304383423520158016770699
BAKKEN3-20143118919190525669272131488912107
BAKKEN2-201426566855742551735220035168
BAKKEN1-201422631359294135582015704083
BAKKEN12-20133114511342189251423040
BAKKEN11-20133014261575192248722770
BAKKEN10-20133114301333266261924020
BAKKEN9-2013301827205922633792880289
BAKKEN8-2013301011614871642138250
BAKKEN7-2013311322157418428742399259
BAKKEN6-2013301447159625528002391199
BAKKEN5-20133115031412252295327360
BAKKEN4-20133015321452182310228920
BAKKEN3-20133116741321217309128740
BAKKEN2-20132815231561260263824420
BAKKEN1-20133116631866170289326760
BAKKEN12-20123016271356239344932390
BAKKEN11-20122715601768226291627410
BAKKEN10-2012311710158333133502914219
BAKKEN9-201230164218131753415316045
BAKKEN8-201231175517532353760351330
BAKKEN7-2012311834190321836383256164
BAKKEN6-2012301825151231733782951217
BAKKEN5-20123116511847234331931020
BAKKEN4-2012301837168224132252674340
BAKKEN3-201231193519112463511320688
BAKKEN2-20122918691977232338031770
BAKKEN1-201231207025512083825357335
BAKKEN12-20113120601442210393022571456
BAKKEN11-2011302038217220339083408289
BAKKEN10-2011312136290621243623990155
BAKKEN9-20113020642019230471228661636
BAKKEN8-2011312206187727024021997188
BAKKEN7-2011312311217229065275803507
BAKKEN6-20113027332798353703827984030
BAKKEN5-20112925682439431399922301552
BAKKEN4-201130199221521632545225778
BAKKEN3-201131237422671753373310650
BAKKEN2-201128276626242543781348996
BAKKEN1-201131274928581413135289325
BAKKEN12-2010311707172193228320660
BAKKEN11-20103031643007329592757170
BAKKEN10-2010313513380731251634787159
BAKKEN9-2010301779121180180815980
BAKKEN8-2010312878309219639393367355
BAKKEN7-2010313424345035568456314314
BAKKEN6-20102943164471885791248172885
BAKKEN5-2010311810163566896661168
BAKKEN4-2010304180470438473606611539
BAKKEN3-2010292442191430931542812125
BAKKEN2-2010281885185717207118750
BAKKEN1-201031339933712074192391956
BAKKEN12-200931374736062064899467012
BAKKEN11-2009303808445822052514879162
BAKKEN10-2009314572427038763105594499
BAKKEN9-2009304980505141476416989442
BAKKEN8-200931584456685141134078483485
BAKKEN7-200931754777327881150177993485
BAKKEN6-20093066236580521837608166
BAKKEN5-20093186868668705107146049893
BAKKEN4-2009301241612334130015568407611282
BAKKEN3-20098331030591390162714100
BAKKEN2-20090000000
BAKKEN1-2009172540000
BAKKEN12-2008309489615185201635
BAKKEN11-20088123971118450635
BAKKEN10-20080000000
BAKKEN9-20080000000
BAKKEN8-20080000000
BAKKEN7-20080000000
BAKKEN6-20080000000
BAKKEN5-20080000000
BAKKEN4-20080000000