Monday, October 23, 2017

Update Of An MRO Moline Well, Recently Fracked In Reunion Bay -- October 22, 2017

Back on September 19, 2017, I suggested we might see some activity in the MRO Wadholm, Reunion Bay, area. In fact, MRO now reports the results of a recently fracked well in that area with a jump in production of a neighboring, older well.

Link here.

The well recently fracked:
  • 31476, 2,613, MRO, Moline 14-32H, Big Bend, 45 stages, 6.5 million lbs, t8/17; cum 46K 8/17; 

The Energy And Market Page, Page 2, T+275 -- October 23, 2017; Linn Energy To Sell Williston Acreage For $14,250/Acre

Linn to sell its Williston interest for $285 million -- Oil & Gas Journal; data points:
  • will sell non-operated Williston Basin interest to an undisclosed buyer for $285 million (to the best of my knowledge, all of Linn's acreage was non-operated by Linn; I've never seen a Linn permit)
  • part of Linn's plan to emerge from bankruptcy declared in February, 2017
  • package includes: 20,000 net acres in ND, SD, and MT
  • 2Q17 net production: 8,000 boe/d
  • $285 million / 20,000 net acres = $14,250 acres
  • to compare, also sold 163,000 acres in Wyoming for $200 million
  • Linn Energy has also exited California; south Texas; and sold some of its Permian interest
  • continues to market its remaining assets in the Permian along with its interests in Utah, and its mature waterfloods in Oklahoma
  • it looks like Linn is selling everything; what is it keeping? Linn Energy's new focus is on the Anadarko Basin's SCOOP-STACK play through its 50%-owned Roan Resources LLC, formed this summer alongside Citizen Energy II LLC 
  • over at "Bakken operators" this is all I had for Linn Energy:
    • LINN Energy
      • 4Q11: 17,000 acres
      • Entered the Bakken in February, 2011, acquiring CXO (Concho) Assets
      • 11,193 net acres, initially
      • 4Q11: 3,500 boepd
Markets: a stock picker's market --
  • all three indices fell (-0.23%; -0.4%; -0.64% -- inconsequential)
  • Tesla: continues to slide; fell over 2% today
  • NYSE new highs, a surprising 203, including -- BRK-B; Boeing; CAT; D.R. Horton; PFE; RDS-B; STE; Wal-Mart Stores;
  • new lows, 53
Younger Sister -- Many, Many Years Ago

Watching a Williston High School basketball game. Years later, she became a WHS cheerleader.

Active Rigs In ND Continue To Drop; Down To 53 -- October 23, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs533468194181

No new permits today.

Twelve permits renewed:
  • Zavanna (6): four Galloway permits and two George permits, all in Williams County
  • EOG (4): four Hawkeye permits, all in McKenzie County
  • BR: a Mancord permit in Dunn County
  • QEP: an MHA permit in Dunn County
And that was it.

Non-Bakken Headlines -- Links And Stories To Return To (Perhaps) -- October 23, 2017

The American farmThe family farm bulks up -- The WSJ.

Quantum computing. US likely to lag China for many years in quantum computing. China's surge would have occurred when President Obama was asleep at the wheel. One can go back, do a google search to see all the stories of China's quantum computing / communication advances in the past few years.
U.S. and other Western scientists voice awe, and even alarm, at China’s quickening advances and spending on quantum communications and computing, revolutionary technologies that could give a huge military and commercial advantage to the nation that conquers them.
The concerns echo — although to a lesser degree — the shock in the West six decades ago when the Soviets launched the Sputnik satellite, sparking a space race.
In quick succession, China in recent months has utilized a quantum satellite to transmit ultra-secure data, inaugurated a 1,243-mile quantum link between Shanghai and Beijing, and announced a $10 billion quantum computing center.
GE. Dow 30 components: include GE. GE continues to slip.  (Currently down 6.6% at 2:12 p.m. Central Time):
The stock dropped 5.4% in morning trading to about $22.50 a share, on pace for its largest drop in more than six years. It more than reversed a 1.1% rise on Friday after the quarterly results. The firm on Friday morning slashed its 2017 outlook and reported per-share profits that missed analyst expectations, which the company’s new chief executive, John Flannery, called “unacceptable.”
Equity analysts, typically an optimistic bunch, turned more cautious after the earnings report, collectively cutting their average price target to $26 a share Monday. That’s above where the stock is currently trading, but marks the lowest average price target since mid 2013, according to FactSet’s monthly data.
More GE: this time long-term care deficiencies:
Worries about the health of the long-term-care insurance industry have nettled investors for years. General Electric Co.’s comments show the problem isn’t going away soon.
The Boston company on Friday cut its earnings forecast for the year, citing poor results at units including its power division. The company also said results could be hit by a reassessment of an insurance unit’s prospects—a remark that came as a surprise to some, given that GE years ago spun out a business closely identified with long-term care, now known as Genworth Financial Inc.
A GE executive on the company’s conference call Friday morning said the firm has actuaries combing through its long-term-care insurance reserves in “a very complex exercise” to figure out if they are deficient.
Uber-alles: Ill-time Uber investment roils a giant Saudi fund. I wondered when we would start seeing these stories. Of course I can't imagine Saudi Arabia investors being too upset with the alleged Uber culture alleged to be causing all the alleged Uber problems. Just saying. After all, women aren't allowed to drive in Saudi Arabia, that will (?) change in 2018. In fact some say the women-driving issue was one reason Saudi bought into Uber in the first place. Those dots I cannot connect.

Medicine. Having just completed Jonathan Eig's The Birth of the Pill, I found this article on Allergan's new treatment for fibroids to be very, very interesting. In a different life, a long, long time ago and in a far away land, fibroids were one of the biggest issues I had to contend with, but that story has long been consigned to the dustbin of history.

The New Yorker. So, now we get to this week's issue of The New Yorker: remarkably the cover is not "about" President Trump (October 23, 2017). And that is very, very surprising considering the issue bills itself as "The Money Issue." Did The New York miss an opportunity or are they getting the message from folks like me (I doubt it). Every time they send me a request to re-subscribe, I write them a note telling them that The New Yorker a) suffers from Trump derangement syndrome; b) has become nothing but a pro-Hillary magazine; and, c) has too many political articles. Just as I used to watch late-night talk television to relax and not listen to politics, I used to read The New Yorker to learn about things I might not read elsewhere, but late-night talk television is all politics -- at least at the time I quit watching over a year ago; and The New Yorker is ... well, I'm repeating myself.

And there is it, of the four articles (not counting the short-story fiction article) one is "The President Pence Delusion." A second is on Harvey Weinstein (Hollywood, not NYC, mogul, The New Yorker quickly points out). Articles three and four ("Getting By in NYC" and "Can Humans Adapt To A Robot Workforce?") do not interest me. Regarding the four: we've had a robotic workforce for quite some time (visit Detroit).

And, so mostly the cartoons. Although I am curious about the robot story.

Later: why do I bother?

Read more here:

Making America Great Again -- It Never Gets Old -- New Energy Record -- Crude Oil Production Highest In 44 Years -- T+275, October 23, 2017

The Red Queen has not fallen off her treadmill.

US petroleum product demand hits 10-year September peak -- API -- Oil & Gas Journal, data points:
  • US petroleum product demand averaged more than 20.2 million b/d in September, 2017
  • 2.4% more than a year earlier
  • gasoline deliveries fell 0.8% from a year earlier to an average 9.4 million b/d -- still, second-highest for the month on record
  • distillate fuel deliveries: averaged 4 million b/d; up 3.4% from a year earlier
  • crude oil production: robust; highest September in 47 years, since 1970; highest production level for any month in 29 months, since April, 2015
  • crude oil production: first nine months of 2017 -- averaged 9.1 million b/d; 2.9% more year-to-year and the second highest for the period in 44 years, since 1973
I do believe "Peak Oil" theory is pretty much in shambles.

West Coast Mexican Terminals Might Ship US LNG

From Bloomberg, another big story:
Since the first shale gas export terminal opened in Louisiana last year, America’s drillers have seen at least 75 cargoes of their fuel sail through the Panama Canal bound for markets in Asia.
Now they’re looking for a cheaper and quicker route. And they’ve turned to Mexico for help.
Aldo Flores, Mexico’s deputy energy secretary, said Thursday that the government’s in talks with shale drillers in West Texas about a potential pipeline that would send their gas straight to Mexico’s west coast, where it could then be liquefied and shipped overseas.
Such a pipeline could eliminate the need for gas tankers to navigate the Panama Canal and hand the U.S. another outlet for the bounty of gas that President Donald Trump has vowed to “unleash” upon the world.
It comes as at least one would-be U.S. gas exporter, Sempra LNG & Midstream, voices concerns about delays at the canal that threaten to cost gas traders thousands of dollars a day.
Conrad Hilton Quiz

Time to answer the quiz posted earlier:

1a. Who "discovered" Conrad Hilton's most famous granddaughter?  Most famous granddaughter, Paris Hilton, discovered by Donald Trump 1b. Before she was discovered, what did she want to be when she "grew up"? veterinarian (page 427)
2. Whom was Barron named after? Yes, that Barron. Conrad's second son, William Barron, (p. 414) Barron was his first wife's maiden name.
3. Who was Conrad Hilton's second wife? Zsa Zsa Gabor; his first wife, Mary Adelaide Barron, her fling with an athletic coach led to their divorce
4. The Melba was one of Conrad Hilton's very first hotels; in what city was it located? Ft Worth, TX
5. What hotel was the first hotel that Conrad Hilton built from the ground up? Dallas Hilton
6. Where did Conrad Hilton serve in WWI? Paris 6b. In what capacity? Quartermaster 6c. In what service and at what rank? US Army, 2nd Lt
7a. In what country was Conrad Hilton's dad born? Norway 7b. What was his Dad's middle name?  Halvorsen 7c. In what month was Conrad Hilton's father born? August 7d. In what state was Conrad Hilton born? (this is a trick question) Conrad was not born in any US state; he was born in San Antonio, Territory of New Mexico
8. Hilton Conrad's first child was a son, Conrad Nicholson, Jr. Whom did "Nicky" marry? his first wife was Elizabeth Taylor (yes, that Elizabeth Taylor; the marriage lasted from 1950 - 1951; second marriage to Patricia (Trish) McClintock
9. What major airline bought Hilton International in 1967? TWA
10. What was the first company registered with the New York Stock Exchange to operate gambling facilities (in Nevada). Hilton, 1970, purchased the Flamingo Hoel and the Las Vegas International, later named the Las Vegas Hilton

The Politcal Page, T+275 -- October 23, 2017

US murder rate, government statistics, ranking among cities: Chicago is not #1 (most recent data, 2015). St Louis, MO, has that distinction. Most recent data, 2015. Interestingly, the Forbes list for 2015 varies significantly. Perhaps different analysts use a different definition for "murder."
1. St Louis, MO (rising since 2013)
2. Baltimore, MD (surge in 2015)
3. Detroit, MI (flat)
4. New Orleans, LA (falling since 2007, but slight rise recently)
5. Birmingham, AL (surged in 2015)
6. Jackson, MS (flat)
7. Baton Rouge, LA (slight rise recently)
8. Hartford, CT (surged in 2015)
9. Salinas, CA (surged in 2015)
10. Milwaukee, WI
13. Savannah, GA (and surging in 2015)
19. Atlanta, GA
25. Chicago, IL (relatively flat)
However, a non-government agency has this list for 2017:
1. East St Louis, IL (see above)
2. Chester, PA (interesting; I don't know where Chester is but I can guess)
3. Gary, IN
4. St Louis, MO (see above)
5. Baltimore, MD
6. Petersburg, VA
7. Flint, MI
8. Detroit, MI
9. New Orleans, LA
10. Camden, NJ
23. Hartford, CT
25. Salinas, CA
28. East Chicago, IN
30. Washington, DC

Williston Retail Stores Opening; New Bank Location -- October 23, 2017

From The Williston Wire:
  • new home décor and interior design store has opened its doors in Williston; Elite Designz is located at 34 24th Street West, in the former Curves building
  • Style Uncorked: previously Mode in Williston
  • First National Bank has a new trust department building, 310 1st Avenue East
Highway Update

Highway project almost complete; data points --
  • US 2 & 85, "old" bypass, west of "old" bypass, almost complete
  • $14.5 million project
  • intersection where 27th Avenue Northwest meets the highway will soon be in place
  • a traffic signal will replace a stop sign at the diagonal Second Street West intersection

Monday, October 23, 2017 -- HAL Has Huge Quarter

Worth re-posting:
HAL. Halliburton profit tops estimates on strong North America demand. Reuters even used the word "surged" -- a word we don't often see these days in the oil sector except when combined with production, such as "production surged." Data points:
  • revenue surges 91%
  • revenue from North America at $3.16 billion
  • total revenue rose 42% to $5.44 billion
  • profit: 42 cents a share vs 1 cent per share a year earlier
  • profit: $365 million most recent quarter vs $6 million one year earlier
  • analysts forecast: 37 cents/share
#1 item on my agenda this week: COP earnings. Preview over at SeekingAlpha. At that article, the Bakken is mentioned often. If the US majors are making profits at $50 oil, Saudi Arabia is in deep trouble.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs543468194181

RBN Energy: US gas market will increasingly depend on exports to balance.
With the addition of new natural gas pipeline capacity, and crude oil and natural gas prices stabilizing near $50/bbl and $3/MMBtu, respectively, Lower-48 natural gas production this year is on the rise again and expected to increase by another 18 Bcf/d over the next several years.
Gas demand is growing too, but a big chunk of the incremental demand will come not from domestic consumption, but from exports via pipeline deliveries to Mexico and to overseas markets in the form of LNG.
Both of these outlets require substantial infrastructure development and will take time to ramp up. Moreover, much of this new demand will be concentrated in one geographic area — along the Gulf Coast. In addition to the Marcellus/Utica Shale region, several other supply basins are growing too and will compete for this new demand. How will these dynamics affect the gas market balance over the next few years? Will demand come on fast enough, and will all that new supply be able to find its way to the Gulf Coast? Or, is the market setting itself up for more transportation constraints? In today’s blog, we look at how supply and demand shifts will shape the gas market balance over the next several years.
This is Part 3 of a series laying out our five-year outlook for the U.S. natural gas supply and demand balance. In Part 1, we started with our outlook for the biggest driver of supply — production. After pulling back in 2016, Lower-48 natural gas production is clearly in growth mode again this year, not only from the Marcellus/Utica, but also from associated gas volumes in the crude-focused Permian Basin, and Oklahoma’s South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (SCOOP) and Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian Kingfisher (STACK) plays.
Notably, this is happening at $50/bbl crude — a price level that a few years ago had producers tightening their belts and laying down rigs. But, today, ongoing drilling efficiency improvements have made it possible for producers to grow at prices that are $30 to $60/bbl lower than where they were prior to the oil price crash of 2014.
In Part 2, we quantified the other side of the equation — growing sources of demand, primarily exports. The biggest growth will be from outside the U.S., both from LNG exports as well as pipeline deliveries to Mexico from Texas. Based on the construction and completion schedules for the first wave of liquefaction projects underway along the Gulf and East coasts, we expect U.S. export capacity to reach nearly 11 Bcf/d by the end of 2019. At 85% to 90% utilization, that translates to just under 10 Bcf/d of LNG moving out of the U.S. in that timeframe. Then there are the exports to Mexico. Pipeline delivery capacity to the border has increased to about 9.0 Bcf/d in the past couple of years and will increase by another 3.5 Bcf/d by 2022. But deliveries are likely to be slower to follow, as shippers await takeaway and gas-fired power generation capacity growth across the border. Nevertheless, we expect cross-border flows to rise to as much as 8.0 Bcf/d in 2022. In terms of U.S. domestic consumption, the biggest growth area is gas-fired power generation demand, which we expect to average more than 28 Bcf/d by 2022. That is almost 3.0 Bcf/d higher than this year, but only 1.0 Bcf/d higher than 2016.

The Energy And Market Page (And A Little Bit Of Snarky Politics), T+275 -- October 23, 2017

HAL. Halliburton profit tops estimates on strong North America demand. Reuters even used the word "surged" -- a word we don't often see these days in the oil sector except when combined with production, such as "production surged." Data points:
  • revenue surges 91%
  • revenue from North America at $3.16 billion
  • total revenue rose 42% to $5.44 billion
  • profit: 42 cents a share vs 1 cent per share a year earlier
  • profit: $365 million most recent quarter vs $6 million one year earlier
  • analysts forecast: 37 cents/share
Futures: green.

WTI: $52.13

$60 oil? Not until 2019, at the earliest -- CNBC. Can Saudi Arabia hold on that long? If Prince Alwaleed wants to save the Saudi Aramco IPO, the first thing he needs to do is get rid of the keffiyeh. In an interview this morning with an American "journalist," Prince Alwaleed, for some inexplicable reason wearing his keffiyeh, something he doesn't do when walking the streets of London. To most/many/some Americans, the keffiyeh simply reminds them that a) Saudi Arabia is still in the Middle Ages; and, b) it was Saudi-financed terrorists that brought down the towers on 9/11. I wonder if Saudi would have let the American journalist wear a kippah? Just saying.

Collision course: Canadian hydroelectricity vs off-shore wind farms. 
In boreal forests above the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Hydro-Quebec is building a series of dams that will generate enough electricity for more than one million homes. The $5.2 billion project on the Romaine River is part of a sweeping expansion the government-owned utility began in 2007, with the intention of selling power to the U.S. where nuclear reactors are closing.
It’s not clear Americans will buy. While New York and Massachusetts want to avoid fossil fuels when they replace the soon-to-be-shuttered Indian Point and Pilgrim nuclear plants, wind and solar developers are also jockeying for the job.
Merckel: world's #1 eco-vandal --
The [London] Guardan, September 19, 2017
... perhaps the most embarrassing is Germany’s shocking failure, despite investing hundreds of billions of euros, to decarbonise its electricity system. While greenhouse gas emissions in other European nations have fallen sharply, in Germany they have plateaued.
The reason is, once more, Merkel’s surrender to industrial lobbyists. Her office has repeatedly blocked the environment ministry’s efforts to set a deadline for an end to coal power. Coal, especially lignite, which vies with Canadian tar sands for the title of the world’s dirtiest fuel, still supplies 40% of Germany’s electricity. Because Merkel refuses to restrict its use, the peculiar impact of Germany’s Energiewende programme has been to cut the price of electricity, stimulating a switch from natural gas to lignite, which is cheaper. (In Germany they call this the Energiewende paradox). But Merkel doesn’t seem to care. She has announced that “coal will remain a pillar of German energy supply for a prolonged time span”.
National Review, September 24, 2017
Merkel’s energy policy was based upon a combination of nuclear power and “renewables” in order to close down power stations dependent on fossil fuels, and help Germany lead the European Union and the world toward a carbon-free future.
She had been a strong defender of nuclear energy against SPD chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s attempts to phase it out. Within a few weeks of the Japanese nuclear disaster at Fukushima, though, she panicked, reversed herself, and closed down Germany’s entire nuclear program.
Her Energiewende since then has led to a massive increase in power bills for consumers and industry, the movement abroad of German companies heavily reliant on energy, and, more recently, a phasing out of the phasing out of coal-fired power stations. Merkel and the nuclear companies are still haggling over how much the German government will pay for the estimated €23 billion cost of shutting down their plants. Meanwhile, no one believes that Germany and Europe will meet their official goal of reducing carbon emissions 80-95 percent from their 1990 levels by the year 2050.
InvesterVillage, October 22, 2017: most countries ignoring Paris accord
According to the analyst, popular opinion against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “Energiewende” (energy transition) policies, which had doubled electricity prices, played no small part in Merkel’s terrible showing in last month’s national elections.
Costs of the ill-fated Energiewende now total some €650 billion, a bill that weighs heavily on the shoulders of German taxpayers.
Late last year, to their national embarrassment, the Germans had to be bailed out of a small energy crisis by Poland when the wind failed to blow for several days and a thick fog surrounded many parts of Germany, driving the output from renewables to just 4 percent of total demand. It was coal-fueled Poland that had to rescue Germany from its self-induced energy crisis.
“Merkel may now be unable to form a government without the support of the libertarian Free Democratic Party, which demands an end to renewables subsidies,” Solomon notes.

Sunday, October 22, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+274 -- October 22, 2017

Futures mean squat, but all major indices show GREEN.

WTI: $52.15.

Bankruptcy: Hartford City workers getting nervous
Public-sector workers in cash-strapped Hartford, Conn., are on edge as city officials have said the state capital could seek authority to file for bankruptcy as early as November.
State lawmakers, who are confronting their own two-year deficit of $3.5 billion, will have a big say in how that plays out. Legislative leaders say they reached a tentative state budget agreement that would give Hartford additional aid, and they expect to approve it this week.
But after a series of false starts in the budgeting process, some are still uneasy.
“It’s nerve-racking because obviously the clock is ticking,” said Larry Dorman, a spokesman for Afscme Local 1716, which represents about 400 city employees, including those in the departments of public works, sanitation and parks. “When you’ve seen bankruptcy in other cities, it’s always taken the biggest toll on the workers. That’s neither right nor fair.”
Life's not fair. 

The Katie Ledecky Page

From today: Pac-12 won.
One day after turning in a standout performance in the 100 Fly, Grover took on a talented 200 Free field. The Atlanta native posted a sixth-place finish, checking in with a time of 1:46.88. The race was a tight one, as the veteran's effort placed her just over five seconds back of the winner, Katie Ledecky of Stanford.
Liu finished sixth in the 200 IM, notching a time of 2:00.54. Ella Eastin of Stanford and Kathleen Baker of California tied for first just over seven seconds ahead at 1:53.24.
The Pac-12 took a 302.5-276.5 after the men's 200 IM—the last individual event of the weekend. Needing 306.5 to secure the overall victory, the Pac-12 "A" team of Louise Hansson, Janet Hu, Ledecky and Abbey Weitzel made it official with a first-place time of 3:11.28.
From yesterday:
The Pac-12 Conference – which has six-time Olympic medalist Katie Ledecky on its side – scored 155 points Saturday to lead Team USA by 11 points after the first day of the 2017 USA Swimming College Challenge in Los Angeles.
The second-ever exhibition continues at 11 a.m. PT on Sunday in the Uytengsu Aquatics Center on the Southern Cal campus. With 613 points up for grabs throughout the competition, the first team to score 306.5 points will be named the winner. The meet features 29 members of the USA Swimming national team facing Pac-12 all-stars.
Ledecky, a sophomore at Stanford and a four-time gold medalist at the Olympic Games Rio 2016, won the women’s 500-meter freestyle for the Pac-12, finishing in 4:28.75. She also helped the Pac-12 win the women’s 800 freestyle relay.
Michael Phelps says of Katie Ledecky: she has a quality he rarely sees in swimmers.
Michael Phelps, the most decorated Olympian in history and the face of US Swimming since 2004, has seen Ledecky train and compete for years and said she is in a class of her own.
"She's someone that's very goal-oriented," Phelps said while speaking to Business Insider. "When she writes a time down or she writes a major milestone down, she's gonna do whatever she can to make sure that happens. I've only seen that really a couple times in the sport. So it's a true treat for me to be able to see her kind of truly coming up in the sport like she is."
After a strong World Championships performance and freshman year at Stanford,
Ledecky is poised to have a strong showing at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The 2020 Olympics will now include the 1,500-meter freestyle for the first time, a race in which Ledecky currently holds the world record. Phelps said with such a busy slate, Ledecky could have the chance to win seven or eight medals.