Friday, October 30, 2020

Re-Posting: Who Controls The Permian? October 30, 2020

Who controls the Permian? Rigzone

There’s been an ongoing pendulum swing between majors and independents as the controlling group of the Permian basin’s destiny for many years, but who controls the region now?

Well, according to a new Wood Mackenzie (Woodmac) editorial from the company’s Americas upstream oil and gas research director Benjamin Shattuck, new deals like the Pioneer and Parsley combination are swinging the pendulum from the majors back to the independents “fast”.

“The combined Pioneer/Parsley entity holds almost a million acres in the heart of the Midland Basin,” Shattuck stated in the editorial, which was posted on Woodmac’s website on Tuesday.

“Pioneer is once again a Permian heavyweight. The combined company will produce more regionally than ConocoPhillips and Concho, more than ExxonMobil, and more than Occidental and Anadarko. Considering the massive spending pullbacks of Chevron and ExxonMobil earlier this year, Permian forecasters need to recalibrate their models back to Pioneer’s plans,” Shattuck added in the editorial.

“Even with a lower reinvestment rate than before the deal and the variable dividend not coming into play until 2022, Pioneer will still grow five percent next year,” Shattuck went on to state.

Having read that, now look at COP

Train Wreck In Slow Motion -- The Sports Page -- October 30, 2020

MLB: MLB braces for record 40% drop in revenue in 2020 - 2021 season. LeBron may sit out first few weeks (months?). ZeroHedge

NFL: watching a train crash in slow motion. Ratings plunge 35% this past Sunday; continues the trend in all major sports. 

Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2020/10/28/ratings-crash-35-for-sunday-night-football-lowest-week-7-number-since-2011/.


I watch sports talk television in the morning -- "Get Up" and "Final Take" -- and "Pardon the Interruption" in the afternoon -- not once have I heard anyone mention this train wreck. In fact, the commentators continue to show support for the movement. 

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Hold My Beer

From a reader:



Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- Big Story: It's Coming Down To Saudi Arabis Vs Iraq -- October 30, 2020

Who controls the Permian? Rigzone

There’s been an ongoing pendulum swing between majors and independents as the controlling group of the Permian basin’s destiny for many years, but who controls the region now?

Well, according to a new Wood Mackenzie (Woodmac) editorial from the company’s Americas upstream oil and gas research director Benjamin Shattuck, new deals like the Pioneer and Parsley combination are swinging the pendulum from the majors back to the independents “fast”.

“The combined Pioneer/Parsley entity holds almost a million acres in the heart of the Midland Basin,” Shattuck stated in the editorial, which was posted on Woodmac’s website on Tuesday.

“Pioneer is once again a Permian heavyweight. The combined company will produce more regionally than ConocoPhillips and Concho, more than ExxonMobil, and more than Occidental and Anadarko. Considering the massive spending pullbacks of Chevron and ExxonMobil earlier this year, Permian forecasters need to recalibrate their models back to Pioneer’s plans,” Shattuck added in the editorial.

“Even with a lower reinvestment rate than before the deal and the variable dividend not coming into play until 2022, Pioneer will still grow five percent next year,” Shattuck went on to state.

Vietnamese LNG. Will post link from yesterday -- the story continues.

ExxonMobil Hai Phong Energy Pte Ltd (EMPHE), Hai Phong People’s Committee and Japan power generation firm JERA have signed a memorandum of understanding to work together on a potential integrated LNG-to-power project, JERA reported Wednesday.

The MOU promotes preliminary market development discussions among ExxonMobil, Hai Phong city government and JERA for a gas-fired power plant and LNG import terminal in the northeastern Vietnam port city.

“Hai Phong is industrializing at a fast pace, with an annual growth rate of over 20 percent,” remarked Nguyen Van Tung, chairman of the Hai Phong People’s Committee. “Hai Phong City is pleased to collaborate with ExxonMobil and JERA to provide a clean energy resource for Vietnam in Hai Phong City.”

US durable-goods: orders rose for fifth month in September, 2020. Link here.

Orders for long-lasting factory goods increased for the fifth consecutive month in September, 2020, the latest sign manufacturing companies are rebounding from supply-chain disruptions and shutdowns related to the coronavirus pandemic. 
New orders for durable goods—products designed to last at least three years—rose 1.9% in September compared with August, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. 
A closely watched proxy for business investment—new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—increased by 1% last month. 
The measure had recovered all of its pandemic-related losses by August, suggesting that businesses have ramped up capacity in anticipation of growing demand. 
“The economic recovery isn’t entirely dependent on consumers, with business-equipment investment recording a swift bounce back to prepandemic levels,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Saudi Arabia in deep doo-doo:


Iraq: crumbling economy becomes a threat to OPEC+ production cuts.

Iraq may be the world's third-biggest oil exporter, but its economy is cratering after the coronavirus pandemic sapped global demand for energy and caused prices to collapse. 
The state's finances are so dire it can't pay teachers and civil servants on time, threatening a repeat of the upheaval that last year brought down the government and saw hundreds of protesters killed. 
That's created a dilemma for 46-year-old Abdul Jabbar, a chemical engineer and career oil man who's now caught between the demands of an angry population and the pledges made to allies in OPEC. 
The group of oil producers is trying to bolster a fragile market by reining in supply and it needs major producers like Iraq to toe the line. For Iraq, restraining supply carries a massive economic and political cost. But breaking ranks is risky too: it could mean lower prices for everyone. 
Some Iraqis want the government to put them first by simply pumping more oil, a move that could unravel the finely calibrated output agreement; if a producer as significant as Iraq flouts the pact, there'd be little to stop smaller ones doing the same.

Exxon: to slash up to 15% of global workforce; cuts include 1,900 jobs in US. Link here.  

IHOP: closing nearly 100 "underperforming" locations amid the pandemic. Link here.

Jobless claims, from yesterday, October 29, 2020: pandemic emergency jobless claims soar to record high. Link here.

Apple -- 4Q20 -- Quarter Ending September, 2020

Apple reports 4Q20 results: $12.7 billion on $64.7 billion revenue.

For the quarter, Apple posted revenue of $64.7 billion and net quarterly profit of $12.7 billion, or $0.73 per diluted share, compared to revenue of $64.0 billion and net quarterly profit of $13.7 billion, or $0.76 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Apple set a new record for September quarter revenue, as well as all-time quarterly records for Services and Mac revenue.

Early sales "look good": Tim Cook. 

Apple's services revenue hits new all-time high: $14.5 billion in quarter before the holiday quarter. 

Another all-time record: Apple's wearables, home and accessories revenue -- $7.9 billion. 

Apple can't keep up with demand: working hard on supply constraints -- Tim Cook.

The desktop Mac is dead. Long live the desktop Mac. All-time record. 

ND Back At #1; Followed By The Usual Suspects -- Alaska, #6; USA, #7 -- October 30, 2020

Link here.  Updated early this morning, Halloween eve, 6:40 a.m. North Dakota back in top position. 


Other related news
:

  • Chinese flu outbreak in Wisconsin pushed college football toward the edge; WSJ link;
  • tsunami of empty college dorms risks student housing market implosion; ZeroHedge
  • big tech reaps gains as the Chinese flu pandemic shifts demand; it's all about the on-line experience; WSJ link;
  • Starbucks says customers are starting to come back; WSJ link;

OPEC Basket Plunges; Another Active Rig In The Bakken; Hess Reports Another Nice Well -- October 30, 2020

OPEC basket, link here: deep doo-doo.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: CLR adds a third rig.

$35.63
10/30/202010/30/201910/30/201810/30/201710/30/2016
Active Rigs1560685234

One well coming off the confidential list today --

Friday, October 30, 2020: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 689 for the year

  • 36796, drl/A, Hess, EN-Ruland-LE-156-94-3328H-1, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 92K 9/20;

RBN Energy: rising LNG exports from Texas reshape Louisiana gas flows, part 2. Archived.

The natural-gas market disruptions hitting the Texas-Louisiana coast so far in 2020 — a pandemic, the collapse of the LNG export market, a rare hiccup in Permian gas production, and multiple hurricanes —threw a big wrench into market expectations. Everything had been moving along pretty smoothly since mid-2016, when the first of a series of new liquefaction trains came online at Sabine Pass LNG. 
As new LNG export capacity started up at Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, and Freeport, so did relatively steady, predictable growth in feedgas demand. 
Then came this crazy, unforgettable year. Still more liquefaction capacity started up, but LNG export volumes plummeted, mostly due to very weak export economics. Recently, LNG exports have been picking up and, whenever hurricanes stop pounding the Gulf Coast, the U.S. will likely finally experience the full impact of all 9.15 Bcf/d of export capacity operating at full strength, requiring nearly 10 Bcf/d of feedgas across the U.S, almost 9 Bcf/d of which is located in Texas and Louisiana. Gas flow patterns across Louisiana’s dense network of pipelines already are shifting in response to the incremental demand and are signaling increased supply competition along the Gulf Coast this winter. Today, we continue our series discussing the changing flow patterns along the U.S. Gulf Coast, this time providing an overview of the main drivers of those shifts to date, including LNG feedgas demand and Northeast inflows.

Off The Net For The Night -- Listening To Jerry Jeff Walker -- Good Luck To All -- See You In A Few Hours -- October 30, 2020

On YouTube, JJW, one hour and thirty minutes -- "The One and Only." I was watching Bruce Springsteen's "Letter to You" on Apple TV+ earlier this evening. I had to turn it off after about twenty minutes. I couldn't connect (emotionally ... the wi-fi worked fine). His E-Street Band might be called a "super-band" with so many incredible artists backing up Springsteen.

Jerry Jeff Walker: All by himself and a guitar on stage. And the music is incredible for late night / early morning listening. 

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Back to Apple

Link here

"....hugely outpacing sales one year earlier." 

Hugely.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

COP: Annual Report, 2019 -- Lower 48

Things are getting exciting.  There's a lot on everyone's plate.

Next week we will know if COP will continue to invest in the North Slope, Alaska. Perhaps. See this post.  

Curious.

For COP: the North Slope generated one-fourth of COP's worldwide crude production:

  • three legacy fields
  • 218K boepd in 2019

How does that compare to the Lower 48?

If I'm reading the graphic correctly, for COP, liquids from the Bakken, averaged:

  • 82,000 bbls/day

Compare with:

  • Eagle Ford: 174,000
  • Permian: 60,000 

I may be reading the graphic incorrectly.  

Concho Resources is producing about 200,000 bopd. Link here.

Of the fourteen or so active rigs in North Dakota, two of them are operated by BR. And that's all that BR needs to maintain production at current levels there. 

COP very recently announced that it was maintaining its dividend (actually increasing it by one penny). Link here for dividend history

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Earnings report for COP round-up:

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Pancake Thursday

Closer Look At BR's 2020 Permits In Section 6-149-96, Pershing Oil Field -- October 29, 2020

Burlington Resources, subsidiary of COP:

  • 2020, through October 28, 2020: BR with 92 new permits in North Dakota;
    • CY2019: BR with 91 oil and gas permits in North Dakota
  • of those 92 new permits, 29 were in Pershing oil field, most of them in the past few weeks;
  • twelve of them will be sited in section 6-149-96:

Daily Activity Report

NDIC Permit/File

BR

Name of Well

 Oil Field

S

T

R

July 29, 2020

37750

BR 

Kirklandfill 1C

Pershing

21

150

96

July 29, 2020

37751

BR

Kirklandfill 1B

Pershing

21

150

96

July 29, 2020

37752

BR

Kirklandfill 1A

Pershing

21

150

96

July 29, 2020

37753

BR

Morganfill 1C

Pershing

21

150

96

July 29, 2020

37754

BR

Morganfill 1B

Pershing

21

150

96

July 29, 2020

37755

BR

Morganfill 1A

Pershing

16

150

96

October 5, 2020

37878

BR

Rink 1-1-5MBH

Pershing

32

150

96

October 5, 2020

37879

BR

Kermit 1-8-32MBH

Pershing

32

150

96

October 5, 2020

37880

BR

Rink 2-1-5UTFH

Pershing

32

150

96

October 5, 2020

37881

BR

Kermit 1-8-32UTFH

Pershing

32

150

96

October 23, 2020

37921

BR

Parrish 2B TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 23, 2020

37922

BR

Boxstone 1A TFH-ULW

Pershing

6

149

96

October 23, 2020

37923

BR

Boxstone B MBH-ULW

Pershing

6

149

96

October 23, 2020

37924

BR

Boxer 2A TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 27, 2020

37926

BR

Boxer 2C TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 27, 2020

37927

BR

Parrish 2C MBH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 27, 2020

37928

BR

Boxer 2B MBH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 27, 2020

37929

BR

Parrish 3A TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37931

BR 

Parrish 3B MBH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37932

BR 

Parrish 3C TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37933

BR 

Parrish 4A MBH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37934

BR 

Boxer 3A TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37935

BR 

Boxer 3B MBH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37936

BR 

Boxer 3C TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37937

BR 

Parrish 4B MBH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37938

BR 

Parrish 4C TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37939

BR 

Boxer 4A MBH

Pershing

6

149

96

October 29, 2020

37940

BR 

Boxer 4B TFH

Pershing

6

149

96

Graphic, section 6-149-96

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Happy Halloween

From Sophia's "TutorTime," Colleyville, TX.