Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Tuesday -- January 27, 2015; Futures Plummet -- Probably On CAT, BTU News

I'm not there so I don't know but the news out of NYC this morning suggests the "storm" is much less than what was forecast 24 hours ago. Link here.

However, the science is settled on the forecast for global temperatures to rise by 1 degree 100 years from now according to Agore who has honorary degrees in climatology, meteorology, oceanography, and sciencetology.

“My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public,” [meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, New Jersey] tweeted. “You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn’t. Once again, I’m sorry.”

But we stand by "the one degree more in 100 years" forecast. 

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Active rigs:


1/27/201501/27/201401/27/201301/27/201201/27/2011
Active Rigs156187190204164

RBN Energy: will the NGL surplus and cheap oil derail export plans?

For those who missed it, yesterday's NDIC daily activity report starting with all the PNC wells certainly caught my eye.

Reporting today:

  • Big miss: Peabody Energy (BTU), expectation, - 35 cents; The company's net loss attributable to common stockholders narrowed to $514.6 million, or $1.92 per share, in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, from $565.7 million, or $2.12 per share, a year earlier. The results fell short of Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 36 cents per share.
  • Big miss: Caterpillar (CAT), expectation, $1.55, Caterpillar took a hit in the fourth quarter from restructuring costs and the heavy machinery maker issued a weak outlook for 2015, citing the tumbling price of commodities. Shares slumped more than 7 percent Tuesday before the markets opened. Caterpillar earned $757 million, or $1.23 per share, for the three-month period. A year earlier the Peoria, Illinois, company earned $1 billion, or $1.54 per share.
  • Apple (AAPL), expectation, $2.59, after market close;
  • AT&T (T), expectation, 55 cents, after market close;
  • Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO), expectation, 97 cents; 4:01 p.m. ET;
See disclaimer.

Reporting Tomorrow -- Yahoo!Finance -- January 27, 2015

I just noticed -- it's after midnight, central time.

So, reporting today:
  • Peabody Energy (BTU), expectation, - 35 cents; before market open;
  • Caterpillar (CAT), expectation, $1.55, 7:30 am. ET;
  • Apple (AAPL), expectation, $2.59, after market close;
  • AT&T (T), expectation, 55 cents, after market close;
  • Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO), expectation, 97 cents; 4:01 p.m. ET;
See disclaimer.

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Keystone XL Fails To Advance In The Senate

CNN is reporting
Senate Democrats blocked an effort by Republicans to end debate on a bill to approve the Keystone XL pipeline, a setback for GOP leaders who must rely on a handful of Democrats who have supported the project in the past in order to get approval of their top legislative priority of the new Congress.
60 votes were needed on a pair of procedural motions to end Democratic filibusters, but each failed on a 53-39 tally.
How did the Democratic Senator from North Dakota vote?
Only four of the nine Democrats who voted with Republicans to begin debate voted with them to end it. They were Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.
From the LA Times:
Complicating matters was the absence of key Republican senators, including Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who was making a campaign fundraising swing through California as a potential presidential contender.
Say what? The GOP Senate Majority Leader took this to a vote knowing that not all his people would be there?

Okay, time to move on.

Argentina: Best Candidate for Next Shale Boom? -- Rigzone -- January 26, 2015

From Rigzone, a look at shale's future worldwide. This long article will be archived.

North Dakota Rig Count Of Interest To Reuters Analyst -- January 26, 2015

From Reuters:
The decline in oil drilling that has occurred so far across the United States is probably enough to ensure U.S. production peaks by April or May, though that might not be evident until June or July given delays in publishing production records.
If the number of active rigs continues to decline in the next few weeks, which seems likely, it is reasonably likely U.S. oil production will be falling by June or July 2015.
In North Dakota, the number of rigs drilling for oil has fallen by almost a quarter in less than four months, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes. Baker Hughes puts the number of active drilling rigs in the state at just 147 last week, down from 189 at the beginning of October, and the lowest number since December 2010.
Baker Hughes counts rigs as active only when they are actually drilling – from the time the rig breaks ground and the well is spudded to the time the rig reaches target depth.
Meanwhile, things are not looking too good for the Russians. Also from Rigzone:
Russia's proven hydrocarbon reserves will increase much less than previously expected in 2015, the Russian Environment Ministry said on Monday, as lower oil prices and Western sanctions discourage exploration efforts. The ministry said it expected proven reserves to grow by around 500 million tones of oil and 650 billion cubic metres of gas this year, having previously seen growth of more than 750 million tonnes and 1.5 trillion cubic metres a year, respectively, between 2015 and 2020.
It's going to be a different world in 2020.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Permits Canceled After Slump In Prices; Producers Abandoned -- November, 2014 -- December, 2015

It's possible that today's NDIC daily active report was a one-off, but I wouldn't bet on it. I have never seen such a long list of canceled permits in one daily active report (yes, it's a 3-day report -- Saturday, Sunday, Monday -- but canceled permits would not occur over the weekend, just on normal business days). One or two canceled permits every couple of weeks was the norm back in 2013, and 2014, before October.

Note the dates the permits were canceled.

This page is linked at the sidebar at the right and canceled permits will be tracked here.

PERMITS CANCELED

January 26, 2015
18582, PNC, BR, Pacific Express 41-25H, Corral Creek, date PNC 12/10/14;
19120, PNC, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 2-4H, Lost Bridge, date PNC 12/10/14;
19121, PNC, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 13-9H, Lost Bridge, date PNC 12/10/14;
21972, PNC, Fram Operating, Goettle 1, wildcat, date PNC 12/11/14;
22209, PNC, Petro-Hunt, Fritz 142-100-22C-23-1H, date PNC 12/11/14;
24243, PNC, Statoil, Enderud 9-4 3TFH, Banks, date PNC 12/11/14;
24586, PNC, Thunderbird Resources, Charlie State 21-16-1H, Charlie Bob, date PNC 12/11/14;
24596, PNC, Bonneville 3625-1TFH, West Ambrose, date PNC 12/11/14;
26162, PNC, Corinthian Exploration, Corinthian Sivertson 16-16-1H, a Spearfish well, wildcat, date PNC 12/11/14;
27008, PNC, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, date PNC 1/16/15;
27009, PNC, Slawson, Phazor 4-1-12H, Bully, date PNC 1/26/15;

PRODUCERS ABANDONED

January 26, 2015
  • 15806, 42, BR, Federal Amy 14-8H, Mondak, a Bakken well, t10/05; cum 27K 11/14; last production 9/12;
  • 19597, 1,052, Newfield, Obenour 150-99-28-33-1H, South Tobacco Garden, 25 stages; 2.6 million lbs , t3/12; cum 89K 11/14; last production 9/13;
 

Eight (8) New Permits -- North Dakota -- January 26, 2015

Active rigs:


1/26/201501/26/201401/26/201301/26/201201/26/2011
Active Rigs156187190203163
 
Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:
27116, conf, EOG, Parshall 54-1014H, Parshall, producing, a pretty good well,
27205, conf, EOG, Parshall 52-1114H, Parshall, producing, a good well,
27943, conf, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-9TFH, Elk, a nice well,
27944, see below, Triangle, Eckert Foudnation 152-102-22-15-3H, Elk, a nice well, unusual production profile,
28591, conf, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 1H, Long Creek, no production data,
28614, conf, Samson Resources, Coronet 2413-8H, Ambrose, no production data,
28900, conf, Mountain Divide, BJNJ 19-18N-1H, Big Dipper, no production data,

Eight (8) new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting (3), Statoil (2), Samson Resources (2), Petro-Hunt,
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail), Stony Creek (Williams), Cow Creek (Williams), Blooming Prairie (Divide), Charlson (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Four (4) producing wells completed: 
  • 27837, 1,679, MRO, Bears Ghost USA 21-4TFH, McGregory Buttes, t1/15; cum --
  • 27839, 1,634, MRO, Bears Ghose USA 11-4TFH, McGregory Buttes, t12/14; cum --
  • 28282, 677, Hess, BW-Hedstrom-149-100-1210H-2, Ellsworth, t11/14; cum 21K 11/14;
  • 28358, 1,816, MRO, Reidun 21-27TFH, Bailey, t12/14; cum --
Producers abandoned:
  • 14706, 42/12; MBI, Dodge 34-24HR, Dimmick Lake, an old Duperow/Madison well; t1998/t2000; cum 53K 11/14; no production since 2012;
  • 15806, 42, BR, Federal Amy 14-8H, Mondak, a Bakken well, t10/05; cum 27K 11/14; last production 9/12;
  • 19597, 1,052, Newfield, Obenour 150-99-28-33-1H, South Tobacco Garden, 25 stages; 2.6 million lbs , t3/12; cum 89K 11/14; last production 9/13;
Permits canceled:
  • Slawson, two: #27009, #27008: Phazor and Thor, McKenzie County
  • Oasis, two: #27217, #27218: Loren in Williams County
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 27944, see above, Triangle, Eckert Foudnation 152-102-22-15-3H, Elk, a nice well, unusual production profile:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2014123650
10-201484840
9-201454140
8-2014243640
7-201436440


28174, see above, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-2H, Elk, producing, a nice well, look at the production profile:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201433620
10-201491365327
9-20141622514501
8-201435063019

28175, see below, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-1H, Elk, a huge well, interesting production profile:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2014134778573
10-201471332997
9-20141992212944
8-201445253118

Richard Zeits On The Accelerating Crude Oil Supply -- Seeking Alpha -- January 26, 2015

Richard Zeits is making the same observation the RBN Energy has been make for some time now.

Link at SeekingAlpha, the summary:
  • The supply/demand imbalance in the oil market deteriorated in the past seven weeks.
  • In the U.S. alone, the total oversupply increased by over 1.1 million barrels per day, judging by inventory data.
  • Spare storage capacity in the U.S. is quickly shrinking, and the short-term contango is widening.
  • Such dynamics would hardly be possible without proactive supply increases by key global exporters.
  • At the current pace, a true "oil glut" may arrive in just a few months. 
These articles are often archived for subscribers only.

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Do A Google Search To Confirm

Regular readers know the fun I have with Patrick Kennedy (or whichever Kennedy it was) who said that due to global warming, the Kennedy children (and your children) would never see snow again. I can't make that up. He didn't say your great-great-great-great grandchildren, but your children.

My children and grandchildren have seen a lot of snow since that comment was made.

If the Kennedys have missed the snow, they will get another chance this week. 

Why Apple Has A Fingerprint Sensor On Its Phone And Google Doesn't -- January 26, 2015

Flashback: End Of Snow -- New York Times, Last February (2014)

The planet has warmed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1800s, and as a result, snow is melting. In the last 47 years, a million square miles of spring snow cover has disappeared from the Northern Hemisphere.
Europe has lost half of its Alpine glacial ice since the 1850s, and if climate change is not reined in, two-thirds of European ski resorts will be likely to close by 2100.
The same could happen in the United States, where in the Northeast, more than half of the 103 ski resorts may no longer be viable in 30 years because of warmer winters. As far for the Western part of the country, it will lose an estimated 25 to 100 percent of its snowpack by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed — reducing the snowpack in Park City, Utah, to zero and relegating skiing to the top quarter of Ajax Mountain in Aspen.
The facts are straightforward: The planet is getting hotter. Snow melts above 32 degrees Fahrenheit. The Alps are warming two to three times faster than the worldwide average, possibly because of global circulation patterns.
Since 1970, the rate of winter warming per decade in the United States has been triple the rate of the previous 75 years, with the strongest trends in the Northern regions of the country. Nine of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, and this winter is already looking to be one of the driest on record — with California at just 12 percent of its average snowpack in January, and the Pacific Northwest at around 50 percent. 

The facts are: warming stopped 19 years ago. 
 
I wonder how many readers were aware of that: that snow melts above 32 degrees Fahrenheit

California has had a much wetter winter this year, by the way. 

As for skiing in Aspen, Colorado? Our granddaughters had a great ski trip in December to the Aspen area. 

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Wind Energy
 
For all its talk about renewable energy and wind energy, Germany has less wind energy capacity than that other economic European powerhouse, Spain. LOL.  Wind capacity, 2013, in million MWh:
  • US: 168
  • China: 136
  • Spain: 56
  • Germany: 52
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iPhone Fingerpoint Sensor

Why Apple's iPhone has a fingerprint sensor and Google's Motorola's Nexus 6 does not. Business Insider is reporting:
If you've ever used the Nexus 6, you might notice the subtle dimple on the back of the phone where the Motorola logo is located.
That indent was originally supposed to house a fingerprint sensor, but an Apple acquisition changed those plans.
Apple bought Authentec, a company that makes fingerprint sensors, for $356 million in 2012.
Motorola CEO Dennis Woodside recently told The Telegraph (via The Verge) that he believed Authentec made the best fingerprint sensors in the industry, and he wasn't willing to settle for the second best for the Nexus 6.
"The secret behind that is that it was supposed to be fingerprint recognition, and Apple bought the best supplier," Woodside told The Telegraph. "So the second best supplier was the only one available to everyone else in the industry and they weren't there yet."
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Recipe: Prime Rib

2 days before cooking: salt all sides of the roast and cover with a colander (allows air to circulate) or 1 layer of paper towels
Preheat oven to 350 degrees
Place on rack and cook for 30 minutes at 350 degrees then reduce heat to 250 degrees
For medium rare, cook approximately 28-30 minutes per pound until meat thermometer registers 131 degrees
Re-cap: 30 minutes at 350; reduce to 250 degrees and then 28 minutes/pound
Remove from oven and lightly tent with foil
Allow to rest approximately 20 minutes before carving

Affected By Slump In Oil Prices? -- January, 2015

I have a separate page for "things to follow up on," but there are so many wells that will have to be re-looked at later. These are the wells that seem "strange" for some reason, and perhaps affected by the slump in oil prices. 

January 26, 2015:
  • 27944, conf, Triangle, Eckert Foudnation 152-102-22-15-3H, Elk, a nice well, unusual production profile, 
  • 28174, conf, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-2H, Elk, producing, a nice well, look at the production profile, 
  • 28175, conf, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-1H, Elk, a huge well, interesting production profile,

January 26, 2015:
  • 25764, 24 (no typo), Oasis, Hannah Kaydence 5501 12-1T, Cow Creek, 15 total drilling days, no frack data, t7/14; cum 12K 11/14;
January 25, 2015: 28277, conf, Emerald, Lloyd Christmas 4-4-9H, Heart River, producing, a big well, but look at the decline rate coming just after price of oil slumped;

January 24, 2015: check back on Statoil's Melissa wells; these are huge IP wells that all went Inactive the month after they were tested, November, 2014, about the time of the price slump.


January 22, 2015: look at the name changes -- and PA?
  • 28567, conf, CLR, Wiley 6 PA (was Wiley 6-25H1)
  • 28568, conf, CLR, Wiley 7 PA (was Wiley 7-25H)

January 22, 2015: follow-up later
  • 26199, 380, Zavanna, Beagle 32-29 2TFH, Springbrook, t12/14; cum --
  • 26200, 772, Zavanna, Beagle 32-29 3H, Springbrook, t12/14; cum -- 
  • 26198, 409, Zavanna, Beagle 32-29 1H, Springbrook, t12/14; cum --
  • 27500, 245, XTO, Lyla 24X-10F, Lindahl, t11/14; cum -- 
January 22, 2015: were these wells choked back due to slump in oil prices?
  • 26448, 58, Newfield, Hovland 150-99-26-35-2H, South Tobacco Garden, t5/14; cum 3K 11/14; -- considered completed; but no evidence this well has been fracked
  • 27059, 1,320, BR, Denali 21-4TFH 2NH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum 6K 11/14;
  • 27061, 2,088, BR, Denali 21-4MBH 3NH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum 14K 11/14; 
  • 27060, 1,872, BR, Norman 21-4MBH, 2SH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum 14K 11/14;
  • 21374, 2,263, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 4TFH, Alger, t9/14; cum 6K 11/14;
  • 21373, 2,451, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 5H, Alger, t9/14; cum 8K 11/14;
  • 21375, 2,516, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 6TFH, Alger, t9/14; cum 8K 11/14;
  • 27575, 2,474, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 8H, Alger, t10/14; cum 8K 11/14;
  • 27085, 1,560, BR, Norman 34-33TFH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t7/14; cum 14K 11/15;
  • 27137, 1,872, BR, Denali 21-4MBH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t7/14; cum 5K 11/15;
  • 26799, 693, Hess, SC-Tom-153-98-1514H-4, Truax, t9/14; cum 33K 11/14;
January 22, 2015: was this a failed frack; will XTO re-frack it? Or did they choke it back with the slump in oil prices?
  • 26864, IA/184, XTO, Ruby State Federal 34X-36E, Grinnell, t9/14; cum 1K 11/14;

January 7, 2015 (see this link and #26216, #16991):
  • 20541, 60 (no typo), EOG, Wayzetta 114-0311H, Parshall, Three Forks, 1920 acres, 51 stages; 16 million lbs, t6/14; cum 3K 11/14;

Williston Wire's Top 10 Stories For 2015

Game Changer: Williston's new recreation center.

Ground breaking for Williston's new high school.

Big box breakthrough: construction begins on Menards.

Retail revival: Starboard opens, Sportman's Warehouse to build in Williston.

Investment hotspot: Williston attracts worldwide investors.

Williston's roadways under major remodel.

Mayor Koeser completes 20 years as Williston mayor.

Full time firefighters: voters pass sales tax for public safety.

FBI, USPS increase presence in Williston.

Williston's Economic Development switch: Wenko replaces retiring Rolfstad.