Monday, September 30, 2019

Are You Kidding Me? MNF: Two 0-3 Teams? -- September 30, 2019

I just checked in to see what my condition was in. LOL.

On the internet, of course. I've cut the cord.

But Monday Night Football. Wasn't Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football once the weekly NFL highlights? I don't know but that was always my world view.

So, tonight, 0 - 3 Cincinnati Bengals and the 0 - 3 Pittsburgh Steelers.

And then on top of that, a lop-sided score.

 

The good news. One of the two teams will have its first win for the season. The other team? 0 - 4. Wow. MNF. 

Just Dropped In, Kenny Rogers and the First Edition

Two Wildcat Lodgepole Wells On The Outskirts Of Dickinson, ND -- September 30, 2019

The graphics:



Both wells are on the confidential list:
  • 36308, conf/ros, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC; Oltmans Ocelot1-21, Wildcat, most likely vertical; most likely targeting the Lodgepole;
  • 36417, conf, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC; Oltmans Panther 1-16, Wildcat, most likely vertical; most likely targeting the Lodgepole;
More on the Lodgepole at this post, and linked at the sidebar at the right. That post was first written years ago when I knew very little about any of this: there may be a lot of mistakes, and a lot may have changed, but that was my understanding at the time. In addition, a lot of the links may be broken. Take it for what it's worth.

With Oil Prices Falling; Demand For Oil Declining; And A Worldwide Glut Of Oil, Millennial Journalists Act Surprised That Shale Oil Production GROWTH Is Declining -- September 30, 2019

Maybe I'm missing something, but are the new millennial journalists even at The WSJ unaware of free market capitalism? And the "S" curve almost everywhere?


The link at The WSJ.
The American shale boom is slowing as innovation plateaus—and just when shale’s importance in global markets has reached new highs following an attack on the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure.
U.S. oil production increased by less than 1% during the first six months of the year, according to the Energy Department, down from nearly 7% growth over the same period last year.
The best thing about this story. The huge photograph was taken outside of Williston, ND.


Of course, when journalists want to print something "bad" about shale oil, they reference the Bakken; when they want to print something "good" about shale oil, they reference the Permian. Yeah, I'm thin-skinned, very biased, and inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

And that's not entirely true. I've seen a lot of negative stories about the Permian, too.

I Don't Know If I Would Use "Exploding" In A Story About Teslas -- September 30, 2019

From The Drive:
With the widespread release of Tesla's V10 software beginning earlier this week, drivers gained access to a number of new vehicle features and integrations. One particular feature was the long-awaited Smart Summon functionality which gives drivers the ability to summon their vehicles to them from across a parking lot or in some other complex scenario.
Unfortunately, things aren't going exactly as planned. As the update started to push out to vehicles over-the-air, social media quickly began exploding with people posting photos and videos of their cars navigating through parking lots and streets using Tesla's new Smart Summon feature.
With the vehicle in the operator's line of sight, they can either summon the vehicle to them using their phone's GPS location or choose a nearby point on a map and the vehicle's on-board Autopilot hardware will begin navigating where it is told.
Somehow watching your $100,000 new EV plow into a parked car would not be particularly pleasant.

And what was the writer thinking, using "exploding" in a story about Teslas?

But, best of all, there's a video at the linked story.

How Long Will Driling Continue In The Bakken? An Update From Earlier Today -- A Reader Weighs In -- September 30, 2019

Earlier today I asked the question, how long might drilling in the Bakken go on? The discussion continues

Remember those "picture puzzles" when you were in elementary school: two pictures side-by-side and one had to spot the six differences? One of my readers was obviously very, very good at this.

This was his note regarding ND Pipeline Authority presentations I mentioned earlier today:
If you glance at pages 55/56 from the August, 2018 presentation, then compare the-near-identical graphics from the most recent (September, 2019) presentation pages 10, 11, and 13, something ... interesting ... has been added.
Before the reader's denouement, here are the slides in question:

From the August 30, 2018 presentation (a year ago):


From the September 19, 2019 presentation (just a couple of weeks ago):


The reader noticed this:
The newer work mentions but specifically excludes new technologies as well as EOR. These guys are aware of what is coming down the pike.
100 years production from the Bakken would be my reasonable guess. 
Here it is, same slide, with an oval around the additional verbiage:

 
By the way, years ago, during the boom, my own estimate was that the Bakken would be producing through 2100, although I had expected that new drilling would have ended well before then, although re-fracking would be ongoing.

So there are two end-dates to consider:
  • the date the last Bakken well is drilled
  • the date the last Bakken well is permanently shut-in

Top 20 IP Rates In The Bakken -- NDIC -- June 20, 2019 Presentation

Presentations.

Click on June 20, 2019.




From FAQs, #9:
  • 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 68K after 24 days;    

The Week In Pictures -- The Powerline Whistleblower Edition -- September 30, 2019

Link here.

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The President's Stellar UN Speech

Link here.

Nineteen Permits Renewed; Fifty-NIne Active Rigs In North Dakota -- September 30, 2019

WTI: drops almost 3%; falls $1.63/bbl; and is now trading below $55; less than two weeks after "the largest single disruption of oil production in history," -- Daniel Yergin. 

Active rigs:

$54.289/30/201909/30/201809/30/201709/30/201609/30/2015
Active Rigs5967583368

Three new permits, #37021 - #37023, inclusive:
  • Operators: PetroShale (2): XTO
  • Fields: Mandaree (Dunn County); Haystack Butte (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • PetroShale has two Horse Camp permits in section 11-149-93, Mandaree oil field
    • XTO has a permit for an Edwards Trust Federal well in Haystack Butte, section 19-149-97;
Nineteen permits renewed:
  • QEP (8): five MHA permits in Dunn County and three Moberg permits in McKenzie County
  • Bruin (6): six FB (Fort Berthold) Clinton permits, all in Dunn County
  • Crescent Point Energy (5): two Njos permits; one Lloyd permit, one Elena permit, and one Keither permit, all in Williams County;

How Long Is Driling Expected To Last In North Dakota? -- September 30, 2019

Presentations from the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

At the site, click on "Presentations."

Scroll down to August 30, 2018 (yes, last year): updated "Pipeline Authority" slides.

How many years left of drilling in North Dakota? Slide 29:


At least 20 years, probably 40 years, and possibly much more than that.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- September 30, 2019

Bakken milestone: Zacks. Old news but nice to see Zacks pointing it out for those coming late to the table:
Per North Dakota’s oil regulator, the state’s daily crude output rose 1.2% to a fresh monthly record in July, edging past the record set in June.  
The newest numbers showed that daily crude output remained above one million barrels for the 30th month, further confirming the status of North Dakota (centered on the Bakken formation) as one of the hottest shale plays in the United States.
Like crude, natural gas output also hit its highest level ever. The state churned out 2,947,892 thousand cubic feet per day in July, up from June’s 2,885,293 thousand cubic feet per day. Meanwhile, North Dakota’s total number of producing wells tallied 15,943 at the end of July, the highest on record.
The story: I think the biggest story is not so much North Dakota hit a new all-time production record but that the month-over-month increase, at 1.2%, was so robust. Most fun to read: the four comments at that Zack's link.

SRE: to sell Peruvian businesses to China Yangtze Power Co for $3.6 billion. Spurred by activist investor. What's not to like. SRE will focus on core US and Mexican markets. Are you a Mexi-can or a Mexi-can't?

Best Monday In Years! Another Win For The President; And, Schumer Is Fuming; Pelosi Is Plotting-- September 30, 2019

Updates

October 2, 2019: NYC McMansions in free-fall. Link here.  

 
Original Post
Behind a Bloomberg paywall:

Link here.
A federal judge handed the Trump administration a win Monday, dismissing a lawsuit from states with high taxes.

The lawsuit asked U.S. District Judge J. Paul Oetken to block the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act's limit on how much people can deduct in state and local taxes (SALT). The provision effectively raised the tax burden on citizens of high-tax states.

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Maryland brought the suit in July 2018, claiming the tax deduction limit was a way for the Trump administration to stick it to blue states. The judge ruled that the limit did not violate the 10th Amendment, which says that powers not delegated to the federal government in the Constitution are left to the states.

"The cap, again like every other feature of the federal Tax Code, is a part of the landscape of federal law within which states make their decisions as to how they will exercise their own sovereign tax powers," Oetken wrote.

"Because the States have failed to plausibly allege that the cap, more so than any other major federal initiative, meaningfully constrains this decision-making process, this Court has no basis for concluding that the SALT cap is unconstitutionally coercive," he continued.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act limited the state and local tax deduction at $10,000, which is below the average of what individuals claim in states like New York and Connecticut. Before the cap, the average deduction claimed in California, for example, was $22,000, according to Kevin de Leon, a Democratic member of the California state Senate.
As the reader who sent me this, said, "Please, pass the SALT."

"Thank you."

From the reader who sent me this, the background on the judge that threw this case out --
I pulled the Wiki on this judge (isn't that a great 21st century phrase; sort of like doxing, but legitimate) and scanned it to see who had appointed him.

Schumer recommended that Obama appoint him!  OMG.  If there were ever some venue shopping, I'd bet that this case was shopped.  Judge Oetken, an Eli of all things, worked for President Clinton, then left when George Bush was elected.  I am sure the D's thought they had this in the bag.

A Monday ruling, so there's a whole week's news cycle to relish this.  Normally, they'll bury bad news on a Friday to let it blow over.  I imagine Schumer's phone is ringing off the hook.  And of course, there's Pelosi and the California problem.  Those 2 big D's are going to have to divert a bunch of time and talent to manage this.  (;>)
And you know, with the House tied up with impeachment, nothing is going to get done with regard for tax relief for the rich and famous.

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Book Recommendation

Re-posting:
Anyone interested in natural history, run, don't walk to your nearest bookstore or surf over to Amazon and buy Natural Histories Innumerable Insects: The Story of the Most Diverse and Myriad Animals on Earth, Michael S. Engel, c. 2018.
I'm looking at this book again. It's really a great book. Highly recommended for grandparents to study and then share with their elementary-age grandchildren.


***********************************
Not A Book Recommendation
-- At Least Not Yet For 5 Year Old Sophia

Wrapping Up The Third Quarter, 2019

3Q19: 205 wells came off the confidential list for the third calendar quarter, 2019, in North Dakota.

Every well that ever came off the confidential list since 2010 has been posted. I would say that's quite a feat. I assume a a few have passed through the sieve, but not many.

30,809 stand-long posts have been posted since the blog was started up again back in 2009.

Google search, "Bakken oil blog" -- "themilliondollarway" takes two of the top four hits; currently #2 behind the Bakken Blog.


Twitter: 109 followers.

Webpage hits: 12,393,802.

Things On My Mind, Part 1 -- September 30, 2019

AAPL: it's been a long time since I've seen shares of Apple, Inc, jump this much this fast. Apple's October - December, 2019, quarter is going to be incredible. Just saying.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The president: in hindsight, his biggest mistake -- not "locking her up." She could have operated the "war room" from behind prison but it would have been a bit more difficult.

Cowboys: wow, I'm glad I did not watch the Dallas - New Orleans game last night. Was is it all field goals? The final score, I believe, was 12 - 10. Apparently not all field goals; Dallas must have made at least one touchdown. And the highest paid runner (player?) in the NFL ran 35 yards on 18 carries; he must have phoned it in. Let's see, 35/18 is less than two yards/carry? Dallas loses to a team playing with a back-up quarterback.

Cowboys: time to fire Jason Garrett?

NASCAR: did not watch.

Television: I've cut the cord. No more cable (or television for me). There will be, like everything in life, exceptions. Like at sports bars. But literally no television in the last ten days except for one British comedy last night to make my wife happy. The straw that broke the camel's back: that Monday night football game a couple weeks ago featuring the Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins on MNF? You have to be kidding. Then, NASCAR a week ago when Eric Jones was the first racer ever to be disqualified in a cup race. 

Market: occasionally I buy shares on margin. LOL. I buy something and then send a check to Schwab. If it takes more than three days to clear, I've bought something on margin. It happened over the weekend. There were so many good deals in the market last week, I couldn't resist. I was notified of the margin loan (as it were, LOL) this morning. I just checked my account. The check has now cleared and is in the account. It appears I had a Schwab loan for about eight hours. Ah, the perils of investing. Pocahontas will solve this.

No commissions: by the way, speaking of Schwab. I wonder when they will go to commission-free trades. Schwab talked about it a year or so ago; nothing happened. Now that Interactive Brokers has gone to commission-free trades, it forces Schwab's hand(s).

2020 presidential election: Romney vs Pocahontas. Perhaps more likely: Romney vs Hillary.

WPX Lion Wells In Mandaree Oil Field

The wells:
  • 34398, 3,347, WPX, Lion 18-19HX, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --; neighboring, #17658, s short lateral; off line most of 6/19;
  • 34396, 3,810, WPX, Lion 18-19HW, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 71K after 62 days;
  • 34960, 3,084, WPX, Lion 18-19HEL, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 76 K after 49 days;
  • 34397, 3,387, WPX, Lion 18-19HA, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 81K after 62 days;
  • 34400, 2,397, WPX, Lion 18-19HY, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 52K after 45 days;
  • 34399, 2,684, WPX, Lion 18-19HB, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 68K after 59 days;
  • 34401, 2,357, WPX, Lion 18-19HC, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 57K after 59 days;
  • 30278, 2,706, WPX, Joseph Eagle 19-18HD, Mandaree, t6/19; cum 223K 6/19; off line much of 6/19 - 8/19;
  • 30277, 2,759, WPX, Joseph Eagle 19-18HZ, Mandaree, t5/18; cum 327K 6/19; off line much of 6/19 - 8/19;
  • 32231, 2,063, WPX, Elm 19-18H1, 4 sections, Mandaree, t5/18; cum 263K 8/19;
  • 17658, 823, WPX, Nathan Hale 3-18H, Mandaree, t4/09; cum 221K 6/19; off line since 6/19; remains off line 8/19;
34399:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201931498244984525335541593504313409
BAKKEN7-2019281819018047107711977298248002


34400:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20193135386354332966538463301574144
BAKKEN7-2019141701416880154151849377108963

34397:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2019315667256724200316160354876287
BAKKEN7-20193124261240701014426372159567820

34960:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201931520875218026017566183122319440
BAKKEN7-20191824388241211157126511023901

34396:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20193146199462803451852682473630
BAKKEN7-201931247352454018406268871385810382

34398, 3,347, WPX, Lion 18-19HX, 33 stages; 8.3 million lbs; Three Forks; Mandaree, t7/19; cum --; neighboring, #17658, s short lateral near by was off line most of 6/19 and remains off line, 8/19. This is production for #34398:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20193140069401393243244437397740
BAKKEN7-20193021374212061710523234126738274

The graphics:



Idle Chatter -- September 30, 2019

Updates

October 1, 2019: first comment brought up here for easier access:
They are definitely experimenting with mass development. The Springer project in OK. Now a mass development in ND. And then some smaller pseudo mass developments. XOM is trying same thing in the Permian.

Impression I get from CLR is that this does not boost the EUR, but that it lowers the cost. That is the major driver. Keep the return the same (or close), while cutting cost.

Doing this sort of mass project requires a fair amount of planning. Sorto of have to build the institutional capability to running this sort of work. also have to have sufficient blocked up acreage to allow it.

I think the jury is still out on this approach. For one thing, it cuts down on flexibility and option value to change design over time. But if the industry does move in this direction, it argues for more consolidation, to block up land.
Original Post
 
I'm writing this note after posting the initial production number for the WPX Lion wells in Mandaree oil field. Again, these are incredible wells. I did not "cherry pick" by running through pages and pages of wells looking for a good well. I'm not even sure how I came across these wells. Again, I was looking for something else, happened to see that Lion well now reported its first full month of production, and was amazed. Most of these wells produced 50,000 bbls of oil in the first full month of production.

And yes, the production will decline over time.

Definition of the ideal well: a well that pays for itself in six months and generates positive cash flow for the next 35 years.

I probably look at more Bakken wells than any other individual who has a blog with only three ads and who used to live in North Dakota and now lives in Texas so I can say with some authority: the Bakken wells are simply incredible; they keep getting better and better; and the Bakken never ceases to amaze me.

For newbies. some interesting data points and reminiscing.

A reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. There are many, many ways to look at the Bakken. I do not look at it from an investor's point of view. I am looking at it from the view of someone who grew up in Williston, did not understand the oil industry, and from the view of how a small "mom-and-pop" mineral owner might look at the Bakken.

Before anyone else talked about it, I told readers that if "they had one well," they would eventually have two wells, probably four wells, possible eight wells, and possibly many, many more." We're now seeing in excess of twenty wells in a single drilling unit. We're seeing as many as four wells in some 320-acre units. I am talking about "small" mom-and-pop mineral owners, most of whom inherited their mineral acres from their grandparents or parents.

The way minerals are allocated, if that's the right word, in the Bakken has made some folks (again, we're talking small "mom-and-pop" mineral owners) very, very well off even if they owned only a few acres. Folks can participate in tens of wells even if their mineral acres are a mile away from the sited well.

Unlike the stories coming out of the Permian, I am not hearing or reading stories about "density" issues in the Bakken. To the contrary, it seems the operators have spacing figured out pretty well in the Bakken.

The operators know the middle Bakken very, very well. They were just ready to "map out" the entire first bench of the Three Forks when the Saudis opened their taps, flooded the world with oil, trying to crush US shale industry. That was back in 2014 - 2016. That push to "map out" the entire first bench of the Three Forks was put on hold and is still moving slowly due to the low price of oil. The second bench has hardly been touched. I have seen nothing yet to get me excited about the fourth bench.

If the price of oil were to trend high, my hunch is that some operators would look at the Red River formation again, maybe to the extent of competing with current efforts targeting the second bench of the Three Forks.

As noted by the monthly EIA dashboards, the Bakken wells (individually) are so much better than Permian wells.

Day rates for rigs must be plummeting.

Cost of sand must be down by a quite a bit.

Analysts still don't understand shale well. Perhaps none of us do. Still learning.

It seems there are only a handful of operators really busy in the Bakken. They say there are 60 active operators in North Dakota but it seems only a few are really, really active. Continental Resources is one of the really active operators. Based on anecdotal data, it certainly seems Harold Hamm has tweaked his business plan. He seems to be doing several things, all in concert:
  • pushing infill / development drilling faster than ever
  • concentrating infill / development drilling in a limited number of fields
  • using one or two rigs to drill wells one right after another in an increased density project as quickly as possible
The "gold standard" for drilling: drill the vertical in three days; drill the curve in 12 - 24 hours; drill the horizontal in three days.

Completion strategies: drill all the wells out in one pad; don't frack/complete the wells until all wells on that pad are drilled. Some frack immediately after all pad wells are drilled; some wait six to eighteen months to complete the well. The mantra, "the more sand the better," appears to be generally true, but I think there's a lot more to it. 

The CLR Long Creek unit is perhaps the best example of what CLR is now doing, but there are others that are just off the radar scope.

Even if drilling were to stop today in the Bakken, there are tens of thousands of oil wells that would continue to require oil well servicing.

I wonder why some analyst doesn't post the number of frack spreads in the major US shale plays like they post the number of active rigs. 

Monday, September 30, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

XOM: sells Norwegian assets for $4.5 billion. At Rigzone.

Shipping: from Bloomberg.
More than two months and 20,000 kilometers (12,000 miles) ago, the tanker Da Yuan Hu left Singapore and headed to Mexico to pick up a shipment of crude oil. On Thursday, with less than two weeks to go until it reaches its destination, its long quest could be in jeopardy.
The ship, along with dozens of others, is now ensnared in the standoff between the U.S. and Iran. The White House announced penalties against the vessel’s owner, China’s COSCO Shipping Tankers Co., in connection with violating sanctions by shipping Iranian crude. Indian Oil Corp. is considering alternatives to the Da Yuan Hu.
AAPL: new price target.  JP Morgan / CNBC.

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Early Morning Trading

Dow: up 100 points
  • SRE: opens at all-time high; drops back a bit
  • F: up a bit
  • AAPL: up nicely; will come back to this; and goes over $1 trillion market cap (again); the first trillion is always the hardest;
  • UNP: up about 3/4ths of a percent 
  • RDS-B: down a bit and trading below $60
  • EPD: down a bit
  • ET: flat
Movers and shakers: looks like the movers and shakers will drive the market higher this morning (if it can hold); close out their books on 3Q19 looking good, and then take profits in October, 2019, to really have a great year heading into the consumer (aka, Christmas) season.

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Sprint -- Apple

On Saturday I was at the local Sprint store adding a third telephone line, paying off the leased iPhone SE which I will keep "forever" (I love it); and, buying a new iPhone 11 for a third party to be on our account. The extended family plan as it were. LOL.

While there I was able to talk to a few other folks. One was a college student, perhaps a graduate student now. She had an iPhone some years ago and then switched to Android for reasons I now forget. She said she had all Apple products but for some reason she switched to Android. She said she was now switching back to Apple iPhone and said she would never go back to Android. She can't believe she switched in the first place.

The local Sprint story was very, very busy and most of the business it seemed had to do with the iPhone. The prices are really good -- the fact that they brought out the new iPhone without raising the price was incredible.

The camera is not particularly important to me, but those that do find the camera important are very, very happy with the new iPhone.

Something tells me JP Morgan's new price target is not out of line.

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Sophia - Arithmetic

Sunday, Sophia and I spent the afternoon in the Grapevine (TX) library. She really enjoys the library.

While there I gave her an arithmetic assignment. After writing down the "questions," I gave her the paper, and then she went elsewhere in the library to do the paper. She came back in a few mintues with her answers. See below.

I asked if she was doing this at Montessori kindergarten. She said she was not, She had never seen this particular format before.

3Q19 Earnings

Calendar.


Earnings season begins soon

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.


Earnings -- 3Q18

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

TSLA, October 3, 2019 -- forecasts for another quarterly loss; this site says about a $1.40 loss for the 3Q19; another source says a 24-cent loss for quarter; Tesla will probably report late October, 2019.

 

New Wells Reporting 4Q19

Monday, October 21, 2018: 70 for the month; 70 for the quarter:
36324, conf, BR, CCU Burner 1A TFH,
33786, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 6-27-34-157N-100W MBH,

Sunday, October 20, 2019: 68 for the month; 68 for the quarter:
35210, conf, Whiting, Moline 21-14-1TFH

Saturday, October 19, 2019: 67 for the month; 67 for the quarter:
36019, conf, WPX, Bison 27-34HX,
35396, conf, Hess, RS-Aadnes-157-91-2829H-2, 
34973, conf, CLR, Rader 5-24H1
34944, conf, Whiting, Moline 44-10-1H, 
33785, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 2-22-15-157N-100W MBH, 
33025, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 10-17H1
31968, conf, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen Trust 153-95-17D-7-4H, 

Friday, October 18, 2019: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter:
36018, conf, WPX, Bison 27-34HA, 
35988, conf, Slawson, Moray Federal 1 SLH,
34972, conf, CLR, Rader 6-24H, 
34945, conf, Whiting, Moline 41-15-1TFH
33784, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 2-27-34-157N-100W TFH
30650, conf, CLR, Sorenson 3-16H, 
30646, conf, CLR, Sorenson 8-16H, 

Thursday, October 17, 2019: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter:
36017, conf, WPX, Bison 27-34HW,
35173, conf, Zavanna, George 19-30 7TFH, 
34760, conf, Whiting, Berger 21-15-1H, 
33783, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 7-22-15-157N-100W, 

Wednesday, October 16, 2019: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter:
35947, conf, XTO, Bronson 31X-14A, 
34971, conf, CLR, Rader 7-24H1
33782, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 7-27-34-157N-100W TFH
33593, conf, BR, Anderson Ranch 1D TFH

Tuesday, October 15, 2019: 45 for the month; 45 for the quarter:
35949, conf, XTO, Bronson 31X-14C, 
35948, conf, XTO Bronson 31X-14C, 
35685, conf, Whiting, Marlene 21-30HU, 
35172, conf, Zavanna, George 19-30 6H,

Monday, October 14, 2019: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter:
  • 36016, SI/NC, WPX, Bison 27-34HEL, Eagle Nest, no production data;
  • 35715, SI/NC, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HW, Mandaree, no production data;
  • 34970, 1,651, CLR, Rader 8-24H, Avoca, t7/19; cum 44K 8/19;
  • 34969, 1,096, CLR, Rader 9-2H1, Avoca, t7/19; cum 33K 8/19;
Sunday, October 13, 2019: 37 for the month; 37 for the quarter:
  • 35950, SI/NC, XTO, Bronson 31X-14D, Temple, no production data yet;
  • 34946, 1,319, Whiting, Moline 44-10-1TFH, Tyrone, t5/19; cum 91K 8/19;
  • 34924, 1,648, CLR, Collison 11-23H, 44 stages; 10.4 million lbs; Avoca, t7/19; cum 60K 8/19;
  • 30647, IA, CLR, Sorenson 7-16H2, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;
Saturday, October 12, 2019: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter:
  • 35714, 2,798, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HE, Mandaree, t8/19; cum 62K in two months; and here's the frack data: 33 stages; 8.7 million lbs;
  • 30648, 1,716, CLR, Sorenson 5-16H, Alkali Creek, t9/19; cum --;
Friday, October 11, 2019: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter:
  • 35713, 1,450, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HQL, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 28K 8/19;  
Thursday, October 10, 2019: 30 for the month; 30 for the quarter:
  • 35109, 956, CLR, Morris 7-26H2, Oakdale, t4/19; cum 96K 8/19;
  • 34890, 1,107, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 148-94-35D-26-14H, Big Stone, t12/18; cum 104K 8/19;
  • 34435, 1,103, Enerplus, Scrooge 148-93-20B_29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 78K 8/19;
Wednesday, October 9, 2019: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter:
  • 35170, 306, Zavanna, George 19-25 2HXW, Avoca, t4/19; cum 106K 8/19; 
  • 34436, 156, Enerplus, Dewey 148-93-20B-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 64K 8/19;
Tuesday, October 8, 2019: 25 for the month; 25 for the quarter:
  • 30649, 2,108, CLR, Sorenson 4-16H1, Alkali Creek, this will be a very, very nice well, producing nearly 40,000 bbls in first full month of production; t5/19; cum 81K 8/19;
Monday, October 7, 2019: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter:
  • 35653, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HW, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 35652, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HA, Spotted Horn, no production data,
Sunday, October 6, 2019: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter:
  • 35651, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HS, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 35650, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 36-25HB, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 34968, 1,905, CLR, Rader 10-24H, Avoca, t7/19; cum 64K 8/19;
  • 34908, 916, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-8H, Elk, t4/19; cum 108K 8/19;
Saturday, October 5, 2019: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter:
  • 35348, 1,478, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H, Alkali Creek, t4/19; cum 75K 8/19;
  • 35347, 1,974, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek, t4/19; cum 122K 8/19;
  • 34759, 2,401, Whiting, Berger 24-20-1H, Tyrone, t4/19; cum 126K 8/19;
Friday, October 4, 2019: 15 for the month; 15 for the quarter:
  • 35649, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HU, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 35315, 2,077, CLR, Putnam 11-25HSL, East Fork, t7/19; cum 43K 8/19;
  • 35314, 1,452, CLR, Putnam 10-25H1, East Fork, t6/19; cum 54K 8/19;
  • 35313, 1,354, CLR, Putnam 9-25H, East Fork, t6/19; cum 52K 8/19;
  • 31809, 2,581,, EOG, Riverview 21-3032H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/19; cum 29K over 14 days; extrapolates to 61K over 30 days;
Thursday, October 3, 2019: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter:
  • 35648, SI/NC, WPX, Hackberry 34-27HG, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 34762, 592, Whiting, Berger 21-15 -1TFH, Tyrone, t4/19; cum 55K 8/19;
  • 34596, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-4, Robinson Lake, no production data;
Wednesday, October 2, 2019: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter:
  • 34595, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-3, Robinson Lake, no production data,
Tuesday, October 1, 2019: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter:
  • 34761, 1,248, Whiting, Berger 24-10-1TFH, Tyrone, t4/19; cum 85K 8/19;
  • 34594, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-LE-154-93-3031H-1, 
  • 34440, 1,084, Enerplus, Mallard 148-93-20B-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 126K 8/19;
  • 34439, 627, Enerplus, Daffy 148-93-20A-29H, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 149K 8/19;
  • 34438, 619, Enerplus, Muscovy 148-93-20A-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 143K 8/19;
  • 34437, 927, Enerplus, Canvasback 148-93-20B-29H, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 136K 8/19;

Data for 4Q19: this page
Data for 3Q19:  3Q19
Data for 2Q19: 2Q19
Data for 1Q19: 1Q19
Data for 4Q18: 4Q18
Data for 3Q18: 3Q18
Data for 2Q18: 2Q18
Data for 1Q18: 1Q18
Data for 4Q17: 4Q17
Data for 3Q17: 3Q17
Data for 4Q16: 4Q16
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16
Data for 1Q16: 1Q16
Data for 4Q15: 4Q15
Data for 3Q15: 3Q15
Data for 2Q15: 2Q15
Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14
Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14
Data for 1Q14: 1Q14
Data for 4Q13: 4Q13
Data for 3Q13: 3Q13
Data for 2Q13: 2Q13
Data for 1Q13: 1Q13
Data for 4Q12: 4Q12
Data for 3Q12: 3Q12
Data for 2Q12: 2Q12
  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   
Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 
Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 
Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 
 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  
 Data for 2H10: 2H10 
Through 1H10: 1H10

Four Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- September 30, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Monday, September 30, 2019: 73 for the month; 205 for the quarter:
  • 35628, 649, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H, Little Knife, t7/19; cum 38K 8/19;
  • 33592, 247, BR, Anderson Ranch 1E MBH, Camel Butte, t7/19; cum --;
Sunday, September 29, 2019: 71 for the month; 203 for the quarter:
  • 35312, 1,443, CLR, Putnam 8-25H1, East Fork, t5/19; cum 37K 8/19;
  • 34825, 988, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-13H, Elk, t4/19; cum 116K 8/19;
Saturday, September 28, 2019: 69 for the month; 201 for the quarter:
  • None.
Active rigs:

$55.109/30/201909/30/201809/30/201709/30/201609/30/2015
Active Rigs5867583368

RBN Energy: is the Permian natural gas price real?
After months of severe natural gas pipeline constraints, Permian producers and shippers are reveling in the relief of new takeaway capacity. Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express (GCX) Pipeline, which began flowing initial volumes in mid-August, last week began full commercial service on its 2-Bcf/d greenfield route from the Permian to South Texas. Actual volumes on GCX are hard to come by, but all indications are that flows are ramping to near capacity. That surge in Permian outflows in recent weeks has propelled natural gas prices at the regional benchmark Waha Hub — which traded as low as $5.00/MMBtu below zero earlier this year and fell into negative territory as recently as August 8 — to nearly $2/MMBtu, levels not seen at the hub since last winter. However, with the sting from negative prices only now just fading, many in the market are wondering if this rally is here to stay or just a temporary reprieve. Today, we look at the latest developments in the Permian natural gas market.
Permian gas prices have been fun to follow, if not trade, this year, and have provided the fodder for many an RBN blog of late. With GCX entering full service, it looks like prices have really turned the corner, at least for a little while. As an intrastate pipeline — entirely situated within Texas state lines — GCX isn’t required to post daily flow data like federally regulated interstate pipelines do. But comments from the company suggest the pipe was flowing close to 1 Bcf/d a couple of weeks ago, and industry chatter since then suggests that it has continued to ramp up and is perhaps now close to its capacity of 2 Bcf/d. Kinder Morgan also confirmed on September 24 that the pipeline is now fully operational. The incremental takeaway capacity from GCX has almost instantaneously eased what had become crippling transportation constraints for moving gas supply out of the Permian. That, in turn, has allowed regional gas prices to soar, at least on a relative basis compared to where they were in the summer, providing much-needed relief to Permian producers and their likely exhausted gas marketers.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

A CLR Hereford Federal Well Is Finally Producing -- September 29, 2019

Note: since one can't click on links from the comments, I've brought these comments up here. First, from a reader:
Elm Tree is the best field in the Bakken in terms of average well cumulative, per Shaleprofile.com.

There is a lot of variation in quality by year though. Mostly getting better over time, albeit, the best year was actually a small number of wells in 2016.
Impression I have is that they have gotten better in frac jobs,but also that the 2017 infill was pretty heavy with tight spacing, fighting some of the benefit in frac improvement.

And an odd pattern of development (probably from land issues). Several years of only a few wells per year and then a load of 2017/2018 wells by CLR.

There are three operators there, CLR (101 wells), Hess (13 wells), Slawson (4 wells).
Now, my reply:
I used to track the various fields in the Bakken to help me better understand what was going on. I haven't updated most of them in a long, long time, now that I have a better feeling for them.

Here is the list of fields I have updated over the years:
For quite awhile, I tracked productivity by field, again, to give me an idea of what was going on. That was labor intensive, so I haven't done it in a long time. One can see those lists by clicking on this URL and wading through a lot of posts:
 Original Post

Wow, this is pretty cool. From an earlier note:
  • September 12, 2019: #32354, 174, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, t8/19; cum 0; has never produced anything; no frack data; API: 33-053-07430; FracFocus says fracked 3/28/17 - 4/15/17; huge frack with 12.6 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass; 8/19; still confidential, but production being posted; wow! 8/19 --producing!
Checking in on this well tonight: it is still confidential, but it is producing!

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201935055041

Good luck to the "mom-and-pop" mineral owners on this one! 

MRO Wells In Chimney Butte Recently Completed/Fracked -- September 29, 2019

These three wells are still being reported as DUCs, but as least one has been fracked according to FracFocus, and so I assume all three have been fracked:
  • 36108,
  • 36265, SI/NC, recently fracked; MRO, Dorothy 14-12TFH, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 36266,
What makes this so cool, through pure serendipity I found two good wells were recently taken off line. That often means one thing in the Bakken: neighbors being fracked. The two wells recently taken off line:
  • 16908, 248, MRO, Marlin 14-12H, Chimney Butte, t3/08; cum 154K 5/19; taken off line 5/19;
  • 16180, 128, MRO, Marlin 24-12H, Chimney Butte, t8/06; cum 354K 5/19; taken off line 5/19;
So, we'll check back in on these wells in a few months.

The BR Dakotan Wells Coming Back On Line -- September 29, 2019

After being off line for about a year, these wells are now coming back on line. I will update their 8/19 production when it becomes available:
January 10, 2019: #30090, #30091, #30092; neighboring well recently fracked. Still off line as of 6/19; wells back on line as of 7/19; with nice production;
One of the three wells:
  • 30092, 2,664, BR, CCU Dakota 7-8-17MBH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 242K 7/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201927258224912684278011051601
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-201800200000
BAKKEN11-20183149129255460
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-201800650000
BAKKEN5-20181691698011632261810
BAKKEN4-2018271682181818597947170
BAKKEN3-2018311704182921597076150
BAKKEN2-2018281758175224594293370
BAKKEN1-2018311593148825723172140
BAKKEN12-201731101479028842541530