Notes From All Over -- The Early Evening Edition -- July 2, 2020

Natural gas fill rate, link here:

Global oil prices: something is happening -- note the increase in Brent and OPEC basket, as well as the differential between WTI and overseas blends:

Global refineries: Prince Salman's "Vision 2030" is going to have a profound impact on global refineries. From oilprice:

A wave of new oil refineries coming online in the Middle East and China will knock others offline, ushering in a period of consolidation, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.

Global oil demand has taken an enormous hit from the Covid-19 pandemic. Depending on who you ask, demand may recover swiftly, or it may take a few years, or demand may actually never recover to levels seen prior to the pandemic.

DNV just published a report that estimates that oil demand may have peaked in 2019, although it warned that demand in 2050 will still be about where it is today. Improvements in energy intensity offset economic growth, but because demand is mostly flat for the next few decades, the world makes little progress on climate targets in this scenario.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- June 25, 2020

Updates

June 27, 2020: link to EIA, US natural gas storage capacity.

June 27, 2020: see comments. From a reader:

Footnote: it was the most natural gas added to storage during any June week in the modern record, and the 3rd largest natural gas storage increase in the past decade...

Natural gas prices fell to a 25-year low after the report on fears we'd run out of cavern space to store the stuff...

Original Post

 
Link here.

After report, natural gas plunges to all-time low.
Looks like the shaded part of the graph may soon change.

Rigs Don't Matter -- Laying Down Rigs, Shutting In Wells, And Still It Rises .... Natural Gas -- May 30, 2020

Natural gas fill rate, link here. Look at these numbers, simply staggering. And this comes despite the industry "shutting down" as fast as it can:

• working gas storage: an increase of 109 BCF from the previous week
• working gas storage: an increase of 42% year-over-year
• working gas storage: an increase of 19% over 5-year-average (and the 5-year average keeps increasing)
• week-over-week increases:
• total: 4%
• east: 7.5%
• midwest; 5%

The weather has been incredible. No evidence of global warming that would necessitate increased a/c, and no really cold weather that requires natural gas. Also, with everything shut down, the large retail sector is not using energy to heat/cool their stores. 

A musical interlude. For those who may have missed my earlier posts on the viola da gamba:

Bach's Sonata For Harpischord and Viola da Gamba in G Minor, Lucile Boulanger, Arnaud De Pasquale

Natural Gas -- Futures -- May 16, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

On the other hand, link here:

Natural Gas Surprise This Winter? -- RBN Energy -- April 27, 2020

Bloom and gloom: I used to follow Bloom Energy fairly closely years ago, then lost interest when it appeared to be going nowhere. I happened to speak with an engineer who was acquainted with the technology and had actually toured the plant. For some reason, out of the blue he asked if I had ever heard of Bloom. Of course, I had. Later, I googled Bloom to see if there were any updates.  Wow, jackpot! Forbes investigation, published just a couple of months ago; one of the longer articles I've seen in Forbes. Link here. Archived. And what Motley Fool thinks.

Natural gas: could be a surprise this winter. See RBN Energy below. Natural gas fill rate, link here.

Natural gas: anecdotal -- I spoke to an individual in the natural gas arena over the weekend -- said the same thing.

ET: asks permission to turn pipelines into oil storage. ArgusMedia.

OPEC basket: $15.23.  Was $14.31 last Friday.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$13.42	4/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018	04/27/2017	04/27/2016
Active Rigs	30	64	62	48	27

Three permits coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday --

Monday, April 27, 2020: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter, 284 for the year:

• 35533, 997, Oasis, Merritt 5693 13-24 7T, Alger, producing, a 22K month; t11/19; cum 78K 2/20; frack data not yet scanned in over at NDIC; see jump in production at neighboring well;

Sunday, April 26, 2020: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 283 for the year:

• 37007, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Chase Douglas 1A-32-29-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data, 

Saturday, April 25, 2020: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter, 292 for the year:

• 36903, drl, PetroShale, Hickok Federal 1MBH, Bear Den, 

RBN Energy:Appalachian E&Ps' shares soar on forecasted associated gas decline. Archived.

COVID-related demand destruction and the oil price meltdown have engulfed energy markets and companies in a thick, pervasive shroud of doom and gloom. But investors and analysts have hit upon a potential bright spot for one segment of the industry: Gas-Weighted E&Ps that had been battered by the decade-long shift of upstream capital investment to crude-focused resource plays. The massive cutbacks in 2020 capital investment by oil producers triggered by the recent, dramatic decline in refinery demand for crude will reduce not only oil output, but associated gas production as well. That drop in supply raises the prospect of meaningful increases in natural gas prices in 2021 –– hence Wall Street’s new interest in Gas-Weighted producers, whose equity values have taken off in recent weeks after a big plunge earlier this year. There’s a lingering concern though, namely that LNG exports — a key driver of gas demand for U.S. producers — may be slowed by collapsing gas prices in key international markets. Today, we discuss what’s been going on. 

Over the past few years, associated gas production from the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and other basins drove total supply growth that outpaced record growth in U.S. natural gas demand. The resulting imbalance steadily eroded Henry Hub prompt gas futures pricing to a recent low in the mid-$1.50s/MMBtu — a level not seen since 1995. The impact on the publicly traded Gas-Weighted E&Ps we track was dramatic, with the share prices of producers such as Range Resources, Southwestern Energy and Antero Resources plunging more than 95% through first-quarter 2020, from their 2013-14 highs. However, since April 1, share prices of the eight significant U.S. Gas-Weighted E&Ps — all Appalachia-focused — have risen sharply, with six of them more than doubling in price over the three-week period.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- February 13, 2020

Link here.

One New Permit -- February 6, 2020

NGL fill rate -- moving closer to a new five-year max:

Market: all three major US equity markets hit all-time highs:

• Dow: about 29,380
• NASDAQ: about 9,570
• S & P 500: about 3,345

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$51.05	2/6/2020	02/06/2019	02/06/2018	02/06/2017	02/06/2016
Active Rigs	54	62	58	40	42

One new permit, #37365:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Bully (McKenzie)
• Comment:
• Whiting has a permit for a Sorenson well in Bully oil field, section 6-148-99;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30179, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 7-29-32TFH,
• 30178, n/d, Slawson, Diamondback 1 SLH, 

Notes From All Over, Part 1-- The $12-Lego-Kobe NBA Minifigure Worth $100 -- January 29, 2020

First things first: the other day I was talking about Lego. I was not aware that Lego had a license with the NBA and sold NBA basketball player mini-figures. These figures go for about $10/mini-figure. Our local "Bricks & Minifigs" has about six mini-NBA figures, each priced about $12. Last week the "Kobe Bryant" figure was selling for $10 - $12. Today? $75.

See eBay link.

Next up: CBO report out. It appears the revenue raised through the "Trump tax cut" has completely paid for the tax cuts. If that makes sense. A report heard on the run. Need to see hard copy of the report.

Now, back to oil and natural gas.

The monthly natural gas fill rate, link here: could we see a new five-year maximum?

Natural Gas Stores Increasing In The Middle Of Winter -- January 23, 2020

Natural gas fill rate, link here.

Pay some time looking at this graphic; it's rather amazing on so many levels.

Quick! What month is it? What season is it?

Answers: January. Winter. 

And natural gas stores are already starting to increase. [See first comment: I was wrong: natural gas stores continue to decrease, just not as fast as the previous week.]

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- November 21, 2019

 Link here.

Meanwhile, up in the great white north:

Notes From All Over -- Part 4-- November 7, 2019

US natural gas: 



 

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Permian Pipeline

Link here. 

• Agua Blanca natural gas pipeline
• expansion to double capacity approved
• Delaware Basin expansion 
• currently: a 36-inch diameter, 1.4 billion cubic fpd; 90 miles
• expansion: a 42-inch; capacity to more than 3 billion cfpd
• WhiteWater Midstream, LLC
• JV partner: MPLX LP 
• in addition, WhiteWater and MPLX okay'ed the 458-mile Whistler Pipeline that will link to Agua Blanca
• natural gas to the Texas Gulf Coast

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Pakistan Coal

Coal is dead, long live coal. I don't think this is an outlier:

Clearing Off The Desktop -- October 19, 2019

Should we start with the price of gasoline in California?

Natural gas inventories and "fill rate":

Schlumberger in deep trouble:

Flaring in the Bakken:

And, finally, rig count:

Natural Gas Prices Slide To 3-Week Low; New Yorkers Won't See Benefit -- September 26, 2019

Link here.

Meanwhile:

Natural gas prices slide 3% to a three-week low. Link here.

Natural-gas prices fell Thursday after government data showed U.S. stockpiles rose more than analysts expected.

Front-month natural-gas futures declined 3% to $2.428 per million British thermal units, a three-week low, after the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that natural-gas inventories last week surged by 102 billion cubic feet, compared with the 89 billion cubic feet that analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted.

“We had thought the number would be smaller because a lot of the country has been experiencing unusual, late-season heat,” said Kent Bayazitoglu, director of market analytics at Gelber & Associates. Natural-gas demand tends to rise when more people use their air conditioners in the summer and heaters in the winter.

By the way, when one reads the articles very, very closely regarding the situation in New York City / New Jersey, one gets the feeling there is much more to this story than simply a bunch of rabble-rousers who are trying to stop expansion of a pipeline where there are already many pipelines. Something tells me there's a bit of "something else" going on. Whenever my granddaughters ask me something they don't understand, I tell them to google it or follow the money. In this case (the NYC/New Jersey natural gas pipeline story) I suggest following the money.

SoCal NatGas Injections At Risk -- Platts -- August 29, 2019

The graph is a bit hard to read at this link but it appears to be a bit more interesting than usual.

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Cognitive Dissonance

Being reported once again:

• major genetic link to same sex behavior, but no "gay" gene
• comment: most likely polygenetic morphism, like most other conditions

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Barely Keeping Up -- August 23, 2019

Link here. Record production and barely keeping up with US consumer demand. What a great country!

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Sophia

Until the after-school students arrive, Sophia is now the oldest child at her Tutor Time, and she loves it.

 

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The Sports Page

Wow, the NBC Golf channel is doing an incredibly bad job televising the FedEx tour champiosnhip.

They are spending more time covering "big names" practicing and very little time actually providing video of live golf.

Very, very disappointing. Possibly the worse coverage I've seen in years.

And if you like commercials, NBC Golf channel is the place to be. Wow. What a disappointment. I guess this is what happens when both Tiger and Phil miss the cut.

Later: and now, barely into the second round, the tournament is "called" due to thunderstorms.  This may just rank as one of the lowest-watched PGA FedEx championships ever.

Interestingly, I have yet to see a FedEx commercial.

So, back tomorrow.

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- July 25, 2019; Another Great Jobs Report And It Won't Even Get Any Coverage

Jobs. Link here to first time unemployment claims --

• prior: 216K
• consensus: 219K
• actual: 206K
• so, first time unemployment claims drop by 10,000; consensus was for a jump of 3,000
• won't even get mainstream media coverage

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US Natural Gas

From twitter:

 
Natural gas fill rate, link here. Even with the glut of natural gas production in every oil and gas basin in the US, the country cannot keep up. Note the leveling off of the infill rate when it should be increasing:

 
From twitter today:

Bummer -- Gasoline Demand -- July 19, 2019

Updates

July 20, 2019: see comments. Nice comment from someone who really understands this stuff. Me? Not so much. LOL.

Original Post 

Link here.

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Natural Gas Fill Rate

Slight change in slope. Air conditioning?

Link here.

Think about it:

Think about it. Sure, Big Oil / Big NG is losing money on natural gas right. But America, as a country, is benefiting Big Time with all this cheap, dependable, dispatchable energy.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Still Below The 5-Year Average But Rising Fast -- July 11, 2019

Link here.

Rate of fill continues to be quite steep.

US Natural Gas Production On Pace For One Of Strongest Refill Seasons Since 1994 -- July 7, 2019

New natural gas links:

• traderscommunity: into the vortex: EIA reports +89 Bcf build in natural gas storage (the reader who sent me this link suggests this site posts NG data every week); this looks like the "front page" for that link: https://traderscommunity.com/index.php/oil-energy/. 

The reader also noted this EIA note on US natural gas, dated July 2, 2019:

With the fast start to this injection season, 2019 is on pace to see one of the strongest refill seasons since 1994, even if the rate of increase slows.

For example, if net injections into storage match the five-year (2014–2018) average for the remainder of the refill season, cumulative net injections will total 2,399 Bcf by the end of October. If remaining refill season net injections equal the most recent five-year average:

• the 2019 refill season would be the fifth-largest refill season since 1994<>
• net injections for the season would exceed the five-year average fill by 16%
• working gas stocks would total 3,529 Bcf at the end of the refill season—only about 5% lower than the five-year average

The EIA site for above data: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html.