Thursday, September 30, 2021

Traveling Today -- Blogging Limited -- September 30, 2021

Government shut-down; debt limit; budget: you know, if every social security recipient and every military active duty and retiree would simply forego their October check, and possibly their November check, the budget crisis would be resolved at least through the middle of next year.  

It looks like the US Congress finally found another revenue source. Look for "fees" on all those Amazon boxes shipped to your home. Let's say, an average of $1.50 / box?

The most anticipated NFL game this season ... Sunday Night Football. Tom Brady returns to Foxborough. 

Dow year-end: record high. That's the buzz on CNBC.

World-Wide Energy Production By Source, 1860 - 2019

Nice graphic. Link here.

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- September 30, 2021

Call it "Trumpicillin": need to fact-check. When do the trials begin?

Never forget! "Polarized" cap? What the heck is that?

: announces study on gun violence and how it affects Americans health. Does this tell me all I need to know about how serious the Center takes Covid? Until results are in, Dr Fauci recommends --

  • wearing a mask when using a gun to commit a crime;
  • put a mask over the gun when taken inside a bank;
  • double-mask AR-15's

Vaccinating: apparently the push to vaccinate kids didn't pan out. CDC now has huge push to vaccinate pregnant women. 

  • with 3.75 million women giving birth each year, that works out to about 1% of the US population. Anything to scare folks. Keep the narrative going.

Merck: to buy Acceleron for $180 / share in cash. Rare drug research. $12 billion deal.

Bed, Bath, And Beyond: down 28% pre-market. Warnings. Company and analysts blame problems on:

  • supply chain woes;
  • Covid;
  • rates headed higher;
  • worker shortage; 
  • cost of raw materials;
  • surging oil prices;
  • Evergrande; 
  • China;
  • Vietnam;
  • Afghanistan;
  • daylight savings time will end
  • but, apparently not management

Carmax: down 8%, pre-market. 

S&P, NASDAQ: higher for 3Q21

  • could post 6th quarterly gain

Jobs (yawn):

  • up 11,000 to 362,000 vs 330,000 expected
  • GDP, revised, 2Q: 6.7% vs prior 6.6%
  • 2Q21: pce price index: core inflation, 2Q: 6.1% vs prior estimate, 6.1%
  • ten year treasury: 1.538%

California bacon:

  • across the state, newspapers are reporting skyrocketing prices for bacon; none mention the new California law, Proposition 12, that will come into effect January 1, 2022; one link here;
  • pork producers appeal to US Supreme Court; link here;
  • how severe is the bill?
    • Prop. 12 requires each sow whose piglets are raised for uncooked cuts of pork sold in California – about 9% of North American sows – to have a minimum of 24 square feet of space. Because Prop. 12 applies only to sows, not to their offspring who are raised for meat, it will apply to well less than 1% of the 90 million North American hogs.

Hit and run: South Dakota attorney general reaches confidential settlement with widow. Link here.

  • deer wearing glasses; carrying flashlight;
  • hooves in passenger seat

European energy:

  • Sweden recently shut down two nuclear reactors, giving in to faux environmentalist;
  • country now firing up oil power plant to provide electricity: one bbl/hour; link here;
  • this is going on around the globe; helps explain the surge in price of oil;

Mu? all that hand-wringing earlier this year about the "mu variant"? Eradicated

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Investors, shale, link here, the usual suspects:

  • XOM, CVX
  • COP
  • EOG
  • PXD
  • OXY
  • CLR

Starbucks: increases dividend by about 10%; from 45 cents to 49 cents/share.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Chamath: I happened to see this interview live;

  • CNBC anchor dumbfounded;
  • "February, 2021: the Whale, Chamath went on CNBC to urge people to never bet against Tesla, or sell t their shares." HODL.
  • In the interview yesterday, he admitted he sold off his entire position in Tesla. 
  • said he needed the cash to buy something better
  • creep.

Word for the day: forecourt. That's what they call them in Britain.

Poster for the day: link here. NSFW.

Costs: the other day a reader asked why we were not seeing more drilling in the Bakken.
one of many reasons: link here; but I don't think this is the big reason for the Bakken

Covid-19: vaccinations provide stronger protection than natural immunity. Hmmm. Link here

China: further restricts power use amid widening energy crisis. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

Asian LNG: spot price rises to $200+ boe. Countries will now start burning oil at 1/3rd the cost. Transitory. This, too, shall pass. 

Peak demand? LOL:

Remember the name: Port of Fujairah. Link to Simon Watkins

Dividends: paying dividend today. 

  • UNP: $1.07
  • DVN: 38 cents
  • Hess: 25 cents
  • Ovintiv: 14 cents

Stagflation: link here, back to the "70's Show." 

  • read the comments, give me a break: interest rates, today: 0%; interest rates in the 70s: 14%;

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, updated data at COB:

Active Rigs2511576758

Two wells coming off confidential list:

Thursday, September 30, 2021: 33 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 224 for the year:

  • 37027, conf, Enerplus, Cello 149-94-02C-01H-TF, Mandaree, scout ticket not updated; huge well;
  • 30202, conf, Whiting, Klose Federal 21-27-1H, Glass Bluff, scout ticket not updated; nice well;

RBN Energy: renewable diesel buildout driven by low carbon fuels standards

With the UN’s Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in Glasgow just over a month away, it’s natural to reflect on the progress achieved since the Paris Agreement (signed at COP 21), which is approaching its sixth anniversary. In the past half decade, the world has taken tremendous strides toward decarbonization – not only in rhetoric, but in real and substantial investment. 
Green hydrogen and carbon capture are among the notable solutions many are pursuing to that end. But perhaps no green business has been in the spotlight as much recently as renewable diesel. Low-carbon fuel standards have spurred a lucrative renewable diesel market that refiners are lining up to access, with units being built and planned across North America. The nationwide buildout is being underwritten by the states that have enacted policies to induce low-carbon solutions, and while the Golden State is paramount among them, Californians are not alone. 
The largess being generated by those policies is so substantial that it will have an impact on and may incubate other low-carbon technologies that can be paired with renewable diesel to create even lower-carbon fuel sources and capture more of the credits that are ultimately driving the economics of the energy transition. In today’s RBN blog, we identify key manufacturing centers for low-carbon fuel supply growth, the at-times lengthy route the fuels may take to LCFS markets, and the economic incentive structure that justifies all those costs.