Locator: 48598HTR.
HTR: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to "Halftime Report" on CNBC.
Definitions (1):
- hard landing: Fed goes back to raising rates, time line -- through end of 2025
- no landing: Fed -- no more rate changes in 2024 / 2025
- soft landing: Fed continues to drop rates, time line -- through end of 2025
It sounds like a lot of folks are "mis-using" the terms "soft landing" and "no landing."
It appears some folks use this:
Definitions (2):
- hard landing: Fed goes back to raising rates, time line -- through end of 2025
- no landing: Fed continues to drop rates, time line -- through end of 2025
- soft landing: Fed -- no more rate changes in 2024 / 2025:
I prefer Definitions (1).
Still no talk about huge drivers:
- RMDs
- inter-generational wealth transfer
- DINKs now in their 60s
25-year-old in 1985 are now ... wait for it ... 64 years old. So much money.
Car prices collapsing. Link here. Folks focused on $100,000 Teslas and $100,000 pickup trucks and feel they are out of the car market for a new car. In fact, it's easy to find any number of makes/models in the $31,000 to $37,000 range. Three-year loans, free money, at 1.9%. Five-year loans not much worse. In fact, looking at monthly payments where interest rates play such a big role, it's hard justifying a used car at 9% interest vs a new car at 2%. Some hyperbole, but not much
"Generational opportunity" -- phrase used by Jensen Huang. In other words, folks in their 20's, 30's, and 40's may never see an investing opportunity like we see now. Again, Jensen's words, not mine.
LDCs: hard to fight "this stock." "This stock" being Nvidia.
Apple: "the Judge" has it exactly right. A lot of folks have been burned fighting the Apple story. Most notable: Carter Worth and Dan Nathan on "Fast Money," CNBC.
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Energy Transformation
Electrification continues.
Driven by the fourth industrial revolution.
$4 trillion between now and 2050.
Energy: the US has checked the "all-of-the-above" box -- wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear.
Utilities up almost 40% year to date (need to fact-check).
Power: GE Vernova, Vistra, Quanta Services, Eaton Corp PLC.
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The Fourth Industrial Revolution
AI in all its various forms.
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my
posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
