Friday, December 13, 2019

OPEC+ Cuts Help Operators Raise Production In North Dakota -- Helms-- December 13, 2019

See Director's Cut, October, 2019, data.

From S&P Global Platts: North Dakota oil output growth to improve moderately on OPEC + cuts -- state regulator. From the linked article:
Without a deeper OPEC+ cut, North Dakota production, which set a record of 1.52 million b/d in October, would likely have "flat lined" throughout 2020, Lynn Helms, director of North Dakota's Department of Mineral Resources, told reporters Friday.
Helms said that the decision will likely lead to an increase in capital available to producers.
"It was going to be a struggle just to match this 1.5 million b/d," Helms said. The OPEC+ decision "should result in small increments of production growth through the year 2020."
North Dakota's oil output in October was up more than 74,500 b/d from September and more than 37,300 b/d from August, when the previous monthly record was set.
Roughly 72% of oil produced in October was shipped out of the state by pipeline, 16% was shipped out by rail, 6% was trucked or railed to Canada, and 6% was refined in state, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority said Friday.

Oh, So Close -- $59.97 For WTI Earlier Today -- Settles Solidly Above $59; Great News: Whiting Has Five New Permits -- December 13, 2019

Sources: NYMEX oil settles just above $60/bbl. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5367514065

Five new permits, #37261 - #37265, inclusive:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Bully; Sanish;
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for a four-well Borseth pad in Bully oil field; section 15-148-99;
    • Whiting also has a permit for a Feehan well in Sanish oil field; section 9-153-92;
    • After cancelling so many permits, nice to see Whiting some five new permits -- go Whiting!
Three permits renewed:
  • Hunt (2): two Palermo MCNIC permits in Mountrail County
  • Petro-Hunt: one Hurinenko permit in Dunn County

CNBC -- The Glass Is Half Empty -- December 13, 2019

Glass is half empty. I can't believe the negativity on CNBC. LOL . Maybe I will write about it later, but not worth the time now. Oh, by the way, for the archives: the US House judiciary committee voted along party lines to send articles of impeachment to the entire house. Sort of reminds me of those old westerns, mob rule and lynchings. But that's okay. We always enjoyed those westerns and knew how everything would turn out. To some extent, the action by by the committee reminded me of the Three Stooges, in this case, Jerry Nadler (Moe); Adam Schiff (Larry); and, Nancy Pelosi (Curly). We're all hoping that Clint Eastwood shows up in the US Senate (probably too much to hope for). See first comment.

Consumer spending? I was just downtown doing some Christmas shopping -- yes, Don and Kathy -- I have found you the perfect gifts and they will be in mail tomorrow -- inshallah. LOL. The common theme downtown -- it's going to be a huge retail season.

Here's where we live in our little 900-square-foot hovel (and I say that with thoughts of how lucky we really are):
What do folks want? Today, ATT (T) announces that it will raise its quarterly dividend by 2% and will retire $100 million worth of stock in 1Q20, and shares actually fall. What do investors want? LOL. T is already paying 5.32%. What do investors want?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Tethered vehicle subsidy: no link. If interested, I'm sure it's easy to find. If Congress is able to pass another tax bill soon, it is likely that they will give Tesla and GM a nice gift. The 200,000-EV-sales-threshold will be raised to 600,000. Both Tesla and GM have sold more than 200,000 EVs so their federal incentives are phasing out. If a tax bill is passed, look for Congress to triple the number of EVs eligible for the incentive. What a racket.

Schwab: setting the stage to dominate the brokerage world -- Barron's. I said this was a top story for the week. This story is simply huge. Data points from the article:
  • the deal took regular Schwab employees by surprise
  • $26 billion deal
  • rivals say they were caught off guard
    • E*Trade CEO thought Ameritrade would buy E*Trade, so very surprising
  • when brokerages drove commissions to $0, Ameritrade shares fell precipitously, giving Schwab an opportunity to buy Ameritrade, rather than E*Trade; prior to the fall in share price, the deal could have been a $30-billion deal;
    • "nicely done, Schwab, you crushed Ameritrade's stock and then went back in and bought it"
  • assets under management:
    • Schwab: $3.25 trillion
    • Ameritrade: $1.3 trillion
  • branches:
    • Schwab: 365
    • Ameritrade: 360
  • active brokerage accounts:
    • Schwab: 12.1 million
    • Ameritrade: 12.0 million
  • combined:
    • assets under management: $5 trillion
    • brokerage accounts: 24 million
    • custody services for 14,500 RIAs, nearly $2 trillion in assets; 40% of the market (say what, regulators?)
  • 2018: Schwab brought in more new money than Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and UBS combined;
  • Robinhood Financial mentioned
  • Schwab derived just 6% of revenue from trading before commissions went to zero
  • Schwab's earnings began to be negatively impacted when the Fed cut rates earlier this year;
    • Schwab had not expected the Fed to cut rates;
  • Ameritrade's active trader and options platforms are considered top-notch; 
    • Schwab is landing a big pool of advisor accounts
    • Schwab also gets an infusion of up to $10 billion a year in deposits from TD Bank and Ameritrade customers for 10 years
  • first thought: did Buffett miss a whale?
  • more consolidation expected
  • another takeover target: E*Trade
  • if E*Trade weakens further, Schwab could take a stab at it
  • more at the link
By the way, what did BK do this week? Not a great week, but the past year has been nice. LOL. See disclaimer. I don't own any shares in BK but I know someone who is a long-time investor in BK.

Does "monthly retail sales" include money spent on gasoline? I believe so. Gasoline prices were down significantly in November.

Untethered: "Montana Skeptic" returns to social media. This guy must really, really suffer from Musk Derangement Syndrome (MDS).

Wow, wow, wow -- in our backyard -- in Southlake, TX: Ozeki Ramen & Sushi Izakaya is now open in downtown Southlake. Wow, wow, wow. Izakaya? A Japanese pub.

Flaring In The Reservation Getting Worse; October, 2019, Production Data Posted -- Director's Cut

Webinar posted; see comments.

See S&P Platts, link here

North Dakota crude oil and natural gas production for October, 2019: there will be two headline stories this month based on this:
  • first: production bounced back very, very nicely after a horrendous September due to flooding, too much rain;
  • second: flaring in the reservation; not only is it worse than the state in general, but it is much worse, and on top of that, the trend is worsening, not getting better --
natural gas capture:
  • statewide, captured: 82% (81% reported last month)
  • statewide, captured: 
    • October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day (preliminary)
    • September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
    • previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
    • FBIR Bakken:
      October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September) (75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)
A third, albeit a minor story: North Dakota officially produced more than 3 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas. That milestone appeared to have been broken in September, 2019, based on preliminary information, but it was revised downward, slightly, just less than 3 billion cfpd. This month, finally, a new milestone; 3 billion cubic feet per day, or approximately 500,00 boepd.

A fourth headline story that no one will report: North Dakota continues to hit new production records despite fewer and fewer rigs. Change in monthly production has much more to do with weather in North Dakota than with the rig count. 

Director's Cut: Data for October, 2019

Again, see disclaimer below.

Link here.

NDIC Director's Cuts are posted here

The Director's Cut
Data For October, 2019 
North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 

Crude oil production:

  • October, 2019, preliminary: 1,517,796 bopd -- all-time high
    • revenue forecast
  • September, 2019, final, 1,443,980 bopd -- very, very wet September that impacted oil fields
  • August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd (previous all-time high)
  • July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd (previous all-time high)
  • June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
  • month-over-month: a whopping increase of 73,816 bopd (October-September)
  • month-over-month: an increase of 5.1% (October-September)
Gas production:
  • October, 2019, preliminary: 3,070,616 MCF/day
    • 82% capture
  • September, 2019, final: 2,946,391 MCF/day (note -- fell below the 3-billion threshold previously reported)
  • August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
  • July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
  • June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day
BOE, September, preliminary:
  • natural gas:  3,070,616 MCF/day = 511,686 boe
  • crude oil: 1,517,796 bopd
  • total boe, preliminary for October, 2019: 2,029,480 boepd
  • total boe for September, 2019: 1,934,963 boepd 
  • month-over-month increase/decrease: 94,517boe
  • month-over-month: an increase of 4.9%
Producing wells:
  • October, 2019, preliminary: 16,157
  • September, 2019, final: 16,115
  • August, 2019, final: (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
  • June, 2019, 15,752
  • November, 2019: 79
  • October, 2019: 126
  • September, 2019: 92
  • August, 2019: 127
  • July, 2019: 141
  • June, 2019: 127
Rig count:
  • Today: 53 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
  • October: 59
  • September: 61
  • August: 62
  • July: 57
  • June: 63
Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

  • October, 2019, preliminary: 91
  • September, 2019, final: 112 (revised up from 94)
  • August, 2019, final: 102
  • July, 2019, final: 137
  • June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
  • May, 2019, 113 (final)
Gas capture:
  • statewide, captured: 82% (81% reported last month)
  • statewide, captured: 
    • October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day (preliminary)
    • September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
    • previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
    • FBIR Bakken:
      October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September)(75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)
Off line, to end of October, 2019: 2,568 -- about "average" for the Bakken --

Director's Cut Is Posted -- October, 2019, Data

Crude oil production, preliminary: 1,517,796 bopd -- all-time high.

Natural gas production: 3,070616 MCF/day -- all-time high.

Natural gas capture:  82% (unchanged from September)

  • November, 2019: 79
  • October, 2019: 126
  • September, 2019: 92
Wells off line for operational reasons:
  • inactive: 1,683 (vs 2,104 in September, due to very, very wet conditions)
  • DUCs: 885 (vs 916 in September)
  • 16,157, preliminary (16,115 in September)

Keeping Texas Great -- Austin To Be Ford's HQ For Self-Driving Command Center -- December 13, 2019

Link here.
Ford is steering into Austin in a big way, as the Texas capital is poised be the first of Ford’s three self-driving car markets to have a command center.
t is impossible to overstate how much is moving into Texas.


Williston's Economic Development Wins Award -- December 13, 2019

For Numerologists Who Follow The Dow -- December 13, 2019

From a reader, early this morning -- and I mean really, really early this morning, like 12:16 a.m.:
I'm watching the National Finals Rodeo on TV and just glanced at the CNN Money site.

Premarket Dow at 28,259.

Exactly 10,000 points over Trump's start at election - 18,259.
Something tells me that CNBC won't note this milestone.

Good luck to all.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 


Signs off on most recent China-US tariffs agreement. Market continues rally, though a bit choppy.

Also being reported: Trump may skip presidential debates next summer/autumn. Probably a bluff to finally agree to one. Regardless of what he does, this is Trump: never quits negotiating. Anything.

Head Fake? China Says It Hasn't "Agreed" To "The Deal" -- December 13, 2019

Head fake: prepare for market volatility.

Politics: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Dems --
  • nothing has so united the GOP as this farce 
    • across the board -- never-Trumper GOP reps are furious
    • even some Dems are getting cold feet
    • remember: most important to Pelosi: bipartisan vote, meaning at least one Republican would vote for impeachment; that may not happen; some Dems may actually vote against impeachment
  • cathartic: this is really, really needed -- once and for all these attempts to get rid of a duly-elected president might come to an end; nah. But it's sort of like the last bit of ammo for the Trump haters; by Valentine's Day it's all history; Nadler's last stand;
  • it certainly lessens the stain of impeachment going forward; won't mean much going forward for future presidents; red badge of courage;
  • once this is all over, his Dem opponent will keep saying that President Trump was impeached; much of American will think the Dem opponent is "crazy." They will say Trump was not impeached; a lot of folks don't understand concept of impeachment
  • at worse: "Hey, the president was impeached." "Yeah, and found not guilty. Just like Bill Clinton." 
North Korea: am I missing something? We haven't heard a peep out of Rocket Man in the last couple of days, and just last week he said he was preparing a "Christmas present" for president Trump.

  • WTI: trending toward $60
  • Dow: could open up 100 points
  • all three major indices could hit all-time highs
  • no one ever seems to talk about the Russell 2000: yesterday's close -- 1,632; 52-week range, 1,654
  • AAPL: pre-market trading, up another half a percent; up $1.52; could open near $273
  • TSLA: could also open up another $2.62; up 0.73%; trading near $362; Jim Cramer has pretty much said, "go all in" -- that was my takeaway when I saw him "live" (on CNBC) two nights ago
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

  • EW: up another dollar
  • OXY: up 16 cents but still well below $40; and way below $64 where it was just before announcing the Anadarko deal (if I recall correctly)
  • CVX: up very, very slightly, but nice to see
Fractional shares:
I had a leisurely conversation with my Schwab broker yesterday, VP-Financial Consultant; talked about a lot of things; forgot to ask about "Robinhood" and fractional shares. Apparently Schwab will also offer that -- fractional shares. Possibly limiting it to certain stocks. But get this, link here:
Robinhood will allow customers to buy as little as one millionth of a share, with purchases rounded to the nearest penny.
One millionth of a share:
  • 0.1 share: one-tenth
  • 0.01 share: one-hundredth
  • 0.001 share: one-thousandth
  • 0.0001: one-ten-thousandth
  • 0.00001: one-hundred-thousandth
  • 0.000001: one-millionth
BRK-A: $338,800 / share
one-millionth of a share: 34 cents
one-ten-thousandth of a share: $34
Of course there's little reason to buy BRK-A when "B" is available. But Amazon, others.
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.
Gold: in the "old"  days I would buy one-ounce gold bullion. Now, one can buy 1/10th ounce at a time. 

MIght We See WTI Hit $60 Today? No Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today -- December 13, 2019

Santa Claus rally to continue: Dow futures up strong again. Be prepared for bad news, thought Kudlow said the date to watch was December 15, 2019 -- Sunday.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

How does this NOT affect the GDP? Chevron to go ahead with $5.7 billion deepwater project. At Rigzone
  • it's called the "Anchor project"
  • US Gulf of Mexico
  • the industry's first deepwater high-pressure development to win a final investment decision
  • $5.7 billion: just to develop the initial phase
  • Green Canyon area approx 140 miles offshore Louisiana; water depth: 5,000 feet
  • a seven-well subsea development and a semi-submersible floating production unit (FPU)
  • boe resources exceed 440 million bbls
  • Stage 1: 75,0000 bopd; 28 million cfpd
  • to put that in perspective, initial production of a good well in the Bakken is 30,000 bbls per month and declines fairly quickly
  • 440 million x $50 = $22 billion
  • JV: CVX, 63%; Total E&P USA, Inc, 37%
  • $6 billion / 440 million = $14 / bbl
Breakevens: projects anticipating breakeven prices above $60/bbl probably not economical "in the next decade" -- Rystad Energy via Rigzone.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5367514065

No wells are coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: how global prices drive US LNG cargo destinations, part 4.
U.S. LNG cargoes’ ability to reach different destinations has become increasingly important for the global market as more liquefaction trains continue to come online, oversupply conditions worsen, and international price spreads have shrunk. Earlier this week, Freeport LNG’s first train began commercial service, marking the sixth U.S. liquefaction and export facility to start commercial operations. About 30% of U.S. long-term contracts for currently operating or commissioning liquefaction trains are held by global portfolio players — i.e., offtakers with large international portfolios and the ability to shift cargoes around the world as prices move. And destination flexibility doesn’t end there, as the other types of offtakers also have shown an increased willingness to divert or even re-sell cargoes in the spot market to better take advantage of shifting price spreads. Today, we continue a series on U.S. LNG export trends, this time focusing on how global prices impact cargo destinations.
Two new "codes" to know regarding LNG pricing:
  • NBP: UK's National Balancing Point; and,
  • JKM: Japan-Korea Marker