Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Four Stories On Tap -- Running Out Of Blogging Time -- More Later -- December 14, 2022

Links only:

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The Stories

Uranium, Clintons:

  • I'm only going to add one link; link here;
  • readers that know, know:
  • nothing more needs to be said
  • posted.

Crude oil supply adjustment

  • "Focus on Fracking" noted this months (years?) ago; it's only getting "worse" -- raising questions about the accuuracy of the weekly EIA petroleum report.

China healthcare system floudering / foundering due to Covid-19?

  • I think folks forget why "we" originally shut down the economy

Covid variants:


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The Atlantic Story On Covid

The Atlantic story was written before Evusheld was taken off the market. Today, CNBC reported that the FDA took Evushel (Eli Lilly) off the market leaving only one in this sector: bebteloovimab (AstraZeneca).

For the first couple of years of the coronavirus pandemic, the crisis was marked by a succession of variants that pummeled us one at a time.
The original virus rapidly gave way to D614G, before ceding the stage to Alpha, Delta, Omicron, and then Omicron’s many offshoots.
But as our next COVID winter looms, it seems that SARS-CoV-2 may be swapping its lead-antagonist approach for an ensemble cast: Several subvariants are now vying for top billing.
In the United States, BA.5—dominant since the end of spring—is slowly yielding to a slew of its siblings, among them BA.4.6, BF.7, BQ.1, and BQ.1.1; another subvariant, XBB, threatens to steal the spotlight from overseas.
Whether all of these will divvy up infections in the next few months, or whether they’ll be pushed aside by something new, is still anyone’s guess. Either way, the forecast looks a little grim.
None of the new variants will completely circumvent the full set of immune defenses that human bodies, schooled by vaccines or past infections, can launch. Yet all of them seem pretty good at dodging a hefty subset of our existing antibodies.For anyone who gets infected, such evasions could make the difference between asymptomatic and feeling pretty terrible. And for the subset of people who become sick enough to need clinical care, the consequences could get even worse.
Some of our best COVID treatments are made from single antibodies tailored to the virus, which may simply cease to work as SARS-CoV-2 switches up its form.
Past variants have already knocked out several such concoctions—among them, REGEN-COV, sotrovimab, and bamlanivimab/etesevimab—from the U.S. arsenal.
The only two left are bebtelovimab, a treatment for people who have already been infected, and Evusheld, a crucial supplement to vaccination for those who are moderately or severely immunocompromised; both are still deployed in hospitals countrywide.
But should another swarm of variants take over, these two lone antibody therapies could also be obsolete within months, if not weeks.
“It seems like the writing is on the wall,” says Erin McCreary, an infectious-disease pharmacist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. “I live constantly low-key worried that I’m not going to have an active therapy for my patients, and I won’t be able to help them.”
All of this bodes poorly for this winter and beyond. In the near term, millions of immunocompromised people could be left without viable options either to keep SARS-CoV-2 at bay or to temper its blaze once an infection begins to burn. And that loss would set a troubling precedent for seasons to come. The business end of the virus “is now adapting so rapidly that I don’t know how it’s going to be possible for monoclonals to keep up,” says Jeanne Marrazzo, an infectious-disease physician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Experts may need to revamp the strategies they use to bring new therapies to market—or find themselves, once again, in a serious bind.
“I worry,” Marrazzo told me, “that we’re on a razor’s edge.”

GM: Three New Battery Plants Planned -- $2.5 Billion -- Deccember 14, 2022

This may be old news. I may have blogged about it before. I forget.

From WXYZ, Detroit ABC, GM joint venture gets $3.5 billion load to build three battery plants, including one in Michigan. 

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Gasoline Demand

Link here.

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California -- Electricity Demand .... And Cost

Link here.

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GDPNow

Link here.

Verizon Teams Up With Netflix in Push to Become Streaming Middleman -- WSJ -- December 14, 2022

Streaming wars.

Add another one to the mix: Verizon teams up with Netflix in push to become a streaming middleman.

Other non-streaming companies trying to attract new subscribers through streaming marketplaces:

  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • YouTube

If one were to list these four and ask for the outlier, I would think Amazon would be seen as the outlier:

  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • YouTube
  • Verizon

This leads to the next question: what other "subscription" businesses with strong on-line presence might add streaming? Here is a short list:

  • Walmart
  • Target
  • Costco
  • Yahoo
  • Google (yes, I know)
  • Twitter

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Meghan And Harry

Not in a million years would I have guessed this. Link here.

WTI Breaches $77, Two New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed; Seven DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 14, 2022

Breathlessly reporting: Guyana-Suriname Basin could be the world's last great offshore oil boom.

  • this basin is tracked here;
    • discovered by ExxonMobil
    • 11 billion bbls in the Stabroek Block offshore (recently revised upward), recoverable
      • one of as many as 30 blocks
    • all blocks: ~ 20 billion bbls
  • to put in perspective:
    • 10 years x 1 million bopd x 365 days / year = 4 billion bbls (rounded up) --Bakken
    • 10 years x 5 million bopd x 365 days / year = 20 billion bbls (rounded up) -- Permian

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

JPow / Fed: raised the "prime rate, 50 basis points, now 4.25 to 4.50%, prime rate.

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $77.54.

Natural gas: $6.564.

Two new permits, #39491 - #39492, inclusive:

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Squires (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for a Ricky-Lee well and a Anseth well, NWNW 20-155-103,
      • one to be sitd 340 FNL and 375 FWL; and, 
      • the other, 340 FNL and 408 FWL

Ten peermits reneweed:

  • Petroshale (5): all Tahu permits; all in McKenzie County
  • Hunt (4): one Nichols permit and thee Palermo permits, all in Mountrail County;
  • Slawson: a Ripper Federal permit in Mountrail County

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38239, 3,625, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-11HLW,
  • 38244, 2,128, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-3H,
  • 38245, 4,611, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-4H,
  • 38246, 2,913, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-14H,
  • 38248, 2,291, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-15H,
  • 36513, 40 (no typo), Crescent Point, CPEUSC Austin 4-17-20-158N-99W-MBH,
  • 36519, 176 (no typo), Crescent Point, CPEUSC Austin 7-17-20-158N-99W-MBH-LL;

JPow: Here We Go -- December 14, 2022

Here it is: raised 50 bp.

  • 4.25 - 4.50%.

Outlook: hawkish.

  • will go above 5%
  • that's higher than previously telegraphed
  • and, higher for longer

Dow:

  • just prior to the announcement: Dow was up 80 points
  • now: trending down; flat to very, very slightly positive
  • five minutes later: Dow goes negative

WTI:

  • up 2.85%
  • up $2.15
  • trading at: $77.54


EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- December 14, 2022

The report, link here:

  • a huge build: inventories increased by 10.2 million bbls despite the Keystone being shut down;
  • US crude oil inventories are only 6% below the five-year average;
  • imports (yawn)
  • refiners operating at 92.2% capacity; dropped back a bit
  • distillate inventories also increased; still about 8% below the five-year average
  • jet fuel product supplied was up 5.5%

WTI: after report released

  • pretty much unchanged compared to opening numbers, before report released
  • corroborates API's numbers from yesterday
  • up 1.55% for the day; up $1.17; trading at $76.56.

Rambling Notes On Defense Budgets For US And Russia -- A Meaningless Inquiry -- But Procrastinating Before Going Biking -- December 14, 2022

I am quite aware that to compare the US economy with the Russian economy is beyond crazy. 

Quick: find Russia in the chart below.

Hint: it's less than Italy's. It's about the same as Netherlands and Norway combined.  

But it's still interesting to compare the economies and some line items.

Russia will budget 30% of its entire national budget fight the war in Ukraine. Thirty percent.

Quick: US DOD budget -- the entire DOD budget as percent of the US budget?

National deficits this year as a percent of GDP?

During the height of the Cold War with the Soviet Union US defense spending fluctuated at around 10 percent of GDP. At the height of the Vietnam War in 1968 defense spending was 10 percent of GDP. Link here.

Note: "defense spending" and DOD budget are two separate line items.  

This may (or may not) be a better look at US defense spending.

US federal deficit as percent of GDP: around 5% and dropping.

President Reagan understood all this.

CA ISO -- December 14, 2022

The Biden doctrine: no more drilling.

Link here.

Dashboards -- December, 2022

EIA dashboards:



Inflation -- December 14, 2022

Link here.

They Forgot About India -- Peak Oil Demand Nowhere In Sight -- December 14, 2022

Updates

December 15, 2022: link here.

Original Post

Peak oil demand nowhere in sight.

Link here

Link here.

Despite an expected fourth-quarter contraction of global oil demand by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the same period of 2021, recent data on consumption in non-OECD regions has pointed to more resilient demand than expected earlier.

The agency now sees global oil demand growing by 2.3 million bpd this year, up by 140,000 bpd compared to the growth expected in last month’s report. Demand growth in 2023 is expected at 1.7 million bpd, an upward revision of 100,000 bpd compared to the November estimates. Next year, global oil demand is set to reach 101.6 million bpd.

D5S -- Remembering All The Pundits Who Said The Sanctions Wouldn't Work -- That China / India Would Buy All That Russian Oil -- December 14, 2022

Baseline data, prior to D5S.

Link here:

Lower oil prices and steeper discounts for Russian oil sent Russia’s oil revenues down in November despite the highest export volumes since April this year.
Last month, total oil exports out of Russia rose by 270,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October to 8.1 million bpd in November, pushed up by higher diesel exports
Russian diesel exports increased by 300,000 bpd to 1.1 million bpd in November, two months before the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian products.
Total Russian exports in November stood at their highest levels since April 2022, the IEA said. However, Russia’s oil export revenues fell by $700 million to $15.8 billion due to wider discounts on Russian crude and lower international crude oil prices. Russian oil prices saw steeper declines in November.
Urals in Northwest Europe fell by nearly $30 per barrel to $43 a barrel by early December, well below the $60 per barrel price cap finally agreed by G7, Australia, and the EU.



Energy Today -- December 14, 2022

Irony: the Joe Biden administration is anxiously awaiting TC to re-open the Keystone. Partial re-opening any day now; full re-opening by Christmas. Maybe. 

With oil melting up, pre-market:

  • DVN: up 0.5%:
  • CVX: up 0.25%;
  • MPC: up 0.5%;

Javier Blas today:

In energy and commodities, there’s stuff that’s always at least 10 years away. Fusion energy is one; asteroid mining is another. And so is peak oil demand. The problem is that a decade goes by, the prediction doesn’t come true, the goalposts are moved further out, and everyone forgets about the old predictions.

Don’t get me wrong: one day, they will come true, and I’ll have to eat my words. It will be a great celebration. But for now, in the realm of the present, things aren’t going as many hoped.

Let’s focus on oil consumption peaking, perhaps the most likely of all the “it’s 10 years away” stuff to ultimately happen.

For now, if a peak in oil demand is near, it’s not showing in any contemporaneous data or reliable short- and medium-term forecasts. Only long-term models — rather than forecasts — point to a peak. Everything else shows steady-as-it-goes consumption.

Take the International Energy Agency’s short-term oil market report. Earlier today, it said demand will climb to almost 104 million barrels a day by the end of 2023, well above the previous peak of 102 million barrels set in mid-2019. That’s even though commuting — a huge source of gasoline and diesel demand in both the US and Europe — has changed forever, with work-from-home set to stay, at least partially, in many white-collar professions.

The IEA forecasts global oil demand growing next year by a hefty 1.7 million barrels a day — despite exorbitant prices, rising interest rates, sharply slowing economic growth and the lingering impact of Covid-19 in Asia.

To be sure, all the data since 2020 is polluted by the effect of the pandemic on travel patterns. But still, it’s difficult to see any sign pointing to a zenith. To achieve the Holy Grail of peak oil demand, first the world needs to show signs that consumption growth is starting to slow down — and quite materially. That’s yet to happen.

--Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion

Bloomberg's chart of the day:

 Let's see how long those "full" LNG tanks last.

North Dakota Closed Until Further Notice -- December 14, 2022

This pretty much says it all:

North Dakota roads:

North Dakota today:

North Dakota in 1966; I was 15 years old.


This Was Not On My Bingo Card -- More Expensive To Charge EVs Overnight Than Fill-Up With Gasoline -- December 14, 2022

SRE "never" trades pre-market. Today it's up 1.6%; up $2.69; trading at $167.35 (it's a $124-stock) -- pre-market.

ISO CA: link here -- -- $390 / mWh -- overnight -- EV charging a disaster --  from RBN Energy below

Last week, even as natural gas day-ahead prices went negative in the Permian’s Waha Hub in West Texas, spot prices at northern California’s PG&E Citygate last week traded at a record-smashing $55/MMBtu, according to the NGI Daily Gas Price Index — close to 100x the Waha price.

The media: The LA Times explains the high price -- drought, sudden winter storm, etc., but never mentions the Biden energy doctrine: "No more drilling; ban fracking; and shut down pipelines.  

NaturalGasIntel: from a couple of days ago. Archived.

Against a backdrop of mostly mild weather across the Lower 48, winter unleashed its fury on the West Coast a bit early this season. The frigid temperatures and unusually heavy precipitation have fueled natural gas demand at a time when storage inventories are low, a drought has reduced hydro-electric power supplies and regional utilities are having trouble receiving coal deliveries.

The result: historically high natural gas prices that have surged to levels not seen since the summer of 2018. The surge in prices has spread across the Pacific Northwest, farther south throughout California and inland across the Rockies.

On Thursday, Northern California’s PG&E Citygate recorded spot natural gas prices as high as $36.00/MMBtu. SoCal Citygate cash reached a $33.00 high, while Malin hit $32.00. And that only proved to be batting practice.

On Friday, the highest price on the West Coast hit $55.00, with offers up to $60.00.

“I’ve seen prices spike before, but over a short period of time,” said Michael Wiliamson. His consulting firm Williamson Energy purchases wholesale natural gas for end-use customers in California. “This sustained period of high prices has never happened before. There’s a lot of different things going on, and they’re all falling at the same time.”

Then the writer blames everything but the Biden doctrine.

See RBN Energy today:

This is just the latest instance of severe gas supply shortages and constraint-driven price disruptions out West in recent years (even ignoring Winter Storm Uri and the Deep Freeze of February 2021). Moreover, it’s arguably taking progressively more benign market events to trigger similar or worse shortages. What’s going on? In today’s RBN blog, we break down the factors driving the latest Western U.S. gas price spikes.

East Coast / West Coast -- EV Overnight Charging -- A Disaster -- Is Anyone Paying Attention -- The Mainstream Media Ignores It --December 14, 2022

ISO NE: link here -- $360 / mWh -- overnight -- EV charging a disaster

ISO CA
: link here -- -- $390 / mWh -- overnight -- EV charging a disaster --  from RBN Energy below

Last week, even as natural gas day-ahead prices went negative in the Permian’s Waha Hub in West Texas, spot prices at northern California’s PG&E Citygate last week traded at a record-smashing $55/MMBtu, according to the NGI Daily Gas Price Index — close to 100x the Waha price.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 42.

WTI: $76.00.

Natural gas: $6.635.

Thursday, December 15, 2022: 37 for the month, 146 for the quarter, 690 for the year.
38938, conf, CLR, Roxy 6-31H,
38931, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 5-33-4TFH,
38214, conf, WPX, Two Shields Butte 13-21 10H,

Wednesday, December 14, 2022: 34 for the month, 143 for the quarter, 687 for the year.
38930, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 4-33-4TFH,
38863, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 3-20H,
36899, conf, Bowline/Nine Point, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-7H,
35527, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-32-16H3U,

RBN Energy: natural gas blowouts signal worsening westbound supply constraints. Archived.

Last week, even as natural gas day-ahead prices went negative in the Permian’s Waha Hub in West Texas, spot prices at northern California’s PG&E Citygate last week traded at a record-smashing $55/MMBtu, according to the NGI Daily Gas Price Index — close to 100x the Waha price.
Other hubs west of the Continental Divide also surged to record levels, while markets just east and north of there were largely unruffled — a sure sign of bottlenecks for moving gas into West Coast markets. This is just the latest instance of severe gas supply shortages and constraint-driven price disruptions out West in recent years (even ignoring Winter Storm Uri and the Deep Freeze of February 2021). Moreover, it’s arguably taking progressively more benign market events to trigger similar or worse shortages. What’s going on? In today’s RBN blog, we break down the factors driving the latest Western U.S. gas price spikes.