Tuesday, January 21, 2020

The Market -- Futures -- January 21, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

After-hours: IBM and Netflix certainly suggest that the market is not getting ahead of itself.

Bored: I don't think there's anything else worth blogging about, so time to do some reading.

The Book Page

The Tyrannosaur Chronicles: The Biology of the Tyrant Dinosaurs, David Hone, c. 2016.

I've started this book once before. I did not particularly care for the style of writing at that time but I thought I would give it a second chance.

No New Permits -- January 21, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5367583847

One permit renewed:
  • Murex: a Patricia Ann permit in Williams County
Two permits canceled:
  • Petro-Hunt: two Clark Griswold Federal permits in McKenzie County

UK Going To Get Colder? -- The Guardian -- January 21, 2020

It's no longer the Gulf Stream. It's the North Atlantic Drift. The [London] Guardian.

EIA -- Drilling Productivity Report -- January 2020 Report Released

EIA's drilling productivity report released. Bakken with another increase of 39 bbls/day/rig -- new wells -- oil, January, 2020, to February, 2020
  • Bakken: 39 bopd
  • Permian: 2 bopd
  • Eagle Ford: 22 bopd
DUCs by region -- November, 2019, to December, 2019
  • Bakken: jump 18, to 813
  • Permian: jump 14, to 3,612
  • Eagle Ford: a decline of 15, to 1,427

Boeing Stock Trading Halted -- Pending News -- Barrons -- January 21, 2020

From last night:
Boeing. Boeing 737 Max -- it simply gets worse and worse. Software fails; company seeking $10 billion load (twice what analysts originally told); won't fly until June, 2020, at the earliest. I will be surprised to see the 737 Max fly this year.
Boeing stock trading halted, pending news -- 1:45 p.m. CT --

Not until July? Investor's Business Daily.

Quotation Of The Day

From Carpe Diem:

Libya And Germany: Maybe They Need A Bigger Table -- January 21, 2020

I guess if I were negotiating with an "increasingly erratic general who shows no sign of relenting," I would want a big table between that general and me, also.

MRO Reports A Huge Well In Reunion Bay -- January 21, 2020

The well:
  • 35331, 6,028, MRO, Dietrich USA 11-2TFH, 45 stages; 8.5 million lbs; Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 148K 11/19; 
    • neighboring wells, off line: #22455, #21199, #21457, #25544, #21369
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

CLR's Kuhn Well In Camp Oil Field Back Online; Jump In Production -- January 21, 2020

The well:
  • 22158, 996, CLR, Kuhn 2-12H, Camp, t5/12; cum 476K 11/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Rystad Energy On US Shale And The "Red Queen" -- January 2020

From Rystad Energy, posted earlier.

Rystad Analysis on the "Red Queen" effect -- the number of new wells needed to maintain current production and the actual number of new wells:

WTI Goes Below $58; We Should See As Many As 21 Wells Report Out Of North Dakota Today -- January 21, 2020

Tea leaves: reading scores of tabloid articles over the weekend leads me to one conclusion -- Harry really stepped in it. After signing agreement worked out by the Queen, his dad and his lawyers, Harry now says that's not what he wanted. But he's off to Canada. A man without a job, without a country, without a clue. What he says he misses most? His brother. Wow.

Libya: irrelevant.  One million bopd taken out of production and Brent? Drops 1.43%; trading near $64. WTI? Below $58.

Groundhog day: from April 11, 2017:
Libya: I generally don't blog about (or, for that matter, care about) Libya but this was the top story over at Rigzone today and the headline got my attention: Libya halts Sharara oil loadings as biggest field shuts down. Now the question is: why did the field shut down? I assume Libya is complying with OPEC decision to cut production. LOL. Data points:
  • Libya declares force majeure over this stoppage
  • unclear why the pipeline was shut down
  • Sharara was pumping 200,000 bopd
WTI: futures. Down slightly. Obviously Libya force majeure has no effect on the oil market.
Iraq: BP pulls out of Iraq's Kirkuk oil field as expansion plans stall.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5667583847

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, January 21, 2020: 74 for the month; 74 for the quarter, 74 for the year:
  • 36289, drl, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3H3A, Mandaree,
  • 34989, 681, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-7H, Painted Woods, t8/19; cum 78K 11/19;
Monday, January 20, 2020: 72 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 72 for the year:
  • 36288, drl, Rimrock Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3HA, Mandaree,
  • 36154, 1,825, Whiting, Martell 34-36HU, Glass Bluff, t7/19; cum 66K 11/19;
  • 33155, SI/NC, BR, Mathistad 7-8-35 MBH, Croff, no production data,
Sunday, January 19, 2020: 69 for the month; 69 for the quarter; 69 for the year:
  • 362728, drl, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HTL, Spotted Horn,
  • 35880, 532, Whiting, Meiers 12-17-3H, Sanish, t9/19; cum 41K 11/19;
  • 35015, 738, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-8H, Painted Woods, t8/19; cum 72K 11/19;
  • 33154, SI/NC, BR, Croff 8-1-2 UTFH, Croff, no production data,
Saturday, January 18, 2020: 65 for the month; 65 for the quarter; 65 for the year:
  • 36199, drl, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HD, Spotted Horn,
  • 35996, 1,533, Whiting, Martell 34-36-3H, Glass Bluff, t7/19; cum 61K 11/19;
  • 35904, 2,768, CLR, Honolulu 6-15H, Indian Hill, t7/19; cum 123K 11/19; 43K month;
  • 35506, 2,046, CLR, Weisz 8-11H, Pleasant Valley, t11/19; cum 38K 11/19; a 38K month;
  • 34175, 1,286, CLR, Ravin 7-1H, Dimmick Lake, t8/19; cum 112K 11/19; a 36K month;
  • 32780, SI/NC, BR, Cleoff 8-1-2 MBH-ULW, Croff, no production data,
Friday, January 17, 2020: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter; 59 for the year;
  • 36397, SI/NC, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 4-24-11-1HU, Mandaree, no production data,
  • 36200, drl, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HZ, Spotted Horn,
  • 35687, SI/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1B TFH, North Fork, no production data,
  • 35686, SI/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1A MBH, North Fork, no production data,
  • 35505, 1,620, CLR, Weisz 7-11H1, Pleasant Valley, t11/19; cum 29K 11/19;
  • 34826, drl, Hess, HA-Nelson A-152-95-3427-9, Hawkeye,
  • 32779, SI/NC, BR, Veederstad 8-8-35UTFH-ULW, Blue Buttes, no production data,
RBN Energy: will Canadian producers increase gas-focused spending, supplies?
Canadian oil and natural gas producers were dancing very much to the same tune as their U.S. counterparts in 2019: reduce capital spending, live within cash flow and improve returns to investors. The only major difference for Canadian gas producers is that they were forced to dance even faster due to abysmal natural gas pricing during the summer of 2019, which cast a very negative pall over the whole sector for the remainder of last year. Although the focus on spending restraint, cash flow and returns has not changed for these producers upon entering 2020, there are encouraging signals that Canadian gas pricing will be materially improved this year, especially during the summer months, supporting higher cash flows and a cautious expansion in capital spending. Today, we examine the drivers behind what might increase capital spending by gas producers and lead to an increase in supplies.