The Energy And Market Page, T+80 -- April 11, 2017

Updates

April 13, 207: this is why I generally don't blog about (or, for that matter, care about) Libya: today, it is being reported that Libya's Wafa oil and gas field reopens; force majeure lifted. Libya's daily ups and downs are simply background noise.

Original Post

Break-even prices: consider the source (contributor: Art Berman). Read the few comments. Archived.

Libya: I generally don't blog about (or, for that matter, care about) Libya but this was the top story over at Rigzone today and the headline got my attention: Libya halts Sharara oil loadings as biggest field shuts down. Now the question is: why did the field shut down? I assume Libya is complying with OPEC decision to cut production. LOL. Data points:

• Libya declares force majeure over this stoppage
• unclear why the pipeline was shut down
• Sharara was pumping 200,000 bopd

WTI: futures. Down slightly. Obviously Libya force majeure has no effect on the oil market.

Update: the production for this Bakken well was posted yesterday. Overnight a reader sent me a note providing some background regarding a neighboring frack. The 8,808 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 15,000 bbls over a 31-day month which is the best production this well has ever had. The first full month of production after its frack in late 2011 was 14,500 bbls, and then dropped, consistent with the well-known Bakken decline.

North Sea: decommissioning costs are looming on a scale not seen before anywhere in the world. An estimated 500 fixed installations must be removed from the North Sea, along with more than 500 subsea production systems. The plugging and abandoning of more than 10,000 wells is also anticipated. 

For Those Who Thought This Would Be Over In A Week -- Libya

Updates

September 11, 2012: US ambassador to Libya killed. The administration has changed the story so many times; not linked. This link is fascinating: 

When terrorists attacked the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, on Sept. 11 of this year and killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans, there were no U.S. Marines deployed in Libya to defend U.S. diplomats, diplomatic facilities and classified information and equipment. However, says the State Department, a Marine Security Detachment was deployed on that day to carry out those duties at the U.S. Embassy in Bridgetown, Barbados. 

September 4, 2011: Is it over yet? Kadafi still on the run. 

August 14, 2011: Timeline for those who thought this would be over in a week. 

August 6, 2011: I remember getting a comment when the "Libyan thing" first broke out that "this would be over in a week and Kadafi was toast." The war continues, the rebels fight among themselves, and now today it is reported that Kadafi takes a key town back from the rebels and launches a new offensive. 

July 28, 2011: For those who thought the Libya "war" would be over "in a week," there are now confirmed reports that the rebel leader has been assassinated. There are rumors that there are internal "rifts" among the rebels. 

July 4, 2011: Libyan rebel leader -- ok, ok, ok -- Kadafi can stay in Libya. "As long as he resigns and remains under supervision." Let's see -- this all started in March, 2011 -- haven't heard from those who said this would be over in a week. 

April 16, 2011: The reason the US got involved in Libya, we were told, was to avert a humanitarian crisis. It looks like the results have just been the opposite: Kadafi is now using heavy weapons on civilians. Had the US not intervened when it did, the rebel uprising would have been shut down. One can argue whether there would have been a humanitarian disaster at that point, and at Kadafi's hands, but there is no question that things have turned out much worse than expected. When US air strikes began, "anonymous" wrote to say what many thought: "this would be over in a week and Kadafi was toast."  Kadafi may still be toast, but it certainly is not over in a week, and the humanitarian toll will be much greater than had we just stayed out. And some say the war is costing the US $2 billion/day.

April 7, 2011: NATO now fears a protracted, "never-ending" civil war. 

April 4, 2011: US pulls back its air force; then extends the air war for two days; then pulls it back again. Now Kadafi says he is staying but open for change. "Free" elections to determine if Libyans want him or someone else. Whoever thought this would be over in a week and Kadafi would be toast -- well, it's been since the end of February, and now it's April. And Kadafi looks to be calling the shots. There is talk his son will take over. 

March 17, 2011: Day 31. Kadafi surrounds last rebel outpost: there will be no mercy. UN scheduled to vote later on military action against Kadafi. President Obama preparing to leave to party in Rio.

March 14, 2011: The fourth week? And Libyan forces now have the upper hand. The US government won't take unilateral action. Europe, NATO, and UN still talking. Philosophically they want Kadafi out of there; practically, they want cheaper and accessible sweet oil. The discussion will be interesting to follow. Ya wanna bet which wins out: philosophy or reality? Mubarak was thrown under the bus in less than 72 hours by America; four weeks into the Libya thing, "we're" still looking for a bus.

March 7, 2011: well, the Libyan thing continues. What is this? The third week? So much for the thought that this would be over in a week (a reader, not me). Oil is up another $2 overnight, about $106 now.

March 3, 2011: so much for a quick end to the Libyan issue. Even analysts expect the loss of oil production from Libya to be lengthy. Who knows, it might be over tomorrow, but the situation suggests otherwise.

As a result of the standoff, the analyst predicted that, “An extended period of conflict—with commensurately lengthy disruption to oil supply—is looking even more likely than before.” 

March 2, 2011, morning: price of oil "surges" another buck; over $100/bbl; conflicting reports regarding who is in control of oil fields

March 1, 2011, evening: Gadhafi forces retake towns near Libyan capital.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he ordered two ships into the Mediterranean, including the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge, and he is sending 400 Marines to the vessel to replace some troops that left recently for Afghanistan. [Just the other day, SecDef Gates said, “In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his  head examined.'"]

March 1, 2011, evening: WTI oil futures continue to rise, now solidly over $100.  

March 1, 2011, morning: Oil price spikes $2.00, retraces; solidly over $99 as Mideast continues to smolder, and in some cases burn.

Oil prices climbed Tuesday as Iran clamped down on anti-government protesters and unrest in the Middle East threatened to keep energy prices high for months to come.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery gained $1.80 at $98.76 per barrel at midday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude gained $1.92 at $113.72 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

February 28, 2011: "Oil Rises Toward $98 as Traders Eye Libyan Exports." And so it goes, nine days into the Libyan issue.

Original Post

For those who thought this would be over in a week, and for those who thought Saudi could step up to the plate and diffuse fears, the oil futures suggest otherwise.

To the best of my knowledge, futures start posting at 6:00 p.m. CST.

At 7:00 p.m. in Chicago and 8:00 p.m. in New York City, Sunday night, February 27, 2011, oil futures are up $1.90 to $99.78.

It's been my "feeling" that futures seldom correlate with the opening the following day, and seem to correlate even less as the trading goes on.

But at least on Sunday night, about a week after "the Libyan thing" began, there is still a bit of anxiety in the markets.

Libya's Oil Disruptions Widen As Two More Fields Halt Output -- Militants -- August 27, 2017

A reader just alerted me to this story: Libya's oil disruptions widen as two more fields halt output.

My feelings about Libya? This is what I posted August 22, 2017, when the first oil field went out.

Libya? How important is Libya to the price of oil? Just a reminder: Libya has halted "loadings" from its biggest oil field (militants  again, I'm shocked, I'm shocked). That was announced yesterday; a force majeure. Change in the price of oil? Flat. 

Of course, with this most recent Libyan story and now the Houston/Harvey Hurricane, all bets are off. We will know later this evening what this all means when we see futures at 6:00 p.m. ET. 

Back to Libya:

• El Feel, or Elephant, stopped production, Wessam Al-Messmari, an office manager for the Petroleum Facilities Guard that is protecting the field, said Sunday by phone. State-run National Oil Corp. declared force majeure at the deposit, according to a person familiar with the situation who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.
• The Hamada oil field will gradually stop pumping through Monday because of the pipeline closing, Arabian Gulf Oil Co. spokesman Omran al-Zwai said Sunday. Force majeure was also declared on Hamada, he said. 
• An armed group closed the pipelines to Hamada and El Feel, according to a person familiar with the situation.

WTI Goes Below $58; We Should See As Many As 21 Wells Report Out Of North Dakota Today -- January 21, 2020

Tea leaves: reading scores of tabloid articles over the weekend leads me to one conclusion -- Harry really stepped in it. After signing agreement worked out by the Queen, his dad and his lawyers, Harry now says that's not what he wanted. But he's off to Canada. A man without a job, without a country, without a clue. What he says he misses most? His brother. Wow.

Libya: irrelevant.  One million bopd taken out of production and Brent? Drops 1.43%; trading near $64. WTI? Below $58.

Groundhog day: from April 11, 2017:

Libya: I generally don't blog about (or, for that matter, care about) Libya but this was the top story over at Rigzone today and the headline got my attention: Libya halts Sharara oil loadings as biggest field shuts down. Now the question is: why did the field shut down? I assume Libya is complying with OPEC decision to cut production. LOL. Data points:

• Libya declares force majeure over this stoppage
• unclear why the pipeline was shut down
• Sharara was pumping 200,000 bopd

WTI: futures. Down slightly. Obviously Libya force majeure has no effect on the oil market.

Iraq: BP pulls out of Iraq's Kirkuk oil field as expansion plans stall.

*********************************  
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$57.90	1/21/2020	01/21/2019	01/21/2018	01/21/2017	01/21/2016
Active Rigs	56	67	58	38	47

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, January 21, 2020: 74 for the month; 74 for the quarter, 74 for the year:

• 36289, drl, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3H3A, Mandaree,
• 34989, 681, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-7H, Painted Woods, t8/19; cum 78K 11/19;

Monday, January 20, 2020: 72 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 72 for the year:

• 36288, drl, Rimrock Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3HA, Mandaree,
• 36154, 1,825, Whiting, Martell 34-36HU, Glass Bluff, t7/19; cum 66K 11/19;
• 33155, SI/NC, BR, Mathistad 7-8-35 MBH, Croff, no production data,

Sunday, January 19, 2020: 69 for the month; 69 for the quarter; 69 for the year:

• 362728, drl, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HTL, Spotted Horn,
• 35880, 532, Whiting, Meiers 12-17-3H, Sanish, t9/19; cum 41K 11/19;
• 35015, 738, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-8H, Painted Woods, t8/19; cum 72K 11/19;
• 33154, SI/NC, BR, Croff 8-1-2 UTFH, Croff, no production data,

Saturday, January 18, 2020: 65 for the month; 65 for the quarter; 65 for the year:

• 36199, drl, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HD, Spotted Horn,
• 35996, 1,533, Whiting, Martell 34-36-3H, Glass Bluff, t7/19; cum 61K 11/19;
• 35904, 2,768, CLR, Honolulu 6-15H, Indian Hill, t7/19; cum 123K 11/19; 43K month;
• 35506, 2,046, CLR, Weisz 8-11H, Pleasant Valley, t11/19; cum 38K 11/19; a 38K month;
• 34175, 1,286, CLR, Ravin 7-1H, Dimmick Lake, t8/19; cum 112K 11/19; a 36K month;
• 32780, SI/NC, BR, Cleoff 8-1-2 MBH-ULW, Croff, no production data,

Friday, January 17, 2020: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter; 59 for the year;

• 36397, SI/NC, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 4-24-11-1HU, Mandaree, no production data,
• 36200, drl, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HZ, Spotted Horn,
• 35687, SI/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1B TFH, North Fork, no production data,
• 35686, SI/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1A MBH, North Fork, no production data,
• 35505, 1,620, CLR, Weisz 7-11H1, Pleasant Valley, t11/19; cum 29K 11/19;
• 34826, drl, Hess, HA-Nelson A-152-95-3427-9, Hawkeye,
• 32779, SI/NC, BR, Veederstad 8-8-35UTFH-ULW, Blue Buttes, no production data,

RBN Energy: will Canadian producers increase gas-focused spending, supplies?

Canadian oil and natural gas producers were dancing very much to the same tune as their U.S. counterparts in 2019: reduce capital spending, live within cash flow and improve returns to investors. The only major difference for Canadian gas producers is that they were forced to dance even faster due to abysmal natural gas pricing during the summer of 2019, which cast a very negative pall over the whole sector for the remainder of last year. Although the focus on spending restraint, cash flow and returns has not changed for these producers upon entering 2020, there are encouraging signals that Canadian gas pricing will be materially improved this year, especially during the summer months, supporting higher cash flows and a cautious expansion in capital spending. Today, we examine the drivers behind what might increase capital spending by gas producers and lead to an increase in supplies.

Miscellaneous Notes On Events in The Mideast

Updates

May 29, 2013: OPEC disbands its production quota monitoring committee. OPEC produces much more than mandated 30 million bopd ceiling. Iraq on track to double production by 2020 (to 6.1 million bopd).


May 2, 2012: things getting tense in the Mideast: Saudi warning Iran over island sovereignty; Israel calling up reserves.

January 16, 2012, one hour later: gasoline shortages in Egypt. 

January 16, 2012: Egypt to be led by an Islamist (as in "death to America" terrorist).

Liberals and Islamists in Egypt announced a temporary agreement Monday on a power-sharing plan that would install a Muslim Brotherhood leader as speaker of the country’s newly elected parliament.

The agreement among six political parties all but guarantees that the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party will lead Egypt’s first elected parliament since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak in February, with the Islamist party expected to control as many as half the seats.

This would be similar to voting in Louis Farrakhan as Speaker of the House as an answer to America's gridlock in Congress.

It will be interesting to see what Egypt looks like in 18 months. I hope it's a mecca for tourists, but something tells me it will be a Mecca for terrorists.

Original Post

Some data points and then a thought.

First the data points:

• WTI price of oil: jumps 9.2 percent in one day; approaching $100/barrel; this spike follows the news in Libya
• Libya: accounts for less than 1.5 million barrels of oil/day; all of it goes to Europe (Brent, not WTI)
• Libya: accounts for less than 3 percent of global production
• XOM: accounts for about 3 percent of global production
• Saudi Arabia: everyone says Saudi can easily make up the difference if Libya is down for the long term
• The Bakken: estimates are that North Dakota could produce 1 million barrels of oil/day by 2015

Comment: Someone needs to provide a reason why Europe's losing a million barrels of oil/day that can be "easily made up by Saudi Arabia" is resulting in WTI spike to $100 with projections it could go higher. It makes no sense. Unless...

It can only come down to this: a) investors/speculators bidding oil up to >$100 do not believe Saudi can produce an additional million barrels/day and get it to Europe; and/or, b) investors/speculators do not feel the "wildfire" in the Mideast can be stopped at Saudi's borders.

There really aren't any other explanations.

Tonight we learn that Saudi has infused $36 billion into the pockets of its blue-collar workers, public service employees, the unemployed and students in an attempt to keep the peace. This amounts to a pay raise of 15 percent for some. Is that enough to keep the peace? The king of Saudi is 87 years old; he has been in power since 2005.

********

I don't think it's a "bridge too far" to suggest that Syrian and Hamas youths are frustrated they are not yet part of the action. Certainly they are following events in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya on television and the internet. Certainly they are commenting to their friends on Facebook and other social networks.

My hunch: they are probably waiting for their military supplies off those two Iranian ships that just went through the Suez Canal. Once those supplies are closer to Syria, they can provoke Israel while the US is distracted by what's going on in Libya and what might go on in Saudi.

Tonight we learn that rockets have been fired into Israel for the first time since the Gaza War.

I think some folks are making bets when that middle of the night / 3:00 a.m. phone call is gonna come in.

********

Flashback, October 25, 2010: Perfect storm for a spike in price of oil.

********

On February 22, 2010, President Obama gave his "green light" speech to community organizers in the Mideast. There appears to be one exception. Nile Gardiner of The Telegraph noted that for some reason the president is more ambivalent about removing the leader of Libya, the same man personally responsible for the Lockerbie terrorist act.

Is This Getting a Bit Bizarre? The War on Libya Will Be Managed by a Political-Steering Committee

The US wants out (of the leadership position).

NATO wants out (of the leadership position).

Britain's Prime Minister wants out (of the leadership position).

France has proposed that a new political steering committee outside NATO be responsible for overseeing military operations over Libya.

I get a lot of "hate mail" for my non-Bakken posts, but I generally re-report it as I see it. Again, in this case, I can't make it up: this is exactly what is being proposed by the man/country who got us into this mess in the first place (Sarkozy/France) and to some extent, Cameron/Great Britain.

And whether you support, don't support, or have no opinion on what's going in and over Libya, a) setting up a new "entity" to manage a coalition in the middle of the war; and, b) labeling it a "political steering committee" seems entirely nuts.

"A political steering committee to be responsible for overseeing military operations over Libya." I guess Clausewitz was correct: war is a mere continuation of politics by other means. In this case, FranceBritainUS won't even disguise it: it will a political exercise. With Tomahawks. And two Qatar vintage fighter jets.

Wow.

It just dawned on me: the country closest to Libya with most interesting political history -- Italy.

 There's an old saying that victory has 100 fathers and defeat is an orphan. JFK News Conference, April 12, 1961.

******

April 4, 2011: US pulls back its fighter-bombers; then extends for two days; pulls them back again. Now Kadafi says he's staying for now but Libyans in "free" election will determine if he stays longer.


March 23, 2011: US Marines are being sent to Libya. Amphibious vessels are already there. I assume the US Marines will follow orders from a foreign "political steering committee."

March 23, 2011: British Navy -- after only five days of war -- and attacking a small country -- is running out of Tomahawk missiles. I cannot make this stuff up.

Flashback, March 23, 2011: from the Drudge Report -- apparently it isn't only Democratic senators that want to impeach the president. Even his vice president is on record voicing his responsibility to see that the president is impeached if he goes to war without Congressional approval. I can't make this stuff up. It is interesting to watch Howard Dean support the war effort. Hell must be freezing over.

Update, March 22, 2011, 9:30 p.m. EST: this is nuts. Germany has pulled its forces out of NATO over the Libyan crisis. The coalition is in disarray. Obama will cut short his Latin American trip to head home to sort things out -- I guess report to the "political steering committee." So, now, on top of everything else our current administration has done, now it looks like they've fractured NATO. This is incredible. Amateur hour. With consequences. I can only imagine the talk shows tomorrow morning. I can hardly wait to hear the spin we get on this. France: "We are not at war."  How did the US step into this? Hillary Clinton: win-win. If the war went well, it was her war. If the war went badly, it was Obama's war. Something tells me Hillary Clinton is going to avoid a face-to-face meeting with her boss as long as she can. Democratic lawmaker says Obama's actions are impeachable offense; hell must be freezing over -- I'm starting to like Dennis Kucinich.

LOL -- US State Department Accuses OPEC Of Hiding Spare Capacity In Venezuela, Libya; The "Real Answer" To Where All That "Spare Capacity" Is Hiding -- October 4, 2018

The writer of this article admits she does not know how the EIA arrived at its conclusions but suggests that OPEC "spare capacity" could include:

• Iran (sanctions)
• Venezuela (imploding)
• Libya (exploding)

LOL. 

The article:

The U.S. State Department has lashed out against OPEC, accusing the cartel of hiding 1.42 million bpd in spare oil production capacity, S&P Global Platts reports, citing a statement sent to it by the State Department.

The State Department said figures from the Energy Information Administration suggested that OPEC was withholding 1.42 million bpd of spare capacity and the department was working with the cartel to “produce the spare capacity,” as S&P Global Platts put it.

The way this “hidden” number of barrels was calculated was not revealed.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA estimated OPEC’s spare production capacity at 1.66 million bpd. Most of this must be Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity, and one cannot forget that the spare capacity of Venezuela is questionable, as is the spare capacity of other troubled oil producers such as Libya and Iran.

To make matters more confusing still, the International Energy Agency last month estimated OPEC’s spare capacity at 2.7 million bpd and is fast declining. Bloomberg quoted a warning from the international agency that the producers who had promised to offset any loss of supply from Iran would not be able to deliver on this promise.

So, the writer is suggesting that the US State Department could be including Iranian oil as a source of "spare capacity." LOL.

Iran is a "troubled producer." Okay.

Clearly, the US State Department does not want to call out "Saudi Arabia" by name so it blames OPEC.

Libya might be a "troubled producer," but I would consider Iran a "sanctioned producer."

By the way, with global demand/supply at 100 million bopd in round numbers, Libya at 1 million bopd in round numbers is irrelevant.

It doesn't appear oil traders are particularly concerned: oil is down across the board today, certainly not on its "relentless" march to $100 oil.
Interestingly, Iraq, #4 in world production is not even mentioned in the article (I might have missed it). My hunch is that where all the spare capacity is being hidden, along with weapons of mass destruction. LOL.

Somewhat old data, but instructive, from wiki, global production by country. One has to go all the way to #20, just above Great Britain, to get to Libya:

Seriously: you want to know where the "spare capacity" is hiding? Remove China from the list above; remove Iran from the list above, and #7 Canada moves to #5. Canada has huge amounts of "spare capacity" but no one can get to it because it's landlocked and four pipelines that could move Canadian oil have been killed, deferred, or delayed by Trudeau, Soros, Steyer, Sir Saint Obama, and other faux environmentalists.

In the out years, Colorado, by banning fracking, will be another country hiding "spare capacity." France has banned fracking forever, and is also hiding a lot of "spare capacity."

This whole "US State Department blaming OPEC for hiding spare capacity reminds me of the "Little Red Hen" children's story.

Wind Energy, Turbines, Libya, and Oil Price Conspiracies

Updates

March 2, 2011: One of the points I was trying to make below was finally voiced in words that no one could misunderstand: Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour says the administration favors high oil prices.  The second point: for those following the high speed railroad story, ask who will build the high-speed electric locomotives, and then ask who is the administration's White House economic adviser. Answer at bottom of the this post.

Original Post

I have to flesh this out later, but while I cogitate on this, you all may want to spend some time connecting the dots.

• WTI price of oil: jumps 9.2 percent in one day; approaching $100/barrel; follows news in Libya
• Libya: accounts for less than 1.5 million barrels of oil/day; all of it goes to Europe (Brent, not WTI)
• Libya: accounts for less than 3 percent of global production
• XOM: accounts for about 3 percent of global production
• Saudi Arabia: everyone says Saudi can easily make up the difference if Libya is down for the long term
• The Bakken: estimates are that North Dakota could produce 1 million barrels of oil/day by 2015
• Link to the top wind energy turbine companies worldwide
• Recent wind energy turbine sales: Norway and Sweden to get giant GE turbines; "giant" was their word, not mine
• The administration's new economic czar is the CEO of GE, Mr Jeffrey Immelt
• I seem to remember an old adage, "what's good for GM, is good for America."

Whenever my students ask me a question I cannot answer or if they ask me a question that I can answer, but then the follow-up question is "why," I tell them two things:

• Follow the money
• Google it

I remember when I first started this blog, I remember reading many other blogs that opined that the Bakken was being "hyped."  Of course, that's in the eye of the beholder, but when I see the anxiety caused by "losing Libya" with a piddly 2 million bopd, and then seeing estimates of 1 million bopd coming out of the Bakken in a couple of years, it should give pause with regard to one's thinking exactly how important the Bakken, the Niobrara, and the Eagle Ford are.

*******

Answer to trivia question: it is my hunch that GE will make the electric locomotives for high-speed rail advocated by the administration. The administration's economic czar is the GE/CEO.

NDIC Site Still Compromised -- Unable To Post Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Part 7 -- May 22, 2022

Earlier, I posted:

Reserves: I don't "believe" any of these numbers because I can't accept data for two or three countries, and I assume if those two or three are wrong, the rest are wrong. Link here. If nothing else, Libya is a non-factor in light of today's geo-political events:

In round numbers and rounded:

• Libya: 50
• US: 60

Does anyone really believe Libya is as "important" as the US when it comes to crude oil production?

Nearest 100:

• Libya: 100
• US: 100
• Russia: 100

Does anyone really believe Libya, US, and Russia co-equals when it comes too crude oil production?

The original Leigh Price paper regarding the Bakken:

• OOIP: 500 billion bbls crude oil
• 10% recovery: 50 billion bbls crude oil
• some suggest, Bakken primary production in North Dakota is trending toward 15%, previiously posted.
  

And, if one argues, natural gas is now more important than crude oil, that changes everything -- in the favor of the US.

Libya and US Oil Companies

Reuters reports the following crude output as a total of worldwide production:

• ConocoPhillips: two (2) percent of COP's worldwide production comes from Libya
• Marathon:  nineteen (19) percent of MRO's worldwide production comes from Libya
• Hess: eight (8) percent of HES' worldwide production comes from Libya
• Occidental: less than two (<2) percent of OXY's worldwide production comes from Libya

The Mideast

Update

March 18, 2011: When I wrote the original note below, I implied that despots and dictators in the Mideast learned a lot when they saw what happened to Mubarak in Egypt and how Libyan strongman Kadafi handled a similar situation. Now, others are reporting the same thing.

Kadafi has ruled this country for four decades using tools also at the disposal of other Arab leaders. He shrouded his dirty deeds in nationalist ideology. He tactically doled out the country's oil money. He kept tabs on his enemies here and abroad.

But in the end, it was Kadafi's willingness to use brute force and the tools of his police state that has helped him so far avoid the fate of neighboring autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt who were swallowed up by popular revolutions.

Regimes in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Syria appear to have taken note, confronting their uprisings with a hard wall of state-sponsored violence.

If the people rise up against Saudi royalty, I wonder if President Obama will side with the rebels? If not, it's interesting how he picks which countries should become democratic. Apparently those with minimal / no oil such as Libya and Egypt get freedom. Those with oil, won't. 

Original Post

I can't comment on the situation in Tunisia, except to say it is a constitutional republic.

No one has any idea how "this" will end in the Mideast, but there are already lessons to be learned, and observations.

It is interesting to note that the countries with the most Western-oriented (with one exception: Morocco), liberal thinking, well-educated were the first to be engulfed in conflict.

Tunisia first, and as I've said, I don't know it well enough to comment further except to say that is is a constitutional republic.

Then, Egypt, perhaps the longest ally of the west, working closely with the west to hammer out peace treaties with Israel, was the second. It's young people may be the best educated among the Mideast countries, and they are probably the most traveled, particularly to London. Their government, outside of Israel, of course, was the most progressive among the countries with Sunni- or Shia-dominated populations.

Then Libya. Of course, there is a madman in control, but his 38-year-old son was well-educated and well-traveled. The expectation was that he would succeed his father with plans to bring Libya closer to the western world.

The westernised 38-year-old, who studied at the London School of Economics and enjoys close friendships with senior British politicians and financiers, has become the focal point of the conflict now threatening to rip Libya apart.
Whereas Gaddafi senior has always been seen in the west as a dictator – albeit one brought back into the fold – Saif, a trained architect who established a medical charity and was considered his father's heir apparent, held out the promise of a new dawn.
As far back as 2002, Saif told an interviewer that Libya needed democracy. "It's policy number one for us. First thing democracy, second thing democracy, third thing democracy," Saif said, using a rhetorical technique he was to repeat last week to far more sinister effect.

Another link here regarding the son's ties to London.

Bahrain was next; and that appears to be settled. Sort of. For now.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have both stomped on initial efforts of protesters.

Obviously, Iraq is a special case, but had Saddam still been in charge, I doubt there would have been any long-lasting or successful uprising.

My hunch: the leaders (despots as some would call them) in the more hard-line countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran are learning a lesson: they need to improve things for their folks but democracy is not something they are going to be interested in any time soon, now that they have seen where it leads.

North Dakota Now Exceeds Libya's Oil Production

That may not be entirely accurate (that North Dakota now exceeds Libya's oil production) but I bet I'm not far off.

OGJ reports that:

Due to the continued violence sweeping the country, Libya’s oil production has decreased by 75% to around 400,000 b/d from the normal 1.6 million b/d, according to Paolo Scaroni, Eni SPA chief executive officer. 

I would assume that when the story was written some oil that was still in the pipeline has now been offloaded. With the continued conflict, production is dropping further. In addition, it's been my experience that folks try to put the best face on things, and there may be a bit of exaggeration that Libya is still producing even that much oil.

North Dakota is producing about 365,000 bopd. Production is being artificially restricted for any number of reasons, and it's very possible North Dakota is closer to the 400,000 bopd threshold than Libya is each day the conflict continues. 

Three International Stories Of Note -- July 21, 2018

Updates

July 22, 2018: a reader, with more "experience" with Saudi Arabia than most have and who follows the oil industry much closer than I do, agrees with me that Saudi Arabia doesn't have much ability to export that "spare capacity."

The reader wrote: Twenty years ago when I left Saudi Arabia, I thought that Aramco production would be in decline in about 20 years, i.e., 2017.

The reader suggests that Aramco has an aggressive Saudization program, replacing Americans who are willing to take risks with Saudis who cannot take risk. Apparently the Saudi Aramco "reward" system is based on "not making mistakes." [Which suggests to me that a lot of senior Saudi Aramco folks paid a huge price for their "trillion-dollar mistake, 2014 - 2017.] Under the Saudi way of doing things, the safest management scheme is to do nothing: have meetings and drink tea. But don't take risks.

 

The reader concludes: the Saudis are producing every drop they can.

Original Post

Iraq: huge protests. Government "blocks" internet access to its citizens in an attempt to quell protests.

As southern Iraq reels from snowballing protests that threaten oil facilities at a critical political weak point, the outgoing prime minister is taking dangerous measures to stop them, including aggressive use of security forces and cutting internet access that could cost the country $40 million a day.

Italy: needs US oil to make up for Libyan shortfall. More evidence that Libya no longer matters.

Libya’s oil disruptions would normally wreak havoc in Italy—one of Libya’s top oil consumers—but the United States is serving as a pinch hitter in the wake of civil unrest in the troubled African nation.

Italy’s imports of US crude spiked as Libya struggled to ship oil under force majeure in recent months.

In June, Italy imported a record 4.93 million barrels of crude oil from the United States, or 165,000 barrels per day. That represents a noteworthy increase to the 3.3 million barrels shipped from the US to Italy in May and 1.9 million barrels in April. [One analyst] predicts that 2.14 million barrels are set to ship from the US to Italy in July.

On the flip side, Libya’s shipments to Italy were 9.73 million barrels in May, followed by a drastic decrease in June to 3.45 million barrels.

Saudi Arabia: hits "pause button" on higher oil output. For newbies, "everyone" talks about Saudi's production, not their exports. This is another article: emphasizes "production." Four points:

• I've never thought much of Saudi's ability to significantly increase production
• Saudi Arabia always increases production in summer to meet summer domestic consumption needs (a/c demand; electricity from oil in the Saudi Arabia)
• Prince Salman is now adding refinery capacity in his country which increased the country's domestic consumption 
• President Trump has asked Saudi Arabia to increase production, with a threat to release oil from the US SPR if the price of gasoline does not come down

Now, this:

Oil prices held steady on Thursday and in early trading on Friday after a top Saudi official said that oil production would remain flat in July compared to June and that Saudi Arabia does not want to oversupply the market. Previous comments suggested that Saudi Arabia would ramp up to 10.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in July, but instead the Saudis will keep output at 10.5 mb/d.

I find it interesting that at a point in time when Saudi Arabia should be increasing production, the country is actually cutting back. I think there's more to the story we are not hearing. Drones over Riyadh can't be comforting.

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North Dakota And DAPL
 

Updates

July 22, 2018: Native American protesters enter plea agreements to avoid long prison terms. They're lucky they live in a country that allows plea agreements. In Iraq, ....

Original Post 

Same link as above.

Bakken crude enjoys higher prices.

The completion of the Dakota Access pipeline in 2017 has provided a boost to the Bakken, which used to trade at a steep discount to WTI because of a shortage of midstream capacity.

Bakken Clearbrook, a hub in Minnesota, traded at a $16-per-barrel discount to WTI in 2013, but last month it sold for a $2-per-barrel premium.

“That is enormous when you are looking at what is happening in Midland, Texas, where they are selling at a $9-$19/bl discount,” said Lynn Helms, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.

Comment: Helms was nice to avoid reminding us how much the Native Americans at Standing Rock cost the state and the industry. What? Was it four years that the DAPL was delayed or just a year or so?

80% Drop In Libyan Oil Production "Not Good News" For Libya -- Bloomberg -- June 29, 2016

Bloomberg study suggests that an 80% drop in Libya's oil output is "not good news" for the country.

I cannot make this stuff up.

From Rigzone:

Ongoing militant attacks on hydrocarbon installations in Libya have helped stem the production of oil in the country to well below pre-2011 output levels.

“Such activity, in combination with oil embargos, has contributed to an 80 percent fall in national oil output since 2011,” said Ruth Lux, a senior consultant within JLT’s credit, political & security risk division consulting team.

For most of the last two years, oil production in Libya has been stuck at around 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd).

This output drop is not good news for the country considering it’s one of the most dependent oil economies in the world, according to a study by Bloomberg released in January.

"Not good news" for Libya -- that its crude oil production has dropped 80% since 2011. Well, duh.

Taking Water Trucks Off The Road; Libya About Ready To Call It A Day -- Getting Ready To Shut Down -- Take Some Time Off To Fight A War -- February 15, 2015

The other day I posted a note about all the fracking that will be required this summer. It generated a nice little discussion regarding some data points on fracking water. These are just ball-park figures, not exact at all, but gives newbies a feel for what this all means. A reader noted that "he/they" have 1200 acre-feet of fresh water under contract for fracking "by hose." Going through all the conversions, if I understand the conversation correctly, 1200 acre-feet "by hose" equates to about 40,000 + truck sorties -- i.e, taking trucks off the road -- which, by the way, means some operators won't have to wait for lifting of road restrictions if sand/ceramic is pre-positioned. Idle chatter. Not sure about that. But gets me thinking.

************************************

Bloomberg is reporting:

The North African nation’s oil production was reduced by 180,000 barrels a day after a fire at a pipeline that carries crude to the eastern Hariga port, National Oil spokesman Mohamed Elharari said by phone in Tripoli. Hariga, near Tobruk, has oil left in storage for exports and the last ship to load there was the Greek-flagged Minerva Zoe.

Libya, holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, was producing 350,000 barrels a day in January.

The nation may be producing less than 200,000 barrels a day after the pipeline fire. The previous lowest daily average was in March 2014, at 150,000 barrels. A member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Libya was producing 1.6 million barrels a day before the 2011 rebellion that ended Muammar Qaddafi’s 42-year rule. 

What does it matter?

So, who are the terrorists threatening Libya? None other than the JV team (President Obama's word terminology). Reuters is reporting:

Islamic State released a video on Sunday purporting to show the beheading of a group of Egyptian Christians kidnapped in Libya, violence likely to deepen Cairo's concerns over security threats from militants thriving in the neighboring country's chaos.

Egypt's state news agency MENA quoted the spokesman for the Coptic Church as confirming that 21 Egyptian Christians believed to be held by Islamic State were dead.

Egypt has a lot to worry about. Under President Obama, US foreign policy --

• "Strategic Patience" 
• "terrorism" does not exist
• Islamists are just like the rest of us; we just need to understand their grievances

Closer to home:

• close GITMO
• open borders
• blanket amnesty

What The Greek Debt Story Is All About

Coyote Blog has a great explanation. 

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Just An Excuse To Extend The Deadline

Fox News is reporting that the ObamaCare websites "hit a snag" on the deadline weekend. 

Consumers trying to sign up for health insurance ahead of a looming deadline are getting snagged by technical difficulties, the Obama administration said Saturday.

Administration spokeswoman Katie Hill said some people trying to get coverage under President Barack Obama's health care law haven't been able to get their income information electronically verified.

That's crucial because the amount of financial assistance to help pay premiums is based on people's income. The health care law offers subsidized private insurance to people who don't have coverage on the job. More than 8 in 10 of those who apply qualify for help. Without it, most can't afford the coverage.

Not to worry. This is simply an "excuse" to extend the deadline another couple of weeks. How many folks really knew that the deadline was this weekend. Now with "everyone" reporting the snags, more folks will know; more will sign up with President Obama signs an executive order extending the deadline, or puts pressure on insurance companies to extend the deadline. 

This is a non-issue; "deadlines" are sort of like lane markers on Italian highways: just a suggestion.

*********************************

Notes For The Granddaughters

Our 8-y/o granddaughter is working on her art project. In the background we are hearing mostly, but watching a little, the DVD, "The Art of Norton Simon."

May and I visited the Norton Simon art museum in Pasadena last summer. We had visited it only once before. I've always wanted to return but this past summer it was even more important to go: the Norton Simon was showing "The Railway," an Édouard Manet painting on loan from the Musée d'Orsay in Paris.

I was interested in looking at the video again. It just so happened that in the "Review" section of The Wall Street Journal today had a long article on that very painting, and noted that it was on loan to the Norton Simon through March 2, 2015. 

The article also happened to mention one of my favorite words, flâneur. Between 2001 and 2004, on many trips back to Yorkshire, northern England, I was a hiker and a flâneur. The word brings back many, many good memories.

Incidentally, just below the fold on the page that has the story on Manet's "The Railway," there is a short music review by the suspense novelist Jonathan Kellerman. He talks about Santo and Johnny's 1959 "Sleep Walk." I hardly need say more. 



Sleep Walk, Santo & Johnny

Presidential Race: 2012 -- "Just So Much Noise"

Daily journal.

NOTE: now that the election is over, I have no plans to update this post. Not much what Mr Obama says any more means anything. He has his own agenda which is well understood by those who have followed his first term closely.

In lieu of this post on the 2012 presidential race, I am keeping a daily journal of random thoughts I have had post-election (same link as above).

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Who's Sorry Now, Connie Francis
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Do words matter? Probably not (any more):

Words Matter, The First Term
Most disappointing public figure: Colin Powell. Not only will he vote for President Obama, Mr Powell is in a high-profile television ad endorsing President Obama. Not only did Mr Powell declare himself a Republican at one time, but he also was appointed the Secretary of Defense by a Republican President. At one time, loyalty and integrity were hallmarks of military men. In light of the Libyan debacle, Mr Powell's endorsement is even more troubling.

From Peggy Noonan, WSJ, October 27 - 28, 2012:

Which gets us to Bob Woodward's "The Price of Politics," published last month. The portrait it contains of Mr Obama -- of a president who is at once over his head, out of his depth and wholly unaware of the fact -- hasn't received the attention it deserves. Throughout the book, which is a journalistic history of the president's key economic negotiations with Capitol Hill, Mr Obama is portrayed as having the appearance and presentation of an academic or intellectual while being strangely clueless in his reading of political situations and dynamics. He is bad at negotiating -- in fact doesn't know how. His confidence is consistently greater than his acumen, his arrogance greater than his grasp.

Jeff Jacoby's article in today's Boston Globe is priceless. My hunch is that sentient folks voting for President Obama this time around will be able to rationalize every thing Jeff has to say about the president.  -- October 21, 2012. And then this: my thoughts exactly.

***************** 

I'm predicting a "Chavez victory" for Obama.

Exit polls will show overwhelmingly that Romney has won, but when the votes are counted, Obama will be the unexpected winner.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we see Obama holding a newspaper with the headline: Romney wins!

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September 11, 2012: On 9/11 anniversary, the US ambassador to Libya is killed. The administration has changed the story so many times; not linked. This link is fascinating: 

When terrorists attacked the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, on Sept. 11 of this year and killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans, there were no U.S. Marines deployed in Libya to defend U.S. diplomats, diplomatic facilities and classified information and equipment. However, says the State Department, a Marine Security Detachment was deployed on that day to carry out those duties at the U.S. Embassy in Bridgetown, Barbados.

The silence is deafening! I am a newsaholic, but I missed this. I wonder how many others have missed this. I have not seen it reported in the mainstream media. The killing of the US ambassador to Libya was the first time a US ambassador had been killed in 33 years. Did you know that? My hunch is you did not (know that). The mainstream media reported very, very little on this story, perhaps the biggest international story leading up to the election. And the mainstream media avoided it. Yes, the silence is deafening. But not surprising. Some have said that folks supporting this president are either ideologues or lying to themselves. Maybe.


Clint: “President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people," -- Clint Eastwood, September 7, 2012.

2016: blockbuster of a movie. This is exactly my point, no hidden agenda; no emotion. Barack Obama is simply the most "mysterious" president this country has ever had.

While pundits and critics are divided over whether "2016: Obama's America" is a sobering documentary examining "the most mysterious US president in modern history" or an 87-minute attack ad, there's no debating that the film is a box office phenomenon.

Columbia University cannot even account for one of his years while enrolled.

Newsweek front cover, August 19, 2012: Barack Obama has got to go. Something tells me Newsweek is about to go bust; they've lost their readership. This front cover piece suggests to me they are scrambling to get their readers back. Futile.  Could the election be a tsunami?

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And they want 12 years of Romney's tax records. I could care less what Romney paid. I want to pay less in taxes.



A Manchurian Candidate


I find it amazing how many folks -- who would normally question  the many inconsistencies in the "Obama Story" are quick to laugh it off. The lack of transcripts, the fact Columbia University was only recently able to find records of his being there, and his answer to the question about using other names, is very, very alarming. His trip to Pakistan is very, very interesting. The fact that so few (if any) in "official Washington" are taking this seriously suggests to me "they" don't want to pursue this for fear of where this may all lead. His group of friends is, indeed, incredible. I think the biggest question folks need to ask is how a community organizer becomes president in less than a decade. For a president, I am unaware of so many unanswered questions. Basically, it comes down to his version of his story. At best, he is a puppet beholding to some very rich men; at worst, he is a  Manchurian candidate president.
The Obama Deception, posted in early 2009. Wow.

Actually, I Do Believe in Redistribution Wow: Nobel Peace Prize; Possible Nobel Prize in Economics, Next?
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Data points

Job Watch

As of August 2, 2012, two data points:

• The unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 8.2 percent in July. It has been stuck above 8 percent for more than two years, the longest run since the Great Depression. The Obama recession: worse than ever.
• The total number of people employed is 4.9 million lower than before the 2007-09 recession -- you, know, the Bush recession. Now it's the Obama recession, worse than ever.

Murder of the American Ambassador to Libya: the amount of damaging information coming out of this story directly relating to the Oval Office is staggering. Only one snippet follows; there is too much coming out on a daily basis to post here. A book will be written. But not in time to affect the election. 

The word on the street is that the US was well aware of the likelihood of an attack on US embassies on 9/11 well in advance; we know that President Obama did not attend intelligence briefings the week before the murder; we know that President Obama went to bed that night and was not awakened even as the embassy was under siege; and, and, and, the US is investigating a US filmmaker? So, now we're blaming filmmakers for what Islamists are doing to US citizens overseas? But, "the US won't tolerate efforts to harm Americans." -- the President. A little bit, I would say. 

The Afghan massacre:

[The president's] comments came one day after a US soldier, described in news reports as a 38-year-old U.S. Army Staff Sergeant, went on a shooting rampage outside his base in southern Afghanistan, killing mostly women and children and plunging already strained ties between Kabul and Washington into a damaging new crisis.

"This is a situation where, although we're still doing the investigation, it appears that you had a lone gunman who acted on his own in just a tragic, tragic way," Obama said.

Asked whether the bloody rampage recalled the My Lai Massacre of the Vietnam War, Obama replied that "it's not comparable."

It isn't? Once the media starts comparing Afghanistan with Vietnam, it's all over. [Except in this case, when the media no longer reports on the Afghanistan War at all.]

Gasoline Prices

• Gasoline prices/futures under George Bush: never higher than $2.80/gallon; well under $2.00 much of his presidency
• Gasoline prices/futures under Barack Obama: approaching $4.00 -- $4.00+ in California
• On Barack Obama's inauguration day: gasoline, $1.86; will be $4.00 summer of 2012

Obama's Accomplishments

• Obama's responses to what he has done: weatherized 1 million homes
• promoted algae
• recommends conservation
• Conservation has gone very, very well; gasoline demand has decreased 8 percent year-over-year
• Nobel peace prize for what?

Other Obama Accomplishments

• killed the Keystone XL 1.0
• slow-rolled the domestic oil and gas industry 
• moratorium followed by a prolonged permitorium

Killing the Keystone

• Obama supporters blame it on GOP -- not enough time to study -- in fact, the Keystone has been studied longer than WWII lasted;
• Congress willing to take the blame; Obama twisted Dems arms to kill the Keystone in the Senate

Links

"You didn't build that. Someone else made that happen." WOW! Read my lips!

Obama-Shave signs south of Seattle, Washington.

Unmitigated Disaster: Where Do We Begin?

Afghanistan: the forgotten war. 2,000 dead, September, 2012; eleven years of war; no media story
Miserable economy, record unemployment, $16 trillion debt and growing; bank bailout; Wall St b/o
US credit rating lowered twice under President Obama -- is this a first?
Caves in to faux environmentalists; cancels shovel-ready jobs in oil and gas industry
Moratorium and then permitorium in the gulf
Record number of folks on food stamps
Gasoline prices have more than doubled under Obama
Embassies under attack throughout the Middle East; US ambassador to Libya killed; warned
The forgotten war: Afghanistan; still there, despite campaign pledge to be out
Gitmo not closed despite campaign pledge
Does his best to kill the coal industry: a campaign pledge
Kills Portland-area wind farm after Chinese company invests in it

T-Shirts

Apparently I'm supposed to be more upset with what Romney does with his money, than with what Obama does with mine.


I don't care what his address was when he was born; I just want him at a new address in 2013.

Convention

God removed; God back in; God out? -- Obama: "Why was God taken out in the first place." The president had hand in drafting the Democratic platform. Who's on first?

Memorable buttons:

• Sluts vote
• Vote black

And, yes, those buttons were there.

Not So Funny

Jay Leno: we wasted four years waiting for Barack Obama to do something about the economy. 

Humor

Q: how do you starve an Obama supporter?
A: Hide his/her food stamps under their work shoes.

Serious Questions



Quotes

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our government's reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America's debt weaken us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, 'the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better." -- Senator Barack Hussein ("missing in action") Obama, March, 2006.

News 

 October 30, 2012: day after Hurricane Sandy - 4.5 million without power in New York, New Jersey area; 7 - 10 days to restore; puts "us" inside "election day"; what makes me think President Obama's team is trying to see if there is some way to change the day of voting?

October 29, 2012: is it just me, or is this story one of the more bizarre stories -- a president saying that something an opponent said "hurts  him most" and then doesn't even have his facts straight? Hurts him; emotional over his opponent suggesting that Fiat is moving a production line overseas?

October 29, 2012: McCain has it wrong, saying either a cover-up or incompetency. In fact, it was both. First, gross incompetency, followed by a cover-up. Remember, just as this was going down in Libya, Obama was preparing for a huge campaign event in Nevada.

October 26, 2012: "No-drama-Obama." Navy SEALS told to "stand down" when they said they were requesting permission to respond to Libyan ambassador's aid.


October 25, 2012: quote is accurate; taken out of context -- "I want to build on the progress we've made. Doubling clean energy. I want fuel efficient cars and long-lasting batteries and wind turbines manufactured here in China." Something tells me he mis-read the teleprompter which probably had "...wind turbines manufactured here ... not in China." And the pregnant pause for emphasis. But he's in a hurry. Just reading the teleprompter as fast as he can.

 October 25, 2012: it's starting to become clearer. Either the equivalent of the minimum wage White House operator knew of the events and the president slept through the news; and/or he knew about the murder in near-real time. 

October 24, 2012: it turns out the timing of the  four American deaths was not optimal -- the White House pretty much knew in real time what was going on in Libya; the president had a key political event in Las Vegas, just a few hours later, which he did not cancel; 


October 22, 2012: time to meet with Islamists, but not Israeli prime minister

October 19, 2012: the president quit publishing quarterly reports on effects of stimulus two years early; back in 2011, he quit publishing quarterly reports:

In other words, the Obama administration is required by law to submit quarterly reports on the “stimulus” through the third quarter of 2013.  Yet the administration has apparently found it more convenient to stop after the second quarter of 2011 — more than two years early.  Or perhaps it has just decided to put the release of these reports on hold until after the election.  Either way, the Obama administration is now in violation of the president’s most prominent piece of legislation this side of Obamacare.

October 7, 2012: at various places in the blog I have opined that this is the first election in a long time that I feel very, very comfortable going into (I may be disappointed in the results, but I have no problem with how folks vote in this election). If they like where the country is and where it is headed, they will vote for the incumbent. If they are not happy with the way things are and they are honest with themselves, they can vote for Romney. I am reminded of that by this:

Any fan of Obama who tells you he expected the country to be in this condition at this moment is either lying to you or lying to themselves.

October 7, 2012: There are indications the president is getting bored with being president. 

Perhaps he is. If so, there were certainly signs long before Wednesday night in Denver. A look at the president’s career shows he has never stayed in a job four years without looking to move on to something better. 

Perhaps coming back as the twelfth imam.

September 30, 2012: President Obama referred to the assassination of the US ambassador to Libya as just so much noise. Likewise, he called Iran's goal to "eliminate" Israel was just so much noise. Today, it is being reported that the US marks 2,000 dead in the forgotten war, the Afghanistan war, which has now gone on for eleven years. I assume the president sees that milestone - 2,000 dead in Afghanistan -- as just so much noise. Americans are satisfied; polling suggests four more years.
September 28, 2012: Administration now admits -- Libyan embassy massacre al-Qaeda terrorist attack. If the mainstream media wasn't so in love with this president, this administration would have imploded years ago. President Barack Obama is clearly in over his head.
September 18, 2012: the birthers never give up --

In Honolulu, Zullo worked closely with local contacts, including Duncan Sunahara, the brother of Virginai Sunahara, an infant child born in Hawaii, August 4, 1961, the same day Obama was born. 

As WND reported, Virginia Sunahara entered as a figure in the Obama birth controversy because no birth certificate for her had been located, leading to speculation her birth certificate could have been the source of Obama's.

Where is Paul Drake and Perry Mason when we need them? Erle Stanley Gardner's "The Case of the Bamboozled Birth Certificate."

September 5, 2012: Senator Schumer (D-NY) does not know the president's position on Jerusalem. That's probably truthful. I'm not sure the president knows his position.
September 4, 2012: Obama's favorability number slides; underwater in some polls; are we seeing a rout develop?

September 4, 2012: unable to fill the stadium (74,000), the DNC looks to move whole debacle inside a 20,000-seat indoor arena. The president might still win the election, but there's as good a chance this election will be a rout.
August 26, 2012: the bloodiest day in Syria and folks fault the president for not saying anything. Folks forget. The Nobel peace prize president has already drawn his line in the sand: he does not care how many folks get killed by the Syrian government, as long as the Syrian government does not use chemical weapons.

August 12, 2012: President agrees -- ObamaCare will rip out $700 billion from Medicare. One might as well round that to $1 trillion. President Obama defends cutting $700 billion from Medicare.  Wow. At least seniors now know how ObamaCare is going to be paid for. 

July 22, 2012: NY Times poll -- Romney clearly leads Obama. Negative ads regarding Romney's taxes and Bain do not reverberate with the voters.
July 13, 2012: "You didn't build that." Wow. Not taken out of context.
July 9, 2012: I don't know about you -- I'm not a conspiracy nut, on anything, but one has to admit that for a charismatic young man who went to the best schools and became President of the United States it is amazing how difficult it is to verify his history. Nothing comes easy -- better, yet, "you know, it don't come easy." Now this: a computer error that completely misplaced the president's second year at Columbia. One certainly gets the feeling that this president is re-writing his biography (or someone is doing it for him) well after the fact.  Does anyone really take at "face value," that a computer error completely missed one year of a student who was there on scholarship. Then add to the fact that "no one" remembers seeing this charismatic young black male on campus for an entire year.

July 6, 2012: Obama -- turn off Fox news.  And have another beer.

June 5, 2012: security leaks for votes.  Dems upset with White House. Jackson Browne cools on Obama; won't raise money for DCC this cycle.

June 4, 2012: After stunning jobs figures, Hispanic unemployment jumps to 11%, and surprise in manufacturing drop, Romney gains in popularity; Obama tanks on InTrade.

June 3, 2012: Maureen Dowd starts to turn on Obama.  Bill Clinton defends Romney; turns on Obama? Stunning jobs report, and the administration still cannot mention where America's growth is and will be: fossil fuel energy.  This president is not out of touch; he is an ideologue who is willing to let America fail if he can't have his way. Even his fellow libs see that; this is not unexpected from this source, but it pretty well summarizes what I've been seeing and thinking. Germany's Merkel tells Obama to "pound dirt."
May 21, 2012: Karzai thanks the US taxpayers and Obama pledges continued support. What a farce.  
May 16, 2012: Wisconsin now a toss-up for Obama-Romney. 

May 11, 2012: British press upset that President Obama leaking information on terrorist operations for political reasons. 

Detailed leaks of operational information about the foiled underwear bomb plot are causing growing anger in the US intelligence community, with former agents blaming the Obama administration for undermining national security and compromising the British services, MI6 and MI5.

The Guardian has learned from Saudi sources that the agent was not a Saudi national as was widely reported, but a Yemeni. He was born in Saudi Arabia, in the port city of Jeddah, and then studied and worked in the UK, where he acquired a British passport.

Mike Scheur, the former head of the CIA's Bin Laden unit, said the leaking about the nuts and bolts of British involvement was despicable and would make a repeat of the operation difficult. "MI6 should be as angry as hell. This is something that the prime minister should raise with the president, if he has the balls. This is really tragic," Scheur said.

May 11, 2012: He's no Abraham Lincoln:

Already Obama has indicated that while he believes "same sex couples should be able to get married," he also believes states should be able to ban gay marriages. This is particularly pertinent in light of Tuesday's vote in North Carolina to ban same sex marriage.

The ban overwhelmingly passed. If this was about slavery, would the president be saying he supports "gay freedom" but states should have the right to ban "gay freedom."

May 9, 2012: wow, wow, wow. This is interesting. See note of May 8, 2012. Another state fails to okay civil unions. Colorado is not a swing state, but it's a given that Obama will carry the state ... unless he publicly states he agrees with his vice president on the issue of "gay marriage." This is quite remarkable. 

May 8, 2012: wow, wow, wow. This is interesting.  Over the weekend, the VP mentioned that he was comfortable with "gay marriage." Obama has refused to go along with that, and his press secretary is becoming the butt of jokes over this issue. Former Pennsylvania governor (Democrat) told Obama to "man up" and say whether he supports "gay marriage." To day, the president refuses. Now we know why: North Carolina, with probably a record turnout, soundly voted for state law to ban "gay marriage." It has been reported that North Carolina could be a swing state in November. Based on record turnout and overwhelming disfavor of "gay marriage" in North Carolina, Obama faces great risk supporting "gay marriage."

May 8, 2012: Romney, 49; Obama, 44; but this is why I posted today -- The uptick for Romney comes as investor confidence has fallen six points in the wake of last week’s disappointing jobs report.  Looking ahead five years, just 44% of Americans believe the nation’s economy will be stronger than it is today.  That’s the lowest level of long-term optimism ever measured.

May 6, 2012: "A Clueless Obama Abandons Economic Growth" -- The American Spectator.

May 6, 2012: Supposedly the president knew of Osama bin Laden's hideout since summer of 2010; didn't act until late spring, 2011. Huge credit to our CIA, NSA folks to keep a secret. But the White House, VP, others keeping it a secret. Amazing.
 
May 3, 2012: another "birther" issue, another lawyer.

[Democratic Senate nominee Elizabeth] Warren’s statements come as genealogists at the New England Historic Genealogical Society were unable to back up earlier accounts that her great great great grandmother is Cherokee. While Warren’s great great great grandmother, named O.C. Sarah Smith, is listed on a electronic transcript of a 1894 marriage application as Cherokee, the genealogists are unable to find the actual record or a photographic copy of it, Society spokesman Tom Champoux said. A copy of the marriage license itself has been located, but unlike the application, it does not list Smith’s ethnicity.

Warren listed herself as a minority professor in the Association of American Law Schools desk book from 1986-95 while teaching at the universities of Texas and Pennsylvania.  And now this: her ancestors rounded up Cherokee Indians, 1837: Trail of Tears. 

I guess after she left Texas and Pennsylvania she was no longer part of a minority. 
May 1, 2012: Navy Seals slam Obama for making the Bin Laden mission a political story. For those who don't recall, the president flew the first helicopter, Michelle the second helicopter.

April 30, 2012: Bad economy under Bush? So much worse under Obama -- Bloomberg. One of the longest Bloomberg articles I've seen, and there was not one word about the North Dakota to Texas Renaissance Zone. Incredible.


April 29, 2012: Obama, a bush league president -- Peggy Noonan, WSJ.


April 24, 2012: As senator, Obama skipped votes on student loans; now he wants them extended.

April 23, 2012: Don Lemon, talking head/news reader/Obama supporter, starting to turn on Obama

April 17, 2012: the leader of the Senate "never" takes a bill to the floor without knowing the outcome ahead of time. The vote on the "Buffett Rule" was so lopsided it is clear this bill will never pass in way, shape, or firm. Had nine Republicans voiced support, one can be sure any number of Democrats would have voted to kill it. This is not rocket science.

April 12, 2012: Ann Romney has never worked a day in her life -- Obama. Wow, this got nasty a lot earlier than expected. Five children. Never worked a day in her life.

March 30, 2012: Peggy Noonan, in the Wall Street Journal, has another great analysis of the presidency.

Some data points:

• Those inclined not to like his policies are now inclined not to like him. Huge observation.
• The president is coming across more and more as a trimmer. Devious. Dishonest.
• The shift started January 20, 2012: Catholic Church, health care, unconstitutional; devious solution.
• Open-mic conversation with Russian president: I can do more after the election when I'm not up for re-election again. Joking about it later, sophomoric. Creepy.
• Memorable words form a racially-charged killing: "If I had a son he'd look like Trayvon."
• Health care argument in front of Supreme Court: "The constitutional law professor from the University of Chicago didn't notice the centerpiece of his agenda was not constitutional? How did that happen?
• Regardless of the outcome, he will be seen as having wasted time in 2009 when the economy was .... well, depressing.
• The Supreme Court suggested not political misfeasance but malfeasance.

In terms of a broad electorate, Ms Noonan is not sure he really has a relationship.

From the day Mr. Obama was sworn in, what was on the mind of the American people was financial calamity—unemployment, declining home values, foreclosures. These issues came within a context of some overarching questions: Can America survive its spending, its taxing, its regulating, is America over, can we turn it around?

That's what the American people were thinking about.

But the new president wasn't thinking about that. All the books written about the creation of economic policy within his administration make clear the president and his aides didn't know it was so bad, didn't understand the depth of the crisis, didn't have a sense of how long it would last. They didn't have their mind on what the American people had their mind on.
The president had his mind on health care. And, to be fair-minded, health care was part of the economic story. But only a part! And not the most urgent part. Not the most frightening, distressing, immediate part. Not the 'Is America over?' part.

And then this:

If you jumped into a time machine to the day after the election, in November, 2012, and saw a headline saying "Obama Loses," do you imagine that would be followed by widespread sadness, pain and a rending of garments? You do not. Even his own supporters will not be that sad. It's hard to imagine people running around in 2014 saying, "If only Obama were president!"

Including Mr. Obama, who is said by all who know him to be deeply competitive, but who doesn't seem to like his job that much. As a former president he'd be quiet, detached, aloof. He'd make speeches and write a memoir laced with a certain high-toned bitterness. It was the Republicans' fault.

They didn't want to work with him.

Ms Noonan: Mr. Obama has a largely nonexistent relationship with many, and a worsening relationship with some.

Comment: I've had that same feeling -- he doesn't seem to enjoy being president. Compare to JFK, Ronald Reagan, even Bill Clinton. One had the feeling these guys enjoyed being president. They were optimistic. Had fun. Enjoyed life. Didn't whine. Didn't complain that others weren't working with him. Didn't complain about obstructionists. Oh, well.

March 29, 2012: Obama: "You don't go to Las Vegas on the taxpayer's dime." First family visiting Las Vegas this week. Height of hypocrisy.

It’s spring break for the Obama daughters and mom has taken them West for the week.  Michelle Obama and her daughters visited Mount Rushmore Wednesday to see the monument where  four U.S. presidents are immortalized in stone on the soaring mountainside.

Now the Obamas have arrived in Las Vegas for a private family visit.

At the depths of the recession, President Obama seemed to disparage Las Vegas visits, at one point warning hard-pressed Americans, “You don’t blow a bunch of cash in Vegas when you’re trying to save for college.”

Obama: The feud began in 2009, when Obama admonished corporations using federal bailout money: "You can't go take a trip to Las Vegas or go down to the Super Bowl on the taxpayer's dime."

March 29, 2012: Obama's budget proposal goes down in defeat in the House, 414-0. Not one Democrat supported the president.  In addition, the Bowles-Simpson deficit-reduction plan went down to a crushing defeat; only 16 Republicans and 22 Democrats voted for it. Darn those Republican obstructionists.

March 8, 2012: 77 percent of those polled says price of gasoline #1 issue going into the election. Ya think?

March 1, 2012: Gingrich vs Obama on energy. The American Spectator. I.N.C.R.E.D.I.B.L.E.

February 10, 2012: an old clip, but a reader sent this to me today, reminding me what the liberal agenda is --- like Chavez, to nationalize US oil companies. Of course, it won't happen, but they would sure like to.
Maxine 'how did she ever get elected' Waters
February 10, 2012: Obama flips-flops -- says he won't make Catholic Church provide birth control; will require the health insurance companies that provide coverage for Catholic Church entities to provide birth control; it will be interesting to see if this ends the controversy. This articulates the issue perfectly.

February 7, 2012: Obama flips-flops -- becomes a huge fan of Super PACs. That takes that populist sound bite out of the equation.

January 25, 2012: slow-rolling the oil and gas industry since 2008. Nothing will change. This is the man who killed the Keystone, and who is threatening to kill hydraulic fracturing. The link is to the a story on the president's state of the union speech in which he says the supports the oil and gas industry.

January 18, 2012: Thank goodness for the internet. Potty training since the 1960's.  Link inappropriate for children and Sunday School marms.

January 15, 2012: It appears the race is on! Romney to win in South Carolina -- after that, it's all over. Obama sees this. He went to church today, third time in the past four weeks.

November 29, 2011: Obama's job approval drops below Carter's.

President Obama's slow ride down Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has finally passed below Jimmy Carter, earning Obama the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history.

November 28, 2011: Obama will throw the white working class under the bus.

November 20, 2011: The SuperCommittee to solve the deficit problem will end with a whimper, having solved nothing. Those automatic cuts --- don't hold your breath. They don't take effect for one year, during which time Congress is free to rescind them. The whole thing, as usual, has been a charade, political theater. But this is fortunate for investors. Had either the SuperCommittee succeeded, or the cuts taken effect January 1, 2012, the stock market would have plunged. Now it's business as usual for investors; my hunch is that the market will see the failure of the SuperCommittee as a positive sign for investing.

November 15, 2011: The US Postal Service says it will run out of money next September, two months before the national election. [August 19, 2012: in fact, the USPS is technically insolvent; it has missed a required health care payment, first time ever; and, has said it will miss the next one also. Interestingly, no one seems to care.]

November 15, 2011: See the September 16, 2011, entry -- by killing Keystone XL it is clear that jobs is not Obama's number one priority. Other sources say that unions are livid, that the Keystone XL was killed; it would have provided 20,000 direct jobs according to one source.

September 19, 2011: Chicago Tribune -- Obama should not run for re-election.

September 16, 2011: Clearly the job situation -- or more accurately, the jobless situation -- in the summer of 2011 -- is all of Obama's making. Florida, Texas, and North Dakota prove that jobs can be made and can be had in this economy. But Obama's job plan: a) redistribute the wealth (tax the rich); b) extend unemployment benefits past 99 weeks (already a US record); c) distribute tax money to save state employee jobs (half-trillion dollar teachers' bill in summer, 2011); d) beat the drum incessantly against big business; and, e) do what he can to destroy Big Oil, the only domestic industry that can generate the number of jobs and type of jobs the administration is looking for (high pay, high tech, and huge potential for all)

September 16, 2011: Obama hits all-time low -- ABC News -- 43% approve, but it's the independents that has the White House concerned:

As concerns about the struggling U.S. economy grow, a new CBS News/New York poll finds that President Obama's overall approval rating has dropped to 43 percent, the lowest so far of his presidency in CBS News polling. In addition, his disapproval rating has reached an all-time high of 50 percent.

Views of the president's job performance are marked by a striking degree of polarization along party lines -- the vast majority of Democrats approve (78 percent), while even more Republicans disapprove (89 percent) of how he's handling his job. But only 37 percent of independents approve, with 54 percent disapproving.

Except for a notable spike in approval after the killing of Osama bin Laden in May, President Obama's approval rating has been below 50 percent since the spring of 2010.

Not surprisingly, the down economy has had a clear impact on Mr. Obama's approval rating. [Comment: well, duh.]

September 14, 2011: Buyer's Remorse (Drudge headline): most prefer Hillary over Obama.

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The Campaign: It's Starting to Look A Lot Like a Tsunami

August 16, 2012: building their own new mom-and-pop bakery, open three months, refused to have VP Joe Biden stop by for a re-election photo-op.
August 9, 2012: coal miners' union will sit out this election. Obama succeeded in killing the coal industry. 

August 9, 2012: Goldman Sachs, GE employees drop Obama; go with Romney. Obama hates those who build wealth; if "you own a business, you didn't build it."

August 9, 2012: Now they're just plain lying. The cancer ad lie.  And if it wasn't for Drudge, no one would know. It will be interesting to see if mainstream media picks this up.

************************

Five Things a Street-Smart Thug Might Say

"We will keep a heel on the neck of BP."

"We will kill the coal industry."

"Romney might be a felon."

"He has a business, but he didn't build it."

"The Keystone XL needs to be killed."

************************

Quotes from the President

I ceased to advertise my mother’s race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites. 
--Barack Hussein Obama, “Dreams of My Father” 

I found solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother’s race. 
--Barack Hussein Obama, “Dreams of My Father” 

There was something about him that made me wary, a little too sure of himself, maybe. And white. 
--Barack Hussein Obama, “Dreams of My Father” 

I never emulate white men and brown men whose fates didn’t speak to my own. It was into my father’s image, the black man, son of Africa, that I’d packed all the attributes I sought in myself, the attributes of Martin and Malcolm, DuBois and Mandela.” 
--Barack Hussein Obama, “Dreams of My Father” 

I will stand with Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction. 
--Barack Hussein Obama, “Audacity of Hope” 

"To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully: the more politically active black students, the foreign students, the Chicanos, the Marxist professors and structural feminists." 
--Barack Hussein Obama 

"I learned to slip back and forth between my black and white worlds. One of those tricks I had learned: People were satisfied so long as you were courteous and smiled and made no sudden moves. They were more than satisfied; they were relieved -- such a pleasant surprise to find a well-mannered young black man who didn't seem angry all the time." 
--Barack Hussein Obama 

"If [black] nationalism could create a strong and effective insularity, deliver on its promise of self-respect, then the hurt it might cause well-meaning whites, or the inner turmoil it caused people like me, would be of little consequence." 
--Barack Hussein Obama 

They bring a knife. We bring a gun. 
--Barack Hussein Obama 

I don’t want to quell anger. I think people are right to be angry. I’m angry. 
--Barack Hussein Obama 

Hit back twice as hard. 
--Barack Hussein Obama 

Punish your enemies. 
--Barack Hussein Obama 
******************

Twelve Reasons to Vote for Obama

When your family or friends cannot explain why they voted for Barack Obama, give  them this list.  Then they can then pick a reason from this "TOP 12"...

1. I voted for Barack Obama because I love the fact that I can now marry whatever I want.

 I've decided to marry my German Shepherd.

2. I voted for Barack Obama because I believe oil companies' profits of 4% on a gallon of gas are obscene, but the government taxing the same gallon of gas at 15% isn't.

3. I voted for Barack Obama because I believe the government will do a better job of spending the money I earn than I would.

4. I voted for Barack Obama because Freedom of Speech is fine as long as nobody is offended by it.

5. I voted for Barack Obama because I'm way too irresponsible to own a gun, and I know that my local police are all I need to protect me from murderers and thieves.

6. I voted for Barack Obama because I believe that people who can't tell us if it will rain on Friday can tell us that the polar ice caps will melt away in ten years if I don't start driving a Prius.

7. I voted for Barack Obama because I'm not concerned about millions of babies being aborted so long as we keep all death row inmates alive.

8. I voted for Barack Obama because I think illegal aliens have a right to free health care, education, and Social Security benefits, and we should take away the social security from those who paid into it.

9. I voted for Barack Obama because I believe that businesses should not be allowed to make profits for themselves. They need to break even and give the rest away to the government for redistribution as the Democrats see fit.

10. I voted for Barack Obama because I believe liberal judges need to rewrite the Constitution every few days to suit some fringe kooks who would never get their agendas past the voters.

11. I voted for Barack Obama because I think that it's better to pay billions to people who hate us for their oil, but not drill our own because it might upset some endangered beetle, gopher or fish.

12. I voted for Barack Obama because my head is so firmly planted up my ass, it's unlikely that I'll ever have another point of view.

And then there's Al Franken (not to be confused with Al Sharpton)

Al Franken on rape: “And, ‘I give the pills to Lesley Stahl. Then, when Lesley’s passed out, I take her to the closet and rape her.’ Or, ‘That’s why you never see Lesley until February.’ Or, ‘When she passes out, I put her in various positions and take pictures of her.’”

Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe: October 21, 2012

Jeff Jacoby's article in today's Boston Globe is priceless. My hunch is that sentient folks voting for President Obama this time around will be able to rationalize every thing Jeff has to say about the president. 

And what about all those other values you counted on Obama to uphold?

On the campaign trail, his top priority was to codify Roe v. Wade. “The first thing I’d do as president is sign the Freedom of Choice Act,” he declared. Once in office, it dropped from his agenda.

You trusted Obama when he said his administration would be “the most open and transparent in history.” Instead it launched an unprecedented crackdown on whistleblowers and leaks, and retreated into a “bubble of non-accountability.”

And that's just for starters.