Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Random Update Of Some CLR/Oakdale Wells -- July 29, 2014


December 30, 2017: a reader made this comment at another post regarding the Whitman wells -
Speaking of CLR, remember the Whitman wells in Oakdale field?
2-34H has produced 1.59 million barrels of oil since Sept 2011.
Drilling on 3-34H was stopped due to unsafe pressures and drilling conditions. It has finally been drilled to depth and completed. 61 stages, 14.5 million lbs proppant, 234 thousand barrels fluid. Production to date not impressive. At least not yet. 12,150 BBLS Oil in 21 days. 
Original Post
A reader happened to mention that he was not impressed with the Whitman wells and wondered why I didn't post the results of "all" the Whitman wells. I have posted the results of "all" the Whitman wells that have come off confidential list, but that's another story.

What piqued my interest was to hear that the Whitman wells did not impress him/her. So I went back and updated the wells in the general area of the Whitman wells when they were first making news. Here is the result of the update:
  • 17061, 664, CLR/BR, Whitman 11-34H, 34-147-96, Oakdale, AL, t6/10; cum 436K 11/17;
  • 17079, 559, CLR/BR, Carson Peak 44-2H, 2-146-96, Oakdale, AL, t6/08; cum 288K 11/17;
  • 17334, 811, CLR, Morris 1-23H, 23-147-96, Oakdale, AL, t11/08; cum 270K 11/17;
  • 18275, 1,020, CLR, Hawkinson 1-22H, 22-147-96, Oakdale, t2/10; cum 701K 11/17;
  • 18858, 715, CLR, Morris 3-26H, 26-147-96, Oakdale, AL, t5/11; cum 458K 11/17;
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, 26-147-96, Oakdale, AL, t5/11; cum 636K 11/17;
  • 18860, 517, CLR, Morris 2-26H, 26-147-96, Oakdale, AL, t5/11; cum 285K 11/17;
  • 18861, 759, CLR, Carson Peak 2-35H, 26-147-96, Oakdale, AL, t5/11; cum 682K 11/17;
  • 20208, 960, CLR, Hawkinson 2-27H, 34-147-96, Oakdale, t9/11; cum 443K 11/17;
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, 34-147-96, Oakdale, 4 sections, t9/11; cum 1.1595 million bbls 11/7
  • 20211, 263, CLR, Hawkinson 3-27H, 34-147-96, Oakdale, 4 sections, t9/11; cum 385K 11/17;
  • 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, 34-147-96, Oakdale, F, t9/11; cum 135K 11/17;(see comment above)
The original post is here: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2012/09/this-was-sent-to-me-as-comment.html

I generally don't update data in two different locations, so I will probably use the 09/2012 post as the post that will be updated.

To find the other Whitman /Hawkinson / Morris / etc wells, simply use the blog search app to find them. If they have come off the confidential list and reported by NDIC on a daily activity report, the results are posted on the blog. Guaranteed.

For newbies, in case you missed it, one of the Whitman wells has now produced more than 1,000,000 (one million) bbls. Another is up to 600,000 bbls after just four years. In contrast, it took 30 to 40 years for wells from other formations in the Williston Basin to reach these numbers. In addition, there are a lot of DRY wells when targeting other formations in the Williston Basin. There are "no" dry wells in the Bakken (regular readers know why I put the "no" in quotations).

I didn't notice this until now; some of the highly prolific Hawkinson/Whitman wells are still flowing without a pump (AL = artificial lift/pump). Teegue pointed out long ago that some wells listed as still flowing (F) may, in fact, be on a pump; sometimes the paperwork is slow in getting to the NDIC.

It's in the eyes of the beholder whether these are good wells or not.

I hope to repeat another posting regarding this subject -- something I've blogged about before -- if the spirit moves me and I find a slow day in the Bakken. I thought today was going to be a slow day and then everything hit right at the end of the day.

Oh, I had not even noticed that. Look at the IPs when you look at the total production of these wells.

My use only; not for general public

What does a 500K well mean for a mineral owner?

Let's say the mineral owner has 25 acres and the spacing unit is 2560 acres, which many of these are.

Let's say the mineral owner gets 20% royalties on all produced oil (I believe royalties generally run between 1/8th and 3/8ths).

Let's say the average price of oil was $75/bbl. My readers tell me that the better operators are averaging much better than $75/bbl.

So, for 500,000 bbls:

(25/2560) * 20% * $75 * 500,000 = $73,000.

Twenty-five acres is an extremely small holding; it would not be unusual for an original landowner to have one section (640 acres):

(640/2560) * 20% * $75 * 500,000 = $1,875,000.

And this well will keep producing for 30 more years (at a significantly lesser rate).

In addition, the mineral owner would have gotten the "bonus" for leasing the mineral acres in the first place, perhaps $2,000/acre, so before they even drilled a well, the 25-acre mineral owner would get $50,000 for the lease. The one-section owner would get $1,280,000.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. I used a calculator but did not triple check all results.

Getting Ready For Tomorrow -- Posted July 29, 2014

Will GM need another bailout? Reuters is reporting:
General Motors  was hit Tuesday with a lawsuit brought on behalf of more than 650 people allegedly injured or killed in accidents involving cars that have been recalled this year for faulty ignition switches.
The lawsuit was filed in Manhattan federal court, where dozens of cases against GM over the switch recall have been consolidated. It names a total of 658 plaintiffs, including 29 who are bringing claims on behalf of people who died.
Since the beginning of the year, GM has recalled nearly 15 million vehicles worldwide over potentially defective ignition switches. The company has set up a program, run by lawyer Kenneth Feinberg, to compensate victims of crashes involving about 2.6 million of those cars, mostly Cobalts, Ions and other small cars that it linked to 54 crashes and 13 deaths.
Futures: futures mean "squat," of course, but it's always interesting to see where they stand. The "mini" Dow futures are up 23 points; and, WTI crude oil has stopped its free fall, rising slightly to just above $101. For mineral owners, the higher the price the better (in general), for investors, not necessarily so. One wants the price of oil to be in the sweet spot, near the bottom of the hedge/collar.

The Wall Street Journal

President Obama makes another speech. Headline story.

EU, US expand sanctions on Russia.

Twitter silences naysayers as users surge.

Consumer confidence rises.

Watch for tomorrow's GDP report.

Now that GOP leader Boehner said no more talk of impeachment, President Obama considers fewer deportations.

Highway bill a mess.

The road to New England (and the autobahn to Germany): President Barack Obama's proposed carbon-emissions rule for the nation's power plants will create new cost and reliabiltiy challenges for the US electricity system, according to federal energy regulators.
Now to worry: presidents come and go. Less than 910 days.

Top doc treating Ebola dies. Tragic loss.

Palestine without power after Israel strikes power plant; no one except the press notices.

HUGE STORY: IRS blesses telecom's REIT turn.

President Obama, Nobel Peace Prize winner, is sending more Hellfire missiles to Iraq.

The road to New England / the autobahn to Germany: German lighting manufacturer Osram licht plans to shed roughtly 7,800 jobs at home and abroad to save costs.

Amgen plans to cut workforce by 12% to 15% -- didn't we just see a survey that said American consumer confidence rises. Maybe not so fast.

China's stocks are soaring as investors scoop up investments in one of the world's cheapest markets.

The Los Angeles Journal

Out here in Los Angeles, homeowners are allowed to water their lawns for 8 minutes three nights a week. Golf courses have no restrictions except to water only at night, but unlimited amount of watering. And then a 1921-era water main breaks in west Los Angeles (Hollywood) and spilling more than 5 million gallons/hour. When I last checked, more than 10 million gallons of water had flooded the streets, UCLA's Pauley Pavilion, and nearby schools. Google LA flood for more.

Reporting Tomorrow
 Although some of may have changed their report dates.

Murphy Oil (MUR)
Phillips 66 (PSX)
Questar (STR)
Southern Company (SO)
Sprint (S)
Tenaris (TEN.MI)
Valero (VLO)
Whiting (WLL)
Williams Cos (WMB)

Five-Year-Production-By-Well; Rambling, Random Update Of The Very First 24 Wells That I Reported On, Coming Off The Confidential List -- July 29, 2014

The First 24 -- 1H2010

Since January 25, 2010, I have recorded every well that has been reported in North Dakota. The list starts here (1H10) (click on "the list starts here").

For the past couple of days, I've been updating the very first wells, the wells that were reported in 2010, which correctly or incorrectly I list as 1H10 (which is linked above).

It takes a lot of time to do this manually, but I do it because it gives me a "feel" for the Bakken. I haven't completely finished the list but I've done a lot of it, updating the total amount produced by each well as of 4/14 or 5/15, which at the time of updating was the most recent data available from the NDIC.

If one scrolls through the list, it is incredibly interesting all the things one can note. Randomly, in no particular order or importance attached to any of the data points. These are some things that jump out at me:

1. How incredibly young the Bakken boom is. These wells were all tested (which means they were spud not too much earlier -- 6 months or so) in 2009 or 2010.

2. How incredibly few permits, once issued, were cancelled.

3. How few -- as in almost "none" -- wells were DRY. As I said from the beginning: there are "no" dry Bakken wells.

4. The incredible difference in production among Bakken wells compared to Spearfish wells, compared to Madison wells, compared to wells from other formations.

5. They may not be dry, but are they economical. I've discussed that before also. Even low-producing wells serve a purpose, and in the "old" days any producer "held a lease by production." Not how few -- none -- of the wells are abandoned or plugged. They are all active. 

6. Many of the early wells were short laterals; now the standard is long laterals, twice as long. I don't necessarily buy into it, but some folks suggest that a horizontal well twice as long will produce twice as much oil as a horizontal half the length, all things being equal. Again, these are mostly short lateral wells. I think most of these wells, based on the operator (except for EOG) were long laterals.

7. These wells were drilled when time was of the essence, to save the leases before they expired.

8. The technology back in 2009 and 2010 was definitely much different than the technology in 2014. Regular readers know how much better the technology has become. In the beginning of the boom, we talked about one-stage fracks. Then 8 stages; then 12 stages; now up to 24, and 36, and 60 stages.

9. The decline rates are atrocious, but they are improving over time, as the technology gets better.

10. When these wells were being drilled, the companies were barely into delineating the Bakken. To some extent, these were all "wildcats," although not in the strict definition, but operators were still sorting things out.

11. I have data that goes all the way back to 2006 but that data is on Excel spreadsheets and not posted on the blog; maybe someday I will update data from the beginning of the boom, but manually it takes a long, long time.

12. I don't think it's a stretch to say that every one of these wells might have had three times the production by now had they all been long laterals (and maybe they all were long laterals; I haven't checked); and using all the new technology and better completion methods.

So, scroll through the wells at the link (1H10, above) to get a feeling of what went on back then and the total production to date.

Here are the very first wells I ever recorded at the blog as they were being reported. The names of the wells do not matter. The third column is the oil field; the fourth column is month/year when the well was tested; the fifth column was the month/year when I updated total production; the last column, in 1000's of bbls, is total production to date (fifth column).

These happen to be all Bakken wells. By this point in the Bakken boom, they were not drilling much else. But look at those cumulative production numbers (last column). 

18369 BEXP Rosebud 1/10 5/14 187
18324 BEXP Painted Woods 1/10 5/14 213
18232 Hunt Ross 1/10 4/14 337
18014 Zavanna Stony Creek 1/10 4/14 145
18082 WLL Alger 7/9 4/14 110
17996 EOG Burke 7/9 5/14 20
17972 EOG Parshall 8/9 5/14 297
17933 EOG Parshall 8/9 4/14 250
17828 EOG Parshall 8/9 4/14 132
17727 EOG Sanish 8/9 4/14 149
17984 OXY USA Simon Butte 8/9 4/14 56
18188 Slawson Van Hook 9/9 4/14 222
18153 MRO Big Bend 9/9 4/14 290
18298 Whiting Sanish 10/9 4/14 565
17080 Whiting Sanish 10/9 4/14 369
18209 Murex Sanish 11/9 4/14 443
18233 Whiting Sanish 11/9 4/14 216
17881 Tracker Little Knife 12/9 5/14 189
18214 EOG Ross 12/9 4/14 175
18301 EOG Parshall 12/9 4/14 108
18262 Hess Manitou 12/9 4/14 213
18238 Murex Sanish 12/9 5/14 377
18213 Whiting Sanish 12/9 4/14 446

I consider, right or wrong, that the wells paid for themselves when they hit 100K bbls total production.

You know, seriously, take a look at those wells. They were not cherry-picked. They were the first 23 or 24 wells that were reported at that time (some were reported by the operator and are "out of order" -- in other words, the sequence will not agree with NDIC's database).

But there is nothing cherry-picked; just as I got them and recorded them.

Look at those total production numbers. Remember, the consensus is that Bakken wells will go on producing for 39 years. The oldest well in that list (07/2009) is less than five years old.

A long, long time ago I talked about initial production (the first year or so) and the EURs. I will talk about that in a later post.

But again, these are the very first wells I ever posted as they came off the confidential list back in 2010. Now that the Bakken boom is seven years old in North Dakota, we can start looking at total production and EURs.

Over time, I will continue to post updates, the next 24, the next 24 after that, etc.

The First 30 Permits -- 2006

Now compare the wells above with the first 30 permits in 2006. (Remember: the Bakken boom began in 2007 in North Dakota):

16054 XTO/Headington St Demetrius 10/6 5/14 32
16055 XTO/Headington Capa 9/6 5/14 246
16056 Whiting PNC Duperow

16057 Whiting
Red River 4/7 5/14 7
16058 CLR
Tyler 7/6 5/14 23
16059 Petro-Hunt Charlson 10/6 5/14 1444
16060 Whiting PNC Red River

16061 Berenergy
Madison 3/6 5/14 69
16062 Sinclair TA Red River 2/7 5/14 0.9
16063 Whiting
Birdbear 5/6 5/14 117
16064 CLR
Red River 8/10 5/14 42
16065 Onxy Oil Dry Madison

16066 Ballantyne Dry Madison

16067 Petro Harvester Madison 8/8 5/14 60
16068 Whiting Sanish 5/6 5/14 169
16069 Zenergy Dry Madison

16070 Oasis
Madison 4/6 5/14 57
16071 Armstrong
Duperow 1/6 5/14 93
16072 CLR
Midale/Nesson 3/6 5/14 85
16073 Kaiser-Francis PNC Duperow

16074 Jed Oil PNC Juno

16075 XTO
Bullsnake 6/6 5/14 62
16076 XTO
Mondak 6/6 5/14 66
16077 Slawson Loc Madison

16078 Kaiser-Francis
Duperow 5/6 5/14 28
16079 Kaiser-Francis PNC Duperow

16080 Hess
Beaver Lodge 6/6 5/14 28
16081 Whiting PNC Sanish

16082 Petro Harvester  Madison 2/6 5/14 166
16083 Hess
Capa 2/7 5/14 198


Of the 30 wells listed above, 20 were non-Bakken wells.

Note how many non-Bakken wells were dry. There are "no" dry wells in the Bakken.

Note how poor most of  the non-Bakken wells turned out to be.

Note the Charlson Bakken well that has produced almost 1.5 million bbls of oil to date. 

The First 30 Permits -- 2007

The North Dakota Bakken boom began in 2007. These are the first 30 permits (but again, not all drilled/completed in this order):

Whiting TAO Madison 6/7 5/14 0.1
Madison 3/7 5/14 118
Red River 6/7 5/14 82
Chimney Butte 6/7 5/14 123
Corral Creek 4/7 5/14 277
Fidelity IA Pierre 8/7
Fidelity NG Pierre 8/7 5/14 0
Fidelity NG Pierre 8/7 5/14 0
Fidelity NG Pierre 8/7 5/14 0
Fidelity NG Pierre 8/7 5/14 0
Red River 4/7 5/14 84
Red River 6/1 5/14 118
Whiting Dry Red River

Panamerican Madison 4/7 5/14 28
PDC EXP Madison

OXY/Ansbro Willmen 5/7 5/14 48
OXY/Ansbro Madison 6/7 5/14 38
Red River 10/7 5/14 2
Whiting PNC Madison

Upton PNC Tyler

Upton TA Tyler

Red River 7/7 5/14 185
Red River 7/7 5/14 222
CLR IA Red River 8/7 5/14 386
Zenergy PNC Madison

Blue Buttes 6/7 5/14 180
Parshall 7/7 5/14 445
Red River 6/7 5/14 318
Parshall 5/8 5/14 366
Nance Dry Madison


1. 24 of the 30 were non-Bakken wells.
2. The Red River has some incredibly good wells, and they are much less expensive to drill.
3. EOG is starting to hit on some huge Bakken wells.

The First 30 Permits -- 2008

17000 CLR
Red River 12/9 5/14 254
17001 CLR
Red River 11/8 5/14 85
17002 CLR
Red River 12/8 5/14 34
17003 Kodiak
Twin Buttes 12/9 5/14 20
17004 CLR
Red River 6/8 5/14 94
17005 EOG
Parshall 7/8 5/14 369
17006 Samson PNC Baukol N

17007 Hess
Ross 5/8 5/14 130
17008 Marathon
Sanish 8/8 5/14 40
17009 Peak
McGregory Buttes 6/8 5/14 163
17010 Hess
Ross 5/8 5/14 132
17011 EOG
Parshall 8/8 5/14 415
17012 Hunt
Parshall 6/8 5/14 286
17013 Prima IA Midale/Nesson 7/8 47
17014 Hess TA/ND Wildcat

17015 XTO IA Manitou 7/8

17016 Armstrong Dry Madison

17017 XTO
Manitou 5/8 5/14 25
17018 Brigham
Alger 6/8 5/14 92
17019 EOG
Parshall 6/9 5/14 410
17020 Hess
Hawkeye 5/8 5/14 315
17021 Tracker
Murphy Creek 6/8 5/14 128
17022 Murex
Sanish 5/8 5/14 247
17023 Whiting
Sanish 5/8 5/14 683
17024 Peak
Mandaree 5/8 5/14 155
17025 PDC PNC Madison

17026 EOG
Parshall 10/9 5/14 50
17027 EOG PNC Wildcat

17028 EOG
Parshall 10/8 5/14 499

1. We are now well into the Bakken boom which is just beginning.
2. Even so, 7 of 30 wells were non-Bakken wells.
3. Several of the Bakken wells have done very, very well (286K, 315K, 410K, 415K, 683K).
4. These wells are about 6 years old (as of 7/14).
5. Note again: almost every early Bakken well is still active; if nothing else, even these poorly performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

The First 30 Permits -- 2009

17946 Newfield
Fertile Valley 9/9 5/14 34
17947 Timberline Dry Madison

17948 Encore PNC Birdbear

17949 EOG
Stanley 7/9 5/14 51
17950 EOG
Alger 7/9 5/14 111
17951 EOG
Parshall 6/10 5/14 50
17952 SM Energy Siverston 6/9 5/14 149
17953 XTO/Encore Killdeer 4/10 5/14 265
17954 Hess
Manitou 7/9 5/14 84
17955 CLR PNC Wildcat

17956 Hess
Big Butte 8/9 5/14 169
17957 PDC EXP Madison

17958 PDC EXP Wildcat

17959 PDC
Lostwood 7/10 5/14 26
17960 Williston Hunter/Eagle WI Madison

17961 OXY/Anschutz Simon Butte 2/10 5/14 100
17962 Hess
Ross 6/9 5/14 126
17963 Hess
Manitou 5/9 5/14 102
17964 Whiting
Sanish 6/9 5/14 124
17965 CLR
Mary 6/10 5/14 92
17966 Marathon Reunion Bay 6/9 5/14 121
17967 Marathon Dry Murphy Creek

17968 Zenergy PNC Elidah

17969 Baytex (formerly Samson) PNC Ambrose

17970 BR TF Keene 4/9 5/14 146
17971 Marathon Murphy Creek 9/9 5/14 118
17972 EOG
Parshall 8/9 5/14 297
17973 BR IA Camel Butte 11/9 5/14 160
17974 BR TF Keene 6/9 5/14 393
17975 Zenergy
Eagle Nest 7/9 5/14 77

1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about two years, there is no dramatic change yet.
2. Even so, 4 of 30 wells were non-Bakken wells.
3. Only a couple of the wells are interesting; it shows the tenacity of the operators to keep spending huge amounts of money to figure out the Bakken.
4. These wells are still about 6 years old (as of 7/14).
5. We now see an occasional Three Forks well; surprisingly there was a dry Bakken well.
6. Note again: almost every early Bakken well is still active; if nothing else, even these poorly performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

The First 30 Permits -- 2010

18571 EOG
Clear Water 8/10 4/15 82
18572 Tracker PNC Little Knife

18573 XTO
Midway 7/10 4/15 115
18574 Slawson
Big Bend 12/10 4/15 172
18575 Slawson
Big Bend 6/11 4/15 298
18576 BR/Tracker Little Knife 2/11 4/15 139
18577 Hunt
Ross 8/10 4/15 253
18578 Eagle
Madison 7/10 4/15 32
18579 SM Energy Bear Den 12/10 4/15 363
18580 SM Energy Dimmick 5/10 4/15 89
18581 Newfield
East Fork 4/11 4/15 75
18582 BR Conf Corral Creek

18583 XTO EXP Corral Creek

18584 CLR
Wildcat 7/10 4/15 90
18585 EOG
Ross 10/10 4/15 69
18586 CLR
Dolphin  7/10 4/15 134
18587 BEXP
Briar Creek 7/10 4/15 169
18588 Marathon
Bailey 6/10 5/14 111
18589 Slawson
Big Bend 5/10 5/14 407
18590 Slawson IA Big Bend 8/10 5/14 236
18591 Marathon
Murphy Creek 7/10 5/14 105
18592 EOG PNC Clear Water

18593 Oasis
Cottonwood 6/12 5/14 119
18594 EOG
Squaw Creek 9/10 5/14 128
18595 Slawson
Van Hook 7/10 5/14 318
18596 EOG PNC Clear Water

18597 EOG PNC Clear Water

18598 CLR
Hamlet 4/10 5/14 97
18599 Anschutz
Crooked Creek 1/11 5/14 105
18600 Cirque EXP Dimond

1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about three years, there is no dramatic change yet.
2. However, now operators are drilling the Bakken almost exclusively; only one of the first 30 permits in 2010 was for a non-Bakken well.
3. Like 2009, only a couple of the wells are interesting, and then just barely; it shows the tenacity of the operators to keep spending huge amounts of money to figure out the Bakken.
4. These wells are still about 5 years old (as of 7/14).
5. The operators must be watching their permitted locations more closely; several Bakken permits were canceled.
6. Note again: every drilled Bakken well is still active. If nothing else, these performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

The First 30 Permits -- 2011

20247 Newfield PNC Fertile Valley

20248 Murex
West Bank 10/11 5/14 87
20249 Murex Madison Madison 8/11 5/14 7
20250 XTO
West Capa 3/13 5/14 127
20251 CLR/Samson Resources Kinberly 12/11 5/14 67
20252 HRC/Petro-Hunt Eagle Nest 6/12 5/14 80
20253 Petro-Hunt Eagle Nest 6/12 5/14 243
20254 EOG
Parshall 12/11 5/14 215
20255 EOG
Parshall 4/12 5/14 221
20256 CLR
Little Knife 7/11 5/14 135
20257 KOG
Mandaree 4/14 5/14 35
20258 KOG
Mandaree 4/14 5/14 39
20259 KOG
Mandaree 4/14 5/14 16
20260 EOG
Ross 1/12 5/14 295
20261 CLR
Little Knife 8/11 5/14 60
20262 Hunt
Parshall 7/11 5/14 131
20263 Newfield Fertile Valley 9/11 5/14 68
20264 Newfield PNC Bar Butte

20265 CLR
Jim Creek 9/11 5/14 78
20266 SM
Banks 3/12 5/14 82
20267 Slawson Van Hook 9/11 5/14 279
20268 Prima
Rennie Lake 11/11 5/14 44
20269 Petro-Hunt Four Bears 6/11 5/14 241
20270 Petro-Hunt Pronghorn 8/11 5/14 118
20271 QEP
DWCB 12/11 5/14 130
20272 Hess/Tracker Truax 10/11 5/14 166
20273 XTO
Heart Butte 9/12 5/14 153
20274 MRO
DWCB 11/11 5/14 191
20275 Oasis
Wildcat 7/11 5/14 186
20276 Enduro/Sequel Flat Top Butte 4/12 5/14 29

1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about four years now, maybe, just maybe we are starting to see a trend: consistently good wells, in the 150K - 200K range after three to four years of production. .
2. Operators are drilling the Bakken almost exclusively; one one of the first 30 permits in 2011 was for a non-Bakken well.
3. Be very careful in looking at the total production; this is the first year in which there is a wide disparity when the wells were completed/tested. Two of the wells were completed just a month ago (4/14).
5. DWCB: Deep Water Creek Bay.
6. Note again: every drilled Bakken well is still active. If nothing else, these performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

Wells with permits issued in 2012 are too new to be added to this group yet.

The Obama Legacy: 400 Parts Per Million -- Oh, Not That One. This One: For First Time In US History, The Average Price Of Electricty Exceeds 14 Cents/KWH -- July 29, 2014

Two readers sent the link to this story "simultaneously" earlier today: the average price of electricity in US climbs to all-time record.

Electricity prices always peak in the summer but much of this year's increase is due to unnecessary political mandates. In every case in which CO2 emissions were invoked, the political mandates simply made "someone" feel better. If you don't believe me, check out the wiki site with regard to coal-fired plants around the world. The US is hardly in the hunt. It's all about China. Even the fact that Germany is now returning to coal is but a drop in the bucket, or perhaps a better analogy, a briquet in a 10-pound bag, I suppose, compared to what China is doing.

I went through the list yesterday and it was mind-boggling. My hunch is that not one elementary school teach who talks about global warming has ever gone through the list, line by line. I doubt Algore has even gone through the list. I had difficulty getting through the list, just trying to pronouce the Chinese names.

Now back to the first story linked above, the one that tells us that "the average price of electricity in US climbs to all-time record." I will bet that story will not be on any of the mainstream nightly news stations tonight.

The article begins (and has a nice graphic):
For the first time ever, the average price for a kilowatthour (KWH) of electricity in the United States has broken through the 14-cent mark, climbing to a record 14.3 cents in June, according to data released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Before this June, the highest the average price for a KWH had ever gone was 13.7 cents, the level it hit in June, July, August and September of last year.
If you like paying 14-cent-kwh, you can send a thank-you note to those you know who support wind and solar. Without wind and solar mandates, your utility bill would be trending down -- all things being equal, as I like to say. 

Americans will not complain about this (new record). First of all, they know how good they have it; some of the lowest rates in the world, and a very, very dependable grid. Knock on wood.

The interesting thing is that for many Americans, the percentage spent on electricity might be going down; I don't know. But electric appliances are becoming more and more efficient. Upper middle class, and to some extent middle class, are eating out more and more, cutting utility expenses associated with cooking, cleaning, and washing. Of course, if they are smart, they will also turn off the air conditioning while they are out, saving a few more pennies.

The few folks who have EVs can save money by charging them at work; if they live close enough to their job site, the round trip might be such they don't have to charge at home. The rich can even make money by installing solar panels and selling electricity back to the utilities.

The middle class will feel it a bit, but not enough to write their Congresswoman. The folks most affected are the lower middle class and the poor. There may be programs to help those folks who have difficulty paying their utility bills. If not, that's something the Federal government could start doing. I've always thought, everyone in the US should get "x" amount of water, electricity, and internet for free. And popcorn. And beverage of one's choice. Everything above "x" amount would then come at a price. People with incomes equal to or greater than that of Bill Gates or Warren Buffett would not be allowed to participate. In fact, they could subsidize the "x" amount for the rest of us.  In Warren's case, it would be in the form of Coca-Cola; in Bill's case, internet.

But I digress.

Hey, by the way, all those wind farms and solar farms -- there's a silver lining in those farms. I'm working on a blog regarding that silver lining but haven't had the energy to complete it.

Speaking of wind farms and solar farms: have you gone back and looked at the linked article: the average price of electricity in US climbs to all-time record?

Quick: after a gazillion dollars in subsidies, grants, crony capitalism, bankruptcies, and articles in The Los Angele Times, over the past twenty years, what percent of US electricity now comes from solar energy. Quick! Is it 5%, 15%, or 35%?

Okay, that was unfair. That was a trick. Even 5% was a bit too high.

Is it 1%, 2%, or  3%?

Okay, I know I'm going to be severely punished by Allah for teasing. One more time. What percent of US electricity now comes from solar energy? 0.1%, 0.3%, or 0.5%.

Yes, one of those answers is "almost" correct.

The answer is: 0.35%.
The 4,594 million KWH of electricity generated by solar power equaled 0.35 percent of the nation’s electricity supply in the first four months of the year.
Home-school children know what that means; for the rest of us, 0.35% is less than one-half of one percent.

You know, one almost wants to cry. I look at all the solar panels going up in southern California (I've seen one project) and all that work after 20 years results in less than one-half of one percent of all US electricity.

Okay, I have to admit, wind is much, much, much more important than solar by almost a factor of 200% -- or something like that. I've never understood "per cents" after we get above 100%.  But wind:
The 68,516 million KWH of electricity generated by wind in January through April equaled 5.2 percent of the nation’s electricity supply during that period.
So, about 5%.

So, that's a nice sound bite, easy to remember. From wind, the US gets about 5% of its electricity. From solar, zero percent. Think about that when First Solar hits a new high. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. And yes, I accumulate shares in First Solar. As some readers tell me, suckers are born every year. FSLR is off its highs but still doing okay. 

There's a lot of interesting information over at that linked article. The price of electricity looks a lot like the bull market in stocks. The largest rise in price of electricity occurred in the 70's and then in the last decade under President Obama. Who was the president 1973 - 1985 or thereabouts, I forget. Here they are: oh, there he is, Jimmy Carter, LOL, Who would have thought? Of course, rates also increased under Ronald Reagan but so did (almost) everyone's net worth. But what a coincidence: Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama.
From 2003 to 2013, the annual electricity price index increased from 139.5 to 200.750, a climb of almost 44 percent.

I'm not going to do the math, but the percent of coal for generating electricity dropped about 15% from 2007 to 2014, due to the war on coal.

Most of the slack was taken up by natural gas. Nuclear energy also declined slightly, but going forward, my hunch is the nuclear energy decline will be even more significant.

Anyway, it's a great article to read.

US electricity from wind: 5%.

From solar: 0%.

Some numbers rounded.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors and often make typographical errors. I often misread and misinterpret what I read. That's why I provide the links. Some days I'm glad just to be alive.

Another link, same subject, at Investor Village.

Six (6) New Permits -- North Dakota; July 29, 2014; Oasis, Whiting With "High-IP" Wells; Ford To Switch To Apple; 5 Of 8 Wells To DRL Status; Only 2 Of 8 Report IPs

Big news of the day: Ford is switching to iPhone; Ford corporate enterprise will switch to Apple. Link here. This is a huge story on so many levels; remember the recent handshake between IBM and Apple. Ford is the first of many dominoes to fall. I believe the military "sort of" switched to Apple some years ago. 

The market: before the market pulled back this afternoon, these companies traded at new highs -- AAPL, ABAX, CTL, FTR, REX, T, WIN, XOM.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read at this site, or think you may have read at this site. The telecoms had a great day. XOM trading at a new high, I think, surprised everyone.

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:
  • 24913, 2,424, Whiting, Roen 24-10-3H, Elk, t5/14; cum 15K 5/14;
  • 26658, drl, SM Energy, Hank 13-7H, Poe, no production data,
  • 26799, drl, Hess, SC-Tom-153-98-1514H-4, Truax, no production data,
  • 26864, drl, XTO, Ruby State Federal 34X-36E, Grinnell, no production data,
  • 27033, drl, CLR, McCoy 6-18H1, Northwest McGregor, no production data,
  • 27057, 268, Hunt, Sioux Trail 160-101-36-25H-1, Sioux Trail, t4/14; cum 6K 5/14;
  • 27077, drl, MRO, Vollmer 24-24TFH, Chimney Butte, Three Forks B-1, no production data,
  • 27238, drl, Slawson, Waterbond 6-27-34TFH, Van Hook, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs192179179179207

Six (6) new permits --
  • Operators: Hess (3), CLR (2), Legacy
  • Fields: Ray (Williams), Camel Butte (McKenzie), North Souris (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Four (4) producing wells completed:
  • 23544, 1,221, Statoil, Albert B. 27 34-4TFH, Nameless, t6/14; no production data;
  • 26888, 2,443, Oasis, Brier 520044-22 5T, Camp, t6/14; no production data, spacing ICO
  • 27135, 1,680, BR, Norman 21-4MBH, Johnson Corner 4 sections, t7/14; cum --
  • 27231, 365, Whiting, Waldock Federal 14-4-3XH, Sanish, t7/14; cum -- , spacing ICO; total depth reached in 14 days from spud; gas units as high as 1,733; no problems while drilling; IP?