Thursday, July 11, 2019

A Random Look At A Couple Of Whiting Wells In Southwest Bakken -- July 11, 2019

This is in the southwest corner of the state, sort of the second tier of the original Bakken. These are tier 1 wells, but the area is not quite as good as the core Bakken farther north. I was curious how some of the Whiting wells were doing in this area.

Big well:
  • 28056, 2,282, Whiting, Smith Federal l44-12PH, Three Forks, 30 stages; 3 million lbs, Park, t4/15; cum 419K 5/19;
A recent neighbor well:
  • 32288, 769, Whiting, Smith Federal 34-12-2PH, Three Forks, 45 stages; 5.1 million lbs; Park oil field; t10/18; cum 130K 5/19; 
The video sucks, but the mash-up is pretty good.

The Next Big Thing: Flashback -- July 11, 2019

From FakeNews:
The five largest companies now have a combined market value of $4.36 trillion. And Netflix, which often gets lumped in with the rest of the tech giants as part of the so-called FAANG stocks, is now worth $165 billion. NFLX has soared nearly 45% this year.
Back on March 21, 2013, I started tracking "the next big thing." That was more than six years ago and one of the longest-running features on the blog. 

In the original post for "the next big thing," I picked out Netflix. Wow.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Still Below The 5-Year Average But Rising Fast -- July 11, 2019

Link here.

Rate of fill continues to be quite steep.

Notes From All Over -- Part 7, July 11, 2019

I've talked about this before. This is why I can't take "global warming" seriously. If the world was really going to end in twelve years (or more accurately, if "we don't do something within the next twelve years ...") "we" would have put a stop to this (building more coal plants) a long time ago. It's not as if there are no alternatives to coal.

But here it is. The world has less than twelve years to act (Beto says ten), and "since 2000, the world has doubled its coal-fired capacity to around 2,000 gigawatts (GW) after explosive growth in China and India." [Perhaps China and India did not get the memo.]

But get this: a further 236GW is being built and 336GW is planned.

Algore alerted the global movers and shakers back in 1994 about CO2 and global warming. After he invented the internet. Since then, it appears, we've added more coal-energy than ever. It's hard to take global warming talk seriously when I see that.

Read more at ( -- it's interactive.

Yes, that site is a "global warming" site and it is noted that use of coal is declining, and will continue to decline. However.

Due to a wave of retirements across the EU and the US in the past few years, 227GW of coal energy has been shut down. Electricity generated from coal has plateaued ("Pat, I would like to buy a vowel") since 2014. But still, with only twelve years to go (Beto, ten years), it seems "we" should have been acting more quickly. Whatever.

[By the way, if you really read the numbers and the timelines closely, things don't add up.]

The good news: these folks at say we have "a few decades": "All unabated coal must close within a few decades if warming is to be limited to less than 2C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Even better news: the folks at have not been watching the solar minimum science that NASA has been reporting recently.

Speaking of Coal

I'm roasting my third beer-can chicken of the season right now. Wow, what a great aroma.

I use charcoal. I used to be really, really conscious of getting my hands dirty. Not any more. About a year ago I decided to really "play" in the coal. Get my hands really, really dirty. Enjoy the visceral feel of old briquets. 

It was a lifestyle choice.

And then this. Earlier I wrote that I just bought a new book: Finding Fire. There are incredibly great pictures of really, black, coal-covered hands, holding charred wood, cold embers, old briquets. Earthy. Wonderful.

Writing to 100

Twelve DUCs Reported As Completed; MRO WIth Seven Huge DUCs; North Dakota Rigs At 57; WTI Flat For The Day -- July 11, 2019

US markets -- closing highs:
  • S & P 500: can you believe it -- less than a point from closing above 3,000
  • Dow 30: surges almost 300 points before "fear" takes over -- closes at 27,088 -- first time ever, over 27,000
  • NASDAQ: 52-week high was 8,228.60; closed today at 8,226.18, losing 6.49 points by the close

Two words: plastic straws.

Along with "peak oil," another "truthism" bites the dust:

With global warming, we have a trifecta. Or a hat trick. LOL.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs57652973190

Six new permits, #36720 - 36725, inclusive:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Fields: Siverston (McKenzie), Pershing (McKenzie)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for a 6-well Vardon/Bailey pad in section 14-150-97, Siverson/Pershing oil fields
Twelve producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35793, 1,328, Kraken Operating, Rixey 33-28 5H, Lone Tree Lake, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35792, 738, Kraken Operating, Rixey 33-28 4TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t6/19; cum --;
  • 32919, 2,335, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5B, Lost Bridge, t3/19; cum 58K in two months;
  • 35268, 2,801, MRO, McCrory 44-35TFH, Bailey, t4/19; cum 41K in 46 days;
  • 34047, 2,860, MRO, Lucas 34-35TFH, Bailey, t4/19; cum 58K in 48 days;
  • 35267, 2,427, MRO, Catherine 44-35H, Bailey, t4/19; cum 55K in 50 days;
  • 33869, 3,132, MRO, Wickett 24-35TFH, Bailey, t4/19; cum 40K in 34 days;
  • 33871, 3,053, MRO, Rummel 24-35TFH, Bailey, t5/19; cum 32K in 27 days;
  • 33872, 2,361, MRO, Lawrence 34-35H, Bailey, t5/19; cum 22K in 21 days;
  • 33870, 4,149, MRO, Arthur 24-35H, Bailey, t5/19; cum 48K in 33 days;
  • 35302, 964, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-6, Beaver Lodge, t5/19; cum 13K in 13 days;
32173, 1,812, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-6,

Notes From All Over -- Part 6, July 11, 2019

Disclaimer: This is not an investment site. It's a MESS.

There Is A God

All my investing life I avoided OXY like the plague. Then, one day, don't ask, I put a huge amount of money into OXY. For the dividend.

"Huge amount of money" -- Congressional finance statements: "more than $50; less than $5 million."

One day later OXY announces it's in a bidding war with CVX for Anadarko.

OXY drops $10 on a $60-stock. Wow. In the vernacular: OXY tanked.

The really, really bad news? One of my siblings listened to my investing advice. Apparently she did not get the memo.

I am still thrilled with my decision to buy OXY -- although I wish I had waited two days -- but I've been dreading any further news. I assumed OXY might have to cut their dividend.

This is where the Warren Buffett connection comes in handy. Wow. There is a god: Warren Buffett.

Warren likes dividends, as long as he's not paying them.

If OXY were to cut their dividend, the price would fall further.

OXY declared an increase of the company’s regular quarterly dividend to $0.79 per share. On an annual basis, the dividend is $3.16 per share at the new rate, compared to the previous annual rate of $3.12 per share. 
The $0.79 per share quarterly dividend will be payable on October 15, 2019, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on September 10, 2019.
Based on all I have read about Vicki Hollub I had confidence she would look out for me (and all mom-and-pop retail investors) although I was still worried about the board. And what do you know?

I am 1,000% convinced that Ms Vicki and Mr Warren discussed this before making the decision. 

Tiptoeing through the tulips with Ms Vicki. What a great country.

Widespread Drought

At least that was the threat with global warming: Earth would be another Venus.

Last night with one of the heaviest rainfalls in recent memory (like about two months) here in north Texas, I asked my wife if the US had broken any rainfall records this year; of course she did not know; it was rhetorical and a way to remind myself to take a look.

A reader must have read my mind: according to ABC, the same network that predicted that Hillary would defeat Trump, the United States broke a 125-year rainfall record overnight.

 Trivialities Of Modern Life ...
... and why I love Texas

I've been dreading renewing my driver's license.

I received a reminder via snail mail from about a month ago that I needed to renew my license (of which I was already painfully aware). I did not open the envelope; I just dreaded the reminder that I would have to drive clear across town, stand in line to sign in, then wait for several hours only to be told I was missing some piece of paper and would have to come back some other day.

Wow, what a surprise: the letter/reminder said I could renew:
  • online
  • by phone
  • by mail
Are you kidding? A phone call? My wife suggested just doing it online.

Less than three minutes later I have my temporary renewal and (no doubt) that I will get the permanent license in about five days.

I assume it's this easy in every one of the 57 US states, but wow, I was blown away by how easy it was to renew.

$32 to renew.

Because I also have "motorcycle" printed on the license, it cost $33.

I was so blown away, I donated to three state-sponsored funds:
  • organ donation (as well as agreeing to be an organ grinder donor)
  • veterans' assistance
  • sexual assault collection kits ("rape kits")
Wow, I'm still blown away.

I'm retired with nothing to do. I don't have time to drive across town, stand in line ...

By the way, is it just me or does it seem somewhat pathetic that the state needs the equivalence of a "bake sale" to pay for "rape kits"?

Citizenship vs Residency

For the record.

Don't take this out of context. There have to be some "restrictions" and / or caveats.

Occasional-Cortex and/or her ilk have changed the conversation. President Obama removed the "citizenship" question on the census form (even though Texas asks that question when I renewed my driver's license after having such a state driver's license for 50 years with no moving violations - knock on wood).

But I digress.

Occasional-Cortex and/or her ilk have changed the conversation. President Obama removed the "citizenship" question and now the courts won't allow President Trump to put the question back on the form.

Again, don't take this out of context, and with some caveats/restrictions, I fully support automatic citizenship for anyone who has resided in the United States for five years.

Notes From All Over -- Here's Another Flood -- And It's Not In The Midwest -- Part 5, July 11, 2019

From Bloomberg via Rigzone: Big Oil plans to unleash a flood of plastic from US gulf.
The world’s biggest oil and chemical companies are about to unleash a tidal wave of plastic raw materials by the mid-2020s, tapping cheap shale gas to meet growing demand from makers of everything from toys to plumbing to consumer goods.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Dow Inc., France’s Total SA, South Africa’s Sasol Ltd. and Saudi Basic Industries Corp. have built or announced at least $40 billion in new petrochemical facilities in Texas and Louisiana.
The most recent is an $8 billion joint venture between Chevron Corp., Phillips 66 and Qatar Petroleum announced this week.
Two words: plastic straws.

From the link, companies involved / projected cost (rounded) / location:
  • Sasol / $12 billion / Louisiana 
  • Exxon - Sabic / $10 billion / Texas
  • Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, Qatar Petroleum / $8 billion / US Gulf Coast
  • Dow / $6 billion / Texas, Louisiana
  • LyondellBasell Industries NV / $2.4 billion / Texas
  • Exxon / $2 billion / Texas
  • Total, Nova Chemicals, Borealis / $2 billion / Texas
Perhaps this helps explain why Texas does not need an income tax.

Reality Sucks

If one has been reading mainstream media lately, one gets the feeling OPEC/Russia have this all under control -- that they will be able to slow the Americans. LOL.

From ArgusMedia: OPEC's 2020 outlook highlights re-balancing challenge.
OPEC's first outlook on supply and demand for 2020 suggests that rebalancing the oil market may require longer and deeper output cuts than those envisaged under its recently renewed production pact with its non-OPEC partners.
OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report forecasts that global oil demand will rise by 1.14m b/d next year, the same level of growth as projected for this year.
But it forecasts the pace of non-OPEC supply growth to accelerate to 2.44mn b/d in 2020, compared with a downwardly revised 2.05mn b/d in 2019.
These projections leave the call on OPEC crude at 29.27mn b/d next year, 1.34mn b/d lower than this year and more than 400,000 b/d below Argus' assessment of OPEC production in June.
Memo to Art Berman regarding US shale's retirement party:  the pace of non-OPEC supply growth to accelerate to 2.44mn b/d in 2020.

Party on!

So, How Is Today's Market Doing?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

The numbers:
  • WTI: $60.64 (will drop back to mid-50's when the Gulf storm dissipates)
  • Dow: up 138 freaking points, now trading at 26,996 which is like four points from 27,000; are the CNBC talking heads wearing caps with 27,000 on them or are they wearing MAGA caps? LOL. The day's high, so far: 27,007.86! Whoo-hoo!
  • S&P 500: 2,999.68 -- that's like less than a point from 3,000; the day's high, so far: 3,002.33. Whoo-hoo-hoo.
  • NASCAR: just joking
Sell in May, go away? I don't think so.

  • JAG: down four cents today.
  • NOG: down one penny today.
  • EPD: up 1.2%
  • CVX: down slightly
  • XLNX: up slightly
  • AAPL: holding on
  • TSLA: on a day the market is setting new records, TSLA falls

Again, this is not an investment site. 

It's a MESS (mobile entertainment simply stated).

Notes From All Over; Men Playing Soccer Grossly Underpaid -- Part 4, July 11, 2019

2019 oil demand growth forecast (this forecast is updated by the EIA on a regular (monthly?) basis, so it's simply a snapshot in time):
  • most recent growth forecast, link here: 1.1 million bopd
  • previous forecast: 1.3 million bopd 
  • again, false precision: 200,000 bbls / 100 million bbls daily consumption = 0.2%
  • forecast for 2020: demand growth at 1.4 million bopd (ditto, re: false precision)
Soccer, men vs women, link here (March 7, 2019):
The men still pull the World Cup money wagon. The men's World Cup in Russia generated over $6 billion in revenue, with the participating teams sharing $400 million, less than 7% of revenue.
Meanwhile, the Women's World Cup is expected to earn $131 million for the full four-year cycle 2019-22 and dole out $30 million to the participating teams.
In case Occasional-Cortex has difficulty reading data posted in paragraphs, let's post that again:
revenue for one tournament (repeat: one tournament):
  • men's soccer: $6 billion
  • women's soccer: $131 million
The real story here is the piddly amount the men receive. Look at that. The World Cup last year -- in Russia -- generated $6 billion and men took home less than 7% of that revenue. One can guess who the real beneficiaries were: Putin and the television networks.

My hunch is that the Men's World Cup would have generated another $1 billion had the American men's team made it to the semifinals. I don't recall, but I don't think the US men even made it to the semifinals.

The US women: win the World Cup and the revenue generated was (131/6,000) 2% of the men's.

Using the argument, equal pay for equal work, authors should all be paid the same amount for their books.

All CEOs, regardless of sex, size of company, revenues, etc., should be paid the same.

Notes From All Over -- Part 3, July 11, 2019

How many refrigerators does your household have?

How many cellphones does your household have?

Our older adult daughter's household has one refrigerator. They have six cellphones, although no one has told Sophia her cellphone no longer works. LOL. 

Link here.

Something tells me that most folks around the world are not using "energy star rated" refrigerators, either.

I was reminded of the above by a reader who wrote me after reading my note from last night.

By the way, despite one of the most severe electrical thunderstorms in years, we did not lose power, nor did we have any internet/cable television interruption. A huge shout-out to the power companies / cable company.

Notes From All Over; Fact-Checking Energy Data From India -- Part 2, July 11, 2019

Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 221K
  • prior revised: 222K
  • forecast: 220K
  • actual: 209K 
Futures after jobs report: pretty much unchanged. S&P 500 still looks to open right at 3,000.

India: I normally wouldn't post this but it dovetails nicely with my note from last night.

Some folks may focus on oil demand dropping year-over-year (monthly demand). Two observations:
  • the change was less than 2%;
  • based on many, many factors (including price, and availability of oil from Iran), India could have brought in much more oil earlier in the year (and stored it) or forced to wait until July/August for imports;
What I noticed was the 11% increase in gasoline demand year-over-year; gasoline demand, unlike oil, is generally not affected as much as oil on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis; gasoline is pretty much produced/consumed as needed.

I don't know about the rest of "you," but color me impressed with that 11% increase in gasoline demand in India. Of course, one can do some fact-checking. Let's start here. Paywall. So, we move on to this. The headline:
India’s fuel demand grows 5.30% in FY18 Despite a regulatory lid on polluting fuels, the overall fuel demand in the Indian economy showed a healthy trend in FY18 on the back of strong growth in transportation fuels.
From the linked article:
“At 5.30% growth, India is one of the fastest growing markets globally for petroleum products. The growth in 2017-18 has been as per expectations buoyed by strong growth registered in transportation fuels.
But look at this (and this is why Giovanni Staunovo's brief tweet is unhelpful -- folks might wonder about the 22% decline in "petcoke" demand). From the linked article, this is why:
Supreme Court’s ban on use of Pet coke and Furnace Oil (FO) as fuel in the National Capital Region (NCR), Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh last year seems to have put a dent on consumption of Pet coke and Furnace Oil, data available on Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell website shows.
Growth could have been even higher but for regulatory clampdown on the use of polluting fuels such as FO and Petcoke in few cities,” Ravichandran explained.
Pet coke consumption grew at 9 per cent to 26 MT. However, the growth registered in 2017-2018 is much lower than the double-digit growth registered in its consumption in the last seven years.
If President Occasional Cortex bans gasoline in the US, the year-over-year demand for gasoline would probably be fairly significant. Just saying. 

And so it goes.

CLR To Report A Huge Morris Well Today -- July 11, 2019

CLR will report a huge Morris well later today. The Morris well is part of the huge Morris/Carson peak complex in Oakdale oil field. The wells are tracked here; the page has not been updated in quite some time.

The well:
  • 35082, conf, CLR, Morris 8-26H1, Oakdale:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

The "H1" designation suggests this is a Three Forks well.

The graphics:


Let's take a look at this well, which is of the most interest:
  • 17334, 811, CLR, Morris 1-23H, a middle Bakken well, API: 33-025-00777, Oakdale, t11/08; cum 298K 5/19; the last sundry form was for work completed November 30, 2013; no FracFocus data to suggest this well was re-fracked; folks are complaining about the parent-child interference problem in the Permian; not so in the Bakken. At least not those receiving royalties from #17334 unless one wants to complain about the amount of time this well has been off line.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

By the way, as long as we're at it, look at this well in the same area:
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, a middle Bakken well, 33-025-01076, Oakdale, t5/11; cum 697K 5/19: no FracFocus data to suggest this well was re-fracked, most recent sundry for work completed, dated March 22, 2013:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Active Rigs At 58 In North Dakota; CLR Will Report A Morris Well Today -- July 11, 2019

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, July 11, 2019: 13 for the month; 13 for the quarter;
  • 35546, SI/NC, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HD, Antelope-Sanish, no production data,
  • 35082, 1,593, CLR, Morris 8-26H1, 26 stages; 11.3 million lbs; Three Forks, first bench, Oakdale, t4/19; cum 74K in less than 2 months;
  • 33944, 942, Liberty Resources, Robert W 159-94-1-25-2TFHX, 40 stages; 16 million lbs white sand, North Tioga, t1/19; cum 100K 5/19;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs58652973190

RBN Energy: northeast gas takeaway capacity vs production in 2019, part 5.
A raft of natural gas pipeline projects completed in the past couple of years has — for the first time — left room to spare on most takeaway routes out of the Northeast and provided Marcellus/Utica producers a reprieve from the all-too-familiar dynamic of capacity constraints and heavily discounted supply prices, even as regional production continues achieving new record highs. There’s on average close to 4 Bcf/d of unused exit capacity currently available — more in the winter when higher in-region demand means more of the production is consumed locally and less than that (but still more than in past years) in the spring, summer and fall seasons, when greater outbound flows are needed to help offset the relatively lower Northeast demand. But we’re expecting Northeast production to grow by another 8 Bcf/d or so over the next five years. And the list of projects designed to add more exit capacity has dwindled to just a few troubled ones that, even if built, wouldn’t be enough to absorb that much incremental supply. When can we expect constraints to re-emerge? Today, we conclude this series with a look at RBN’s natural gas production forecast for the Marcellus/Utica and how that correlates to the region’s pipeline takeaway capacity over the next five years.
For years, the Northeast’s gas flows and pricing dynamics have been defined by unrelenting production growth and takeaway constraints, with flows perpetually hitting capacity limits and supply-hub prices getting knocked down. But as we discussed in Part 1 of this series, after dozens of pipeline reversals, expansions and greenfield projects, takeaway capacity out of the region has finally caught up to — and is outpacing — Marcellus/Utica production growth. While the growth in the play’s natural gas output was modest in the first half of 2019, outright volumes are more than 4 Bcf/d above where they stood at this time last year and still setting records, with the monthly average exceeding 31 Bcf/d for the first time in June 2019. Yet, as a result of the excess pipeline capacity, June spot prices at Dominion South, Appalachia’s representative supply hub, were the strongest they’ve been in six years relative to national benchmark Henry Hub.

Notes From All Over -- Part 1, July 11, 2019

Timely: in today's morning note,
Which reminds me? Whatever happened to the NYC natural gas pipeline expansion project nixed by governors Andrew Cuomo (NY) and Phil Murphy (NJ)? Glad you asked. From The New York Post, overnight:
Shortages of gas for heating have hit the nation’s most important city: New York.
Following moves by Govs. Andrew Cuomo and New Jersey’s Phil Murphy to nix a pipeline that could deliver vital gas supplies to the city and Long Island, National Grid can no longer offer new gas hook-ups or additional service for current customers.
“If you’re looking to expand your natural gas service in Brooklyn, Queens or Long Island, we will not be able to meet your request,” unless both states reverse their decisions and OK the pipeline, the utility warns. Con Ed may have to turn away customers, too.
So nothing new. But arguing for natural gas pipelines for heating in the middle of summer seems like a stupid argument. The New York Post could have done better. 

Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 221K
  • prior revised: 222K
  • forecast: 220K
  • actual: 209K
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

US market: a day of record highs? Based on futures, S&P will open above 3,000. Most likely, oil sector doing all the heavy lifting right now due to price of oil hitting $60 (tropical storm along Gulf coast).

British Navy: doesn't fool around. Good for them. Prevented Iranian "navy" from pushing British oil tanker into Iranian territorial waters.

The Movie Page

Last night on TCM: Queen Christina. The story of the Swedish queen during the 30 Years War, early to mid-1630s. First movie appearance by Greta Garbo.  Garbo: Swedish-born; 28 when she starred as Queen Christina, the same age as the queen; fifth on the AFI list of greatest female stars of classic Hollywood cinema. The child actress playing the queen at age six was Cora Sue Collins, still alive and kicking, age 92. Interestingly, the latter also teamed with Greto Garbo in Anna Karenina.