Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Nothing About The Bakken -- September 18, 2018

I received a very nice comment from a reader earlier today. The reader said a lot of nice things about the blog, the music, the politics, the family stuff. I kept waiting for the "... but ... you need to ...."

The reader was being very generous ...

Wow, I have to play some music really loud -- before this gets too cheesy / sappy / treacly --

Dreaming, Blondie

The writer picked up on something: a lot of the notes to the granddaughters are simply there for them if they ever need something biographical for a school project. LOL.

My biggest complaint about the blog: the music is repetitive. I try to find new stuff but it seems YouTube keeps pushing me in certain directions.

"Treacly." My wife taught me that word years ago. 


Wow, I haven't done this one in a long time. It's perhaps my all-time favorite -- again, headphones, and really, really loud .... I usually post a different video when I post this song -- first time for this particular video --

Yellow River, The Tremeloes</center>

One of the comments regarding this video:
It's no coincidence that the music sounds very similar: It's exactly the same recording. Only the voice was re-recorded. See Wikipedia: ""Yellow River" is a popular song recorded by the British band Christie. Written by band leader Jeff Christie, the song was offered to The Tremeloes, who recorded it with the intention of releasing it as a single early in 1970. However, after the success of their then most recent single, "Call Me Number One", and after considering it too pop-orientated for their future direction, they decided to follow it up with another of their own compositions, "By The Way", which was only a minor Top 40 success.
Producer Mike Smith therefore took their vocals off the recording and added those of Jeff Christie. Released on 23 April 1970, it became an international hit, reaching number one on the UK Singles Chart for one week in June 1970. In the US, it reached number 23 on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart. Bad luck! The Tremeloes missed their biggest hit!

9:00 p.m. Starbucks closes at 9:30; they start shutting down at 9:15 p.m. Will have to finish this at home -- five-mile bike ride -- busy traffic part of the way; busy highway part of the way. Pitch black; sunset some hours ago -- officially 7:30 p.m. -- hard to believe, so early for sunset. I have lots of lights on the bike and my backpack. Lots of time to think.


Good luck to all. See you in the a.m.

For The Archives -- ENB, EEP, EEQ -- September 18, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read.

For the archives: ENB, EEP, EEQ, from MarketWatch --
  • EEP unitholders will receive 0.3350 common shares of ENB for each common unit of EEP; an 8.7% increase to the exchange ratio proposed earlier of 0.3083 ENB common shares
  • EEQ: 0.3350 ENB; at parity with the EEP exchange ratio
Significant weakening of the U.S. Master Limited Partnership (MLP) capital markets has adversely affected the growth opportunities for MLPs, including EEP. MLPs are dependent on consistent access to capital markets at an effective cost of capital to fund projects to grow their distributions.
The respective March 15 and July 18, 2018 income tax allowance policy announcement and order by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and the regulatory rate impact from the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act have had a net significant adverse impact on EEP.
If EEP were to continue as a stand-alone entity, after taking into account its lower revenue and weak MLP capital markets, it would be required to transition to a self-funding model with no cost effective access to equity capital. EEP's priority would be to strengthen its balance sheet, which would require near term incremental Enbridge support, and reduce its distributions, which would have corresponding negative implications to EEQ. 
(Approximate?) closing prices, September 17, 2018:
  • ENB: $34.28
  • EEP: $11.25
  • EEQ: $10.80
Distribution history: https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/eep/dividend-history.a

Notes to the Granddaughters

For Father's Day -- some months ago -- the Tutor Time teacher recorded Sophia's answers to the following questions:

Questions and answers:
  • Where does your dad work: at the airport
  • Favorite thing to do with your dad: go to my party
  • My dad's super power: sleeping good
  • I love dad more than: cupcakes
  • My dad laughs when he: tickles me
  • I love my dad because:  he loves me so much

Hess Reports Five Completed DUCs -- September 18, 2018

Apple iPhone review. CNBC talking heads did a nice review of the new iPhones. They only got one thing wrong. They keep talking about how expensive the phones are. "No one" has to pay those prices. We've gone through this before. These phones are heavily subsidized by the carrier. Monthly payments as low as $0 in some cases but I assume the brand new, best iPhones can be had for less than $50 / month ... let's check ... wow, I was wrong, really wrong. One can get the brand-new iPhone Xs for $0 / month:


The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 14, up from 3.8 percent on September 11.
The nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. 
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs64563267199

Two new permits:
  • Operators: WPX, Lime Rock
  • Fields: Squaw Creek, Dimond
  • Comments:
Eight permits renewed:
  • QEP (7): seven Hazel permits in McKenzie County
  • Texakota: one H Borstad well in Williams County
Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33603, 1,637, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-6, Truax, t9/18/ cum --
  • 33604, 1,097, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-5, Truax, t8/18; cum --
  • 33608, 1,669, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-5, Truax, t8/18; cum --
  • 33605, 1,650, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-4, Truax, t8/18; cum --
  • 33606, 2,121, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-3, Truax, t8/18; cum -- 
Producing wells to the west of these new Hess wells (check again in 6 months)
  • 21037, 684, Hess, SC-Gene
  • 29166, 988, Hess, SC-Gene-
  • 29165, 739, Hess, SC-Norma-
  • 29818, 915, Hess, SC-Norma-
  • 29817, 737, Hess, SC-Norma-
  • 29816, 1,354, Hess, SC-Norma-
  • 29164, 896, Hess, SC-Norma-
To the east (half run south; half run north), all having just been completed and producing (check again in six months):
  • 33610, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
  • 33609, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
  • 33608, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
  • 33607, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
  • 33606, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
  • 33605, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
  • 33604, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
  • 33603, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
Farther to the east, these wells on confidential list:
  • 34900, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-7,
  • 34901, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
  • 34902, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
  • 34903, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-
  • 34904, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
  • 34905, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
  • 34906, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-
  • 34907, conf, Hess, SC-JCB

Not To Spoil Your Day, But .... September 18, 2018

... could be another great day for CBR -- when the Iowa Supreme Court makes its decision .... re: the DAPL. The good news:
  • by rail, it's really not all that far to Illinois;
  • as the price of oil goes up, the pipeline/rail differential becomes less consequential;
  • CBR is much more flexible than pipe (link here); and, 
  • wow, the rails are going to do very, very well
Later: I would assume that if the DAPL is shut down, there will be a lot of unhappy surface owners, towns, cities, and states. Apparently landowners got paid over $20,000 an acre for their easements.  If they'd have sold the land outright, they'd have banked 1/3 to 1/2 that.  Now, they've still got the land - and it'll produce at some level.  Liked the incongruity of "undisturbed" vs. "drainage tile" pointed out.

For Newbies -- This Is Happening All Over The Bakken -- Mineral Owners Have Noticed This For Years -- September 18, 2018

Look at this graphic.

Pay attention to these wells:
  • #20521 drilled back in 2012.
  • #17407 drilled back in 2009.
  • The 31XXX wells completed in July, 2018.
The production for #17407 is at this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2018/09/xto-fenton-federal-with-huge-jump-in.html.

Pertinent production for #20521. This well has not produced since 2015 when it was producing 2,000 bbls / month. Came off-line when Saudi Surge destroyed oil prices. Operator managing assets very, very well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

So, how is #31966, one of the 31XXX wells looking?
  • 31966, 1,803, XTO, George Federal 21X-19F2, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 18K after 20 days; 2nd bench of the Three Forks -- 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Other wells:
  • 31964, 2,823, XTO, George Federal 21X-19E, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 16K after 8 days, extrapolates to 60,000 bbls for a 30-day month.
  • 31961, SI/NC, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19A, Lost Bridge, t--; cum 15K after 11 days;
Screen Test For A New David Lynch Movie

Taken some years ago.

No, she did not get the part. Apparently David felt she was "over-acting."

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+36 -- September 18, 2018 -- And On A Percentage Basis, The Bakken Is The "Growth" Winner

Saudi data: lots of numbers in this article over at oilprice regarding Saudi Arabia. Three data points: Saudi crude oil production; exports; and, crude oil inventories. Of the three, Saudi's crude oil production is most interesting:
  • July, 2018: 10.3 million bopd
  • August, 2018: 10.4 million bopd
Chinese diesel demand hits peak -- LOL -- in 2030: over at oilprice -- Reuters says Chines crude oil demand will peak in .... drum roll ... 2030 at 690 million tons annually -- almost 14 million bopd; gasoline demand will peak around 2025. If all goes to plan, China will switch from gasoline and diesel to coal to provide electricity for their growing fleet of electric buses.

Forecasts, from SeekingAlpha;
  • a new report from the Department of Energy predicts production in the Permian Basin will continue to grow more than any other U.S. shale field next month despite tightening pipeline capacity, which may have fallen below production
  • the report predicts the Permian will add 31K bbl/day of oil production in October, bringing the play's overall output near 3.5M bbl/day (31K/3.5 million = 0.8% (not quite 1%)
  • the Eagle Ford Shale is expected to add 16K bbl/day, bringing its output closer to 1.5M bbl/day (slightly more than 1% growth)
  • the Bakken field in North Dakota is forecast to add 14K bbl/day of oil production to more than 1.3M bbl/day (the most growth, at almost 1.08% growth)

Market: while CNBC continues to talk the market down, no one has mentioned this. All things being equal, a rising bond market is deleterious for the stock market. For the past year, talking heads have set the 10-year bond as the metric to watch. The threshold was seen as 3% by most talking heads. As long as the10-year bond stayed below a 3% yield, the stock market would/should/could go higher; but if the 10-year bond yield went over 3% then one would expect the market to fall. So, what happened today? The 10-year bond yield is ... drum roll ... 3.04% at the very moment the Dow is flirting with an all-time intra-day high ... currently up an incredible 250 points

WTI: $70.30.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

BRK-B: completely escaped my attention -- flirting with 52-week highs.

Oil sector: across the board, is going to do well today.

Ethanol: on the ropes. Two ethanol producers in Iowa shutting down. Blaming it on "bossa nova" (loosely translated as "new sheriff in town" -- LOL).

Blame It On The Bossa Nova, Eydie Gormé

Graph Of The Day -- September 18, 2018

For The Archives

Beating a dead horse but can't resist.

Killed, delayed, deferred:
  • Enbridge Northern Gateway
  • Enbridge Line 3
  • TransCanada Keystone XL
  • Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Expansion
Announced yesterday:
  • Kinder Morgan to sell all assets in Canada; says Canada is "closed for business"  
CNI is going to need a lot of help. Speaking of which, check out GBX.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Blogging Delayed -- September 18, 2018 -- 100% Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- To DUC Status

Trump wins again: Germany will import US LNG. Won't amount to much in the short term, but over time ... who knows?

Boom! Bismarck developer lays plans for 2,800-home community. Huge story.

That didn't last long: those "green" decals in California. LOL. See bottom of the post.

Amazon: this is pretty cool. Last week I mentioned the Amazon vans in our neighborhood. Now this story tonight: Amazon just ordered 20,000 new vans.

Strange, strange day:
  • Dow (irrelevant) futures up 88 points
  • Trump announces more tariffs on China, and threatens to increase them by year-end -- only three months from now
  • Chinese stock market in free fall
  • Chinese billionaires losing billions
  • waiting for news of Chinese bankers jumping out of windows
  • WTI flirting with $70 again
  • UNP up an astounding4.17% in pre-market trading; up $6.54/share
  • headline: 2/3rds of Prime members would bank with Amazon -- maybe Amazon and Schwab will team up
  • OAS, NOG could have a huge day
  • wow, SRE up over 1%, and now trading above $120
  • ever since it was publicly released that Warren sold some of his COP (after the initial few days), COP has gone higher; meanwhile AAPL dropped like a rock yesterday; AAPL will trade a bit higher today
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Blogging delayed: I was at Starbucks this morning at 6:00 a.m. or so, arriving by bike before sunrise. Unable to get connected to wi-fi.

Finally biked over to McDonald's -- got on to wi-fi immediately. So, I'm already behind.
Usually when I'm this far behind, it's not even worth blogging for the day.
So, we'll get started when we get started.

Very, very busy at McDonald's. Line very, very long.

Simply ordered on the kiosk and lo and behold, my order delivered to me a few minutes later.

Wells coming off the confidential list today: Tuesday, September 18, 2018
  • 34562, SI/NC, Abraxas, Ravin 10H, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 34559, SI/NC, XTO, Bobcat Federal 11X-2F2-S, Bear Creek, no production data,
  • 33739, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 31771, SI/NC, BR, Sanvan 8-1-29UTFH-ULW, Elidah, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs66563267199

RBN Energy: the crude oil hub at Cushing -- who owns what; how it's used.
The crude oil hub at Cushing, OK, has more than 90 MMbbl of tankage, 3.7 MMb/d of incoming pipeline capacity and 3.1 MMb/d of outbound pipes. That’s an impressive amount of infrastructure by any standard. The real marvel of the place, though, is the variety of important roles it plays and services it provides for a wide range of market participants — producers, midstream companies, refiners and marketers, as well as producer/marketer and refiner/marketer hybrids. To truly understand Cushing — what it does and how it works — you need to know the hub’s assets and how they fit together. Today, we continue a series on the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World” with a look at the companies that own Cushing storage capacity and how that storage is put to use.
Minor Notes

Enbridge: previously announced, from SeekingAlpha --
  • Enbridge announces deals to acquire all public equity of sponsored units Enbridge Energy Partners, Enbridge Energy Management, and Enbridge Income Fund Holdings, simplifying its corporate structure and detailing a plan proposed in May
  • EEP unitholders will receive 0.335 ENB common shares for each common unit owned, representing an 8.7% increase to the exchange ratio proposed by ENB on May 17
  • EEQ shareholders will receive 0.335 ENB common shares for each share owned, which is at parity with the EEP exchange ratio
  • EBGUF shareholders will receive 0.735 ENB common shares for each share owned plus C$0.45 cash per share, representing a 9.8% increase to the exchange ratio proposed on May 16, and 11.3% including the cash component
  • ENB bought out its Spectra Energy Partners subsidiary in a deal announced in August
Seeing "red." Governor Moonbeam says "green" decals bought before 2017 -- only two years ago -- no good. Need to buy a new car in 2019 if you want a "green" decal. Pretty funny.