Monday, March 11, 2019

Uff-Da -- If Any Kennedy Grandchildren Have Not Seen Snow, May We Suggest ... Spring In Norway? -- March 11, 2019

Note: Mark Perry's Monday afternoon links are all "energy and the environment."  Be sure to take a look at the argument that California's solar energy policies may be responsible for the big forest fires. It goes back to the "DUCK" curves. I even have tags for "DuckCurve" and "Ducks_Solar."


Wow, this global warming isn't sparing anyone this year. Over at IceAgeNow, "Forget spring! Norway bracing for half a meter of snow!"
Now a half meter of snow over southern Norway, announced Håvard Thorset, meteorologist at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
Much of this will come in the middle of rush hour traffic. The worst will be southern Norway and the capital.
Eastern Norway and Oslo will get some snow in the afternoon rush hour on Tuesday. The worst is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
 Pretty funny. All this snow. One of the Kennedys -- was it Patrick? -- predicted our grandchildren would never see snow again.

Speaking of which, our three grandchildren are spending spring break in Utah ... skiing.

Mismarck, ND
Most Snowfall Ever In A 24-Hour Period

Be sure to view the video, linked below.

Closer to home, but no alpine skiing -- but the cross country skiing should be great, as well as snowmobiling.

This is amazing: Bismarck, ND, broke a century-old record of snowfall. Truly, truly amazing, and this comes from a former NoDak.

Also from IceAgeNow:

See video of Mismarck, ND -- where I was born. I lived in Bismarck for two years before moving to Williston, ND.

Residents growing tired of the snow ... and this is North Dakota. LOL.

Random Update Of A BR Well In Jim Creek Oil Field -- March 11, 2019

From an earlier post:
January 4, 2019: #17999 -- big jump in production -- see below; #17374 -- no jump in production;
  • 34668, 6,640, MRO, Drake 44-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 41K over 20 days which extrapolates to 62K over 30 days; 
I'm not going to go through the usual routine, but look at #17999, after a neighboring well, #34668, was fracked.

But think about this: an old well, drilled back in 2009 with a lousy IP of 373 and a lousy production record, less than 100,000 bbls after almost ten years; then a neighboring well is fracked and production jumps (at least temporarily) ten-fold, suggesting what this well could do with a full re-frack using current completion strategies.

Oil wells are not supposed to do this; once they decline in production, they don't come back. Another exception to the rule. 

The well:
  • 17999, 373, BR, Jacqueline Olson 14-16H, Jim Creek, t9/09; cum 106K 1/19, recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Look At Another MRO Bakken Phenomenon -- March 11, 2019

This is really for newbies to show them what the Bakken is all about.

The full note is at this post.
For newbies -- lots to look at regarding that post, that well. We have an index well (#16686) that was not fracked after it was first drilled, back in 2008. In 2014, it had a very, very small frack (1.8 million lbs); at that time showed a nice jump in production as one would expect. Then, there was another jump in production in December, 2018, and yet it was not re-fracked. The production was high enough suggesting the well was indeed fracked.

Well, it turns out that for all intents and purposes, it was re-fracked -- by four neighboring wells; two running in the same direction as #16686, and two running in the opposite direction.
1. Look at the jump in production in December, 2018, even though this well was not re-fracked; this is a classic MRO phenomenon;

2. Look at the incredible IPs for the new wells (at least one of them was a Three Forks well; these wells are in the Reunion Bay oil field and in MRO's hands, are incredible wells;
3. When looking at production numbers for any given month, if production seems low, look at the number of days of production;
The well:

  • 16686, 379, MRO, Shobe 24-20H, API: 33-061-00547, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 461K 8/19;
  • This well was fracked/tested:12/16/2008: 0 stages; 511,700 lbs; note production at initial completion; not fracked
  • Re-fracked/tested: 7/9/14: 30 stages; 1.8 million lbs sand; note jump in production after this small frack
  • Note jump in production, 12/18; not re-fracked: nice jump in production see below 
So, what caused the jump in production in 12/18? Let's look at the neighboring wells. There are four, all of them relatively far away -- certainly not sister wells; maybe not even parent/child wells by strict definition, but that's all in the eye of the beholder; I won't argue it one way or the other;

16686, production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


See this note also; similar phenomenon.

A long list of interesting wells are linked here.

Pretty Cool -- "Real-Time" US Electricity Grid Supply - Demand -- March 11, 2019

Link here. Perhaps more later.

On Shore Wind Energy -- Dead In The Water In The Out Years If Trump Is Re-Elected

The only thing keeping wind energy projects "going" -- grants, subsidies, tax breaks, federal and state mandates.

It could not be more evident in a graph like the one below. If a faux environmentalist trumps Trump then all bets are off. Onshore wind energy depends completely on grants, subsidies, tax breaks, federal and state mandates, and nothing to do with science or market-based economics.

Central planning: one of the three legs of the three-legged socialist stool.

The graphic (huge thanks to a reader for pointing this out):

Pancakes, Again

Tesla: Just Kidding -- March 11, 2019; XTO With Six New Permits In The Bakken

Tesla: U-turn -- from the FWIW department --
  • won't close stores
  • will raise prices on vehicles 3% -- except for the $35,000 Model 3
  • market reaction: TSLA -- up 2.4% today; up $6.78; trading at $291
Back to the Bakken

Jobs, jobs, jobs, and more jobs:

Active rigs:

Active Rigs65594532112

Six new permits:
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Capa (Williams)
    Comments: XTO has permits for a 6-well Lavern pad in section 14-155-95; Capa oil field
Ten permits renewed:
  • NP Resources (4): four Mosser Federal permits in Billings County
  • RimRock Oil & Gas (4): four Charging Eagle permits in Dunn County
  • Whiting: an Armas permit in Mountrail County
  • Prima Exploration: one State permit in Divide County
Change of operator (operators not mentioned -- current operator listed as Prima Exploration; it looks like they used to be North Plains Energy II LLC wells)

  • fourteen wells changed operator (one was a SWD well)
  • all in Divide County
  • oldest permit: 23707
  • most recent permit: 28988

CLR Yet To Report Some Huge Brandvik / Weydahl Wells In Corral Creek -- March 11, 2019

I may have posted these recently; can't remember; too many huge wells being repeated. CLR is in the process of completing / reporting some huge Brandvik /Weydahl wells which are tracked here. The wells noted below were all SI/NC at one time; they are now back on the conf list.

Those Brandvik / Wehdahl wells yet to be reported (the list may or may not be inclusive of all wells yet to be reported):
  • 30365, conf, CLR, Brandvik 5-25H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; 16K 1/19;
  • 30362, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 5-36H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018, 679,000 gallons of water; 87.5% water by weight; 17K 1/19;
  • 30363, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 6-36H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018; 662,920 gallons of water; 87.4% water by weight; 18K 1/19;
  • 30364, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 7-36H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce; Frac Focus, 6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018; 453,948 gallons of water; 87.8% water by weight; 39K 1/19;
  • 32812, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, FracFocus, 743,606 gallons of water; 87.4% water by weight; t--; cum --; 51K 1/19;
  • 32813, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 9-36H, Corral Creek, beginning to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 5/23/2018 - 6/17/18; 749,087 gallons of water (no typo); 87.3% water by weight; t--; cum --; 50K 12/18;
  • ***** 32814, conf, CLR, Brandvik 8-25H1, Corral Creek, beginning to produce, 9/18; t--; cum --; FracFocus, 5/23/2018 - 6/17/18; 568,755 gallons of water (no typo); 87.4% water by weight; 53K 1/19;
Early production for these wells:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Never Expected To See Either Of These Stories -- March 11, 2019

OXY: #1 exporter of US shale crude oil.

Contractors, not employees: ruling by the 5th Circuit Court. Some common sense.

  • ISO New England, link here. There are going to be some high utility bills this month -- a huge non-regressive tax imposed on middle class and poor alike while elites continue to push for renewable energy. Another spike to more than $200/MWh -- and this is almost mid-March.


Just in time for spring break, the Kennedy clan is flying out to Michigan to do some off-roof skiing. The deer in the photo below was not the only one with a "deer-in-the-headlights" look. Algore planned on joining the Kennedy clan but could not make it. His 12-SUV entourage was snowbound somewhere north of Iowa. The Davos jet-setting elites wanted to fly in but the runways were closed. Beto? He's still trying to find "upper Peninsula" on the map. He knows the "panhandles" of Oklahoma and Texas but not the "upper peninsulas."

Links here:
All from the upper peninsula over the weekend (the science is settled):

A Reader Provides Stunning Observation Regarding US Wind Energy Going Forward -- March 11, 2019

Earlier I posted an update regarding US electricity sector. In that note, I forgot to mention the necessity of tax credits, subsidies, and government mandates if the renewable energy sector is to survive.

A reader caught that oversight and provided this note:
This past Friday's (March 8, 2019) "Today In Energy" piece from the EIA presented one of the more stunning - albeit not unexpected to serious observers - factoids regarding new additions to the US energy supply.

Specifically, the first graph shows- with green bars - the new capacity emanating from onshore wind. Starting in 2022, it drops to zero and stays near zero for decades. This is the clear impact of the ending of the tax credits as construction needs to start on projects before the end of 2019 in order to qualify.

No tax credits (production tax credits, PTCs and/or investment tax credits, ITCs) equals no more wind projects.
That's a very, very interesting observation.

Here's the graph (see if you can spot "onshore wind energy" -- yes, you will need a magnifying glass:

In 2050, for example, it looks like 21 gigawatts of new electricity generating capacity will be added. Of that 21 gigawatts, onshore wind might account for one-half gigawatt, or 2%.

I.N.C.O.N.S.E.Q.U.E.N.T.I.A.L. And even worse than inconsequential considering all the attention this sector gets in the mainstream media.  I bet if the Occasional-Cortex-Bernie-Sanders-crowd was asked, they would think 100% of new electricity generating capacity would come from renewable energy. By the way, it's interesting that solar has such a huge footprint: I assume that is based on residential-rooftop-solar panels mandated by California. Other states will follow. Further killing the housing industry.

As long as we're on the subject, this item was buried at the very end of the linked article at CNBC with the IEA forecast for EVs sales going forward in the earlier post (I did not want to gild the lily, as they say):
Norway remains the leader when it comes to market share. Electric vehicles accounted for 39 percent of Norway’s new car sales last year, and 6.4 percent of the country’s cars are powered by electricity.
That makes Norway the leader in both categories.
But in another sign of the importance of policy, Norway is the only member of the IEA’s Electric Vehicles Initiative that saw annual sales volume and market share fall between 2013 and 2017. The IEA chalks up those declines to a change in the way the tax system treats private use of company cars and the end of tax incentives last year for plug-in hybrids.
LOL: "... another sign of the importance of policy." -- subsidies, grants, tax credits, government mandates, central planning (a key feature of socialism).

By the way, my hunch is that the US could very easily go back to adding coal plants in the out years if nuclear plants continue to be de-commissioned, and the demand for electricity grows as suggested in an earlier post.

The Book Page

L.E.L., Lucasta Miller, c. 2019:
Letitia Elizabeth Landon, who published under her initials, L.E.L., was feted as the female Byron during the 1820s. But after she was found dead in 1838, in West Africa of all places and in suspicious circumstances, the early Victorian publishing industry closed ranks to erase what they had come to see as her shameful history. Her literary reputation declines. She was left on the margins, surrounded by an aura of mystery and occlusion, her wore routinely misunderstood. -- p. xi.

Although she remains little heard of today outside specialist circles, L. E. L. was a "legendary figure" in her own time. According to a critic writing in 1841, her name was "so identified with the literature of the day, that not to know anything of it is scarcely possible."

Elizabeth Barrett (who later added Browning to her name following her marriage) believed [L.E.L.] unrivaled among women poets for her "raw bare powers."

In America, Edgar Allan Poe thought her "genius" so self-evident...

L.E.L. was, however, the voice of a lost literary generation. Her career, which spanned the 1820s and 1830s, coincided exactly with the "strange pause," as the historian G. M. Young called it, between the Romantics and the Victorians.

Modern scholars are still unsure exactly what happened during this troublesome transition phase between the deaths of Keats, Shelley, and Byron and the rise of Dickens.

Referred to as "an embarrassment to the historian of English literature" and an "indeterminate borderland," it resists periodization, and has never been dignified with a name. However, it should probably be called the "post-Byronic" era, since the fallout from Byron's celebrity cult had such a profound impact on the writing of the day. Following his death in 1824, every hack wanted his -- or her -- own cult of personality. Yet the labile, often ironized voices writers created in response remain hard to interpret, their tone difficult for the modern reader to pin down. None is harder to read than that of the inscrutable L. E. L.
No one knew who she was when she first began to publish under her mysterious initials in the early 1820s. But in 1824 she emerged in public as the star author of a new best seller. The Improvisatrice. A skillful improviser of her own image, she soon became a celebrity, her portrait exhibited at the Royal Academy, her presence a fixture on the London social scene.
If she was the female Byron, "female" was the operative word. She was the "poetess" par excellence in a period in which, unusually in literary history, women dominated the genre. The eighteenth-century cult of sensibility, regarded by some modern cultural historians as the fons et origo of English Romanticism, had already produced some notable female poets, including Charlotte Smith and Mary Robinson, Letitia Landon's literary foremothers.
Following the untimely deaths of Keats, Shelley, and Bryon, the "poetess" became culturally supreme. Not just in England, but in France, Germany, Russia, and America, a new generation of women Romantics staked their careers on the supposition that their gender made them more sensitive and intuitive than men, and thus more poetical. -- pp. 4 -5.

Making America Great -- This Is Just One Reason Why The Davis Refinery Is So Important, And Why I Love To Blog -- March 11, 2019

This is a big, big deal. Archived.

From twitter:

From Rigzone:
As Rigzone has reported, Meridian’s 49,500-barrel per day Davis Refinery in Belfield, ND, will qualify as a “Synthetic Minor Source” from an emissions perspective. 
Bearing that designation reflects the regional refinery’s measures to: remove benzene and sulfur from gasoline production curb releases of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides from the flare stack monitor valves, gaskets and seals for volatile organic compound releases. 
On February 11 of this year (2019), Meridian announced that it had struck a deal with a unit of Winkler Co. to build a 60,000-bpd full-conversion refinery in Winkler County, Texas, in the Permian’s Delaware Basin. 
The Permian refinery will be similar to the North Dakota facility and will also be permitted as a Synthetic Minor Source, Meridian added. The company asserts that the Davis Refinery, which it expects to begin commercial operations in 2021, will be the first full-conversion refinery to be designated in that manner. In a recent conversation with Rigzone, Meridian CEO William Prentice offered additional insights on the North Dakota and Texas projects. 
See the linked article on for his perspective.
Learning to "get around" environmental regulations.

The Market: For The Archives -- March 11, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Dow: plummets. Boeing. Ethiopia. 737 MAX 8. 157 people killed. Southwest Airlines. FAA warning/oversight. Spirit Airlines flies Airbus. Data points:
  • Boeing closed at $422.54 on Friday, before the crash
  • Boeing, in early trading, first trading day after the crash: $386
  • the 737 MAX 8: one of Boeing's top selling planes
WTI: $56.57. Supposedly oil prices "rose" because of reports that Saudi Arabia plans to curb exports in April. We'll see. 

How irrelevant is Venezuela? Over the weekend, apparently "all" oil production/export activities stopped due to country-wide electricity blackouts.
  • WTI: up 55 cents/bbl
  • Brent crude: up 64 cents
  • OPEC basket: up 53 cents
  • inconsequential. period. dot.

Random Look At An Oasis Three Forks Well -- March 11, 2019

  • Oasis
  • Three Forks, first bench
  • only 4.1 million lbs sand
  • 50 stages
The well:
  • 33660, 145, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 3T, Banks, 50 stages; 4.1 million lbs, t9/18; cum 78K 1/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From the file report:
  • second of four wells to be drilled from this pad
  • "a single middle Three Forks 1st bench lateral"
  • surface hole drilled earlier
  • re-entered on January 15, 2018
  • vertical hole drilled to a depth of 11,494 feet; planned bit trip to 8,411 feet
  • TD: 21,046 feet
  • TD reached: January 24, 2018
  • drilling: 10 days
  • was in the desired target interval for 88% within target, opening 9,567 feet of reservoir rock
  • lower Bakken: recorded at 11,102 feet TVD; promising hydrocarbon shows
  • Pronghorn: TVD at 11,129 feet; no visible oil stain
  • Three Forks - 1st bench: entered at 11,133 feet TVD; the blue green shale did not display any significant amount of oil staining or visible porosity
  • the geologist considered the well as an engineering and geological success based on the combination of:
  • maximum exposure to the target
  • minimal days from re-entry to total depth
  • no Pronghorn strikes
  • no sidetracks
The Book Page

I've completed The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Richard Rhodes, c. 1986. It will now go on the top shelf, and will become a reference book.

I am now reading L.E.L.: The Lost Life and Scandalous Death of Letitia Elizabeth Landon, the Celebrated "Female Byron," Lucasta Miller, c. 2019. I saw the review in The WSJ. I pre-ordered it on March 3, or thereabouts. It was released March 5, 2019, and I received it, free shipping, from Amazon, a "free" copy -- from "points."

Her first book: The Brontë Myth, one of my favorite books regarding the Brontës.

Random Look At A CLR Three Forks Second Bench Well -- March 11, 2019

  • CLR
  • Three Forks, second bench
  • 82 stages
  • typical amount of proppant; maybe on slightly high side for the Bakken; 
The well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The file report:
  • spud date: July 4, 2015
  • vertical operations ceased July 12, 2015
  • TD date: August 21, 2015
  • TVD: 11,330
  • build section began July 13, 2015 
  • horizontal section: drilling began August 17, 2015
  • most of the lateral in the upper half of the zone, where definition of markers were better
  • total depth reached on August 21, 2015, in a single run
  • the internal 1 shale top of the Three Forks was intercepted at 11,296 feet TVD
  • the second bench was entered at 11,306 feet
  • seventh well be be drilled in this section
  • planned total depth: 21,902 feet; actual reported: 21,871 feet

Fun With Graphs -- March 11, 2019

Something tells me that natural gas will be the energy story of the 21st century.

In the US:
  • registered automobiles: 264 million (2015)
  • 750,000 registered EVs (in China, 1.2 million)
  • percent EVs/registered autos in the US: 0.28%
Now, imagine the graphs below if even 1% of all registered automobiles in the US were fully plug-in EVs:

In this graphic, remember that [nameplate] capacity is being measured, not the actual output. For that, one determines the "capacity factor."

For a further discussion of nameplate capacity, actual output, and the capacity factor:
Once one understands the capacity factor and actual output, one understands why it is politically correct to provide graphs of "installed capacity" and not the real data that is useful to the average consumer.

The three industries that will drive US electricity demand in the coming years:
  • EVs
  • marijuana industry
  • data centers
EVs: forecast for 2030.

By the way, on another note, those residential transformers you see in your neighborhood, hanging from utility poles? With the addition of just two or three EVs in your neighborhood, those transformers will have to be upgraded.

Anecdote: in a high-income neighborhood near where we live, with about eight houses total, a transformer blew out late Friday night (March 8, 2019). The granddaughters heard the "explosion" just before the lights went out. EVs in the neighborhood: at most, two. I haven't seen any, but I suppose there are one or two. The transformer / power issue may or may not have had anything to do with electricity demand, but....

Eleven Wells Reporting Today; No DUCs -- March 11, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Monday, March 11, 2019: 38 wells for the month; 258 wells for the quarter
  • 34823, 1,139, CLR, Vatne 7-25H, Hamlet, t9/18; cum 66K 1/19;
  • 34822, 845, CLR, Rosenquist 7-24H, Hamlet, t9/18; cum 61K 1/19;
  • 34733, 2,502, CLR, Pasadena 9X-11H, Banks, t11/18; cum 86K 1/19;
  • 34732, 2,008, CLR, Pasadena 8X-11H1, Banks, t11/18; cum 54K 1/19;
  • 33834, 706, Oasis, Berquist 5298 13-27 6T, Banks, t9/18; cum 90K 1/19;
Sunday, March 10, 2019: 33 wells for the month; 253 wells for the quarter
  • 33536, 2,221, CLR, Holstein Federal 16-25HSL, Elm Tree, t1/19; cum 25K 1/19;
  • 30367, 2,318, CLR, Brandvik 7-25H2, Corral Creek, 82 stages, 10.1 million lbs, t1/19; cum 44K 1/19; see this post;
Saturday, March 9, 2019: 31 wells for the month; 251 wells for the quarter
  • 33670, 851, Enerplus, Bloosbury 150-94-05BH, Spotted Horn, t9/18; cum 68K 1/19;
  • 33663, 142, Enerplus, Speedy 150-94-05BH TF, Spotted Horn, t9/18; cum -- ;
  • 33662, 1,223, Enerplus, Berkeley 150-94-05BH, Spotted Horn, t9/18; cum 97K 1/19;
  • 33660, 145, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 3T, Banks, 50 stages; 4.1 million lbs, t9/18; cum 78K 1/19; see this post;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs66594532112

RBN Energy: part 2, New England and Maritimes in new battle for natural gas supply. Archived.
After 19 years of natural gas production from the waters off the Canadian Maritime provinces, ExxonMobil, operator of the Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP), shut down production there, effective January 1, 2019.
The closure further limits gas supply options for the already supply-constrained Maritimes and New England regions. Will the shutdown put even more stress on the already overtaxed gas pipeline system in New England? And will it spur increased flows of Western Canadian gas into northern New England and Canada’s Maritime provinces?
Today, we continue our series examining the potential impacts of SOEP’s demise on New England gas markets.
Previously, we reviewed the shutdown of SOEP on New Year’s Day 2019. Originally intended as a stepping stone to a much larger offshore gas supply presence, SOEP and its little brother, Deep Panuke, eventually went into terminal decline, and with no further commercial discoveries of natural gas reserves in the region, water encroachment, economics and declines sealed their fates.
Although SOEP was producing just 60 MMcf/d of natural gas in its final month of production (December 2018), the end of this supply has two major implications. The first is that the provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, which were already fairly isolated in terms of gas supply, now only have two remaining supply options: piped imports from the U.S. via the Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline and LNG imports from the Repsol-operated Canaport LNG import terminal in New Brunswick.
The second implication is that New England, which itself lacks sufficient pipeline connectivity, will increasingly be competing with Eastern Canada for supply, particularly in the winter months, when demand is highest.
RBN Energy needs to provide a 30-second elevator speech for their daily posts. Huge amount of interesting information but it takes an hour to go through it if one wants to find the salient points. Salient? Whatever.