The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): Production

Showing posts with label Production_State. Show all posts

Saturday, February 1, 2020

From A Reader -- Update On US Oil And Natural Gas Production -- By State -- Monthly Revisions -- February 1, 2020

These came in as three separate comments from a reader posted elsewhere. I will bring them up as a stand-alone post for easier access, commenting and the archives. This has to do with record-setting oil and gas production in the US.

First comment, actual November, 2020 crude oil data:

EIA 914 for NOV:

www.eia.gov/...

US was up over 200,000 bopd from October (slightly revised up).

Oil states and changes in order of current size down to 50,000 bopd:

State November, 2020: change in thousands of bbls

U.S. Total :12,879 203 (up 200,000 bopd from October)

Texas: 5,329 65

Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico: 1,995 91

North Dakota: 1,479 (3)

New Mexico: 1,063 59

Oklahoma: 575 (17)

Colorado: 562 7

Alaska: 485 10

California: 425 (6)

Wyoming: 293 2

Louisiana: 122 2

Utah: 102 1

Kansas: 87 (1)

Ohio: 78 (8)

Montana: 68 4

West Virginia: 51 (2)

Others: 168 (2)

TX made a nice showing at +65. So much for the "peaked Permian. I sorta want +75s. But +65 is still commendable.

As I expected, FGOM made a nice rebound at almost +100. One that I warned the naysayers about. Now, if they can do a bit more (gotta be above 2 MM for street cred), that will still help with the 13 banger.

ND flat (down slightly) as expected. We get the NDIC early so know the directionality. DEC may be tough too because of winter, could even be down some reasonable amount (-25?).

NM...ah the Land of Enchantment! OCT was actually revised UP and crossed the 1 MM bopd marker. And then we got an outstanding +59 from them for the NOV number. I sort of count on them for +25 each month, so that was great work. Just no slacking off in DEC please. Need at least another +25 to get my 13 banger, with taunting rights.

OK: I can't figure this state out. And neither can anyone else. It's even funkier than CO in how the numbers move. But...well the bloom is off the rose hard for the Anadarko. Seems like it's showing in the rig counts and then the production (-17). Still...a quixotic jog up next month would help the cause.

CO: Eh...close to flat (+7). Could use a little bit more next month. Especially since I sort of group OK and CO together. So put down the doobies and cover up for your slacking mountain boomer brethren.

AK: Up +10 and every bit helps. But most of it's seasonal rebound was a couple months ago. At this point, we actually know the AK figures for DEC (from STEO/weeklies) off of pipe flow. And should be flat in DEC.

CA: Down a bit. Still lots of oil left in this state but impossible to do business with the liberals in control. Continues it's slow decline. Probably flat in DEC.

WY: Close to flat at +2. Flat seems reasonable expectation for DEC.

LA: See WY.

UT and KS: See WY but +1, -1.

OH: Kind of a big drop. But they have a lot of recent wells that are high decline. And have been extremely sensitive to oil (and even gas) prices in the past, both up and down. Given situation, have to expect another small decline in DEC.

MT: Kind of strange how this state has been stealthily climbing up, last few months. Nice +4 gain and in striking distance of three-quarters of 100,000 bopd. Realistically DEC will probably be small decline, based on weather and activity.

WV: Down a couple but hanging in the 50+ club. How many people realize the App makes significant oil! Paging James "I have more citations than you do" Hamilton!

Others: Down 2, close to flat and only 168,000 left total. Nothing significant within the states to get that down 2. Expect continued small declines, maybe a couple more, in DEC. Tired old states like IL and MI and the like. MS is the closest to crossing into the 50+ club (at 48), but there's no activity there, so not gonna happen.

Second comment: forecast data, crude oil, for December, 2020:

By state or region:

TX: +65 (like +75 but being reasonable)

FGOM: +25 (I still think there is more to give back from hurricane return.)

ND: -25 (flat would be nice, but being reasonable given weather)

NM: +25 (worried about a relapse after so much growth...but then also the growth is a Bayesian indicator for more...so fine, +25)

AK: +5 (too lazy to check, but think there's a little more maintenance recovery)

All others: -10 (matching last month change)

Total change: +85.

This would give us a 12.964. Sorta rounds out to a 13.0. But I'm not sure if I can taunt based off of that. Perhaps not. It's not really a 13-handle.

Still, it will be a nailbiter. If ND could "hold the line" that would be an extra 25 and get us up to 12.989. Then...if TX could scrunch down and give us the +75 instead of the +65, that would get us to 12.999! Ai yi yi! Need OK/CO to do some little statistical randomness wiggle and give us an uptick (any uptick) and all others hold the line in order to get our taunting rights.

Third comment, natural gas, November data and some December forecasts:

Not gonna analyze the gas in detail.

www.eia.gov/...

But still, you're looking at over 107 BCF/d wet in lower 48. (Always have to separate out AK gas as it is stranded.)

PA is kissingly close to 20 BCF/d (19.911). Has a chance to hit it in DEC.

TX went up ~0.2 BCF/d last month and is close to 30 BCF/d. But probably a bit too far to get there in DEC. "Only" 29.337 now.

New Mexico Goes Over One Million BOPD -- February 1, 2020

From a reader's comment elsewhere:

New Mexico says hello. Hello, TX, US-GOM, and ND.

Coming into the millionaires club now.

Could have busted in here a couple months ago. Just got SEP and OCT revised up."

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPNM2&f=M.

Amazing how fast that happened.

Sunday, July 7, 2019

ND Oil Production To Surge -- Lynn Helms -- July 7, 2019

From Geoff Simon this week:

North Dakota crude oil production remained steady in the month of April, and the state's top oil regulator says that will likely continue until additional natural gas processing infrastructure comes on line later this year.

Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources, said even though oil numbers are steady, natural gas production continues to grow, challenging producers to build facilities to capture and process all the gas. Helms said a lot of construction is happening this summer and fall, which he expects will allow the state's producers to get back into compliance with the North Dakota's 88% gas capture target.

Helms said once the natural gas processing infrastructure is in place, he expects the state will see a surge in oil production, pushing it close to the country of Norway, which produces more than 1.6 million barrels per day.

If North Dakota was a country, it would currently rank 17th in the world in production.

At the start of the boom, Bentek suggested the Bakken could/would/should produce 2.2 million bopd.

Later, see comments below. I had not visited "Peak Oil Barrel" in a long, long time. From the linked article in the comments below:

North Dakota is on an 8-month plateau. No one expected this. Does this mean North Dakota has peaked? There is little doubt that Eagle Ford has peaked. Will North Dakota be the second major shale basin to peak? That was through April, 2019.

Good, bad, or indifferent, it was mentioned years ago that after the "boom," the Bakken would move into the "manufacturing" stage.

Friday, November 2, 2018

Idle Rambling On A Friday Night -- November 2, 2018

From SeekingAlpha on CLR. And that is taken from a Platts article.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Now, back to the linked article. Summary:

Continental Resources doubles its estimate for oil recovery from North Dakota's Bakken shale, claiming 30B-40B barrels of the 250B barrels of oil in place will be recovered instead of the 20B barrels it estimated in 2011
"With today's completion technology we are recovering 15% and potentially 20% of the oil in place on a primary basis," CLR President Jack Stark said during today's earnings conference call, "substantially higher than the recoveries that we thought possible back in 2011."
"There's a lot more oil to come out of the Bakken," said Chairman and CEO Harold Hamm.
Using a North Dakota industry estimate that ~50K potential wells remain to be drilled in the Bakken, Stark said each well would have to produce 570K barrels to reach CLR's new estimates for recoverable oil - "clearly a reasonable expectation for Bakken wells on average," according to Stark.
North Dakota oil production averaged a record 1.29M bbl/day in August, and CLR says its output accounted for 12% of that production.
Earlier: Continental Resources +2.5% as Bakken production reaches quarterly record (October 29, 2018)

This is a keeper. Read those stats again.

OOIP: CLR is apparently sticking with 250 billions of original oil in place (OOIP) in the Bakken; that's a far cry from a trillion-bbl reservoir suggested at one time; but, I'm sticking with the Bakken being a 500-bbl OOIP reservoir, and wouldn't bet against a trillion bbls, but I'm inappropriate exuberant about the Bakken.

Primary production, defintion: in the early days of the Bakken, the consensus -- tight oil was called "tight" for a reason; drillers would only be able to recover 1 - 3% of OOIP in primary production. Primary production is all that production before enhanced recovery is required, such as water flooding and/or CO2 injection. Oil recovered after work-overs; re-fracks; etc, is still considered primary production. Primary production can go on for decades.

Primary production, Whiting, the early days: in the early days of the Bakken, the consensus was that drillers would get only 1 -3% of the OOIP by primary production. This blog was the first, as far as I am aware, that suggested drillers were getting as much as 4 - 6% even when pundits were still talking about 1 - 3%. Then Whiting, either intentionally or by mistake, mentioned in one of their conference calls that they were either already getting upwards of 12% or expected to reach that threshold before it was all over. That was a long, long time ago, and my memory may be faulty, but I vaguely recall something along that line.

Primary production, CLR, now: CLR says that "we are now recovering 15% of the OOIP and Harold Hamm thinks they could eventually get to 20%. Let's do the math:

a EUR-type curve of 1 million bbls
15% of what = 1 million bbls
OOIP: 6.7 million bbls [check the math: 0.15 x 6.7 = 1 million bbls]
so, let's go with 6.7 million bbls OOIP for any given well
20% of 6.7 million bbls OOIP takes us to 1.34 million bbls -- CLR is already reporting EUR-type curves of over 1.2 million bbls

Number of wells yet to be drilled in the Bakken: 50,000. The North Dakota Bakken boom began in 2007, and was headed for about 2,000 new wells/year but then plateaued at about 1,000 to 1,5000 new wells per year. Using 1,500 new wells / year, eleven years in the Bakken puts us at [11 x 1500] 16,500 Bakken wells. So, let's see what NDIC says. According to the most recent Director's Cut, there were 15,103 producing wells in August, 2018, which by the way, was an all-time record. Wow, not too far off the mark. So, we can safely say , one can expect about 1,500 new wells/year. 50,000 new wells / 1,500 = 33 more years of drilling.

Years of production: just for grins, let's assume the OOIP is actually 500 billion bbls -- again, I'm inappropriately exuberant with regard to the Bakken -- and let's assume that for whatever reason, North Dakota maxes out at 2 million bopd production. Let's do the math:

15% primary recovery
15% of 500 billion bbls = 75 billion bbls
75 billion bbls / 2 million bopd / 365 = 100 years of production
Now if each well has a EUR of, let's say 1.5 million bbls, how many wells would that require?
75 billion bbls by primary recovery / 1.5 million bbls / well = 50,000 wells
50,000 wells -- interesting. We're back to the same number suggested above -- another 50,000 wells to drill out the Bakken

Disclaimer: math is not my first language. There will be simple arithmetic errors on this page. In addition, in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. This is done for my benefit. No one should take any of this too seriously.

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Year-End -- 2018 -- North Dakota Crude Oil Production Data

EIA released year-end (2016) US crude oil and natural gas proved reserves at this link.

It's my understanding that year-end production numbers for the US for 2017 will be released by the EIA in July (2018).

But at the NDIC site, we already have that data, a PDF will load. For the year, the average was 1,081,525 bbls/day.

Click on the graphic below to see comments inside the graphic.

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Taking Inventory

Sophia loves her My Busy Books sold at huge discounts at Barnes and Noble. These are five or six hardcover reading books to be read by adults to pre-readers, with a special section in the back that holds a giant "map" -- about 36" by 30" of heavy plastic-like material -- and twelve little action figures. She has four of these books (of which I am aware) including Dory, Finding Nemo, and Coco.

The other day, it appeared she was taking inventory of the Coco action figures.

Monday, May 1, 2017

Top Producers In North Dakota; Top Producing Wells In North Dakota -- Drilling Edge -- May 1, 2017

Dynamic link here.

Top North Dakota oil producers alphabetical at source:

Top North Dakota oil producers by production:

Operator	December 2016
Whiting	3,637,531
CLR	2,818,120
Hess	2,487,533
XTO	1,823,113
Oasis	1,650,165
EOG	1,613,221
BR	1,525,064
QEP	1,404,148
Marathon	1,358,676
Statoil	1,212,170
WPX	1,019,381
HRC	961,870
SM Energy	767,260
Petro-Hunt	643,251
Newfield	559,690
Enerplus	549,603
Slawson	541,957
Lime Rock Resources	408,995
Zavanna	358,909
Denbury	296,309

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Top producing wells in North Dakota, alphabetical at source:

Top producing wells in North Dakota, monthly production:

Operator	Well	February 2017
QEP	Tipi V	34,237
Oasis	Rolfson N	31,407
Whiting	Rolla Federal	30,960
CLR	Charolais	29,471
QEP	Tipi V	27,356
Oasis	Rolfson N	24,666
Oasis	Rolfson N	23,880
Oasis	Johnsrud	23,509
Whiting	Rolla Federal	18,433
Whiting	Rolla Federal	18,307
Whiting	Flatland	18,082
Whiting	Rolla Federal	16,281
Whiting	Rolla Federal	15,510
Whiting	Rolla Federal	15,510
Whiting	Chameleon	15,058
WPX	Helena	13,763
WPX	Helena	12,627
Whiting	Flatland	10,921
WPX	Wells	2,844
CLR	Holstein	1,692

Top producing wells in North Dakota, alphabetical by producer:

Operator	Well	February 2017
WPX	Helena	13,763
WPX	Helena	12,627
WPX	Wells	2,844
Whiting	Rolla Federal	30,960
Whiting	Rolla Federal	18,433
Whiting	Rolla Federal	18,307
Whiting	Flatland	18,082
Whiting	Rolla Federal	16,281
Whiting	Rolla Federal	15,510
Whiting	Rolla Federal	15,510
Whiting	Chameleon	15,058
Whiting	Flatland	10,921
QEP	Tipi V	34,237
QEP	Tipi V	27,356
Oasis	Rolfson N	31,407
Oasis	Rolfson N	24,666
Oasis	Rolfson N	23,880
Oasis	Johnsrud	23,509
CLR	Charolais	29,471
CLR	Holstein	1,692

Friday, September 23, 2016

Update On The Bakken -- Lynn Helms -- September 23, 2016

There may be factual and typographical errors on this page. Some of this is my own opinion. If this information is important to you, to go the source.

Do not rely on the MillionDollarWay blog for accurate information about the Bakken. The website's author is inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Data points from The Williston Herald and a radio interview, September 23, 2016:

North Dakota production will likely dip below 1 million bopd but not below 900,000 bopd
wells continue to get better and better
Bakken is 94% oil (important fact to remember when comparing the Bakken with the Permian and the Eagle Ford)
if IPs used to average 1,100, now they are averaging 1,500
at the beginning of the boom, Bakken wells were estimated to continue producing for 30 years; now it is estimated that Bakken wells will produce for 35 years
Bakken wells EURs have increased 25%
8,000 to 8,500 wells drilled using old technology might be good refrack candidates
high point for the Bakken: 2023

based on $50 to $60 oil
65,000 wells
peak rig count of 150
in a slow year (current year, for example), "we" won't reach 2,500 wells drilled/year
in one scenario, those additional wells won't be drilled until 2035, but with a spike in oil prices, they could be drilled in 2017

forecasting important: it affects issues such as crew camps
oil in the $50 to $60 range: 900 DUCs highly economical
frack crews now average in the range of five to eleven (5 - 11)
at peak prices, there were 50 frack crews operating in the Bakken
at $60 oil, the Bakken is superior to the Permian and the Eagle Ford
today's rigs average 25 wells/year vs 8 or 9 wells in 2009
multi-well pads, new bit technology, new motor technology, new mud technology
recently an operator drilled a 3-mile lateral with one bit and one motor (previously reported at the blog); typically, an operator would require three bits/well
Lynn Helms does not sound optimistic about the DAPL

A reminder: tight oil plays in the US -- EIA -- annual energy outlook (2016) -- out to 2040: graphic here.

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Air Park East Of Williston

Red Mike golf course east of Williston; air park moving along. Opportunity for individuals to build homes next to runway for private airplanes. Approval to close a section line road to the lake was approved. There are two access points to the lake in the immediate area: one access point one mile to the east, and one access point one mile west.