Monday, January 13, 2025

SpaceX Update -- January 13, 2025

Locator: 44680MUSK.

Breaking: there are now rumors that Elon Musk could "buy" TikTok. Think about that for a minute. By the way, all that talk about X's problems? X is stronger than ever.  Meta? Watch out Mark.

Breaking: this is also a most amazing video ever -- released by the source himself.

Rumor: China's EV boom may break down in 2025. If so .... truly the year the music died.

SpaceX.

At some point, this story simply gets too big to ignore. 

Elon Musk launched 21 Starlink satellites this morning.

I watched this launch and booster recovery live this morning -- it was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen. And for SpaceX it's becoming routine.

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The Book Page 

I mentioned this book the other day. It arrived today. Harlem: The Making of a Ghetto, Negro New York, 1890 - 1930, second edition, Gilbert Osofsky, first copyright, 1963; most recent copyright, 1996. 

 Gilbert Osofsky: died at age 39, August 31, 1974, NY Times obituary here.


 

Enerplus Wiith Six New Permits -- January 13, 2025

Locator: 44678B.

Southern California fires: I now have a pretty good idea of what happened in Pacific Palisades. It now makes complete sense. A few i's to dot and a few t's to cross but the dots are now all connected. Now that I have it figured out, my blogging on this disaster will pretty much come to an end. I may update periodically, but I'm pretty much done with this story.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.67. $78 is closer to $100 than to $40.

Active rigs: 33.

Six new permits, #41505 - #41510 inclusive:

  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Heart Butte (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has permits for six wells on the Bowling pad, SWSE 20-149-92; the wells are: Sleeper, Pin, Chef, Split, Duckpin, and Trophy, 
      • to be sited 653 FSL and 1333 / 1508 FEL. Five of the six wells will be 1280-acre spacing (17/20-149-92) and the sixth will be 4-section spacing: 16/17/20/21-149-92.

One permit was canceled:

  • 39766: WPX, Sarah Yellow Wolf 22-27HZ (see this page for WPX permits recently canceled).

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 37939, 117, BR, Boxer 4A MBH, McKenzie




Investing Opportunities -- January 13, 2025

Locator: 44678LNG.

Link here.




That Third Of Three Reservoirs? Empty Since 2009 Or 2010 -- January 13, 2025

Locator: 44677FIRES.

For those more interested in the Bakken, one can do the same thing for that area as described below.

Pacific Palisades fire.

That third of three reservoirs?

Hasn't had water in it since 2009 or 2010. Hard to say exactly when it last had water.

Click on google earth

SearchSanta Ynez Reservoir, Pacific Palisades (cut and paste).

At top of page, click on "icon" for timeline.

Then simply go year-by-year, or every six months.

If. you zoom in, you can see Homer Simpson in the parking lot. 

Needs to be fact-checked. Perhaps they fill it for a few weeks during fire season every year, and the satellite simply didn't catch the filled reservoir, though prior to 2009 many images of a filled reservoir.

Focus On Dividends -- EPD Raises Its Dividend -- January 13, 2025

Locator: 44676DIV.

Link here

Recent investors earning over 6.5%; long-term EPD investors earning a whole lot more.

Stupid, Helpless, Bandit And Intelligent -- A "Tectonic" Election -- January 13, 2025

Locator: 44675OPED.

From The WSJ: link here -- 

Cipolla divides people into four categories: helpless, bandit, intelligent and stupid. In any normal interaction between two people, he contends, the helpless person suffers a loss while the other gains. The bandit exacts a benefit while levying a loss on the other. The intelligent person gains while enabling the other person also to gain. The defining trait of the stupid person is that he gains nothing while obliging the other to take a loss. 

Mr. Trump’s fans can argue with his despisers about whether he belongs in the category of bandit or intelligent, but he definitely can’t be classified as stupid according to Cipolla’s definition.

The astounding fact of recent years, however, is that Mr. Trump’s chief political opponent—Joe Biden—is a perfect specimen of Cipolla’s idea of stupidity. For four years, Mr. Biden has made decisions and pursued policies that made his supporters, party, country and foreign allies worse off, and in almost every case he has gained nothing and very often suffered commensurate political losses. You could make a cogent argument that Mr. Biden belongs in the category of helpless, so often do his decisions benefit his political adversaries, chiefly Mr. Trump, and not himself. But those blunders—principal among them his insistence that he was capable of running for re-election—have exacted massive costs on the rest of the country.

For three years Mr. Biden made it policy to do nothing on the country’s southern border apart from revoking Mr. Trump’s executive orders. What did he gain from this dereliction? The answer isn’t obvious. 

Mr. Biden overrode his military advisers and insisted on a total and immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan, with no clear plan to extract Afghan allies, U.S. citizens or American military hardware. A loss for the U.S., for sure. But where was the benefit to Mr. Biden or his administration?

Mr. Biden openly defied the Supreme Court’s ruling on his student-debt cancellation plan (the justices “tried to block me, but they didn’t stop me”). He thus managed to sow resentment among Americans whose debts he didn’t forgive, encourage a generation to indulge in foolish borrowing, and make himself look like the lawless strongman he accused Mr. Trump of being.

In each of these instances—and there are many others—Mr. Biden not only created ruin, discord and embarrassment for those who wished him well; he did so without gaining any advantage for himself.

This perhaps explains why he has been so comparatively active since losing the election in November. These are the months when, no longer beholden to the electorate, an outgoing president can do things he knows to be dumb or counterproductive and suffer no harm for it.

In December, Mr. Biden pardoned 1,499 criminals, many of them guilty of heinous offenses and showing no signs of repentance. What was the point, other than to attract the praise of a little band of activists and the righteous scorn of everybody else? Then the president commuted 37 of 40 capital sentences. In a single move, he managed to offend the families of murdered victims (some of them children), express his contempt for the law and the courts (there was no question of the trials’ fairness) and reveal that he has no principled objection to the death penalty (he passed over the three most infamous killers). And for all that, he gained nothing for his legacy or his party.

Much more at the linked opinion.

Meanwhile, did Trump just win a "tectonic" election? Link here.

From the linked oped:

“I was at first inclined to think of this election simply as a repudiation election,” he says. He now suspects that Mr. Trump’s victory might be a “tectonic election”—one that marks a permanent structural change in the American electorate and political parties.

He characterizes only three past elections as tectonic—1800, when Thomas Jefferson defeated John Adams and the Federalist Party quickly withered; 1860, when Lincoln’s victory established the Republicans as a major party that would dominate presidential politics for seven decades; and 1932, when Franklin D. Roosevelt trounced Herbert Hoover and cemented the modern Democratic coalition.

If your name isn’t Donald Trump, the idea that 2024 could join this list may strike you as counterintuitive. Kamala Harris carried 19 states and received more than 48% of the aggregate popular vote. Mr. Trump didn’t even manage a majority. (Neither did Lincoln, but he had three significant opponents.)

“It’s not a landslide in terms of numbers,” Mr. Guelzo acknowledges, “but it is a landslide morally speaking. What I mean by that is that the DNC was running against a presidential candidate that everybody was convinced was unelectable against nearly anyone. They could have put up almost any candidate and the confidence was that the country was simply not going to buy the idea of a return of Donald Trump to the White House.”

A Number Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List As WTI Goes Over $78 -- Monday, January 13, 2025

Locator: 44674B.

Investing, link here:

Brilliant: Elon Musk positioning Cybertrucks throughout southern California with Starlink access for folks to charge their mobile devices / access internet. Absolutely brilliant. First responders now using those Cybertrucks.  

Wind gusts: starting tomorrow, southern California expecting 70+ mph wind gusts. Will last about 24 hours.

Childhood vaccination rates: terrifying. And sad. Link here. Can't fix stupid.

California fires: a question not being asked -- to what extent did EVs exacerbate neighborhood fires? Once those fires start, FDs can't put them out and huge amounts of water are used, generally with little success.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.23.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, January 14, 2025: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 21 for the year,
    • None.
  • Monday, January 13, 2025: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 21 for the year,
    • 40587, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Simpson LW 5-8 12H,
    • 40199, conf, Grayson Mill, Hopes 30-27F 5H,
  • Sunday, January 12, 2025: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 19 for the year,
    • 40588, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Simpson LW 5-8 5H,
    • 40295, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 2B TFH,
  • Saturday, January 11, 2025: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 17 for the year,
    • 40083, conf, Hess, EN-Halvorson-157-9-3229H-6,
    • 40565, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Simpson 5-8 6H,

RBN Energy: Biden removes vast offshore areas from drilling, but impact is largely symbolic

With just a few days left in office, President Biden on January 6 made a final effort to shape U.S. energy policy and development by permanently banning new oil and gas drilling across more than 625 million acres of coastal waters.
Using an obscure provision of a 1953 law, the Outer Continental Land Shelf Act (OCLSA), the president signed an executive order banning future drilling in federal waters off the Eastern Seaboard, the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the West Coast and portions of the northern Bering Sea in Alaska. The ban is largely just for show, but in today’s RBN blog we’ll discuss why it might cause headaches for the “drill, baby, drill” Trump administration.