Thursday, October 24, 2013

New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Active rigs: 181 (steady)

Seventeen (17) new permits --
  • Operators: XTO (7), HRC (5), Sequel (2), Sinclair (1), Enduro (1), Hess (1)
  • Fields: Ellisville (Williams), Lone Tree Lake (Williams), Robinson Lake (Mountrail), Mouse River Park (Renville), Beaver Lodge (Williams), Otter (Williams), Temple (Williams), Bully (McKenzie),  Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Beaver Lodge -- where the North Dakota discovery well -- the "Clarence Iverson" was spud in 1951
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier today; see sidebar at the right.

35 wells were transferred from Liberty Resources to KOG.

Wells coming off the confidential list, Friday, October 25, 2013:
  • 22211, 1,827, WPX, George Evans 13-23HC, Van Hook, t9/13; cum 6K 8/13;
  • 23735, drl, BR, Bryce 11-5MBH, Westberg, no production data,
  • 24299, drl, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-13A-24-3H, Eagle Nest, no production data,
  • 24588, 978, HRC, Rossland 157-101-22C-15-2H, Otter, t6/13; cum 20K 8/13;
  • 25317, 329, Slawson, Bandit 3-29H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 13K 8/13;
  • 25369, 1,559, XTO, Thaxton 24X-35A, West Capa, t9/13; cum --

CNBC In Williston

I wish I had more time to write more about this video, but I am pressed for time. Maybe more later.

A reader sent this to me. I had just missed the video yesterday, so I was thrilled to get it.

There are several story lines in this short segment. Enjoy.

The interview is taking place in Williston's El Rancho sports restaurant. 

Let's Just Say Whiting Blew Away The Analysts

Average estimate: $1.09.

Actual earnings: $1.71/share. Earning call here (i assume this link will break over time.)


As in sweet crude.

As in Bakken sweet crude.

Reuters is reporting:
Whiting Petroleum Corp, which drills for oil and natural gas in North Dakota, Texas and other shale-rich states, said its quarterly profit more than doubled as production jumped 12 percent.
The company posted third-quarter net income of $204.1 million, or $1.71 per share, compared with $82.9 million, or 70 cents per share, in the year-ago period.
Excluding a non-cash $15.7 million loss on crude oil and natural gas derivatives and other one-time items, Whiting posted profit of $1.28 per share.
By that measure, analysts had forecast earnings of $1.09 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Average quarterly production rose 12 percent over the same period last year to 92,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).
The stock is up only 46% this year.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Please, whatever you do, do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you might have read here. 

Hey, on another note, here is a video of bringing in some Percheron horses east of Williston, just west of the Epping oil field. These are colts, I assume yearlings, being brought in for the winter:

East of Williston, North Dakota, heart of the Bakken; note all the oil wells in the background. 


For Investors Only

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you might have read here. 

Sixteen companies announced dividend increases, including AEP.

Several companies reported earnings today; many beat expectations.

Noble Energy beats by $0.01, beats on revs: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.97 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.96; revenues rose 38.7% year/year to $1.39 bln vs the $1.38 bln consensus.

Does It Even Matter Any More? The Weekly Jobless Reports

The revisions always how an increase in the number of first-time jobless applying for benefits: this time it was 4,000. Four thousand first-time jobless applied for benefits more than were initially reported. (Does that grammatically sound right?)

There is always an "excuse." The excuse this time: computer glitches in California. I think they've been using the "California computer glitch" ("my dog ate my homework") excuse for about two months now.

So, in the Obama Parallel Universe everything is hunky dory -- everyone is signing up for ObamaCare and everybody is working. It is simply the computer glitches and the websites that are not reporting accurate data. What, me worry? [Which reminds me: the federal government has asked Blue Cross/Blue Shield NOT to report numbers of new ObamaCare enrollees. I can't make this stuff up, either.]

Reuters is reporting:
A Labor Department analyst said claims from the backlog in California were still working their way through the system.
Technical problems as California converted to a new computer system have distorted the claims data since September, making it difficult to get a clear read of labor market conditions.
I can't make this stuff up. And folks think the ObamaCare webpage can handle 7 million enrollees. Or whatever number one chooses.

But, for the archives, what are the fictitious numbers this week?
  • analysts expected number to fall to 340,000
  • actual: numbers rose to 350,000 (note how perfectly round that number is)
  • revised from last week: add 4,000 to the number
The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 10,750 to 348,250. So, five years into this administration, umpteen years into this "recovery" and the four-week moving average is increasing. This is great news for the stock market: Ms Yellen is not going to taper, and the market knows it. It is up almost 50 points in early trading.

And for newbies: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here; or what you think you may have read here. For investment advice, follow: Jim Cramer, Herb Greenberg, and Alfred E Neuman. And 10,000 other talking heads.

ObamaCare Off To Roaring Start In North Dakota is reporting: 14 North Dakotans have signed up for ObamaCare through Blue Cross/Blue Shield since the program went live October 1, 2013. That, apparently, has brought statewide enrollment to 20.


It begs the question: is that more, less, or about the same that would have signed up in this same time period even without the mandate? 

Eagle Ford Hits 1 Million BOPD; The Bakken On Track To Be Not Far Behind

Reuters via Rigzone is reporting:
In the U.S. shale oil race, the Eagle Ford formation in Texas has beaten North Dakota's Bakken to the 1 million barrel per day milestone, according to a U.S. Energy Information Administration report on Tuesday. The new monthly report, which is the first national effort to lay out comparable monthly figures and projections from six major shale plays, highlighted the stunning speed with which the Eagle Ford region has overtaken the Bakken region that first showed how hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology could revolutionize the oil industry.
Total production from Eagle Ford hit 1 million bpd in August and is projected to rise to 1.07 million bpd in October and to 1.09 million bpd in November, the EIA report showed. The Bakken, mostly in North Dakota, is expected to produce 935,000 bpd in October and 960,000 bpd in November. The Bakken is the more mature of the two, with drilling ongoing since 2003. The Eagle Ford, which initially was seen as a natural gas play, did not have notable oil drilling until early 2009, according to consultant IHS.
I don't think anyone is complaining. 

Definition of "Zones" In Various Oil Fields In The Bakken

Some folks over at The Bakken Shale Discussion Group have been asking about rules/regulations and definitions of "zones" in various oil fields in the Bakken.  A reader has provided this:
North Dakota Century Code 38-08-07 which can be found on slide 20 if you go to the NDIC web site and click on rules and regulations will explain zones in the context I believe you are looking for.
If you search for the word zones in that 270 some page document you find other definitions in my opinion.
From that document:
When necessary to prevent waste, to avoid the drilling of unnecessary wells, or to
protect correlative rights, the commission shall establish spacing units for a pool.
Spacing units when established must be of uniform size and shape for the entire pool,
except that when found to be necessary for any of the purposes above mentioned, the
commission is authorized to divide any pool into zones and establish spacing units
for each zone, which units may differ in size and shape from those established in any other zone

Update Of Economic Development in Dickinson

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
  • as many as five new retail and commerce areas are "in the works"; some nearly complete
  • West Ridge development, I-94 exit 59 -- Menards "well underway"
  • Prairie Hills Mall, Plaza 619, area -- the new Anytime Fitness building near completion
  • new project west of the Ramada Grand Dakota Lodge awaiting foundations
  • Pinecrest, the Meyer Real Estate Group project, north of West Ridge, 30th Avenue West
  • Dickinson Town Center, the Five Diamond development, south of I-94 exit 59, 30th Avenue West
  • Dickinson Town Center (Utah developer): first phase includes Cash Wise (grocery), JoAnn Fabric, Petco, Dollar Tree
  • Oppidan Investment Company (Minnesota developer): several restaurants, hotels, a movie theater


Active rigs: 181 (steady, trending down)

RBN Energy: Pricing -- Brent, WTI, Alaska North Slope (California) --
WTI for prompt delivery closed $10.94/Bbl below Brent on Wednesday (October 23, 2013). Brent prices are disconnected from WTI and Light Louisiana Sweet because the Gulf Coast is awash with light sweet crude. West Coast crude prices on the other hand are supposed to march to a different tune – isolated from new shale and Canadian crude supplies and thus expected to continue tracking international Brent. But ANS prices on the West Coast have fallen to more than $5/Bbl below Brent in the past 2 weeks and seem to be tracking WTI. Is this just a temporary aberration or could it be signaling another step change in the road to US crude independence? Today we take a closer look at what’s going on.
US crude oil market analysis tends to be dominated by the spread between US domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and international benchmark Brent – aka “The Spread”. However, the West Coast market is more concerned with pricing for the dominant grade consumed there - Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude. ANS is shipped to refineries in Washington State and California from the Valdez Marine Terminal at the southern end of the Trans Alaska Pipeline (TAPS). We have previously documented the decline in ANS crude production from its heyday 2MMb/d in the 1980’s to 520 Mb/d in 2012. ANS production has actually improved to average 528 Mb/d so far in 2013 but it remains on a slow downward trend. Without changes to existing regulations and increased production, ANS is destined to be a dwindling resource supplied only to West Coast refineries.
A Note To The Granddaughters

Nostalgia is a funny thing. It stops me in my tracks.  I have a lot of work each morning, getting caught up: tons of e-mail to get through, replying to folks with questions about the Bakken, updating wells that come off the confidential list, and reading stories sent to me readers. Which brings me to this.

I spent a lot of time in Yorkshire County, England, UK, between 2002 and 2007. I spent my weekends hiking throughout the countryside. Many of my favorite trips were to National Trust sites, a public trust that preserved historic British landmarks (castles, homes, estates, parks, etc). Don sent me a story today from AFP via Yahoo!News: the trust may consider fracking to develop natural gas under its holdings but will NEVER allow a wind turbine permit. If one spends any time thinking about the decision by the National Trust, it makes all kinds of sense. Funding is an incredible challenge for the trust, and royalties from natural gas must be very, very enticing. So, we will see.