Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Another MRO Re-Frack -- June 4, 2019

A small re-frack; a big result.

The well (see this post):
  • 19514, 527, MRO, Jones USA 14-14H, Reunion Bay, Bakken, t4/11; cum 586K 4/19; re-fracked 7/26/2018 - 7/28/2018; 3.023 million gallons of water; 88% water; no frac data at NDIC file report;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2019301120911185736814264252410685
BAKKEN3-20193112821128051260616243387011348
BAKKEN2-20192813030130351838818162549511691
BAKKEN1-2019311384413820319631558954899150
BAKKEN12-2018136870680218265660733212866
BAKKEN11-201814034395864034375
BAKKEN10-201883648360815270493904727
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20181220110
BAKKEN7-2018001260000
BAKKEN6-201826159716733492446195011
BAKKEN5-201831235224182853433277320

Neighboring wells, 34XXX series, all fracked at same time.

For example, #34104:
  • 34104, 5,747, MRO, Hammerberg USA 14-14H, 45 stages; 9.5 million lbs; Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 296K 4/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20193020347203231028636421646627527
BAKKEN3-201931255532557319008443581061631230
BAKKEN2-201928336213378321258586431777637880
BAKKEN1-201931573735723630750831632939349084
BAKKEN12-201825247322509019147287911396913063
BAKKEN11-2018306646566579439298569286880090
BAKKEN10-20182067206667484498981170076686
BAKKEN9-2018227301225583056

English Is Perhaps Not His First Language -- June 4, 2019

English is perhaps not his first language:


We'll check back in a few days to see if this is corrected.

Update: as of June 10, 2019, the headline has not been corrected.

Gee! How Many Times Is It A "Surprise" Build? Another "Surprise" Build -- Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- June 4, 2019

Link here. Data points:
  • a "surprise" build in the US crude oil inventory
  • a whopping 3.545 million-bbl increase (note the false precision)
  • forecast: a drawdown (say what?) of 208,000 bbls (and look at that false precision - to the nearest 1,000 bbls -- a truck carries 200 bbls of oil)
Also:
  • a build in gasoline inventories
  • actual: a build of 2.7 million bbls
  • forecast: a build of 711,000 bbls
And then look at this -- distillate inventories rose by a staggering 6.314 million bbls

US crude oil production
  • 12.3 million bbls for the week ending May 24 -- an EIA estimate
  • US production resumes its all-time high that was originally hit the week of April 26, 2019
The EIA will release their weekly data tomorrow morning (June 5, 2019, 9:30 a.m. CT)

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The Art Page

From earlier this year, Sophia's pen-and-ink drawing of skiing in New Mexico with her dad:


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The Literature Page

The favorite part of my day — or — perhaps I should say: my day begins at 5:35 p.m. when I pick up Sophia from TutorTime. Her older sisters are with their dad in Europe for a month. My wife is out in Los Angeles. It’s just our adult daughter who works 12-hour days, our granddaughter Sophia, and, me.

Typically, after picking Sophia up at TutorTime we come to the apartment complex — the tenements — where she plays outside with her friends, ages four to twelve. There’s a lot of apartment complex traffic between the hours of five and eight — folks coming home from work — so I stay outside to watch Sophia.

I pull up a beach chair, bring out some snacks, a book to read, and sit along the drive-way, watching Sophia and her friends.

Today, my book is Volume II of Norman Sherry’s biography of Graham Greene. It’s a three-volume biography; I’ve read it once and parts of it more than once. Of all the biographies I’ve read, it’s one of my favorites, if not my favorite.

Among movies, #1 is Casablanca. Perhaps among biographies, #1 is Sherry’s biography of Graham Greene.

I’ve long forgotten but my hunch is that volume II of the three volumes is the most interesting. It covers the years 1939 - 1955. The volume opens in 1938; he is married, and has had several literary successes, but is still an enigma — to himself and to his readers.

I had forgotten, but I took extensive notes the first time I read the biography; it is amazing how much I used to read (between 2000 and 2007) and how much I used to journal. And then I started blogging. How sad. LOL.

North Dakota Crude Oil Production In April, 2019, Could Set A New All-Time Production Record -- June 4, 2019

Link here.

In the March, 2019, drilling report, the EIA projected that the Bakken would see an increase of 17,000 bopd in April over the preceding month of March. See screenshot from the "dashboard" for March, 2019, taken from the link above:


Now, from the most recent Diretor's Cut with March, 2019, data:
Crude oil production in March, 2019: 1,390,138 bopd
  • February, 2019: 1,335,591
    • average daily increase, month-over-month: 54,547 bopd
    • month-over-month increase: an increase of 4.1%
  • all-time high was January, 2019: 1,403,808
    • delta (January/March): 13,670 bopd
    • delta (January/March): 0.97%
Note that the March, 2019, production data (preliminary) showed that North Dakota missed an all-time crude oil daily production record by 13,670 bopd. Generally, the final results are slightly better than the preliminary results. Regardless, an increase of 17,000 bopd in April (over the March results) would mean that North Dakota would set another all-time high production record.

The April data, which will include the final production numbers for March, 2019, will be out later this month.

Disclaimer: I often make mistakes in simple arithmetic. This is only a projection.

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The Calendar Page

My wife gets very angry with me because I don't check the calendar on which she works so hard. She is out in Los Angeles for a couple of weeks. She reminded me that I need to check her calendar.

So, yesterday, I turned the page (the calendar was open to the week just completed), and this is what I saw (I can't make this stuff up):

In April -- Major Increase in Hotel Occupancy And Jump In Number Of Building Permits Issued -- Williston -- Heart Of The Bakken -- June 4, 2019

Getting ready for summer construction?

Link here:
Between April 2018 and April 2019, hotel occupancy in Williston jumped more than 16 percent, and tax revenue from hotels and restaurants increased by nearly 38 percent.
Building permits, Williston, ND, 2019. Unremarkable.

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From The Los Angeles Times Today





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The Sports Page
Women's Softball

Reminder: the second of "best-of-three" women's collegiate national championship is televised tonight. UCLA leads the series 1 - 0 with a 16-2 win last night. Playing Oklahoma.

Stanley Cup (hockey): Thursday (June 6, 2019) -- Game 5; series tied, 2 - 2.

NBA: Wednesday (June 5, 2019) -- Game 3; series tied, 1 - 1.

Whiting With Two New Permits -- June 4, 2019

Active rigs:

$53.496/4/201906/04/201806/04/201706/04/201606/04/2015
Active Rigs6461512581

Two new permits:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Whiting has two wells right on the section line, sited in section 36-153-91, Sanish/Parshall oil fields; Hauge permits;
One permit canceled: Petro-Hunt cancels a USA permit in McKenzie County (#31498).

Other than a couple of "well name changes," nothing else of note on the daily activity report today.

Shell Announces Huge Shareholder Return -- June 4, 2019

Yesterday, CLR announced initiation of a quarterly dividend, as well as a robust stock buyback plan. Earlier it had been reported that oil companies were announcing significantly increased dividends (the exact word used was "soaring).

Now, today Shell announced it is ready to return as much as $125 billion or more to shareholders (dividends and share buybacks) over the five-year period of 2021 - 2025:
  • Shell refreshes strategy for the energy future as it builds on strong foundation
  • The company is on track to deliver on its 2020 commitments; now increases organic free cash flow outlook to around $35 billion for 2025 at $60 per barrel (real terms, 2016)
  • Shell’s expected cash delivery creates the potential to distribute $125 billion or more to shareholders (dividends and share buybacks) over the five-year period of 2021-2025
Shell highlighted its delivery on commitments since the last Management Day in 2017:
  • achieved $10 billion additional cash flow from operations from new projects started up since 2014;
  • demonstrated capital discipline within committed capital range;
  • delivered $30 billion of divestments from 2016-2018;
  • cancelled the scrip dividend; and
  • started the $25 billion share buyback programme.
Much, much more at the link.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

EV Sales For May, 2019 -- Looking Good For Tesla -- June 4, 2019

Data spreadsheet pretty much complete.
  • Tesla Model 3 ("the affordable Tesla"): up significantly, from 10K in April to 14K in May; around 6K in early, 2019; so big change
  • Tesla Model X (the SUV): up significantly, from 1.4K in April to almost 2K in May; well above 1K in early 2019, but well below the year's high of 2.2K in March, 2019
  • Tesla Model S (numbers not reported yet): but in April at 825 vehicles well below the 2,275 vehicles reported delivered in March, 2019
  • Chevrolet Bolt EV: 1.4K vs less than 1K last month, but well below the 2.2K in March, 2019
  • Toyota Prius Prime, up nicely.
  • Nissan Leaf, up nicely.
  • Tesla not reporting yet.
  • Most others irrelevant except as bragging rights for those who own them
TSLA up 3.4% after the numbers came up; up $6; now trading at $185.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

By the way, this is really, really, cool. This was predicted on the blog some years ago. From Bloomberg:
GM and Fiat Chrysler have been funding Tesla by buying greenhouse emission credits from the EV carmaker, according to official filings by the two carmakers to the state of Delaware.
Tesla’s revenues from emission credit sales since 2010 have reached some US$2 billion, with the main market contributing to this being its home one in California. It is the biggest car market in the United States and it also has probably the most stringent emission rules requiring carmakers to sell a number of zero-emission vehicles that is proportional to their market share in the state. If they can’t make the necessary number of sales, they are obliged to buy emission credits from a “cleaner” carmaker.
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The Literature Page

Update: from The Bismarck Tribune -- meet the lost Lewis chessmen worth $1 million. Clickbait. It's just a video preceded by a very, very long ad. Here's the "print" story over at BBC.
A medieval chess piece that was missing for almost 200 years had been unknowingly kept in a drawer by an Edinburgh family.
They had no idea that the object was one of the long-lost Lewis Chessmen - which could now fetch £1m at auction.
The chessmen were found on the Isle of Lewis in 1831 but the whereabouts of five pieces have remained a mystery.
The Edinburgh family's grandfather, an antiques dealer, had bought the chess piece for £5 in 1964.
Previously posted, back on December 16, 2016:
I first wrote about Nancy Marie Brown's Ivory Vikings back on June 27, 2016

These notes are only from the introduction of this book. 

The book is about "modern chess" based on the Lewis chessmen. "Modern chess" arose somewhere among the Norse in the mid-12th century. The argument is who carved the Lewis chessman and/or where were they carved. The Lewis chessman were found in the early 1800s on a beach on the Isle of Lewis (hence the name of the chessmen) which is among the Hebrides, west Scotland. The argument seems to be whether the chessmen were carved in Iceland or in Trondheim, Norway; and, whether Margret the Adroit was the sculptor of most of the pieces.

The author ends the introduction stating that without a reopening of the dig at Skalholt we will never know the answer: carved in Skalholt, Iceland; or, carved in Trondheim, Norway. 

There are enough chessmen to almost comprise four full chess sets -- I believe the number of pieces lacking for four full chess sets is four.

The chessmen are made from walrus tusk from Greenland (99.999% agreed).

The book explains why the very famous match between Bobby Fischer and Boris Spassky in 1972 was held in Reykjavik, Iceland (page 16).

Today, while re-reading the book, I was struck (again) by the number of interesting words used by the author, some I was familiar with, some that were new to me. The words include:
  • Norse netsuke
  • berserk
  • underground cist (ancient burial chamber or coffin; stone or hollowed-out tree)
  • miter, chasuble, crozier
  • fey monarch
  • open fleurs-de-lis-topped crown (a personal connection)
The amount of trivia in this book is incredible. For example, this: "More medieval literature exists in Icelandic than in any other European language except Latin." -- p. 11

Chess
  • tafl: translated as "chess"
  • hnefatafl: considered a precursor to "modern" chess; translates as "fist-table" chess
  • skaktafl: Icelandic word for "chess" (modern chess)
Snorri Sturluson (wrote, 1220 - 1241): foster brother of Bishop Pall. Snorri was to Norse mythology that Homer / Hesiod were to Greek mythology.
  • Pall was born in 1155;  great-grandson of King Magnus Bare-Legs of Norway -- who conquered Scotland, the Hebrides, and the Orkney and Shetland Islands; took his nickname from his fondness for wearing kilts
  • elected Icelandic bishop; in 1194
  • Pall was Margret the Adroit's patron
  • Skalholt Cathedral: largest wooden church in all of Scandinavia at the time; southern Iceland; burned to the ground in 1309
Norway and the King Magnus family rules Scotland until 1266 (for about 150 years)
Bottom line: tight relations between Iceland and Scotland; tight relations between Scotland and Norway.

Icelandic timeline:
  • 870: first settlements in Iceland
  • 1000: conversion to Christianity in Iceland
  • 1053: first Icelandic bishop elected
Viking Age: late 8th century to mid-11th century; Vikings regularly associated with Byzantium
  • official begins 793 with the sacking of Lindisfarne Abbey, 793 (late 8th century)
Byzantium (from this post);
The Early Centuries [ -- to 802]
  • from Constantine the Great through Justinian to the Iconoclasm
Part II: The Apogee [802 - 1081] (corresponds with Viking Age)
  • from images restored to Manzikert
Part III: The Decline and Fall [1081 - 1453] (corresponds with Viking Age)
  • from Alexius Comnenus the the Angevin threat to the fall 

$78 Brent? Citigroup Says "Yes" -- Within Three Months -- June 4, 2019

Hope springs eternal: Citigroup sticking with target of $78-Brent.

Debt: on another note -- apparently their bankers are not too concerned -- LOL -- US producers' debt reduction drive loses urgency. From Argus:
US oil and natural gas producers continue to work toward debt reduction goals, but for many the urgency has faded amid continued cost cuts and a rise in crude prices to above where most had pegged their 2019 spending budgets.
Occidental Petroleum cannot escape growing attention on its debt after the company last month leap-frogged Chevron in a bid to acquire Anadarko.
Investors worry that the deal may have overstretched the company's balance sheet. But chief financial officer Cedric Burgher seeks to allay those fears, partly thanks to the firm's $10bn backing from investment group Berkshire Hathaway.
With divestments of $10bn-$15bn planned after the merger, Oxy predicts its debt will be less than two times its earnings before tax at a crude price of $60/bl by 2021. This rises to just over two times at $50/bl, which is still "manageable", Burgher says.
This is where we track the OXY-Anadarka-Buffett story.

May, 2019, Light Truck Sales


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May, 2019, Auto Sales


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Getting Ready For July 4th!

Random Note: US Traffic Deaths -- June 4, 2019

101 days of summer. 

Link here.


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Tesla 

TSLA traded below $180 yesterday.

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EV Sales For May, 2019

Pretty much complete.
  • Tesla Model 3 ("the affordable Tesla"): up significantly, from 10K in April to 14K in May; around 6K in early, 2019; so big change
  • Tesla Model X (the SUV): up significantly, from 1.4K in April to almost 2K in May; well above 1K in early 2019, but well below the year's high of 2.2K in March, 2019
  • Tesla Model S (numbers not reported yet): but in April at 825 vehicles well below the 2,275 vehicles reported delivered in March, 2019
  • Chevrolet Bolt EV: 1.4K vs less than 1K last month, but well below the 2.2K in March, 2019
  • Toyota Prius Prime, up nicely.
  • Nissan Leaf, up nicely.
  • Tesla not reporting yet.
  • Most others irrelevant except as bragging rights for those who own them
TSLA up 3.4% after the numbers came up; up $6; now trading at $185.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
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Boeing 737

Potential defective parts found in wings of the Boeing 737 (including some of the 737 MAX planes that are currently grounded. Link here. FAA. File under: "when it rains, it pours."

Texans Takes Their Sports Seriously -- June 4, 2019


Previously posted, May 29, 2019:
Graduate of the ISD that our granddaughters attended when the family first moved to Texas:


He is mentioned at this wiki site:  he is the son of a Bobby Witt, a former MLB pitcher. At the wiki site:
As of April 2015, Witt lives in Colleyville, Texas, with his wife and four children and is now a player agent. His son, Bobby Witt Jr., is the top ranked prospect by Perfect Game in the Class of 2019[and is committed to play college baseball at the University of Oklahoma. 
OU signee Bobby Witt Jr. was named the 2019 Gatorade National High School Baseball Player of the Year, the Gatorade Player of the Year program announced Wednesday. Witt committed to play baseball at Oklahoma in June 2017, but is a projected top-5 pick in the MLB Draft on Monday, June 3, 2019.

Now this update, June 4, 2019:


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Figure Skating

Also, at the ice rink where our middle granddaughter skates --


Peak Oil? -- GOM Production Poised To Set New Records -- Rigzone -- June 4, 2019

GOM: new records. Link here. Data points, Rystad estimates and figures:
  • 2019, average GOM, daily production, almost 2 million bopd (1.95 million bopd is their figure)
  • some months, production will "touch" two million bopd
  • 2013: GOM production averaged 1.3 million bopd
  • 2018: GOM production hit a high of 1.8 million bopd
I find it amazing that four little counties in western North Dakota are in the same ballpark as the huge GOM. North Dakota is producing about 1.2 million bopd -- within the GOM ballpark of 1.8 million bopd. Pretty amazing.

Appomattox: from the same link above -- Shell's largest floating platform in the GOM
will be key for the GOM to hit a production record
  • the company produced first oil from teh Appomattox last month (May, 2019)
    • anticipates an average peak production of 175,000 boepd
    • Rystad predicts production will plateau at 140,000 boepd
  • top producers in the GOM
    • BP
    • Equinor
    • XOM
  • a combined Chevron - Anadarko Petroleum entity took first place on the list -- Rystad predicted that company would produce 400,000 boepd -- but not to be -- Chevron lost its bid for Anadarko to OXY
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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, June 4, 2019: 7 for the month; 196 for the quarter;
  • 34804, 943, Nine Point Energy, Erickson 155-102-26-25-7H, Squires, t12/18; cum 99K 4/19; 
  • 33939, 160, Petro Harvester Operating Company, LLC, PTL2 4-28 164-92 B, Madison formation, Portal, t3/19; cum 4K 4/19;
Active rigs:

$53.126/4/201906/04/201806/04/201706/04/201606/04/2015
Active Rigs6461512581

RBN Energy: northeast gas takeaway capacity vs production in 2019.
The Northeast natural gas market turned a new leaf in 2018, when takeaway pipeline capacity to move supply out of the Marcellus/Utica producing region finally caught up to — and even began outpacing — production growth. More than 4 Bcf/d of takeaway expansions entered service in 2018. Prices at the region’s Dominion South supply hub improved relative to Henry Hub and other downstream markets. And for the first time in years, Appalachian gas producers and marketers caught a glimpse of what an unconstrained, balanced market driven by market economics (as opposed to transportation constraints) could look like. 2019 will be the first full year of operation for many of those takeaway expansions that came online in 2018. Northeast production growth flattened through the first few months of 2019, but has ticked up in the past couple of months, albeit modestly, and the slate of future takeaway expansion projects has shrunk to just a couple stalled projects. Where does that leave capacity utilization out of the region this summer, and how long will it be before production growth hits the capacity wall again? Today, we begin a series providing an update on the Northeast gas market and prospects for balancing takeaway capacity with production growth.
The Northeast gas market has come a long way since 2013, when it first began net exporting gas supply to the rest of the U.S. For years after that pivot, Marcellus/Utica producers were plagued by perpetual transportation constraints to move gas out of the region and depressed supply prices. The last five years were marked by dozens of pipeline expansions to relieve the constraints and balance oversupply conditions — primarily piecemeal modifications and reversals of legacy pipelines that were once needed to move gas into the Northeast before the Shale Era unlocked massive reserves in the Marcellus/Utica plays. But production continued to outpace those capacity additions — that is, until this past year, when some larger, long-term projects crossed the finish line.