Showing posts with label ObamaCare. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ObamaCare. Show all posts

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- December 12, 2024

Locator: 48388CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

BofA: US consumer resilience holds -- continues to increase spending. Pivoting to "services" rather than "goods." Reflection of aging population, or an aging population that has increasing net worth.

Jobless rate: drops to 8-month low; Fed still feels need to cut rates; wow!

The Swifty Economy: AMEX spending was up 50% in Toronto in the month of November when Taylor Swift performed there

  • 50% increase in AMEX spending in one month due to a 3-day event
  • Taylor Swift is her "own" economy


NYC assassin
: no one, it seems, has made the connection between American anger with the US health care system and Obama Care.

The push to end employer-provided insurance:

  • one can see where this is headed -- 100% Medicare Advantage
  • who's got the lead on this? Humana?

Cruise: is the demise of the Cruise initiative the canary in the coal mine, the coal mine being the EV fad / push. 

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Has Anyone Connected The Health Dots? -- April 27, 2019

In 2000, measles was "eradicated" from the US. Screenshots to follow.

Ten years later, ObamaCare was signed into law on March 23, 2010.

Less than a decade later, this headline: this is the worst year for measles in the US since the disease was eliminated nationally in 2000. But that's CNBC so it may be fake news. Let's fact check:
  • Buzzfeed: measles outbreaks in the US are now the worst on record since the disease was eradicated (that word again: eradicated)
  • CDC, Atlanta, Georgia: US measles cases at highest level since elimination nearly 20 years ago, according to CDC (for ESL readers: "eradication" and "elimination" are very similar in meaning)
Again, thank you Mr Orrin Hatch, R-Utah. The data suggests this has little to do with the "southern surge."

Timeline:
  • measles eradication in the US
  • that Lancet article (Lancet is the most prestigious medical journal in the world)
  • Orrin Hatch
  • ObamaCare
  • social media
  • measles epidemic in the US
Occasional-Cortex is looking better and better every day.

Cost of measles vaccine:
  • MMRII: $75
  • but for the really good stuff, ProQuad: $214.37 (the vaccine includes the "chickenpox vaccine)
  • free to inmates and illegal immigrants 
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US Expands "Catch And Release" Program

Time; Us expands program as border towns struggle with influx of migrants.

April 3, 2019.

Practically every major city from San Antonio to Phoenix is mentioned in this article. Cities with populations of 500,000 to over a million have run out of space with as few as 70 immigrants arriving on a daily basis.

The feds are now releasing as many as 1200 immigrants daily.

Einstein's definition of insanity.

Thursday, May 31, 2018

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+21 -- May 31, 2018

EU, Mexico, and Canada: anyone paying attention knows that these three are not in great position to take on Trump mana a mano.

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Did Ford Make The Correct Strategic Decision?

Gloating, and re-posting:
American auto industry: looks like Chrysler will be history by the end of the week. Parent company likely to "retire" the brand.
It will hardly be missed; Chrysler namesake is now on only two vehicles, the "ancient" 300 (a car my dad had many, many years ago) and the Pacifica. I've had three Chrysler minivans, loved them all, still driving two of them. Or at least my wife is.
Ford will be down to two automobile models (one of them the Ford Mustang, which is clearly a niche offer) and then the rest of the Ford stable: SUVs, cross-over SUVs, and pick-up trucks.
I saw a lot of nice Chevy automobiles on my recent cross-country trip. Something tells me GM may fill this US automotive niche quite nicely. I loved the Chevy Sonic I had rented from Enterprise, but still -- I found it amazing the dash on my 2012 Honda Civic was so much more modern than that of the Sonic. In addition, the switchology on the Honda Civic was so much better. Chevy was handicapped by the fact that it could not integrate its entertainment system with the car's dash data (fuel, range, etc). Tesla, however, does that very, very well.
I posted that note this morning, before the market opened. So, what did GM do today. Remember, the Dow dropped over 251 points again today. GM? Jumps almost $5, up almost 13%, now trading near $43, trending toward 52-week high. Why? Softbank’s Vision Fund is investing $2.25 billion in General Motors’ driverless car unit. GM will also put $1.1 billion into the unit, assuring funding through the planned beginning of commercialization in 2019.

By the way, GM rose almost 13% -- the very day that Trump slaps aluminum / steel tariffs on Canada. Wow. 

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GDP Now
Does anyone really believe the Atlanta Fed any more? 2Q18 GDP -- Latest forecast: 4.7 percent — May 31, 2018.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.7 percent on May 31, up from 4.0 percent on May 25.
The nowcast of second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.2 percent to 3.4 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The nowcasts of the contributions of net exports and inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.17 percentage points and 0.76 percentage points, respectively, to 0.43 percentage points and 1.00 percentage points, respectively, after yesterday's Advance Economic Indicators release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the BEA's updates of first-quarter GDP and the National Income and Product Accounts tables released yesterday and today.
Mexico: in deep, deep trouble --
  • Trump triggers tariffs on EU, Mexico & Canada 
  • oil sector appears to be ready to implode
  • but most concerning for Mexicans: a far-leftist -- think Bernie Sanders on steroids
  • Mexico's response to Trump's tariffs: will impose tariffs on table lamps, cranberries, cheese, and pork. I can't make this stuff up.
So, that I don't forget:
  • Trump tax cut stimulus: + $800 billion (CNBC analyst, May 31, 2018)
  • EU retaliation on tariffs: - $1 billion (CNBC analyst, May 31, 2018)
  • Canadian retaliation on tariffs: maybe -$5 billion 
  • Mexico retaliation on tariffs: similar to Canada
  • in other words, retaliation tariffs pale in comparison to Trump tax cut stimulus (CNBC analyst, May 31, 2018) 
  • [just between you and me, an estimate of $800 billion rounds to $1 trillion -- just saying -- yeah, as an investor, like I'm really worried about retaliatory tariffs; please don't share this comment with anyone else -- it's just between you and me; and, definitely don't take it out of context]
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ObamaCare Re-Surfaces In New Jersey

Link here. Whatever.
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Feelings

I have no idea how things are going with the North Koreans or what is being discussed, but there are days (like today -- May 31, 2018 -- Trump's tariffs) that I think our "enemies" like North Korea are more accommodating than our "allies" like Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Just saying. And I'm probably wrong. I'm just saying that some days I have those feelings. 

Saturday, January 6, 2018

NDSU Wins Championship Game; Unprecedented 6 Championships In Last 7 Years -- January 6, 2018

Link here.


NDSU wins, 17 - 13. A real nail-biter. Great game. NDSU sets record -- wins 6 championships in 7 years; never done before. Two disappointments with the coverage: the half-time report was nothing more than an ESPN commercial -- all about the Georgia-Alabama championship game Monday; and ESPN cut quickly to a college basketball game after the end of the NDSU-JMU game; home town folks won't have televised coverage of NDSU getting the trophy.

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Flashback: ObamaCare

"Open Season" -- a concept introduced by President Obama.

This is from a post several years ago, April 5, 2014. I happened across it this morning while looking for something else. It's hard to believe how fast "open season" became the norm in a free market society for buying something so important as health care insurance. Under ObamaCare Americans were told they could only buy health insurance during a three-month window every year. Can you imagine if that applied to everything we did in society?

Anyway, here's the earlier post:

ObamaCare: The End of Year-Round Enrollment

I did not know this. I thought "open season" was the rule, not the exception. It appears that prior to ObamaCare one could buy health insurance year-round. If one already had health insurance, one would renew during "open season," generally the last three months of the calendar year.

But now it appears that ObamaCare has eliminated the possibility of buying health care year-round. ObamaCare mandates purchasing health care during "open season." The AP is reporting:
Here's more fallout from the health care law: Until now, customers could walk into an insurance office or go online to buy standard health care coverage any time of year. Not anymore.
Many people who didn't sign up during the government's open enrollment period that ended Monday will soon find it difficult or impossible to get insured this year, even if they go directly to a private company and money is no object. For some it's already too late.
With limited exceptions, insurers are refusing to sell to individuals after the enrollment period for HealthCare.gov and the state marketplaces. They will lock out the young and healthy as well as the sick or injured. Those who want to switch plans also are affected. The next wide-open chance to enroll comes in November for coverage in 2015.
A couple of comments: first, who cares?

Second, we are finally starting to see some "truth-in-advertising" stories about ObamaCare in the mainstream media. This is not good news for incumbents running for re-election who voted for ObamaCare.

Third, this whole article if full of malarkey.

The "open season" is another red herring. The deadline has been extended so many times, we had a six-month open season, and even this article admits that folks who have started the process can continue, thus extending the "open season" to about seven or eight months. Reminder for low-information crowd: a typical calendar year has twelve months. 
But this is the real story: I can guarantee you that anyone who wants to buy insurance at any time will find some insurer who will be accommodating. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if some insurers will simply start the process now (April, 2014) with hopes that one's enrollment process will be complete by October, in time to receive the pre-filled voter registration form along with the insurance card.
I recently had a minor leak around the bottom of the toilet bowl which necessitated repair and replacement of the bathroom flooring. What a hoot if I had logged on to the Obama Plumbing and Voter Registration Website only to find out that one could only get one's plumbing needs resolved during "open season," i.e. three months at the end of the year.

What a great country. Obama certainly had all the right ideas for this country.

Saturday, December 30, 2017

Global Shale Reserves -- December 30, 2017; Another Win For Trump

From The Wall Street Journal, global shale reserves as estimated by the EIA:


One can see how conservative these estimates are. Some have suggested with 10% primary recovery (which now appears to be low) and 500 billion bbls original oil in place, the Bakken alone has 50 billion bbls recoverable shale oil. Yes, I know. Don't get me started.

Also: "The numbers from the rather dated US Energy Information Administration-commissioned study are estimates of technically recoverable RESOURCES, NOT RESERVES. One might expect a financial paper to know the difference.." -- Comment at the linked article.

The earliest the Russians will start seeing significant shale oil production is the mid-2020's according to the linked article, at which time it will account for about 2.5% of Russian crude oil production.

Bottom line: a story well ahead of its headlights.

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ObamaCare: Another Win For Trump

From The Wall Street Journal today:
A federal judge in Washington ruled the Trump administration can make sharp cuts to subsidies Medicare pays some hospitals for pharmaceuticals, a blow to the American Hospital Association and others fighting in court and Congress to halt the reductions.
The hospital association and two other health-care trade groups had filed a lawsuit against the Department of Health and Human Services in an attempt to stop the cuts. But U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras on Friday dismissed the case, saying the plaintiffs cannot sue before exhausting other avenues to challenge the cuts, as required by law. The other trade-group plaintiffs were the Association of American Medical Colleges and America’s Essential Hospitals.
Judge Contreras’s ruling means Medicare can proceed with the cuts, scheduled to start Jan. 1. The administration estimates the cuts will reduce annual drug spending by Medicare and beneficiaries—who pick up some of the cost of certain drugs—by about $1.6 billion.
Flat out, this is a win for patients,” said Rena Conti, a University of Chicago associate professor who studies health policy.

Saturday, December 23, 2017

The Witch Is Dead -- December 23, 2017

Going biking. Christmas Eve eve. Heavy, heavy traffic. Very dark. Should be a sporting ride.

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My, How Quickly Things Change In Washingon

From don't mess with taxes.com
IRS goes against Trump's "order. IRS backs off Trump's Obamacare order, will enforce ACA coverage reporting rule.What's going on with the Affordable Care Act (ACA)? It depends on where you're looking for answers.

Federal lawmakers remain in a quandary over how to deal with the ACA, or as it's known (for now) Obamacare.

The Internal Revenue Service, however, made it clear this week that it plans to follow the health care law's reporting requirements as long as they are officially on the books.

That's a reversal of a prior IRS position.

However, given the confusion with the law, both under its namesake president and since Donald J. Trump moved into the Oval Office, the tax agency's position change isn't surprising.
I find it amazing that a government agency that works directly for the executive branch ignores the President of the United States. Tell me again about draining the swamp. Tell me again there's no "deep state." But I digress.

Flash forward two-and-a-half months: Congress easily passes and president wastes no time signing the biggest tax cut in the history of the US which, among a few other things, specifically states that, "no, the IRS won't enforce the individual mandate."

Ding, dong, The witch is dead.

ObamaCare. Effectively. Repealed. RIP.

The Wizard of Oz


Wednesday, December 20, 2017

"If You Can't Beat 'Em, Join 'Em" -- December 20, 2017; ATT To Pay "Every" Employee A $1,000 Special Bonus Because The Tax Bill Passed

Saudi Arabia reportedly looking at US shale assets to diversity Aramco. Link here. And, here, at The Wall Street Journal.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly looking at natural-gas assets in Texas shale basins and is in talks with a U.S. liquefied natgas producer as it looks to break into U.S. shale.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly looking at natural-gas assets in Texas shale basins and is in talks with a U.S. liquefied natgas producer as it looks to break into U.S. shale.

State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco is in early negotiations with Tellurian to buy a stake or some of its natural gas. The report also said Armaco has asked about assets in the Permian and Eagle Ford shale formations.

If the company starts production in the U.S., it would be the first time it had any output from outside the kingdom. It also would come after three years of struggles to cool shale's growth, which has upended markets that Saudi Arabia once swayed as the swing producer.

But the kingdom's domestic energy needs may be prompting an embrace of its U.S. rivals. Investing in shale would give Saudi Arabia access to the U.S. industry's ability to quickly start and stop production projects and use that knowledge back at home.

"Saudi Arabia has a lot of shale, a lot of tight gas," said Jim Krane, an energy analyst at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. "Aramco needs to get to the gas because Saudi Arabia is very short on natural gas. The only way to get to it without imports is to tap into shale."

Saudi Aramco won't be the first Middle Eastern country to invest in U.S. shale; the UAE's Mubadala sovereign fund has invested in a private equity firm in U.S. shale, the report said.
Much, much more at the linked article.

The linked WSJ article is the better of the two articles:
Using hydraulic fracturing techniques to unlock oil and gas from shale formations, the U.S. has become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas combined and is starting to export its energy abundance. Saudi oil shipments—once the dominant source of crude for America—in September hit their lowest levels to the U.S. in 30 years.
“From a historical standpoint, it’s striking,” said Jason Bordoff, director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. It is “a reminder of how dramatic the impact of the shale revolution has been,” he said.
The changes have helped accelerate a transformation in Saudi society orchestrated by 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
I think residents of New York state need to be asking their governor why US shale looks so good to Saudi Arabia and their state government bans fracking. I think the adage, "cut off your nose to spite your face" fits in this particularly circumstance.

By the way: I wonder if Jane Nielson is still following the Bakken?

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The Road To Germany 
(Re-Posting From October 26, 2017)

One could devote a whole blog to Germany's energy problems. A reader has sent me a number of links to various articles showing how bad things really are (and getting worse) in Germany. I read a fair amount of material on Germany's energy challenges late last night. But this data point jumped out at me, buried in a very technical journal touting the success Germany is having with its renewable energy program (wink, wink):

About 90% of hard coal was imported, in comparison with 98% import dependence for oil and 90% for natural gas.
Imagine if Hillary had been elected, and then served two full terms, and banned fracking as she promised during her campaign, and put a lot of miners out of work, as she also promised -- what would the US look like if US energy needs were those of Germany? What would the US look like if the US imported 98% of its oil, 90% of its natural gas, 90% of its hard coal?

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The Magnitude of the GOP Tax Bill

A "never Trumper" sent me an e-mail:
Still hard for me to wrap my head around the fact that either party can write major legislation in secret with no input from the other party. Yes, I know the democrats do this, too, but it just doesn’t seem right.
My "not-ready-for-prime-time" reply:
You have no idea how many times the GOP asked the Democrats to come on board, in general.
Specifically, they targeted six Democratic senators up for re-election but those Democratic senators refused to come to the meetings. Afraid of Schumer.
One of the targeted individuals was Heidi Heitkamp of ND -- this was a huge bill for all those North Dakota millionaires due to oil and she refused to get involved. I talked about that in my blog. She had an opportunity to get her own chapter in "Profiles in Courage" to do what was good for North Dakota, but she was afraid of Schumer.
Just after that exchange, I happened to hear a five-minute interview with Paul Ryan on the Rush Limbaugh radio show. This is what stood out:
  • "never-Trumpers" will listen to Rachel Maddow's "take" on the tax bill but these same "never-Trumpers" won't listen to the originators of the bill (e.g., Paul Ryan) who know it best or read the tax bill for themselves;
  • this is a huge bill, much bigger than anyone can imagine -- can you imagine if your tax bill went from 35% to 21% overnight? think about that;
  • the average corporate tax rate in the industrialized world is 21.5% which means that some countries have rates lower than 21% -- but the US is now at the average corporate tax rate in the industrialized world; companies will no longer re-locate overseas simply to take advantage of lower tax rates
  • the tax cut bill is very much unlike ObamaCare which was a) a huge drag on the economy; b) seen as a "train wreck" by Dems who actually voted for it; c) a huge tax on every American; d) a huge disruptor of the American health sector; and,which was e) taking America down the road to socialism (vis-a-vis Canada, the EU, Russia)
  • the tax cut bill is completely different: as far as I can tell, no one will be sending more money to Washington, DC; it opens up ANWR (Alaska) for drilling; it pretty much ends ObamaCare as we know it
  • I have no idea why anyone is upset about the corporate tax rate cut; DC has a spending problem, not a revenue problem 
  • Congress and senators listened to the public; they got rid of that crazy, crazy FIFO idea
  • Paul Ryan has been working on this bill for decades; folks who suggest this was rushed are the same folks who would suggest the Beatles were an overnight sensation; the Beatles worked their asses off from 1957 to 1962 in clubs in Germany and England; their first album was not recorded until 1963
  • a bill that has been worked on for decades and is several hundred pages long is going to have a lot in it of which none of us are even aware (by the way, look up the history of the IRA)
  • much of it is too technical for any of us to understand but "bean-counters in green visors in the back offices" will spend the next several months figuring it out; 
  • the Affordable Care Act quickly became known as ObamaCare; even its #1 apologist knew that it was not affordable; over time ObamaCare was seen as a disparaging term for the healthcare program; so far, the alt-left and "never-Trumpers" have not been able to come up with a disparaging name for this bill (though, over time, they may succeed); "Tax Cut Bill For Millionaires" does not have the snappy soundbite that ObamaCare has; "Trumponomics" -- currently favored by CNBC won't last; Reaganomics  worked; "Trumponomics" won't
  • as I noted above, Heidi Heitkamp did North Dakota no favors by not trying to get something in this bill that would have helped her state; anyone can offer amendments; if she thought this bill was going to pass, she should have gotten something for her state (having said that, North Dakota did have a strong US senator and he certainly watched out for our interests); by stepping out from under the Schumer shadow she could have had her own chapter in Profiles in Courage
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One-Two Punch

The first punch: see the short note on Germany's energy needs above.

The second punch: America's 21% corporate tax rate.

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ATT Will Pay "Every" Employee A $1,000 Special Bonus
 -- Simply Because The Tax Bill Passed

Link here:
Today, Congress approved legislation representing the first comprehensive tax reform in a generation. The President is expected to sign the bill in the coming days.
Once tax reform is signed into law, AT&T* plans to invest an additional $1 billion in the United States in 2018 and pay a special $1,000 bonus to more than 200,000 AT&T U.S. employees — all union-represented, non-management and front-line managers. If the President signs the bill before Christmas, employees will receive the bonus over the holidays.
“Congress, working closely with the President, took a monumental step to bring taxes paid by U.S. businesses in line with the rest of the industrialized world,” said Randall Stephenson, AT&T chairman and CEO. “This tax reform will drive economic growth and create good-paying jobs. In fact, we will increase our U.S. investment and pay a special bonus to our U.S. employees.”
You can bet they are going to earn a lot more just from all the overtime pay that comes with $1 billion in CAPEX -- and the bonus, if paid in 2018, will be at a lower tax rate than if it is paid this year.

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Others

Fifth Third Bank: will raise minimum hourly wage to $15; will distribute a $1,000 special bonus to employees.

Wells Fargo: will raise minimum hourly wage to $1/hour. No mention of any bonus. Says hourly rate will increase once the tax bill is signed.

Comcast: fourth company to announce. Will give employees a $1,000 bonus.

Oksol: announces that in addition to the three trips to Flathead Lake every year, he will now take four cross-country trips each year because the GOP tax bill passed. My first trip will be to Albuquerque, NM. Details pending.

Others overnight: Boeing, but less specific. 

Thursday, September 28, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, Part 2 -- September 28, 2017 -- The Trump Rally Broadens; ObamaCare, Bye, Bye? Nope, Buy, Buy; Health Insurer Pulls Out Of North Dakota -- Cites Uncertainty Of Government Bailout

Hitting new records:
  • Russell 2000 (small cap) -- this is huge -- up until today, this was the one major indice that had not set new records
  • S&P 500 -- barely, but it closed at a new high today
  • Dow Transportations -- also set a new high; Dow Theory comes to mind
Others:
  • Dow 30: not a new high, but a good day
  • NASDAQ: not a new high, but a good day
  • "Yields" are up.
WTI: solid move down today -- helps refiners.

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Bye, Bye? Nope, Buy, Buy

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. But having said that ...

I've said this repeatedly, so instead of writing de novo, I will simply cut and paste from an earlier post:
Longest running reality show/soap opera continues. These summer re-runs are getting a bit boring. No real need to post / link the most recent update. I will simply copy/paste what I wrote September 19, 2017.
Bye-bye? Nope, buy-buy. CNBC contributor had it exactly right today -- whether GOP repeals ObamaCare or whether it doesn't, investing in US health care companies is a no-brainer. Bottom line for the contributor regarding health care investments: buy-buy. Buy if ObamaCare is "repealed" (wink, wink); buy if ObamaCare survives a GOP vote to repeal. I've said the same thing for months.
For investors: thank Paul Rand and John McCain for scuttling ObamaCare Lite. Rand and McCain insure that the big insurance companies will be the big winners, and for investors, that's good news.
So, what's new?

Senator Schumer says the Senate is very, very close to bailing out the major, publicly held insurance companies. The story is here.  ObamaCare, bye, bye? Nope, buy, buy.

By the way, from CNBC:
  • regional insurer Medica is pulling out of the North Dakota's health exchange for 2018 at the last minute
  • state regulators denied the health insurer's request for a rate increase to account for uncertainty over funding for Obamacare cost-reduction subsidies
  • Wednesday was the deadline for insurers to commit to offering plans on the exchanges for 2018
  • senators Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray say they will try to revive their bipartisan effort to approve funding for CSRs and stabilize the health insurance exchanges for the next two years

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

The Political Page, T+215 -- The Train Has Come Off The Tracks -- August 23, 2017

Max called it a train wreck, even though he voted for it, and then promptly left the US Senate. We've been watching that train wreck in slow motion. The Republican-led US House and US Senate who sent up "repeal and replace" bills on a regular basis to a Democratic president were unable to replicate those actions when they had a president who promised to sign any such bill to "repeal" ObamaCare.

The result?

The train has come off the tracks.

The most recent state that has taken action to save some passengers is Iowa. From The Wall Street Journal:
Iowa asked for federal permission to alter major provisions of the Affordable Care Act next year, a proposal that will be closely watched by officials in other states who hope to rewrite parts of the health law as Republican efforts to do so in Congress have stalled.
Iowa’s plan, which state officials said they are already preparing to implement pending federal approval, would go further than proposals that other states have made so far to revamp the health law’s rules. The Iowa setup would offer just one type of insurance plan in the individual market and reshape the subsidies that help people buy coverage, among other changes.
State officials, who are formally filing for federal approval under a special waiver setup allowed by the ACA, argue they need to repair an exchange market that is expected to be down to just one insurer that has requested sharp rate increases for 2018.
States including Idaho, Minnesota and Oregon have submitted applications for less-sweeping waivers that aim to blunt insurers’ expense for covering the claims of people with costly health conditions.
In total, 13 states have passed laws authorizing state officials to craft ACA waiver requests, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. At least six others are considering such legislation.
“The most urgent thing for states is to stabilize the markets,” said Rosemarie Day, a health strategist and former chief operating officer of the Massachusetts exchange. But the waiver process also “opens the door to trying to accomplish some things Republicans are trying to do,” like limiting benefits currently required under the ACA. “This could be a backdoor way.”
OMG, a backdoor way. Well, if Schumer and McCain are blocking the front door ... 
Some states, such as Oklahoma, have signaled they intend to seek waivers that, like Iowa’s, could make big changes to the ACA. If those proposals proceed and are granted by the Trump administration, the upshot could eventually be a patchwork of different insurance setups across the country. However, the ACA includes firm conditions that such waivers must meet, including that coverage must be as affordable and comprehensive as it is under the federal law’s setup.
"Must be as affordable...." Don't make me laugh. That's an easy bar to meet. And as comprehensive as the federal law -- look at the bronze plans -- about the only thing they guarantee is family planning and end-of-life counseling, also easy bars to jump.
Iowa Insurance Commissioner Doug Ommen, a Republican, said the state has worked with the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and that it hoped to get its new system up and running before individual-plan enrollment kicks off in November.
“We’re doing everything that’s needed to start it up as though we already had a yes,” he said. Iowa is also asking federal officials to move faster than the 180-day waiver review timeline designated by the ACA.
The founding fathers, even if some were slaveholders, had great sense when it came to states' rights.

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Fox Business 

Provides background to the two September, 2017, deadlines

Thursday, August 3, 2017

The Political Page, T+195 -- August 3, 2017

Updates

August 17, 2017: source -- http://joannenova.com.au/2017/08/australia-denmark-germany-vie-to-win-highest-global-electricity-cost-its-the-nobel-price-prize/.



Later, 3:44 p.m. Central Time: see comments. For Australian pricing, see http://aemo.com.au/. I just looked -- yes, the pricing is insane. Check the spot price in about 45 minutes -- about 4:30 p.m. Central Time to get an idea. Right now, South Australia spot price is about $AUS 130/MWh, compared to the outrageous price of $60/MWh right now in New England. $1AUS = 0.8 USD. So, I assume AUSD $130/MWh works out to about 83 USD.

Later, 3:41 p.m. Central Time: see comments. Connecticut proposing "conservation fee" (aka, a new tax) on heating oil for those who use heating oil to heat their homes.

Original Post

If I did not blog, I would not have known this: the highest electric rates in the world are in Denmark.

For new plants/farms:
  • coal/natural gas: $1 million/MW or less
  • wind, on-shore: $3 million/MW
  • wind, off-shore: $5 million/MW
  • solar: $6 million/MW
Who has a lot of off-shore wind? Denmark.

Which country has the highest electric rates? Oh, I already noted that.

Now this: South Australia now has the highest electric rates in the world. Absolutely crazy; Australia is energy-rich; why in the world did it get sucked into this fad? Musk Melon said he could solve Australia's problem in less than 100 days. From the linked source:
As of July 1, 2017, electricity prices in the state of South Australia are the highest in the world, exceeding Denmark’s due to price increases of between 15.3 and 19.9 percent by its three major electric utilities.
In nearby New South Wales the problem is not much better, with more than 60,000 households at risk of having their power cut off because they cannot afford the bills.

Further, South Australia is faced with the possibility of brownouts and blackouts due to the intermittency of wind power. During a power outage last September, electricity prices rose to 200 cents per kilowatt-hour—about 20 times higher than the average U.S. electricity price. The blackout, which impacted 1.7 million people, started when a wind farm suddenly stopped providing 200 megawatts of power and destabilized the grid. Despite the blackout and high prices, South Australia plans to invest another $100 million in renewable energy.

South Australia’s reliance on wind power makes large blackouts more likely because the electricity generated is intermittent and does not coincide with the times of day when power is needed most. Intermittent renewable energy, wind and solar power, represent 53 percent of South Australia’s electricity mix. What’s more, the state closed its last coal-fired power station, thereby providing less back-up power during peak demand.
The shut down of the coal-fired generator at Port Augusta last year destroyed a supply of affordable energy for the state’s households and businesses.

Major businesses in South Australia have threatened to suspend operations entirely until the electricity price is lowered and some smaller operations have already closed.
There is so much more at the link, but this is a good start.

EDI.

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Aetna Reports Great Earnings -- Pulling Out Of ObamaCare

Huge interview with the Aetna CEO on CNBC. Something tells me the mainstream media is starting to see the failure of ObamaCare.

Aetna will pull out of ObamaCare in all states by 2018.

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

The Political Page, T+159 -- June 28, 2017

Irrelevant. The fact that the Dow 30 surges 150 points in an already over-extended market tells me all I need to know about the relevancy of the US Senate; the stalled health care bill; and, the much-talked-about-seldom-seen tax reform bill: all irrelevant.

Fake News settles: in another win for "truth and honesty," ABC has settled with a South Dakota meat producer over an inflammatory, libelous, and, ultimately, a fake news story. The suit was for $1.9 billion. The terms of the settlement not disclosed but something tells me ABC was not prepared to lose $2 billion. LOL. 

Say what: Just the other day the mainstream press wrote that this year's grain harvest will not be as good as previous years because of global warming. Today. EIA says that ethanol capacity has actually increased year-over-year, apparently not concerned about corn production. One wonders how much grain was taken out of production so farmers could plant grass (corn). Just saying. From the EIA today:
Fuel ethanol production capacity in the United States reached 15.5 billion gallons per year, or 1.01 million barrels per day (b/d), at the beginning of 2017.
Total capacity of operable ethanol plants increased by about 4%—or by more than 600 million gallons per year—between January 2016 and January 2017…Of the top 13 fuel ethanol-producing states, 12 are located in the Midwest. The top three states—Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois—contain more than half of the nation’s total ethanol production capacity. --- EIA
Octane capacity. Based on a story yesterday, ethanol is NOT the concern. Rather, octane is the concern going forward; there could be a shortage sometime in the out years. I hope farmers start planting more octane.

Global warming: Algore brought inconvenient truths about global warming to the American public back in the early 1990s. Inquiring minds want to know when record low temperatures were set in the US by state
  • Alabama, 1996
  • Illinois, 1999
  • Indiana, 1994
  • Iowa, 1996
  • Kentucky, 1994
  • Maine, 2009
  • Minnesota, 1996
  • Wisconsin, 1996
  • all records, I do believe, were set in the post-industrial age.
Record hot temperatures? Almost all records were set before 1994.

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ObamaCare

Discussions about ObamaCare take place in two different arenas. One arena is the political arena, the argument between states' rights and national health service. The second arena is in the money arena. In the "money" arena, there are three legs to this three-legged stool: a) taxes on medical devices; b) corporate mandate; and, c) the individual mandate. But what does the big round seat that sits on the three legs represent? Medicaid. Right now, my hunch is that the US congress and US Senate could get together on the three legs, but the big obstacle is where one's butt sits -- Medicaid.

From Ballotpedia:
Between fiscal years 2014 and 2015, total government spending in Illinois increased by approximately $10.8 billion—from $58.6 billion in fiscal year 2014 to an estimated $69.4 billion in 2015. This represents a 15.52-percent increase.
  • in Illinois in fiscal year 2014, 51.9 percent of total tax revenues came from income taxes
  • sales taxes and gross receipts accounted for 40.2 percent of total state tax collections.
  • education accounted for 18.7 percent of state expenditures in fiscal year 2015, 
  • Medicaid accounted for a whopping 26%, almost 40% more than that spend on education
Illinois cannot afford a cut in US federal Medicaid support. Period. Dot.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

The Literature Page -- Nothing About The Bakken -- June 22, 2017

ObamaCare

The three-legged stool: As the health care debate picks up again, keep this in mind: ObamaCare has only three legs:
  • employer mandates
  • individual mandates
  • medical device taxes
My betting:
  • elimination of the medical device tax: 99% likelihood these taxes will be eliminated
  • individual mandates: 95% likelihood these taxes will be eliminated; if not eliminated, by executive order President Trump will direct Treasury (IRS) to not take action against any individual who does not comply
  • employer mandates: 95% likelihood the employer mandates will not be eliminated, but a) the mandates will be "watered down"; and, b) penalties for not complying will be lessened
Other issues:
  • Medicare: absolutely nothing in any current health care debate about Medicare (seniors have a huge voting bloc)
  • Medicaid: states will be given relief -- a compromise to get the bill passed
Political note:
  • there will no "repeal" of ObamaCare -- this is the gift that keeps on giving
  • this will simply be a continuation of the process

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MSG

From Super Sushi Ramen Express: One Family's Journey Through the Belly of Japan, Michael Booth, c. 2009, 2016, chapter 9: "MSG: An Apology"
  • "Chinese Restaurant Syndrome": phrase coined in a 1968 letter to The New England Journal of Medicine
  • world's largest producer of MSG: Ajinomoto, a Japanese company; "ajinomoto" - "essence of taste"
  • company founded by Professor Kikunae Ikeda; discovered MSG in 1908
  • konbu seaweed: natural source of the particularly delicious amino acid called glutamate
  • glutamate - nature - seaweed - MSG - umami
  • MSG played an important role in adding flavor and mouth-feel to processed foods when these were lost during their industrial preservation
  • critics allege: a few years ago Ajinomoto made the hole in the top of the MSG shaker larger so that people would use more
  • from transcript of interview recorded with the company's scientific affairs spokeswoman
    • MSG: no more processed than salt or sugar; comes from konbu, seaweed
    • umami receptor discovered in 2000 (joined the other four taste receptors)
    • made the hole in the shaker larger about 30 years ago; reason? steam from the soup was clogging up the smaller hole
  • now the rest of the story
  • US FDA, UN, and EU: have all given MSG the "all clear"
  • merely a man-made glutamic acid produced by fermenting carbohydrates and sugars
  • umami and MSG are inextricably linked but are by no means the same thing
  • umami: usually referred to as the fifth taste, after salty, sweet, bitter, and sour
  • some neurologists now claim there are fifty or more tastes
  • Ikeda: noted something common in the complicated taste of asparagus, tomatoes, cheese, and meat; this taste is quite peculiar and cannot be classed under any of the other well-defined four taste qualities
  • cheese -- parmesan in particular -- and tomatoes have a powerful umami flavor (quick, name the primary components of pizza; yes, cheese and tomatoes, LOL)
  • other foods with strong umami component: air-dried ham, veal stock and Worcestershire sauce
  • mother's milk is far richer in umami than cow's milk
  • the crust on grilled meat: high in umami flavor
  • savory and meaty: words most often used to describe umami
  • Japanese most often use words delicious and tasty for umami
  • evolutionary explanations
  • sweet: tells you sugar is present; therefore an energy-giver
  • salt: a bodily requirement
  • bitter and sour: useful as warnings of toxins or unripeness (or spoilage)
  • so why umami? lets you know the food contains glutamic acid
  • glutamine indicates that protein is in the food; protein is essential to our survival, and so it makes sense that we identify something as food
  • unlike salt or sugar, there are no obvious go-to foods to get your hit
  • glutamine: supports other flavors; add body; enhances other flavors
  • umami is an indicator of ripeness and therefore tells us when vegetables and fruits are at their most nutritious
  • tomatoes are at their most umami-ish when they are at the peak of ripeness
  • konbu (seaweed) has more glutamate than any other foodstuff on earth
  • #1 food associated with Japanese umami: miso soup
  • katsuobushi, the other main base ingredient of the dashi used to make miso soup (along with water)
  • shiitake mushrooms: also extremely rich in guanylate and are often added to miso soup as well
  • miso soup: a triple whammy -- konbu, katsuobushi, shiitake
  • the Italians were particularly good at generating this synergistic umami effect (think pizza)
  • parmesan: second-highest amount of glutamate of all common foodstuffs
  • French: veal stock
  • British: Marmite, or yeast extract
  • health benefits to umami -- you will have to get the book to learn about that; I need to move on
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The Literary Page

One of my favorite posts this past year was not about the Bakken (say what?). It was about color.
Crayola will be phasing out "dandelion yellow" this year. I bought several 24-count Crayola boxes as an investment since these will probably become priceless once "dandelion yellow" is completely phased out.

At the time of the announcement, Crayola did not say what color was going to replace "dandelion yellow." They have now made the announcement that it will be shade of blue but the actual color has not yet been named.

There were a flurry of stories yesterday about this new blue crayon. From USA Today: Crayola's newest crayon color is a shade of blue that was just discovered.
A brilliant blue color, discovered accidentally by Oregon State University chemists, will soon be the newest addition to Crayola’s box.

The crayon color, inspired by the blue pigment known as “YInMn” blue," is the replacement for the recently retired Dandelion crayon. The vibrant blue was discovered by Oregon State University chemists who were heating up chemicals in hopes of finding new materials that could be used in electronics. In what the university calls a "serendipitous discovery," one of the chemical mixes came out of the furnace a striking blue. The "YInMn” moniker comes from the elements that comprise it: yttrium, indium, manganese and oxygen.

“With the discovery of YInMn brand new pigment, who other than Crayola would be best to bring it to life?” said Leena Vadaketh, Crayola’s VP of Research & Development, North America.
Possibly / probably because of that story, I was attracted to this book at the Grapevine library today: Color: A Natural History of the Palette, Victoria Finlay, c. 2002. Again, a British author; I've always argued that writers from the UK (to include Ireland and Scotland) are consistently very, very good.

Perhaps more later, but I have to get back on my bike to get home in time to take Sophia swimming.

Good luck to all.

Monday, June 12, 2017

Death Spiral: Add Iowa To Kentucky -- June 12, 2017

On June 11, 2017, WSJ reported that Kentucky was "killing" ObamaCare.

Today, another state cries "uncle." Or better said, "cries for help from Uncle."

Bloomberg reports: Iowa asks US for ObamaCare help facing "collapse" of market. The lede:
Facing what it called a “collapse” of its Obamacare market next year, Iowa is asking the Trump administration to let it reallocate millions of dollars and create a stopgap program that would provide health insurance options for 72,000 Iowans covered by the Affordable Care Act.
Under the proposal made public on Monday, the state would use $352 million in federal money to provide backup funding for insurers and overhaul Obamacare’s subsidies for consumers next year
The state would also create a single standardized plan that insurers would offer.
So many story lines. 

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

It Never Quits -- June 6, 2017

Platts: US crude #oil production will, for first time in nearly 50 years, climb to 10 mil b/d by March 2018 -- US EIA. The previous record was 9.6 million bopd in 1970.

Priceless! What a doofus!

EIA: global oil oversupply could return in 2018.  Well, duh.

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Homer Simpson

We now know what happened to British Airways when the entire system went down for 72 hours.

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Ohio's Out
From The Washington Post:
One of the nation’s biggest health insurers says it will not return to Ohio’s public insurance exchanges next year, a decision that could open more holes in the Affordable Care Act’s increasingly thin system for helping people buy coverage.
The move announced Tuesday by Anthem Inc. could leave shoppers in 20 counties without an option for buying individual coverage on the exchange unless another insurer steps in, according to data compiled by The Associated Press and the consulting firm Avalere.

Friday, March 31, 2017

The Political Page, T+69 -- March 31, 2017

Updates

April 4, 2017: Knoxville could be first US city where ObamaCare fails. CNN reports that Humana, the only insurer left on the Affordable Care exchange in the Knoxville area, is set to exit the market in 2018.

Original Post
 
Penal shock! Maybe it's just me but I find it amazing/striking/depressing/surprising (all of the above) that more than 20% of federal prisoners are non-citizens.  Link here.

Health Shock! ObamaCare stalwart Anthem seen likely to retreat for 2018. Data points from Bloombergsupports Trump's narrative -- Bloomberg:
  • Anthem likely to "pull back"
  • Anthem is "leaning toward exiting a high percentage of the 144 rating regions in which it currently participates"
  • Anthem was one of the few big insurers that stuck with ACA
  • UnitedHealth Group and Aetna Inc. have already exited most states
  • Humana planning to stop offering individual ACA plans entirely for 2018
Surrendering! Fox Business News hypes fight between Trump and the GOP faction that killed the Ryan-TrumpCare bill. Spokesman for the latter appears to have gotten the message. Says new bill will be passed before Easter. If that happens, speaks volumes about presidential tweets.

ND Budget. UND may cut women's hockey, and both men's and women's swimming programs in response to "state's bleak financial picture." I think Rob Port over at SayAnythingBlog will discuss this at length. It's only a matter of time before the state legislature taps the untappable Legacy Fund.

Legacy Fund. Through March, 2017, total deposits to the Legacy Fund were $3,833,534,676. Deposits to the fund do not equal value of assets in the Legacy Fund. According to the state's annual budget report released June 30, 2016, data points for the Legacy Fund (and this is why the fund's investment strategy is not talked about much):
  • fair value: $3,809,485,184
  • rates of return (for fiscal year ending 6/30):
    • 2016: 1.06%
    • 2015: 3.31%
    • 2014: 6.64%
    • 2013: 1.15%
    • 2012: --

Friday, March 17, 2017

The Political Page, T+56 -- March 17, 2017

Dissing Obama, backing Trump: EU overwhelmingly defeats proposal to ban oil exploration in the Arctic. If the US and the EU banned exploration of oil in the Arctic, that would leave the Arctic for Russia/Putin. Is anyone paying attention?

"Icy" water exploration: Norway plans as many as 12 oil and gas projects this year.

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Health Care Insurance in Tennessee: 
Only One Insurer In Half-The-State; No Insurer In Rest Of State 
-- President Trump -- live television -- 9:33 a.m. Central Time

Fact check. From ObamaCare healthcare exchange in Tennessee.

2017 rates and carriers

Four carriers offer exchange plans in 2016, but UnitedHealthcare is exiting the exchange at the end of 2016. That leaves three carriers offering plans in the exchange for 2017, but Blue Cross Blue Shield of Tennessee is no longer offering coverage in the metro areas of Knoxville, Nashville, and Memphis, which are the three largest metropolitan areas in the state.
BCBST is not offering individual market plans (on or off-exchange) in 30 counties in those metro areas in 2017, although by remaining in some areas of the state, they’ve avoided a full market exit and left the door open for a possible return to state-wide coverage in 2018.
For 2017 coverage, BCBSTN will not pay broker commissions for exchange enrollments in the Tennessee counties where they will continue to offer plans, which means there will be fewer enrollment assisters available to help consumers.
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Tennessee had the lion’s share of the exchange market in 2016, covering almost 69 percent of the enrollees. The carrier says that from 2014 to 2016, they expect to incur half a billion dollars in individual market losses. And although they’ve said they’ll consider re-entering the exchange statewide in 2018 or later, the market would have to stabilize first.
Because of BCBST’s exit from the three metropolitan areas, approximately 52,000 people in Nashville, 31,000 people in Knoxville, and 29,000 in Memphis must switch to a different plan for 2017 (the exchange will map them to a new plan via auto re-enrollment if they don’t pick their own).
In 2016, United and BCBST both offered plans state-wide in Tennessee. United is exiting altogether, and BCBST is leaving the metropolitan areas. As a result, residents in 73 of Tennessee’s 95 counties will only have one carrier option in the exchange.

Monday, March 13, 2017

Could The GOP Come Out Looking Good With Regard To ObamaCare -- The Political Page, T+52 -- March 13, 2017

Declare victory and shut down Congress for all of April, instead of staying in session just eight days as it is.

Fact: everyone knows ObamaCare will die one way or the other. Some advocate doing nothing and letting ObamaCare simply die on its own.

Alt-left: Pelosi, Schumer, et al think they are in a win-win situation. If ObamaCare implodes and the GOP has done nothing to prevent the debacle, the GOP will be blamed. If GOP assumes the mantle of US healthcare, by definition the GOP has lost.

It's all about the narrative: the GOP should simply say that too many folks -- including the "Deep State" and the mainstream media love ObamaCare so the GOP will leave it alone. Declare victory and move on. Continue to call US healthcare ObamaCare and it will be the gift that keeps on giving. The only ones reminding us of the Trump/GOP pledge to "repeal and replace" will be the alt-left media (which will blame Trump/GOP regardless) and the randites. [The randites are not to be confused with the Ronettes.]

Fallout: the fallout of "declaring victory, moving on" can hardly be any worse than stepping into this pile of manure.

Walking In The Rain, The Ronettes

Monday, January 16, 2017

American Apparel Begins Laying Off 2,400 Workers In Southern California -- January 16, 2017

The California Page

From The Los Angeles Times:
  • final chapter as America's largest garment maker
  • the company has about 3,500 factor works in southern California
  • Canadian clothing maker Gildan Activewear, at auction, won the right to buy the American Apparel brand and some manufacturing equipment; it will not assume AA's leases on its factories
  • AA's 110 stores and website will remain open until at least April
  • Gildan Activewear has yet to decide where it will make AA goods; most of its hubs are in Central America and the Caribbean
Let's see if Trump tweets.

This goes all the way back to Ross Perot, doesn't it? 1992. Pretty prescient.

And all this time we have been focused on global warming.

*******************************
California's Deficit Is Back

From The Los Angeles Times:
Less than four years after declaring California’s budget balanced for the foreseeable future, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday said the state is projected to run a $1.6-billion deficit by next summer — a noticeable shift in the state’s fiscal stability that could worsen under federal spending cuts championed by President-elect Donald Trump.

“The trajectory of revenue growth is declining,” Brown said in unveiling his $179.5-billion plan for the fiscal year that begins in July.
The bullet train will still be funded; not sure about K-12 education.

California Dreamin', Mamas and Papas

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Not To Worry

California governor proposes 42% gasoline tax hike to bail out CALPERS.  No major mainstream media outlet reported this; it was reported over a 3-day weekeknd.
Gov. Brown’s willingness to try raising gasoline taxes by 17 cents a gallon, and on vehicle registration fees by $65, is a sign of the insolvency risk from the exploding cost of California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) public  pensions.
Brown’s draft 2017-2018 budget already includes a $524 million increase for the public pension contribution. That amounts to an 11 percent increase over this year’s $5.3 billion cost.
The CalPERS contribution increase would have actually been another $516 million more next year, but the world’s biggest pubic pension is allowing the State of California to “smooth” the higher pension funding cost by reducing its projected investment return expectation from 7.5 percent to 7 percent. But that smoothing will lock California into about a $524 million CalPERS contribution increase for each of the next four years.
And all this time we've been focused on the "never-ending" drought (it's over) and global warming.

By the way, much more at the link. Much more than David Muir over at ABC News would ever tell you.

**************************
31 States Bought Into This Including California

Medicaid provides health insurance for lower income folks. Cost is shared between US government and the states.

States historically have been given great latitude in determining who is eligible for Medicaid. However, under ObamaCare, the federal government determined eligibility. States, through a court decision, are not required to accept Medicaid expansion under ObamaCare.

Thirty-one states did accept this expansion and have greatly expanded Medicaid enrollment under ObamaCare.



If ObamaCare is repealed, the states are left holding the bag with the greatly increased enrollment. At least that's how I understand it. But it's probably more complicated than that. From NBC:
States such as California, New Jersey, Kentucky and Arkansas, which have expanded their Medicaid programs, have seen sharp decreases in their uninsured rates. States that didn't expand Medicaid, such as Texas, Florida and Virginia, did not experience as much of a drop in the number of people without health insurance. So far, 31 states and the District of Columbia have expanded their Medicaid programs under the ACA to cover adults who earn up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level — or $16,394 per year. 
By the way, remember that vote in the Senate that was the first step in repealing ObamaCare? I never understood it, but this is what it was all about. From Michale Hiltzik in The Los Angeles Times before the  vote:
More than political risk stands in the way. Numerous provisions of the Affordable Care Act are subject to filibuster in the Senate, which the GOP doesn’t have 60 votes to avoid. According to healthcare expert Timothy Jost, an emeritus law professor at Washington and Lee University, those may be safe from repeal. As it happens, they include many consumer-protection reforms that are very popular, including the ban on exclusions or higher premiums for preexisting conditions, and caps on annual and lifetime benefits.
The Senate voted to end filibusters on any part of ObamaCare -- at least, again, that's how I  understand it. Could be wrong.

Later: see first comment. A reader explains it in less than a paragraph. Much appreciated.

Monday, January 2, 2017

Scorecard -- Top Ten Predictions For 2016 (Last Year) -- RBN Energy -- January 2, 2017

Natural gas: Arctic blast, huge draw, and prices falling. What gives? Richard Zeits over at SeekingAlpha

RBN EnergyRBN Energy takes a look at its 2016 "prognostications" and evaluates how well they did.

Active rigs:


1/2/201701/02/201601/02/201501/02/201401/02/2013
Active Rigs3960171183183

For those interested in the Bakken, nothing that follows has anything to do with the Bakken. 

I think it's time for waffles. And another pajama day here in north Texas. Cold, wet, dark, loud.

By the way, speaking of waffles, we were introduced to the Waffle House phenomenon when we returned to the United States following a 13-year tour of Europe and Asia, courtesy of the United States Air Force.

We thought moving back to the states after being gone for thirteen years was going to be a shock. We had lost a decade of US "culture." I am still catching up to all the music that hit the charts from 1984 to 1997. But our return was less than a shock than it could have been. Our first stateside assignment after two years in Turkey was Alabama. Our teenage daughters (and my wife, for that matter) noted a lot of similarities between Turkey (the country) and Alabama (one of the 57 states).

Our biggest shock, and I think that's the correct word, was Waffle House. If you northerners have not had the chance to experience the Waffle House experience you are in for quite a treat. Even the Coen brothers were taken aback by the experience (video clip not shown due to language).

Waffle House is ubiquitous in the Deep South, but not as many here in north Texas. I am aware of two (and I assume there are many, many more). One is north of Ft Worth, near the Texas Motor Speedway (which seems fitting). The other, I keep forgetting, except I noted it yesterday when bicycling, is just down the hill from our nearby Wal-Mart.

Speaking of Wal-Mart. A lot of folks, me included, have problems with some  refugees coming to America wearing their native dress, suggesting there is little interest by some to become part of the American culture (which might be understandable). After seeing some of the body shapes and "un-dress" in Wal-Mart, I'm beginning to think the US would be well served if a certain segment of the population would start wearing the abaya. Just saying.

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Too Big To Merge

Although the Washington Post slanted the story a different way, the fact is the merger between Blockbuster video and Hollywood Video was nixed by acknowledgement that the US government would probably not allow it based on anti-competition (monopoly) grounds.

I was always quite surprised that Cabela's thought it could buy Bass Pro Shops. Can anyone name any other national hunting and fishing mega-retail that can possibly come close to what Cabela's or Bass Pro Shops offer?

It turns out the FTC is taking a "second look."

******************************
Last "Man" Standing

I sent this in an e-mail to a reader, with some slight editing. It's not ready for prime time, but I want to post it before I forget it:
It looks like the GOP House is serious about ObamaCare being first thing on their agenda.

It will be fascinating to watch. If they can kill it, regardless of what health insurance looks like in is place, the ONLY thing that Obama has for a legacy is gone. The textbooks will NOT have one PROGRAM that they can point to that Obama accomplished in his administration (that lasted).

I still think the GOP runs huge risks on this, but if they get this behind them within the first six months, the public might forget, but if this drags on and whatever replaces it is even worse, the media will have a field day. As it is, the media is going to be all over this.

The good news: I don't think anyone with any money or power supports ObamaCare. The health care industry does not support it; neither Trump nor 50%-plus of Congress supports it, and I doubt Schumer wants to stake his career on an Obama program. Pelosi may be the last "man" standing.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Retail Gasoline On East Coast 6 Cents Lower Than National Average -- Colonial Gasoline Pipeline Back On-Line After Spill / Interruption - November 8, 2016

All that anxiety about the Colonial Pipeline gasoline spill and interruption? Never mind:
Gasoline is expected to reach as far north as Charlotte, North Carolina within a day of Line 1's restart. Gasoline shipments on Colonial's system are expected to reach as far north as Baltimore, Maryland, by Tuesday and to reach their northern terminus in Linden, New Jersey, near New York Harbor, by Wednesday.
EIA's weekly retail price for regular gasoline for the Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) was $2.17/g as of Monday, November 7, virtually unchanged from the previous week, and 6 cents/g below the national average. -- EIA


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The Tesla Page

We drove through Prum, Germany, many times when we were stationed at Bitburg Air Base many decades ago. Sleepy little town. I'm not sure why we visited Prum except that we had friends in the area. Link here.
In the midst of seeking investor approval for a merger with SolarCity Corp., Tesla made a surprise announcement that it’s acquiring a small German engineering firm to help automate and accelerate production at its factories.
The carmaker led by tech industrialist Elon Musk said in a blog post today that it plans to buy Grohmann Engineering, based in Prüm, Germany, and rename it Tesla Grohmann Automation.
The firm, led by founder Klaus Grohmann, specializes in highly automated manufacturing techniques and will help Tesla fulfill Musk’s goal of designing the “machine that builds the machine,” his vision of advanced vehicle production that’s a step change from current conventions.
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The Apple Page

Ireland will formally appeal that $14 billion Apple tax ruling this week. Link here.
Apple previously said it is "confident" the ruling "will be overturned" by European courts, but noted the process is "likely to take several years."
Apple said it has "provisioned several billion dollars for the U.S. for payment," but it does not expect any near-term impact on its financial results.
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The Atmospheric CO2 Page

Link here. Not much movement in the big scheme of things. Fortunately.
  • October, 2016: 401.57 (an increase of 0.8% yoy FWIW). 
  • September, 2016: 401.01
  • August, 2016: 402.24
  • July, 2016: 404.39
  • May, 2016: 407.70
  • April, 2016: 407.57
  • March, 2016: 404.83
  • February, 2016:  404.16
  • January, 2016: 402.52 
  • October, 2015: 398.29

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Missing Persons Page

Whatever happened to Jon Gruber?


Whatever happened to Randolph Scott?

Whatever happened to Randolph Scott, Statler Bros